Climate Dynamics

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4028-8

ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

Supari1,2 · Fredolin Tangang1,3   · Ester Salimun1 · Edvin Aldrian4 · Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan5 · Liew Juneng1

Received: 22 August 2017 / Accepted: 1 December 2017

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2017

Abstract
This paper provides a detailed description of how ENSO events affect seasonal and extreme precipitation over Indonesia.
Daily precipitation data from 97 stations across Indonesia covering the period from 1981 to 2012 were used to investigate
the effects of El Niño and La Niña on extreme precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency and duration, as
defined based on a subset of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Although anomalous
signals in these three indices were consistent with those of total rainfall, anomalies in the duration of extremes [i.e., consecu-
tive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD)] were much more robust. El Niño impacts were particularly promi-
nent during June–July–August (JJA) and September–October–November (SON), when anomalously dry conditions were
experienced throughout the country. However, from SON, a wet anomaly appeared over northern Sumatra, later expanding
eastward during December–January–February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM), creating contrasting conditions of
wet in the west and dry in the east. We attribute this apparent eastward expansion of a wet anomaly during El Niño progres-
sion to the equatorial convergence of two anti-cyclonic circulations, one residing north of the equator and the other south
of the equator. These anti-cyclonic circulations strengthen and weaken according to seasonal changes and their coupling
with regional seas, hence shaping moisture transport and convergence. During La Niña events, the eastward expansion of
an opposite (i.e., dry) anomaly was also present but less prominent than that of El Niño. We attribute this to differences in
regional ocean—atmosphere coupling, which result in the contrasting seasonal evolution of the two corresponding anoma-
lous cyclonic circulations and in turn suggests the strong nonlinearity of El Niño and La Niña responses over the Maritime
Continent. Based on the seasonal behaviour of anomalous CDD and CWD, we propose five sub-divisions of the Indonesian
region for both El Niño and La Niña.

Keywords  Indonesia · Seasonal rainfall · Extremes · ENSO

1 Introduction

Indonesia occupies almost 70% of the Maritime Continent

* Fredolin Tangang
tangang@ukm.edu.my; ftangang@gmail.com
(see Fig. 1), a region whose inter-annual climate variabil-
ity is modulated predominantly by the El Niño—Southern
1
School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Oscillation (ENSO) (e.g. Hackert and Hastenrath 1986;
Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Kirono et al. 1999; Hamada et al. 2002; Hendon 2003).
Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
Surface warming (cooling) in the central and eastern tropi-
2
Center for Climate Change Information, Indonesia Agency cal Pacific Ocean together with cooling (warming) in Indo-
for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG),
Jakarta, Indonesia
nesian waters associated with the El Niño (La Niña) phe-
3
nomenon weakens (strengthens) the Walker Circulation
Ramkhamhaeng University Center of Regional
Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU‑CORE),
and hence affects the climate over Indonesia (e.g. Hendon
Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand 2003). However, changes in the regional circulation influ-
4
Department of UPTHB, Indonesia Agency
ence not only mean rainfall but also extreme precipitation
for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), events. Indonesia is exposed to both extreme droughts and
Jakarta, Indonesia flooding related to ENSO (e.g. Juneng and Tangang 2005;
5
Center for R&D, Indonesia Agency for Meteorology Aldrian et al. 2006; Tangang et al. 2010; Lestari et al. 2016),
Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia

