Proc. Natl. Sci. Counc.

ROC(A)
Vol. 24, No. 3, 2000. pp. 216-225

Simulation of Random Variation of Three-phase Voltage

Unbalance Resulting from Load Fluctuation Using
Correlated Gaussian Random Variables
YAW-JUEN WANG

Department of Electrical Engineering

National Yun-Lin University of Science & Technology
Yun-Lin, Taiwan, R.O.C.

(Received January 21, 1999; Accepted November 10, 1999)

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the modeling and simulation of random variation of three-phase voltage unbalance
caused by load fluctuation in the distribution system. Active and reactive powers delivered by each phase to a dis-
tribution feeder are modeled by six correlated Gaussian random variables. Application of the Cholesky decomposi-
tion method allows the correlated Gaussian random variables to be effectively simulated using the Monte Carlo
technique. This is followed by a simple iterative process for solving the load flow problem so that three-phase
voltage phasors at the point of common coupling (PCC) can be obtained and random variation of voltage unbal-
ance factor at the PCC can be evaluated.

Key Words: voltage unbalance, Cholesky decomposition, Monte Carlo simulation, correlated Gaussian random
variables

I. Introduction
Three-phase voltage imbalance is a frequently en-
countered disturbance in electric distribution systems.
Imbalance of three-phase voltage results from asymmetry
of line/cable impedances and from inequality of the loads
in the three phases (Wang et al., 1992). The former is
related to the structure of the electric power system in
which geometric allocation of lines/cables significantly
influences their impedances. Efforts are in general made
to reduce the asymmetry of the transmission line imped-
ances by means of transposition. On the other hand, volt-
age imbalance caused by uneven distribution of loads over
three phases is more difficult to mitigate.
Large single-phase loads such as single-phase induc-
tion motors, traction systems, induction heating, etc., are
typical examples that cause voltage imbalance in indus-
trial electric power systems. In low voltage residential
and/or commercial systems, single-phase loads account
for the majority of power consumption. Wherever possi-
ble, efforts are made to distribute the single-phase loads
uniformly over three phases. From a statistical point of
view, however, distributing single-phase loads uniformly
over the three phases only ensures that the expected values
of the loads in each phase will be approximately equal.
But it is unlikely that at a given instant, three-phase loads
will be balanced because they vary in a random manner. In
other words, even if the average loads in the three phases
are kept the same, the instantaneous power demands in the
three phases differ from each other, leading to imbalanced
voltages at the point of common coupling.
The degree of imbalance of a three-phase voltage is
often measured based on the ratio of its negative- to posi-
tive-sequence component. This ratio is termed the unbal-
ance factor (UBF). By assuming that the magnitudes of
three-phase voltage phasors are Gaussian random vari-
ables, and that no phase angle deviations exist (i.e., 120º
out of phase with each other), Pierrat and Morrison (1995)
developed a probabilistic model of the voltage UBF and
showed that the UBF would have a Gaussian distribution
if the unbalance were mainly caused by asymmetry in sys-
tem impedances, and have a Rayleigh distribution if the
system impedances were symmetric. This model, though
capable of providing physical insight into the causes of
voltage unbalance, is somewhat restricted by its assump-
tions.
Instead of assuming normally distributed voltage
magnitudes, it seems more plausible to assume that the
loads (including active and reactive powers) in the three
phases will approach a jointly normal distribution as long
as the number of electric appliances supplied by the power
system is large enough (which is usually the case). This
assumption has a theoretical basis supported by the central
limit theorem, hence allowing the restrictions of the model

