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GICS Sector Consumer Discretionary Summary This company is one of the world's largest automobile manufacturers, and is the
Sub-Industry Automobile Manufacturers largest manufacturer of motorcycles.
Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P Capital IQ, Vickers, company reports)
52-Wk Range $33.87– 24.03 S&P Oper. EPS 2017E 2.24 Market Capitalization(B) $53.149 Beta 1.01
Trailing 12-Month EPS $1.59 S&P Oper. EPS 2018E 2.59 Yield (%) 2.37 S&P 3-Yr. Proj. EPS CAGR(%) 5
Trailing 12-Month P/E 18.6 P/E on S&P Oper. EPS 2017E 13.2 Dividend Rate/Share $0.70 S&P Quality Ranking NR
$10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $10,144 Common Shares Outstg. (M) 1,802.3 Institutional Ownership (%) 3
35
this, Honda has displayed generally consistent
30 growth in international sales in recent years.
25
Revenue/Earnings Data
Revenue (Million $)
Volume(Mil.)
18
6
13 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
4 2017 32,173 -- -- -- --
2 2016 30,537 29,646 29,790 31,738 121,794
0
2015 29,270 28,990 28,744 28,141 115,209
5 4 3 2014 28,693 29,234 30,087 30,137 118,271
1 2013 30,424 28,890 29,871 29,743 119,354
OND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SON 2012 21,023 24,277 25,125 30,359 100,746
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Earnings Per ADS ($)
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
2017 0.90 -- -- -- E2.24
Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst Tzyy Loon Ng on Aug 02, 2016 09:55 AM, when the stock traded at $27.29. 2016 0.85 0.58 0.57 -0.45 1.60
Highlights Investment Rationale/Risk 2015 0.80 0.76 0.66 0.46 --
2014 0.69 0.68 0.89 0.92 3.18
➤ We estimate a 5.6% lower total revenues in yen ➤ We see Honda benefiting from rising non- 2013 0.91 0.58 0.53 0.46 2.46
in FY 17 (Mar.), boosted by higher global pro- Japan Asia sales. However, we think safety and 2012 0.22 0.43 0.34 0.50 1.49
duction but more than offset by the significant quality concerns, particularly on the Takata Fiscal year ended Mar. 31. Next earnings report expected: Early
yen strengthening against major currencies. supplied airbags will pressure Honda's near- November. EPS Estimates based on S&P Capital IQ Operating
Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported in Company
We see growth in demand in most regions, but term earnings. Longer term this pressure reports.
some regions face challenges. We think its should abate as Honda will drop Takata as a
strategic move to sell more motorcycles in Asia supplier. In addition to strengthening global au- Dividend Data
will help to cushion the falling sales in other tomotive demand, we see Honda benefiting
Amount Date Ex-Div. Stk. of Payment
emerging markets (e.g. Brazil). We think the from a focus on more fuel-efficient vehicles. ($) Decl. Date Record Date
safety and quality concerns, particularly on the ➤ Risks to our recommendation and target price 0.191 -- -- Jun 29 Sep 1 '16
Takata supplied airbags, will pressure Honda's include slower-than-expected unit sales in the 0.155 -- -- Sep 29 Dec 7 '15
earnings growth in the near term. Longer term, U.S. and elsewhere on any weakening of con- 0.168 -- -- Dec 30 Mar 4 '16
we think this will abate as Honda has decided sumer spending, a larger-than-projected in- 0.184 -- -- Mar 30 Jun 24 '16
to drop Takata as its airbag supplier for its fu- crease in raw material costs and a stronger- Dividends have been paid since 1949. Source: Company reports.
ture car models. than-anticipated Japanese yen. Past performance is not an indication of future performance and
➤ We do not expect Honda s net profit margin to ➤ Our 12-month target price of $30 is based on a should not be relied upon as such.
recover to the FY2014-level, despite its continu- multiple of 13.4X our FY 17 earnings per ADS es-
ous effort to cut manufacturing cost and launch timate of $2.24. This is in line with its three-year
more high-end models, partly due to the recall year-end average multiple. We believe the pre-
costs. We also think the rising competition in mium to the peer average of 7.8X is justified by
Japan and Asia markets may exert pressure on its diversified (more than 25% of revenues are
Honda s pricing power, especially with a from non-car segments) revenue base and its
stronger JPY ahead. stable EBITDA margin over the past three years
➤ We project earnings per ADS of $2.24 for FY 17 (8.0% to 9.9%).
and $2.59 for FY 18, translated at the recent yen
rate of JPY 101.32 per dollar.
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Stock Report | September 24, 2016 | NYS Symbol: HMC
CORPORATE OVERVIEW. Honda Motor Co. (HMC) is a leading manufacturer of automobiles, motorcycles, Investor Contact
and power products. The company aims to create value by offering high-end innovative products, estab- K. Amemiya (81-3-3423-1111)
lishing advanced customer relations activities, and building a foundation for new business projects.
The company's production operations are conducted primarily in 30 separate factories, four of which are Website
located in Japan. Principal overseas manufacturing facilities are located in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., http://www.honda.com
France, Italy, Spain, India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil and Mexico. HMC sells its
products in most countries worldwide. In FY 15, 85% of net sales were from outside Japan.
