Suppose you are marketing a new product, but both the demand and the unit

cost are uncertain. The best estimates and unit costs for the coming year are
shown below (unit cost in thousand dollars, demand in thousand units):

Demand 20 30 40
Probably 0.2 0.6 0.2
Unid cost 5 4.5 4

The probabilities of sale of the product are also shown in the table. If any
amount which remains unsold at the end of the year is lost and the additional
units requested increase the unit cost by $ 0.5 (to the base price of the initial
order), please answer the following: • If the product is sold for US$ 15.5 per
unit, how many items would you recommend to be produced? What is the
value of perfect information ($)?

SOLUCIÓN
Pv = 15.5

20 30 40
20 210 325 450
30 145 330 455
40 90 265 460

Estados de la naturaleza Enfoqu

Alternativa 20 30 40 Optimista
20 210 325 450 450
30 145 330 455 455
40 90 265 460 460*

Enfoque de valor esperado con información perfecta

VE(20)= 327
VE(30)= 318
VE(40)= 269
VEwolp= 327

VEwlp 332

VELP= │VEwlp-VEwolp│
VELP= │322-327│
VELP= 5

R/ Con base a los enfoques aplicados anteriormente tant

con información imperfecta, recomiendo que se produzc
información perfecta es 5000 d
R/ Con base a los enfoques aplicados anteriormente tant
con información imperfecta, recomiendo que se produzc
información perfecta es 5000 d
 20 30
20 R11=│210-210│ R12=│330-325│
30 R21=│210-145│ R22=│330-330│
40 R31=│210-90│ R32=│330-265│

Enfoques
Conservador Arrepentimiento Laplace
210* 10* 328,3*
145 65 310
90 120 271.7

│VEwlp-VEwolp│
│322-327│
5

ados anteriormente tanto sin información perfecta como

omiendo que se produzcan 20 mil unidades. El valor de la
mación perfecta es 5000 dólares.
By: José Sarmientopérez Polo
 40 20 30 40 Arrepenti
R13=│460-450│ 20 0 5 10 10
R23=│460-455│ 30 65 0 5 65
R33=│460-460│ 40 120 65 0 120