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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVIII No.16 Monday, 18 – 24 February 2019 Pgs.18 Rs.20

Nifty respects the support level of Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
10625 Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
to get a view of the stock market and the
By Sanjay R. Bhatia happenings which many may not be aware of.
The nervousness in the markets led to increased selling pressure
last week. Sustained selling pressure was seen across the board and the markets failed to offer any resilience due to lack
of buying support.
The FIIs turned large sellers in the cash and derivatives segment. The DIIs, however, turned net buyers once again and
were seen supporting the markets at the lower levels. The breadth of the market favoured declines amidst high volumes,
which is a negative sign for the markets.
On the domestic front, the earnings season which has almost
come to an end has been largely disappointing. The CPI and WPI
Believe it or not!
numbers continued the downward trajectory while the IIP Despite the 737.5 points fall in the Sensex last
numbers remained dismal. Crude oil prices rallied during the week, the following five stocks have given
week with Brent Crude Futures making a new high in 2019 positive returns!
amid US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran and supply cuts
led by the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting  Hitech Corporation recommended at Rs.93.60
Countries). in TF last week, jumped 7% to Rs.100.25 in
Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions just 1 week!
weighed on the market sentiment. The KST and RSI are both  Balkrishna Paper Mills recommended at
placed below their respective averages on the daily and weekly Rs.36.40 in SB last week, jumped 6% to
charts. Further, the MACD is placed below its average on the Rs.38.45 in just 1 week!
daily chart while the Stochastic is placed below its average on  Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail recommended
the weekly chart. Moreover, the Nifty is placed below its key
at Rs.212.35 in BB last week, rose 4% to
averages i.e. 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day
SMA is still placed below its 200-day SMA, signaling a ‘Death Rs.220.70 in just 1 week!
Cross’ breakdown. All these negative technical conditions could  Gujarat Ambuja Exports recommended at
lead to intermediate bouts of selling pressure, especially at the Rs.229.95 in BE last week, rose 2% to
higher levels. Rs.235.50 in 1 week!
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however, still hold  V-Guard Industries recommended at Rs.192
good. The Stochastic is placed above its average and in the in SW last week, rose 2% to Rs.196.70 in 1
oversold territory on the daily chart. Further, the MACD is week!
placed above its average on the weekly chart. Moreover, the
Nifty is placed above its 100-day SMA. These positive technical (BB – Best Bet; BE – Bull’s Eye; SB – Stock Buzz;
conditions could lead to regular short-covering and buying SW- Stock Watch; TF – Techno Funda)
support at the lower levels.
This happens only in Money Times!
The -DI line has once again moved above the +DI line and is th Now in its 28 Year
A Time Communications Publication 1
placed above 32, which indicates that the sellers are gaining strength. The ADX line continues to languish around 13,
which indicates that the current move lacks strength. The market sentiment remains nervous and fluid, especially with
the latest terrorist attack on army convoys and possible
retaliatory measures on Pakistan by the Indian army.
Although the Nifty breached the support level of 10625
on Friday, it managed to close above 10710, which
augurs well for the markets. It is important for the Nifty
to sustain above 10625 for selling pressure to ease and
to move higher to test the resistance level of 10814. If
the Nifty fails to sustain above 10625, further selling
pressure is likely and it could fall further to test the
support range of 10526-10488.
Meanwhile, the markets will take cues from the news
flow and aftermath of the Pulwana attacks, Dollar-
Rupee exchange rate, global markets and crude oil
prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 36350, 36602, 37165, 37490 and 38125 levels and seeks support at the
35606, 35400, 35187, 34748, 34344, 33723 and 33349 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 10710,
10756, 10814, 10843, 10942, 11008, 11146 and 11350 while its support levels are placed at 10625, 10589, 10526,
10488 and 10333.

BAZAR.COM

Hits & Misses!


