SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8841391259
R Square 0.7817019939
Adjusted R Square 0.7271274924
Standard Error 190.5240756386
Observations 31

ANOVA
df SS MS
Regression 6 3119625.19328846 519937.532214743
Residual 24 871186.161550251 36299.4233979271
Total 30 3990811.35483871

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

Intercept 3154.7002851581 462.6530922373 6.8187165245
Q1 156.8330910214 98.8711070289 1.5862378377
Q2 379.7835116223 96.0892151369 3.9524051797
Q3 203.035501032 95.4089186416 2.1280557827
LagGNP 0.1741569057 0.05842 2.9811178652
LagUnemp -93.8323321358 28.3232871591 -3.3129040287
LagInt -73.9167146982 17.7885157306 -4.1553053564

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals

1 2728.588616368 181.411383632
2 2587.8486058679 -25.8486058679
3 2336.0345632433 48.9654367567
4 2339.328280718 180.671719282
5 2447.2663429223 -305.2663429223
6 2400.1189768659 -270.1189768659
7 2199.7408001058 -9.7408001058
8 2076.3832659477 293.6167340523
9 2276.9474218901 -68.9474218901
10 2026.1856211269 169.8143788731
11 1848.7311911871 -90.7311911871
12 2138.3943352201 -194.3943352201
13 2212.2984563336 -118.2984563336
14 2014.2165964174 -103.2165964174
15 1969.3943315904 61.6056684096
16 2166.6405442795 -120.6405442795
17 2440.6323005972 61.3676994029
18 2290.3524027221 -52.3524027221
19 2131.3869785803 262.6130214197
20 2433.6811729017 152.3188270983
21 2739.0945167248 158.9054832752
22 2586.8776531936 -138.8776531936
23 2362.0354456073 97.9645543927
24 2667.9944088465 -21.9944088465
25 2937.6013774274 50.3986225726
26 2838.1748925683 128.8251074317
27 2713.0792178096 -274.0792178095
28 2887.5779920866 -289.5779920866
29 3004.5709677368 40.4290322632
30 2921.2252512379 291.7747487621
31 2781.5974718761 -96.5974718761
 F Significance F
14.3235755156 6.79746051674647E-07

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%

4.72139790761074E-07 2199.8314300867 4109.5691402295 2199.8314300867
0.1257745212 -47.2268025629 360.8929846057 -47.2268025629
0.0005941965 181.465159531 578.1018637137 181.465159531
0.0438006252 6.1212116099 399.9497904542 6.1212116099
0.0064902009 0.0535839765 0.2947298348 0.0535839765
0.0029184874 -152.2887117325 -35.3759525391 -152.2887117325
0.0003556221 -110.6303991717 -37.2030302246 -110.6303991717
Upper 95.0%
4109.5691402295
360.8929846057
578.1018637137
399.9497904542
0.2947298348
-35.3759525391
-37.2030302246
 Data

A B C D E F G H I J K L
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Historical data
10 Year Quarter Sales GNP Unemp Int Q1 Q2 Q3 LagGNP LagUnemp LagInt
11 79 1 Sales 2541 5.9 9.4 Q1 Q2 Q3 LagGNP LagUnemp LagInt
12 79 2 2910 2640 5.7 9.4 0 1 0 2541 5.9 9.4
13 79 3 2562 2595 5.9 9.7 0 0 1 2640 5.7 9.4
14 79 4 2385 2701 6 11.9 0 0 0 2595 5.9 9.7
15 80 1 2520 2785 6.2 13.4 1 0 0 2701 6 11.9
16 80 2 2142 2509 7.3 9.6 0 1 0 2785 6.2 13.4
17 80 3 2130 2570 7.7 9.2 0 0 1 2509 7.3 9.6
18 80 4 2190 2667 7.4 13.6 0 0 0 2570 7.7 9.2
19 81 1 2370 2878 7.4 14.4 1 0 0 2667 7.4 13.6
20 81 2 2208 2835 7.4 15.3 0 1 0 2878 7.4 14.4
21 81 3 2196 2897 7.4 15.1 0 0 1 2835 7.4 15.3
22 81 4 1758 2744 8.3 11.8 0 0 0 2897 7.4 15.1
23 82 1 1944 2582 8.8 12.8 1 0 0 2744 8.3 11.8
24 82 2 2094 2613 9.4 12.4 0 1 0 2582 8.8 12.8
25 82 3 1911 2529 10 9.3 0 0 1 2613 9.4 12.4
26 82 4 2031 2544 10.7 7.9 0 0 0 2529 10 9.3
27 83 1 2046 2633 10.4 7.8 1 0 0 2544 10.7 7.9
28 83 2 2502 2878 10.1 8.4 0 1 0 2633 10.4 7.8
29 83 3 2238 3051 9.4 9.1 0 0 1 2878 10.1 8.4
30 83 4 2394 3274 8.5 8.8 0 0 0 3051 9.4 9.1
31 84 1 2586 3594 7.9 9.2 1 0 0 3274 8.5 8.8
32 84 2 2898 3774 7.5 9.8 0 1 0 3594 7.9 9.2
33 84 3 2448 3861 7.5 10.3 0 0 1 3774 7.5 9.8
34 84 4 2460 3919 7.2 8.8 0 0 0 3861 7.5 10.3
35 85 1 2646 4040 7.4 8.2 1 0 0 3919 7.2 8.8
36 85 2 2988 4133 7.3 7.5 0 1 0 4040 7.4 8.2
37 85 3 2967 4303 7.1 7.1 0 0 1 4133 7.3 7.5
38 85 4 2439 4393 7 7.2 0 0 0 4303 7.1 7.1
39 86 1 2598 4560 7.1 8.9 1 0 0 4393 7 7.2
40 86 2 3045 4587 7.1 7.7 0 1 0 4560 7.1 8.9
41 86 3 3213 4716 6.9 7.4 0 0 1 4587 7.1 7.7
42 86 4 2685 4796 6.8 7.4 0 0 0 4716 6.9 7.4