13
Vol.:(0123456789)

12 oN
SOUTH CHINA SEA
o
6 N
Kalimantan
0o
Sumatra
6oS
Java
12 oS
INDIAN OCEAN
o
18 S
100oE 110oE
Fig. 1  Spatial distribution of the 97 stations analysed in this study (blue dots). Text on the map shows the names of the main islands
which have the potential to exert huge economic losses and
have serious social implications for the national population
of more than 250 million. During the prolonged drought
and worst haze episode of the 1997/98 El Niño, Indone-
sia suffered an estimated economic loss of USD3.7 bil-
lion, a figure much higher than that experienced by both
Malaysia (~ USD321 million) and Singapore (~ USD69.3—
USD78.8 million) (Hon 1999; Ruitenbeek 1999; Tangang
et al. 2010). D’Arrigo and Wilson (2008) reported that rice
production on Java Island fell drastically during the 1997/98
El Niño, while in Sumatra and Kalimantan, the increase
in the number of dry days associated with El Niño led to
favourable conditions for large-scale forest fire occurrence
(Glover and Jessup 2006; Harrison and Page 2009; Tangang
et al. 2010; Field et al. 2016; Kusumaningtyas and Aldrian
2016). The condition and severity of drought, forest fires
and haze recorded during the 2015/2016 El Niño appeared
to match that of the 1997/98 El Niño (e.g. Jacox et al. 2016),
but the ultimate overall economic cost of the former event on
Indonesia will likely be much higher, at around USD16 bil-
lion (Glauber et al. 2016).
The association between Indonesian rainfall and ENSO
has been investigated in numerous studies. Kirono et al.
(1999) documented the critical effects of the 1997/1998 El
Niño, which resulted in a drastic reduction in rainfall over
the country to less than the 10th percentile of the 48-year
13
Supari et al.
PACIFIC OCEAN
Papua
Maluku
Sulawesi
Nusa Tenggara
AUSTRALIA
120oE 130oE 140oE
monthly rainfall time series, with some stations record-
ing their lowest value ever. Haylock and McBride (2001)
reported that the correlation between station rainfall and the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is high across most of the
region during September–October–November (SON), but
not during December–January–February (DJF). In a more
recent study, As-syakur et al. (2014) found similar results
using satellite data. Hamada et al. (2002) noted the tendency
of delayed (earlier) rainy season onset compared to existing
climatology during El Niño (La Niña) years, particularly at
stations in south-eastern Indonesia. Hendon (2003) found
that rainfall anomalies during the dry season over Indone-
sia are spatially coherent and strongly correlated with SST
variability in the Pacific Basin. Furthermore, the study also
noted that drought conditions during El Niño are induced by
the cooling of SSTs in Indonesian waters and the weakening
of the Walker Circulation. Aldrian and Dwi Susanto (2003)
subdivided Indonesia into three distinct climate sub-regions,
observing that rainfall over the monsoonal regime (region A,
the southern part of the country) and anti-monsoonal regime
(region C, the eastern part of the country) related signifi-
cantly to ENSO. Indonesian rainfall is also more sensitive to
El Niño than to La Niña events (Aldrian et al. 2003, 2006).
Despite the considerable impact of weather and climate
extremes, fewer studies have investigated ENSO-induced
extremes around the globe than mean and seasonal climate.
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
Alexander et al. (2009) found a link between global precipi-
tation extremes and ENSO, but the effects were not spatially
coherent; each region has its own characteristics and should
thus be investigated individually. Kenyon and Hegerl (2010)
also showed that intensity of precipitation extremes is sig-
nificantly related with ENSO, particularly over India, Africa,
South America, the Pacific Rim, North America and Europe.
Over Indonesia, the study found that during the dry season
(May–October) of El Niño years, in addition to the signifi-
cant relationship with mean rainfall, the intensity of precipi-
tation extremes also decreases considerably. However, no
significant relationship was recorded during the following
wet season (November–April).
Regionally, some studies have linked the variability of
precipitation extremes with ENSO. Over the USA, extreme
winter precipitation in the south-west region showed posi-
tive anomalies during El Niño events, while that in the
Pacific northwest and Midwest exhibited negative anomalies
(Meehl et al. 2007). Grimm and Tedeschi (2009) reported
that changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events over
South America during ENSO years were much more exten-
sive than changes in total monthly rainfall. ENSO is also
known to have a significant relationship with precipitation
extremes over the Philippines, with El Niño conditions lead-
ing to a decrease in the median intensity of extreme wet rain-
fall (Villafuerte et al. 2014b). Furthermore, Villafuerte and
Matsumoto (2015) discovered that during July–September,
extreme wet rainfall events have a lower (higher) probabil-
ity of occurrence over the entire Maritime Continent during
an El Niño (La Niña) year. The latter study also found that
the anomaly relationship migrates northward to Indochina
and the Philippines in October–December, before retreat-
ing southward in January–March of the following year.
Recently, Lestari et al. (2016) reported that ENSO events
strongly influence inter-annual precipitation extremes, with,
for instance, the number of dry days tending to increase by
more than 2 months during El Niño compared to La Niña
years over eastern parts of Indonesia. Tangang et al. (2017)
provided a comprehensive description of El Niño and La
Niña modulation of extreme precipitation events over
Malaysia, with the impacts generally coherent with that on
total precipitation.
Despite the availability of numerous papers examin-
ing ENSO-related anomalous precipitation conditions in
Indonesia, there remains a clear lack of studies that link the
seasonal evolution of mean precipitation with wet and dry
extremes. Some authors have also used a single averaged
precipitation index, which can obscure the spatial variation
of anomalies over the vast region of Indonesia (e.g. Hendon
2003). Located in the rising branch of the Walker Circulation
and in a monsoon-dominated region, ENSO-related anoma-
lous signals in Indonesia are largely influenced by seasonal
regional atmosphere—ocean interaction (e.g. Lau and Nath
2003; Wang et al. 2003; Juneng and Tangang 2005). This is
corroborated by the findings of a recent work carried out by
Tangang et al. (2017), who showed that regional patterns of
anomalous sea surface temperatures and circulations in the
Maritime Continent largely modulate the spatial variability
of extreme precipitation events in Malaysia. Motivated by
the latter work, the present study focuses on the seasonal
evolution of extreme wet and dry events, as well as the roles
of ENSO remote forcing and regional—ocean interaction
over Indonesia. Together with that of Tangang et al. (2017),
this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding
of how ENSO and regional atmosphere—ocean interaction
modulate extreme precipitation in the Maritime Continent.
2 Data and methods
The present study utilises the same observed daily precipi-
tation dataset used in Supari et al. (2017), with nine addi-
tional stations accounting for a final total of 97 stations scat-
tered throughout Indonesia (Fig. 1). In addition, the same
quality control measures described in Supari et al. (2017)
were applied, including checking for gross error, missing
values, outliers and overall data homogeneity. The period
1981–2012 was selected to maximise the number of stations
with complete data. We also calculated a subset of the Expert
Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)
extreme precipitation indices that indicate the duration, fre-
quency and intensity of rainfall extremes. The selected indi-
ces included total seasonal rainfall (PRCPTOT), consecutive
dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), frequency of
days with thresholds of 50 mm (R50mm) and highest 1-day
rainfall accumulation (RX1day). Brief information regarding
these indices is shown in Table 1; a more detailed descrip-
tion can be found in Zhang et al. (2011). In the current study,
the extreme indices were calculated seasonally for boreal
summer, autumn, winter and spring, which correspond to
the months of June–July–August (JJA), September–Octo-
ber–November (SON), December–January–February (DJF)
and March–April–May (MAM), respectively.
As employed by various other authors, we also carried out
composite analysis to assess the impact of ENSO over Indo-
nesia (Pozo-Vazquez et al. 2001; Alexander et al. 2002; Yuan
2004; Juneng and Tangang 2005; Zhang et al. 2010; Salimun
et al. 2014; Shaman 2014; Villafuerte et al. 2014a; Tangang
et al. 2017). This technique offers a number of advantages,
such as showing a clear relationship between two variables
(Ronchail et al. 2002), ease of interpreting close agreement
with correlation methods (Okoola 1999) and consistency
with the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method
(Juneng and Tangang 2005). Composites were obtained by
calculating the anomalies of extreme indices during El Niño
and La Niña years relative to neutral years. Thus, in this
13

