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51

GAMC No. :1703/2018-20. Issued by SSP Ahd. Valid up to 31-12-2020


VOL : 11 • Issue No: 52 RNI No : GUJENG / 2008 / 24320 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019

FII Activity (Rs. in Cr.)


Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
04-02-19 3729.46 3841.59 -112.13
05-02-19 3061.63 2640.98 420.65
06-02-19 4040.48 3345.51 694.97
07-02-19 3330.61 2912.6 418.01
08-02-19 4434.51 3590.78 843.73
TOTAL 18596.69 16331.46 2265.23
DII Activity (Rs. in Cr.)
Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
04-02-19 2644.42 2709.64 -65.22
05-02-19 2947.18 2752.87 194.31
06-02-19 3509.34 2984.08 525.26
07-02-19 3019.57 2725.46 294.11
08-02-19 2865.18 3825.22 -960.04
TOTAL 14985.69 14997.27 -11.58

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Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 5


INVESTMENT
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 6


INVESTMENT

Rapid Fire Stocks

- Kalpna J (Email- Kjtech79@gmail.com)

(Ring : 97690 37711) Twitter : @Kj_TechTrades

Axis Bank (Buy at CMP : 719)


Target - 875to 910, SL- 640
Time Frame 9 to 24 Months,(Add in All Dips)

Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India. The Bank operates in four
segments, namely treasury, retail banking, corporate/ wholesale banking and other banking
business. Axis Bank was incorporated in the year 1993 with the name UTI Bank Ltd. Axis
Bank is one of the first new generation private sector banks to have begun operations in
1994. The bank was promoted in 1993, jointly by Specified Undertaking of Unit Trust of India
(SUUTI) (then known as Unit Trust of India), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), Gen-
eral Insurance Corporation of India (GIC), National Insurance Company Ltd., The New India
Assurance Company Ltd., The Oriental Insurance Company Ltd. and United India Insurance
Company Ltd.

The treasury operations include investments in sovereign and corporate debt, equity and
mutual funds, trading operations, derivative trading and foreign exchange operations on the
account, and for customers and central funding. Retail banking includes lending to individu-
als/small businesses subject to the orientation, product and granularity criterion. It also in-
cludes liability products, card services, Internet banking, automated teller machines (ATM)
services, depository, financial advisory services, and non resident Indian (NRI) services.

Cont...
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 7


INVESTMENT
The corporate/wholesale banking segment includes corporate relationships not included un-
der retail banking, corporate advisory services, placements and syndication, management of
publics issue, project appraisals, capital market related services, and cash management
services. The Banks registered office is located at Ahmedabad and their Central Office is
located at Mumbai. With 3,485 domestic branches (including extension counters) and 14,332
ATMs across the country as on 30 September 2017, the network of Axis Bank spreads
across 2,033 cities and towns, enabling the bank to reach out to a large cross-section of
customers with an array of products and services. The bank also has nine overseas offices
with branches at Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai (at the DIFC), Shanghai and Colombo; repre-
sentative offices at Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Dhaka and an overseas subsidiary at London,
UK.The Bank has five wholly-owned subsidiaries namely Axis Securities and Sales Ltd, Axis
Private Equity Ltd, Axis Trustee Services Ltd, Axis Asset Management Company Ltd and
Axis Mutual Fund Trustee Ltd

Augmentation of equity share capital would enhance the bank’s ability to absorb large
write-downs on distressed asset exposures. Revenue and operating profit should see stron-
ger growth of 19% and 20% CAGR respectively over FY19-20E. It is expected to register
17% loan book CAGR over FY18-20E on account of strong retail segment growth. The bank's
focus on high rated corporate accounts and reduction in watchlist (1.8% of advances) to
strengthen its asset quality. Credit costs to remain elevated in 1HFY19E and normalize in
2HFY19E are likely to decline in FY20E, driving significant improvement in profitability. We
expect recovery in ROA and ROE of 90bps to 1.4% and 970bps to 15.4% respectively over
FY18-20E. The bank’s NII to post 21.7% CAGR over FY18-20E and NIM to stabilize at 3.6%
by FY20E. The stock is currently trading at 1.89x FY20E P/BV.

Axis Bank’s loan mix as of Q1FY19 consisted of corporate, retail segment and SMEs
contributing ~39%, ~48% and ~13% respectively. For Q1FY19, Axis Bank’s loan book stood
at ~Rs4.4 lakh cr; GNPA was at 6.52%; NNPA was at 3.09%; net interest margin was 3.46%
and capital adequacy ratio was at 16.71%.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 8


INVESTMENT

Tech Mahindra (Rs. 805.00)


Targets - 951-1065,
Time Frame - 12 to 24 Months, SL - 765
Tech Mahindra Limited is a spe- Category No. of shares Percentage
cialist in digital transformation, con- Promoters 352,450,608 35.99
sulting and business re-engineer- Foreign Institutions 357,786,396 36.53
ing solutions and is a part of the General Public 91,084,851 9.30
Mahindra Group. Started its life in NBFC and Mutual Funds 72,357,538 7.39
the year of 1986 as Mahindra-Brit- Financial Institutions 67,955,956 6.94
ish Telecom Limited, for over two Others 34,878,904 3.56
decades, Tech Mahindra has been Central Government 2,144,427 0.22
the chosen transformation partner GDR 459,660 0.05
for wireline, wireless and broad- Foreign Promoters 242,904 0.0

band operators in Europe, Asia-Pacific and North America.

As a leading provider of IT Solutions to the Telecom industry, the company committed to quality,
Tech Mahindra adds value to client businesses through well-established methodologies, tools
and techniques backed by its stringent quality processes. It is ISO 9001:2000 certified and is as-
sessed at SEI-CMMI Level 5. Tech Mahindra is a USD 4.1 billion company with 112,800+ profes-
sional across 90 countries, helping over 825 global customers including Fortune 500 companies.

Tech Mahindra’s business process outsourcing (BPO) arm is the ‘Business Services Group’
(BSG), with global presence in 15 countries and handling 300 million+ transactions annually.The
USD 17.8 Billion Mahindra Group is a global federation of companies employing more than 200,000
people in over 100 countries.

The group operates in the key industries that drive economic growth, enjoying a leadership
position in tractors, utility vehicles, after market, information technology and vacation ownership.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 9


INVESTMENT

Long-term investors should avoid the


ongoing open offer for TFCI
Market experts see Tourism Finance Corporation of India (TFCI) as a value stock for long-term
investors and advise them to abstain from the open offer on account of various fundamental strengths
of the company, which is likely to get reinforced once the new management takes charge.
Shareholders of TFCI have been invited to participate in the open offer by three existing mar-
quee shareholders. Redkite Capital Pvt Ltd. along with SSG Capital’s India Opportunities III PTE
and Koppara Sajeeve Thomas. The open offer is at Rs 157.20, plus interest payment of Rs 4.18 to
acquirean additional 26% stake in TFCI. The offer opened on Tuesday, 5th February and will
close on February 18th, 2019. The current stock price is Rs 130.25 (Friday, 8th February closing
on NSE).
TFCI is a financial institution contributing significantly to creation of tourism infrastructure through-
out the country. The company’s strengths primarily lies in their positive Asset Liability Manage-
ment (ALM) and robust capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 40% compared to the threshold of 15%. As
of date the NPA which stands at 2.9% is expected to be brought down to below 1% by FY20.
TFCI’s team of 28 personnel, till date has cumulatively sanctioned a total sum of Rs 10, 887crore
with a majority exposure to the tourism sector. The thorough due diligence by the company has
enabled them to successfully navigate the choppy waters during the NBFC crisis. In the midst of
the turmoil TFCI seems to be a rising star for investors looking for value for their investment. The
stock at its current rate is available at 1.6 times its book value which is a huge discount to the sector
(NBFC) Price to book value. As compared to other NBFC players TFCI doesn’t have any short-
term borrowing, exposure towards loan against share and real-estate market.
The cherry on the cake is the varied financial background and rich experience that the three
entities will be bringing to the company. While SSG Capital has a success record of profitable
investment in stressed assets and structured finance in India, Redkite Capital has been in the
business of investment advisory for over 8 years. Mr. Thomas, the third promoter, an alumnus of
IIM, Ahmedabad is a veteran banker with over 30 years of work experience across India, USA and
Japan.
TCIL’s niche offerings is expected to cushion the stock and market players expect a robust
return in the coming quarters.
According to HDFC Securities, Senior Analyst, Atul Karwa: “The stock of TFCI can be a value
stock for long term players for reasons, which includes; organizational transformation on account
of new promoters resulting into re-rating of the stock, pick up in lending activity, diversification of
asset book and likely asset quality improvement on account of upgradation”.
However, Mr. Karwa is of the opinion that: “The overall negative sentiment surrounding the
NBFC sector may restraint the upward movement for TFCI in the short term”. Currently, HDFC
Securities do not have any recommendation on TFCI.
Commenting on the open offer, Dinkar Shanbaug, head of institutional equities Lotus Global
Equities said, ‘We expect the stock price to witness a rally once the open offer gets over and the
company gets expertise and advice from the new management and focuses towards value added
services. The company has been paying out steady dividends of 20% for the last 8 years”.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 10


INVESTMENT

Smart SME Stocks - Dilip K. Shah

SME stocks worth keeping in mind


A number of companies are gearing up for listing on SME exchanges. Reduction of lot size to
Rs. 25,000 in value or to 200-300 shares in volume can lead to increased retail participation in
these stocks.

Medico Remedies (Rs. 94.00) (Code: 540937) (Market Lot: 1,200 shares)
:- Medico Remedies is a pharma formulations company. It makes formulations for anti-infective,
beta lactums, cephalosporins, anti-malarial, anti-retroviral, vitamins, antacids, and other supple-
ments. It has a strong product range. This future pharma giant should be ignored only at one's own
perils. Investors are advised to invest and just forget. The company had issued shares at Rs. 100 in
last February, and they are trading at a slightly lower price.

Chemcrux Enterprise (Rs. 75.95) (Code: 540395) (Market Lot: 4,000) :-


Chemcrux is an ISO 9001: 2008 and ISO 14001: 2004 certified company. It is a manufacturer of
intermediates for bulk drugs, dyes and pigments. It has the capability for development and execu-
tion of high pressure oxidation, nitration, chloro sulphonation, etc. Its products are exported to US,
Egypt, and Europe. It had issued shares at a fixed price of Rs. 18 in March 2017, while shares were
listed at Rs. 21. The share touched a high of Rs. 82, and is now quoting at Rs. 75.95. It can be
included in the portfolio for attractive returns in the long term.

Vanta Bioscience (Rs. 119.00) (Code: 540729) (Market Lot: 1,500) :- Estab-
lished in 1995, Vanta Biosciences offers pre-clinical safety assessment services and pre-clinical
contract research organization to pharma, nutraceuticals, feed additive, biotech, agrochemicals,
cosmetic and other industries. It also offers risk assessment services for safety of Active Pharma-
ceutical Ingredients. As against the issue price of Rs. 50, the shares were listed on the exchange
at Rs. 51 on October 6, 2017. The shares touched a high of Rs. 124 and are now quoting at 119.15.
The allotted shares have been nearly cornered. The pharma research company seems to have a
bright future.

Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 11


INVESTMENT

SMART
BUY OF THE WEEK
Dark Horse

HITECH CORPORATION LTD


(526217 & NSE) (93.6) (Face Value Rs.10)
The Hitech Group founded by Mr. Ashwin Dani, Non - Executive Vice Chairman, Asian
Paints Ltd. is a diversified Indian conglomerate headquartered in Mumbai. Hitech Corporation
(formerly known as Hitech Plast) is a leading rigid plastic packaging manufacturer delivering
the highest quality of innovative and sustainable products. Its 13 state of the art manufactur-
ing facilities are strategically located in close proximity to key client hubs to ensure timely

delivery & on-going accessibility to over Particular Three Month End.