Just when politicians were ridiculing each other and the electoral atmosphere charged as 24 hour TV channels
conducted debates and discussions among party spokesperson, terrorists from across the border struck in Pulwama in
Kashmir killing 37 soldiers adding fear to the uncertainity in the stock markets. Hence Dalal Street benchmarks will
remain volatile. It will, therefore, be proper to take a fundamental viewpoint, rather than the sentiment, which is at its
negative low. At such times, a relook at the ignored fundamentals may offer some solace and confidence in the stocks
one holds. This is an apt time to take a closer look at the hits and misses on the Sensex and the Nifty.
Around 40% of the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 companies that have announced their Q3FY19 results but missed the
analysts’ estimates in terms of either profit or sales.
Among the thirty companies on the S&P BSE Sensex, around six have missed the street expectations in terms of both
sales and profits, while eight out of fifty Nifty companies fell in the same category. Thus a total of nineteen companies on
the Sensex and Nifty have missed the Street’s estimates either in terms of profit or sales.
Around 11 Sensex companies missed estimates either in terms of profit or sales. Among the sectors, auto was the major
disappointment, followed by information technology (I. T.), non-banking financial companies (NBFC) and power.
The companies which failed to meet Bloomberg compiled mean analyst expectations both in terms of profit and sales
include HDFC Bank, HUL, Maruti, Power Grid, TCS, Tata Motors, Cipla, JSW Steel. Although HDFC Bank, HUL, Power Grid,
TCS reported year-on-year (y-o-y) higher profits and revenues they failed to meet analysts’ expectations. Amongst the
stocks that gave a strong Q3 performance and beat the analysts’ expectations were Adani Ports, ZEEL, Axis Bank, Coal
India, ITC, Kotak Bank, L&T, RIL, SBI, Sun Pharma, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Gail, Grasim, HCL Tech & Titan.
The corporates which have partially missed analysts’ expectation include Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto, Bharti Airtel, HDFC,
ICICI Bank, Infosys, M&M, NTPC, Wipro, Yes Bank, Bharti Infratel, Dr Reddy’s, Hindalco, India Bulls Housing, Tech
Mahindra, Ultratech Cement & UPL.
Despite witnessing a slump in their y-o-y net profit for Q3, BPCL, HPCL & IOC beat the Street’s estimates. Hero Moto Corp
and Vedanta also beat the Street’s estimates despite the fall in profitability. On the other hand, Bajaj Auto, Induslnd Bank,
Wipro, Bajaj Finserv, Bharati Infra, Dr. Reddy’s, Hindalco, Tech Mahindra and Ultratech Cement may have missed the
analysts’ expectation despite reporting strong to decent Q3 numbers.
Last but not the least, the December quarter profit of 30 Sensex companies has increased 22.8% over the same period
last year whereas sales rose 23.14% on a y-o-y basis. Nifty company profits, on the other hand, is lower by 2.16%,
though sales are higher at 18.65%.

A Time Communications Publication 2


These readings may heal the investors pain caused by volatility and allow them to build up a sound portfolio rather than
get unduly perturbed. The worst may be over for autos and NBFCs although it may take a quarter or two more to get
them to the fast Lane. Till then, be smart angler, a prudent investor braving the nervousness and needless wreckage of
the sentiment.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Resistance to attract profit-booking


Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 35809 Down 36101 Down 35871 Up 33322
Start Date - 13-02-19 - 15-02-19 - 31-05-16 -
Start Level - 36034 - 35809 - 26667 -
Gain/Loss (-) - 225 - 0 - 9142 -
% Gain/Loss (-) - 0.62 - 0.00 - 34.28 -

The sideways volatility phase continues since November 2018. Alternate week up and down movement has been
witnessed around the WRV. The oscillation around the WRV has been in the range of 2-4% on either side. Either this
volatility will continue for the next couple of months or it might indicate a strong breakdown for Wave c structure to test
back 33291.
Last week, the Sensex opened at 36585.50 and hit a high
at 36588.41. The Sensex fell to 35510.96 and closed the
week at 35808.94 and thereby showed a net fall of 737
points on a week-to-week basis.
Daily Chart
A swing top was formed on 07-02-19 at 37172 which
was confirmed on 08-02-19, with a gap down bearish
candle making a lower high and lower low.
Since then, a lower high and lower low continued with a
bearish candle or negative candle for 5 trading days
back to back.
The last swing bottom was at 35375 with the demand
zone of 35734-35375. The low on Friday was 35510 and
closed at 35808.
Following are the 4 demand zones and the Sensex must respect any of the demand zones as shock absorbers.
1) 35734-355375 2)35744-35382 3) 35711-35010 4) 35207-34426
Mostly, we find 35000 as the common subset of all the demand zones.
If the rise from the low of 33291 to 36446 is Wave (a) on the daily chart then Wave (b) is in progress with double
combination- the triangle got completed at 35382. Wave x ended at 36701. Next combination is under progress with a
flat or expanding triangle. If it’s flat, then it could end at the current level of Friday’s low of 35510 or at 35010. If it is an
expanding triangle then Wave d will end at similar level of 35510 to 35010 for a rise which may extend to 37172 or
above for Wave d. Subsequently Wave e will fall back down to 35000 or below. The expanding triangle can be a roller
coaster whereas if it is flat then the end will have to be around 35510-35010 and form Wave (b) for the rally to exceed
37172 to test the peak of 38989.
On the daily chart, a bounce is likely form the current level or from the lower level of 35000.
However a resistance hangs overhead on pullback rallies.
Weekly Chart
Considering on the weekly chart the broader structural scenario, the Sensex is threatening for Wave C slide to test
33291-32483. The chart development appears to be the right shoulder and a follow up breakdown below 35300 with
bearish candle at the end of the week can seal the slide to 33291-32483. The neckline development is around 34000 but
the zone of 33291-32483 may be tested if 35300 is violated on weekly closing with a bearish candle.

