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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT

February 1, 2018

UNION BUDGET 2018-19


- Impact

Research Team 1
UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT POSITIVE

Auto: Boost to agricultural spending, infrastructure activities


Measure Meaning Stock Impact
 Strong focus on farmers with aim to  Aimed at boosting agricultural and rural  Positive for M&M, VST Tillers, Escorts,
double the agricultural income by 2022, incomes. Could increase demand of Hero MotoCorp
150% hike in the MSP of kharif tractors, tillers and entry level two-
wheelers.

 Government is confident to complete  Will increase infrastructure activities  Positive for Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland,
National Highways exceeding 9000 which help all the CV manufacturer VECV
kilometers length during 2017-18.
Bharatmala Pariyojana has been
approved for providing seamless
connectivity of interior and backward
areas and borders of the country to
develop about 35000 kms in Phase-I at
an estimated cost of Rs5.3trn.

Increase in Customs duty Segments Previous (%) New (%) Stock Impact

Truck and Bus radial tyres NA 10 15 Positive for JK Tyre, CEAT, MRF, Apollo Tyre

Valuation
CMP TP Mkt Cap Revenue (Rs mn) Ebitda (Rs mn) EPS (Rs) BVPS (Rs) PER (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE(%) RoCE(%)
Companies
(Rs) (Rs) Reco (Rs mn) FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY20E FY20E

MARUTI SUZUKI 9,514 9,100 HOLD 2,874,035 923,252 1,051,198 143,636 164,994 336.7 394.7 1574 1826 28.3 24.1 6.0 5.2 20.1 17.5 23.2 24.7

TVS Motor Co 695 570 SELL 330,233 174,002 199,775 14,450 17,368 18.6 22.8 73 88 37.3 30.5 9.6 7.9 23.4 19.5 28.4 27.9
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Banking: Dry as Dust!
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 Bonds rated ‘A’ be allowed as  Concerned regulators of provident fund  Positive for all credit rating companies
investments by various regulators or pension fund or any other regulated (CRISIL, ICRA, CARE etc)
fund which were allowing investments
only in bonds rated ‘AA’ and above will
now allow investments even in bonds
rated ‘A’. It will enhance demand for
credit rating of bonds.

 Lending target of Rs3 Lakh crore under  MUDRA refinances micro-credit. Higher  Postive for Micro finance companies
MUDRA lending target for MUDRA is positive for and small finance banks (Bharat
companies doing micro lending Financial Inclusion, Ujjivan SFB, Equitas
SFB etc)

 Fiscal deficit target of 3.5% for FY18  Higher than expected fiscal deficit will  Negative for banks specially PSU Banks
and 3.3% for FY19 lead to surge in bond yields leading to
treasury losses.

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Banking: Contd.
Valuation
CMP TP NII (Rs bn) Op.Pft (Rs bn) PAT (Rs bn) EPS (Rs) ABVPS (Rs) PER (x) P/ABV (x) ROA (%) ROE (%)
(Rs) (Rs) Reco FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E
Axis Bank 590 635 HOLD 190 223 170 198 40 77 15.6 30.1 206.9 242.6 37.8 19.6 2.9 2.4 0.6 1.0 6.5 11
HDFC Bank 1,991 2,200 BUY 399 478 323 386 174 212 68.0 82.7 397.9 464.6 29.3 24.1 5.0 4.3 1.8 1.9 18.1 18.9
IndusInd Bank 1,797 2130 BUY 76 96 69 86 38 48 62.8 80.8 393.2 466.2 28.6 22.2 4.6 3.9 2.0 2.0 18.5 19.8
Yes Bank 359 400 BUY 77 102 78 101 43 55 18.7 24.2 105.4 126.9 19.2 14.8 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.7 17.9 19.7
HDFC 1,970 2,175 ACCU 107 126 175 146 116 93 73.0 58.7 295.5 330.8 27.0 33.6 6.7 6.0 3.2 2.2 26.6 18.5
LIC Housing 531 625 ACCU 37 43 33 39 19 23 38.4 45.6 233.1 271.0 13.8 11.6 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.2 17.0 16.8
Repco Home Fin. 624 755 BUY 4 5 4 4 2 2 33.7 37.5 191.8 235.0 18.5 16.6 3.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 17.1 16.3
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Cement: A Long Row to Hoe!
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 In the year 2018-19, for creation of  Housing contributes 60% of demand for  UTCEM IN, ACEM IN, ACC IN, SRCM IN
livelihood and infrastructure in rural Cement sector
areas, the Ministries will spend
Rs14.34trn, including extra-budgetary
and non-budgetary resources of
Rs11.98trn. Apart from employment
due to farming activities and self-
employment, this expenditure will
create employment of 3.2bn person
days, 317k kilometers of rural roads,
5.1mn new rural houses and 18mn
toilets.

