Sie sind auf Seite 1von 6

PP 7767/09/2011(028730)

RHB Research

Technical Research Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
8 RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

Dail y Trad ing St rat eg y

MARKET DATELINE 22 October 2010
Market Technical Reading
Fresh Opportunity To Retest 1,500...

Chart 1: FBM KLCI Daily Chart 2: FBM KLCI Intraday

Local Market Leads:

♦ Share prices in Bursa Malaysia edged higher on Thursday, after a rally in the overnight Wall Street and further
rebound in most of the regional markets lifted sentiment in the local bourse.

♦ Despite a cap by renewed profit-taking activities and news that China’s 3Q GDP growth has slowed to 9.6% yoy
from 2Q’s 10.3%, the local market slowly regained its buying momentum towards the closing after the regional
markets’ sentiment improved in late afternoon.

♦ For the day, the FBM KLCI gained 4.24 pts or 0.29% to end at 1,491.02, led by fresh buying on CIMB (+9sen) and
Genting (+8sen).

♦ Besides, selective stocks like SPSetia (+18sen), YTL (+15sen), KPJ (+10sen) and AnnJoo (+10sen) also attracted
strong buying support on constant buying momentum.

♦ Turnover remained strong at 1.43bn shares, versus 1.49bn shares a day earlier. Market breadth stayed bullish
with 459 gainers and 301 losers.

Technical Interpretations:

♦ After fluctuating at between the 1,488.44 low and 1,495.84 high, the FBM KLCI settled the day at 1,491.02 with a
“star-like” candle on the chart, suggesting mild weakness in today’s trading.

♦ But given its ability to recapture the 10-day SMA of 1,489 and further improvement on the short-term momentum
readings, the index stands a good chance to refresh its short-term positive sentiment.

♦ In fact, if it manages to sustain at above the 10-day SMA today, the FBM KLCI will likely be able to rechallenge the
recent high of 1,503.82 soon. Positively, upon removal of 1,503.82, it will likely head towards the historical high at
1,524.69 on follow-through buying momentum.

♦ On the downside, strong support can be expected at the 10-day SMA and a technical gap near 1,472.32 -
1,476.05, with the medium-term support near 1,450 and the 40-day SMA of 1,460.
Please read important disclosures at the end of this report.

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 1 of 6
available for download from
22 October 2010

Daily Trading Strategy:

♦ Although the closing with a “star-like” candle indicates a slight weakness on the FBM KLCI in the immediate term,
we favour its ability to crossover the 10-day SMA of 1,489 yesterday.

♦ A sustainable trading at above the 10-day SMA means a return to the positive trading sentiment in the short term.

♦ For now, the 10-day SMA becomes its immediate support level on the chart, followed by the tiny technical gap
near 1,472.32 - 1,476.05.

♦ In addition, the robust trading volume and the healthy rotational plays are expected to cap profit-taking pressure
in the near term, in our view.

♦ As such, we see a fresh opportunity to retest the 1,500 psychological level and the recent high of 1,503.82, before
gearing up to challenge the historical high at 1,524.69.

Table 2 : Major Indices & Commodities

Table 1 : Daily Statistics Change Change
Scoreboard 15 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct Local Key Indices Closing
(Pts) (%)
Gainers 324 299 438 385 459 FBM KLCI 1,491.02 4.24 0.3
Losers 405 468 369 408 301 FBM 100 9,833.35 33.05 0.3
Unchanged 341 298 276 293 316 FBM ACE 4,292.24 47.76 1.1
Untraded 296 306 288 286 296 Major Overseas
Market Cap Dow Jones 11,146.57 38.60 0.3
Turnover Nasdaq 2,459.67 2.28 0.1
(mln shares) 1,021 1,331 1,500 1,489 1,429 S&P 500 1,180.26 2.09 0.2
Value FTSE 5,757.86 28.93 0.5
(RM mln) 1,647 1,610 1,820 1,803 1,848 Hang Seng 23,649.48 92.98 0.4
Jakarta Composite 3,588.01 9.06 0.3
Currency Nikkei 225 9,376.48 -5.12 -0.1
MYR vs US Seoul Composite 1,874.69 4.25 0.2
Dollar 3.0800 3.1005 3.1070 3.1165 3.1045 Shanghai Composite 2,983.53 -20.42 -0.7
SET 988.8 0.69 0.1
Source: RHBInvest & Bloomberg Straits Times 3,163.53 -15.62 -0.5
Taiwan Weighted 8,131.23 6.61 0.1
India Sensex 20,260.58 388.43 2.0
Major Commodities
NYMEX Crude Oil
(US$/barrel) 80.56 -1.98 -2.4
FCPO – Third Month
(RM/metric ton) 2,990.00 6.00 0.2
US Interest Rate Current Last Updated
21 Sep
Overnight Fed Fund Rate 0-0.25% Unch
Next FOMC meeting 2-3 Nov 2010

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 2 of 6
available for download from
22 October 2010

Chart 3: FKLI Daily Chart 4: FKLI Intraday

Technical Interpretations:

♦ In tandem with the rebound in the cash market, the FKLI extended its recovery momentum for a third consecutive
day yesterday.

♦ But due to ongoing profit-taking activities, the futures index was stuck in a tight trading range at between 1,491
and 1,498.50, before ending the day up 4.00 pts or 0.27% to 1,495.00.

♦ Chart wise, with a formation of a “doji” candle on the chart, the futures index displays indecision for its immediate
trend direction.