A Time Communications Publication 3


Resistance during the week will be at 36225-36588-37172. As long as 37172 is not crossed on weekly closing a pullback
cannot be extended and any rise in upcoming weeks can result into a lower top formation for eventual slide below
35300.
BSE Mid-Cap Index
Weekly Chart
The market is not considerate towards mid caps and small caps as they face a sharp stock wise slide.
A fall and close below 13500 can lead to another bout of heavy selling.
If the recovery has to happen then it can be from 13500 or a slide down to 12500-11400 zone. Any rise appears to be
meaningless for ‘BSE Mid-Cap index and its stocks.
BSE Small-Cap Index
Weekly Chart
BSE Small Cap Index shows a breakdown and is ready for slide to 12400-11400.
Strategy for the week
Exit long and sell on rise to 35969-36427 with a stop loss of 37200. Expect 35350-34273. Early breakdown below
35300 and a further weekly closing below 35300 with a bearish candle at the end of week can lead to slide to 34426-
33291. On a breakdown the intention will be to test 33291.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & S2- Support

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
WIPRO 375.55 368.5 369.6 374.5 380.5 391.5 62.8 368.1 11/1/2019
ADITYA BIRLA FASHION 217.45 209.5 211.1 215.9 222.3 233.5 62.2 209.8 1/2/2019
BATA INDIA 1254.00 1177.0 1193.0 1238.0 1299.0 1405.0 61.8 1178.5 8/2/2019
BAJAJ HOLDING 3153.00 3075.0 3093.0 3135.0 3195.0 3297.0 56.5 3011.3 8/2/2019
IPCA LABORATORIES 775.00 725.0 740.3 759.7 794.3 848.3 50.8 762.5 15/02/19

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & S2- Support

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
GRAPHITE INDIA 429.25 294.5 387.0 437.3 479.5 487.5 22.70 506.01 22/11/18
VEDANTA LIMITED 147.45 130.8 142.9 150.5 155.0 158.0 22.72 164.69 1/2/2019
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM C 48.70 32.2 44.0 51.0 55.8 58.1 23.02 56.98 18/01/19
BIRLA CORPORATION 450.85 408.6 439.6 459.3 470.6 479.0 23.04 480.07 4/1/2019

A Time Communications Publication 4


ARVIND 77.75 69.5 75.5 79.3 81.5 83.0 23.39 83.54 9/11/2018

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

EXIT LIST
Note: R1- (Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close R1 R2 R3 SA S1 Monthly RS

AARTI INDUSTRIES 1436.00 1549.74 1596.00 1642.26 1792.00 1157.7 43.71


NESTLE INDIA 10582.00 10836.40 11016.00 11195.60 11777.00 9314.4 44.88
ABBOTT INDIA 7464.00 7774.76 7876.00 7977.24 8305.00 6916.8 45.53

