2/1/2019 Conflict early warning - Wikipedia

Conflict early warning

The field of conflict early warning seeks to forecast the outbreak of armed conflict, or, at minimum, to detect the
early escalation of violence, with the objective of preventing the outbreak or the further escalation of violence in order
to save lives.[1]

Initial conceptions of conflict early warning materialized in the 1970s and 1980s but the field really emerged on the
international policy agenda after the end of the Cold War.[2] Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been
developed for conflict forecasting and conflict monitoring.[3] Qualitative methodologies typically draw on local area
experts with extensive knowledge on one country or region. This is the approach taken by the International Crisis
Group,[4] for example. In contrast, quantitative methodologies quantify conflict trends and use mathematical
techniques to forecast future trends or "events of interest" (EOIs) such as the onset of conflicts.[5] For example, the
Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA) takes this approach.[6] Some approaches to conflict early warning combine both qualitative and quantitative
methodologies, such as Swisspeace's formerly operational project called FAST.[7]

Contents
Origins
See also
References
Further reading

Origins
The unanticipated events of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and that of the Falklands War in 1982 provoked a series of
debates over the lack of early warning. The incident over the Falklands had taken the United Nations completely by
surprise and it is said "no map of the islands was available in the Secretariat when the invasion began".[8] The initial
drivers, however, were humanitarian agencies "driven by the need for accurate and timely predictions of refugee flows
to enable effective contingency planning".[2] After the end of the Cold War, political scientists at leading academic
institutions began modifying old Cold War models of conflict to understand the onset of new wars. The horrors of the
1994 Rwandan genocide also spurred increased interest in operational conflict early warning systems. The FAST
project of Swisspeace[7] and the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) were responses to the
genocide.

See also
Conflict resolution
Continental Early Warning System
International Alert
Preventive diplomacy

References
1. Rupesinghe, Kumar; Kuroda, Michiko, eds. (1992). Early warning and conflict resolution. New York: St. Martin's
Press. ISBN 0312085648. OCLC 25834272 (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/25834272).

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2. Nyheim, David (18 May 2008). "Can violence, war, and state collapse be prevented? The future of operational
conflict early warning and response systems" (http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.189.303
&rep=rep1&type=pdf). 10th meeting of the DAC Fragile States Group and Conflict, Peace and Development Co-
operation. Paris: The DAC Network on Conflict, Peace and Development Co-Operation & The DAC Fragile States
Group Joint Session. pp. 7, 14.
3. Austin, Alexander (2004). "Early warning and the field: a cargo cult science?" (http://edoc.vifapol.de/opus/volltext
e/2011/2575/pdf/austin_handbook.pdf) (PDF). In Austin, Alex; Fischer, Martina; Ropers, Norbert. Transforming
ethnopolitical conflict: the Berghof handbook. Berghof Forschungszentrum für Konstruktive Konfliktbearbeitung;
Berghof Research Center for Constructive Conflict Management. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für
Sozialwissenschaften. doi:10.1007/978-3-663-05642-3_7 (https://doi.org/10.1007%2F978-3-663-05642-3_7).
ISBN 3810039403. OCLC 57283507 (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/57283507).
4. Grono, Nick (11 November 2006). "The challenge of anticipating conflict" (https://web.archive.org/web/201008082
35619/http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/speeches/2006/the-challenge-of-anticipating-conflict.aspx).
crisisgroup.org. International Crisis Group. Archived from the original (http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-ty
pe/speeches/2006/the-challenge-of-anticipating-conflict.aspx) on 2010-08-08. Retrieved 2016-04-19.
5. Chadefaux, Thomas (January 2014). "Early warning signals for war in the news" (https://www.researchgate.net/pr
ofile/Thomas_Chadefaux/publication/256044330_Early_Warning_Signals_for_War_in_the_News/links/0c96052a9
92664d50d000000.pdf) (PDF). Journal of Peace Research. 51 (1): 5–18. doi:10.1177/0022343313507302 (https://
doi.org/10.1177%2F0022343313507302).
6. O'Brien, Sean P. (March 2010). "Crisis early warning and decision support: contemporary approaches and
thoughts on future research". International Studies Review. 12 (1): 87–104. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00914.x
(https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1468-2486.2009.00914.x).
7. Krummenacher, Heinz (2006). "Computer assisted early warning—the FAST example" (https://books.google.com/
books?id=o6Fv7XFhQgMC&pg=PA71). In Trappl, Robert. Programming for peace: computer-aided methods for
international conflict resolution and prevention. Advances in group decision and negotiation. 2. Dordrecht:
Springer Verlag. pp. 71–80. doi:10.1007/1-4020-4390-2_4 (https://doi.org/10.1007%2F1-4020-4390-2_4).
ISBN 1402043775. OCLC 63764074 (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/63764074).
8. Peck, Connie (1998). Sustainable peace: the role of the UN and regional organizations in preventing conflict.
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict series. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. p. 72 (https://boo
ks.google.com/books?id=zycKkwkkzNAC&pg=PA72). ISBN 0847685608. OCLC 37180967 (https://www.worldcat.
org/oclc/37180967).

Further reading
Alker, Hayward R. (2005). "Designing information resources for transboundary conflict early warning networks" (ht
tps://books.google.com/books?id=EfJFgAPK9ccC&pg=PA215). In Latham, Robert; Sassen, Saskia. Digital
formations: IT and new architectures in the global realm. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. pp. 215–241.
ISBN 0691119864. OCLC 57069068 (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/57069068).
Alker, Hayward R.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Rupesinghe, Kumar, eds. (2001). Journeys through conflict: narratives and
lessons (https://books.google.com/books?id=I0soGy_LehMC). Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
ISBN 0742510271. OCLC 46777394 (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/46777394).
Brahm, Eric (January 2005). "Early warning" (http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/early-warning).
beyondintractability.org. Retrieved 2016-04-19.
Davies, John L.; Gurr, Ted Robert, eds. (1998). Preventive measures: building risk assessment and crisis early
warning systems (https://books.google.com/books?id=maWR6_GLMH4C). Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
ISBN 0847688739. OCLC 39627445 (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/39627445).

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