Officers
CORPORATE STRATEGY. In July, the new president and CEO, Takahiro Hachigo, expressed two themes
that the new "Team Honda" would act upon: First, advancement of the six-region global operation struc- CEO & Pres
ture. Second, continuous development of challenging products unique to Honda and delivering them to our T. Hachigo
customers around the world.
CFO
We expect it to continue to focus on environmental and energy-related issues. K. Takeuchi
MARKET PROFILE. We estimate 2016 U.S. light vehicle sales to rise 1.0% to 17.6 million units. We expect
gains in most other regions as well. Rising prosperity in emerging markets, led by China, should drive glob-
Board Members
al demand growth, and European demand should rise, partly offset by declines in Russia and in some
S. Aoyama T. Hachigo
emerging markets. We think higher volume in the U.S. and abroad versus 2015 will help corporate profits
M. Igarashi T. Ito
and cash flows. Positive factors we see in the U.S. include pent-up demand and widely available access to
consumer credit. The average vehicle is now above 11 years old, an industry record. We believe lower H. Kunii S. Kuraishi
gasoline prices are a positive for sales. Y. Matsumoto O. Motoki
K. Odaka T. Sekiguchi
IMPACT OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. The March 2011 major earthquake in Japan, combined with the K. Takeuchi Y. Yamane
tsunami and nuclear plant issues there, disrupted production at automakers and suppliers based in Japan,
as well as their operations abroad.
Domicile
In July 2015, Honda maintained its FY 16 financial forecasts, after earlier this year voluntarily switching to Japan
report under IFRS accounting standards for the year. It expects U.S. GAAP revenues of 13.85 trillion yen
(14.5 trillion yen using IFRS), operating profit of 660 million yen (685 million yen), profit before taxes of 650 Founded
billion (805 billion), and net income and earnings per share of 525 billion yen and 291.3, respectively, using 1946
both accounting measures.
Employees
In January, Honda lowered its IFRS revenues forecast to 14.55 billion yen, but left its profit metrics un- 208,399
changed. It had increased the revenues forecast to 14.6 billion in November.
Stockholders
FINANCIAL TRENDS. In FY 15, HMC's capital expenditures totaled about 723 billion yen, with depreciation NA
at 490 billion yen.
For further clarification on the terms used in this report, please visit www.spcapitaliq.com/stockreportguide
Per ADS Data ($) 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
Tangible Book Value 32.53 32.10 31.89 29.68 29.69 29.71 25.45 22.36 25.08 20.80
Cash Flow 4.94 7.54 7.78 6.59 3.82 5.92 3.98 4.30 6.17 8.96
Earnings 1.60 2.64 3.18 2.46 1.49 3.46 1.59 0.76 3.31 2.77
Dividends 0.64 0.54 0.69 0.63 NA 0.60 0.25 0.68 0.74 0.51
Payout Ratio 40% 20% 22% 26% Nil 17% 16% 89% 22% 18%
Calendar Year 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Prices:High 36.44 41.38 42.96 39.35 44.56 39.69 34.52 36.40 40.82 39.87
Prices:Low 28.61 28.83 35.15 28.50 27.52 28.33 20.28 17.35 31.29 27.10
P/E Ratio:High 23 16 14 16 30 11 22 48 12 14
P/E Ratio:Low 18 11 11 12 18 8 13 23 9 10
Data as originally reported in Company reports.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under
Review.
% Change
sales translation. Automotive NV.
60%
We estimate 2016 U.S. light vehicle sales will rise Year to date through August 31, the S&P Automobile
slightly to a cyclical peak of 17.4 million, before a Manufacturers Index was 6.1% lower, versus a 6.8%
softening 1.5% to 2% in 2017. For 2016, we expect increase for S&P 1500 Index. In 2015, the
gains in most other regions too. Rising prosperity in sub-industry index was down 5.9%, compared to a 10%
emerging markets, led by China (even as growth 1.0% decline for the S&P 1500.
there slows), should drive global demand growth,
and European demand should rise, partly offset by --Efraim Levy, CFA
declines in some emerging markets. We think higher -40%
difficulties should be partly offsetting factors. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
November 4, 2015
12:13 pm ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON ADSS OF
HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD. (HMC 32.13***): We raise our FY 16 earnings per ADS
estimate by $0.05 to $2.45 (JPY 298 per share), and FY 17's by $0.05 to $2.82. We
keep our 12-month target price of $35, or 14.4X our FY 16 projection. This
compares to the stock's three year P/E multiple average of 14.5X and the peer
average of 11.3X. We think the weak yen will boost Honda's overseas sales, but a
soft Japan market should partly offset. A shift to increased focus on emerging
markets should help motorcycle sales. HMC posts Sep-Q earnings per ADS of
JPY 70.88 ($0.58), vs. JPY66.32, below the Capital IQ consensus estimate. /Tzyy
Loon Ng, /E. Levy-CFA
August 3, 2015
11:24 am ET ... S&P CAPITAL IQ MAINTAINS HOLD OPINION ON ADSS OF
Monthly Average Trend Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell No Opinion HMC Trend HOLD
B BH H WH S
1000
1000
1000
O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
0 M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
2015 2016
Fiscal Years Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E
2018 2.59 2.59 2.59 1 11.4
2017 2.24 2.24 2.24 1 13.2
2018 vs. 2017 16% 16% 16% 0% -14%
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Stock Report | September 24, 2016 | NYS Symbol: HMC
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Stock Report | September 24, 2016 | NYS Symbol: HMC
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