POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 30TH JANUARY 2019, 6 AM AST

UltraPoll - Newfoundland
and Labrador Edition
Voter Intention Numbers
30th January 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between January 12th to
14th, 2019 among a sample of 583 adults, 18
years of age or older, living in Newfoundland
and Labrador. The survey was conducted using
automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on both landlines
and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerical
available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 4.07%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority
NDP government in Alberta, and was the only
polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet
also accurately predicted the Miami & New York
City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and
the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet
Research is a member of the World Association for
Public Opinion Research and meets international
and Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PCs AND LIBERALS ARE IN A STATISTICAL TIE

30 January 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives have surged and find
themselves in a statistical tie with the governing Liberals with an election scheduled
later this year.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration
of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 583 Newfoundland and Labrador residents
between January 12th and January 14th. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.07%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals continue their slide at less than an ideal time with an election on the
horizon,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals have 42% support (-2.6% since
November), while the PCs come in with 43.3% (+4.2%). The NDP led by Gerry Rogers
have 11.3% (-1.3%).

The PCs lead among men while the Liberals lead among women. The PCs have a
strong lead among 18-34s, and the Liberals have a significant advantage among voters
older than 65. The Liberals have nearly a five point lead in St. John’s while the PCs have
almost a three point lead in the rest of the province.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
All Voters vote for?

Undecided 16.8%

Another Party 2.5% Liberals 35.3%

NDP 9.2%
All Voters

Decided andConservatives
Progressive Leaning 36.1%Voters

Liberals Another
Progressive Party 3.2%
Conservatives NDP Another Party Undecided
NDP 11.5%

Liberals 42%

Decided and Leaning Voters

Progressive Conservatives 43.3%

Liberals Progressive Conservatives NDP Another Party

 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 35.3% 32.3% 38.2% 29.4% 27.5% 38.9% 44.5% 34.4% 35.6%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 36.1% 40% 32.4% 33% 35.6% 39.1% 35.6% 29.6% 37.7%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 9.2% 8.5% 9.9% 13.2% 13% 7% 4.4% 14% 8%
Another Party 2.5% 3% 2.1% 1.6% 5.3% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% 2.8%
Undecided 16.8% 16.2% 17.4% 22.8% 18.6% 13.1% 14.1% 20.8% 15.8%
Unweighted Frequency 583 313 270 98 144 184 157 260 323
Weighted Frequency 583 282 301 131 141 174 137 120 463

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 39.5% 35.3% 43.4% 31.6% 34.1% 42.7% 48.4% 38.7% 39.7%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 40.6% 44.4% 37% 42.2% 38.2% 42.2% 39.5% 34.2% 42.3%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 10.7% 10.3% 11% 16.3% 13.3% 8.4% 5.3% 17.1% 9%
Another Party 3% 3.9% 2.1% 1.6% 6.3% 1.8% 2.5% 1.6% 3.4%
Undecided 6.3% 6.1% 6.4% 8.3% 8% 4.9% 4.4% 8.5% 5.7%
Unweighted Frequency 583 313 270 98 144 184 157 260 323
Weighted Frequency 583 282 301 131 141 174 137 120 463

(decided and leaning voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ St. John's Rest of NL
Liberals led by Dwight Ball 42% 37.5% 46.3% 34.4% 37.2% 44.9% 50.6% 42.2% 42%
Progressive Conservatives led by Ches Crosbie 43.3% 47.3% 39.6% 46% 41.5% 44.3% 41.2% 37.4% 44.8%
NDP led by Gerry Rogers 11.5% 11.1% 11.9% 17.9% 14.5% 8.9% 5.6% 18.7% 9.6%
Another Party 3.2% 4.2% 2.2% 1.7% 6.8% 1.9% 2.6% 1.7% 3.6%
Unweighted Frequency 543 292 251 91 132 170 150 237 306
Weighted Frequency 543 263 280 122 132 162 128 112 431
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held
today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
What is your gender?
Male
Female
What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older

And which party are you

leaning towards? (only asked of
respondents who were undecided
in previous question)
Liberal Party of Newfoundland and
Labrador led by Dwight Ball
Progressive Conservative Party of
Newfoundland and Labrador led by
Ches Crosbie
Newfoundland and Labrador New
Democratic Party led by Gerry Rogers
Another Party
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between January 12th and 14th,
2019, among a sample of 583 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Newfoundland and Labrador.
The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviews on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
Newfoundland and Labrador.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party
organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. In both cases,
respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.07% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.54%, Females: +/- 5.93%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 9.9%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.17%, 50-64 age group: +/- 7.72%, 65+ age group:
+/- 7.82%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not
limited to coverage error, and measurement error.