1200 customers across the Paint & Coat- Q3FY19 Q3FY18 % Var.
ing FMCG, Agrochemical, Lubricant & Sales 126.34 90.96 38.91
Health Care industries. HPL creates ex- PBT 18.04 0.60 2906.66
PAT 11.62 0.38 2981.96
quisite plastic packaging designs &
sought-after products including plastic jars & containers ranging from 5ml to 20 liters.
It has an equity base of Rs.17.18crore that is supported by reserve of Rs.132.82crore. The
Promoters hold 74.43% while the investing public holds 25.57% stake in the company. For
Q3FY19, PAT jumped 2981.96% to Rs.11.62crore from Rs.0.38crore in Q3FY18 on 38.91%
higher sales of Rs.126.34crore fetching an EPS of Rs.6.76. During 9MFY19, PAT zoomed
526.76% to Rs.16.77crore from Rs.2.68crore in 9MFY18 on 20.83% higher sales of
Rs.358.45crore fetching an EPS of Rs.9.76. Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 8x. It
has paid 9% dividend for FY18. Its 52 week high rate is Rs.174.8. Stock almost corrected
46.5% from 52 week high.
Investors can accumulate this stock with a stop loss of Rs.80. It may give very good
returns in medium to long term.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 12


INVESTMENT

TRADNICAL STRATEGY
Email: nimesh@nimeshthaker.com, M. 9228237373
NIMESH THAKER, BARODA
Sebi Registered NO. : INH000005874

Nifty back in range, Mix signal on chart


Last week my view on market was “ bang bang budget ..boom boom market” , and I
recommended to buy nifty near 10820 level with the target of 11050-11150 …….it was achieved-
Another successful week for my readers who did trade accordingly. All of big events are over
and Indian market move back in trading range after two successful closed above 11000 level.
On technical point of view, Evening-Star formation on daily chart indicates trend reversal.
However underlying trend is bullish, so we are getting mix signal from daily chart. On down-
side 10800-10850 would be crucial support for nifty while on upside 11150-11200 would act
as resistance zone.
On option side, Nifty 11000-10900 put option indicates short covering, while 11000 call
option showing fresh short position with highest open interest indicates again nifty could
move in previous range (10700-11000) where 11020 level is strong resistance zone.
With keeping all data in mind I recommend to avoid any fresh buying or selling positions in
market, So let clear trend emerge, after that we will initiate trade . From bulls points of view ,
nifty should sustained above 11000 level to move further.
For your investment related queries you can contact me on M.9228237373
Gujarat Fluro : (Buy Range: 878-860)
Target: 930-950 stop loss 830
Allocation: 10% of trading capital
Strong volume on daily chart from 200 EMA Support indicates bullish signal on the stock.
I expect stock to test 930-950 level in short term hence recommend to buy 10% of your
trading capital between 878-860 zone with stoploss below 830 level on closing basis
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 13


INVESTMENT

Stock Buzz Subramanian Mahadevan


dolphincapital@gmail.com

EPC Industries Limited (Rs.101)


Nice Harvest !
EPC Industries Limited (EPCIN) - is a Nashik (Maharashtra) based company incorporated in
1981 and currently owned by renowned Mahindra group (M&M) - $19 billion multinational group
based in Mumbai with controlling stake of 54.76% after it acquired from erstwhile promoters in
2011 enabling M&M to enter micro-irrigation sector. This has been a related diversification (Farm-
to-Fork model) for M&M in the agriculture space where it has a major presence in machinery and
services through the Farm Equipment Sector. EPCIN provides complete solution for agriculture
with products of international standard and high focus on micro-irrigation, pumps & inter-related
requirements of fertigation & agronomic support and has a strong & widely spread network with
presence in more than 15 states. Its product include Drip Irrigation System, Sprinkler Irrigation
System, Pumps, Pipes and Landscape& Turf Irrigation. Under the leadership of M&M, once debt
saddled EPCIN with multiple challenges of managing growth and liquidity constraints emerged
stronger than before wherein topline almost trebled and bottom-line rose 10X in the last five years
despite poor monsoon and even worst drought in few northern states. Market leader Jain Irrigation
still controls giant share of 55% (Market Size: 2500 crore) in the micro-irrigation space and EPCIN
is poised for phenomenal growth in the years ahead. Q3 2018 results were really good wherein
topline grew by 43.42% to 77.34 crore and PAT grew by 50.24% to 3.93 crore. By 2020 M&M may
merge the entire agri-business into one single large listed vertical viz FineGrade (Pulses), Saboro
(Fruits, Dairy), NuPro (Edible Oil) and other allied service and products within EPC and won't be
surprised if EPCIN becomes 1000 crore company in next four years. Buy on declines for multi-
bagger returns.

Buy... Buy... Buy on Dips Hold Sell on High


TCS 2062.00 Tata Motors DVR 81.00
Karnataka Bank 115.00 MOIL 160.00
Alkem Labs. 1900.00 Orient Cement 66.00
IDFC 39.00 Phoenix Mills 587.0
CESC Ventures 497.00 Sail 45.00
Ansal Housing 11.00 KEI Ind. 360.00
BPCL 337.00 Tata Motors 151.00
Munjal Auto 54.00 Sobha Ltd. 475.00
CYIENT 604.00 M&M 683.00
S.P. Global 57.00 IGL 286.00
Nestle 11278.00 Jet Air. 225.00
ARVIND 81.00 Gail 336.00
HCL Techno 1065.00 Hinduja Global 616.00
B. L. Kashyap 19.60 Mahanagar Gas 924.00
Teamlease 2773.00 Andhra Bank 24.00
Praj Ind. 142.00 INOX Leisure 261.00
Britannia 3109.00 IFB Ind. 732.00
NOCIL 127.00 Adani Port 330.00
HCL Techno 1065.00 Sun TV 520.00
BEL 80.00 CDSL 212.00
Oberoi Realty 446.00 Escorts 660.00
Walchandnagar 79.00 Tata Global 185.00
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 14


INVESTMENT

Sensex-Nifty is at life highs


But Your portfolio is still down by 30-50% ???
You want to reshuffle
your loss making stocks into profitable ones ?
For register whatsApp - Your name,
Mobile number, City on

7744804098
Nifty & Sensex Movement during the last week
NSE - Nifty Open High Low Close Diff
04-Feb-19 10876.75 10927.9 10814.15 10912.25 18.6
05-Feb-19 10908.65 10956.7 10886.7 10934.35 22.1
06-Feb-19 10965.1 11072.6 10962.7 11062.45 128.1
07-Feb-19 11070.45 11118.1 11043.6 11069.4 6.95
08-Feb-19 11023.5 11041.2 10925.45 10943.6 -125.8
Net Weekly Gains 49.95
BSE-Sensex Open High Low Close Diff
04-02-19 36,456.22 36,622.77 36,225.48 36,582.74 113.31
05-02-19 36,573.04 36,727.83 36,495.83 36,616.81 34.07
06-02-19 36,714.54 37,005.25 36,680.88 36,975.23 358.42
07-02-19 37,026.56 37,172.18 36,898.80 36,971.09 -4.14
08-02-19 36,873.59 36,885.58 36,480.62 36,546.48 -424.61
Net Weekly Gains 77.05
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 15


INVESTMENT
Jatin Sanghavi
Market Scan (Mumbai)
(M) 098205 26455
jatinsanghavi100@yahoo.com

TRADING RANGE BROKEN


CONVICTION MISSING
RBI OBLIGES, REPO RATE CUT BY 25BPS :- Just as the Market was digesting the Budget
Bonanza for the Middle class and the farmers, there was another action waiting this week. After
Piyush Goyal, it was now the turn of the new RBI Governor Mr. Shaktikanta Das to surprise the
Market. In its maiden policy review under Mr. Shaktikanta Das, RBI cut Repo Rate by 25bps and
changed its stance to 'neutral' from 'calibrated tightening'. This propelled the Nifty, only for a while,
to go beyond the 61.8% Trend Reversal level of 11089, only to give away the gains later. As a
result, the Nifty managed the trading range breakout by closing above the 10985 after more than
two months of consolidation. Nifty needs to close above 11089, only then it will move towards a
short term pattern target of 11416 and Ascending Triangle pattern target of 11644. These targets
are achievable as long as Nifty remains above 10583, which is the failure point. Support zone is at
10864-10720.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING :- Sensex opened the week at 36456, made a high of 37172, low
of 36225 and closed the week at 36546. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 77 points. At the
same time the Nifty opened the week at 10876, made a high of 11118, low of 10814 and closed the
week at 10943. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 50 points.
On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a Real Black body candle after a gap down
opening. Last three days have formed an Evening Star pattern which is a Bearish Reversal pat-
tern. On the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a small white body candle with a longer
upper shadow which indicates selling pressure at higher levels. Thus more than weekly, daily

This Weeks Recommendations


Rec. Name CMP SL TGT-1 TGT-2
Buy Bajaj Fin. 2707 2655 2785 2865
Buy Kotak Bank 1299 1277 1332 1366
Buy UPL 812 795 838 865
Buy Tech Mah 805 789 829 854
Buy Havells 743 728 766 790
:::: INDEX LEVELS ::::
S3 S2 S1 CLOSE R1 R2 R3
NIFTY 10628 10722 10819 10943 11041 11145 11250
SENSEX 35375 35730 36095 36546 36898 37342 37711
Cont...
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 16


INVESTMENT

candlestick study indicates bearishness.


Trading Range breakout occurred in the 9th week of consolidation between Sensex 36554-
35010 and Nifty 10985-10534. It was a Bullish breakout and as expected the indices went to test
the 61.8% Reversal level of Sensex 36813 and 11089 for the Nifty. Only if Nifty sustains above
11089, it will achieve its short term pattern target of 11416 and Ascending Triangle target of 11644.
Failure point for pattern is 10583.
Interestingly all the significant Moving Averages (20dma, 50dma, 100dma & 200dma) have con-
verged into a narrow Confluence Zone between Sensex 36293-35666 and Nifty 10864-10720.
This Zone will act as Strong Support Zone going forward.
The Correction of the current upward Retracement is at Sensex 35300-34922-35538 and Nifty
10610-10494-10379. A break below Nifty 10379, will see the intermediate Correction resuming
and the intermediate Correction levels are placed at Sensex 33920-32354-30788 and Nifty 10283-
9827-9371. Higher degree Correction levels are placed at Sensex 32688-30742-28796 and Nifty
9875-9293-8710. Thus we have two confluence zones which will act as Support Zones. First
Confluence Support Zone is between Sensex 32688-32354 and Nifty 9875-9827. Second
Confluence Support Zone falls between Sensex 30788-30724 and Nifty 9371-9293.
This week, both the indices remained above all the Moving Averages viz. the long term average
of 200dma (Sensex - 35973 and Nifty - 10855), the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex -
36060 and Nifty - 10817) and also the short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 36293 and Nifty -
10864). Thus the Trend in long term, medium term and short term is still Bullish.
MACD and Price ROC are in Buy mode. RSI (55) suggests Bullish momentum. Stochastic Os-
cillator %K (85) has just gone below %D and hence in Sell mode. ADX (14) suggests a further
sideways consolidation with no clear trend. Directional Indicators are in Buy mode as +DI has
gone above -DI. MFI (51) suggests Positive Money Flow. OBV continues to make higher top higher
bottom. Bollinger Band is in Buy mode. Thus majority of Oscillators are suggesting a Bullish bias.
Options data for February series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at the strike of 11000
whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 10400. Thus Options data suggests a narrow
trading range with resistance at 11000 & support at 10400.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 17


INVESTMENT
- Parag Salot
Technical Trading Trends (SEBI Registered Research Analyst)
M. : 91-9930011789

Nifty Overview : In Last Trading Session, Nifty closed at 10945. Last week we suggested to buy Nifty
in dip ard 10800 levels and we got chance to enter around 10830 levels and Nifty then made high of 11142.
Now Nifty will be positive above 11100 levels until then it would be in a range. If Nifty goes down below to
10800 levels then would be more negative and can go down till 10650 levels.
Bank Nifty Overview : In Last Trading Session, Bank Nifty closed at 27305. Last week we had sug-
gested that if it goes above 27300 then will be positive and it indeed touched 27646 levels. Now Bank Nifty
would be positive above 27450 levels. If Bank Nifty goes below 27150 levels then will be more negative.

Last Recommendation Review


Scrip Name BSE Buy/ Enter Did High/ Remark
Code Sell at Low
Dish Tv 532839 Buy 22 31 Target Achieved
ICICI Pru 540133 Buy 280 317 Target Achieved
Tata Motors 500570 Buy 179 186 Did High
Infy 500209 Sell 774 764 Did Low

Trading Buy
Scrip Name BSE Last Enter at 1st 2nd Stop
Code Close Between Tgt. Tgt. Loss
DHFL 511072 108 103/105 110 115 99
HDFC Bank 500180 2121 2110/2115 2130 2150 2095
Idea 532822 29.85 32 34 36 29.85
Tata Motors 500570 183 176/180 188 198 168

Trading Sell
Scrip Name BSE Last Enter at 1st 2nd Stop
Code Close Between Tgt. Tgt. Loss
Divis Labs 532488 1689 1720/1725 1705 1690 1735
Havells 517354 745 775/780 755 735 792
Infy 500209 763 780/785 765 745 794
Tech Mah 532755 809 828/835 818 805 842
Wipro 507685 373 384/388 373 360 396

Note : All calls are momentum calls based on technical analysis and all levels as per future prices (If scrip not available in futures then BSE Cash price). All
these calls are given based on daily charts but intra-day signals are equally important to enter the trade in a timely manner. Timing is very important and we at
shareinfoline.com give you timely calls based on intra-day charts. Read Disclaimer at ShareInfoline.com
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 18


INVESTMENT

Smart Education - Yog Joshi


Technical Analysis
From
Basic to Advance

Topic - 8 (4) - Type of Candlestick Pattern


- Bullish Harami and Bearish Harami
(Double Candlestick Pattern)
Dear Friends,
Hope you all are doing well...!!!
In last week issue of Smart Investment, we discussed about candlestick pattern Engulfing Bull-
ish and Engulfing Bearish, this two pattern are related to bullish momentum and bearish momen-
tum in near future
Today we are going to discuss about pattern like Bullish Harami and Bearish Harami
(1) Bullish Harami : This pattern also known for expected bullish reversal in near future..mainly
if it form at bottom of down trend and supported by bullish candle as a confirmation candle
In this type of pattern, a small bullish candlestick form very next ro bearish candle at down trend
supported by healthy bullish candle which close above the open of previous bearish candle
So this pattern is known as a Bullish Harami candlestick pattern and it indicate that down trend
is about to end, and now sentiment may going to change from Bearish to Bullish
In other word we discuss this pattern on the basis of trading psychology, where all were thinking

of the bearish atmosphere in the


market and next to next bearish
candle was formed in candle
stick chart, all of sudden some
buyer are entered in the market
and make session close in posi-
tive manner in spite of heavy sell-
ing pressure in last few session,
this is the turning point of the
market and it indicate bearish
sentiment will going to change in
bullish sentiment in near future
and if it supported by healthy bull-
ish candle so its confirmed that
now buyers will going to take con-
trol over the coming session.

