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THE IMPLICATIONS OF PREDICTED CLIMATE CHANGES ON

THE STABILITY OF HIGHWAY GEOTECHNICAL


INFRASTRUCTURE: A CASE STUDY OF FIELD MONITORING OF
PORE WATER RESPONSE

Clarke, G.R.T
School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Email gordon.clarke@qub.ac.uk

Hughes, D. A. B. (Corresponding author)


School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Tel.+44 (0)28 90974014 Email d.hughes@qub.ac.uk

Barbour, S.L.
Department of Civil & Geological Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon.
Email barbour@usask.ca

Sivakumar, V.
School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering, Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
Email v.sivakumar@qub.ac.uk

ABSTRACT The future, long-term, stability of slopes in cuttings and embankments is of increasing concern among
geotechnical engineers in the UK. A study of the motorway earthworks in the UK (Perry, 1999) conservatively
estimates that three times as many slopes are likely to fail than have failed to date if no preventative measures are
taken to account for climate change and progressive failure. Elevated pore-pressures as well as pore-pressure cycling
are both responsible for decreases in soil strength and the stability of slopes (Potts et al 1997). Recent studies in
Northern Ireland have been directed towards investigating the effect of rainfall events on the long term stability of
cuttings on both road and rail infrastructure. Several cuttings in glacial till (Hughes et al. 2001, Clarke et al. 2005) have
been investigated in detail and long-term monitoring of near surface pore pressure changes have been recorded and
correlated with rainfall events. Monitored short-term (hourly) and long-term (annual) fluctuations in pore pressure
response due to climatic forcing have been simulated in order to identify the properties and processes controlling
pore-pressure dynamics within the cutting slopes. The paper presents the field monitoring data of pore pressure
change correlated with rainfall events for the north of Ireland. The effect of rainfall events on stability has been
discussed and the implication of climate change on the geotechnical infrastructure in the UK, such as more intense
winter rainfall events and drier summer weather, have been outlined.

KEYWORDS: climate, slope, stability, glacial tills, drumlins

1. INTRODUCTION
Instability of slopes, both natural and man-made, is an
Infrastructure embankments and cuttings are used to increasing global problem and can cause extensive
afford the passage of transport with a minimal need for damage to transportation infrastructure. Slope
changes in vertical alignment. In the UK, embankments instabilities, and the resulting movement of the landform,
and cuttings (collectively referred to as earthworks or are a common problem in the United Kingdom, and they
earth structures) make up about one third of the total occasionally result in catastrophic failures (Perry, 1989;
asset value for transport infrastructure (Perry, 1989). The Crabb & Atkinson, 1991, The Scottish Executive, 2005).
viability of replacing these assets is poor, and the cost of Increasing frequency of severe weather events
maintaining them is increasing. associated with climate change (Hulme et al, 2002) has

1-4244-0218-2/06/$20.00 ©2006 IEEE.


