BIRLA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE, PILANI

WORK INTEGRATED LEARNING PROGRAMMES

Course Title DECISION ANALYSIS

Course No(s) MBA ZG535/ MM ZG535 / QM ZG535

Credit Units Four

Credit Model 3+1+0

Course Author Prof. PB Venkataraman

Version No Rev 4

Date 1-Aug-2016

COURSE OBJECTIVES

We make decisions every day. Some decisions are routine but some have a profound impact on our
life. Gaining competency in such a vital subject is highly desirable both for personal and professional
wellbeing. The objective of this course is to provide an opportunity to gain this mastery: to be able to
achieve clarity of action in making any decision on which we focus our attention.

TEXT BOOKS:

T1 Michael A. Roberto., The Art of Critical Decision Making, Audible.com, 2013.

T2 J Edward Russo and Paul J.H. Schoemaker., Decision Traps – The Ten Barriers to
Brilliant Decision-Making And How To Overcome Them, Fireside Simon &
Schuster Inc., 1st edition., 1990.

T3 Harvard Business Essentials: Decision Making – 5 steps for better results, Harvard
Review Business Press, 17 June 2010.

REFERENCE BOOK(S) & OTHER RESOURCES:

R1 On Making Smart Decisions, Harvard Business Review., 2013

R2 Ralph L.Keeney., Value-Focused Thinking, Harvard University Press, 1996.

R3 Alternatives: The Source of Superior Solutions, HBR., 2006.

R4 Diagnosing Your Decision, How To Make Smarter Decisions, HBR, Nov-2013.

R5 James Surowiecki, The wisdom of crowds, Little Brown Book Group, Mar-2005.
LEARNING OUTCOMES:

# Learning Outcomes

Explain the fundamentals of decision making process and define the quality of a
LO1
decision.

LO2 Relate to the cognitive biases and interpret one’s decision objectively.

Apply methods to reduce the impact of cognitive biases in organization and

LO3
personal decisions.

LO4 Lead teams in decision making.

LO5 Select appropriate decision making tool and apply it in a given situation.

EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING COMPONENTS

1. Lab work: ‘Judgement in Crisis’, Everest V2, Data Analytics, Harvard Business Publishing.

2. Project work: None.

3. Case study: Columbia disaster, Mount Everest tragedy.

4. Work integration: None.

5. Design work/Field work: None.

Contact List of Topic Title Topic # (from content structure) Reference
Hour

1-2 Introduction to the  Course detailing Lecture slides

Course  Decision notations – Descriptive, normative,
actional thought.

3-4 Qualifying a decision  Brilliant blunders T1. Lecture slides

 Common misconception
 Factors impacting a decision

5-6 Heuristics  How we decide (Neurobiology) http://gocognitive.

 Evolution of decision making (Heuristics) net
 Tacit knowledge
 Gut feelings (Gerd Gigerenzer)

7-8 Deciding to decide  Risk & uncertainty Lecture slides

 Intuitive & Rational decision making
 Harvard model for decision making

9-12 Decision traps –  Anchoring T1, T2

Cognitive biases  Status-Quo
 Sunk-Cost [Columbia disaster
 Confirming evidence case study,
 Framing Mount Everest
 Estimating & forecasting tragedy case study]
 Overconfidence
 Prudence
 Recallability

13-14 Judgement in Crisis  Simulation exercise - Debriefing HBP-7077-HTM-

ENG

15-16 Decision framing  Framing a decision T2

 Addressing the right problem

17-20 Alternatives, Values,  Objectives & alternatives Lecture slides, R3

Information &  Value focused thinking
Reasoning  Smart information
 Case based reasoning

21-22 Data Analytics –  Simulation exercise - Debriefing HBP 7050-HTM-

Strategic decision ENG
making

23-24 Team decision making  Wisdom of crowds R5

 Psychological safety
 Group think

25-26 Everest V2  Simulation exercise - Debriefing HBP 7000-HTM-

ENG

27-32 Ethical decision  Role of ethics in decision making Lecture slides

making  Ethical distinctions
  Ethical situations

CASE STUDIES: DETAILED PLAN

Case Case study Objective Case study Sheet

study Access URL
No

1 Discuss cognitive biases during critical decision making – Columbia

disaster.

2 Discuss importance of decision framing – Mount Everest tragedy.

EVALUATION SCHEME

Evaluation Name Type Weight Duration Day, Date,

Component (Quiz, Lab, Project, Mid (Open book, Session, Time
term exam, End Closed book,
semester exam, etc) Online, etc.)

EC - 1 Simulation lab – Online 10% 7 days February 14 to 28,

Judgement in crisis 2019
[Individual exercise]

Simulation lab – Online 10% 7 days March 14 to 28,

Business analytics – 2019
Strategic decision
making [Individual
exercise]

Simulation lab - Team Online 10% 7 days April 14 to 28,

Decision Making – 2019
Everest V2 [Group
exercise]

EC - 2 Mid-sem Closed book 30% 2 hours 08/03/2019 (FN)

10 AM – 12 Noon

EC - 3 Comprehensive Open book 40% 3 hours 03/05/2019 (FN)

9 AM – 12 Noon

Syllabus for Mid-Semester Test (Closed Book): Topics in Contact Hours : 1 to 16

Syllabus for Comprehensive Exam (Open Book): All topics
Important links and information:
Elearn portal: https://elearn.bits-pilani.ac.in
Students are expected to visit the Elearn portal on a regular basis and stay up to date with the latest
announcements and deadlines.
Contact sessions: Students should attend the online lectures as per the schedule provided on the Elearn portal.
Evaluation Guidelines:
1. EC-1 consists of either two Assignments or three Quizzes. Students will attempt them through the course
pages on the Elearn portal. Announcements will be made on the portal, in a timely manner.
2. For Closed Book tests: No books or reference material of any kind will be permitted.
3. For Open Book exams: Use of books and any printed / written reference material (filed or bound) is
permitted. However, loose sheets of paper will not be allowed. Use of calculators is permitted in all
 exams. Laptops/Mobiles of any kind are not allowed. Exchange of any material is not allowed.
4. If a student is unable to appear for the Regular Test/Exam due to genuine exigencies, the student should
follow the procedure to apply for the Make-Up Test/Exam which will be made available on the Elearn
portal. The Make-Up Test/Exam will be conducted only at selected exam centres on the dates to be
announced later.
It shall be the responsibility of the individual student to be regular in maintaining the self study schedule as given
in the course handout, attend the online lectures, and take all the prescribed evaluation components such as
Assignment/Quiz, Mid-Semester Test and Comprehensive Exam according to the evaluation scheme provided in
the handout.