Chapter 1

THE PROBLEM AND ITS SETTING

Introduction

Humanity has interacted with the natural environment for as long as he has

occupied the planet Earth. The environment’s dynamic nature cannot be ignored and the

necessity of the natural resources cannot be over-emphasized. It is important to share

space. As this interaction between humanity and the environment has increased so has

the susceptibility to hazards. Neither hazards nor resources are absolute they result from

a relationship.

Natural hazards are the horrible costs of global warming. A hazard is a situation

where there is a threat to life, health, environment, or property. Earthquakes, floods,

tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, droughts, and volcanic eruptions are natural hazards that

cause a lot of destruction.

Earthquakes in Japan, devastating floods in China, and a deadly hurricane that

swept across Haiti – these disasters helped push the total damage caused by natural

catastrophes to $175 billion in 2016, according to the German reinsurance firm Munich

RE. The global cost was the highest in four years. Only 30% of the losses -- $50 billion --

were insured, according to Munich RE. The costliest disasters were in Asia. Two

earthquakes in Japan combined to produce $31 billion in losses, while floods that struck

China during the summer caused $20 billion in damage.

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National Geographic stated that the most common and most destructive among

these natural hazards is flood. A flood occurs when water overflows or inundates land

that's normally dry. This can happen in a multitude of ways. Most common is when rivers

or streams overflow their banks. Excessive rain, a ruptured dam or levee, rapid ice melting

in the mountains, or even an unfortunately placed beaver dam can overwhelm a river and

send it spreading over the adjacent land, called a floodplain. Coastal flooding occurs when

a large storm or tsunami causes the sea to surge inland.

River and river systems are very important to man. In the historical times, the entire

civilization grew around or near the rivers. River and their adjacent floodplain corridors

fulfill a variety of functions both as part of the natural ecosystem and for a variety of human

uses. The rivers and river systems also have negative values; they often cause great

damage and death due to flood. Flood hazard is the probability of occurrence of a

potentially damaging flood event of a certain magnitude within a given time period and

area (Brooks, 2003). River flooding represents the most common global hazard causing

phenomenal losses. Throughout human history, swelling rivers and floods have taken a

heavy toll on properties and lives and caused more economic losses than any other

hazard.

Asia continent is much affected by floods and the countries like India, China,

Philippines, Iran, Bangladesh and Nepal are extremely vulnerable (WWAP, 2006). It

indicates that the majority of flood disasters’ victims are poor people of developing

countries, who suffer most and are the first casualty of such incidents. "In the next 30

years, it is projected that heavy rainfall events will be increasing in Asia, by about 20% for

sure," climate scientist Dewi Kirono at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial

Research Organisation (CSIRO) told CNN.

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The Republic of the Philippines is an archipelago, or chain of islands, located off

the south-eastern coast of Asia. Consisting of over 7,000 volcanic islands with a total land

area of nearly 300,000 square kilometres, islands of the Philippines are predominantly

mountainous except for densely populated coastal plains on larger islands.

Vergano (November 2013) and Lee (October 2015) stated on different articles of

National Geographic that the Philippines sits in what scientists call the "warm pool" in the

Western Pacific, without much else in the way to take the force of storms before they make

landfall. Those warm sea surface temperatures mean more water evaporating into the

atmosphere, loading a hurricane with more energy, said Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric

scientist at MIT in an interview.

Hazards are forever a threat but can be managed if we learn the lessons from past

disasters. Over the years, it has become clear that effective disaster prevention and

mitigation entails two important aspects. The first is the delivery of accurate, readily

accessible, understandable and timely warnings. It is the responsibility of government

and should be executed using the best science and advanced tools. The second entails

the appropriate response of people when they are given a warning. This is the more

difficult part because it requires the long-term involvement of everyone and not when it’s

too late -people must educate themselves on the different hazards, know the dangers in

their neighborhood and practice evacuation drills. These long-term preparations need to

be accompanied by reliable hazard maps that depict scenarios of hazards in a community.

It is imperative that the maps be accurate because all plans, even if well executed, will fail

if they are wrong.

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Background of the Study

During the 20th century, floods killed at least eight million people (EM-DAT, 2004).