brought new challenges for highway maintenance This paper presents the results of a preliminary climatic,
including, in some cases, considerable damage to the meteorological and hydrogeological study of a large
highway asset. The predicted increases both in frequency cutting on a program to dual the A1 near Loughbrickland.
and intensity of winter rainfall are likely to increase The paper summaries the predicted changes in climate
significantly the occurrence of slope instability across the within Northern Ireland based on UKCIP climate change
UK (SNIFFER 2002). Those areas historically considered scenarios and presents the field monitoring data of pore
as unstable will be at even greater risk of failure. A study pressure change correlated with rainfall events. The
of the UK’s Motorway earthworks (Perry, 1999; Turner, effect of rainfall events on stability has been discussed
2001) conservatively estimates that three times as many and the implication of climate change on the geotechnical
slopes are likely to fail than have failed to date if no infrastructure in the UK outlined. The research study
preventative measures are taken to take account of recommends that other similar slopes be examined to
climate change and progressive failure. assess the risk of slope instability and, if the risk of
failure is high, preventative cost effective treatment of the
Trunk routes in Northern Ireland are provided and slope should be carried out to improve stability.
maintained by the Roads Service of the Department for
Regional Development (DRD). The complete public road 2. RESEARCH SITE: LOCATION AND
network is approximately 24,800km long, with some
1,200km of trunk roads linking major towns (DRD Road GEOLOGY
Service, 2006). Northern Ireland has a strongly car
dependent population with some 84% of all journeys 2.1 Site Location
being made by motor vehicle (DRD, 2005), underlying the
importance of Northern Ireland’s road infrastructure. The The highway cutting is located on a new dualling works
awareness of the impact of climate change on the on the A1 near Loughbrickland, Co. Down and is part of
infrastructure in Northern Ireland is low and the industry the main Belfast to Dublin Euroroute 1 (Fig. 1).The area of
has adopted, in general, a reactive approach to climate interest lies between Loughbrickland and Newry which is
variability rather than planning a long-term strategy. located in the south west region of Co. Down. The A1 in
this region passes through agricultural land which is
The threats posed by climate change to Northern Ireland underlain by glacial till. Apart from work already carried
infrastructure are many and varied, with significant out on the existing roadway (significant sections have
environmental, social, and economic implications been dualled and are realigned), very little development
(Sniffer, 2002). The recent ‘rainfall induced’ failure of a has occurred along the route.
highway cutting at Dromore (Hughes el al, 2001) has
increased the concern within Northern Ireland over the
stability of infrastructure earthworks throughout the
province. The failure of the road cutting at Dromore
coincided with an exceptional period of prolonged wet Belfast
weather. Recent occurrences of extreme climatic events
in which periods of extreme weather occur in rapid Loughbrickland
succession, have prompted much speculation with
respect to climate change and it’s affect on slope stability.
Euroroute 1
Highway geotechnical infrastructure in the UK commonly
requires a design life of up to 120 years (DMRB, 1995). It
Dublin
is important for the construction industry to recognise that
there will be an expectation among users and the wider
community that current developments will be designed
for climate changes within the lifetime of the
development. The industry needs to understand how to
design projects to deal with future climate change while
facing uncertainty over the possible future climate
conditions. If the risks associated with climate change
are not factored into designs there are likely to be future
implications, such as:

• higher maintenance costs FIGURE 1 - site location: Loughbrickland Euroroute 1:


• costs relating to contractual arrangements with Belfast to Dublin road link
infrastructure not meeting the design life
• indirect costs associated with reputation and
public perception.
2.2 Site Geology
3. NORTHERN IRELAND CLIMATE
This area of Co. Down (as in many other parts of the
region) is proliferated by drumlins which are a common CHANGE
by-product of glaciation (McCabe et al, 1999). The
topography of such regions is characterised by The main hydro-climatic features of slope instability are
undulating surface features – easily recognisable as point rainfall intensities , storm rainfall depths, seasonal
rounded hummocky hills – which are smooth, rockless rainfall depths, rainfall frequency, and evaporative losses.
and generally devoid of marked or abrupt changes in The following text briefly describes the characteristics of
gradient. these in the present climate and how these are projected
The current geological maps and records of the region to change in the future.
show it to be underlain by glacial lodgement till or boulder
clay, as it is more commonly described (GSNI, 2004). To Predicted climate changes for Northern Ireland are
a much lesser extent, interglacial “drift” deposits of sand characterised by warming and a rise in precipitation and
and gravel occur in some localised areas. The glacial potential evapo-transpiration, although seasonal and
sediments are in turn underlain by the bedrock of the annual effects are inconsistent and year-to-year variation
Lower Palaeozoic marine era and are derived from may confound overall trends. Improved models and
sediments of the Silurian age consisting of greywacke estim ates of the spatial and temporal patterns of climate
sandstones, siltstone, mudstone and shales and grits. change will provide more detail of changes. Particular
attention must be directed to the repercussions of inter-
Four boreholes (BH1-4) were drilled to bedrock, a depth annual variability and climate extremes.
of between 19.5m and 25m, during January and February
2004, followed by two subsequent shallow boreholes Possible future climate changes for Northern Ireland
(BH5-6) 3-10m in November 2004 (Figure 2). The drumlin have been estimated, based upon the UKCIP02 climate
consists of reasonably homogenous glacial till underlain scenarios (UKCIP, 2002). Climate changes relate to four
by a highly permeable weathered rock layer (varying in scenarios: Low Emissions, Medium -Low Emissions,
depth from 0.5m-3m) and bedrock. Falling and rising Medium-High Emissions and High Emissions. These
head permeability tests were undertaken in each of the scenarios are used to predict three future thirty-year
ten standpipes. The results indicate that the glacial till periods centred on the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s.
had permeability in the range of 1x10-9m/s - 1x10-8m/s , The 2020s are considered to be representative of the
typical range for glacial tills in the UK (Trenter, N.A., period 2010-2039, the 2050s of 2040-2069 and the
1999). Clarke et al, 2005 describes in more detail the soil 2080s of 2070-2099. Changes during each of these
properties and site geology. periods are calculated as the change in th e thirty-year
mean climate with respect to the 1961-90 average.