Table 1  List of ETCCDI climate extreme indices used in this study
Index Indicator name
PRCPTOT Seasonal total precipitation
CDD Consecutive dry days
CWD Consecutive wet days
R50mm Number of extremely heavy precipitation
days
RX1day Max 1-day precipitation amount
context, neutral years were regarded as a ‘normal’ period.
Moreover, we expressed anomalies as the percentage of
that experienced in normal years to enable a comparison
of ENSO impact among indices, a similar approach to that
employed by, for example, Villafuerte et al. (2014a) and
Tangang et al. (2017).
It is well known that the life cycle of an ENSO event
normally covers a period of two consecutive years, with the
first year being the developing year (usually denoted as year
‘0’) and the second the decaying year (usually referred as
year ‘1’). Most ENSO events commence sometime between
March and September of the developing year and end in
February–March of the decaying year (Trenberth 1997).
However, for consistency, we computed composites for
JJA(0) and SON(0) of the developing year, DJF(0/1) at the
end of the developing year and start of the decaying year,
and MAM(1) of the decaying year. For convenience, the
digits ‘0’ and ‘1’ are omitted in the remainder of the paper.
For example, for the 1997/1998 El Niño event, the seasons
considered were JJA (1997), SON (1997), DJF (1997/1998)
and MAM (1998).
The list of ENSO years shown in Table 2 was derived
based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) developed by the
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NCEP NOAA (avail-
able at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_
monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml). The ONI index
was calculated using 3 months running mean of anomaly
of the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature
Table 2  El Niño and La Niña Phase
years during the period 1981–
2012 based on ONI data El Niño
La Niña
13
Supari et al.
Definition Unit
Seasonal rainfall total on wet days (RR ≥ 1 mm) mm
Maximum number of consecutive days with RR < 1 mm days
Maximum number of consecutive days with RR ≥ 1 mm days
Seasonal count of days when rainfall ≥ 50 mm days
Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation mm
Version 5 (ERSST.v5; Huang et  al. 2017) of the Niño
3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W). The El Niño (La Niña)
was defined to occur when ONI reaches at least + 0.5 °C
(− 0.5 °C). As shown in Table 2, ENSO years may differ
for each season, depending on the ONI value. Periods not
identified as El Niño or La Niña years were considered as
neutral years. To understand the role of regional atmos-
phere–ocean interaction, we also used the ERSSTv5 data
for the composite analysis of SSTs during ENSO events.
This dataset was obtained from the NOAA/OAR/ESRL
PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
psd/, available at 2.0° × 2.0° spatial resolution). In addi-
tion, we also computed seasonal moisture transport and
divergence based on the National Centers for Environmen-
tal Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCEP/NCAR) 2.5° × 2.5° reanalysis product (Kalnay
et al. 1996). The significance of ENSO-related anomalies
was evaluated using a Monte Carlo technique (e.g. Cur-
tis et al. 2007; Li et al. 2011; Villafuerte and Matsumoto
2015; Tangang et  al. 2017). For this purpose, extreme
precipitation indices during neutral years were resampled
for each season based on the number of series members
in the given season. This step was repeated 1000 times to
produce 1000 random series of synthetic data. The mean
of each these random series was then calculated to pro-
vide the climatological value of indices. From these 1000
mean values, the thresholds of the 5th and 95th percentiles
were calculated, with the significance of ENSO impact
Season Years
JJA 1982, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2009
SON 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009
DJF 1982/83, 1986/87, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95, 1997/98,
2002/03, 2004/05, 2006/07, 2009/10
MAM 1982, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2005, 2010
JJA 1988, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2010
SON 1984, 1988, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2007, 2010, 2011
DJF 1984/85, 1988/89, 1995/96, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2000/01,
2007/08, 2010/11, 2011/12
MAM 1985, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
thus established if the mean of indices during ENSO years
fell outside of this range.
3 Results
3.1 ENSO modulation of Indonesian seasonal
rainfall
During boreal summer (JJA) in El Niño years, statistically
significant negative anomalies of seasonal precipitation
(PRCPTOT) were observed at the majority of stations across
Indonesia, demonstrating the prominent influence of El Niño
impact (Fig. 2a). Anomalous dry conditions were spatially
coherent over the country, with 88% of stations showing sig-
nificant negative anomalies. Most stations registered anoma-
lies with magnitudes greater than 40% relative to neutral
years. Over the southern part of the country, including Java,
Bali and Nusa Tenggara, the situation was even more detri-
mental, with many stations recording negative anomalies of
magnitude greater than 70%. During SON, dry conditions
persisted throughout the country, with the distribution pat-
tern of affected stations and the severity of rainfall reduction
remaining the same and closely resembling that observed
in JJA (Fig. 2b). However, the number of stations showing
Fig. 2  Composite analysis of seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT) in El Niño years for JJA (a), SON (b), DJF (c) and MAM (d). Upward (down-
ward) triangles indicate an increase (reduction) in PRCPTOT; filled triangles denote a significant anomaly at 95%
a significant negative anomaly was higher than that in JJA,
at 90%.
The severity of El Niño-induced dry conditions was
reduced once the event reached the peak and decay phases
in DJF and MAM, respectively. Responses during these
seasons were markedly different, with the dry conditions
much less prominent. During DJF, whereas the eastern part
of the country, including eastern Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara,
Sulawesi and Maluku, continued to experience anomalously
dry conditions (Fig. 2c), the western side of the country,
particularly over the central parts of Sumatra and western
Kalimantan, were characterised by wet conditions. The
country thus appears to be divided into two regions with dis-
tinct responses, i.e., anomalously dry conditions in the east
and wet conditions in the west. Hence, if a single index of
anomalous rainfall were to be used for the whole country, it
is possible that no apparent impact would be detected during
this season, as the opposite anomalies in the west and east
may cancel each other out. In fact, earlier studies conducted
by Haylock and McBride (2001) and Hendon (2003) found
that the single Indonesian rainfall anomaly index was less
correlated during the wet season with SST variations in the
Pacific Basin, suggesting a less prominent ENSO impact
during DJF. However, we suggest that such a weak relation-
ship may have resulted from the cancelation of the opposite
13