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 Random Variation of Voltage Unbalance

proposed by Pierrat and Morrison (1995) to be relaxed and A linear transformation of Y1 and Y2,
more accurate results to be obtained. Another advantage
of using a jointly normal distribution model lies in its abil-  W1   Y1 
ity to handle correlation between all Gaussian random   = T  , (3)
variables. This ability is especially important in modeling W2  Y2 
three-phase active and reactive powers since they are usu-
ally strongly correlated. produces two new Gaussian random variables W1 and W2
This paper combines numerical techniques of load with their covariance matrix cw given by
flow and Monte Carlo simulation and proposes a novel
method of simulating voltage unbalance caused by fluctu-  σw2 1 ρ wσw1 σw 2 
cw =  , (4)
ation of loads. The simulation begins with generation of  ρ wσw σw 2 σw2 2 
six correlated Gaussian random variables representing  1

three-phase active and reactive powers. The Cholesky where σw1 and σw2 are their respective standard devia-
decomposition method is used to accomplish this task. tions, and ρw their correlation coefficient. It is emphasized
This is followed by a load flow calculation used to deter- that the covariance matrix cw is related to the covariance
mine the three-phase voltage phasors at the point of com- matrix of Y1 and Y2, which is a unit matrix, by (Peebles,
mon coupling. Both the magnitude and the angle of UBF 1993)
can then be obtained by means of a symmetrical compo-
nent conversion. The probability density functions of UBF
1 0  t
under several situations will be studied. cw = T  T = TT .
t (5)
0 1 
II. Formulation
It is noted that if T is a lower triangular matrix of the form
1. Generation of Correlated Gaussian Random
Variables  T11 0 
T= ,
Let Pa, Pb and Pc be the total active powers, and let T21 T22 
Qa, Qb and Qc the total reactive powers absorbed by a clus-
ter of loads in phases a, b and c of an electric power distri- then the elements of T can be determined to be
bution system. For a sufficiently large number of loads, Pa,
T11 = σw1 , (6)
Pb, Pc, Qa, Qb and Qc have approximately a jointly normal
distribution. If the distribution system supplies only three- T21 = ρ wσw 2 , (7)
phase loads, then the random variables Pa, Pb, Pc, Qa, Qb
and Qc will be strongly correlated, owing to the symmetry T22 = σw 2 1 − ρ w2 . (8)
of variation in each phase. On the contrary, if all loads are
(statistically) independent single-phase loads, then the six Hence, W1 and W2 become
random variables will be uncorrelated. A realistic distribu-
tion system supplies a mixture of three-phase and single- W1 = T11Y1 = σw1Y1 , (9)
phase loads. Hence, a real situation may be somewhere
between the two extreme cases just mentioned.
In order to simulate random variations of active and
( )
W2 = T21Y1 + T22 Y2 = ρ wσw 2 Y1 + σw 2 1 − ρ w2 Y2 .

reactive powers in the three phases, correlated Gaussian (10)

random numbers must be generated. The following illus-
If W1 and W2 have means ¯w̄1 and ¯w̄2, respectively, then it
trates the procedure used to generate correlated Gaussian
suffices to add them to the right sides of Eqs. (9) and (10):
variables.
Let X1 and X2 be a pair of independent random vari- W1 = W1 + σw1Y1 , (11)
ables, both of which are uniformly distributed over the
interval [0,1]. Then two independent standard normal ran-
dom variables (i.e., each with zero mean and unit vari-
(
W2 = W2 + ρ wσw 2 Y1 + σw 2 1 − ρ w2 Y2 .) (12)

ance) Y1 and Y2 can be given by (Box and Muller, 1958)
Y1 = −2 ln( X1 ) cos(2πX2 ),
Y2 = −2 ln( X1 ) sin(2πX2 ).
Equations (1), (2), (11) and (12) enable us to gener-
ate two correlated Gaussian random variables W1 and W2
(1) with their respective means w¯¯1 and w
¯¯2, standard deviations
σw1 and σw2 and correlation coefficient ρw, using the uni-
(2) form random numbers X1 and X2.

