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Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes*, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira †

*

Universidade Federal do Ceará (UFC)

Av. Humberto Monte, s/n, Bloco 713, 60020-181, Fortaleza, Brasil

e-mail: hiago_eng@hotmail.com, webpage: www.deha.ufc.br

of dams, and it is an important tool to anticipate the diagnosis of accidents due to f aults

in the field of geotechnical engineering of dams. The use of probability functions to

represent the faults is an alternative way to establish the risk quantification. This paper

presents a methodology to the quantification of risk in dams as using the reliability

applied to the Weibull distribution. Dams classified as in high risk due to severe

anomalies presented in inspections are chosen as case study to validate the results

presented by the probability analysis. In the three cases of Premuoca, Forquilha and

Acaraú-Mirim, the method is adequated to the anomalies assessed.

1 INTRODUCTION

In geotechnical field there is a possibility of faults and, therefore a proper

classification methodology is needed to use as an alarm tool option or as a decision

making tool, according to existing anomalies identified and their degrees. In this way,

this paper presents a Risk Assessment (RA) process developed from the concept of risk

and its constitutive elements.

Dams always imply an effective risk of failure, especially when downstream there are

people living, important properties or environmental values. So, appropriate measures

should be adopted, concerning the design, construction and operation of dams, to ensure

that the associated residual risk is kept very low, throughout the lifetime of the works

(AFONSO et al., 2015 8).

Since October 2010, the dams in Brazil has a regulatory protocol granted by the

National Information Systems on Dam Safety (NISDM) introduced by the Law 12,334

(BRASIL, 20101), which impacted directly the companies acting on water supply, energy,

environment quality and education sectors. The NISDM institute the regular inspection as

the starting of the safety protocol, and the remediation intervention, according to the

anomalies identified, as the final stage. The interventions are defined according to the

risk associated to the structural safety and its quantification is very important to support

the decision-making process.

The 12,334/2010 Law and its Regulation 143/2012(R143) 2 introduces a qualitative

classification method, and it restricts the complete diagnosis of RA. In a group of dams

†

Universidade Estadual Vale do Acaraú (UVA)

1

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

with same quality label it is not possible to fix a range of intervention respecting the

restrictions of the owner budget. Therefore, it is necessary a complementary quantitative

risk assessment (QRA).

A reliable QRA depends on anomalies data with the respective fault probability.

According to Caldeira (2008) 9, instead of one more traditional approach of the safety, the

QRA might be an additional tool of assessment, available to transform the decision

making into a rational and objective process, meaning a method for continue assessment

using periodically updated anomalies data and respective probabilities.

Usually accidents with dams are due to some type of anomalies, which were not

properly detected and/or diagnosed. The most frequent anomaly detected in embankment

dam is the internal erosion raised for a piping, followed by slope deformations

(MENESCAL et al., 2001) 11.

This paper is focused in piping and slope deformation anomalies, the probability of

these events occur in a dam in operation and a proper statistical distribution to define a

QRA, that was defined as the Weibull distribution, after some research among the several

statistics models present in the concerning literature. This definition is supported by the

validation of the developed methodology applied to three case studies.

2 CASE STUDIES

The validation of the QRA purposed, using the Weibull distribution, was made with

three selected cases, according to their location in the region next to the University: the

Premuoca, Forquilha and Acaraú-Mirim dams, where the first one is at the Coreaú

watershed and the last ones at the Acaraú watershed, both belonging to the hydrological

system in the northwest of Ceará state (Brazil), as illustrated in the Figure 1. The Table 1

presents some characteristics of the dams. Figures 2 to 4 present some anomalies

detected in those dams.

Figure 1: Location of the three study cases, Ceará state, Brazil. (Malveira et al., 2014)13.

Dam Height (m) Soil

Storage (hm³) Extension (m) (years)

Premuoca 15,4 5,2 700 35 SM

Forquilha 26,3 51,2 300 95 SC

Acaraú-Mirim 20,0 52,0 360 109 SC

2

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

The first step of a risk quantification process is to define a risk function according to the

behavior of the real case in assessment and through stochastic data. This paper is about an

approaching of general probability distribution function with the concept of reliability, which

allows the insertion of random values as data to the simulation of possible scenarios. The

Table 2 presents the step-by-step methodology used in the QRA.