anomalies (i.e., wet in the west and dry in the east) due to
the use of a single index.
The distribution pattern of stations with dry and wet
anomalies during MAM was similar to that observed dur-
ing DJF (Fig. 2d). Interestingly, the area of wet anomalies
expanded eastward, with many stations on Java showing a
significant such anomaly. However, further eastward in Nusa
Tenggara, significantly dry conditions persisted at most sta-
tions. In Kalimantan, contrasting conditions of wet anoma-
lies in the west and dry in the east were observed. Finally,
Sulawesi tended to be drier, while further east in Maluku and
Papua a mixed response of significant wet and dry anomalies
were recorded. In contrast to JJA and SON, mixed responses
were observed during DJF and MAM in some areas includ-
ing those over Java where positive anomalies dominate but
some stations registered an opposite sign. This heterogene-
ous response could be due to influences of local processes,
e.g. diurnal cycle and effect of topography (Qian et al. 2010).
Overall, very prominent anomalously dry conditions were
recorded across Indonesia during El Niño developmental
phases (JJA and SON). During these two seasons, the coun-
try suffered severe and prolonged drought, increasing the
risk of large-scale forest fires and serious haze episodes
(e.g. Tangang et al. 2010). However, as the El Niño event
reached its peak, dry conditions weakened and anomalously
wet conditions began to appear in the western part of the
Fig. 3  As in Fig. 2 except for seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT) in La Niña years
13
Supari et al.
country. During MAM the area of wet anomalies expanded
eastward to reach Papua, although over Maluku and Papua
itself a mixed response of dry and wet anomalies prevailed.
In fact, the changes can be seen as an eastward expansion of
wet conditions and an eastward retreat of the dry anomaly,
as the El Niño event evolved from the peak to the decaying
phase. Despite the publishing of many investigations into
the relationship between Indonesian rainfall and ENSO, this
apparent eastward expansion of El Niño-induced wet anoma-
lies has not been highlighted and discussed previously.
Generally, La Niña-induced impacts on PRCPTOT across
Indonesia can be viewed as opposite to those of El Niño
(Fig. 3). Nevertheless, there are some notable differences
that are worth discussing. During JJA in La Niña years, the
country was dominated by anomalously wet conditions of
similar severity to those of El Niño but with the opposite
polarity (Fig. 3a). Around 69% stations across the country
experienced significant wet anomalies of magnitude 40%
greater than in neutral years (Fig. 3a). However, the spatial
pattern of La Niña impact during SON is markedly different
from that of El Niño (Fig. 3b). While the prominent El Niño-
induced dry conditions in JJA continued to persist across the
country in SON, the same pattern did not occur in La Niña.
During SON of La Niña events, dry anomalies began to
appear in western Indonesia, creating dry conditions in the
west and wet in the east. Compared to that observed during
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
JJA, the impact of La Niña during SON in Sumatra and west
Kalimantan was generally the opposite (Fig. 3b), with the
appearance of opposite anomalies in these two regions thus
occurring a season earlier during La Niña than during El
Niño events.
During DJF, most stations in the east of the country, espe-
cially at Sulawesi and Maluku, continued to record signifi-
cant wet anomalies (Fig. 3c). However, the eastward expan-
sion of the dry anomaly in the west continued, with some
stations on Sumatra and Java experiencing significantly dry
conditions. The appearance of such conditions over western
parts of Indonesia during DJF is rather interesting, as the
general perception of La Niña events has generally been one
of causing wet anomalies throughout the country. Dry condi-
tions also extended eastward over Nusa Tenggara, although
not to a significant degree.
In the following season (MAM), the dry anomaly over the
western region strengthened (Fig. 3d). In Sumatra, west and
central Java and Kalimantan, most stations that experienced
non-significant dry anomalies during DJF were now signifi-
cantly impacted. Interestingly, Bali and Nusa Tenggara, hav-
ing been subjected to dry conditions in DJF, recorded a reap-
pearance of the wet conditions that had earlier dominated the
region in SON. In the north-east of the country, including
northern and southern Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua, anoma-
lously wet conditions persisted, as they had since the begin-
ning of the La Niña event. Similar to that observed during
El Niño, the eastward propagation of the dry anomaly also
occurred during La Niña, creating dry conditions in the west
and wet in the east during SON, DJF and MAM. However,
unlike the pattern recorded during El Niño events, during
La Niña the eastward expansion of the dry anomaly was
initiated a season earlier, i.e., in SON. In addition, whereas
the eastward progression of the wet anomaly reached the
most eastern region of the country during El Niño events,
i.e., Papua, anomalously dry conditions were recorded only
as far east as Sulawesi during La Niña.
3.2 Anomalous patterns of precipitation extremes:
duration
To investigate the anomalous duration of precipitation
extremes associated with ENSO over Indonesia and their
relationship with that of total rainfall, we employed two dif-
ferent indices, CDD and CWD, representing the duration of
extreme dry and wet conditions, respectively. Analysis of
PRCPTOT data revealed that El Niño events are generally
related to dry conditions and La Niña events to wet con-
ditions, although the appearance of the opposite anomaly
occurs in the western part of the country a season or two
after each event commences. Thus, we analysed values of the
CDD index to represent the dry spells experienced during
El Niño events and those of the CWD index to capture the
wet spells occurring during La Niña events (e.g. Tangang
et al. 2017).
During JJA and SON of El Niño years, the behaviour of
CDD was generally consistent with that of seasonal rain-
fall (Fig. 4a, b), with a clear tendency toward drier than
normal conditions during El Niño years. Almost the entire
country experienced significant anomalously dry conditions,
including 72 and 89 stations (out of 97) in JJA and SON,
respectively (Fig. 4a, b). During SON, 79 stations recorded a
dry anomaly with a magnitude of more than 40% relative to
neutral years, indicating a large impact of El Niño on CDD.
This response is nearly double that observed for seasonal
rainfall (47 stations with such anomalies), suggesting that,
in terms of El Niño impact, CDD is more sensitive than
PRCPTOT. Nevertheless, the conditions depicted by CDD
values are largely consistent and tend to follow those of the
PRCPTOT index.
Interestingly, three stations in the northern part of Suma-
tra recorded an opposite anomaly, i.e., a significant wet
anomaly of CDD during SON (Fig. 4b). The area experi-
encing anomalously wet conditions expanded eastward in
DJF and MAM, creating a clear contrast between wet con-
ditions in the west and dry conditions in the east, similar to
that observed in the PRCPTOT data (Fig. 4c, d). In Sumatra
and Kalimantan, many stations experienced wet conditions
during DJF, with ten stations recording significant anoma-
lies. In contrast, the eastern part of the country (including
Java, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua) was still
dominated by anomalously dry conditions, with 38 stations
registering a significant dry anomaly. During MAM, a larger
number of stations experienced a significant wet anomaly;
such conditions were particularly prevalent in Sumatra, Java,
Nusa Tenggara and west Kalimantan, with significantly
anomalous dry conditions recorded in eastern parts of Kali-
mantan, Sulawesi and Maluku (Fig. 4d).
Overall, the evolution of an El Niño-induced anomalous
CDD signal resembled that recorded in PRCPTOT data,
with the eastward propagation of anomalously wet con-
ditions taking place in DJF and MAM. Interestingly, the
northern part of Sulawesi and Maluku, known as the anti-
monsoonal region (Aldrian and Dwi Susanto 2003), expe-
rienced a significant dry anomaly in all seasons during El
Niño years, indicating the long duration of El Niño impact
in this region. This also suggests that the influence of the
mechanism that caused the wet anomaly to appear in the
west and later expand eastward, did not reach far enough to
affect the Sulawesi and Maluku areas.
Similar to that of El Niño events, La Niña influence on
CWD was prominent in JJA, with significant increases
recorded throughout the country (Fig. 5a). However, during
SON, the increases over Sumatra and the western part of
the country were largely not significant; at some stations a
dry anomaly was recorded, with a few stations experiencing
13
 Supari et al.