Cont....
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 19


INVESTMENT

(2) Bearish Harami : This pattern also


known for expected bearish reversal in
near future..mainly if it form at top of the
Up Trend and supported by bearish
candle as a confirmation candle
In this type of pattern, a small bearish
candlestick form very next ro bullish
candle at up trend supported by healthy
bearish candle which close below the
open of previous bullish candle
So this pattern is known as a Bearish
Harami candlestick pattern and it indicate
that up trend is about to end, and now
sentiment may going to change from
Bullish to Bearish

In other word we discuss this pattern on the basis of trading psychology, where all were
thinking of the bullish atmosphere in market and next to next bullish candle was formed in
candle stick chart, all of sudden some seller are entered in the market and make session close
in negative manner in spite of heavy buying reported in last few session, this is the turning
point of the market where bullish sentiment will going to change in bearish sentiment in near
future and if it supported by healthy bearish candle so its confirmed that now sellers will going
to take control over the coming session.
Hope you find this article inertsting, next time we will discuss some another inertsting topic
related to candlestick pattern.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 20


INVESTMENT

TECHNICAL TALK Dhananjay Kadam


TECHNICAL ANALYST, M. 7588622374

STOCKS TO SHORT FOR GOOD GAIN


NIFTY:- Two weeks ago in 'Smart Invest-
ment' we have given that NIFTY will cross
11,000 in FEB SERIES and according to that
NIFTY cross 11,000 on wednesday 06/02/
2019 and gave high of 11,118. But after that
upward rally didnt sustained,Now on Daily
Chart NIFTY have a small support of 10800
and if in this week NIFTY sustain above
10800 then again we see upward move to-
ward 11,200 Otherwise it will come down to
10,600

MRF :- This stock made a lifetime high of


81425.95 on 3/8/18. From that date downfall has
started in this counter. On 12/10/2018 it registered
a low of 59601 and since then it's in consolidation
mode, after good consolidation of 16 week today
on weekly chart stock has given breakout with
heavy volume. Currently RSI is in Oversold Zone
so stock can show some upward movement for
2-3 Days but after that again we can see stock
can give downtrend. 56500 to 59500 we can short
this stock in this range with Stop loss of 61,000
on weekly closing basis, Target will be 46700 and
Time Frame will be 3 months
EXIDE IND :- From 11/1/2018 this stock has
started its downfall,Now on Date 29/1/19 stock
made a low of 215.50 and after that made a con-
solidation of 7days and today Date 8/02/2019 it
gave a breakout with heavy selling volume. It made
a Bearish Down Flag Pattern and Today it's closed
on 211.25, In coming 14 days according to chart
You can short this stock for a target of 180 and
you can maintain Stop loss of 220 on Daily Clos-
ing Basis
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 21


INVESTMENT

Techno Funda sound stocks Sachin Shah


(Mumbai)

Our Past Review


Stocks Rate High Price Appreciation
5th Nov 18 TECH MAHINDRA 691 818 18%
DIVIS LAB 1499 1700 13%
19th Nov 18 RELIANCE IND 1127 1321 17%
26th Nov 18 AARTI IND 1469 1808 23%
3rd Dec 18 ASIAN PAINTS 1345 1480 10%
10th Dec 18 BATA INDIA 1059 1216 15%
24th Dec 18 NESTLE 11011 11751 7%
31st Dec-18 TITAN COMPANY 922.5 1077 17%
21st Jan-19 AXIS BANK 664 734.5 11%
RBL BANK 570.25 607 6%
4th Feb-19 BAJAJ FINANCE 2627 2737 4%
DR REDDYS 2786 2878 3%

TCS LTD
(532540 & NSE) (2062.75) (FV 1)
Tata Consultancy Services is an lT ser-
vices, consulting and business solutions
organization that has been partnering with
many of the world's largest businesses in
their transformation journeys for the last fifty
years. A part of the Tata group, lndia's larg-
est multinational business group, TCS has
over 417000 of the world's best-trained con-
sultants in 45 countries. For Q3FY19 the
company posted strong numbers with in-
come rising to Rs.37338crores from
Rs.30904crores and net profit rising to Rs.8105crores from Rs.6531crores in corresponding pe-
riod of the last year. Growth exceeded 20.8% in top line and 24% in bottom line. Company has
reported 12.1% constant currency revenue growth which is highest in 14 quarters. During Q3FY19,
its digital revenue growth zoomed 52.7%.
The stock made an all-time high of 2275 in October 2018 and from there it corrected to 1784
before gradually rising to current market price over 4 months. The MACD indicates BUY on
Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts, Super trend Indicates BUY on Daily and Monthly Chart, Para-
bolic SAR indicates buy on Daily and Weekly Chart. Stock is trading above 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and
200 Day Exponential Moving Averages. The stock can be bought at every decline with a target
of 2350 in next 9 to 12months.
Cont...
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 22


INVESTMENT

INFOSYS LTD
(500209 & NSE) (760) (FV 5)
Infosys is a global leader in next-gen-
eration digital services and consulting.
Company enables clients in 45 coun-
tries to navigate their digital transforma-
tion. INFOSYS has over 225501 of con-
sultants in its team.
For Q3FY19 the company posted net
consolidated income of Rs21400crore
and net profit rising to Rs.3609crores.
The quarterly EPS stand at Rs.8.30.
Company has reported 10.1% constant
currency revenue growth on YoY basis
and 2.7% on QoQ basis. During Q3FY19, its digital revenue growth zoomed 33.1%. Company
has announces buyback under open market route of Rs.8260crore at a Maximum price of Rs.800
per share. After making it previous 52 week high of 750 in October 2018 and the stock corrected
to 599 in November 2018.The Stock took support of its 15 Month Exponential Moving Average
and rebounded sharply to form a new 52 week high of 769. Stock is trading above its 5,10,20,30,
50 and 200 EMA on Daily, Weekly and Monthly Chart. The ADX, MACD and PSAR indicate buy
on Daily, Weekly and Monthly Chart. The stock can be bought at every decline with a target of
850 with a time frame of 12 to 15 months.

LARSEN & TOUBRO INFOTECH LTD


(540005 & NSE) (1838) (FV 1)
LTI is a global technology consulting and
digital solutions company serving more than
300 clients in over 30 countries globally. The
company's Mosaic platform provides solutions
for analytics, IoT and Cloud computing. LTI has
over 26000 of employs in its team. For Q3FY19
the company posted strong numbers with in-
come rising to Rs.2472.90crores from
Rs.1883.80crores and net profit rising to
Rs.375.50crores from Rs.282.80crores in cor-
responding period of the last year. Growth ex-
ceeded 32% in both top line and bottom line comparing same quarter of previous year. Company
has reported 20.6% constant currency revenue growth on YoY basis and 6.1% on QoQ basis.
The stock made an all-time high of Rs 1987 in September 2018 and then it corrected to 1436 in
December 2018 where it took support of weekly Super trend and has risen to 1849 steadily. On
Daily and Weekly charts the ADX, MACD, Parabolic SAR and Super trend Indicate BUY. On daily
charts the stock is trading above 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and Day Exponential Moving Averages. Stock
can be bought at every decline with a target price of 2200 in next 12-15 months.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 23


INVESTMENT

Terrific Shots - Dilip K. Shah

Adani Ports (Rs. 330.000 (Code: 532921) :- Shares of the country's largest private
ports company are listed in A Group. The shares touched a 52-week high of Rs. 423 and low of Rs.
293. For the December quarter, the Adani Group company reported 42% rise in net profit at Rs.
1,419 crores. It had reported profit of Rs. 1,001 crores in the same period last year. Its income went
up from Rs. 2,925 crores last year to Rs. 3,169 crores this year. APSEZ reported double-digit
growth in cargo traffic across commodities such as coal, container, and other bulk categories in the
first nine months of the financial year. The company may achieve cargo traffic of 20 crore tonnes
this year. Its flagship Mundra port recorded 6% traffic growth, while Hazria and Dahej showed 15
and 20% growth respectively. The stock looks poised to touch Rs. 400 in the short to medium term.
Garware Technical Fibres (Rs. 1,036.00) (Code: 509557) :- Established in
1976, Garware Technical Fibres is a pioneer in synthetic cartridge industry in India. It is consid-
ered the largest producer of polymer cartridge in the world. It has clients in 75 countries. Its shares
are listed in the B Group. The shares touched a 52-week high of Rs. 1,358 and low of Rs. 880. its
market capis Rs. 2,456 crores. Its equity is Rs. 21.88 crores, whereas it has reserves are at Rs. 515
crores. For the first six months of the year, its income went up from Rs. 448 crores to Rs. 506 crores,
while profit rose from Rs. 54.14 crores to Rs. 64.30 crores. EPS for the first half was Rs. 29.38.
Promoter holding is 50.7%, while FIIs and MFs hold 4.83% and 1.82% respectively. The stock is a
good investment bet. It will announce December quarter results on February 13.
HIL (Rs. 1,797.00) (Code: 509675) :- This cement sector company's shares are listed
in B Group, and have face value of Rs. 10. The shares touched of high of Rs. 2,600 and low of Rs.
1,485 in the last 52 weeks. A part of the CK Birla Group, the company was earlier known as
Hyderabad Industries. The company provides building solutions. Its products include roofing solu-
tions, panels, wall blocks, plywood substitutes, pipe fittings, etc. It employs over 20,000 people in
41 plants across different continents. For FY 2017-18, it reported income of Rs. 1,325 crores and
net profit of Rs. 80.75 crores. For September quarter, income was Rs. 307 crores and profit Rs.
26.85 crores. Operating profit margin was 17.24%, and net profit margin 8.74%. The stock can
deliver 30 to 40% returns in the short to medium term.
CDSL (Rs. 212.00) (NSE) :- The shares are listed on NSE. The shares touched a 52-
week high of Rs. 333 and low of Rs. 204. Promoter BSE holds 24% stake in the company, and the
remaining 76% is with the public. HDFC Bank and other banks are among the large shareholders.
CDSL is one of the two depository services providers in the country. The company had issued
shares at Rs. 149 apiece at the time of its IPO in June 2017. The shares had had a good listing, and
had risen sharply. However, the shares had corrected from the highs, and have stabilised around
current levels for a long time. For December quarter, its income declined from Rs. 51.11 crores to
Rs. 46.17 crores, while profit went up from Rs. 25.40 crores to Rs. 28.46 crores. For the first nine
months, income rose from Rs. 139 crores to Rs. 144.6 crores, and profit from Rs. 77.71 crores to
Rs. 80.64 crores. The stock is quoting at a PE multiple of 21. The stock has been in consolidation
mode for long, and looks attractive at current levels.

Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014 ; • I and / or
my clients may have investment in this stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the
company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short / Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not
be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or may not be
substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 24


INVESTMENT
Sarvesh Ashok Trivedi
Stock Wave (Mumbai) (Mob) 09820728124
www.chartsanketstock.com

Important Support for Index at 36455 and


Nifty Future at 10920
BSE Index (36546.48) :- It is moving upward from bottom of 35375.51. It shows overbought
position on daily and weekly basis, while neutral position on monthly basis. On upward movement,
beyond 36885 it may witness resisting level at 37172. On the downward movement, below 36455
it may go down to 36316 indicating weak position.
Nifty Future (10944.00) :- It shows improvement from bottom of 10597.70. It shows overbought
position on daily and weekly basis, while overbought position on monthly basis. On upward move-
ment, beyond 10972 it may go up to 11010, 11040, 11075, 11100, 11143, 11190 and 11250. On
the downward movement, below 10935 it may go down to 10920 with last support at 10865.
Bank Nifty Future (27309.95) :- It is moving upward from bottom of 26520. It shows overbought
positon on daily basis, overbought to neutral on weekly basis and overbought on monthly basis.
On upward movement, beyond 27535 it may go up to 27600, with important resisting levels at
27647, 27675 and 27785. On the downward movement, below 27267 it may go down to 27240
and 27000 indicating weak position.
CIPLA (534.25) :- It is witnessing rebounding spurt from top of 483.75. It shows overbought to
neutral position on daily basis, neutral on weekly basis and oversold on monthly basis. On upward
movement, beyond 547 it may go up to 558 and 566. On the downward movement, it may get
support at 520.
Cummins India (751.30) :- It shows downward movement from 884.20. It shows towards over-
sold position on daily and weekly basis, while overbought position on monthly basis. On upward
movement, beyond 778 it may witness resisting level at 794. On the downward movement, below
748 it may go down to 733 and 718.
L&T Finance (128.85) :- It shows upward movement from bottom of 124.45. It shows neutral
position on daily basis, oversold on weekly basis and neutral position on monthly basis. On up-
ward movement, beyond 139 it may go up to 142 and 148. On the downward movement, it may get
support at 124.
Sun Pharma (431.05) :- It shows rebounding spurt from bottom of 370.20. It shows neutral posi-
tion on daily and weekly basis, while oversold position on monthly basis. On upward movement,
beyond 447 it may witness resisting level at 458 and beyond that it may go up to 466, 475 and 485.
It may get support at 423.
Reliance Capital (129.25) :- It shows downward movement from top of 475.50. It shows over-
sold position on daily, weekly and monthly basis. It is advised to sell around 300. It may go down to
120 and if it goes below 100 or 90 level then panic can be witnessed. Don't indulge in new buying
at that level. On upward movement, beyond 145 it may go up to 157 and 165.
Disclosure : The Recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.

Golden quote :-
Life is the art of drawing without an eraser
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 25


INVESTMENT

Dilip Davda
e-mail Expert’s Eye
dilip_davda@rediffmail.com

A flat but positive week


amidst all odds
The week under report that began on a negative note marked hat trick of gains for first three
sessions for BSE and four sessions for NSE. Last days mega losses fell short against gains of first
three sessions and thus we marked a flat but positive week where in RBI announced repo rate/
reverse repo rate cut of 25 bps. However, weak global cues and lingering issues of US-China
trade war coupled with Brexit issue were at center stage. At home front NBFCs were hammered
down under the leadership of DHFL and Indiablls group counters following heavy debt issues. R-
ADAG group counters and Tata Motors added fuel to the fire of hammering. During the week while
Nifty crossed 11K twice for closing, Sensex failed to close above 37K despite crossing it twice
during intraday trades.
As can be seen from the table below, during the week, indices moved in the range of 11118.10
-10814.15 and 37172.18-36225.48 for NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex respectively.
For the week, we witnessed net weekly GAINs of 49.95 points for NSE Nifty and 77.05 points
for BSE Sensex.
As budget failed to cheer the market, after poor opening, our markets ended volatile trading
session on Monday with modest gains, supported by firmness in index heavy weights like Reli-
ance Industries, TCS and HDFC. BSE Sensex rose 113.31 points to
Board Meet
close at 36,582.74. Nifty rose 18.60 points to end the day 10,912.25.
Inflame (9-2-2019)
Index based trades kept market in green zone despite heavy selloff in
Bonus Announcement Mid and Small cap counters. Pharma, Metal counters lead the slide and
Sukhjit Starch (1 for 1) kept check on surge.
On Tuesday too similar pattern was witnessed. Markets opened on a
Ex-Bonus poor note but ended in green with lackluster trades. BSE Sensex rose
Concor (1 for 4)
White Organics (1 for 1)
34.07 points to end the day at 36,616.81. Nifty rose 22.10 points to close
at 10,934.35. Sliding fiscal deficit kept a check on general sentiment, but
Dividend Announcement R-ADAG counter took the lead for doom. Bulls
Aarti Ind (80%), Auto Corp Goa (50%), Balarampur Chini turned cautions ahead of RBI monetary policy
(250%), Greaves Cotton (200%), MOIL (30%), SRF Ltd (60%), meet. While pharma counters met with sell-
Hi-tech Gears (15%), TI Financial (60%), ACC (140%), BHEL
(40%), CESC (175%), GAIL (62.50%), HPCL (65%), Marico
ing spree, informed buying was seen on auto
(275%), Singer India (20%), Suven Life (150%), Symphony counters.
(50%), Tube Inv (175%), Alicon Cast (40%), Centum Elect Our markets gained on Wednesday led by
(10%), Control Print (30%), Cummins India (350%), Manappuram gains in index heavy weights like Reliance
Fin (27.5%), Minda Ind (22.5%), Sukhjit Starch (75%), Wheels
India (32.5%), Gillette India (190%), IRCON (107.2%), MRF
Industries, ICICI Bank and Infosys. Sensex
(30%),Procter & Gamble Hyg (400%), Rane Holding (80%), ended below the psychologically barrier of
Alkem Lab (400%), Aurobindo Pharma (125%), Balkrishna Ind 37,000 mark after crossing that level in late
(100%), BPCL (110%), Engineers India (65%), HIL Ltd (125%), trade. Nifty settled above the psychologically
Hinduja Global (25%), Minda Corp (12.5%), NHPC (7.1%), SJVN
(15%), Sun TV (50%), VIP Ind (60%) etc. level of 11,000 mark after crossing that level
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 26


INVESTMENT
in early trade. BSE Sensex rose 358.42 points to close at 36,975.23. Nifty rose 128.10 points to
end the day at 11,062.45.Index based counter buying lifted the indices, but R-ADAG group counter
slide continued for the third day. This group is under heavy debt burden and may face crisis going
forward, opined seasoned operators.
A divergent trend was seen as the barometer index, BSE Sensex settled a tad lower while Nifty
registered minor gains on Thursday. Sensex ended a tad below 37,000 mark after opening above
that level. BSE Sensex fell 4.14 points to end the day at 36,971.09. Nifty rose 6.95 points to close
at 11,069.40. RBI announcing repo/reverse repo rate cut by 25 bps on expected lines failed to
charm the investors. R-ADAG group counter faced heavy offloading amidst rumors of pledged
share selloff. Pharma counter met with value buying and surged. Auto counters continued to wit-
ness informed buying.
Our markets ended with steep losses amid broad based selling pressure on Friday. Negative
leads from Asian markets and overnight slide on the Dow Jones played a spoil sports. Sensex fell
424.61 points to close at 36,546.48. Nifty fell 125.80 points to end tahe day at 10,943.60. Slide in
NBFC counters like DHFL, IIFL Indiaabulls continued and got support from fancy counters like
Tata Motors that witnessed hammering post poor Q3 numbers. Maraket turned stock specific fol-
lowing quarterly results. FIIs were net buyers while DIIs were net sellers. Mid and Small cap counters
too met with profit booking at every rise.
While Dollar moved on a firm note around Rs. 71.25 for the week, Crude Oil also remained firm
around 61.6 $ a barrel during the week. Q3 number season will be in its final lap and will keep
market in stock specific mode for a while. Impact of CPI, WPI and IIP will be mirrored in the trading
for the week. Global cues as usual will keep a tab on general sentiment. Ensuing week has over
2300 corporate results, thus market will turn highly volatile.
Amidst such a scenario NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex may hover between 11500-10600 and
37600-35500 respectively for the ensuing week.
DISCLAIMER : No financial information whatsoever published anywhere here should be construed as an offer to
buy or sell securities, or as advice to do so in any way whatsoever. All matter published here is purely for educational
and information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for making investment decisions. Readers
must consult a qualified financial advisor prior to making any actual investment decisions, based on information
published here. Any reader taking decisions based on any information published here does so entirely at own risk.
Above information is based on the details available as on the date along with market perceptions. Investors should
bear in mind that any investments in stock markets are subject to unpredictable market related risks. (THE AUTHOUR
IS SEBI REGISTERED RESEARCH ANALYST)

Financial Weekly
Every Sunday Every Wednesday

English & Gujarati Edition Gujarati Edition


Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 27


INVESTMENT
A. K. Asnani
(M) 9893512098
Smart Verc (Bhopal)
Author of Book
Way to Billionaire

I see Pearl and you ?


Last week I received a phone call from an investor. He said to be in a perilous situation.
His capital got eroded as much as 55% during last one year and he has lost confidence and
wants to exit from the market permanently.
I was wondering!I eagerly wait for such golden moments to come and some investors want
to exit.
Investors must appreciate that stock investment is a Science and Art. To derive maximum
advantage, investor needs to invest in a Value stock and derive maximum advantage from
occasional significant dips in market.
Average business cycle lasts for about 5 years. And same holds true for stock markets.
Historically it has been observed that on an average market dips ~ 40% to 50% once in every
cycle of 5 years.Such situations occur pretty fast and investors across the board are unable
to control their emotions under such conditions.
Such disasters in stock market prove very perilous for most investors. Menace can be
gauged from the fact that hardly 20% investors are able to survive to see the next boom.
Investors should see such significant declines not as threats but as opportunities!
Opportunity to bring down the average acquisition cost of Value shares. Even a small
percentage reduction in buying price compounds to many many times in the end.
Thus I perceivesuch opportunities as Pearls instead of Perilseen by majority of investors.
Average investor gets at the most about 8 pearls but Warren Buffett got 17 pearls, more
than double.How and Why?
Assuming that investor starts investing at the age of 25 and invests till 65, thus every
investor gets 8 pearls / perils in his investment carrier of about 40 years.
Warren Buffett born in 1930 and started investments at age 11 got 16 pearls as he is
investing since last 78 years.
S&P BSE Sensitive Index has gained about @15% per annum in the long term. Thus an
investment of Rs 1 Lac should turn to Rs 268 Lac in 40 years without doing anything.
In every crash like situation stocks fall by at least 50% from recent highs and this easily
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 28


INVESTMENT
comes to notice. Assuming that investor breaks his silence at such high declines only once
in five years and brings down average acquisition cost by say 20%
Now consider different investment horizonswith:-
Investment of Rs 1 Lac
1crash = 1 Pearl = 1 Peril
Case 1:
No Crash, Pearls = 0, Peril = 0
Final amount = Rs 268 Lac (assuming he simply invests in Sensex and holds for 40 years
@15% per annum)
Case 2 :-
8 Crash, 8 Perils, Final Amount = Rs 58 Lac, returns @10.68% (assuming that investor
loses 20% in every crash)
8 Pearls, Final amount = Rs 966 Lac, (assuming that investor gains 20% in every crash)
Message is loud and clear. Make use of each and every crash (read pearl) to the maxi-
mum extent possible. No need to fear. It has never happened that under-valued growing
stocks fell and never recovered.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 29


INVESTMENT

Scrip Watch - Dilip K. Shah

Nestle India (Rs. 11278.00) (Code : 500790) (F. V. : 10.00) : Nestle India stock
hit a record high of Rs 11,777 on last Thursday in anticipation of strong earnings growth for the
year ended December 2018 riding on the back of market share gains. The third largest consumer
staples company by market capitalisation will announce its December quarter results on February
14. Nestle is winning back market share in its core categories on the back of increasing focus on
distribution, product launches and strong media campaigns and is the most preferred stock in the
sector. Nestle has superior return ratios and deserves a premium for its diversified product portfolio
and access to brands and technology from the parent firm. Buy.
Grasim (Rs. 718.00) (Code : 500300) (F. V. : 2.00) : Aditya Birla Group firm
Grasim Industries on Thursday reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,144.44 crore for the third
quarter ended December 2018. It had posted a net profit of Rs 786.87 crore during the October-
December period a year-ago.Total income during the quarter stood at Rs 18,591.13 crore. It was
Rs 15,343.93 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. However, the results are not
comparable with the previous corresponding periods" due to merger of Binani Cement in the
company.Its revenue from cement business during the quarter was Rs 9,389.62 crore. It was Rs
7,900.38 crore in the corresponding quarter a year ago. While viscose staple fibre (VSF) was at Rs
2,616.66 crore. It was Rs 2,187.54 crore. Revenue from its chemicals, caustic soda and allied
chemicals, was at Rs 1,558.54 crore. Financial services contributed Rs 3,741.10 crore. The stock
is worth accumulation.
Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152

BUY.... BUY....BUY TIPS OF THE WEEK


Co. Name Code Price Co. Name Code Price
Sukhjit Starch 524542 500.00 Havells India 517354 741.00
Inflame App. 541083 164.00 UPL 512070 812.00
Garware Tech. 509557 1036.00 Tech Mah. 532755 803.00
Federal Bank 500469 84.00 Siemens 500550 1030.00
Rel. Power 532939 11.00 Kotak Mah. 500247 1295.00
Manpasand B. 539207 85.00 Pidilite 500331 1150.00
INOX Wind 539083 65.00 Godrej Prop. 533150 759.00
DB Realty 533160 22.00 SRF 503806 2220.00
Manappurm Fin. 531213 104.00 Bajaj Fin. 500034 2707.00
Rel. Infra 500390 118.00 Marico 531642 364.00
Dish TV 532839 29.00 HDFC Bank 500180 2123.00
Rel. Cap. 500111 129.00 UPL 512070 812.00
DLF 532868 164.00 Ambuja Cement 500425 213.00
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 30