TOWER TALK
 The RBI has not found any divergence in the asset classification and provisioning done by Yes Bank in 2017-18. A
big positive for the bank. Buy.
 GAIL (India) posted a higher EPS of Rs.7.5 for Q3FY19 v/s Rs.5.6 for Q3FY18. Buy.
 Ultramarine & Pigments continues to report higher revenues this quarter. Its 9MFY19 earnings have already
crossed FY18 earnings. Accumulate.
 With railway revenues expected to grow by about Rs.20000 crore, infra spending is likely to pick pace. Buy
Texmaco Rail Engineering, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International and Titagarh Wagons.
 Bajaj Electricals is back on the fast track with 73% higher PAT for Q3. Buy.
 Oberoi Realty, which recently raised Rs.1200 crore via a QIP, utilised the funds to buy large land parcels at bargain
prices. Buy for about 40% returns within a year.
 Tata Steel posted 54% higher consolidated PAT for Q3 at Rs.1753 crore. A worthy buy.
 Rolta India has lost half its net worth in the last one month alone. It makes a good contrarian bet at less than
Rs.4/share. The stock’s 52-week high is Rs.80.
 Market participants seem to have ignored the good set of numbers posted by Mahindra & Mahindra for Q3 given
its big expansion plans, farmer-supportive interim budget and increase in rural spending, all these factors make
this stock an excellent buy.
 Very few stocks have held firm in the current volatile markets and Indian Oil Corporation is one such share.
Accumulate.
 Radico Khaitan posted 49% higher PAT for Q3 and is likely to launch new products. Accumulate.
 The cement boom is around the corner. J.K. Lakshmi Cement posted 72% higher PAT for Q3 on 12% higher
income. Buy.
 Gujarat-based Atul Auto posted a good set of numbers for Q3. Its 9MFY19 earnings are almost equal to its FY18
earnings. With improving fundamentals, its prospects look good. Buy.
 Spice Jet’s Q3 PAT has fallen sharply by 77% in spite of a spurt in revenues. Sell immediately.
 Apollo Hospitals Enterprise has crashed on the back of pledged shares worries. Sell immediately to avoid further
losses.
 Great Eastern Shipping posted 3x higher PAT at Rs.299 crore. Its prospects look good. Buy.
 Corporation Bank has finally turned around with Rs.60.5 crore PAT for Q3 v/s a loss of Rs.1240.5 crore in the
previous corresponding quarter. A good contrarian buy at the current beaten down level.
 Coal India posted 50% higher PAT of Rs.4567 crore and declared an interim dividend of Rs.9. Accumulate.
 Godrej Industries Q3 PAT doubled to Rs.121.28 crore. Buy with a two-year perspective.
 Financially stressed Hotel LeelaVenture seems to have come out of its woes. Buy for the long term.
 L&T Hydrocarbon, a subsidiary of Larsen & Toubro (L&T), has obtained a Rs.7700 crore worth order from Algerias
Sonatrach for setting up 3 central processing facilities. Buy L&T.
 An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, Manappuram Finance and REC.

A Time Communications Publication 5


BEST BET

Cera Sanitaryware Ltd


(BSE Code: 532443) (CMP: Rs.2247.35) (FV: Rs.5)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Promoted by Mr. Vikram Somany, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd (CERA) is India’s third largest sanitaryware producer with an
organised market share of 23%, after HSIL (40%) and Parryware Roca (30%). It also manufactures faucets and tiles. It
recently commissioned its first tile manufacturing facility in a joint venture with Andhra Pradesh-based Anjani Tiles Ltd.
Its bath studios and galleries cater to the premium sanitaryware segment. It has offices in Bangalore, Mumbai, Pune,
Chandigarh, Chennai, Cochin, Delhi, Hyderabad and Kolkata. It markets its products through 518 dealers and 5,264
retailers spread across the country.
Capex: CERA has chalked out an investment plan of Rs.200 million for tiles manufacturing through a joint venture at
Morbi. It has finalised a JV partner for manufacturing polished vitrified tiles (PVT) and glazed vitrified tiles (GVT) with
an initial capacity of 8,000-10,000 sq.mt. per day at an estimated investment of Rs.400 million, of which its own
exposure will be about Rs.80-100 million. Asset turnover is expected to be in the range of 1.5-1.8x. The management is
also scouting for another JV partner for manufacturing ceramic wall tiles.
CERA is setting up a new polymer plant to manufacture high quality PVC cisterns and seat covers at an estimated cost of
~Rs.230 million. With 51% stake in the joint venture, its equity investment in this project is expected to be ~Rs.60
million. It also plans to incur Rs.200 million maintenance capex for de-bottlenecking its sanitaryware and faucet plant,
Rs.50 million for buying land at Kadi, Rs.230 million for building a residential colony for its employees and Rs.260
million for opening a display centre and an office in Ahmadabad. It already incurred a capex of ~Rs.300 million in the
latest quarter increasing its retail touch points from 15,000 a year back to 18,000 now.
Key Concerns: (i) The building products industry is dominated by small unorganized players. Though consumers in
India are gravitating towards the organized segment and branded products, an increase in the competitive intensity
from the unorganized segment may be detrimental for CERA. However, the implementation of GST has removed the
cascading effect of interstate transfers creating a level-playing field for organised players. (ii) The demand for CERA’s
products is dependent on the real estate sector. Therefore, any extension of slowdown to Tier–I and Tier–II cities may
dampen its business prospects. (iii) The average gas cost for the quarter was 28% higher at Rs.22.5 per cubic meter v/s
Rs.17.56 per cubic meter last year.
Conclusion: We remain positive on CERA’s long-term prospects
given its strong brand equity and distribution network, changing Financials: (Rs. in crore)
consumer preferences towards premium lifestyle products, rising Particulars FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
disposable income, improving market conditions for the Sales 1006 1198 1326 1546
sanitaryware segment, contribution from the Anjani Tiles JV and
Expenses 865 1057 1134 1308
government initiatives like ‘Housing for All’, ‘Swachh Bharat
Abhiyan’, etc. The management has de-risked its growth strategy EBITDA 171 177 193 228
with an asset light business model, adopting the joint venture route PAT 97.3 106 106 129.6
in tiles. EPS (Rs.) 76.3 79.3 85 100
We value the stock on a P/E of 30x FY20E earnings. The stock
currently trades at Rs.2247.35 after making a Rs.52-week high of Rs.3516. We have a Buy on the stock with a price
target of Rs.3006 within a year.