The research site at Loughbrickland is in close proximity


N to a meteorological station at Magherally (a
Lough Brickland meteorological station located 8km north -east of
Loughbrickland). The weather data from this station was
Existing road used in this project and was assumed to be an accurate
reflection of the weather received at Loughbrickland
research site.
New Road
3.1 Temperature
BH3 BH4
BH2 Northern Ireland’s dominantl y oceanic climate regime
BH1 means that temperature extremes are rare, mean annual
temperatures range from 8.5 OC to 9.5 OC. Mean air
0 50m
temperature fluctuates within narrow limits (0-20OC), with
a 10% probability of a departure more than 0.5 OC from
New Road Alignment BH2/5 BH1 BH6 the 1961-1990 mean. Figure 3 shows the monthly mean
BH3/4 values for daily minimum and maxi mum temperatures at
Magherally, for the years 1961-90. The climate of
Existing road Northern Ireland is greatly influenced by its mid-latitude
oceanic position on a westernside of a landmass (Betts,
0 50m 100m 1997) and therefore minimal changes in temperature as
a result of climate change are predicted (Table 1).

FIGURE 2 Topography map showing the plan cross-


section of boreholes and the location of the highway
cutting.
20
However greater variation in seasonal total rainfall is
18 being recorded (Met Office 2006) and predicted (UKCIP,
16 2002) (Figure 5 & Table 2).
Temperature ( C)

14
o

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month
Mean Minimum Daily Mean Maximum Daily

Loughbrickland
FIGURE 3: monthly mean values for daily minimum and
maximum temperatures at Magherally (Latitude 54.36O N
O
Longitude -6.195 W Elevation 97.0mAOD), for the years
1961-90 (source: BADC 2005).

3.2 Precipitation
FIGURE 4 Mean annual rainfall for Northern Ireland, for the
Northern Ireland has a general west-east trend of years 1961-90 (Betts, 1999)
decreasing precipitation which is complicated by
topography. Highest areas of upland receive annual
precipitation in excess of 1600 mm, and the driest areas 200
are surrounding Lough Neagh with annual totals less 180 1995-2005
than 750 mm (Figure 4). Annual total precipitation for 160 1965-1975
Precepitation (mm)

Loughbrickland ranges from 900-1000mm. Seasonal 140


variation of precipitation in Northern Ireland is not large, 120
but the wettest months are between August and January. 100
80
TABLE 1 Summarises the extent of the predicted
60
changes in temperature for N. Ireland (UKCIP, 2002).
40
20
Temperature change OC 0
Parameter
2020s 2050s 2080s J F M A M J J A S O N D