Floods are often cited as being the most lethal of all natural disasters (Alexander, 1993

et.al) Flooding is the unusual presence of water on land to a depth which affects normal

activities. River and flash flooding usually result from abnormally high rainfall over a

relatively short period: hours for flash floods; days for river floods. Heavy rainfall during a

tropical rainy season can lead to monsoon floods, which can affect rivers and may also

occur as flash flooding. There are many factors that can cause flooding.

Geology

The Angat River is bounded by the Sierra Madre, which consists of a range

of mountais which consists of folded and faulted sedimentary formations including

limestones, siltstones, conglomerates, and shales. The Angat River snakes

through the municipalities of Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray, Angat, Bustos,

San Rafael, Baliuag, Plaridel, Pulilan, Calumpit, Paombong, and Hagonoy which

the se municipalities are comprising of thick alluvial deposits consisting of sand,

silt and clay.

Infrastructures

Many subdivisions were built in which fields were put up as subdivisions

and are in high area. The tendency is that water that should be in the subdivision

areas settled on the road, going down to a much lower area. Another, illegal

structures along the rivers and water, even in the drainage and irrigation canals in
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which the flood water would have flowed - another reason in slow subsidence of

flood water.

Water Wastes

There is no maintenance of the excavation of the rivers and water, making

it filled with different wastes that result to slow absorption of water. There are also

some distractions like the plastic materials and Styrofoam which do not dissolve

and so resulting to clogging of water wastes causing flood water not to flow

properly.

Land Use

The assessment of flood hazard for management must look into how land-

cover/land-use has been altered, as the impacts of these alterations, will be seen

in the behaviour of water. The land cover is generally agricultural with paddy rice.

Most of the rice is under irrigation. Pockets of coconut plantations exit at the

peripheries of the rice fields. These rice fields are continuously under water,

making the area to be saturated even before the onset of floods. The farming

practices of canals in the field and poor drainage systems due to low relief

encourages flooding. From the field observation there is indiscriminate

development of urban centers and roads changing the previous land coves of

grass into networks of paved roads, which enhance the movement of water into

the lower areas.

Climate

This climate is influenced by Northeast Monsoon winds and the Pacific

trade winds. These Monsoon winds create the low-pressure area in the pacific
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resulting in tropical cyclones that affects the area in November and December

(SLREP, 1987; RBMP, 2003). Rainfall occurs throughout the year with low rainfall

between January to May and high rainfall between June and December. In the

lower basin mean annual rainfall ranges between 1850-2300mm. The main factors

influencing rainfall are the air streams, the inter-tropical convergence zone and the

topography. Rainfall intensity is influenced by duration (RIDF, 1992; FCID, 2003).

The mean temperatures are high throughout the year with the daily mean

temperatures in the range of 24.1°c to 28.1°C and an annual mean of 27ºC (RBMP,

2003). The average diurnal temperature range is about 7.5º0c the hottest months

are between May and June. January and December experience highest mean

annual relative humidly of 80%90%. The annual potential evaporation observed is

122 mm, the lowest being 75mm observed in the month of November and the

highest of 135mm in the month of April.

Theoretical Framework

Inundation or floodplain studies are widely used and valuable for such purposes to

give an overview of water surface profiles in terms of maps, not only in flood prone areas,

but in areas close to bodies of water (Haestad Methods, Inc. et al., 2003). Such studies

can incorporate the analysis of past flood events or the estimation of the water surface

profile for different typhoon return period that can be calibrated, with the aid of specialized

software specifically designed for hydraulic analysis. Together with the current

developments in geographic information systems (GIS), hydraulic analysis had been

modernized and can yield more accurate outcomes and details in the models (Haestad

Methods, Inc. et al., 2003). Reconstructing flood events caused by heavy/torrential rains
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can assist in understanding how flooding occurs, and in mapping areas that were flooded.

If an area has been flooded before, it more likely that it will be flooded again in the near

future. If this is known through flood reconstruction, then it is easy to pinpoint which areas

are to be avoided should heavy/torrential rains will pour over the area. However, flood

maps topographic accuracy is a function of detail and age. Age is important because

topography can change over time due to development and ecological factors such as

erosion. The topographic data used in mapping studies can have significant variances in

age and detail, and thus, accuracy. Communities can participate in a number of ways, one

of which include development of updated hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, and

mapping.