3

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

Step Description

1 Problem Formulation: identify the objective for the case.

2 Data Collect: define representative data to model.

3 Identify parameters: define the variables according to the case.

6 Simulations: simulation different scenarios.

Table 2: Methodology for the QRA process. (Gomes, 2016)5.

Garcia et al. (2010)12 defines simulation as a tool for the QRA useful to generate options to

be validated before the implementation of the best one. The validation step is very important

to define the proper and ideal methodology to use in general cases.

The steps 3 and 4 presented at the Table 2 are very important in the methodology, being

necessary a complete understanding of the process as a part of the whole system at risk. The

proper probability distribution will define the process (the anomaly behavior) and the

database might be representative of the possible scenarios.

In the geotechnical structures field, it is possible to occurs accidents caused by

ordinary faults, design inefficiency or bad maintenance and operation systems. The

definition of the risk might consider the possible events to start an accident, the

consequences and their association in the QRA (GOMES et. al, 2016) 4. Therefore, the

behavior of the real case and its anomalies are necessary to select the right parameter to

approach the probability associated to its occurrence.

The reliability concept includes these demands and the Weibull distribution was

developed with this purpose. Reliability is here associated to very successful operation or

with no faults in the process as pointed by Carnaúba and Sellito (2013) 3. In engineering

field, the reliability is granted by a specific design, with clear rules of operation and

maintenance over the life time of the structure (MACHADO and ANDRADE, 2013) 7.

According to Carnaúba and Sellito (2013)3, the Weibull distribution is a semi-

empirical equation used in maintenance engineering field, available for a huge range of

scenarios where the system can be divided in parts. The equation was presented by

Waloddi Weibull in 1939, concerning to his research about the steel strength as a tool for

identify the initial time of the failure. It is a probability density function type density

probability, restricted to events increasing or decreasing continually, recommended for

reliability and durability studies (SIMONETTI et al., 2009) 10. The Weibull distribution is

presented in the equations 1 to 4.

−1

t − t 0 t − t0

f (t ) = e − (1)

−1

t − t 0

h(t ) = (2)

t − t0

R(t ) = e − (3)

4

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

F (t ) = 1 − R (t ) (4)

In these equations, is the shape or intensity parameter; is the time life

characteristic index; t is the period of time till a failure; t0 is the period without failure;

f(t) is the Weibull probability density function; h(t) is the rate of failure of the Weibull

distribution; R(t) is the reliability function of the Weibull distribution and; F(t) is the

accumulated density function of the Weibull distribution.

The shape parameter might be parameterized according to the behavior of the case

studied and his value is very important in the response of the Weibull distribution. A

small variation of change the rate of F(t). Table 3 presents a range of possible values to

, depending on the behavior of the failure.

<1 Decreasing the intensity continuously

=1 Constant

>1 Increasing the intensity continuously

=2 Linearly increasing

Table 3: Possible values for , depending on the behavior of the failure. (Gomes, 2016)5.

According to Gomes et al. (2016) 4,6, the main challenge in modeling using the Weibull

distribution for dams consists in define a proper value to , to associate the anomaly to

the right period of operation. For that approach, it is recommended a value for < 1, in

the initial phase of operation, corresponding to the most critical load for the dam – the

first fulfillment of the reservoir. This period corresponds to the first 7 years and the

anomalies occur due to inefficient design of internal drainage or faults in the construction

process.

For the intermediate period of operation, from 8 to 50 years, it is recommended a

value to = 2, once the anomalies still can be rising, if to the embankment is not applied

a good maintenance and operation strategy. At the end of this period it is possible to

observe a stabilization of anomalies. Over 50 years, the aging of the dam, it is

recommended the value of > 1, due the risk rises concomitantly with the age of the dam

(GOMES et al., 2016) 4. This approach has shown that the risk of failure of a dam in

operation increases as the values of are close to 1.

Another way to verify and apply the influence of the shape parameter is to associate

the value with the quality of the material (soil) used in the dam. It is possible to associate

shape parameter values close to 1 with the most vulnerable materiel, which generates a

greater risk. The parameter values for less vulnerable materials would be established

according to the adequacy between a quality scale and the established failure

probabilities. In this research, only values of > 1 were considered, due the situation of

less intensity in the growth of the risk can be related to the monitoring of the dams.