 Persons belonging to poor and middle  Effective interest rate can bring down  UTCEM IN, ACEM IN, ACC IN, SRCM IN
class are also being provided a great
relief in interest rates on housing
schemes.

 Government will make a dedicated  Sector funding could be stronger.  UTCEM IN, ACEM IN, ACC IN, SRCM IN
Affordable Housing Fund (AHF) in
National Housing Bank, funded from
priority sector lending shortfall and fully
serviced bonds authorized by the
Government of India. Further, National
Housing Bank Act is being amended to
transfer its equity from the Reserve
Bank of India to the Government.
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Cement: Contd.
Valuation
CMP TP Mkt Cap Revenue (Rs mn) Ebitda (Rs mn) EPS (Rs) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE(%) RoCE(%)
Companies
(Rs) (Rs) Reco (Rs mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY19E FY19E
Ultratech Cement 4,389 4,262 HOLD 1,205,173 286,697 318,234 58,200 70,330 90.0 149.0 48.8 29.5 20.8 17.0 14.7 17.9
Shree Cement 17,423 17,139 REDUCE 606,979 98,531 118,237 26,787 33,216 412.0 535.6 42.3 32.5 22.5 18.1 19.2 14.2
Ambuja Cement 265 268 HOLD 525,898 112,856 126,399 22,571 26,544 9.0 11.0 29.4 24.1 21.8 18.4 9.8 6.8
ACC Ltd 1,733 1,722 HOLD 325,445 147,561 150,326 19,597 20,137 48.9 62.9 35.5 27.6 16.5 16.2 12.1 12.5
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Industrials: Not with a bang but a whimper!
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 The Government’s estimated budgetary  The addition is 20% growth over last year--  LT IN, KNRC IN, SADE IN
and extra budgetary expenditure on which gives strong impetus in creation of
infrastructure for FY19 is Rs5.97trn fixed assets.
against estimated expenditure of
Rs4.94trn in 2017-18.

 The Government is making provision of  Additional focus towards fast tracking can  GVK IN, GRMI IN, JPVL IN
key linkages. This includes coal for power, resolve existing stranded projects--thereby,
power for railways and railway rakes for unlocking a huge potential.
coal--they all have been rationalized. The
Indian Prime Minister personally reviews
the targets and achievements in
infrastructure sectors. Using online
monitoring system of PRAGATI alone,
projects worth Rs9.46trn have been
facilitated and fast tracked.

 Smart Cities Mission aims at building 100  Here, the intent and further scope of  NBCC IN
Smart Cities with state-of- the-art monetization will improve the future
amenities. For 99 Cities, Government has potential.
doled out an outlay of Rs2.04trn. These
Cities have started implementing various
projects like Smart Command and Control
Centre, Smart Roads, Solar Rooftops,
Intelligent Transport Systems, Smart
Parks.

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Industrials: Contd.
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 River cleaning gains teeth. For instance,  The execution is strong. 47 projects have  ENGR IN
187 projects have been sanctioned under been completed and remaining projects are
the Namami Gange programme for at various stages of execution. All 4465
infrastructure development, river surface Ganga Grams – villages on the bank of river
cleaning, rural sanitation and other - have been declared open defecation free.
interventions at a cost of Rs167bn.

 The AMRUT programme focuses on  Water supply contracts for 494 projects  LT IN, NJCC IN, GAYP IN
providing water supply to all households worth Rs194bn and sewerage work
in 500 cities. State level plans of Rs776bn contract for 272 projects costing Rs124bn
for 500 cities. has been awarded.

