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From: Eystein Jansen <Eystein.Jansen@geo.uib.

To: Jonathan Overpeck <>, Keith Briffa <>
Subject: Re: bullet debate #3
Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:28:11 +0100

This version is fine with me:
At 12:03 -0700 15-02-06, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>Hi again... thanks for the work on number #3. It
>seems a bit awkward/vague, so how about:
>Taken together, the sparse evidence of Southern
>Hemisphere temperatures prior to the period of
>instrumental records indicates that overall
>warming has occurred during the last 350 years.
>The even sparser records longer than 350 years
>indicate that there may have been periods of
>regional warmth in the past 1000 years that were
>as warm, or warmer than, 20th century means.


>Thanks, Peck
>>I suggest this should be
>>Taken together , the sparse evidence of
>>Southern Hemisphere temperatures prior to the
>>period of instrumental records indicates that
>>overall warming has occurred during the last
>>350 years, but the even fewer longer regional
>>records indicate earlier periods that are as
>>warm, or warmer than, 20th century means.
>>fine , though perhaps "warmth" instead of "warming"?
>>and need to see EMIC text
>>suggest delete
>>suggest delete
>>Peck, you have to consider that since the TAR ,
>>there has been a lot of argument re "hockey
>>stick" and the real independence of the inputs
>>to most subsequent analyses is minimal. True,
>>there have been many different techniques used
>>to aggregate and scale data - but the efficacy
>>of these is still far from established. We
>>should be careful not to push the conclusions
>>beyond what we can securely justify - and this
>>is not much other than a confirmation of the
>>general conclusions of the TAR . We must resist
>>being pushed to present the results such that
>>we will be accused of bias - hence no need to
>>attack Moberg . Just need to show the "most
>>likely"course of temperatures over the last
>>1300 years - which we do well I think. Strong
>>confirmation of TAR is a good result, given
>>that we discuss uncertainty and base it on more
>>data. Let us not try to over egg the pudding.
>>For what it worth , the above comments are my
>>(honestly long considered) views - and I would
>>not be happy to go further . Of course this
>>discussion now needs to go to the wider Chapter
>>authorship, but do not let Susan (or Mike) push
>>you (us) beyond where we know is right.
>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>Climatic Research Unit
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>Mail and Fedex Address:
>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>University of Arizona
>Tucson, AZ 85721
>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>fax: +1 520 792-8795

Eystein Jansen
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
All�gaten 55
N-5007 Bergen
Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661
Fax: +47-55-584330