STOCK WATCH

Deepak Nitrite Ltd


(BSE Code: 506401) (CMP: Rs.216.90) (FV: Rs.2)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Deepak Nitrite Ltd (DNL) is a chemical manufacturing company that offers Sodium Nitrite, 2 Ethyl Hexyl Nitrate and
Optical Brightening Agent (OBA). Its segments include Bulk Chemicals and Commodities (BCC); Fine and Speciality
Chemicals (FSC); and Fluorescent Whitening Agent (FWA). The BCC segment offers nitro tolunes, fuel additives and

A Time Communications Publication 6


sodium nitrite/nitrate. The FSC segment offers speciality chemicals, xylidines, oximes and cumidines. The FWA segment
offers diamino stilbene disulfonic acid (DASDA) and OBA. It also offers color intermediates. Its products find application
in various industries such as colorants, petrochemicals, agrochemicals, rubber, pharmaceuticals, paper, textile and
detergents. Its manufacturing facilities are located in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Telangana while its research and
development (R&D) facility is located in Gujarat.
DNL posted 22% higher revenue, led by a
strong performance in the ‘speciality
chemicals’ business coupled with significant One more successful year for
improvement in the ‘performance products’
business. The overall EBITDA margin came in
TF+ subscribers…
at 14.6% (up 57 bps YoY) due to a turnaround “Think Short-Term Investment…
in its performance products segment. Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS”
However, margins declined 121 bps
sequentially due to weakness in the margins of Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda column
the speciality and basic chemicals business that has recorded near 90% success since launch!
resulting in an EBITDA of Rs.66 crore. Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
DNL’s Deepak Phenolics plant has hit 85% sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome returns
utilization levels on a consistent basis and the against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
management expects utilization levels to hit
Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to our
90% in FY20, a year earlier than anticipated.
subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11 January
The management forecasts the base business
of the company to grow over 15% CAGR in the 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked 2-43% profit in 125
next couple of years. We believe that the stocks, 28 triggered the stop loss of 1-21%.
acetone-phenol plant is likely to drive the Of the 156 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 1
company into the next growth phase as the January 2018 (52 weeks), we booked 7-41% profit in 124 stocks, 30
cash flows from this business are likely to be triggered the stop loss of 2-18%.
used for capex for both downstream acetone
and phenol derivatives and expansion in the Of the 99 stocks recommended between 8 January 2018 and 20
speciality chemical business. August 2018 (33 weeks), we booked 3-41% profit in 61 stocks, 11
triggered the stop loss of 4-8% while 27 stocks are still open.
The acetone-phenol plant operated at an
average utilization of 85% in November and If you want to earn like this,
December 2018. Average spreads/cracks subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
(excluding power and fuel expenses) came in
For more details, contact Money Times on
at $600/MT and the plant registered sales,
022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
EBITDA and PBT of Rs.321 crore, Rs.37 crore
and Rs.12 crore respectively. The management Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
expects the plant to operate at 90% utilization 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
in FY20 as the production ramps up to optimal
utilization.
DNL’s performance products business has been poor in the past 4 years of operations. However, the management’s focus
on margin-driven growth led to a 50% YoY growth and a ~355 bps sequential margin rise to 18% EBIT margin in this
quarter. The growth was aided by a favourable demand-supply scenario, which led to an uptick in realizations. Its FSC
business also registered a strong growth of 21% with capacity expansions and better realizations in select products.
However, some deterioration in product mix led to a sequential margin dip of 279 bps in the segment. The BCC segment
registered 13% growth with margins normalizing sequentially to 15.4%.
DNL’s domestic business grew 29% YoY to Rs.293 crore on the back of better pricing and improved customer
acceptance for its products. Exports grew 10% to Rs.153 crore, driven by a stable demand environment. The
management expects the EBITDA margin in its base business to improve by 1% every year.
With the commencement of the acetone-phenol plant and strong growth in its base business, DNL is likely to benefit in
terms of better RoCE and free cash flows in the medium term. Our earnings estimates per share for FY19/FY20 are
Rs.10.3/22.8 respectively.
Technical Outlook: The DNL share looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has taken
support of the trading channel on the weekly chart, which resides at the 100 WMA. The stock trades below all important
moving averages like the 200 DMA level on the daily chart.