Fig. 4  As in Fig. 2 except for consecutive dry days (CDD) in El Niño years

Fig. 5  As in Fig. 2 except for consecutive wet days (CWD) in La Niña years

13
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
a significant reduction in CWD (Fig. 5b). In contrast, the
dominance of a significant wet anomaly in CWD persisted
in the central-eastern region, including Java Island, eastern
Borneo, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi and Maluku. During the
following two seasons of DJF and MAM, the dry anomaly
strengthened in the western part of the country while the wet
anomaly remained in the east, creating a clear contrasting
pattern of a mostly significant reduction in CWD in the west
and a significant increase in the east (Fig. 5c, d). Over Bali
and Nusa Tenggara, dry conditions were recorded during
DJF, but in MAM the significant wet anomaly was reinforced
(Fig. 5d). Overall, the anomalous conditions as indicated in
CWD data throughout La Niña evolution are consistent with
those observed in PRCPTOT. The eastward progression of
the dry anomaly was also apparent, with a clear contrast
between anomalously dry conditions in the west and wet in
the east, especially during MAM. As with PRCPTOT data,
the north-east of the country continued to experience a wet
CWD anomaly throughout the La Niña period.
3.3 Anomalous patterns of precipitation extremes:
frequency
We also analysed the impact of ENSO on the frequency
of extremely heavy precipitation days (R50mm, Fig. 6).
For all seasons, the spatial pattern of the impact of both
Fig. 6  As in Fig. 2 except for frequency of extremely heavy precipitation days (R50mm) in El Niño years
El Niño and La Niña events on R50mm days appeared
generally consistent with that of PRCPTOT. For example,
during JJA and SON in El Niño years, a dry anomaly in
R50mm data was prominent across the country (Fig. 6a,
b) and resembled that of PRCPTOT, with significantly dry
conditions observed at 56 and 61% of stations during the
two seasons, respectively. Again similar to PRCPTOT, sig-
nificant wet anomalies appeared in the west during DJF
and expanded eastward during MAM (Fig. 6c, d). Thus,
whereas a prominent contrast between wet conditions in
the west and dry conditions in the east of the country was
recorded in DJF, this was not the case in MAM.
During La Niña years, the impact of ENSO on R50mm
was also consistent with that on PRCPTOT. In JJA, most
stations (66%) experienced a wet anomaly, with 47% of
these stations recording a significant impact (Fig. 7a).
Also consistent with PRCPTOT data, significantly dry
RM50mm anomalies appeared in the west of the country
during SON and expanded eastward during DJF (Fig. 7b,
c). In MAM, the dry anomalies in the west were enhanced,
while in the east the wet anomalies were also reinforced,
creating a clear contrast between dry conditions in the
west and wet in the east (Fig. 7d). Furthermore, the mag-
nitude of changes in both dry and wet R50mm anomalies
was greater than those recorded in PRCPTOT.
13

Fig. 7  As in Fig. 2 except for frequency of extremely heavy precipitation days (R50mm) in La Niña years
3.4 Anomalous patterns of Precipitation Extremes:
Intensity
Figure 8 displays seasonal composite maps of RX1day, an
indicator of the intensity of precipitation extremes, during El
Niño years. As with PRCPTOT, El Niño-associated changes
in this index were prominent in JJA and SON, with ~ 60%
of stations recording significant dry anomalies (Fig. 8a, b)
and a much smaller number significant wet anomalies. How-
ever, conditions during DJF were different, with a mixed
response of wet and dry anomalies prevailing. Unlike PRCP-
TOT, where wet anomalies appeared only in the west and
dry anomalies dominated in the east, for RX1day the wet
anomalies extended to the east, creating a mixed distribution
of dry and wet anomalies throughout the country (Fig. 8c).
Interestingly, some areas in the eastern region, e.g. Sulawesi,
Ambon and Maluku, experienced dry conditions in terms of
PRCPTOT but showed a significant increase in the inten-
sity of extreme precipitation events. The mixed dry and wet
responses in RX1day data throughout the country continued
until the following season of MAM (Fig. 8d). Hence, the
distribution of anomalous RX1day values was less coherent
than that of PRCPTOT.
During La Niña years, anomalous increases in RX1day
values extended throughout the country during JJA (Fig. 9a).
However, unlike PRCPTOT, stations experiencing a
13
Supari et al.
decrease in RX1day were also spread throughout the coun-
try—although most anomalies were not significant. Dur-
ing SON and DJF, anomalous signals in RX1day data were
fairly consistent with those of PRCPTOT, with significant
dry anomalies recorded at some stations in the west of the
country (Fig. 9b, c). These dry anomalies then strengthened
during MAM and extended to the central region (Fig. 9d),
although eastern parts remained wet. Overall, changes in
RX1day associated with La Niña were largely consistent
with those of PRCPTOT.
3.5 Related changes in vertical motion, anomalous
regional circulation and sea surface
temperatures
During JJA in El Niño years, the entire MC with the excep-
tion of the Philippines was dominated by sinking motions,
especially eastern parts of Indonesia (Sulawesi, Maluku and
Ambon) (Fig. 10a), where they coincided with the coldest
sea temperature anomaly in the region. As sinking motions
tend to inhibit convection, areas experiencing the former
were also associated with drying conditions, as was also
observed across Malaysia by Tangang et al. (2017). Con-
sistently, the entire region experienced positive moisture
flux divergence (MFD) in response to both strong westerly
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

Fig. 8  As in Fig. 2 except for maximum precipitation intensity per season (RX1day) in El Niño years

Fig. 9  As in Fig. 2 except for maximum precipitation intensity per season (RX1day) in La Niña years

13
 Supari et al.

(a) JJA, El Niño (e) JJA, La Niña

(b) SON, El Niño (f) SON, La Niña

(c) DJF, El Niño (g) DJF, La Niña

(d) MAM, El Niño (h) MAM, La Niña

Fig. 10  Composites of vertical velocity at 500 hPa during El Niño (left panel) and La Niña (right panel) events for each season. Dashed contours
indicate negative values; hatching indicates significant at 95%