The Premuoca dam was constructed with the most vulnerable soil type among the 3

selected cases. It was used SM in its embankment and SC in the others ones. The

vulnerability of SM is associated to the severe slope deformation at its upstream slope,

anomaly observed after the 3rd year in operation. The three cases present also anomalies

associated to internal erosion or inefficient internal drainage and signs of piping at the

downstream slope.

The validation of the t and t0 follow the information collected with the locals

during the inspections. The parameterization was according to the time in operation and

for the 3 cases 3 scales of period were considered: initial period from 0 to 7 years;

5

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

intermediate period from 8 to 50 years and; the aging period, over 50 years. Tables 4 and

5 resume the parameterization assumed in the modeling for the three cases and for the

two anomalies separately.

1,4 1,6 1,2

The soil type is not a risk The soil type is a vulnerable

The soil type is a vulnerable

factor but there is irregular risk factor, being the worst of

risk factor.

occupation downstream all cases

55-70 55-70 1-3/12-15

Random values due the absence maintenance during the life time

75-109 75-95 1-7/20-35

Values established according

t Values established according to the life time of the dam

to significant periods of the

and its current time in operation.

life of the dam.

50 50 0,25/10

t0

Random value according to the period analyzed.

Table 4: Parameters assumed for piping anomaly.

period of operation. As pointed before, initially due the faults in design or construction,

during the intermediate due the lack of maintenance and remediation.

The slope deformation is associated to the vulnerability of soil type and the lack of

maintenance and remediation. It is important to consider the possible critical situation

due the presence of non-saturated soil, very common in semiarid region, where are

located the case studies.

1,6 1,8 1,4

Although it presents the

same soil as Forquilha, the Considering the relationship of vulnerability between soils and

occupation immediately other factors influencing the risk, this dam presents the lowest

downstream increases the intensity of risk growth.

intensity of growth of the

risk of this dam.

55-70 55-70 15-20

Considering the absence of information on past ages and the useful life that was found in a

dam, these values were arbitrated.

65-109 65-95 25-35

t Values established considering the period of the useful life of the dam is and its current time in

operation.

50 50 10

t0

Value arbitrated to adequation the period analyzed.

Table 5: Parameters assumed for slope deformation anomaly.

5 RESULTS

Using the parameters defined at the Tables 4 and 5, which generated more than 200

scenarios, the Weibull distribution was solved, and the results are presented at the

Figures 5 to 11 and resumed at Tables 6 and 7.

6

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

Figure 6: Premuoca: results for piping in the Figure 7: Premuoca: results for slope deformation

current period. in the current period.

Figure 8: Forquilha: results for piping in the current Figure 9: Forquilha: results for slope deformation

period. in the current period.

7

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

Figure 10: Acaraú-Mirim: results for piping in the Figure 11: Acraú-Mirim: results for slope

current period. deformation in the current period.

PIPING

Premuoca

Forquilha Acaraú-Mirim

3rd year Now

MIN: 59.38% MIN: 75.12% MIN: 17.51% MIN: 21.07%

MAX: 96.55% MAX: 97.22% MAX: 51.59% MAX: 66.82 %

Table 6: Results for piping anomaly.

The maximum value of 96.6% for F(t) in the Premuoca dam is very representative in

the validation process, according to the associated parameters previously the established.

A > 1 was applied and the failure in the dam was observed at the 3rd year of operation.

The second higher value for F(t) is also for Premuoca dam, which also is associated to

the parameters previously the considered. Premuoca was constructed with a vulnera ble

soil type and presents signals of piping. The dam also presents the most severe slope

deformation, even being the youngest dam.

SLOPE DEFORMATION

Premuoca Forquilha Acaraú-Mirim

MIN: 48.75% MIN: 6.06% MIN: 8.15%

MAX: 87.06% MAX: 50.18% MAX: 67.34 %

Table 7: Results for slope deformation anomaly.

In the Premuoca dam it can be observe a long extension of scarp, just under the crest.

The slope deformations in Forquilha and Acaraú-Mirim dams consists in local loss of

material.