 Government is confident to complete  Measures like asset recycling will create a  LT IN, KNRC IN, SADE IN
National Highways exceeding 9000 huge opportunity in the space.
kilometers during 2017-18. Bharatmala
Pariyojana has been approved for
providing seamless connectivity of interior
and backward areas and borders of the
country to develop about 35000 kms in
Phase-I at an estimated cost of Rs5.3trn.
To raise equity from the market for its
mature road assets, NHAI will consider
organizing its road assets into Special
Purpose Vehicles and use innovative
monetizing structures like Toll, Operate
and Transfer (TOT) and Infrastructure
Investment Funds (InvITs).

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Industrials: Contd.
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 Budgetary support to IIFCL  India Infrastructure Finance Corporation  General
Limited (IIFCL) will help finance major
infrastructure projects, including
investments in educational and health
infrastructure, on strategic and larger
societal benefit considerations.

 Railways’ Capex for the year 2018-19 has  This will strengthen the railway network  KPP IN, KECI IN, SIEM IN
been pegged at Rs1.4trn. A large part of and enhancing Railways’ carrying capacity.
the Capex is devoted to capacity creation. Also, gauge conversion would eliminate
This includes: 18,000 kilometers of capacity constraints and transform almost
doubling, third and fourth line works and entire network into Broad Gauge.
5000 kilometers of gauge conversion.

 Government is fast tracking electrification  This should translate EPC/CG opportunities  ABB IN, SIEM IN
of railway network. 4000 kilometers are in Railway electrification space.
targeted for commissioning during 2017-
18.

 Adequate number of rolling stock – 12000  Work on Eastern and Western dedicated
wagons, 5160 coaches and approximately Freight Corridors is in full swing. A major
700 locomotives are being procured programme has been initiated to
during 2018-19. strengthen infrastructure at the Goods
sheds and fast track commissioning of
private sidings.

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Industrials: Contd.
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 Over 3600 kms of track renewal is  A ‘Safety First’ policy, with allocation of  General
targeted during the current fiscal. Other adequate funds under Rashtriya Rail
major steps include increasing use of Sanraksha Kosh is on way. Maintenance of
technology like ‘‘Fog Safe’’ and ‘‘Train track infrastructure is being given special
Protection and Warning System’’. attention.

 Indian Railway Station Development  NBCC IN has been expecting railway station  NBCC IN
Company is redeveloping 600 major redevelopment orders. Company has
railway stations. All stations with more guided a Rs75-Rs100bn order inflow from
than 25000 footfalls will have escalators. this space.
All railway stations and trains will be
progressively provided with wi-fi. CCTVs
will be provided at all stations and on
trains to enhance security of passengers.

 Mumbai’s transport system, the lifeline of  New project announced. However,  General
the City, is being expanded and immediate impact is difficult to assess
augmented to add 90 kilometers of
double line tracks at a cost of over
Rs110bn. 150 kilometers of additional
suburban network is being planned at a
cost of over Rs400bn, which includes
elevated corridors on some sections. A
suburban network of approximately 160
kilometers at an estimated cost of
Rs170bn is being planned to cater to the
growth of the Bengaluru metropolis.

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Industrials: Contd.
Measure Impact Stocks Impacted
 Regional connectivity scheme of UDAN  In the last three years, the domestic air  GMRI IN, GVKP IN
(Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik) initiated by the passenger traffic grew at 18% per annum
Government last year shall connect 56 and airline companies placed orders for
unserved airports and 31 unserved more than 900 aircrafts. The trend could
helipads across the country. Operations continue.
have already started at 16 such airports.

 The Government would initiate  The Government and market regulators  MIDL IN, IRB IN, ILFT IN
monetizing select CPSE assets using InvITs have taken necessary measures for
from next year. development of monetizing vehicles like
Infrastructure Investment Trust (InvIT) and
Real Investment Trust (ReITs) in India.