INVESTMENT

Market Tips - Dilip K. Shah

Karnataka Bank (Rs. 115.00) (Code : 532652) (F. V. : 10.00) : Karnataka Bank
has network of 829 branches and 1,544 ATMs including 280 recyclers in 551 centers is spread
across Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi. Its Business expanded
15% to Rs 117102 crore end December 2018 over a year ago, driven by a strong 17% growth in
advances to Rs 51961 crore. The margins increased to around 3% level over the last couple of
year from 2.5% earlier. The current-account-savings-account (Casa) deposits ratio has been main-
tained at 26-28% since the last few quarters compared with below 25% end December 2016. The
aim is to bump up the Casa ratio to 29-30% in the next two to three years. The capital adequacy
ratio of 11.98% and Tier I capital of 10.41% are well above the minimum regulatory requirement.
The asset quality has been stable, with the net non-performing asset (NPA) ratio at 3%, while the
gross NPA ratio declined to 4.45% end December 2018 from a peak of 4.92% end March 2018. Net
profit jumped 32% to Rs 415.51 crore in the nine months end December 2018 over a year ago. Net
interest income moved up 8% to Rs 1424.24 crore, while non-interest income rose 8% to Rs 711.37
crore.The BV stood at Rs 191.4 per share end December 2018. Buy.
Cyient Ltd. (Rs. 604.00) (Code : 532175) (F. V. : 5.00) : Engineering and
software services company Cyient’s board has considered and approved buyback of shares of
Rsv5 at a price not exceeding Rs 700. It has pegged the cost of the buyback of about 28.75 lakh
shares, which forms about 2.54% of its paid-up equity shares, at an aggregate amount not exceed-
ing Rs. 200 crore. Meanwhile, Cyient Ltd has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the 26%
stake it did not already own in Cyient DLM Pvt. Ltd (formerly Rangsons Electronics Pvt. Ltd), its
electronics system design and manufacturing unit. Cyient will pay Rs 42.5 crore for this buyout. By
acquiring the balance 26% stake, Cyient and its nominees will get 100% ownership in Cyient
DLM. The acquisition is part of Cyient's S3 (services, systems and solutions) strategy to expand
into high-technology and high-value, design-led systems and solutions.The stock has been in con-
solidation mode for quite sometime. Now, buy back will lift the stock. Buy.
HCL Technologies (Rs. 1065.00) (Code : 532281) (F. V. : 2.00) : HCL
Technologies Ltd has reported a nearly 26% jump in third-quarter profit, boosted by strong perfor-
mances in its software services business.Net profit for the three months ended 31 December 2018,
stood at Rs. 2,605 crore ($366.49 million), compared with a profit of Rs. 2,075 crore in the year-ago
period. The company maintained its forecast for full-year revenue growth in a range of 9.5%- 11.5%
in constant currency terms.HCL Tech’s dollar revenue improved sequentially to $2.2 billion in the
quarter, while revenue grew 10.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). In constant currency terms, the company’s
revenue rose 5.6% on a sequential basis. Operating margin fell marginally by 30 basis points from
19.9% to 19.6%. HCL Tech’s growth continues to be driven by higher business from its infrastruc-
ture management services unit, besides revenue from its acquisition strategy.HCL Tech expects
its full-year revenue for 2018-19 to grow at the upper-end of its guidance of 9.5-11.5%. Invest.

Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 31


INVESTMENT

SMART TIPS Smita N. Zaveri

Manappuram Finance (Rs.104.00) (Code:531213) :- The NBFC is listed in A


group with face value of Rs2 a share. It is active in Gold Loan, Housing Finance, Micro Finance,
Commercial Vehicles Loans, etc. The company's gold loan asset quality is very good and it ex-
pects to register 10% growth. In the third quarter, the company has cut down the expenses and
registered strong growth in net profit. In December 2018 quarter, the company's consolidated net
profit increased by 24% at Rs244.11 crore, while income also witnessed consolidated 24% growth
at 1081.20 crore. The company has declared interim dividend of Rs0.55 on the face value of Rs2 a
share. It has more than 4300 branches and 2500 employees. The gross NPA is 0.58% and net
NPA is 0.32%. The stock may touch a new high in short to medium term.
Dish TV (29.00) (Code:532839) :- In December quarter, the DTH company registered
net profit of Rs152.69 crore against net loss of Rs168.29 crore in the corresponding period last
year. However, the company's income has gone down from Rs1638.50 crore to Rs1529.57 crore
in December quarter. The company's board has granted permission for investment of Rs3000 crore
in the company's subsidiary Dish Infra Services Pvt Ltd. The company has cut down the cost by
10%. It is scheduled to become debt-free. In the third quarter, the company has added 1.42 lakh
subscribers taking number of net subscribers to 2.36 crore. The subscription income has increased
to Rs1413 crore. The stock can be outperformer in near future.
Munjal Auto (Rs.54.00) (Code:520059) :- Autoparts and equipment sector company
has its registered office at Baroda. The company's equity is Rs20 crore, debt is Rs16.18 crore and
reserves is Rs262.65 crore. In September quarter, the company recorded net profit of Rs6.66 crore
on income of Rs325 crore with EPS of 0.67. The operating profit margins were at 4.35 % and net
profit margins were 2.05%. Currently, the auto sector is witnessing bullish trend which is helping
the ancillary segment. As against PE of 32 of the peers in the market, the company's stock is being
traded at PE multiple of 15. The stock has attractive valuation and it may touch a new top within 4-
6 months.
NOCIL (Rs127.00) (Code: 500730) :- Arvind Mafatlal Group company produces chemi-
cals. It was incubated in 1961. The biggest rubber manufacturing company of the country NOCIL is
a diversified company. Its products are used in tyre and rubber industries. The company with pres-
ence in 20 countries has its plants in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Around 70% income of the com-
pany comes from tyre business. The company's capexprogramme with investment of Rs170 crore
in Dahej (Gujarat) will be a game changer. The company will be benefitting with Government's
move to impose anti-dumping duty on specialty chemicals. In September quarter, the company
witnessed net profit of Rs52.84 crore on income of Rs271.99 crore with EPS of Rs3.20. The stock
can be considered for investment.

SEBI Registered Research Analyst)


* Disclosure :- The author has not brought / sold any stock advised in this news paper during last one month • All stocks rates
/ indices on 8th February,2019 unless specified o Stoploos is useful for Short - Medium term investors only
* Disclaimer :- • Smart Investment will not be responsible / for any loss arising out of investment based on its recommendation.
• Though, every care has been taken, we will not responsible for any errors / omissions • All disputes are subject to Ahmedabad
jurisdiction
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 32


INVESTMENT

Smart super duper - Dilip K. Shah

Teamlease Services (Rs.2773.00) (Code:539658) :- The company had come up


with IPO at price of Rs850 in beginning of 2016. The stock went up to Rs3338. The company's
market cap is Rs4741 crore. The promoters hold 40.78% and public hold 58.87% stake in the
company. It is active in segments like human resources services and people supply chain. As
against equity of Rs17.10 crore the company has reserves of Rs424.57 crore. In December quar-
ter, the company's income increased from Rs918.06 crore to Rs1172.23 crore, while profit increased
from Rs18.4 crore to Rs25.22 crore with EPS of Rs14.77. The stock has been witnessing fancy
and funds are taking interest in it. The stock seems to be attractive at current price. It can be bought
on downward movement.
Intellect Design (Rs.175.00) (Code:538835) :- It has got separated from Polaris.
The company's products are on list of banking sector including top banks of the world. As we are
moving towards digital economy such products will be more in demand. It also provides its ser-
vices to insurance and other financial services. The client list of the company also include RBI and
Central Bank of Sweden. In the December quarter, the company witnessed profit of Rs13.71 crore
as against Rs10.15 crore in the corresponding period last year, while income increased from
Rs270.67 crore to Rs374.72 crore in the same period. The analysts are bullish on this stock and
with turnaround buying may increase. Mutual Funds hold considerable stake in the company. Midcap
IT sector is in lime light so the stock can be bought in two-three parts in phased manner at lower
level.
INOX Leisure (Rs.261.00) (Code:532706) :- The group is active in chemicals, enter-
tainment and wind energy businesses. The group has been moving forward on path of growth
silently for many years. INOX Leisure owns 124 multiplexes with 496 screens in 61 cities of the
country. It is also active in film production and film distribution along with operating food courts and
restaurants. In December quarter, the company's income increased from Rs325.86 crore to
Rs433.09 crore, while profit increased from Rs13.19 crore to Rs36.46 crore with EPS of Rs3.90.
As against equity of Rs102.60 crore, the company has reserves of Rs571 crore. The stock is good
option to buy in phased manner.
Tata Global (Rs.185.00) (Code:500800) :- It is the biggest beverages company of
India, which is associated with trading, production and distribution of tea, coffee, water and other
beverages. It is active in braded beverages business in more than 40 countries spanning over
India, Europe, Canada, America and Australia. It is number two tea producer in the world. It is also
promoter of Tata Coffee. It is working on new projects through joint venture with multinational com-
panies and one of the important projects is opening coffee stores in India in association with
Starbucks. It has opened many stores till now. As against equity of Rs63.11 crore, the company
has huge reserves of Rs6968.49 crore. The promoters hold 34.45% and public hold 65.55% stake
in the company. In the first nine months of 2019, the company's income increased from Rs5126.95
crore to Rs5476.04 crore, while profit increased from Rs484.94 crore to Rs420.99 crore. It paid
250% dividend for FY2018.

Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 33


INVESTMENT

Di wan-E-Khas A.J. Diwan (Mumbai)


E-mail : divanconsultancy@rediffmail.com

After budget, RBI & Now election


In last week two three times nifty failed to cross its resistance level of 9985.but one it crossed,
Nifty touched 11000 mark. On Thursday nifty closed at 11069 on Thursday. Nifty has to remain
above 11010 levels for the uptrend. If able to close above 11120 than 11160 in sight.
On Wednesday despite market rised, breath of the market was negative. In this market is mov-
ing only on individual scrip. Its scrip .in the market shares which were fundamentally weak went
down heavily. Reliance capital ; in last issue we had written why share may go down to Rs.175.it
went down to rs.110.on last Thursday it is said that it finance sold ADAG group pledged shares.
Second R.Com touched Rs.5. ICICI Rs.350, Adani rs.330. Zee took support at lower level. The
results of adani port were bad and it was punished in the market.
Tata motors on Friday nosedived to Rs.150 from Rs.170 or so. Results may bring share to rs.140/
135. Us president meeting with china postponed so our steel shares went down. Tata Steel some
buying was witnessed at lower level but price may not sustained post results. JSW numbers dragged
share price to rs.266.on Thursday DOW was down over 200 points. It is good that crude also went
down.
High profile portfolio : - Those investors having rs.15 to rs.20 lakhs surplus may invest in
Nestle, Britannia, HUL, Colgate, Asian Paint. These are good companies for a long term invest-
ments. Reliance has come down and its good time to accumulate on any falls.
RBI : - The government should be happy as Mr. Das obliged with rate cut. Now government will
get Rs. 27000 Cr. from RBI by this month end. The earlier governors declined this. This advantage
of own man. Watch Asian paint on decline for investment.
Nifty has support at 10900 and index has at 36450
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 34


INVESTMENT

Investment Ideas telegram.me/rupeegains7

NIFTY :- For next week NIFTY has strong support around 10885 levels. Break will take it to
10815 levels. On the upper side NIFTY will face strong hurdle at 11045 levels, cross over with
volume and close above will create short covering at take NIFTY up to 11120-11170 levels…
BANK NIFTY :- For next week BANK NIFTY has strong support around 27150 levels.
Break will take it to 26890 levels. On the upper side BANK NIFTY will face strong hurdle at 27485
levels, cross over with volume and close above will create short covering at take BANK NIFTY up
to 27590-27710 levels…
INVESTMENT IDEAS
INDRAPRASTHA MEDICAL CORP. LTD (532150 & NSE) (37.6) (Face Value: Rs.10) :- In-
corporated in 1988, Delhi based Indraprastha Medical Corporation Limited provides medical ser-
vices. It is having hospital in Delhi.
It has an equity base of Rs.91.67crore that is supported by reserves of around Rs.140.64crore.
The Promoters hold 51% (Apollo Hospital group hold 25% and Government of India hold 26%),
HDFC holds 6.71% stake while the investing public holds 42.29% stake in the company.
Company has posted superb numbers for Q3FY19 & 9MFY19. During Q3FY19, its net profit
zoomed 29.04% to Rs.7.12crore from Rs.5.52crore in Q3FY18 on higher income of Rs.198.20crore
in Q3FY19 fetching an EPS of Rs.0.78. During 9MFY19, its PAT soared 37.11% to Rs.21.28crore
from Rs.15.52crore in 9MFY18 on higher income of Rs.587.75crore fetching an EPS of Rs.2.32.
Company has reported higher PAT in 9MFY19 than FY18. Stock is trading at P/E ratio of just 12.6x
which is cheapest against all peers.
IMCL is a regular dividend paying company and it has paid 15% dividend for FY18. At the
current share price of Rs 37.6 this result in a dividend yield of 4% which is highly attractive. Its 52
week high rate is Rs.59.9. Stock almost corrected 37% from 52 week high.
Government has announced Ayushman Bharat health insurance scheme in September 2018
and till December-18 more than 6.95 lakh people benefited from this scheme and 68% patients
have treated in private hospitals. Government has spent Rs.935crore till now. This figure clearly
indicates that, this scheme is beneficiary for private hospitals. Apollo Hospital is trading above
38% from its 52 week low price while IMCL is available near 4 year's low price.
Everyone, whose financial advisor is allowing to trade in this stock for medium to long term can
watch with a stop loss of Rs.32.
ITI LTD (523610 & NSE) (96) (Face Value Rs.10) :- ITI Ltd is a PSU under Dept.
of Telecommunications (DoT) offering diverse suite of products & services across various industry
segments. ITI has 5 facilities with modern manufacturing infrastructure located at Bengaluru,
Mankapur, Naini, Palakkad & Raebareli and a R&D centre in Bengaluru. As on 31st December
2018 Company has an order book of Rs.12111crore. Company will announce its Q3 numbers on
11th February. Everyone, whose financial advisor is allowing to trade in this stock for short term
can watch with a strict stop loss of Rs.94.
Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author,
his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in website. Author may have positions in above
stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer: Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is
technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by
them. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 35


