POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 23RD JANUARY 2019, 6 AM CST

UltraPoll - Saskatchewan
Edition
Voter Intention Numbers and Leader
Favourability Ratings
23rd January 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on the result
of a survey conducted between January 14th and
January 15th, 2019 among a sample of 830 adults,
18 years of age or older, living in Saskatchewan.
The survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular
phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.4% and
is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
SASK PARTY MAINTAIN LEAD

23 January 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The Saskatchewan Party maintain a 20-point plus lead over
the NDP, leaving the Saskatchewan electoral picture looking very much the same as it did in
November.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 830 Saskatchewans between January 14th and 15th 2019.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.4% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Sask Party remain firmly in control,” said Joseph Angolano, Vice President of Mainstreet
Research. “Much like our last poll in November, the Sask Party lead the NDP in both Saskatoon
and Regina as well as the interior of Saskatchewan.”

“Given that sentiment against the carbon tax is so high in Saskatchewan, it is no surprise that
Premier Moe and his criticisms of the federal Liberal plan is translating into strong support
for the Sask Party.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe has 55.8%
(-0.7% since Mainstreet’s November 2018 poll), while the NDP with Ryan Meili at the helm
has 32.6% (+2.3%). The Liberals with Naveed Anwar have 5.9% (-0.9%), while Shawn Setyo
and the Green Party have 2.4% (-1.8%).

“The silver lining for the NDP is that they were only party to post a gain from November,”
continued Angolano.

The survey also asked Saskatchewan voters if they had a favourable view of all four party
leaders.

“Premier Moe has a very strong net rating of +19.1%”, continued Angolano. “Meili’s net rating
on the other hand is -4.5%.”

“While there is a big gap between Moe’s and Meili’s favourability rating, Meili’s ratings have
been steadily improving since August.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

16.7%

2.4%
2%

4.8% 47.5%
All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

All Voters
26.6%

3.3%
12.6%
2.4%
5.9%
Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal Green Another Party
2.3%
3.3% Undecided

4.7%
45.2%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
32.6% 55.8%

31.9%

Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal Green Another Party

Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal

Undecided Green Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(decided and leaning voters - geographic breakouts)

55.8%
32.6%
5.9%
All

2.4%
3.3%

48.2%
40.9%
Regina

6.3%
0.5%
4.1%

46.7%
42.8%
Saskatoon

8.0%
0.8%
1.7%

63.9%
23.6%
Rest of SK

4.6%
4.1%
3.8%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Saskatchewan Party NDP Liberal Green Another Party

 Party Leader Favourability Ratings
Scott Moe Ryan Meili

3.6% 8.7%

22.4%

29.7%

42.9%

Scott Moe Ryan Meili

42%

26.9%

Naveed Anwar
23.8% Shawn Setyo
Scott Moe
6.9% 3.2%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
20.7%
18.6%
23.8% 28.5%

25.9%

42.5%

Naveed Anwar Shawn Setyo

Scott Moe

14.5%

46.5%
49.8%
19.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure Not Familiar
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe 47.5% 55.4% 39.6% 45.7% 50.2% 44.3% 51.4% 41.8% 37.8% 55.1%
NDP led by Ryan Meili 26.6% 22.8% 30.4% 24.7% 24.1% 24.7% 35.7% 33.8% 36.4% 18.3%
Saskatchewan Liberals led by Naveed Anwar 4.8% 4% 5.5% 5.5% 4.8% 5.2% 2.9% 4.7% 6.6% 3.8%
Saskatchewan Greens led by Shawn Setyo 2% 1% 3.1% 2.3% 1% 3.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 3.5%
Another Party 2.4% 1.9% 2.9% 3.1% 1.1% 3.9% 1% 3.1% 1.6% 2.6%
Undecided 16.7% 14.8% 18.5% 18.6% 18.8% 18.1% 8.5% 16.1% 17% 16.7%
Unweighted Frequency 753 466 287 198 207 203 145 148 188 417
Weighted Frequency 753 375 378 230 182 200 141 165 205 384

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe 51.1% 59.4% 42.9% 51.7% 53% 46.5% 54.2% 43.8% 42.3% 59%
NDP led by Ryan Meili 29.7% 25.7% 33.5% 29.4% 27.6% 27.5% 35.7% 37.2% 38.6% 21.6%
Saskatchewan Liberals led by Naveed Anwar 5.3% 4.4% 6.2% 5.9% 4.8% 6.3% 3.8% 5.5% 7.3% 4.2%
Saskatchewan Greens led by Shawn Setyo 2.2% 1% 3.4% 2.3% 1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.7% 3.8%
Another Party 3% 2.4% 3.7% 4.2% 1.1% 4.8% 1% 3.7% 1.6% 3.5%
Undecided 8.7% 7% 10.3% 6.4% 12.5% 11.1% 3.9% 9.2% 9. 6% 7.9%
Unweighted Frequency 753 466 287 198 207 203 145 148 188 417
Weighted Frequency 753 375 378 230 182 200 141 165 205 384