♦ Still, we believe the improvement in the overall technical platform is in favour of a further rebound for the FKLI.

♦ We believe the FKLI is likely to retest the recent high of 1,501.00 as soon as today.

♦ And once 1,501.00 is cleared, it will turn the short-term trading sentiment back to the positive territory. The next
upside target is seen at the all-time high level of 1,536.

♦ Its strong support is at the 10-day SMA of 1,487 now, while the medium-term support is underpinned by the 40-
day SMA of 1,460 and the key level at 1,450.

Daily Trading Strategy:

♦ Stay bullish, with anticipation of a retest of 1,501 soon.

♦ Traders can prepare to turn more aggresive on the positive end, while expecting further rally towards its historical
high of 1,536 in the near term.

♦ The trading band for the FKLI is pegged at 1,492 - 1,509 today.

Table 3: FKLI Closings

FKLI (Month)
Contracts Open High Low Close Chg (Pts) Settle Volume Open Interest
Oct 10 1494.50 1498.50 1491.00 1495.00 4.00 1495.00 4348 19909
Nov 10 1495.50 1498.50 1491.00 1495.00 3.50 1495.00 364 964
Dec 10 1494.50 1497.50 1491.00 1495.00 4.50 1495.00 57 372
Mar 11 1495.00 1497.00 1493.50 1493.50 3.50 1495.50 3 111

Source: Bursa Malaysia

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 3 of 6
available for download from
22 October 2010

Chart 5: US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Daily Chart 6: US Nasdaq Composite Daily

US Market Leads:

♦ Wall Street ended higher in a volatile day on Thursday, as the stronger-than-expected earnings news managed to
offset the fresh selling in financial stocks and a rebound in the US dollar.

♦ Upon opening, investors were boosted by another set of upbeat earnings from key corporates, like McDonald’s
(+1.3%), EBay (+6%) and Travelers (+0.6%).

♦ Though profit-taking pressure later set in, partly due to selling in financial stocks amid ongoing worries over Bank
of America’s (-3.3%) possible bonds repurchase problem and a 0.4% rebound in the greenback, the US markets
still managed to stay positive at the end of the day.

♦ In economic news, initial unemployment claims dropped more than expected by 23,000 to 452,000 last week.

♦ US light sweet crude oil futures for Dec delivery dropped US$1.98 or 2.4% to US$82.54/barrel.

Technical Interpretations:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

♦ After rallying as much as 106 pts in the early session, the DJIA pared down its gains to only 38.60 pts or 0.35%
to 11,146.57 last night.

♦ Sealed with a small positive candle and that the stochastic oscillators did not cut a fresh “buy” signal, we see
possible struggle ahead to gain its upside momentum.

♦ However, if it manages to remove yesterday’s high of 11,213.54, it may also remove the 11,250 and the Apr’s
high of 11,258.01 soon.

♦ Supports are seen at the 11,000 level and the 21-day SMA of 10,947.

Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq)

♦ The Nasdaq Composite index inched up 2.28 pts or 0.09% to 2,459.67 in a choppy market, after fluctuating at
between the 2,436.34 low and 2,482.14 high for the day.

♦ And with its failure to overtake 2,470 and a negative candle on the chart, this spells possible profit-taking dips
towards the 21-day SMA of 2,403 soon.

♦ But should it clear 2,470 and the recent high of 2,482.14, it will refresh hopes for a further rally towards the Apr’s
high of 2,535.28 and the 2,630 hurdle.

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 4 of 6
available for download from
22 October 2010

Daily Technical Watch:

Chart 7: BjCorp Daily Chart 8: BjCorp Intraday

Berjaya Corporation (3395)

A renewed bullish sentiment on the stock likely…

♦ BjCorp fell into a downtrend after losing the important resistance level of RM1.55 in May 2010.

♦ The downtrend was also confirmed by the negative cut on the 10-day SMA to below the 40-day SMA, also in May.

♦ The steady downtrend removed the RM1.33, RM1.20 and RM1.06 levels in a series of downswing and pressed the
stock to a low of RM0.925 in early Sep 2010.

♦ However, from the low, the stock rebounded to above the key level of RM1.06 in late Sep, and hit a high of
RM1.17, before settled with a sideways consolidation trend near the crucial level of RM1.06.

♦ During the recovery in Sep, the 10-day SMA has also recovered to above the 40-day SMA to suggest a potential
medium-term positive signal going forward.

♦ Due to the recent consolidation, the 10-day SMA was once again dragged towards the 40-day SMA.

♦ But, as the stock surged to close at RM1.09 yesterday, the 10-day SMA recorded an uptick, just in time when it
touched the 40-day SMA. This appearance suggests a renewed bullish sentiment on the stock.

♦ Should it sustain at above RM1.06 in the immediate term, buying momentum is expected to improve drastically,
hence leading a retest to the RM1.20 resistance soon, in our view.

♦ Beyond that hurdle, the stock could accelerate towards the RM1.33 and RM1.55 levels on follow-through

Technical Readings:

♦ 10-day SMA: RM1.052

♦ 40-day SMA: RM1.05

♦ Support: IS = RM1.06 S1 = RM0.88 S2 = RM0.75

♦ Resistance: IR = RM1.20 R1 = RM1.33 R2 = RM1.55

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 5 of 6
available for download from
22 October 2010


This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.

A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively Page 6 of 6
available for download from