INVESTMENT

MARKET TREND NIKHIL BHATT


(+919979380808)
WWW.INVESTMENTPOINT.IN

PERIOD : 11-2-2019 to 15-2-2019

Dear Traders…. For the Trading Period on 11.02.2019 TO 15.02.2019


NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 10944 AS ON 08.02.2019
NIFTY FO Range @ 10833 TO 11003 Point In Short Term…!!!
NIFTY FO has resistance at 10974 - 10990 Point; above which other resistance levels are at
11003 - 11033 Point with highly Volatile Trend, In Downside support levels are at 10909 - 10860
Point; below 10860 Point, other support levels are at 10833 - 10818 Point.
I am positive for next bullish trend only above @ 11003 Point but be with the trend. Let the
market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only...and
it's still a better strategy in the given Scenario...!!!
Regarding Long term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If NIFTY FO crosses
@ 11003 Point, again then the upper side target is quite high and it may touch @ 11047 Point in
short term...!!!
BANK NIFTY FO CLOSED @ 27309 AS ON 08.02.2019
BANK NIFTY FO Range @ 27027 TO 27505 Point In Short Term…!!!
BANK NIFTY FO has resistance at 27373 - 27404 Point; above which other resistance levels
are at 27474 - 27505 Point with highly Volatile Trend, In Downside support levels are at 27227 -
27170 Point; below 27170 Point, other support levels are at 27027 - 27007 Point.
I am positive for next bullish trend only above @ 27505 Point but be with the trend. Let the
market decide further moves. As we are saying from many days Buying is suggested in falls only...and
it's still a better strategy in the given Scenario...!!!
Regarding Long term positions, it is preferable to remain cautious now...!! If BANK NIFTY FO
crosses @ 27505 Point, again then the upper side target is quite high and it may touch @ 27575
Point in short term...!!
Golden Stocks For Trading For the date - 11.02.2019 to 15.02.2019
1. INDUSIND BANK (1499) : It is suggested to Buy @ Rs 1483 with SL of Rs 1477 for the target
of Rs 1515 - 1523; below Rs 1477 it can fall up to RS 1470 - 1460 levels. If it crosses Rs 1523 level
than expect nonstop rally up to Rs 1530....!!
2. TATA ELXSI (905) : Trading point of view Buy @ Rs 890 With SL of Rs 878 for the target of
Rs 919 - 930 level below Rs 878 It can show further downfall up to Rs 868…..!!!
3. M & M (683) : Buy @ Rs 670 levels considering minor support of Rs 663 and stop loss of Rs
657 for an upper target of Rs 693 - 700 levels. Below Rs 657 it can slip up to RS 653 - 647 lev-
els…!!!
4. RAYMOND LTD (687) : Buy @ Rs 673 levels considering minor support of Rs 666 and stop
loss of Rs 663 for an upper target of Rs 696 - 707 levels. Below Rs 663 it can slip up to RS 657 -
653 levels…!!!
5. ESCORTS LTD (659) : Buy @ Rs 647 levels considering minor support of Rs 644 and stop
loss of Rs 640 for an upper target of Rs 673 - 680 levels. Below Rs 640 it can slip up to RS 637 -
633 levels…!!!
Cont.....
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 36


INVESTMENT
6. DELTA MAGNETS (73) : Delivery base Buy @ Rs 68 of this stock near @ Rs 65 with SL of
Rs 62 for the target of Rs 77 - 80 level. It is very good for medium term position also…!!!
7. AGRI - TECH LTD (56) : This stock is looking very good to Buy @ Rs 53 with SL of Rs 50 for
the target of Rs 61 - 65 Levels below Rs 50 is stock shall witness free fall…!!!
8. HDFC LTD (1951) : It is suggested to Sell with SL Rs 1977 for the target of Rs 1937 - 1930
below @ Rs 1930 it can slip up to Rs 1927 - 1920 level. Above Rs 1977 level will take the stock to
Rs 1983 - 1990…!!!
9. ASIAN PAINT (1458) : It is suggested to Sell @ Rs 1473 with SL of Rs 1480 for the target of
Rs 1444 - 1437 ; below Rs 1437 it can fall up to RS 1430 - 1424 levels. If it crosses Rs 1480 level
than expect nonstop rally up to Rs 1488....!!
10. INDIGO (1198) : It is suggested to Sell with SL Rs 1212 for the target of Rs 1186 - 1180
below @ Rs 1180 it can slip up to Rs 1173 - 1167 level. Above Rs 1212 level will take the stock to
Rs 1220 - 1233..!!!
11. AJANTA PHARMA (948) : It is suggested to Sell @ Rs 969 with SL of Rs 977 for the target
of Rs 933 - 927 below Rs 927 it can fall up to RS 919 - 911 levels. If it crosses Rs 977 level than
expect nonstop rally up to Rs 989....!!
Note: - Before Act Please refer Terms & conditions, Disclaimer on www.nikhilbhatt.in

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Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 37


INVESTMENT

Primary Market - Dilip K. Shah

The Government is in haste for disinvestment of 35 central units to reduce the deficit
MSTL has filed prospectus with SEBI for selling 17,60,000 shares of MSTL:
IREDA may also come up with IPO
This week three BSE SME to enter into the market
Rs10.22 crore IPO of Anmol (I) and Rs1.30 crore IPO of Jonjua Over will open on February 12
Kranti Ind's IPO with fixed price of Rs37 will open on February 14 and close on February 20
Manappurm Fin's NCDs issue gets poor response: Has got 0.25 times response till now
IB Consumer Fin's Rs3000 crore NCDs issue gets good response with 1.13 times subscription
Last week two SME IPOs got listed
Chalet Hotel's mainboard IPO got listed with 4% premium: stock prices spurt
Xelpmoc Design's mainboard IPO got listed with discount but prices recovered after listing
Surani Steel's BSE SME IPO got listed with premium and stock prices shots up
Ritco Logistics IPO got listed with premium but stock prices are in discount at present
Two mainboard IPOs of Xelpmoc Design and Chalet Hotels and NSE SME IPO of Surani Stell
Tubes and BSE SME IPO of Ritco Logistics have got listed. Of all four IPOs only Xelpmoc Design
IPO got listed with discount.
Two NCDs issues that of Manappuram Fin and Indiabulls Consumer Fin are still into the mar-
ket, of which the former has got poor response till now.
With listing of two mainboard IPOs, the primary market has become inactive as no new an-
nouncement has been made. The response received by two IPOs shows that the small investors
are not interested in the market. Unless and until the mainboard IPOs get listed with higher premi-
ums the retail investors are not likely to re-enter into the market.
In absence of mainboard IPOs, SME IPOs keep the momentum going in the market. Currently,
three SME IPOs - Anmol (I), Jonjua Overseas and Kranti Ind have been announced and one more
IPO from Mindpool Technologies may enter the market soon.
* Last week's IPO listing:-
• Mainboard IPOs:
Xelpmoc Design (542367) :- The mainboard IPO with offer price of Rs66 got listed on February
4 at price of Rs56 and went up to Rs58.80 and down to Rs56 before closing at Rs58.80. It should
be noted that despite bad sentiments in the market on Friday the stock prices shot up to Rs71.30,
which shows good premium against offer price.
Chalet Hotels (542399) :- The mainboard IPO with offer price of Rs280 got listed on February 7

Subscription figure of Subscription figure of at price of Rs291 and went up


Manappuram Finance NCDs Indiabulls Consumer NCDs to Rs295.30 and down to
Rs250.20 and with sudden re-
Category No. of BOnd Issue Category No. of BOnd Issue
covery it closed at Rs290.40. On
Offered/ Subscribed Offered/ Subscribed
Reserved 8-2-2019 Reserved 8-2-2019 Friday the stock closed at
Cat. I (Inst.) 1,50,000 0.00x Cat. I (Inst.) 5,00,000 4.00x Rs292.
Cat. II (Non Inst.) 1,50,000 0.04x Cat. II (Non Inst.) 5,00,000 0.03x • SME IPO:
Cat. III (HNI) 4,50,000 0.05x Cat. III (HNI) 7,50,000 0.14x Surani Steel Tubes :-
Cat. IV (Retail) 7,50,000 0.47x Cat. IV (Retail) 7,50,000 0.93x
Total (Base Issue) 15,00,000 0.25x Total (Base Issue) 25,00,000 1.13x Cont...
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 38


INVESTMENT

ADAG Group's shares crumble due to bad sentiment about the company still....
Anil Ambani's Reliance General Insurance hopes
success of its re-filed IPO of Rs1500 to Rs 200 crore
The market sentiment is A Ray of Hope Rough Weather
quite negative about ADAG Weak Stocks of ADAG M. Cap 1 Yr.
shares. However, Anil Earlier Now
(Rs. Cr.) Change
Ambani's Reliance General Motilal Oswal Motilal Oswal
Reliance Nippon MF 8036 -51%
Insurance company is all set Credit Suisse Credit Suisse Reliance Infrastructure 5976 -49%
for IPO re-filing. The company Edeliwess Edelweiss Reliance Power 4797 -59%
had got nod for IPO but it was UBS Citic CLSA Reliance Capital 3834 -65%
postponed due to bad market Haitong Haitong Reliance Communication 2088 -71%
sentiments. IDBI Capital Insudind Reliance Home Finance 1475 -59%
Reliance Naval 743 -74%
Reliance General Insurance has got approval from IRDAI
Total 26948 -58%
and it will have to get nod from ROC and SEBI. However,
the insurance company's performance has been good so the IPO may sail through. The issue
size is likely to be Rs1500 crore to Rs2000 crore. The company has changed some investment
bankers. It has replaced UBS with Citic CLSA, IDBI Captial with Indusind. However, bankers
have not been changed. The bankers include Motilal Oswal, Credit Suisse, Edelweiss, IBS and
Haitong. Along with fresh equity, the issue will also include OFS from Reliance Capital. It should
be noted that in October 2017, ADAG's asset managers IPO of Rs1540 crore got 80 times sub-
scription.

Gujarat-based company's NSE SME IPO with offer price of Rs52 got listed on February 6 at nomi-
nal premium of Rs53.50 and went down to Rs50.45 before closing at Rs53.25. It closed at Rs56.90
on Friday.
Ritco Logistics (542383) :- The issue with offer price of Rs73 got listed on BSE SME at price of
Rs77.40 and closed at Rs73.55. It closed at discounted price of Rs72.90 on Friday.
* This week's SME IPOs:-
Currently, three SME IPOs - Anmol (I), Jonjua Overseas and Kranti Ind have been announced
and one more IPO from Mindpool Technologies may enter the market soon.
Anmol (I) :- The company's IPO will open on February 12 which will offer 31 lakh equity shares
at fixed price of Rs33 a share to raise Rs14.23 crore. It will get listed on BSE SME platform. More
details and recommendations are given in separate box.
Jonjua Overseas :- The company will offer 13 lakh shares at price of Rs10 a share to raise
Rs1.30 crore. The small issue will open on February 12 and close on February 15. More details
are given in separate box.
Kranti Industries :- The company will offer 23.29 lakh shares at price of Rs37 a share to raise
Rs8.56 crore. More details will be given next week.
Mindpool Techno :- NSE SME issue will offer 15 lakh equity shares soon. More details will
be given next week.
* This week's NCDs issues:-
• Manappuram Finance :- The issue with base price of Rs150 crore and shelf limit of Rs1000
crore opened on January 28. However, it has got only 0.25 times subscription so getting full
subscription seems difficult for the company.
• Indiabulls Consumer Fin :- The issue with base price of Rs250 crore and shelf limit of
Rs3000 crore opened on February 4. It has got 1.13 times subscription as on February 8. It has
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 39


INVESTMENT

Non Convertible Debenture (NCD) Issues at a Glance


Sr Company Issue Open Bond size F.Value Min. Listing Rating Recomm.
Issue Close (Rs. Cr.) (Rs.) App.
1. Manappuram 28-1-19 Base Size of Rs. 150 Cr. 1,000/- 10 NCDs BSE AA/Stable by CARE
Finance 27-2-19 with an optionto retain (Rs.10,000) & AVOID
Finance Shelf Limit Rs. 1000 Cr. Lead manager : AA+/Stable by BWR
A.K. Capital Services
Edelweiss Fin. Services
2. Indiabulls 4-2-2019 Base Size of Rs. 250 Cr. 1,000/- 10 NCDs BSE AA+/Stable by CRISIL
Consumer 4-3-2019 with an optionto retain (Rs.10,000) NSE &
Finance Shelf Limit Rs. 2750 Cr. Lead manager : AA+ Outlook Stable APPLY
(Aggregating up to Edelweiss, A.K. Capital, by BWR
Rs. 3000 Cr.) Axis Bank, Trust Inv. Adv.

