Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Clarke, G.R.T
School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Email gordon.clarke@qub.ac.uk
Barbour, S.L.
Department of Civil & Geological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon.
Email barbour@usask.ca
Sivakumar, V.
School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Email v.sivakumar@qub.ac.uk
ABSTRACT The future, long-term, stability of slopes in cuttings and embankments is of increasing concern among
geotechnical engineers in the UK. A study of the motorway earthworks in the UK (Perry, 1999) conservatively
estimates that three times as many slopes are likely to fail than have failed to date if no preventative measures are
taken to account for climate change and progressive failure. Elevated pore-pressures as well as pore-pressure cycling
are both responsible for decreases in soil strength and the stability of slopes (Potts et al 1997). Recent studies in
Northern Ireland have been directed towards investigating the effect of rainfall events on the long term stability of
cuttings on both road and rail infrastructure. Several cuttings in glacial till (Hughes et al. 2001, Clarke et al. 2005) have
been investigated in detail and long-term monitoring of near surface pore pressure changes have been recorded and
correlated with rainfall events. Monitored short-term (hourly) and long-term (annual) fluctuations in pore pressure
response due to climatic forcing have been simulated in order to identify the properties and processes controlling
pore-pressure dynamics within the cutting slopes. The paper presents the field monitoring data of pore pressure
change correlated with rainfall events for the north of Ireland. The effect of rainfall events on stability has been
discussed and the implication of climate change on the geotechnical infrastructure in the UK, such as more intense
winter rainfall events and drier summer weather, have been outlined.
1. INTRODUCTION
Instability of slopes, both natural and man-made, is an
Infrastructure embankments and cuttings are used to increasing global problem and can cause extensive
afford the passage of transport with a minimal need for damage to transportation infrastructure. Slope
changes in vertical alignment. In the UK, embankments instabilities, and the resulting movement of the landform,
and cuttings (collectively referred to as earthworks or are a common problem in the United Kingdom, and they
earth structures) make up about one third of the total occasionally result in catastrophic failures (Perry, 1989;
asset value for transport infrastructure (Perry, 1989). The Crabb & Atkinson, 1991, The Scottish Executive, 2005).
viability of replacing these assets is poor, and the cost of Increasing frequency of severe weather events
maintaining them is increasing. associated with climate change (Hulme et al, 2002) has
14
o
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Month
Mean Minimum Daily Mean Maximum Daily
Loughbrickland
FIGURE 3: monthly mean values for daily minimum and
maximum temperatures at Magherally (Latitude 54.36O N
O
Longitude -6.195 W Elevation 97.0mAOD), for the years
1961-90 (source: BADC 2005).
3.2 Precipitation
FIGURE 4 Mean annual rainfall for Northern Ireland, for the
Northern Ireland has a general west-east trend of years 1961-90 (Betts, 1999)
decreasing precipitation which is complicated by
topography. Highest areas of upland receive annual
precipitation in excess of 1600 mm, and the driest areas 200
are surrounding Lough Neagh with annual totals less 180 1995-2005
than 750 mm (Figure 4). Annual total precipitation for 160 1965-1975
Precepitation (mm)
Winter mean -0.5 - +1.0 +1.0 - +2.5 +1.5 - +4.0 FIGURE 5 Mean monthly values for precipitation at
O
Extreme Magherally (Latitude 54.36 N Longitude -6.195O W
Approx. 10-fold increase in number of
summer Elevation 97.0mAOD), for the years 1965-75 and 1995-
hot days
temperatures 2005 (source: BADC 2005).
Notes
* range of temperatures from low emission to high emission TABLE 2 Summarises the extent of the predicted
scenario changes in precipitation for the NI.