Page 5
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.883835
R Square 0.781165
Adjusted R 0.724078
Standard E189.0985
Observatio 30

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regressio 6 2935827 489304.5 13.68368 1.39E-06
Residual 23 822439.8 35758.25
Total 29 3758267

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
Intercept 3025.213 522.1507 5.793755
1 188.2169 102.7599 1.831618
0 46.22433 97.97328 0.471806
0 -156.31 98.13235 -1.59285
2541 0.20391 0.063336 3.219518
5.9 -79.0781 30.82101 -2.56572
9.4 -66.3523 18.80659 -3.52814
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
6.66E-06 1945.062 4105.364 1945.062 4105.364
0.079992 -24.3582 400.7919 -24.3582 400.7919
0.641511 -156.449 248.8975 -156.449 248.8975
0.124845 -359.312 46.69201 -359.312 46.69201
0.003797 0.072891 0.33493 0.072891 0.33493
0.017284 -142.836 -15.32 -142.836 -15.32
0.0018 -105.257 -27.4479 -105.257 -27.4479

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation
Predicted 2910
Residuals
1 2535.304 26.69622
2 2287.872 97.12806
3 2311.914 208.0862
4 2401.915 -259.915
5 2368.796 -238.796
6 2173.61 16.39027
7 2081.472 288.5275
8 2259.633 -51.6326
9 2049.155 146.8452
10 1872.533 -114.533
11 2145.437 -201.437
12 2194.729 -100.729
13 2038.152 -127.152
14 1976.734 54.26551
15 2173.642 -127.642
16 2410.365 91.63452
17 2302.243 -64.2431
18 2143.893 250.1069
19 2436.751 149.2487
20 2711.125 186.8745
21 2597.657 -149.657
22 2379.686 80.31384
23 2671.075 -25.0751
24 2907.961 80.03911
25 2839.286 127.7135
26 2713.773 -274.773
27 2889.708 -291.708
28 2991.271 53.72887
29 2934.407 278.593
30 2793.898 -108.898
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.8841391259
R Square 0.7817019939
Adjusted R Square 0.7271274924
Standard Error 190.5240756386
Observations 31

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 6 3119625.19329 519937.53221 14.323575516 6.7974605E-07
Residual 24 871186.16155 36299.423398
Total 30 3990811.35484

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 3311.533376179 464.457653865 7.1298930024 2.274849E-07 2352.93989243
Q2 222.9504206009 99.1011657691 2.249725509 0.033908328 18.4156671144
Q3 46.2024100106 98.7118670471 0.4680532482 0.6439692642 -157.5288704
Q4 -156.8330910214 98.8711070289 -1.5862378377 0.1257745212 -360.8930266
LagGNP 0.1741569057 0.05842 2.9811178652 0.0064902009 0.0535839517
LagUnemp -93.8323321358 28.3232871591 -3.3129040287 0.0029184874 -152.28872376
LagInt -73.9167146982 17.7885157306 -4.1553053564 0.0003556221 -110.63040673