NSE SME IPO


Sr Company Issue Open Dt. Issue size Offer price Minimum Rating Remark
Issue Close Dt. (Rs. Cr.) (Rs.) Applications Size %
1. Mindpool 14-2-2019 12,00,000 Eq. 30 4000 Eq. Shares NEXT WEEK
Technologies 20-2-2019 (Rs. 3.60 Cr.) (Rs. 1,20,000)

Listing Information of BSE / NSE SME & Main Line IPO


Co. Name BSE Listing Offer Listing Listing Listing Listing CMP
Code Date Price Price Day Day Day
(Rs.) (Rs.) High Low Close 8-2-19
Chalet Hotels (Main Line) 542399 07-02-19 280 291 295.3 250.2 290.4 292.00
Ritco Logistics (BSE SME) 542383 07-02-19 73 77.4 77.4 73.55 73.55 72.90
Xelpmoc Design (Main Line) 542367 04-02-19 66 56 58.8 56 58.8 71.30
Surani Steel Tubes NSE SME 06-02-19 52 53.1 53.5 50.45 53.25 56.90

BSE SME IPO


Sr Company Issue Open Dt. Issue size Offer price Minimum Rating Remark
Issue Close Dt. (Rs. Cr.) (Rs.) Applications Size %
1. Anmol 12-2-2019 31,00,000 Eq. 33 4,000 Eq. Shares 36% : APPLY
India Ltd. 14-2-2019 (Rs. 10.23 Cr.) (Rs. 1,32,000) (Long Term)
2. Jonjua 12-2-2019 13,00,000 Eq. 10 10,000 Eq. Shares 32%
Overseas 15-2-2019 (Rs. 1.30 Cr.) (Rs. 1,00,000) RISKY BET
3. Kranti 14-2-2019 23,19,000 Eq. 37 3,000 Eq. Shares NEXT WEEK
Industries 20-2-2019 (Rs. 8.58 Cr.) (Rs. 1,11,000)

got very good response in short term. It will close on March 4.


* PSU Disinvestment :- The government is in haste for PSU disinvestment to reduce deficit.
DIPAM is all set to sell strategic stake in 35 central public sector units. Niti Ayog has given fifth
list of profitable and non-profitable PSUs to DIPAM for strategic stake sell. Cabinet approval will
be sought very soon.
• MSTC :- Miniratna company provides e-commerce services for e-auction and e-sale. It has
filed papers with sebi for IPO. The government will sell 25% stake or 17.60 lakh shares. Post
IPO, the government's holdings will come down from 89.85% to 64.85%.
• IREDA :- Indian Renewable Energy Development plans to sell 13.90 crore equity shares next
month.
****
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 40


INVESTMENT

Anmol India BSE - SME IPO


Opens on 12th February & Closes on 14th February
Price Band fixed Rs. 33; Listing on BSE - SME Platform
Fundamental appears good but offer is fully price
Investors may apply for long term in this IPO
Incorporated in 1998, Assam based Anmol India Limited is a company engaged in the business of
Coal import and supply. The primary product of the Company is USA Coal (US Napp Coal and USA
ILB). It also deals in Indonesian Coal and Petroleum Coke. Small and Medium scale manufacturers
are the primary clients of the company. It caters to the needs of clients in over 100 different locations
across India. The client list comprises of companies from dozen different types of industries and
trades both in Coal and Pet Coke. The company has 10 permanent employees on its payroll.
Issue Details
• Issue Opens on 12th February & Closes on 14th February 2019
• Object of the issue : Purpose of working capital requirements, General Corporate Purpose & ex-
penses of the issue.
• Issue Size : 31,00,000 Equity Shares
• Face Value Rs. 10, Total Rs. 10.23 Cr.
• Offer price Fixed at Rs. 33 Per Shares
• Minimum Lot Size : 4000 Shares, Listing BSE - SME
• BRLM : Share India Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
• Registrar : Bigshare Services Pvt. Ltd.
• Company management : Vijaykumar and Chakshu Goyal
Particulars (Rs. Cr.) FY 16 FY17 FY 18 FY19 6M
Financial Total Revenue 189.81 186.50 299.24 263.06
Profit After Tax 0.83 1.09 2.62 1.72
Performance EPS 1.13 1.49 3.60 2.34
RONW (%) 10.85 12.50 23.14 13.05
• Issue constitutes 29.86 % of the post issue paid up capital
• Average of last 3 yrs. EPS Rs. 2.49 & RONW 17.54
• Pre IPO Eq. capital Rs. 7.28 Cr. Post IPO Equity Capital Rs. 10.38 Cr.
• Pre Issue P/BV Ratio : 2.12 (NAV : 15.56)
• Post Issue P/BV Ratio : 1.47 (NAV : 22.42)
• Pre IPO Pe Ratio : 9.16
• Post IPO asking PE on fully diluted Equity : 9.16
• Industry Peer Group PE Ratio : 10
• BRLM’s Performance : It is the 1st Manded form Share India Capital
Other side of IPO
" The average cost of acquisition of equity shares to the promoter is only Rs. 3.33 & offer price is Rs. 33
" It has issued bonus shares in the ratio of 2:1 in July 2018
" The registered office, branch office and warehouses are not owned by the company.
" Company's long is not registered
" It has experienced negative cash flow
" Risky of foreign exchange rate fluctuations
" Company does not have long term contracts.
" Dependent of few suppliers
Recommendation : It has strong track record but offer is fully priced. One can apply in this IPO for
long term.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 41


INVESTMENT

Janjua Overseas BSE - SME IPO


Opens on 12th February & Closes on 15th February
Price Band fixed Rs. 10; Listing on BSE - SME Platform
Considering inconsistency in financial performance high PE
It’s a risky bet despite issue offer is at par
Incorporated in 1993, Punjab based Jonjua Overseas Limited is a company engaged in IT-enabled
services. The company is a certified service provider to global clients of IT Solution & Business Services.
The services include Startup consultancy, Outsourcing Services that include Import and Export Consultancy,
International Project Finance and IPO, Legal and Accounts Outsourcing, Digital Solutions includes Website
and Software Development and Cross Border Marketing, Brand Building and Business Plan service pro-
vider. The company has 9 full-time employees on its payroll.
Issue Details
• Issue Opens on 12th February & Closes on 15th February 2019
• Object of the issue : Working capital requirements, General Corporate Purpose & expenses of the
issue.
• Issue Size : 13,00,000 Equity Shares
• Face Value Rs. 10, Total Rs. 1.30 Cr.
• Offer price Fixed at Rs. 10 Per Shares
• Minimum Lot Size : 10,000 Shares, Listing BSE - SME
• BRLM : Finshore Management Services Ltd.
• Registrar : Satellite Corporate Services Pvt. Ltd.
• Company Management : Major Harjinder Singh Jonjua (Retd.), Mrs. Manider Kaur Jonjua & Mr.
Harmanpreet Singh Jonjua.

Particulars (Rs. Cr.) FY 16 FY17 FY 18 FY19 6M


Financial Total Revenue 0.32 0.37 0.66 0.49
Profit After Tax 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.01
Performance EPS 0.15 0.09 0.04 0.01
RONW (%) 0.43 0.56 0.69 0.23
Note : It has shown other comprehensive income Rs. 2.97 Cr., Rs. 0.08 Cr., Rs. 0.13 Cr. & 0.10 Cr. Respectively.
• Issue constitutes 27.45% of the post issue paid up capital
• Average of last 3 yrs. EPS Rs. 0.76 & RONW 3.31%
• Pre IPO Equity capital Rs. 3.44 Cr. Post IPO Equity Capital Rs. 4.74 Cr.
• Pre Issue P/BV Ratio : 0.47 (NAV : 21.45)
• Post Issue P/BV Ratio : 0.58 (NAV : 17.11)
• Pre IPO PE Ratio 24.10.
• Post IPO asking PE on fully diluted Equity 14.253
• Industry Peer Group PE Ratio : NIL
• BRLM’s Performance : Total 7 Issues Handaled in Last 3 Years. In last 7 listing, 4 Issues opened with premium & 3 with
discount.
Other side of IPO
• The average cost of acquisition of equity shares to the promoter is from Rs. 5.96
• Company has issued bonus shares on Feb. 22, 2016 in the ratio of 1:20, on 31st May 2016 in the ratio of 1:25 on
Sep. 28, 2016 at 1:40, on Feb 13 at 1:5, Dec. 19 2017 at 1:5, June 20, 2018 at 1:3 & on only 26, 2018 in the ratio of
1:3
• Negative cash flow from operating, investing and financial activities.
• Majority revenue is derived from Top-10 customers.
• It has to face competition from organized and unorganized players.
• Its overseas business is penetrated only in North America and Africa.
Note :- Considering inconsistency in financial performance and high PE ratio, it's risky bet despite at par offer
price.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 42


INVESTMENT

Smart Best Buy S. N. Zaveri

Siemens : Profit up, Margin up, stock will move up


Federal Bank : Bank on this stock
Tech Mahindra : Digital continues to be key growth segment
SRF gets momentum following strong Q3 numbers
Hero MotoCorp : Budget will benefit
Siemens Ltd (Rs. 1030.00) (Code : 500550) (F. V. : 2.00) : Siemens Limited has
posted a stable set of numbers for the quarter ending December 31, 2018. Its standalone revenues
increased 15.5% yoy to Rs2807.1crore. Operating profit grew 12.5% yoy to Rs306.5 crore for the
current quarter. EBITDA margin softened from 11.2%. Net profit after taxes witnessed strong growth
of 19.7% yoy to Rs228 crore. Top-line growth was mainly led by Digital Factory (23% sales mix),
Process Industries (18% sales mix) and Power and Gas business (12% sales mix). Revenues from
Power and Gas increased by 17.7% yoy to Rs350.9 crore. EBIT surged 72.5% yoy to Rs 93 crore,
while EBIT margin expanded to 26.5% (vs. 18.1% in Q1FY18). Energy Management, which con-
tributed 36% to the total revenues, marginally grew by 1.5% yoy to Rs1,051.8 crore. Digital Factory
business saw a growth of 35.6% to Rs 684.2 crore. Revenues from Process Industries and Drives
business witnessed strong growth of 31% to Rs 525.7 crore. The company’s new orders saw a
growth of 4.1% to Rs3,391cr compared to Rs3257 crore in same quarter last year. The stock has
improved by more than 10 per cent in last three months. Buy.
Federal Bank (Rs. 84.20) (Code : 500469) (F. V. : 2.00) : Kerala-based Federal
Bank has more than thousand branches and ATMs spread across different states. The pioneer
among traditional banks in India in using technology to leverage operations was among the first to
computerize all its branches. Net interest income (NII) increased 13% to Rs 1077.29 crore in the
December 2018 quarter over a year ago. Other income went up 51% to Rs 345.55 crore, boosting
the net total income 21% to Rs 1422.84 crore. The growth of other income was on the back of the
34% jump in the core fee income. Operating profit spurted 26% to Rs 707.83 crore. Provision and
contingencies jumped 17% to Rs 190.12 crore. As a result, profit before tax (PBT) advanced 30%
to Rs 517.71 crore. Net profit jumped 28% to Rs 333.63 crore. The net interest margins (NIMs)
improved two bps to 3.17% over the September 2018 quarter due to incremental yields, mainly
from the corporate book, picking up. The current-account-savings-account (Casa) deposit ratio
spurted 23.62% to Rs 41172.41 crore in the quarter. The mix was steady at 33.1%.The Casa ratio
has risen to 33.3% from 24% five years ago.Net NPAs stood at Rs 1817.29 crore as against Rs
1796.29 crore and Rs 1156.68 crore. Net NPAs were 1.72% as against 1.78% and 1.36%.NII grew
16% to Rs 3079.82 crore. PBT 18% to Rs 1330.26 crore and net profit 18% to Rs 863.38 crore in
the nine months ended December 2018 over a year ago. The stock is worth accumulation.
Tech Mahindra (Rs. 803.00) (Code : 532755) (F. V. : 5.00) : IT company Tech
Mahindra has posted a 27.5 per cent increase in consolidated profit after tax (PAT) to Rs.1,203
crore in the December 2018 quarter.The company's consolidated revenue from operations increased
15 per cent to Rs.8,944 crore, against Rs. 7,776 crore in the year-ago quarter. This is a milestone
quarter for Tech Mahindra with USD 5 billion annual revenue run rate in sight. The BPO business
continued its strong performance, growing 22 percent YoY and 13 percent QoQ. The company has
been steadily adding employees in this business, which stands testimony to its growth outlook.Digital
continues to be at the heart of this growth journey, surging 10 percent sequentially and constituting
Cont...
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 43