Summer mean +0.5 - +2.0 +1.0 - +4.0 +1.5 - +5.0 Month

Winter mean -0.5 - +1.0 +1.0 - +2.5 +1.5 - +4.0 FIGURE 5 Mean monthly values for precipitation at
O
Extreme Magherally (Latitude 54.36 N Longitude -6.195O W
Approx. 10-fold increase in number of
summer Elevation 97.0mAOD), for the years 1965-75 and 1995-
hot days
temperatures 2005 (source: BADC 2005).
Notes
* range of temperatures from low emission to high emission TABLE 2 Summarises the extent of the predicted
scenario changes in precipitation for the NI.
% Change in Annual Total
Figure 5 compares the mean monthly precipitation for the Parameter Precipitation
periods 1965-75 and 1995-2005. ‘Wet days’ (daily 2020s 2050s 2080s
precipitation =1mm) range from 150 days - 200. Daily
Mean summer 0 - -2O% 0 - -40% 0 - -60%
rainfalls exceeding 100 mm occur over Co. Down, but
?
falls greater than 125 mm are rare and absent from Mean winter 0 - +15% 0 - +25% 0 - +40%
lowland sites (Met Office 2006). The maximum 24-hour Extreme winter
+100%
precipitation recorded was 158.9 mm at Tollymore precipitation
Forest, County Down in October 1968. Precipitation Notes
amounts of more than 16 mm in 60 minutes have a
* range of precipitation from low emission to high emission
return period of five years, as do 48-hour totals of 50 mm
scenarios
over lowland, 75 mm in the Loughbrickland area (Logue,
1995). The total precipitation in Northern Ireland has not
changed significantly since 1965 (Met Office 2006).
3.3 Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET) and Water twenty first century; however the seasonal nature of
Balance rainfall patterns change is predicted to be significant.
Quantitatively potential evaporation is likely to appreciably
In addition to precipitation the other potentially important increase in the summer and autumn. This in combination
climate variable is potential evapo-transpiration. This is a with summer reductions in rainfall could lead to more
function of net radiation, temperature, humidity and wind persistent soil moisture deficits in Loughbrickland,
speed. Mean annual potential evapo-transpiration is a though the size of maximum deficits are not likely to
relatively conservative value across Northern Ireland, significantly change. Extreme rainfalls will increase
ranging from 339mm in upland areas to 568mm in during winter months. Total rainfall from storm events
eastern coastal areas. Loughbrickland has a PET value might increase by up to 40% by the end of the century
of approximately 500mm annually. In terms of the annual (DETR, 2003). These models are not showing dramatic
potential water balance (precipitation minus PET), increases in rainfall and temperature however they
precipitation greatly exceeds PET in Northern Ireland. In predict greater inter-annual variation, drier summers and
Loughbrickland annual precipitation (900-1000mm) is wetter winters.
approximately double the mean annual potential evapo-
transpiration (500mm) a net excess precipitation of 4. EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
500mm available for groundwater recharge. In Northern
Ireland precipitation rate generally exceeds potential SLOPE STABILITY
evapo-transpiration rates throughout the year (Figure 6)
Loughbrickland is in one of the few areas in Northern Recent predictions of climate change as a consequence
Ireland where the potential evapo-transpiration exceeds of increased greenhouse-gas production suggest that
precipitation for more than 3months. Europe will experience a higher frequency of extreme
rainfall events (UKCIP, 2002). This could increase the
Monthly data show that the excess precipitation over PET frequency of occurrence of high pore pressures, and thus
during winter is reversed from late spring onwards the activity of rainfall-triggered landslides (Beniston and
(Figure 7). With PET exceeding precipitation, a soil Douglas 1996). Natural and human influenced events
moisture deficit (SMD) develops to an average July value can contribute to the instability of slopes. Water is
of 50mm generally for Northern Ireland. Soil moisture recognised as being a primary contributor to the
deficit (SMD) is the quantity of water (mm) from rainfall or instability of a slope through the increase of pore water
irrigation needed to return a soil to field capacity i. e. the pressure within soils and rocks. Slopes are only
maximum water holding capacity when free drainage can seriously at risk of failure if there is an incipient slip zone
occur (Kettlewell et al, 2003). Soils normally return to field with a safety factor little more than 1.0.
capacity in September. 120 PET
P
Precipitation/PET (mm)

100
Land over 150m

80
PET<P for all months

PET>P for more 60


than 3months
40

20

0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Loughbrickland
Month
FIGURE 7 Mean monthly values for precipitation (P) and
potential evapo-transpiration (PET) at Magherally
climatological station in Northern Ireland, for the years
1969-94 (BADC, 2006).