Conceptual Framework

INPUT PROCESS OUTPUT

 Angat River  GIS

Profile Applications
ANGAT RIVER FLOOD
 DEM  Generation of MAP
 Bathymery Geometric
Data Data
 Rainfall  HEC-RAS
Records Computations

FEEDBACK
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Objectives of the Study

The general aim of this study is to develop One-dimensional flood models for

selected stretch (Bustos-San Rafael-Baliuag-Plaridel-Pulilan-Calumpit) from Angat River

as simulation of discharge released by Typhoon Karen.

Specifically, the study will seek answers to the following questions:

 To determine the profile of the Angat River in terms of its length and average

slope.

 To develop land-use map of the chosen area of study.

 To classify Typhoon Karen in terms of its year-return period

 To establish the stage hydrograph of the control points.

 To develop a flood hazard map of Angat River in variables of water elevations

and velocity.

Hypothesis

The failure to minimize the flooding occurrence in the Municipality of Calumpit has

caused the application of different methods in approaching the problem. The detailed

understanding of the behavior of water over the surface is vital. To improve the

understanding, the use of 1D models that require the reconstruction of the topography and

the riverbed in detail elaborately give information about the water movement on the

surface and the riverbed. The capability of using scenarios in these models improves the

understanding and addressing of the problem. Hec-RAS incorporated to ArcGIS 1D model

with the video capability of interactively viewing the scenarios enables the Municipality of
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Calumpit and the outlying towns who are constantly under the threat of flooding to picture

accurate flooding situation that may experience by the study area which can be used in

flood hazard assessment and disasters management.

Scope and Limitation

The study will focus on the development of One-dimensional model of selected

stretch of Angat River (Bustos-San Rafael-Baliuag-Plaridel-Pulilan-Calumpit) as a

simulation of the discharge released by Typhoon Karen. The location of the selected

stretch of study will be from the gauging station in Bustos up to another gauging station in

Calumpit. The study will be conducted from August to October 2017. The study will look

into the topics of the amount of discharges released by Typhoon Karen, the determination

of the areas to be inundated in typhoon Karen, its depth and time.

More so, the study will no longer take into consideration the presence of barriers

or any structural obstructions along the selected stretch.

The study will not include the extension stretch from Bagbag Bridge in Calumpit,

Bulacan to the downstream in Hagonoy, Bulacan due to unavailability of bathymetry data.

The study will consider the unsteady flow type of discharge from Typhoon Karen

as to be simulated in the selected stretch.

The study will use Digital Elevation Models of the selected stretch.

HEC-RAS and ArcGIS will be used as modelling software for simulation.

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Significance of the Study

To the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council

– The study will provide technical basis for Authorities in preparation of flood hazard and

disaster management and in the development of evacuation strategy in case of flood

phenomenon.

To the Towns Municipal Planning and Development Office

– The study will contribute in the conceptualization of appropriate urban planning,

infrastructure developments, and public structures designing.

To the Department of Public Works and Highways

– The study will serve as reference for the Public Works Official in the designing of

appropriate flood mitigating structures in the area of study.

To the Residents

– The study will provide video simulation for residents near the study area which will show

theoretical visualization of flooding scenario that will contribute in their knowledge on the

level of risk that may possibly experience by the towns.

To the Researchers

– The study will serve as basis for future researchers that are planning to focus on flood

hazard assessment of the Angat River particularly on the stretch along San Rafael-Bustos-
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Baliuag-Plaridel-Pulilan-Calumpit area applying two-dimensional model for hazard and

disaster management.

Definition of Terms

Discharge. This term refers to the volume rate of water flow that is transported

through a given cross-sectional area.

Flood. It is defined as a covering by water of land not normally covered by

water. It is the overflow of water that submerges land that is usually dry.

Flood Propagation Modelling. This term is denoted as the art of quantitatively

describing the characteristics and evolution of the flow that is set up when a large

amount of water moves along the earth surface in an uncontrolled way.

Gauging Station. It is a site on a stream, canal or reservoir where systematic

observations of water level or discharge are obtained.

Stage Hydrograph. This term refers to the graph that shows how the water

level at a particular location changes with time during a flood.

Simulation. It is defined as the false appearance or imitation of the operation of

a real-world process.

Stretch. It is a tract or expanse of land or water.

Topography. It is the detailed map description of surface features of land. It

includes the mountains, hills, valleys, lakes, oceans, rivers, cities, dams, and roads.