85-250 Engineering and the Environment

Population Issues and Dynamics

1
85-250 Engineering and the Environment
Population Issues and Dynamics

1
In 2011, the world human population grew by
139 million/year, or 382,000 persons/day: it only
took about 3 days to add 1 million people.

2
Factors
What factors affect the rate of human population
growth in a country?
r = (b-d) + (i-e)
where:
• r = rate of population growth
minors
• b = birth rate
• d = death rate
• i = immigration rate
• e = emigration rate
e.g. Canada (2011) b=11/1000, d=7/1000, (i-e)=0.7%
r
-

foot
-

Eo t
9¥ ) =
=
=

foot
⇒ I . I
Bfg 3
Factors
Carrying capacity
• The carrying capacity (K) is the maximum
number of individuals of a given species
that an environment can support.
• Is K constant?
• K is f (food supply, predators, need for food,
etc.)
Need for food can depend on
temperature (climatic cond’s.)
and life stage of organism.

4
Factors
Limiting factors (not in text) can be either:
• density-dependent: pressure to limit
population increases with population density
• density-independent: pressure to limit
population is not affected by population
density
Example of a
density-dependent factor: disease pre clothing
,

competition for food

density-independent factor:
climate ( tap rainfall )
,

5
Factors
7.1.2 Limiting factors

R -
uche is

too low to

suggest any
meaningful
correlation .

Are density-dependant factors limiting these human

relation
populations? NO!
Graph
shows no w -
.

6
Growth Models
— based on mass balance, three population
growth models are commonly used to
simulate the rates of organism growth:

◦ Exponential growth (unlimited)

◦ Logistic growth (space-limited)
◦ Monod growth (resource-limited)

http://berl.nsupdate.info/images-of-bacteria/

7
Growth Models
dX
Exponential growth: = µX = (µmax - kd )X
dt
where:
X = mass, number, or concentration of organisms
t = time [ T ]
µ = specific growth rate [ T-1 ]
µmax= maximum specific growth rate [ T-1 ]
kd = respiration rate coefficient [ T-1 ]
for individuals, not all energy goes to growth; some for respiration
for populations, some individuals are dying

8
Growth Models
Exponential growth:
dX
= (µ max − kd ) X
dt
Integrating this expression, we end up with:

I! =

Jot, um .
-
k d) It

→ be ( I ) -
-

Gu max
-

Kd ) C t -

0 )
Gun k d ) t
Kele ;
-

"
M a
Eg
5 .
7
y
. .

e
yo
=

9
Growth Models
In a given environment, a bacteria divides every 25
min. What is µ? Xo t to =¢ =
I x
,
=
2 =
25mi .

(yuma kd ) k¥ h
-
'
0.0277 min
-
=
= =
,

25mi

How many bacteria would there be after 36

hours? F- 36k ( Gogi ) =/ moi

260,5mi
X =
UGO
p ,

€ )
( O -
0277 moi C
=
yo e

units cancel

X 02×1026
I
organisms
=
.

10
Growth Models
If each bacteria has a mass of 5.2 x10-13 g, what mass of
bacteria would be produced in 36 h?
bacteria ) ( 02×1026 bacteria )
gl
'
( 5.2×15 X
'
c.
m N
=p
=

's

537g
5.3 x co
=

g
=

What is the approximate mass of the human population

(avg. = 50 kg)? "

)
'

) (
'
( glp 3.507g
=
7×10 =3 Sox to
m = 50×10
p g
predation
balancer supply of food
and etc
Cheeks

[
: . .

bacteria will
Do you see a problem here? Mess of
catch soon
!
up my
In I .
5
days ,
mass
of bacteria -

¥ mass
of
humans ! 50 min bacteria wld exceed !
11
Growth Models
Logistic growth: dX = µX = [( µmax - kd )(1 - X )] X
dt K
Recognizes carrying capacity, K

I
¥ = I → to
-

Initially, X~ 0
moves
-

•
lathi low
exponential growth
pop

• What happens as X à K?
growth →
mover

I
¥ =/
¥ =
- -

fo zero

• Integrating the differential equation, we end up

with: K

X
=

) Tim
:
c
,
Xk
"
-

+
e

egn.s.io
12
 Growth Models
Logistic growth
u=(umax – kd)(1 – X/K) X~K

Mihelcic, Fig. 5.8

X~0
Logistic and exponential growth
models are the same at low
biomass (population).
13
Growth Models
Monod
• In this model, the growth rate changes as food
(substrate) becomes scarce:
dX S
= ( µ - kd ) X = ( µmax - kd ) X
dt S + KS
where: S = substrate or food concentration (mg/L)
KS = half-saturation constant (mg/L)
The concentration supporting uptake
an

the rate
rate one -

half maximum .

14
Growth Models
S Assumes
µ = µmax
S + KS Kd e
0
.

— consider the following cases:

C Kd forger
no

◦ S ~ 0 (S << KS)
s
=
0 negligible )
→

Is
.

no od
"
→ no growth
◦ S = KS
s¥s= II I
→
=

as
here half -

saturation constant
µ
⇐
I yumax
◦ S >> KS
S

Tks
=
SJ =/
µ =µmox
rate
.

growth
"

A- how Ks
maximum
.

very 15
 SET

(
A
=

Iumax

Growth Models
od

astroturf
① hit
growth
max

✓
Kd longer
no

negligible
negothgwfh
→

→ death

Ziti: .