FIGURE 6 Generalised distribution of the mean number of Increased temperature and drier conditions will
months in the year when soil moisture deficit (PET - ?
P) exacerbate shrinkage and cause a zone of highly
develops under Northern Ireland’s present climate desiccated clay, particularly within clay soils. Sudden
regime (source: Betts, 1997). intense storms, or periods of increased rainfall in winter,
allow this desiccated zone to fill with precipitation quickly,
In summary, available climate change guidance and this alone may be enough to trigger shallow failures.
suggests that no part of the Northern Ireland is likely to be Winter rainfall also raises groundwater levels and
dramatically wetter or drier on average by the end of the increases pore pressures within the slope, which
reduces shear strength. The whole wetting and drying acquisition system (DA system) was installed to collect
cycle is a continual process that affects the stability of pore water pressures at frequent intervals.
slopes and may become more crucial as the cycle
becomes more extreme under a changing climate.
Intense rainstorms can lead to a rapid increase in pore
water pressure and trigger ground movements.

Slopes engineered to modern standards with adequate Bentonite


safety factors are unlikely to become unstable as a result
Grout
of changes to the climate. Natural landslips that may
-1.5m
affect development need careful investigation and may
require remedial action against failure. Climate change Bentonite
considerations affecting slope stability include the vibrating wire
piezometer
following: Grout
-2.0m
• the total annual volume of rainfall is not expected to
change significantly, but the UK can expect by 2020s Bentonite
that winter rainfall will increase with a corresponding
decrease in summer rainfall Grout
• both mean summer and winter temperatures are -2.5m
expected to increase, although the increase in
summer temperature is predicted to be higher than FIGURE 9 Cross-section of multi-level piezometer
that for winter. installation for near surface pore water pressure
• Increase of extreme weather events monitoring (BH 6)

The spatial pattern of slope stability problems is likely to 5.2 Pore water pressure response to rainfall
be complex, as different areas in Northern Ireland will
experience variable changes in the magnitude and A monitoring program was carried out to assess pore
frequency of precipitation. Moreover, different types of water pressure response to rainfall events and seasonal
slope will respond either to meteorological changes in changes. During the 6 month record (August 2005 -
the long term (monthly or yearly rainfall) or short term January 2006) of monitoring there is clear evidence of the
(daily or weekly rainfall) (Asch, 1996). Interestingly, the response of the monitored pore water pres sures to
authors note that the design process upon which rainfall (Figure 10 and 11).
infrastructure provision is based is a ‘semi-empirical’
process: i.e. experience is used to inform the process, 5.2.1 General characteristics
with knowledge of failures being incorporated into the
design model to prevent such failures occurring in the The pore pressure responses in the 3 near surface
future. This process, balanced against design criteria peizometers exhibit some general characteristics. Figure
formulated from current projections of likely climate 10 shows the pore water response to rainfall over a
impacts, could help deliver design standards for new period of 6 days. During the six days there was two
road infrastructure which will be better prepared for distinct rainfall periods totalling 8mm (0-24h) and 24mm
expected climate change impacts. (48-96h). The two events recorded a positive change in
pore water pressures. All peizometers were situated in
5. PORE WATER PRESSURE the saturated zone and responses to rainfall were
synchronous and relatively rapid. The rapidity and
RESPONSE TO RAINFALL magnitude of pore water pressure response reduces
with depth. For example, the minimum lag time (between
5.1 Installation of Piezometers
peak rainfall and peak pore water pressure response) at
1.5 m 2.0m and 2,5m depth is 4h, 6h and 8h respectively.
The effects of rainfall on positive pore-water pressures
throughout the slope were studied using peizometers
When the rainfall duration increases, the pore pressure
and rainfall data acquired from the UK Meteorological
tends to respond synchronically at the range of depth,
Office (HMSO, 2006). Figure 2 shows the locations and
both in response times and magnitude. After a period of
the layout of instruments installed in the drumlin. A multi -
rainfall, pore pressure decline is synchronized with
level installation technique was used, locating three
rainfall process. The pore pressure response
vibrating wire peizometers standpipes in the borehole at characteristics are also strongly affected by initial soil
1.5m, 2.0m and 2.5m (Figure 9). The peizometers were
moisture conditions and duration and intensity of rainfall
sealed above and below the piezometer tip with bentonite
event.
to enable rapid measurements of changes in total head
as recommended by Hanna (1985). An automatic data
2.0 40 The 1m unsaturated zone between the phreatic surface

Cummulative rainfall
Rainfall intensity and ground surface remains at a high level of saturation,
1.5 30 and therefore only requires low levels of rainfall to cause
(mm/hr)

(mm)
significant pore water pressure response. For example
1.0 20
the near to surface layer has a water content of
0.5 10 approximately 25% and a porosity of 35% therefore the
change in water content for saturation is 10% of the total
0.0 0 volume. As a result an infiltration of 100 mm would
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 produce 1000 mm of pressure change.