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 Y.J. Wang

The foregoing development can easily be extended W = [W1 , W2 , K, W6 ]t , (18)

to the generation of six correlated Gaussian random vari-
ables representing active and reactive powers in the three
phases. Let cw represent the covariance matrix of the six-
dimensional normal distribution. The covariance matrix cw
can be factored into a lower triangular matrix T and an
upper triangular matrix T t that is the transpose of the for-
mer. This special factorization is called Cholesky decom-
position and can be written as
Equations (10)-(18) permit generating six arbitrary
correlated Gaussian random variables which represent the
active and reactive powers in the three phases. The com-
puter program for Cholesky decomposition of the covari-
ance matrix cw is available in most FORTRAN libraries
(e.g., Press et al. (1992)), which largely reduces the effort
involved in coding Monte Carlo simulation programs.

[ ]6×6 = T ⋅ T t ,
cw = cij (13) 2. Network Reduction and Load Flow Study

where The Monte Carlo method is a powerful tool for the

simulation of randomly varying loads, and it can be com-
σwj2
, if i = j, bined with the conventional deterministic load flow calcu-
cij =  lation to ascertain random variation of voltages at the load
ρijσwiσwj , if i ≠ j buses. To do so, the deterministic three-phase load flow
calculation is repeated a sufficiently large number of
 T11 0 0 0 0 0  times. Each time, the nodal active and reactive powers are
  changed by generation and transformation of random
T21 T22 0 0 0 0 
numbers, as mentioned in the previous section of this
T 0 
31 T32 T33 0 0 chapter. The probability distributions of the nodal volt-
T= . (14)
T41 T42 T43 T44 0 0  ages, and thus that of the voltage UBF, can then be
  obtained. However, the amount of calculation would be
T51 T52 T53 T54 T55 0  prohibitive for any practical distribution system if repeti-
  tive three-phase load flow calculations were to be carried
T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T66 
out by considering random variations of active and reac-
The elements of T can be calculated using the tive powers at all the load buses.
Cholesky method by factoring matrix cw. Equations (1) In fact, it is often the case that the voltage unbalance
and (2) allow six independent standard normal variates Y1, problem occurs only at some particular substations or
Y2, ..., Y6 to be generated from six independent uniform feeders that supply large single-phase loads (e.g., railway
random variables X1, X2, ..., X6. Therefore, the correlated traction locomotives) or unbalanced three-phase loads
Gaussian random variables can be given by (e.g., arc furnaces). In this case, one may wish to confine
his/her study of voltage unbalance to those buses to which
W = TY + W , (15) unbalanced loads are connected. The notion of network
reduction helps one reach this goal by representing a large
where W is a vector composed of six correlated Gaussian network with its Norton or Thevenin equivalence while
random variables, Y a vector containing six independent retaining buses of special interest. Network reduction is
standard normal random variables, and ¯W̄ a vector com- important when Monte Carlo simulation and three-phase
posed of the means of the six correlated Gaussian random load flow study are to be combined together to calculate
variables, namely, the probability distribution of the UBF at a particular load
bus since both methods are computationally intensive. For
W = [W1 , W2 , K, W6 ]t , (16) a (k + m)-bus system in which k buses are to be eliminated
and m buses retained, its nodal equations in matrix format
Y = [Y1 , Y2 , K, Y6 ]t , (17) can be written as

(19)

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 Random Variation of Voltage Unbalance

Note that in Eq. (19), the buses to be retained are num- where S1, S2, ..., Sm refer to the complex powers drawn at
bered as the last m nodes. Equation (19) is partitioned as each corresponding bus, and the asterisk (*) the conjugate.
shown above to obtain The voltage vector can be given by

V = [V1 V2 L Vm ] = Veq( 0 ) − Zeq I .

T
YEE YP  VE   I E  (28)
 T   =   . (20)
 YP YPP  VP   I P  Equations (27) and (28) lend themselves to the iterative
method of finding the solutions of V for known complex
Eliminating VE yields powers S1, S2, ..., Sm. In this paper, the Gauss-Seidel itera-
tive method (Glover and Sarma, 1994) is used to deter-
−1 −1
(YPP − YPT YEE YP )VP = I P − YPT YEE IE . (21) mine the bus voltages.

