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Electricity Retail Sales, Total; Million Kilowatthours

YearMonth Electricity Retail Sales in Million Kilowatthours Mean Substracted


### 1 76287763.52 76287764 ###
### 2 53272095.02 76115046 ###
### 3 36262417.84 74115007 ###
### 4 81249174.83 70914272 ###
### 5 269262.75 71568295 ###
### 6 34299764.58 65692012 ###
### 7 44317565.79 63008072 ###
### 8 36330732.53 61340208 ###
### 9 6303693.32 59166857 ###
### 10 5272835.18 54765351 ###
### 11 41264121.03 50633480 ###
### 12 95291987.9 49711261 ###
### 1 67310846.42 53184774 ###
### 2 48272323.83 54142072 ###
### 3 15269315.11 53499804 ###
### 4 48254326.33 50268839 ###
### 5 81264442.41 49934971 ###
### 6 67289979.39 52268455 ###
### 7 76315850.14 53297384 ###
### 8 15332255.82 54966029 ###
### 9 73296041.66 51622808 ###
### 10 92267596.29 53183841 ###
### 11 61252942.73 56137629 ###
### 12 37268537.99 56374111 ###
### 1 91290967.48 54673044 ###
### 2 78263728.26 57429577 ###
### 3 31267459.8 58923488 ###
### 4 82257946.38 56538427 ###
### 5 9269323.29 58423142 ###
### 6 5296469.77 54318365 ###
### 7 72337284.68 50224142 ###
### 8 43338114.52 51820365 ###
### 9 27310497.88 50969110 ###
### 10 79284177.96 48903822 ###
### 11 96263033.59 51161382 ###
### 12 37286462.4 54596571 ###
### 1 67304262.6 53039132 ###
### 2 29282239.58 54007554 ###
### 3 40274473.42 51856935 ###
### 4 7256709.99 50757679 ###
### 5 79268788.09 47105101 ###
### 6 11290449.88 49505318 ###
### 7 64334208.69 46275603 ###
### 8 21341819.28 47547484 ###
### 9 37306589.9 45278444 ###
### 10 5277380.22 44468018 ###
### 11 55262976.7 41160246 ###
### 12 71293836.14 42115677 ###
### 1 39307856.47 44277066 ###
### 2 15286433.35 43706837 ###
### 3 24278181.56 41260630 ###
### 4 74262850.99 39729402 ###
### 5 9279035.83 42319188 ###
### 6 72307772.36 39503423 ###
### 7 7333907.04 41954890 ###
### 8 73330926.53 39012667 ###
### 9 96308565.83 41585239 ###
### 10 31281736.73 45790114 ###
### 11 66270162.93 44456799 ###
### 12 37300049.88 46029042 ###
### 1 73309078.81 45158049 ###
### 2 72279513.82 47237274 ###
### 3 87286791.12 49067810 ###
### 4 56264167.94 51952420 ###
### 5 41273500.25 52124621 ###
### 6 319380.92 51083869 ###
### 7 82355514.14 46850246 ###
### 8 50362543.69 49517773 ###
### 9 22330923.38 49412633 ###
### 10 45297626.31 47073515 ###
### 11 87274585.47 46758735 ###
### 12 60307342.67 49827083 ###
### 1 65304865.97 50492734 ###
### 2 62281046.42 51504914 ###
### 3 62289970.26 52194233 ###
### 4 54268208.31 52829124 ###
### 5 45287198.13 52771527 ###
### 6 31321839.89 52000100 ###
### 7 95362386.77 50173226 ###
### 8 25368633.77 53615415 ###
### 9 59317282.1 51183097 ###
### 10 58291186.11 51661074 ###
### 11 97277181.97 52018732 ###
### 12 90300119.16 55466465 ###
### 1 32315103.76 58080266 ###
### 2 72301331.32 55846464 ###
### 3 4291660.35 56990054 ###
### 4 92275340.51 52601729 ###
### 5 13292800.26 55602702 ###
### 6 28323006.59 52045404 ###
### 7 77352642.32 49975014 ###
### 8 98373364.82 51992370 ###
### 9 75337524.57 55529900 ###
### 10 7307782.65 56941694 ###
### 11 3286299.31 52798512 ###
### 12 1307704.27 48665065 ###
### 1 18325233.6 44703996 ###
### 2 14304201.71 42421110 ###
### 3 93293482.61 39999180 ###
### 4 19277099.61 44089741 ###
### 5 65287332.15 41932136 ###
### 6 79326918.93 43627718 ###
### 7 83359355.04 46310758 ###
### 8 94350961.43 49101744 ###
### 9 64321634.48 52548737 ###
### 10 56290943.06 53317793 ###
### 11 36277123.32 53382913 ###
### 12 94307276.35 51841818 ###
### 1 91319507 55066125 ###
### 2 26284992.76 57793497 ###
### 3 36281900 55100257 ###
### 4 11263647.54 53422165 ###
### 5 43273123.78 49876978 ###
### 6 94303094.79 49175985 ###
### 7 96336080.82 52613211 ###
### 8 63342917.95 55938105 ### No Seasonal
### 9 44309073.39 56357735.00 ### 56357735.41
Average= 51622682.91 55221185
55048468
54875751
Department of Energy, U.S. Gove
No Seasonal Difference
Add Add Differece Multi Mul Diff
12048662.03 62145233.35 17836159.96 63149346.78 18840273.40
Energy, U.S. Government
Electricity Retail Sales, Total; Million Kilowatthours
Department of Energy, U.S. Government
Electricity Retail Sales in Million Kilowa
Electricity Retail
Sales in Million
Year Month Kilowatthours (Xi) Xi-A Electricity
2008 1 18325233.6 -40028856.89 120000000 Retail
2008 2 14304201.71 -44049888.78 100000000 Sales in
2008 3 93293482.61 34939392.12 80000000 Million
2008 4 19277099.61 -39076990.88 60000000 Kilowattho
2008 5 65287332.15 6933241.66 40000000 urs (Xi)
2008 6 79326918.93 20972828.44 20000000
2008 7 83359355.04 25005264.55
2008 8 94350961.43 35996870.94 123456789111111111122
2008 9 64321634.48 5967543.99 012345678901
2008 10 56290943.06 -2063147.43
2008
2008
11
12
36277123.32
94307276.35
-22076967.17
35953185.86
Xi-A
2009 1 91319507 32965416.51
2009 2 26284992.76 -32069097.73
2009 3 36281900 -22072190.49 60000000
2009 4 11263647.54 -47090442.95 40000000 Xi-A
2009 5 43273123.78 -15080966.71 20000000
2009 6 94303094.79 35949004.3
2009 7 96336080.82 37981990.33
-20000000
-40000000
2009 8 63342917.95 4988827.46 -60000000
2009 9 44309073.39 -14045017.1 123456789111111111122
Average(A)= 58354090.49 012345678901
Obeservation: The graph clearly shows the seasonal trend in data. Hence we use the Holt Winters Multiplicative method for predictions.
Date: 09/06/10 Time: 07:36
Sample: 2008M01 2009M09
Included observations: 21
Method: Holt-Winters Multiplicative Seasonal
Original Series: SER01
Forecast Series: SER01SM_MUL

