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Katelyn Sherman

Mr. Phillips

AP Language and Composition

14 December 2018

Bolsonaro Prepares Brazil for Economic Downfall

How would one’s reaction be if their president is referred to as “a Brazilian Donald

Trump” by the media? Bolsonaro is an extreme right-wing conservative who leans towards the

populist party, and he has contentious views that create controversy amongst the citizens of

Brazil regularly. In addition to his questionable morals and his argument-provoking statements,

his economic policies also evoke many different opinions. Bolsonaro’s biggest priorities

economically are pension reform, tax reform, and privatizing big corporations. When taking into

account what his policies consist of and how effectively they can be carried out, it is clear that

the policies Jair Bolsonaro promises to implement in his campaign will predominantly negatively

impact the economic well-being of the citizens of Brazil, except for investors and large business

corporations.

Bolsonaro is not qualified nor educated enough to make informed, intelligent decisions

about how to help the people of Brazil economically. David Biller, a journalist for the London

newspaper Bloomberg, states that Bolsonaro has admitted to not being very knowledgeable

when it comes to commerce, and he has chosen to leave the economics of the nation “in the

hands of Guedes,” an investment banker and now the presidential advisor. Adding on to

reasons Bolsonaro is underqualified, according to a writer for the blog Open Democracy, after

the attempted assassination of Bolsonaro, he took that opportunity to victimize himself and

further push his campaign, gaining his popularity through manipulation, not his policies. This

event led to a sudden surge of anti-Worker party feelings amongst the lower classes of Brazil,

posing a threat to democracy and paving the way for authoritarianism. If authoritarianism

overtook republic as Brazil’s form of government, people would have very limited political
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freedoms and would be bound tightly to a stable, central government, meaning the value of their

economic market would drop drastically.

The economic policies that will be put into place under Bolsonaro are unrealistic,

unclear, and they will not help Brazil with what they are currently struggling with economically.

Arthur Gomez Moreira, a writer for the blog The Conversation that is sponsored by the

University of Sussex, writes that currently, the Brazilian government’s economic approach is

something called social-developmentalism. This strategy “is focused on the potential of Brazil’s

internal market, demand for natural resources, and developing internal demand through

investment in infrastructure,” but unfortunately that leads to increasing social inequality. In a

study funded by the Pew Global Attitudes Project in 2014 focused on the economy of Brazil, it

states that one big economic problem of Brazil is inflation, which leads to major unemployment

issues. It also creates a more drastic gap between the wealthy and the impoverished, not to

mention the public debt. According to a writer for The Toronto Star, the number of unemployed

citizens reaches almost 13 million. Guedes claims that he is going to resolve that issue by

creating ten million jobs in the next few years (Biller). Although that seems like a good idea, in

theory, it would be hard to create millions of brand new jobs in just two to three years, and

Guedes doesn’t even provide a general idea of where he would implement these new jobs. It

also has to be taken into consideration that the number of unemployed will only go up as time

goes on, so there will still be millions left without jobs even if the creation of the ten million jobs

are successful. Another problem of the Brazilian economy is their poor health care, and so far

Guedes nor Bolsonaro have said anything about health care reform, and the closest policy that

could relate to that is their supposed pension reform (“Pew Global Attitudes Project”).

Bolsonaro and Guedes are placing their economic interests above the what the people

of Brazil believe needs significant reform. When asked what they thought the most urgent

economic issue was, 39% of the citizens of Brazil said the lack of employment opportunities,

27% said the pay gap, 25% said inflation, and 6% said public debt (“Pew Global Attitudes
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Project”). However, instead of working on trying to fix the pay gap or prevent it from furthering,

some economic policies Guedes wants to implement “include dozens of privatizations and a

revamp for the nation’s byzantine tax code” (Biller). The hope is that by taking the largest

energy corporations run by the state and privatizing them entirely that it will reduce future debt,

make the businesses more productive, and “provide an immediate cash infusion to the country’s

coffers” (Oyamada). However, as already stated earlier by Moreira, when only focusing on

Brazil’s internal market it just makes the pay gap worse, which will have the opposite effect of

what is needed.