Equation (21) can be rewritten as 3. Voltage Unbalance Factor

Yeq Vp = Ieq
(0)
, (22) The complex voltage unbalance factor is defined as
the ratio of the negative-sequence to the positive-sequence
where component
−1
Yeq = YPP − YPT YEE YP , (23) UBF = V − V + = τ ⋅ exp( jθ ), (29)

−1
(0)
Ieq = I P − YPT YEE IE .
It is noted that in Eqs. (23) and (24), Yeq represents the
Norton equivalent admittance matrix and I(0)eq the Norton
current vector. The corresponding Thévenin impedance
matrix and voltage source vector can be given by
(24) where j = −1 , and V – and V + refer to negative-sequence
and positive-sequence voltages, and τ and θ to the magni-
tude and the angle of the complex UBF, respectively.
V –and V + are given using Fortescue transformation by
V − = (VAT + a 2 VBT + aVCT ) / 3, (30)

Zeq = Yeq−1 , (25) V + = (VAT + aVBT + a 2 VCT ) / 3, (31)

Veq( 0 ) = Yeq−1 Ieq

(0)
. (26) where a = exp(j2π/3), and VAT, VBT and VCT refer to the
three-phase voltage phasors.
An m-port Thévenin equivalent circuit is shown in
Fig. 1, in which m buses are retained for study of the volt- III. Numerical Examples
age unbalance problem. In the figure, the currents I1, I2, ...,
Im can be written in matrix form as Two examples will be given for the purpose of illus-
tration. The first example is a 6.2-km-long 11 kV three-
*
phase four-wire overhead feeder which is used to provide
 S S  
T
S2
I = [ I1 I2 L I m ]
T
=  1 L m   , (27) electricity from a substation to a load center. Various
 V1 V2 Vm  
 hypothetical conditions have been deliberately assumed in
the first example in order to show the influence of the (sta-
tistical) correlation and the standard deviation of three-
phase active and reactive powers upon the probability dis-
tribution of the UBF at the load end of the feeder. The sec-
ond example is taken from the Taiwan Power company’s
Tou-Liu district distribution substation, which is a 69/11
kV substation. The second example studies the probability
distribution of the voltage UBF at the secondary terminals
of a distribution transformer using the field recorded
three-phase power data.

1. An 11 kV Three-phase Overhead Feeder

A three-phase four-wire distribution feeder is taken

Fig. 1. An m-port Thévenin equivalent circuit of the distribution system. as the first example to study the random variation of three-