Fit reduced
at high concentrations Mihelcic, Fig. 5.11
than for low Ks

Mihelcic, Fig. 5.9 16

 Human Populations

Raven 17
Human Populations
World birth rate
— 2.2%/year in the mid 1960’s
— 1.09%/year in 2018
— Yet population continues to increase
exponentially! Why?
— As long as r > 0, population grows.
— Death rates have decreased faster than
birth rates.

18
Human Populations Raven, 7th
edition

World birth rate

(e.g. Mexico)

Year Birth rate (b) Death rate (d) Annual growth rate (r)
1900 48/1000 34/1000 14/1000 = 1.4%/yr
2000 23/1000 4/1000 19/1000 = 1.9%/yr
19
 Human Populations
World Birth Rate
Human populations go through demographic stages:

b=d b >> d b>d b~d

b<d

1700 1900 1950

Greatest human population

growth in this time span Raven 20
Human Populations
World Birth Rate
Demographic Birth and Reasons Examples
Stage Death
rates
Pre-industrial b = d High infant mortality, None current
war, diseases (except for conflict
zones)
Transition b >> d Better healthcare, Nigeria, Ghana
reliable food and water

Industrial b>d sources, Brazil, Morroco

Post-industrial b~d People more educated, Germany, Canada,

educated and affluent à China
smaller families

In what stage was Mexico in 2000?

21
Human Populations
Fertility rate
— Refers to the number of children per couple.
— Currently = 2.5 (worldwide)
— Replacement level fertility rate = 2.1
— Why not 2.0?
◦ Some individuals die before reaching reproductive stage.
◦ In places where infant death is high, replacement level
fertility rate is higher (e.g., 2.7)

22
Human Populations
Fertility rate

Raven

Back in 2011, which countries have fertility rates >

world replacement? Egypt, India, Nigeria

23
Human Populations
Fertility rate is affected by:
— infant and child mortality rates f
— status and education of women f
— culture ?
— marriage age f
— contraceptive use
f

Raven 24
Human
Populations

National Geographic,
Sept 2011 25
5.3 Human Populations

Raven

National Geographic, Sept 2011

26
 Socio Economic Issues
Aging Populations
-

ADV .
the population Dis A elderly Lurking popilolhri ( less social assistance )
retirement

Human Populations
to P lives and
-

crime A increase
age sh in services
Technology
less
perhaps consume

personally
but more
through
services

> 49 yrs post-reproductive

<16 - 49 yrs reproductive

<15 yrs pre-reproductive

Raven 27
Human Populations
Age Structure
— Life expectancies and fertility rates are different
for developed vs. developing countries.
— Developed countries:
◦ Longer life expectancies.
◦ Lower fertility rates.
◦ Uniform age structure.
— Developing countries:
◦ Higher infant mortality.
◦ Higher fertility rates.
◦ Pyramidal age structure.
28
Human Populations
Age structure
In developing countries, if infant health care was
improved and even if fertility rates dropped to
the replacement level, the populations would still
increase in the short term. Why?
-

large segment are

pre
-

reproductive stage
-

ever
if fertility rate dropped to 2. I
,

number still beer children

larger can

momentum
"

population
"

rate birth rate

-

fertility us .

29
Human Populations ~
40%
enter
Is .
A G-

reproductive
age
Age structure

Raven 30
Human Populations
IPAT Equation
— population is one factor in human impact on
the world
I = P xA xT
TECHNOLOGY
IMPACT

POPULATCON AFFLUENCE ~ Level

of
Corruption

Which of these can engineers have the greatest

control over?

31
5.3 Human Populations

National Geographic,
March 2011 32
Ecological Footprint

— a way of quantifying human impact for an

individual, country, world
— the sum of the total land required to maintain
the lifestyle of an individual sustainably
— biological capacity = available land + ocean
divided by the # of people HAVE
— ecological footprint = land and ocean required
to maintain lifestyle of individual USE

33
Ecological Footprint
① Brazil ,
NZ
,
SA
,

Canada Russia
Questions: ,

1. Which countries are

living within their
means? ② USA !
2. Is the greatest per yes
capita consumer having
the largest deficit?
3. Is the country with the
lowest perGales
capita
a
NO
-
.

Bay
consumption living
within its means?
4. What are the
implications of a deficit?
Unsustainable
Supported by use of
non -
renewable resources

Mihelcic C oil minerals ) TECH ? 34

,
Ecological Footprint

35
Summary
— Populations grow exponentially unless there are
limitations.
— Populations grow as long as the birth rate
exceeds the death rate.
— Human populations go through demographic
stages where the death rate drops, followed by
the birth rate dropping.
— Environmental impact of a humans depends on
population, affluence and technology.
— Visit: http://www.worldometers.info/world-
population/
36