A Time Communications Publication 7


Start accumulating at this level of Rs.216.90 and on dips to Rs.190 for medium-to-long term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.275+ in the next 12 months.
******

GAIL (India) Ltd


(BSE Code: 532155) (CMP: Rs.317.90) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1984, New Delhi based GAIL (India) Ltd is a natural gas transmission company operating through the
following segments: Transmission Services; Natural Gas Marketing; Petrochemicals; LPG and Other Liquid
Hydrocarbons; and Others. It is involved in the transmission, distribution and marketing of natural gas to the power, city
gas distribution, fertilizer and other sectors. It sources, markets and trades in liquefied natural gas (LNG); markets
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), propane, naphtha, propylene, hydrogenated C4 mix, etc; and manufactures
petrochemicals such as high density polyethylene and linear low density polyethylene under the ‘G-Lex’ and ‘G-Lene’
brands. In addition, it operates a network of compressed natural gas (CNG) stations and provides piped natural gas
(PNG) to domestic, commercial and industrial applications. It has interests in ten exploration and production blocks in
Assam-Arakan, Cambay, Cauvery, Gujarat Kutch and Myanmar basins. Further, it offers long-term lease of dark fibre and
ducts, tower space and collocation facilities, point-to-point leased line bandwidth services and generates electric power
through a 118 MW wind power plant and a 11 MW solar power plant. Additionally, it is engaged in charter hiring of LNG
vessels. It operates ~11,500 km of natural gas pipelines, a 2,300 km LPG pipeline transmission network and 6 gas-
processing plants for the production of LPG, propane, pentane, naphtha, etc.
In Q3FY19, GAIL reported an EBITDA/ PAT of Rs.26.7 billion/ Rs.16.8 billion, up 36%/ 33% YoY, down 9%/ 14% QoQ.
Gas marketing EBIT came in at Rs.6.8 billion (down 35% QoQ on a very high base of Rs.10.4 billion in Q2) despite a spike
in Henry Hub gas prices and a decline in oil prices. Gas transmission recorded flat EBIT on higher expenses though
volumes grew 2% QoQ to 107.7 mmscmd.
In transmission, volume growth is expected to come from JHBDPL (Jagdishpur-Haldia & Bokaro-Dhamra Natural Gas
Pipeline), where anchor customers like new fertilizer plants will start gas off-take. The revised tariff proposal for the
HVJ–DVPL (Hazira–Vijaipur–Jagdishpur–Dahej-Vijaipur) grid has been submitted to the Petroleum & Natural Gas
Regulatory Board (PNGRB) and the order is expected any time. The Kochi-Mangalore pipeline will be operational from
June 2019.
GAIL has started producing metallocene (value-added) grade at Pata, which is expected to get a $150/MT premium and
have a volume share of up to 15%. The management expects to operate Pata-2 at 100% capacity in the coming year. The
Dabhol LNG breakwater tender will be awarded in two months though will take three years to commission. Q3/9M
capex was Rs.25.2/55 billion while Rs.64/70+ billion is FY19/20 guidance. The board declared an interim dividend of
Rs.6.25/share.
While Q3FY19 was challenging for the gas marketing and petchem segments, with Brent stabilizing at over $60/bbl and
Henry Hub back under $3/mmbtu, we expect trading margins to remain stable. We still build a conservative 20%+
decline in marketing EBITDA in FY20. The petchem segment is expected to see improved performance with better
capacity utilization and new grade aiding premiums, thereby leading to steady earnings growth. Higher oil prices should
also help besides improving LPG realizations. However, GAIL’s key trigger remains the impending tariff hike for the
HVJDVPL grid. While the company has sought very high rates, we build in a 30% hike and estimate average company
tariff to grow by ~20%.
Technical Outlook: The GAIL share looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has taken
support of the trading channel on the weekly chart, which resides at the 100 WMA. The stock trades below all important
moving averages like the 200 DMA level on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.317.90 and on dips to Rs.280 for medium-to-long term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.365+ in the next 12 months.

STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan
EPC Industrie Ltd: A good harvest
(BSE Code: 523754) (CMP: Rs.93.95) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1981, EPC Industries Ltd (EPCIN) is a Nasik-based company owned by the renowned $19 billion
Mahindra & Mahindra group (M&M) with controlling stake of 54.76%. M&M acquired EPCIN from the erstwhile

A Time Communications Publication 8


promoters in 2011. This was a related diversification (Farm-to-Fork model) for M&M in the agriculture space where it
has a major presence in machinery and services through the Farm Equipment sector.
EPCIN provides complete solution for agriculture with products of international standards and high focus on micro-
irrigation, pumps and inter-related requirements of fertigation and agronomic support through its strong network
across 15+ states. Its products include Drip Irrigation Systems, Sprinkler Irrigation Systems, Pumps, Pipes and
Landscape Turf Irrigation.
After its takeover by M&M, debt-saddled EPCIN with multiple challenges and liquidity constraints emerged stronger
than before wherein its top-line almost trebled while bottom-line rose 10x over the last five years despite the poor
monsoon and the worst drought in a few northern states. Market leader Jain Irrigation with 55% market share (market
size: Rs.2500 crore) still controls the micro-irrigation space but EPCIN is poised for phenomenal growth in the years
ahead.
By 2020, M&M could merge its entire agri-business into one single listed vertical viz FineGrade (Pulses), Saboro (Fruits,
Dairy), NuPro (Edible Oil) and other allied services and products with EPCIN and if that happens, EPCIN will become a
Rs.1000 crore company in the next three years. Accumulate the stock on dips for multibagger returns.
*****
MEP Infrastructure Developers Ltd: An attractive buy!
(BSE Code: 539126) (CMP: Rs.36.75) (FV: Rs.10)
Mumbai-based MEP Infrastructure Developers Ltd (MEP) is a leading infrastructure operator and toll management
company focused on serving central and state road authorities for managing, operating and maintaining their road
assets. With a presence across 12 states in India, it is an end-to-end service provider covering operate, maintain &
transfer (OMT) services, toll collection, BOT assets and construction of bridges. It maintains and operates roads,
highways, flyovers and bridges and also collects toll on behalf of its clients. Through its subsidiaries, it has completed 95
projects in 12 states, many of which are first of a kind, including 182 toll plazas and 1,086 lanes. It undertakes toll
collection at the Rajiv Gandhi Bandra-Worli Sea Link in Mumbai since 2009.
MEP launched its ~Rs.324 crore IPO in April 2015 priced at Rs.65/share to retire some debt and meet additional
working capital requirement. The stock is available at about 45% discount to its IPO price. For 9MFY19, it posted higher
net sales of Rs.2167.1 crore with PAT of Rs.39.97 crore and an EPS of Rs.2.2.
Based on its current going, MEP is likely to notch an EPS of Rs.3.5 for FY19 and Rs.4.5 for FY20, which translates into a
P/E of less than 12x. MEP is a good infrastructure stock available at a reasonable valuation. Considering its performance
in the last five quarters, slew of huge orders and management optimism, we recommend this stock for about 50%
returns in the next two years.

MARKET REVIEW

Markets turn bearish


By Devendra Singh
The Sensex fell 737.53 points to settle at 35808.95 while the Nifty closed at 10724.4 losing 219.2 points for the week
that ended on Friday, 15 February 2019.
Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) came in at 2.76% in January 2019. The wholesale food inflation rose to 1.84% in January
2019 from 0.07% in December 2018. Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Consumer Inflation stood at 2.05% (provisional) for
January 2019, its lowest level recorded since June 2017. The decline was due to a fall in food prices and smaller
increases in fuel costs. The RBI has maintained a medium-term goal of 4% for consumer inflation, which it tracks
primarily to formulate its policy.
The RBI slashed interest rates and shifted its stance to neutral from calibrated tightening to boost a slowing economy
after a sharp fall in the inflation rate. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the Repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25%.
According to Shaktikanta Das, RBI Governor, investment activity in the country is recovering but is supported mainly by
public spending on infrastructure. The need is to strengthen private investment activity and buttress private
consumption. The RBI has projected GDP growth to be in the range of 7.2-7.4% in H1FY20 and at 7.5% in Q3FY20 with
risks evenly balanced.
The government welcomed the apex bank’s decision to remove the restriction on Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs),
which capped their exposure in a single corporate at 20% of its corporate bond portfolio. The RBI withdrew this policy
in order to encourage a wider spectrum of investors to access the Indian corporate debt market.