13
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
moisture flux (MF) towards the western-central Pacific
and rather weak easterly MF towards the Indian Ocean
(Fig. 11a).
Sinking motions continued throughout the MC during El
Niño SON and strengthened over an area of coldest SSTA
stretching southwest—northeast from the southern Indian
Ocean (SIO) to the southern Philippines (Figs. 11b, 12b).
The strong sinking motion over the SIO also corresponded
well with the centre of the overlying anti-cyclonic circu-
lation (Figs. 10b, 11b). This coupled atmosphere—ocean
interaction sustained and strengthened both the anti-cyclonic
circulation and the dipole SSTA pattern observed in the
region (e.g. Wang et al. 2003; Juneng and Tangang 2005).
Strong southeasterlies along the west coast of Sumatra
caused considerable upwelling and off-shore Ekman trans-
port, resulting in prominently cold SSTA (Fig. 12b). In turn,
the strong dipole SSTA pattern also strengthened the anti-
cyclonic circulation (Wang et al. 2003).
Unlike the pattern observed during JJA, during SON
moisture was transported to the Indian Ocean by the strong
southeasterly component of the anti-cyclonic circulation
over the SIO (Fig. 11b). Interestingly, over northern Sumatra
a rising motion was indicated (with a stronger rising motion
at 850 hPa; Fig. 13b), with this region forming part of an
elongated area over the Equator stretching from about 70°E
to the north of Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia (Fig. 13b).
This area also corresponds well that of negative MFD result-
ing from the convergence of southeasterly winds of the anti-
cyclonic circulation over the SIO and easterly winds from
the southern South China Sea (Fig. 11b). The associated
wet conditions feature prominently in CDD, R50mm and
RX1day data (Figs. 4b, 6b, 8b).
During DJF in El Niño years, the dipole SSTA pattern in
the SIO region disappeared, with anomalously warm con-
ditions dominating the entire Indian Ocean, South China
Sea and north-western Pacific (WNP) (Fig. 12c). The SSTA
dipole pattern established over the north-western Pacific
and maintained the anti-cyclonic circulation, as shown in
Fig. 11c, d (e.g. Wang et al. 2003; Juneng and Tangang
2005). In conjunction with this anti-cyclonic circulation,
a sinking motion dominated the area centred over 10°N
and extending eastward from northern Borneo to the west-
ern Pacific (Figs. 10c, 13c). This area of sinking motion
also coincided with one of positive MFD (Fig. 11c) and
is consistent with the dry conditions over northern Bor-
neo highlighted in Tangang et al. (2017). The area of ris-
ing motion that encroached northern Sumatra during SON
then expanded eastward along the equator (Figs. 10c, 13c).
This expansion is consistent with that of the area of nega-
tive MFD along the equator during DJF, the latter appar-
ently due to the convergence of MF from the north as part
of the anti-cyclonic circulation over the WNP region and
strong westerly MF centred over 12–15°S (Fig. 11c). The
elongated area of sinking motions stretching from the Indian
Ocean to northern Australia coincided with this westerly MF
(Fig. 11c), which itself formed part of an anti-cyclonic circu-
lation centred over the west of north-western Australia. The
eastward expansion of the area of rising motion and negative
MFD is also consistent with the eastward expansion of wet
anomalies in seasonal and extreme rainfall. Interestingly,
whereas the south-western part of Borneo was anomalously
wet (Figs. 3c, 4c, 5c, d) the northern part was anomalously
dry (Tangang et al. 2017; their Figs. 3c, 4c, 5c, 6c), creating
a dipole pattern. This pattern of anomalous conditions was
also highlighted in Juneng and Tangang (2005; their Fig. 4c),
while Qian et al. (2013) attributed it to local processes asso-
ciated with topography and diurnal cycling. However, the
evidence provided here seems to suggest that this pattern
instead reflects large-scale features associated with ENSO.
Although the strong MFD observed in the southern
region of the MC during DJF weakened considerably dur-
ing MAM, that recorded over northern MC remained. In
fact, this area of MFD extended westward to cover the Gulf
of Thailand, Thailand, Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea
(Fig. 11d), consistent with the sinking motions observed
over these regions (Fig. 10d). However, northern Sumatra,
south-western Borneo and Papua continued to experience
positive MFD. The patterns of anomalous PRCPTOT and
extremes correspond well with the anomalous patterns of
MFD and vertical motion. Interestingly, while anomalously
wet conditions extended to Papua, the area including eastern
Borneo and northern Sulawesi (Figs. 3d, 4d) remained dry,
together with northern Borneo, as indicated in Tangang et al.
(2017; their Fig. 4c). The persistence of these dry conditions
is likely related to the southward expansion of the area of
sinking motion and positive MFD (Figs. 10d, 11d).
3.6 Regionalisation of the Indonesian region based
on anomalous responses in extremes associated
with ENSO
Aldrian and Dwi Susanto (2003) sub-divided the Indonesian
region into three sub-regions according to the characteristics
of the rainfall annual cycle. However, based on the anoma-
lous patterns of extremes presented above, such regionali-
sation may not be suitable for the investigation of rainfall
anomalies, as sub-regions with similar annual cycles may
not respond coherently to ENSO. We thus propose a new
regionalisation of the Indonesian region based on anomalous
patterns of extremes associated with ENSO. For this pur-
pose, CDD and CWD were used for El Niño and La Niña,
respectively, as both indices showed the most robust anoma-
lous signals. We regionalised the stations using the k-means
clustering method, which is based on the similarity of sta-
tions, measured in terms of Euclidean distance (Sönmez and
Kömüşcü 2011; Awan et al. 2015). This distance was defined
13
 Supari et al.

(a) JJA, El Niño (e) JJA, La Niña

(b) SON, El Niño (f) SON, La Niña

(c) DJF, El Niño (g) DJF, La Niña

(d) MAM, El Niño (h) MAM, La Niña

Fig. 11  Composites of moisture flux (vectors) (kg m−2 s−1) and moisture flux divergence (shaded; mm/day) during El Niño (left panel) and La
Niña (right panel) events for each season. Dashed contours indicate negative values; hatching indicates significant at 95%

13
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia

Fig. 12  Composites of SSTs (a) (e)

(°C) during El Niño (left panel)
and La Niña (right panel) events
for each season

(b) (f)

(c) (g)

(d) (h)

13
 Supari et al.

(a) JJA, El Niño (e) JJA, La Niña

(b) SON, El Niño (f) SON, La Niña

(c) DJF, El Niño (g) DJF, La Niña

(d) MAM, El Niño (h) MAM, La Niña

Fig. 13  Composites of vertical velocity at 850 hPa during El Niño (left panel) and La Niña (right panel) events for each season. Dashed contours
indicate negative values; hatching indicates significant at 95%