INVESTMENT
33 percent of revenue. The company bagging deals worth $440 million in the quarter. The com-
pany added one net new client each in the top brackets of over $50 million and $20 million and
saw five new net addition to its total clientele.Margin was up 50 basis points at 19.3 per cent. The
stock is trading at PE of around 15. Buy.
SRF (Rs. 2220.00) (Code : 503806) (F. V. : 10.00) : SRF has reported strong
quarterly numbers. Its consolidated revenue grew by 41% to Rs. 1,964 crore.EBIT increased by
15% to Rs. 259 crore. Net profit was up 26% from Rs. 131 crore to Rs. 166 crore. The Technical
Textiles Business reported an increase of 21% in its segment revenue from Rs. 452 crore to Rs.
548 crore during Q3FY19 over CPLY. The operating profit of the Technical Textiles Business
increased by 7% from Rs. 76 crore to Rs. 82 crore. The Chemicals Business reported an increase
of 46% in its segment revenue from Rs. 402 crore to Rs. 586 crore. The Packaging Films Business
reported an increase of 63% in its segment revenue from Rs. 430 crore to Rs. 703 crore. The Board
approved a project to debottleneck certain specialty chemical plants to further increase the produc-
tion capacity at Dahej at an estimated cost of Rs. 140 crore. SRF Limited is a chemical based
multi-business entity engaged in the manufacturing of industrial and specialty intermediates. The
stock has rallied in recent days. Buy this momentum stock.
Hero MotoCorp (Rs. 2932.00) (Code : 500182) (F. V. : 2.00) : Hero Motocorp’s
(HMCL) 3QFY19 numbers were broadly in line with estimates. Net revenue at Rs 78.6bn(+7.7 per
cent YoY) was led by 5.3 per cent volume growth. EBITDA fell 5 per cent YoY to Rs 11bn as
margins came inline with estimates at 14 per cent (-180bps YoY/112 bps QoQ). Margins were
impacted due to input cost pressures. APAT stood at Rs 7.7bn (-4 per cent) YoY. We expect 4Q
retails to be higher, led by marriage season demand (there are significantly more auspicious mar-
riage days in 2019 as compared to 2018) and recovery in rural markets (aided by the budget stimu-
lus.). Thus, we expect sales to grow in high single digit in FY20. The government has announced
further initiatives that are targeted towards raising agri and rural incomes. As Hero derives c. half of
its sales from this segment, the OEM will benefit from rising two-wheeler demand. Also, as the
income tax limit has been raised to Rs 0.5mn (from Rs 0.25mn earlier), the budget will provide
more income in the hands of middle-class consumers These factors are supportive of consumption
demand and we expect the industry to grow in high single digits in FY19-20. Invest.

(SEBI Registered Research Analyst)


* Disclosure :- The author has not brought / sold any stock advised in this news paper during last one month • All stocks rates / indices on
8th February, 2019 unless specified o Stoploos is useful for Short - Medium term investors only
* Disclaimer :- • Smart Investment will not be responsible / for any loss arising out of investment based on its recommendation. • Though,
every care has been taken, we will not responsible for any errors / omissions o All disputes are subject to Ahmedabad jurisdictioner
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 44


INVESTMENT

Dalal Street Whispers - Dilip K. Shah

ISGEC Heavy Engg. (Rs. 5,041.00) (Code: 532832) :- The board of this industrial
machinery manufacturer will meet on February 9 to finalise Q3 results, to decide on interim divi-
dend and stock split.
Reliance Industries (Rs. 1,277.00) (Code: 500325) :- The stock has been on the
move since the budget. It has held steady even in a weak market. Reliance announced investment
of Rs. 10,000 crores in West Bengal. Majority of this would be for expanding Jio services.
Sun Pharma (Rs. 430.00) (Code: 524715) :- The stock has been highly volatile
owing to corporate governance issues. The company's US arm Taro showed a big jump in Decem-
ber quarter profit. Movement is being seen in the stock.
Astrazenca Pharma (Rs. 1,795.00) (Code: 506820) :- This pharma company has
reported turnaround results in the third quarter. It reported profit of Rs. 29 crore for Q3.
Ashok Leyland (Rs. 86.00) (Code: 500477) :- This commercial vehicles
manufacturer's sales are expected to get a boost from lower interest rates. The stock has emerged
as the top gainer among auto stocks after repo rate cut by RBI.
ITC (Rs. 275.00) (Code: 500875) :- This diversified major will invest Rs. 1,750 crores
for setting up a new FMCG facility and to upgrade the existing facility in West Bengal. The com-
pany is expected to gain from many announcements in the budget.
Indraprastha Gas (Rs. 285.00) (Code: 532514) :- This city gas distribution com-
pany reported 5.7% jump in net profit and 6% rise in income for the December quarter. Brokerages
Nomura has retained Buy rating with a target price of Rs. 400, while Morgan Stanley has given
Overweight rating with a target price of Rs. 351. Deutsche Bank has revised the target price from
Rs. 315 to Rs. 330.
Vodafone-Idea (Rs. 30.00) (Code: 532822) :- This telecom major, formed by the
merger of Vodafone and Idea, reported 53% increase in income for December quarter. Even though
the entity reported a loss of Rs. 5,004 crores, Deutsche Bank has retained the Buy rating with a
target price of Rs. 70.
Borosil Glass (Rs. 217.00) (Code: 502219) :- The shares of this glass and glass
products company jumped after reporting strong results for December quarter. Income went up by
44%, and net profit by more than 15%.
Varun Beverages (Rs. 815.00) (Code: 540180) :- Market reports suggest that this
container and packaging sector company is benefiting from inorganic growth route. The company
recently bagged franchisee rights of Pepsi India in three states.
Ceat (Rs. 1,107.00) (Code: 500878) :- This tyre manufacturer has begun commercial
production of bus and truck radial tyres at its Tamil Nadu plant from February 7. Current is being
seen in the stock.
Timken (Rs. 580.00) (Code: 522113) :- This Tata Group company has reported excel-
lent results for third quarter. Sales rose by 38%, net profit by 188%, and EBIDTA by 152%. The
share is likely to be in the limelight.
DB Realty (Rs. 23.00) (Code: 533160) :- The reduction in key rates by RBI will prove
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 45


INVESTMENT
to be a booster dose for real estate sector. Reduction is also expected in GST rates for real estate
when the GST Council meets next.
Uttam Sugar (Rs. 94.00) (Code: 532729) :- Market reports suggest that a large
package is likely to be announced for sugarcane farmers by the central government before the
elections.
Praj Industries (Rs. 142.00) (Code: 522205) :- Shares of this plant and machinery
manufacturer for ethanol are likely to remain in focus. The government is said to be considering a
package to increase ethanol production.
Seamec (Rs. 319.00) (Code: 526807) :- This shipping sector company has reported
excellent numbers for third quarter. Sales rose 156%, net profit 547%, and EBIDTA surged by
918%. Big movement can be seen in the stock.
Munjal Auto (Rs. 55.00) (Code: 520059) :- This auto ancillary company is gaining
from the strong performance of Hero MotoCorp. The company is also expected to further improve
its performance going ahead.
Walchandnagar (Rs. 79.00) (Code: 507410) :- This heavy engineering and de-
fence sector company reported 130% jump in net profit for the third quarter.

Disclosures as per SECURITIES AND EXCCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (Research Analysts) Regulation, 2014; • I and / or my clients may have investment in this
stocks • I/My family have no financial interest or beneficial interest of more than 1% in the company whose stocks I am recommending • Stop loss is useful for Short
/ Medium Term investor Only • Smart Investment will not be responsible / liable for any loss arising out of investment based on tis advices • Past performance may or
may not be substainedin future " (Dilip K. Shah) Research Analyst : SEBI Regn No. : INH000002152

Think about NIFTY FUTURE ?


Think
WWW. NIFTYPREPAID.COM
Enjoy REAL Profit !!!!
Make CONSISTENT Profit !!!!
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Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 46


INVESTMENT
Senior Astrologer
Dharmesh Joshi
Mob. : 9909941816
E-mail :
stockmarket@ganeshaspeaks.com

Sensex Predictions : Dt. 11th February to 15th February

" Please consider 10 minutes plus and minus in each prediction, and act accordingly. "
Ganesha advises you to compare every prediction with the prediction of the previous time slot. "

11-02-2019 Monday :- " You will enjoy trading in Nifty today as there will be good speed in
your transactions. " Between 9:15 and 10:15, overall Nifty will move around the psychological
surface. " From 10:15 to 11:05, there will be several small corrections in the market. But there won't
be much potential. " From 11:05 to 14:55, there is no clear trend in the market. So go for jobbing,
avoid taking big risks. " Nifty will move up in the last 35 minutes.

12-02-2019 Tuesday :- Between 9:15 and 11:25, you will enjoy jobbing. If you do proper buy-
sell during this phase, you will earn good money. " Between 11:25 and 12:55, you may earn good
money if you take high risk, so reshuffle accordingly. " From 12:55 to 13:30, Nifty will move up. "
Between 13:30 and 15:30, as per the big picture, Nifty will move mixed to positive.

13-02-2019 Wednesday :- " Sun will get conjunct with Mercury today and will go away from
Ketu. " Go for only two trends today, other time frames won't be useful. " Sell Nifty around 11:05
and exit around 12:05. " Buy Nifty around 14:40, exit as soon as you earn Rs 2.

14-02-2019 Thursday :- " There will be more volatility in Nifty and the movement will be
volume based. " From 9:15 to 10:05, Nifty will be around the surface. " Between 10:05 and 11:35,
no good prospects are seen for trading. " From 11:35 to 12:55, Nifty will be down. " From 12:55 to
13:30, Nifty will be up. " The phase between 13:30 and 15:30 can be divided into two parts: " In the
first phase, Nifty will be mixed to negative. " In the second phase, Nifty will be mixed to positive.

15-02-2019 Friday :- " From 9:15 to 9:31:42, Nifty will show a mixed trend. " The time 9:31:42
may become a turning point, so whatever is the trend, make changes accordingly and let there be
stability in the market. " The time frame from 10:00 to 12:00 is of zero weightage, so just do jobbing.
" Between 12:00 and 12:30, Nifty will be negative. " From 12:30 to 14:30, Nifty will be mixed and
won't be good for trading. " Between 14:30 and 15:15, Nifty will move up. " There is a possibility of
selling pressure in Nifty in the last 15 minutes.
Financial Weekly

SMART 10th Feb. 2018 to 16nd Feb. 2019 47


INVESTMENT

REVIEW OF “SMART PLUS NEWS LETTER”


Amazing 25% RETURN SMART GAIN
FOR SMART INVESTORS
Company Reccom. Weekly Ch. Company Reccom. Weekly Ch.
4-2-2019 High (%) 4-2-2019 High (%)
Sahyadri Ind. 172 184 6.98 Chambal Fert. 172 174 1.16
HCL Techno 1044 1077 3.16 Cromtpon Greaves 215 221 2.79
Titan 1034 1076 4.06 RBL Bank 574 607 5.75
Shriram Trans. 1043 1110 6.42 NIIT Techno 1317 1333 1.21
Tech Mah. 746 824 10.46 Ajanta Pharma 982 995 1.32
PNB Housing Fin. 921 991 7.6 HDFC Bank 2091 2136 2.15
Godfrey Phillips 935 978 4.6 Divis Labs. 1532 1684 9.92
Britannia 3251 3317 2.03 Deepak Fert. 117 120 2.56
CESC 692 738 6.65 Arvind Smart Space125 129 3.2
Venkys India 2362 2510 6.27 Indigo 176 215 22.16
Bajaj Finserv 6100 6288 3.08 Crest Ventures 132 135 2.27
Ramco Cement 601 634 5.49 Century Plyboard 167 174 4.19
IG Petro 286 302 5.59 Sharda Corpchem 324 334 3.09
Piramal Enterpirse2153 2246 4.32 Ashok Leyland 83 88 6.02
Mphasis 1008 1040 3.17 Dhunseri Ventures 93 96 3.23
City Union Bank 189 193 2.12 Amarjyoti Spg. 95 102 7.37
ICICI Pru. 288 317 10.07 Manglore Chem. 42 44 4.76
Indraprastha Gas 286 310 8.39 Dish TV 24 30 25.0
Rallis India 160 164 2.5 Praj Industries 128 147 14.84
Polyplex Corp. 483 490 1.45 Texmaco Rail 55.9 61 9.12

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