% Change in Annual Total
Figure 5 compares the mean monthly precipitation for the Parameter Precipitation
periods 1965-75 and 1995-2005. ‘Wet days’ (daily 2020s 2050s 2080s
precipitation =1mm) range from 150 days - 200. Daily
Mean summer 0 - -2O% 0 - -40% 0 - -60%
rainfalls exceeding 100 mm occur over Co. Down, but
?
falls greater than 125 mm are rare and absent from Mean winter 0 - +15% 0 - +25% 0 - +40%
lowland sites (Met Office 2006). The maximum 24-hour Extreme winter
+100%
precipitation recorded was 158.9 mm at Tollymore precipitation
Forest, County Down in October 1968. Precipitation Notes
amounts of more than 16 mm in 60 minutes have a
* range of precipitation from low emission to high emission
return period of five years, as do 48-hour totals of 50 mm
scenarios
over lowland, 75 mm in the Loughbrickland area (Logue,
1995). The total precipitation in Northern Ireland has not
changed significantly since 1965 (Met Office 2006).
3.3 Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET) and Water twenty first century; however the seasonal nature of
Balance rainfall patterns change is predicted to be significant.
Quantitatively potential evaporation is likely to appreciably
In addition to precipitation the other potentially important increase in the summer and autumn. This in combination
climate variable is potential evapo-transpiration. This is a with summer reductions in rainfall could lead to more
function of net radiation, temperature, humidity and wind persistent soil moisture deficits in Loughbrickland,
speed. Mean annual potential evapo-transpiration is a though the size of maximum deficits are not likely to
relatively conservative value across Northern Ireland, significantly change. Extreme rainfalls will increase
ranging from 339mm in upland areas to 568mm in during winter months. Total rainfall from storm events
eastern coastal areas. Loughbrickland has a PET value might increase by up to 40% by the end of the century
of approximately 500mm annually. In terms of the annual (DETR, 2003). These models are not showing dramatic
potential water balance (precipitation minus PET), increases in rainfall and temperature however they
precipitation greatly exceeds PET in Northern Ireland. In predict greater inter-annual variation, drier summers and
Loughbrickland annual precipitation (900-1000mm) is wetter winters.
approximately double the mean annual potential evapo-
transpiration (500mm) a net excess precipitation of 4. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
500mm available for groundwater recharge. In Northern
Ireland precipitation rate generally exceeds potential SLOPE STABILITY
evapo-transpiration rates throughout the year (Figure 6)
Loughbrickland is in one of the few areas in Northern Recent predictions of climate change as a consequence
Ireland where the potential evapo-transpiration exceeds of increased greenhouse-gas production suggest that
precipitation for more than 3months. Europe will experience a higher frequency of extreme
rainfall events (UKCIP, 2002). This could increase the
Monthly data show that the excess precipitation over PET frequency of occurrence of high pore pressures, and thus
during winter is reversed from late spring onwards the activity of rainfall-triggered landslides (Beniston and
(Figure 7). With PET exceeding precipitation, a soil Douglas 1996). Natural and human influenced events
moisture deficit (SMD) develops to an average July value can contribute to the instability of slopes. Water is
of 50mm generally for Northern Ireland. Soil moisture recognised as being a primary contributor to the
deficit (SMD) is the quantity of water (mm) from rainfall or instability of a slope through the increase of pore water
irrigation needed to return a soil to field capacity i. e. the pressure within soils and rocks. Slopes are only
maximum water holding capacity when free drainage can seriously at risk of failure if there is an incipient slip zone
occur (Kettlewell et al, 2003). Soils normally return to field with a safety factor little more than 1.0.
capacity in September. 120 PET
P
Precipitation/PET (mm)
100
Land over 150m
80
PET<P for all months
20
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Loughbrickland
Month
FIGURE 7 Mean monthly values for precipitation (P) and
potential evapo-transpiration (PET) at Magherally
climatological station in Northern Ireland, for the years
1969-94 (BADC, 2006).
FIGURE 6 Generalised distribution of the mean number of Increased temperature and drier conditions will
months in the year when soil moisture deficit (PET - ?