13
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
based on the four dimensional coordinate of each station
reflecting the four seasons, i.e., JJA, SON, DJF and MAM.
For each season, dry and wet anomalies were represented
by + 1 and − 1, respectively. Based on this methodology,
we propose five sub-regions of distinct responses for both
El Niño and La Niña (Figs. 14, 15).
El Niño Region I, which covers Maluku, Ambon, central
and northern Sulawesi, south Kalimantan and a small part of
east Kalimantan, experiences dry conditions throughout the
El Niño cycle; this sub-region mostly overlaps with Region
C (anti-monsoonal) of Aldrian and Dwi Susanto (2003).
Region II, which coincides with Region A (monsoonal) of
Fig. 14  Five sub-regions with stations classified according to the sign of the seasonal CDD anomaly during El Niño events
Aldrian and Dwi Susanto (2003), is located in the south-
ern part of the country and is mainly characterised by dry
conditions during JJA, SON and DJF and wet conditions
during MAM. Region III, which covers central and eastern
Kalimantan, shows very strong dry responses during JJA
and SON but flips into wet conditions during DJF and dry
again in MAM. In the western part of Indonesia, Regions IV
and V overlap with Region B of Aldrian and Dwi Susanto
(2003). Whereas Region IV displays a clear flip response as
described in the previous section (dry during JJA and SON
and wet during DJF and MAM), Region V exhibits a very
different El Niño impact, i.e., dry during JJA, wet during
13

Fig. 15  Five sub-regions with stations classified according to the sign of the seasonal CWD anomaly during La Niña events
SON and DJF, and dry again during MAM. However, the
changes observed in Region V were much less marked at
between − 20 and 20%.
In La Niña Region I, which covers the eastern part of
Indonesia including Sulawesi, Maluku, Ambon and Papua,
wet conditions prevail throughout the La Niña period.
Region II is slightly different, being wet during JJA and
SON, dry during DJF and wet again during MAM; this
region covers Bali and western Nusa Tenggara. Region III,
which includes Java, Kalimantan and the southern part of
Sumatra, experiences wet conditions during JJA and SON
but dry conditions during DJF and MAM. Meanwhile,
13
Supari et al.
the northern part of Sumatra, which is categorised as
Region IV, is characterised by wet conditions during JJA,
dry during SON and DJF, and wet during MAM. Region
V, covering eastern Nusa Tenggara, shows a clearly dif-
ferent pattern, being dry during JJA and wet during the
remaining three seasons. Interestingly, while our proposed
regionalisation of El Niño impact overlaps with that of
Aldrian and Dwi Susanto (2003), our La Niña sub-regions
are mostly distinct; the only exception to this is Region
IV, which overlaps with Region B of Aldrian and Dwi
Susanto (2003).
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
4 Discussion
El Niño and La Niña composite analysis of anomalous sea-
sonal total rainfall and extremes over Indonesia has pro-
duced a number of interesting results. First, consistent with
Tangang et al. (2017), there is strong coherency between
anomalous seasonal total rainfall and indices of precipita-
tion extremes as the phenomena evolve from their initial
developmental stage in JJA to their decaying phase in MAM.
However, some indices are more sensitive than total rainfall.
For example, the effects of El Niño on CDD during JJA and
SON appear to be stronger compared to that on PRCPTOT,
with a similar situation recorded in the eastern and north-
eastern parts of the country during DJF and MAM, respec-
tively. Second, the respective impacts of El Niño and La
Niña on total rainfall and extremes were far more prominent
during JJA and SON than during DJF and MAM, as found
in a number of previous studies (e.g. Haylock and McBride
2001; Hendon 2003). During El Niño years, anomalously
dry conditions were prominent during the first two seasons
for all indices, and were recorded coherently throughout the
country from Sumatra to Papua and from Java to Borneo.
However, the effect of La Niña events was prominent and
coherent throughout the country only during JJA. During
SON, western parts of the country went from experiencing
anomalously wet to dry conditions.
Similar sign changing of indices also occurred during El
Niño years, but a season later, i.e., DJF. In fact, this anomaly
sign flipping can be seen as an interesting feature of the evo-
lution of phenomena impact over Indonesia. The wet (dry)
anomaly that appeared in DJF (SON) during El Niño (La
Niña) years evolved eastward to create mixed but predomi-
nantly wet (dry) conditions in the west and dry (wet) in the
east in DJF and MAM. Such west-east differences in anoma-
lous signals have yet to be discussed thoroughly in studies
relating Indonesian rainfall with ENSO. Indeed, because of
the opposite polarity of the anomalies affecting the western
and eastern parts of the country, a national index averaging
their occurrence would likely result in a conclusion of no
La Niña and El Niño impact over Indonesia during DJF and
MAM, because of the cancellation of the opposite signals
(e.g. Haylock and McBride 2001; Hendon 2003). In fact,
in the eastern part of the country where the eastward pro-
gression of the opposite anomalies was not predominant,
La Niña and El Niño effects were prominently experienced
throughout the entire periods of the phenomena. For exam-
ple, in some parts of eastern Indonesia (e.g. eastern Bor-
neo, Sulawesi, Ambon, Maluku and Papua) anomalously dry
(wet) conditions persisted throughout the El Niño (La Niña)
period, a finding consistent with that of Lestari et al. (2016).
The eastward progression of opposite anomalies can
be considered an important finding of the present work,
as such a feature has not yet been discussed thoroughly in
any study with the exception of that carried out by Juneng
and Tangang (2005), who assumed linearity between
El Niño and La Niña responses. In fact, combining the
results of the present study with those of Tangang et al.
(2017), an overall view of the progression of phenomena-
induced impacts on total rainfall and extremes in the Mari-
time Continent region can now be discussed further. The
anomalously dry conditions that engulfed all of Indone-
sia during JJA in El Niño years were also experienced in
Malaysia (Tangang et al. 2017; Fig. 3a). A largely similar
situation was recorded during SON, with the exception
of the weakening of dry conditions over Malaysia. Inter-
estingly, during DJF, while the dry conditions strength-
ened over northern and central Peninsular Malaysia and
northern Borneo, southern Peninsular Malaysia was
anomalously wet (Tangang et al. 2017; Fig. 3c). Indeed,
this area formed part of the region of wet anomalies that
appeared in western Indonesia during DJF in El Niño
years (Figs. 2c, 4c, 6c, 8c). Wet conditions also predomi-
nated over southwest Borneo, creating a dipole contrast
of anomalously dry conditions over northern Borneo and
anomalously wet conditions over southwest Borneo. The
mechanism behind such a contrasting dipole anomaly pat-
tern was also highlighted by Juneng and Tangang (2005)
and further investigated by Qian et al. (2013), with local
processes of diurnal cycling and topography attributed.
However, the evidence presented here seems to suggest
that the contrasting anomaly pattern over Borneo during
DJF in El Niño years was part of a large-scale regional
response to El Niño covering the entire Maritime Conti-
nent. This contrasting anomaly pattern continued in MAM
and was even more prominent in CDD data than PRCP-
TOT. A similar trend of anomalous signal evolution was
recorded during La Niña years, except that the dry and
opposite anomalies occurred in SON, i.e., a season earlier
than during El Niño years. This pattern is consistent with
the appearance of a dry anomaly over southern parts of
Peninsular Malaysia during SON (Tangang et al. 2017;
Fig. 7b).
The present study and that of Tangang et al. (2017) both
report robust propagation signals of opposite anomalies
during El Niño and La Niña years. For the entire Maritime
Continent, such propagation appears to occur in a north-
eastward direction, as suggested by Juneng and Tangang
(2005), although over Indonesia it is rather more eastward.
The important question is thus why does such northeast-
ward/eastward opposite anomaly signal propagation occur
during El Niño and La Niña years? Furthermore, what
are the roles of regional atmosphere—ocean interaction
and anomalous regional circulation? These questions were
somewhat addressed in Juneng and Tangang (2005), but
13