Time (hrs) 40 400


0
Cum. Rainfall
Hourly Rainfall

Cummulative Rainfall (mm)


Relative Pressure head (mm)

Hourly Rainfall (mm)


-500
30 300

-1000 20 200

-1500
10 100
-2000

-2500 -1.5m 0 0
-2.0m 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 Time (days)
-2.5m 0.0
-3000

Relative head (m)


A B
-1.0
FIGURE 10 Pore water pressure response to single
rainfall events in the near surface peizometers (at depths:
1.5m, 2.0m, and 2.5m below ground surface). -2.0

5.2.2 Effect of antecedent rainfall -3.0


-1.5m -2.0m -2.5m
Antecedent rainfall is one of the crucial factors in
determining the initial soil moisture conditions and FIGURE 11 Pore water pressure response to periods of
subsequently the pore water response to rainfall. Figure rainfall in the near surface peizometers (at depths: -1.5m,
11 shows the pore water pressure response to periods -2.0m, and -2.5m below ground surface).
of rainfall in the near surface peizometers for the six
month period. Table 3 summaries the initial response of TABLE 3 Summarises the magnitude and rapidity pore
pore water pressure to the two periods of rainfall. During water pressure response to two periods of rainfall.
Period A (Day 0-25) there was 110.2mm of rainfall
(including a 34mm single rainfall event) however the pore
Pore Water Pressure
water pressure response to this period of rainfall was Total
Rainfall response /mm (time lag*
moderate (increase of between 43 and 91mm). There Precipitatio
Period /hrs)
n
was also a significant time lag of between 8-13hours -1.5m -2.0m -2.5m
time lag increasing with depth. In contrast Period B (Day 91 72 43
65-90) a total of 148mm of rainfall was recorded and this A 110.2
(8:40) (10:40) (13:00)
showed a significantly greater pore water pressure 960 914 781
B 148.2
response to rainfall (approximately 781-960mm (4:00) (5:40) (6:20)
increase). There was also a reduced time lag of between * Time lag – time difference between peak rainfall and peak
4-7hours time lag increasing with depth. These two pore water pressure response
periods had similar total precipitation however the
magnitude and rapidity of pore water pressure response 6. DISCUSSION
was quite different. There was low antecedent rainfall
prior to period A that may have resulted in a high soil Northern Ireland’s extremely oceanic climate regime
moisture deficit. Subsequently the magnitude and the means that temperature, precipitation and subsequently
rapidity of pore water response could have been reduced. potential evapo-transpiration rarely reach extremes. The
In contrast the magnitude and rapidity of pore water weather changes that have been predicted through
response was much greater for the period B. The UKCIP’s climate change scenarios (2010-2099) show
occurrence of pronounced groundwater peaks rapidly the influence caused by the ‘greenhouse’ effect.
following precipitation events is greatly dependent on the Predicted climate changes for Northern Ireland are
initial groundwater conditions. characterised by warming, rise in precipitation and
potential evapo-transpiration. The annual rises are not
dramatic however particular attention must be directed to cost of repairs to the slope failures constitutes a
the impact of inter-annual variability and seasonal effects significant amount of maintenance expenditure. The
that are inconsistent from year-to-year. UKCIP are maintenance component of the whole life cost may be up
forecasting greater seasonal changes, wetter winters to 3.7 times the capital cost for construction with a high
and drier summers. rate of slope failure (Reid & Clarke, 2000).