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 Y.J. Wang
phase voltage caused by fluctuation of loads in the three
phases. The circuit model of the system is shown in Fig.
1, in which the impedance matrix Zbus has been calculated
according to the arrangement of conductors shown in Fig.
2.
The method described in Subsection II.1 was used to
carry out the simulation. We simulated nine representative
cases, the parameters of which are listed in Table 1. In
these cases, the correlation coefficients between any two
Gaussian random variables are the same and are equal to
ρ. The means and the standard deviations of the active and
reactive powers in the three phases are all equal to µ and
σ, respectively. In Table 1, µ and σ are expressed in per
unit (p.u.). The corresponding base values of the voltage
and kilovoltamperes are 11.4 kV (line-to-line) and 25,000
kVA (three-phase), respectively. An important point to be
noted is that in all nine cases, stationary balanced power
consumption is assumed; i.e., the means of the three-phase
complex powers are equal. It is noted that although the
assumptions for the illustrative cases have been largely
simplified, the proposed simulation method is general and
is applicable to a wide range of problems.
A. Influence of Correlation Coefficient
The nine cases listed in Table 1 can be categorized
Fig. 2. Arrangement of three-phase conductors for numerical example
number one.
Table 1. Parameters of Nine Simulation Cases
case parameters
1 ρ = 0.9, µ = 0.13 p.u., σ = 0.035 p.u.
2 same as case 1 except for σ = 0.015 p.u.
3 same as case 1 except for σ = 0.005 p.u.
4 ρ = 0.5, µ = 0.13 p.u., σ = 0.035 p.u.
5 same as case 4 except for σ = 0.015 p.u.
6 same as case 4 except for σ = 0.005 p.u.
7 ρ = 0, µ = 0.13 p.u., σ = 0.035 p.u.
8 same as case 7 except for σ = 0.015 p.u.
9 same as case 7 except for σ = 0.005 p.u.
–220–
into three groups according to the degree of correlation:
highly correlated (the first three, ρ = 0.9), moderately cor-
related (the subsequent three, ρ = 0.5) and uncorrelated
(independent) cases (the last three, ρ = 0). We will com-
pare cases 1, 4 and 7, where the means and standard devi-
ations of the active and reactive powers are, respectively,
0.13 p.u. and 0.035 p.u. for each phase while the correla-
tion coefficients ρ are, respectively, 0.9, 0.5 and 0. The
corresponding probability density functions (PDFs) of the
magnitude of voltage UBF(τ ) are depicted in Fig. 3. It can
be seen that both the mean and the standard deviation of τ
increase with decreasing ρ. In other words, the more the
power fluctuations in each phase are correlated, the more
likely the three-phase voltage will be balanced.
To illustrate this result more clearly, variations of the
mean and the standard deviation of τ versus the correla-
tion coefficient are shown in Fig. 4.
A high degree of correlation of power fluctuations in
the three phases implies that a majority of the three-phase
loads are supplied by the feeder, thus causing the three-
phase voltage to be less unbalanced. Conversely, a low
degree of correlation implies that the feeder supplies a
large number of independent single-phase loads. Wide
fluctuation of power among the three phases can be expe-
rienced, and more severe voltage unbalance may be
caused.
The proposed simulation method is also capable of
providing useful information on random variation of the
angle (θ ) of the complex UBF by which V – leads V +. The
statistical distribution of θ, though relatively less frequent-
ly discussed in the literature, plays an important role in
some studies (e.g., Wang and Pierrat (1993)). The PDFs of
θ for ρ = 0.9, ρ = 0.5 and ρ = 0 are shown in Fig. 5, where
an increase in phase diversity with decreasing ρ can be
observed.
Fig. 3. PDFs of the magnitude of voltage UBF(τ ) for ρ = 0.9, ρ = 0.5 and
ρ = 0.
 Random Variation of Voltage Unbalance

2. A 69/11 kV Distribution Substation

In the previous example, the probability properties

(i.e., the means, variances and correlation coefficients.) of
the three-phase active and reactive powers were deliber-
ately assumed so that the influence of a specific parameter
on the probability distribution of the UBF could be found.
In this section, a real-world case will be studied. Figure 9
shows the one-line diagram of a 69/11 kV substation con-
taining three distribution transformers. Only the trans-
former #3 part is shown in the figure. The low-tension
side of the transformer is connected to five feeders supply-
ing electricity to several load centers in Tou-Liu city. The
Fig. 4. Variations of the mean and standard deviation of τ versus ρ,
assuming σ = 0.035 p.u. and µ = 0.13 p.u. for the active and reac- three-phase active and reactive powers flowing through
tive power of each phase. the transformer were recorded using a digital power ana-
lyzer. The measurement was carried out late in the autumn
of 1998 over several days. Because of the memory capaci-
B. Influence of the Variability of P and Q ty limitation of the power analyzer, an appropriate sam-
pling period must be selected so that successive data
The variability of power is another factor that influ-
ences voltage unbalance. The variability of a random vari-
able is measured based on its standard deviation. When
other system conditions are kept the same, power systems
with lower variability of power consumption are likely to
have a lower degree of voltage unbalance. Taking cases 4,
5, and 6 as examples for comparison, we notice that they
have the same conditions ρ = 0.5 and µ = 0.13 p.u. while
their standard deviations are 0.035 p.u., 0.015 p.u. and
0.005 p.u., respectively. It is seen in Fig. 6 that as σ
increases, both the mean and standard deviation of τ go
up. Figure 7 shows the variations of the mean and the
standard deviation of τ versus the standard deviation of
power (σ).
The PDFs of the angle (θ ) of UBF shown in Fig. 8
reveal that the phase diversity of UBF increases with σ.
This result is comparable with that shown in Fig. 5. In
both cases, the variability and phase diversity of UBF are Fig. 6. PDFs of τ for σ = 0.005, 0.015 and 0.035, where ρ is 0.5 and µ is
closely related. 0.13 p.u. for the three cases.