RESIDUAL OUTPUT Sales=3311+223*Q2+46*Q3-156*Q4+0.17*LagGNP-93*LagUnemp-73*LagInt

Observation Predicted Sales Residuals Q1 0

1 2728.588616368 181.411383632 Q2 223
2 2587.848605868 -25.8486058679 Q3 46
3 2336.034563243 48.9654367567 Q4 -156
4 2339.328280718 180.671719282
5 2447.266342922 -305.266342922
6 2400.118976866 -270.118976866
7 2199.740800106 -9.7408001058
8 2076.383265948 293.616734052
9 2276.94742189 -68.9474218901
10 2026.185621127 169.814378873
11 1848.731191187 -90.7311911871
12 2138.39433522 -194.39433522
13 2212.298456334 -118.298456334
14 2014.216596417 -103.216596417
15 1969.39433159 61.6056684096
16 2166.640544279 -120.640544279
17 2440.632300597 61.3676994029
18 2290.352402722 -52.3524027221
19 2131.38697858 262.61302142
20 2433.681172902 152.318827098
21 2739.094516725 158.905483275
22 2586.877653194 -138.877653194
23 2362.035445607 97.9645543927
24 2667.994408847 -21.9944088465
25 2937.601377427 50.3986225726
26 2838.174892568 128.825107432
27 2713.07921781 -274.07921781
28 2887.577992087 -289.577992087
29 3004.570967737 40.4290322632
30 2921.225251238 291.774748762
31 2781.597471876 -96.5974718761
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
4270.1268599 2352.9398924 4270.1268599
427.48517409 18.415667114 427.48517409
249.93369042 -157.5288704 249.93369042
47.226844562 -360.8930266 47.226844562
0.2947298597 0.0535839517 0.2947298597
-35.37594051 -152.2887238 -35.37594051
-37.20302267 -110.6304067 -37.20302267

93*LagUnemp-73*LagInt
Year Quarter Sales GNP Unemp Int
79 1 Sales 2541 5.9 9.4 Q2 Q3 Q4
79 2 2910 2640 5.7 9.4 1 0 0
79 3 2562 2595 5.9 9.7 0 1 0
79 4 2385 2701 6 11.9 0 0 1
80 1 2520 2785 6.2 13.4 0 0 0
80 2 2142 2509 7.3 9.6 1 0 0
80 3 2130 2570 7.7 9.2 0 1 0
80 4 2190 2667 7.4 13.6 0 0 1
81 1 2370 2878 7.4 14.4 0 0 0
81 2 2208 2835 7.4 15.3 1 0 0
81 3 2196 2897 7.4 15.1 0 1 0
81 4 1758 2744 8.3 11.8 0 0 1
82 1 1944 2582 8.8 12.8 0 0 0
82 2 2094 2613 9.4 12.4 1 0 0
82 3 1911 2529 10 9.3 0 1 0
82 4 2031 2544 10.7 7.9 0 0 1
83 1 2046 2633 10.4 7.8 0 0 0
83 2 2502 2878 10.1 8.4 1 0 0
83 3 2238 3051 9.4 9.1 0 1 0
83 4 2394 3274 8.5 8.8 0 0 1
84 1 2586 3594 7.9 9.2 0 0 0
84 2 2898 3774 7.5 9.8 1 0 0
84 3 2448 3861 7.5 10.3 0 1 0
84 4 2460 3919 7.2 8.8 0 0 1
85 1 2646 4040 7.4 8.2 0 0 0
85 2 2988 4133 7.3 7.5 1 0 0
85 3 2967 4303 7.1 7.1 0 1 0
85 4 2439 4393 7 7.2 0 0 1
86 1 2598 4560 7.1 8.9 0 0 0
86 2 3045 4587 7.1 7.7 1 0 0
86 3 3213 4716 6.9 7.4 0 1 0
86 4 2685 4796 6.8 7.4 0 0 1
LagGNP LagUnemp LagInt
2541 5.9 9.4
2640 5.7 9.4
2595 5.9 9.7
2701 6 11.9
2785 6.2 13.4
2509 7.3 9.6
2570 7.7 9.2
2667 7.4 13.6
2878 7.4 14.4
2835 7.4 15.3
2897 7.4 15.1
2744 8.3 11.8
2582 8.8 12.8
2613 9.4 12.4
2529 10 9.3
2544 10.7 7.9
2633 10.4 7.8
2878 10.1 8.4
3051 9.4 9.1
3274 8.5 8.8
3594 7.9 9.2
3774 7.5 9.8
3861 7.5 10.3
3919 7.2 8.8
4040 7.4 8.2
4133 7.3 7.5
4303 7.1 7.1
4393 7 7.2
4560 7.1 8.9
4587 7.1 7.7
4716 6.9 7.4