Parameters: Alpha 0
Beta 0
Gamma 0.08
Sum of Squared Residuals 1.10E+16
Root Mean Squared Error 22913447
End of Period Levels: Mean 59893464
Trend 0
Seasonals: 2008M10 0.94
2008M11 0.61
2008M12 1.57
2009M01 0.31
2009M02 0.24
2009M03 1.56
2009M04 0.32
2009M05 1.09
2009M06 1.32
2009M07 1.39
2009M08 1.58
2009M09 1.07

Year Month Predicted Data


2008 1 18325234
2008 2 14304202 Actual Data (Xi)
2008 3 93293483
2008 4 19277100
Electricity
2008 5 65287332
Retail Sales
2008 6 79326919 150000000 in Million
2008 7 83359355 100000000 Kilowatthours
2008 8 94350961 (Xi)
2008 9 64321634
50000000
2008 10 56290943
2008 11 36277123 123456789111111111122
2008 12 94307276 012345678901
2009 1 18325234
2009
2009
2
3
14304202
93293483
Predicted Data
2009 4 19277100
2009 5 65287332
2009 6 79326919 100000000 Predicted
2009 7 83359355 80000000 Data
2009 8 94350961 60000000
2009 9 64321634 40000000
20000000
2009 10 56290943
2009 11 36277123 123456789111111111122222
2009 12 94307276 012345678901234