Fig. 5. PDFs of the phase angle of UBF(θ ) for ρ = 0.9, ρ = 0.5 and ρ = 0. Fig. 7. Mean and standard deviation of τ versus σ.

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 Y.J. Wang

B. Monte Carlo Simulation

To simulate random variation of the UBF shown in

Fig. 2, we need to model the active powers Pa, Pb and Pc
and the reactive powers Qa, Qb and Qc using correlated
Gaussian random variables. It is noted that the power is
neither purely deterministic as a function of time, nor is it
purely probabilistic, but rather is a combination of both.
The power can be resolved into a deterministic component
and a probabilistic component. The former accounts for
the average (expected) daily power curve, and the later for
the random deviation from the expected quantity.
Therefore, we can write

Pi (t ) = Pi (t ) + ξi , (23)

Fig. 8. PDFs of θ for σ = 0.005, 0.015 and 0.035.

Qi (t ) = Qi (t ) + δ i , (24)

where i = a, b or c refers to the phase specified, P¯¯i(t) and

recording can be carried out without interruption. Several ¯Q̄i(t) to the deterministic components of active and reac-
sessions of measurement were conducted. Each session
lasted either 27 hours with a sampling period of 30 sec-
onds, or 7 days with a sampling period of 5 minutes. The
data to be studied using the probabilistic method proposed
in this paper were recorded during one of these 27-hour
sessions beginning at 11:00 in the morning and ending at
13:40 the next afternoon.

A. Voltage UBF Calculated based on Recorded Active and

Reactive Power Data

Figure 10 shows the recorded active powers Pa, Pb

and Pc, and reactive powers Qa, Qb and Qc. All the power
data are expressed as per-units of the megavoltamperes
per phase. The base value of the megavoltamperes per
phase equals 5 MVA in this example, being one third of
the rated three-phase megavoltamperes of the transformer.
It is noted that Fig. 10(b) shows a sudden increase and a
sudden decrease in reactive power at about the 1,400th
and 2,600th time steps, respectively. The sudden changes
in reactive power were caused by switching of capacitor
banks in the substation.
Figure 11 shows the transformer low-tension side
line-to-line voltages Vab, Vbc and Vca in per-units (on the
line-to-neutral voltage base) which were obtained using a
three-phase load flow program in Fortran. In the load flow
program, the 69 kV bus was taken as the slack bus, and
the power data shown in Fig. 10 as power injected at the
load buses. The star-delta (Y-∆) three-phase model of the
transformer proposed by Arrillaga et al. (1983) was used
in the program, and the iterative method described by Eqs.
(27) and (28) was coded to find the voltages at the 11 kV
buses. The corresponding voltage UBF was calculated Fig. 9. One-line diagram showing a distribution transformer connected to
using Eqs. (20)-(22) and is depicted in Fig. 12(a). 69 kV and 11 kV buses.