The predicted variation in climate is unlikely to prove


significant in terms of an instantaneous increase in
major slope failures within Northern Ireland. The
Loughbrickland cutting is unlikely to catastrophically fail
(Factor of Safety > 1.5) from single rainfall events or
periods of sustained rainfall. This is due to Northern
Ireland’s climate providing net infiltration year on year and
establishing a soil/water equilibrium . The phreatic
surface typically varies between ground surface and a
depth of 1-2m, these small changes do not significantly
affect slope stability. However the variable nature of
Northern Ireland’s precipitation could prove a major
contributing factor to progressive or delayed failure of cut
slopes (Potts, 1997). Long-term cyclic loading is
postulated to be the main contributing factors to FIGURE 12 substantial shallow slope failures and
progressive failures. The roll of the hydraulic surface granular replacement remediation.
boundary condition, which is controlled by climate, is
important in controlling collapse (Kovacevic et al, 2001).
The daily and seasonal precipitation variability
contributes to the transient nature of pore water pressure
fluctuations. The whole wetting and drying cycle is a
continual process that affects the stability of slopes and
may become more crucial as the cycle becomes more
extreme under a changing climate. This transient
phenomenon may have a potentially significant effect on
the geo-mechanical behaviour of the slope.

The pore water pressure monitoring observed has


shown that antecedent rainfall has a huge influence on
the pore water pressure response to rainfall. Two similar
precipitation (Period A: 100.2mm, Period B: 148.2mm)
periods produced dramatically different pore water FIGURE 13 Remediation work to slope – granular fill
responses (Period A: 43-91mm, Period B: 781-960mm). replacement.
The main reason for a large response in Period B is the
degree of saturation e.g. if average water content was The data collected in the first six months of the research
0.2 and porosity was 0.3 then change in water content for consistently confirmed that pore water pressure
saturation is 0.1, therefore an infiltration of 100 m m would response in the study area is a transient process. Initial
produce 1000 mm of pore water pressure change. In monitoring of pore water pressure reading near surface
contrast Period A followed a dry period and the degree of shows a rapid and synchronise response to rainfall.
saturation would be low. Therefore the same precipitation
had a relatively minimal effect on pore water pressure. The data shows distinctive hydrographs emerging
following periods of significant rainfall both in the near
The risk of major failures is low in the short-term surface monitoring. The initial data has also confirmed
(following excavation); however it would be prudent to that initial soil moisture conditions are a major factor in
expect an increase in superficial shallow slip failures. the magnitude and rapidity of response. Research by
Shallow failures have been observed on the cut slopes at Ridley et al (2004), verified that there is a good correlation
Loughbrickland soon after excavation (Figure 12 and 13). between the shallow pore water pressures (and hence
These are likely to be the most common cause of failure the zero pressure line) in earth structures and variations
throughout the service life of the cutting. The problem of of the soil moisture deficit (SMD). The glacial till within the
minor slope instabilities on the motorway and trunk road slope has a low hydraulic conductivity (even when
network has been described by Symons (1970) and Perry saturated), it does not desaturate until a high soil suction
(1989). The problems are mainly confined to is reached and the reduction in degree of saturation
overconsolidated clays and particularly high sections of through drying is gradual (Ridley, 2003). Thus clayey
cuttings similar to Loughbrickland. However the ongoing soils do not readily absorb surface water, they require
prolonged periods of rainfall to wet up, and the zone of
moisture deficit can extend to great depth. This may subsequent public safety and financial implications of
explain the reduced impact of pore water pressure slope failures, there are still many failures caused by
response and extended time lag (peak rainfall – peak changes in hydrogeology that still remain unanswered.
pore water pressure response) that was observed
following dry periods. Conversely there was greater Assessing the condition of old cuttings is a vital exercise
rapidity and magnitude of pore water pressure response in maintaining the integrity of transport infrastructure in
following a wet period. the UK. Climate change is expected to bring wetter
winters to the UK and more ‘extreme’ weather patterns in
The understanding of the long-term effect of cyclical which both summer and winter rainfall will arrive in short
loading and slope hydrogeology can only be achieved by heavy storm events that are more likely to trigger slope
combining long-term monitoring with numerical failures. It would be prudent therefore for Road Authorities
modelling of transient, saturated and unsaturated flow. to arrange regular monitoring of pore water pressures in
However in light of the preliminary work that has been particular through prolonged wet and long dry periods
undertaken a good correlation has been observed
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