P) exacerbate shrinkage and cause a zone of highly
develops under Northern Ireland’s present climate desiccated clay, particularly within clay soils. Sudden
regime (source: Betts, 1997). intense storms, or periods of increased rainfall in winter,
allow this desiccated zone to fill with precipitation quickly,
In summary, available climate change guidance and this alone may be enough to trigger shallow failures.
suggests that no part of the Northern Ireland is likely to be Winter rainfall also raises groundwater levels and
dramatically wetter or drier on average by the end of the increases pore pressures within the slope, which
reduces shear strength. The whole wetting and drying acquisition system (DA system) was installed to collect
cycle is a continual process that affects the stability of pore water pressures at frequent intervals.
slopes and may become more crucial as the cycle
becomes more extreme under a changing climate.
Intense rainstorms can lead to a rapid increase in pore
water pressure and trigger ground movements.
The spatial pattern of slope stability problems is likely to 5.2 Pore water pressure response to rainfall
be complex, as different areas in Northern Ireland will
experience variable changes in the magnitude and A monitoring program was carried out to assess pore
frequency of precipitation. Moreover, different types of water pressure response to rainfall events and seasonal
slope will respond either to meteorological changes in changes. During the 6 month record (August 2005 -
the long term (monthly or yearly rainfall) or short term January 2006) of monitoring there is clear evidence of the
(daily or weekly rainfall) (Asch, 1996). Interestingly, the response of the monitored pore water pres sures to
authors note that the design process upon which rainfall (Figure 10 and 11).
infrastructure provision is based is a ‘semi-empirical’
process: i.e. experience is used to inform the process, 5.2.1 General characteristics
with knowledge of failures being incorporated into the
design model to prevent such failures occurring in the The pore pressure responses in the 3 near surface
future. This process, balanced against design criteria peizometers exhibit some general characteristics. Figure
formulated from current projections of likely climate 10 shows the pore water response to rainfall over a
impacts, could help deliver design standards for new period of 6 days. During the six days there was two
road infrastructure which will be better prepared for distinct rainfall periods totalling 8mm (0-24h) and 24mm
expected climate change impacts. (48-96h). The two events recorded a positive change in
pore water pressures. All peizometers were situated in
5. PORE WATER PRESSURE the saturated zone and responses to rainfall were
synchronous and relatively rapid. The rapidity and
RESPONSE TO RAINFALL magnitude of pore water pressure response reduces
with depth. For example, the minimum lag time (between
5.1 Installation of Piezometers
peak rainfall and peak pore water pressure response) at
1.5 m 2.0m and 2,5m depth is 4h, 6h and 8h respectively.
The effects of rainfall on positive pore-water pressures
throughout the slope were studied using peizometers
When the rainfall duration increases, the pore pressure
and rainfall data acquired from the UK Meteorological
tends to respond synchronically at the range of depth,
Office (HMSO, 2006). Figure 2 shows the locations and
both in response times and magnitude. After a period of
the layout of instruments installed in the drumlin. A multi -
rainfall, pore pressure decline is synchronized with
level installation technique was used, locating three
rainfall process. The pore pressure response
vibrating wire peizometers standpipes in the borehole at characteristics are also strongly affected by initial soil
1.5m, 2.0m and 2.5m (Figure 9). The peizometers were
moisture conditions and duration and intensity of rainfall
sealed above and below the piezometer tip with bentonite
event.
to enable rapid measurements of changes in total head
as recommended by Hanna (1985). An automatic data
2.0 40 The 1m unsaturated zone between the phreatic surface
Cummulative rainfall
Rainfall intensity and ground surface remains at a high level of saturation,
1.5 30 and therefore only requires low levels of rainfall to cause
(mm/hr)
(mm)
significant pore water pressure response. For example
1.0 20
the near to surface layer has a water content of
0.5 10 approximately 25% and a porosity of 35% therefore the
change in water content for saturation is 10% of the total
0.0 0 volume. As a result an infiltration of 100 mm would
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 produce 1000 mm of pressure change.
-1000 20 200
-1500
10 100
-2000
-2500 -1.5m 0 0
-2.0m 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Time (days)
-2.5m 0.0
-3000
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