–222–
 Random Variation of Voltage Unbalance
(a)
(b)
Fig. 10. Recorded three-phase power carried by the transformer: (a)
three-phase active power, (b) three-phase reactive power.
tive powers, and ξi and δi to their probabilistic compo-
nents. The deterministic components P¯¯i(t) and ¯Q̄i(t) can be
obtained by using a low-pass filter to filter out the random
variations of Pi(t) and Qi(t), and the probabilistic compo-
nents ξi and δi can be modeled by Gaussian random vari-
ables as described in detail in Section II. Equations (1)-
(18) then allow ξa, δa, ξb, δb, ξc and δc to be generated
using a random number generator. The foregoing model-
ing of Pi(t) and Qi(t) is indeed an application of random
processes. Pi(t) and Qi(t) are normal random processes,
and ξa, δa, ξb, δb, ξc and δc are strict-sense stationary ran-
dom processes.
The active and reactive powers Pa, Pb, Pc, Qa, Qb
and Qc simulated according to Eqs. (23) and (24) were
taken as the inputs to the three-phase load flow calculation
program to compute the low-tension side voltages of the
distribution transformer. And the corresponding voltage
UBF was also computed and is depicted in Fig. 12(b).
–223–
Fig. 11. Evolution of the three-phase line-to-line voltages at the low volt-
age side of the transformer.
Comparison of Fig. 12(a) and Fig. 12(b) reveals that the
proposed method is capable of closely simulating both
deterministic and probabilistic variation of the unbalance
in the three-phase voltage. While Fig. 12 provides the
reader with a qualitative evaluation of the proposed me-
thod, Fig. 13, which compares the PDFs and the CDFs of
the UBF obtained from measured and from simulated
power data, may offer a quantitative validation of the
method.
IV. Conclusions
This paper has proposed a method for simulating
three-phase voltage unbalance caused by random fluctua-
tion of loads in the three phases. Based on the central limit
theorem, the active and reactive powers drawn in the three
phases from a distribution feeder have been modeled by
six correlated Gaussian random variables. This paper has
explained how to generate the correlated Gaussian random
variables using the Cholesky decomposition method and
how to use the iterative method to solve the voltage pha-
sors at the load buses. Unbalance of the three-phase volt-
age can then be evaluated. The complex voltage UBF has
been adopted as an index of the degree of voltage unbal-
ance. Probability density functions of the magnitude (τ )
and the angle (θ ) of UBF can be easily obtained using the
proposed method.
The influence of the correlation of active and reac-
tive powers in the three phases has been studied. It has
been found that the mean of UBF decreases as the correla-
tion increases. Also studied was the influence of the vari-
ability of the loads on UBF. For highly fluctuating power
 Y.J. Wang
(a)
(b)
Fig. 12. (a) Evolution of UBF obtained using the voltage data shown in
Fig. 11; (b) evolution of UBF obtained using the Monte Carlo
simulation method.
consumption in the three phases, it is likely that a high
degree of voltage unbalance will exist. The PDF of θ pro-
vides important information about the phase diversity of
UBF. It has been found that for voltage unbalance caused
by load fluctuation, the variability and phase diversity of
UBF are closely related.
In addition to a fundamental example based on an 11
kV three-phase overhead feeder, field recorded three-
phase power data from a 69/11 kV distribution substation
have also been used as a more advanced example to illus-
trate how the proposed Monte Carlo simulation technique
can be incorporated into the load flow calculations to take
into account both the deterministic and the probabilistic
variations of the loads and those of the resulting voltage
unbalance. Good agreement between measured and simu-
lated results has been obtained.
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(a) (b)
Fig. 13. Comparison of (a) the PDFs and, (b) the CDFs of UBF, calculat-
ed using field recorded data (triangular dots) and using the
Monte Carlo simulation method (solid lines).
Acknowledgment
The author is grateful to the National Science Council, R.O.C., for
research grant NSC 86-2213-E-224-012.
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Cholesky decomposition

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