will be revisited below in light of the new evidence pre-
sented in this study.
Firstly, the anomalous total seasonal rainfall and extremes
over Indonesia can be linked to changes in the Walker Cir-
culation. According to Wang et al. (2003) and Lau and Nath
(2003), anomalous conditions over the Maritime Continent
are induced by changes in the Walker Circulation forced by
anomalous sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern
Pacific Ocean. Due to the changes in the Walker Circulation,
large-scale sinking (upward) motions then occur and sup-
press (enhance) convection over the Maritime Continent dur-
ing El Niño (La Niña) years. Figure 10 presents composites
of anomalous vertical velocity at 500 hPa for El Niño and La
Niña events during each season. Interestingly, the patterns of
sinking (upward) motions correspond well to the patterns of
anomalous seasonal rainfall and extremes recorded during
El Niño (La Niña) events.
Based on the earlier work of Wang et al. (2003) and Lau
et al. (2003), Juneng and Tangang (2005) attributed the
northeastward propagation of El Niño-induced anomalous
conditions to the strengthening and weakening of anomalous
anti-cyclonic circulations, one over the south Indian Ocean
(SIO) region during JJA and SON, and the other over the
western north Pacific (WNP) during DJF and MAM. These
twin anti-cyclonic circulations, residing on either side of the
equator, are manifestations of symmetrical Rossby waves
induced by warming over the eastern—central Pacific Ocean
(Matsuno 1966; Gill 1980).
The appearance of a wet anomaly over northern Sumatra
during SON was thus the result of low-level convergence
over the equator of strong anti-cyclonic circulation moving
north from the SIO region and a corresponding but weaker
anti-cyclonic circulation moving south from the Bay of Ben-
gal and south-western South China Sea (Fig. 11b). Consist-
ent with Wang et al. (2003) and Juneng and Tangang (2005),
during DJF the northern anti-cyclonic circulation located
over the WNP strengthened (Fig. 11c). However, the south-
ern anti-cyclonic located over the SIO did not diminish, but
instead broadened and shifted east with its centre roughly
located south of Java Island (Fig. 11c). The low-level equa-
torial convergence of this anti-cyclonic circulation and its
northern counterpart lying over the WNP region resulted
in an elongated wet anomaly covering the area from north-
ern Sumatra to south-western Borneo. Hence, the changes
observed over this region from SON to DJF can be seen as
the eastward expansion of a wet anomaly while other areas
were still experiencing dryness. The expansion of the wet
anomaly continued during MAM, but the anti-cyclonic cir-
culation south of the equator diminished. Instead, conver-
gence was mainly associated with the anti-cyclonic circula-
tion located north of the equator (Fig. 11d).
Seasonal changes in regional circulation over the Mari-
time Continent associated with La Niña events are not
13
Supari et al.
exactly the opposite of those taking place during El Niño
events. Although cyclonic circulation appeared in the SIO
region during SON, its intensity was much weaker compared
with that of the anti-cyclonic circulation recorded during El
Niño. During DJF, cyclonic circulations over the SIO and
WNP strengthened, with circulation during MAM appear-
ing similar. Such notable variation in anomalous regional
circulation between El Niño and La Niña years could be due
to differences in the patterns of anomalous SSTs (Fig. 12).
In turn, the differences in the eastward expansion of dry and
wet anomalies during La Niña and El Niño years, respec-
tively, could then be due to these differences in regional
circulation.
5 Conclusion
ENSO events affect the duration, intensity and frequency of
extreme precipitation in Indonesia in a similar way to that of
total precipitation. However, the duration of extreme events
is affected to a more significant degree than rainfall intensity
and frequency. During the El Niño developmental period
in JJA and SON, the entire Indonesian region is dominated
by dry conditions. However, during SON a wet anomaly
also appears over northern Sumatra, later expanding east-
ward during DJF and MAM, creating wetter conditions in
the west and drier in the east. This eastward expansion of
the wet anomaly is an important finding; we attribute it to
the mostly equatorial convergence of northern and southern
anti-cyclonic circulations, which strengthen and weaken
according to seasonal changes and anomalous SSTs.
Interestingly, while eastward dry anomaly expansion
also takes place during La Niña years, notable differences
in timing and extent are present, primarily due to variation
in the evolution of cyclonic circulations over both sides of
the equator compared to that of the anti-cyclonic circula-
tions associated with El Niño. Based on the behaviour of the
anomalous patterns of CDD, we identified five sub-regions
over Indonesia that exhibit distinct responses throughout the
period of El Niño occurrence. Likewise, using CWD, the
Indonesian region can be sub-divided into five sub-regions
summarising the impacts of La Niña. Overall, the present
study has improved our understanding of how El Niño and
La Niña events affect the Indonesian region, with the defined
sub-regions useful for decision-makers in terms of planning
and adapting according to season and location. Future inves-
tigations will address the issue of how El Niño (or La Niña)
events of different intensity affect Indonesia.
Acknowledgements  The first author thanks the Indonesia Endow-
ment Fund for Education (LPDP) (S-140/LPDP.3/2014) for provid-
ing a scholarship for his PhD program. This research was also funded
by the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia ICONIC-2013-001, and
is related to the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research
ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia
Grants (ARCP2013-17NMY-Tangang/ST-2013-017, ARCP2014-
07CMY-2014-Tangang/ST-2015-013, ARCP2015-04CMY-Tangang/
ST-2015-003).
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