Valuation
CMP TP Mkt Cap Revenue (Rs mn) Ebitda (Rs mn) EPS (Rs) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE(%) RoCE(%)
Companies
(Rs) (Rs) Reco (Rs mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY19E FY19E
Larsen & Toubro 1,456 1,486 HOLD 2,039,622 1,215,092 1,362,991 131,771 154,808 51.3 56.7 28.4 25.7 20.7 18.0 13.7 7.3
Siemens 1,317 1,487 BUY 469,010 117,406 129,522 12,210 14,661 26.7 31.0 49.4 42.5 34.9 28.7 13.5 15.9
BHEL 100 100 HOLD 368,241 288,774 344,604 9,868 18,611 2.1 3.4 47.8 29.4 32.9 17.7 3.7 2.6
ABB India 1,702 1,409 HOLD 360,721 99,768 99,768 10,283 10,283 29.8 29.8 57.1 57.1 35.3 35.3 16.3 17.0
Cummins India 905 1,133 BUY 250,921 52,804 58,613 8,736 9,794 28.5 31.5 31.8 28.8 28.4 25.4 20.4 20.1
NBCC 229 314 BUY 206,280 77,676 117,533 6,040 10,539 5.4 9.2 42.4 24.9 31.3 17.3 35.2 43.9
Thermax 1,284 1,178 HOLD 152,949 46,223 51,975 4,255 5,569 22.5 31.0 57.0 41.4 35.9 27.4 13.0 16.2
Engineers India 174 196 ACCUMULATE 109636.63 18395.651 22653.725 4126.839 5525.782 6.1 7.9848 28.443 21.729 19.945 14.04 15.61777 15.2096
Kalpataru Power 460 475 HOLD 70576.53 54920.472 61142.931 6214 7117 20.192 22.449 22.776 20.486 11.789 10.437 11.70675 19.0239
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEGATIVE
Oil and Gas: Return of subsidy sharing mechanism looms large
Measures Impact Stocks Impacted
 Total provision for subsidy payment for  Total subsidy made for FY18 falls short of  Negative for ONGC, Oil India and Neutral
LPG and SKO stood at Rs345 bn and our expectation of ~Rs290 bn as we were for OMCs
Rs249 bn for FY18 and FY19 expecting 100% subsidy to be provided by
respectively. the Government. We expect upstream
like ONGC and OIL may fill the gap.

 Levy of Road & Infra Cess of Rs8/ltr on  No change in effective excise duty on  Neutral for Oil Marketing Companies.
Petrol & Diesel, while abolished petrol and diesel and just change in
additional excise duty of Rs6/ltr and accounts
reduced basic excise duty by Rs2/ltr on
petrol and diesel

Valuation
CMP TP Mkt Cap Revenue (Rs mn) Ebitda (Rs mn) EPS (Rs) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE(%) RoCE(%)
Companies
(Rs) (Rs) Reco (Rs mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY19E FY19E
Reliance Industries 944 1,100 BUY 5,980,052 3,800,281 3,819,119 642,727 731,440 55.1 59.6 17.1 15.8 11.0 9.3 12.2 10.4
Oil & Natural Gas Corp. 195 227 BUY 2,503,765 1,633,276 1,654,766 607,488 631,070 22.5 23.2 8.7 8.4 4.7 4.3 12.1 12.3
Indian Oil Corporation 417 494 BUY 2,022,727 4,162,552 4,086,097 306,327 278,496 34.5 30.0 12.1 13.9 8.5 9.3 13.5 12.1
Bharat Petroleum Corp. 490 574 ACCUMULATE 1,063,259 2,135,683 2,241,505 130,882 139,330 34.1 36.2 14.4 13.5 9.8 8.8 18.1 16.6
Gail India 486 510 BUY 822,227 518,808 542,067 79,720 82,517 28.1 29.6 17.3 16.4 10.7 10.1 12.5 12.2
Hindustan Petroleum 392 414 HOLD 597,948 2,010,920 2,044,374 90,358 89,963 31.2 30.7 12.6 12.8 9.4 9.1 14.9 10.4
Petronet LNG 252 305 BUY 377,475 274,161 293,441 32,606 34,067 13.1 13.8 19.3 18.2 12.1 11.5 23.6 23.2
Oil India 357 355 HOLD 253,931 99,830 102,653 33,829 34,535 28.7 29.4 12.4 12.1 7.2 6.7 8.8 6.1
Gujarat State Petro. 200 204 HOLD 112,621 12,059 12,486 10,368 10,711 10.8 11.4 18.5 17.6 9.9 8.9 12.2 14.5
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT NEUTRAL
Pharmaceuticals: No surprise
Proposed Impact Stocks Impacted