(decided and leaning voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe 55.8% 63.8% 47.8% 54.9% 60.5% 52.2% 56.3% 48.2% 46.7% 63.9%
NDP led by Ryan Meili 32.6% 27.6% 37.4% 31.7% 31.7% 31.1% 37.2% 40.9% 42.8% 23.6%
Saskatchewan Liberals led by Naveed Anwar 5.9% 4.9% 6.9% 6.4% 5.4% 7% 4% 6.3% 8% 4.6%
Saskatchewan Greens led by Shawn Setyo 2.4% 1.1% 3.8% 2.5% 1.2% 4.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 4.1%
Another Party 3.3% 2.6% 4% 4.5% 1.2% 5.5% 1.1% 4.1% 1.7% 3.8%
Unweighted Frequency 690 434 256 185 184 181 140 134 170 386
Weighted Frequency 690 344 346 211 167 183 129 151 187 352
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Scott Moe?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 42.9% 49% 36.8% 36.9% 41.2% 42.7% 55.1% 35.1% 36% 49.9%
Unfavourable 23.8% 22.6% 25% 20.9% 25.3% 25% 25% 28.4% 28% 19.7%
Not Familiar with Scott Moe 3.6% 3% 4.3% 5.6% 4% 2.9% 1% 5.6% 5.5% 1.7%
Not sure 29.7% 25.4% 34% 36.6% 29.6% 29.5% 18.9% 30.9% 30.5% 28.7%
Unweighted Frequency 753 466 287 198 207 203 145 148 188 417
Weighted Frequency 753 375 378 230 182 200 141 165 205 384

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Ryan Meili?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 22.4% 17.4% 27.3% 21.4% 17.7% 21.1% 32% 26.2% 35% 14.1%
Unfavourable 26.9% 37.7% 16.1% 21.5% 28.3% 30.9% 28.1% 24.5% 23% 30%
Not Familiar with Ryan Meili 8.7% 8% 9.4% 13.3% 10.7% 5% 3.7% 7% 8.4% 9.6%
Not sure 42% 36.8% 47.2% 43.8% 43.3% 42.9% 36.2% 42.4% 33.6% 46.3%
Unweighted Frequency 753 466 287 198 207 203 145 148 188 417
Weighted Frequency 753 375 378 230 182 200 141 165 205 384

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Naveed Anwar?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 6.9% 6.5% 7.3% 7.2% 6.1% 9.4% 3.8% 10.6% 12% 2.6%
Unfavourable 25.9% 34.3% 17.6% 25.7% 26.2% 25.6% 26.4% 20% 25.6% 28.7%
Not Familiar with Naveed Anwar 20.7% 18.3% 23% 21.9% 21.5% 19.6% 19.2% 21% 18.6% 21.7%
Not sure 46.5% 40.8% 52.1% 45.2% 46.1% 45.3% 50.6% 48.4% 43.9% 47%
Unweighted Frequency 753 466 287 198 207 203 145 148 188 417
Weighted Frequency 753 375 378 230 182 200 141 165 205 384

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Shawn Setyo?

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Regina Saskatoon Rest of SK
Favourable 3.2% 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 3.6% 4.3% 2.1% 1.6% 5.1% 2.8%
Unfavourable 18.6% 24.6% 12.6% 19% 18.5% 14.7% 23.5% 16% 21.2% 18.2%
Not Familiar with Shawn Setyo 28.5% 24% 33% 28.3% 30.1% 30.5% 23.8% 28.9% 28.1% 28.6%
Not sure 49.8% 47.6% 51.9% 50.2% 47.8% 50.5% 50.6% 53.6% 45.7% 50.3%
Unweighted Frequency 753 466 287 198 207 203 145 148 188 417
Weighted Frequency 753 375 378 230 182 200 141 165 205 384
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held
today, which party would you vote
for?
(first four responses randomized)
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe
Saskatchewan New Democratic Party led
by Ryan Meili
Saskatchewan Liberal Party led by
Naveed Anwar
Green Party of Saskatchewan led by
Shawn Setyo
Another Party
Undecided
And which party are you leaning
towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Saskatchewan Party led by Scott Moe
Saskatchewan New Democratic Party led
by Ryan Meili
Saskatchewan Liberal Party led by
Naveed Anwar
Green Party of Saskatchewan led by
Shawn Setyo
Another Party
Undecided
(order of the following four responses
were randomized)
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Scott Moe?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Scott Moe
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Ryan Meili?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Ryan Meili
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Naveed
Anwar?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Naveed Anwar
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Shawn Setyo?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Shawn Setyo
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 14th
and January 15th, 2019 among a sample of 830 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in
Saskatchewan. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of Saskatchewan.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from random digit dialing. Respondents were asked the
additional question of what region of the country they resided in. In each case, respondents
were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. In the case of the first survey, the calls were staggered over times of day and two
days to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. In the case of
random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample of the survey was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016
Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for
weighting are age, gender, and region.

The margin of error for the first poll is +/- 3.4% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.54%, Females: +/-
5.78%, 18-34 age group: +/- 6.96%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.81%, 50-64 age group: +/- 6.88%,
65+ age group: +/- 8.14%, Saskatoon: +/- 8.06%, Regina: +/- 6.42%, Rest of Saskatchewan:
+/- 4.8%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.