6 CONCLUSIONS

The QRA methodology purposed, according to the research results, is a strong tool

that can be used in general cases such the ones presented in the cases studies.

Unfortunately, they are very representative of others dams of the same owner, where

there is no a maintenance and operation system. The QRA using the Weibull distribution

is very versatile, once it allows a design of random scenarios.

The methodology also allows a classification of the dams according to the urgency in

interventions for remediation. In this paper, for example, the Premuoca dam is the most

critical case for both anomalies, followed by Forquilha and Acaraú-Mirim.

8

Francisco Hiago de S. Gomes, Vanda Tereza C. Malveira

For the next assessments it will be possible simplify the parameterization process,

after the results presented in this research, very aligned to the established concepts and

comprehension of the real process. We do not recommend the application of the

methodology without previous field inspections, step very important to parameterization.

REFERENCES

[1] Brasil, Lei Federal nº 12.334. Presidência da República, Brasília: D.O.U. 09.20.2010.

[2] Brasil, Ministério do Meio Ambiente, Conselho Nacional de recursos Hídricos, Resolução

N° 143, Brasília: D.O.U. 11.17.2012.

[3] E.R. Carnaúba and M.A. Sellitto, Análise de confiabilidade e evolução de uma máquina

de envase de leite UHT ao longo da curva da banheira, Revista Liberato, Novo

Hamburgo, vol. 14, nº 22, pp. 171-185, jul./dez (2013).

[4] F.H.S. Gomes, F.A. Furtado and V.T.C. Malveira, Avaliação quantitativa de risco em

barragens do semiárido utilizando a distribuição de Weibull, Revista Fundações e Obras

Geotécnicas, nº 65 (2016).

[5] F.H.S. Gomes, Desempenho e segurança em barragens do semiárido utilizando a

distribuição de Weibull, Monografia do curso de Engenharia Civil – Universidade

Estadual Vale do Acaraú (UVA), Sobral, Ceará (2016).

[6] F.H.S. Gomes, F.A. Furtado and V.T.C. Malveira, Adequação da distribuição de Weibull

na avaliação da segurança de barragens, XVIII Congresso Brasileiro de Mecânica dos

Solos e Engenharia Geotécnica, Belo Horizonte, Brasil (2016).

[7] F. Machado and J.J.O. Andrade, Emprego da confiabilidade para o estabelecimento de

estratégias de manutenção na indústria metal-mecânica, XXXIII Encontro Nacional De

Engenharia De Produção, Salvador, Brasil (2013).

[8] J.R. Afonso, J.R.; J.O. Pedro; L.M.M.S. Caldeira, Revision of the portuguese dam safety

regulations, Second International Dam World Conference, Lisboa, Portugal (2015).

[9] L.M.M.S. Caldeira, Análises de riscos em geotecnia: aplicação a barragens de aterro,

248 f, Tese (Doutorado) - Universidade Técnica de Lisboa - Instituto Superior Técnico,

Lisboa (2008).

[10] M.J. Simonetti, A.L. Souza, L.F.S. Silveira and J.P.S Arruda, A importância da

engenharia da confiabilidade e os conceitos básicos de distribuição de Weibull, Revista

Sapere, Tatuí, vol. 1, nº 1, jul/dez (2009).

[11] R.A. Menescal, V.P.P.B. Vieira, A.S. Fontenelle and S.K.F. Oliveira, Incertezas,

ameaças e medidas preventivas nas fases de vida de uma barragem, XXIV Seminário

Nacional de Grandes Barragens, Fortaleza, Ceará (2001).

[12] S. Garcia, P.R.B. Lustosa and N.R. Barros, Aplicabilidade do método de Simulação de

Monte Carlo na previsão dos custos de produção de companhias industriais: o caso da

companhia Vale do Rio Doce, Revista de Contabilidade e Organizações, São Paulo, vol.

4, nº 10, p.152-173, set/dez, (2010).

[13] V.T.C. Malveira, F.A. Furtado, F.H.S. Gomes and A.T.S. Ponte, A fragilidade da

infraestrutura na avaliação do estado de conservação das barragens de acordo com a

R143, 14 Congresso Nacional de Geotecnia, Covilhã, Portugal (2014).

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