 Entail Rs1200Cr for National Health  Improvement in reach of medical  Positive for healthcare service
Policy, 2017 to set 1.5lakh Health and facilities in the rural India and higher providers as capex will be undertaken
Awareness centres including generic penetration means further to offer such services
maternal/child health services, control pressure on margins though it will result  Marginally negative for drug
non-communicable diseases , free in increased volumes. manufacturers as genericisation will
medicines, diagnostic services. dent the margins

 National Health Protection Scheme to  Improvement in reach of medical  Positive for healthcare service
cover over 10Cr poor and vulnerable facilities in the rural India and poor providers as the patients to have larger
familes (~50Cr beneficieries) providing population medical cover
coverage upto Rs5lakh/family/year for
secondary and tertiary care
hospitalisation

 Increased Jan Aushadi centres and  Increased penetration of the medicines  Positive on pharma generic companies
government plans to allocate Rs600Cr in the rural areas. Jan Aushadi kendras as the penetration continues to
to provide nutritional support for increased from 683 centres to 800 strengthen
tuberculosis patients. centres

 National AYUSH Mission (NAM) with  Increase the availability of cost effective  Positive on pharma generic companies
outlay of Rs504.43Cr. AYUSH services with universal access by as the penetration continues to
co-location. Assure the availability of strengthen
free essential AYUSH drugs in AYUSH
Hospitals and Dispensaries.

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT
Pharmaceuticals: Contd.
Valuation
Mkt Revenue Ebitda
CMP TP EPS (Rs) BVPS (Rs) PER (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE(%) RoCE(%)
Companies Cap (Rs mn) (Rs mn)
(Rs) (Rs) Reco (Rs mn) FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY19E FY19E

Cipla/India 587 587 HOLD 472,894 177,336 201,594 32,401 39,106 22.2 28.3 162 162 26.4 20.8 3.6 3.6 15.9 13.1 17.4 15.4

Cadila Healthcare 425 505 ACCUMULATE 434,886 112,811 124,505 25,482 30,580 17.5 23.0 82 101 24.2 18.5 5.2 4.2 18.5 14.9 25.1 19.8
Lupin 884 867 HOLD 399,461 154,925 169,641 30,227 35,835 36.2 45.6 328 366 24.4 19.4 2.7 2.4 15.4 12.5 13.1 10.2

Torrent Pharma. 1,363 1,433 ACCUMULATE 230,639 62,146 82,678 14,740 21,452 54.4 71.7 296 353 25.0 19.0 4.6 3.9 18.9 12.5 22.1 16.4
Glenmark Pharma 605 710 ACCUMULATE 170,811 91,753 103,621 18,532 19,995 37.3 37.6 194 229 16.2 16.1 3.1 2.6 10.9 9.9 17.8 17.8

Dishman Carbogen 377 412 ACCUMULATE 60,813 17,418 22,351 4,660 6,459 12.5 19.4 94 112 30.1 19.4 4.0 3.4 14.6 10.2 18.8 16.3
Merck India 1,468 1,179 HOLD 24,375 11,312 12,431 1,808 1,777 68.9 68.2 444 497 21.3 21.5 3.3 3.0 11.5 11.2 14.5 18.5
Source: IDBI Capital Research

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT
Key to Ratings
Stocks:
BUY: Absolute return of 15% and above; ACCUMULATE: 5% to 15%; HOLD: Upto ±5%; REDUCE: -5% to -15%; SELL: -15% and below.

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UNION BUDGET 2018-19 - IMPACT
Analyst Disclosures
We, Research Team, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject companies and / or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation were, are or will be directly or indirectly
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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We offer our research services to primarily institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are registered with us. The Research Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company.
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Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at bseindia.com, nseindia.com and economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes.

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