Technological Institute of the Philippines

CALCULATION OF STATISTICAL PROJECTION

Statistical forecasting implies the use of statistics based on historical demand and
supply data to project what could happen out in the future. The following mathematical
method will used in order to choose the projection method.

1. Arithmetic Straight-Line Method (ASLM)

Arithmetic straight-line method assumes that annual increase in the succeeding
years will be the same or increase in present is diminish.

FORMULA: Where:

𝒀𝒄 = 𝒂 + (𝒀𝒊 − 𝟏) Yc = Initial Value (1st year)

YN = Final Value (Last year)

𝒀𝑵 − 𝒀𝒄 Yi = Value for the year past

𝒂=
𝑵−𝟏
N = Number of Years

2. ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC CURVE METHOD (AGCM)

Arithmetic geometric curve method assumes that the rate of increase in the
projected values is constant yet the amount of change keeps on increasing.

FORMULA: Where:

𝒀𝒊 + 𝟏 Yi + 1 = Value for the year ahead

𝒀𝒄 =
𝟏+𝒓
r = Average rate of increases

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 Technological Institute of the Philippines

3. STATISTICAL STRAIGHT-LINE METHOD (SSLM)

Statistical straight-line method assumes that change in the figure is unvarying
while the change in percentage of the data for the year is decreasing.

FORMULA: Where:

σ𝒀 σ𝑿
𝒂= −𝒃ቆ ቇ
𝒏 𝒏
𝒀𝒄 = 𝒂 + 𝒃𝑿 𝒏 σ 𝑿𝒀 − σ 𝑿 σ 𝒀
𝒃= 𝟐
𝒏 σ 𝑿𝟐 − (σ 𝑿)

4. STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE METHOD (SPCM)

Statistical parabolic curve assumes the modification in the predicted values may
be decreasing or increasing prior to the percentage change of the values for the prior year.

FORMULA: Where:

(σ 𝑿)𝟒 (σ 𝒀) − (σ 𝑿)𝟐 (σ 𝑿𝟐 𝒀)
𝒂=
𝟒 𝟐 𝟐
𝒏(σ 𝑿) − ൫σ 𝑿 ൯

𝒀𝒄 = 𝒂 + 𝒃𝑿 + 𝒄𝑿𝟐 σ 𝑿𝒀
𝒃=
σ 𝑿𝟐
𝟐 𝟐
𝒏൫σ 𝑿 𝒀൯ − (σ 𝑿 )(σ 𝒀)
𝒄=
𝟒 𝟐 𝟐
𝒏(σ 𝑿) − ൫σ 𝑿 ൯

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