Multiple professors and analysts have made educated guesses as to what will result

from the economic policies Bolsonaro and Guedes wants to implement, and they’re all negative

speculations. Paulo Bilyk, a chief investment officer at Sao Paulo-based Brao Investimentos,

states that “what is most likely is that the new government will struggle to get reforms approved

and solving the fiscal problem.” One top market analyst said Brazil’s benchmark stock index

could tank as much as 40 percent (Biller). Mark Weisbrot of the Washington-based think tank

Center for Economic and Policy Research said Bolsonaro’s victory thrusts Brazil’s democracy

into crisis. These are quotes from three different people of different education levels and

different professions, and they all agree that the economy of Brazil is only looking to worsen if

these policies are implemented. “Privatization would be a game changer,” says Greg Lesko, a

money manager at Deltec Asset Management in New York, “but I have to say I’m less optimistic

on that.” Even though some of Bolsonaro’s policies do seem useful in theory, they won’t pan out

well when put into action.

Despite Bolsonaro’s controversial campaign and his poorly thought-out plans for his

presidency, there are good things about him that helped him win the election. According to a

writer for the blog Open Democracy, many Brazilian citizens think that by electing Bolsonaro

into office their country will grow to be more successful and they believe he is the “strong man

type figure” that is necessary to “end the corruption and violence.” Guedes also has some plans
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for implementing open trade and free markets, which is a step towards capitalism that could

have a positive impact, but overall the other bad economic policies outweigh the good.

Bolsonaro is someone who the people of Brazil think will be someone who is not afraid of

making decisions, which can be helpful in certain high-stakes decisions. He is a powerful guy

who plans on taking Brazil’s government in a completely different direction. His extreme

statements and bold promises are what makes him appealing because the people want a

change, but his reforms will not affect the country for the better.

Bolsonaro and Guede’s policies are vague and impractical, and they will negatively

affect the economic well-being of the citizens of Brazil. Their ideas for pension reform, tax

reform, and privatization of large businesses either don’t address the problems that need to be

addressed, and they couldn’t feasibly be useful throughout the next few years, meaning the

citizens will not see any improvement with employment or the pay gap any time soon. Citizens

have already been protesting his presidency and they should continue to as time goes on,

because if enough people can rise up against Bolsonaro he will have to change some of his

policies. The citizens of Brazil should also look out for the next election, in which they can pay

more attention to the candidate’s promises and elect someone who will change Brazil for the

better.

Work Cited

Biller, David, et al. "Brazil Super Minister Shoulders Weight of Bolsonaro Economy." Bloomberg

[London], 30 Oct. 2018,

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-30/brazil-s-super-minister-shoulders-weight-of-b

Olsonaro-economy.

"Brazil Elections: An Avoidable Catastrophe."SIRS Issues Researcher, 03 Oct. 2018,

https://sks.sirs.com.
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"Brazil's wrong turn; Jair Bolsonaro." Toronto Star [Toronto, Ontario], 30 Oct. 2018, p. A10. Global

Issues in Context,

http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A560412991/GIC?u=rale84535&sid=GIC&xid=318a76c

3. Accessed 5 Dec. 2018.

"Chapter 1.- Views of National Conditions and the Economy in Brazil." Pew Global Attitudes

Project, Pew Research Center, 2014. Global Issues in Context,

http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A369988222/GIC?u=rale84535&sid=GIC&xid=5309c5

cd. Accessed 11 Dec. 2018.

Langlois, Jill, and Kate Linthicum. "Far-Right Populist Wins Presidential Election in Brazil." Los

Angeles Times, 29 Oct. 2018, pp. A.1. SIRS Issues Researcher, https://sks.sirs.com.

Moreira, Arthur Gomes. "Brazil Faces Two Very Different Economic Models." The Conversation,

University of Sussex, 11 Oct. 2018,

theconversation.com/brazil-faces-two-very-different-economic-models-in-bolsonaro-and-had

Dad-98573.

Oyomada, Aline, et al. "Brazil's Monster Rally Due for Reality Check After Bolsonaro Win."

Bloomberg [London], 30 Oct. 2018, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-29/brazil-

s-monster-rally-due-for-reality-check-after-bolsonaro-win

"Will turning right lead Brazil the wrong way? With the election of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil is the latest

country to embrace populism. What's next for Latin America's most populous nation?" Globe

& Mail [Toronto, Canada], 3 Nov. 2018, p. O3. Global Issues in Context,

http://link.galegroup.com/apps/doc/A560923961/GIC?u=rale84535&sid=GIC&xid=224e746c.

Accessed 5 Dec. 2018.

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