A Time Communications Publication 9


FICCI’s latest quarterly survey report on manufacturing stated “On the hiring front, the outlook for the sector seems to
have slightly improved for near future. However, the outlook for exports is somewhat stable”.
The report further said that although the rupee had depreciated in the last few months, there was no significant increase
in exports.
“The cost of production as a
percentage of sales
manufacturers in the survey
for The new ratnas at Panchratna!
After the sad demise of Mr. G. S. Roongta on 2nd July 2017, we were at a loss to
has risen as per respondents.
replace our crown jewel. But so good is our team of analysts that their first five
This is significantly higher for
Q3FY18. This is primarily due issues of Panchratna have already clocked in results.
to higher cost of raw materials, Given below is their maiden score
wages, power cost, rising crude and we are sure this team will improve as we go along.
oil prices, increase in finance
cost and rupee depreciation,” Sr. Date Scrip Name Recom. Highest % Gain
the report added. No. Rate (Rs.) since (Rs.)
Further, Brent Oil hit fresh 1 October 2017 Stock A 74.50 147.80 98
2019 highs amid US sanctions Stock B 37.05 44.10 19
against Venezuela and Iran and Stock C 90.95 100 10
supply cuts led by the OPEC Stock D 77.70 94.40 21
(Organization of the Petroleum Stock E 41.70 83.85 101
Exporting Countries). Brent 2 January 2018 Stock F 74.80 86 15
crude prices crossed $65/ Stock G 42 44.80 7
Stock H 60.85 63.90 5
barrel for the first time this
Stock I 90.45 713.70 689
year. The international
Stock J 57.30 59.70 4
benchmark for oil prices is at a
3 April 2018 Stock K 54.55 63.10 16
near 3-month high and set for a
Stock L 29.95 37.75 26
4.5% gain this week. US West
Stock M 65.65 81.85 25
Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Stock N 99.70 125 25
crude oil prices were hovering
Stock O 143.05 186 30
at $55/barrel.
4 July 2018 Stock P 76.60 86 12
OPEC and some non-affiliated Stock Q 59.05 66.40 12
suppliers including Russia are Stock R 46.20 52.20 13
withholding supply in order to Stock S 48.45 54.50 12
tighten the market and prop up Stock T 82.10 99.05 21
prices. Russia has cut its oil 5 October 2018 Stock U 33.25 45 35
production by 80,000-90,000 Stock V 69.70 79.30 14
barrels per day (bpd), the Stock W 70.70 96.30 36
country’s energy minister said. Stock X 97.20 114.80 18
The producer group ‘OPEC Plus’ Stock Y 55.45 68.15 23
has agreed to cut crude output
by a joint 1.2 million bpd. Top The latest edition of ‘Panchratna’ was released on 1 January 2019.
exporter Saudi Arabia plans to So hurry up and book your copy now!
cut further next month than in Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 for two quarters & Rs.7000 per annum.
the deal. You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Key index tanked on Monday,
11 February 2019, on selling of
equities by market participants. The Sensex lost 151.45 points to close at 36395.03.
Key index declined further on Tuesday, 12 February 2019, on rising crude oil prices and US-China trade cues. The Sensex
lost 241.41 points to close at 36153.62.
Key index fell on Wednesday, 13 February 2019, on extended profit-booking. The Sensex lost 119.51 points to close at
36034.11.
Key index plunged on Thursday, 14 February 2019, amid US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and crude oil supply
cuts led by the OPEC. The Sensex lost 157.89 points to close at 35876.22.

A Time Communications Publication 10


Key index settled lower on Friday, 15 February 2019, due to a weak market sentiment. The Sensex lost 67.27 points to
close at 35808.95.
National and global macro-economic figures along with Brexit developments will dictate the movement of the markets
and influence investor sentiment in the near future. Market participants will closely watch the Indian rupee trend
against the US Dollar, which is currently hovering around 72.

FIFTY-FIFTY
By Rupesh Daga
Although the Sensex and Nifty are still trading close to their highs, the mid-cap and small-cap indices are going through a
bearish phase. Stocks of well-known companies have corrected anywhere between 30-50%. Investors who were ready to buy
at a P/E multiples of 25-30x in a bull market are scared to touch them at a throwaway multiple of just 10x. Although, it’s a
good time to accumulate good stocks, one may have to bear the pain of seeing a good 20% correction from the current
levels in a panic situation. Some stocks have already made a bottom while some are headed towards it in the mid-cap and
small-cap universe. So by all accounts, it’s a good time to buy. Given below are two stocks that merit investment.
Saksoft Ltd
(BSE Code: 590051) (CMP: Rs.263.95) (FV: Rs.10)
Saksoft Ltd is a leading player in providing digital transformation solutions to help businesses stay relevant in a highly
connected, rapidly evolving world. Saksoft is a niche technology specialist that provides a comprehensive suite of
business transformation, information management, application development and testing services. In short, Saksoft helps
its clients transform their business spaces. The company is headquartered in Chennai and has 12 offices across USA,
Europe and Asia employing over 1,000 people.
Saksoft has sought to expand its horizons and has acquired some of the fastest growing companies across the world. The
Saksoft group currently includes Acuma Solutions (UK) – A specialist in Information management solutions, 360 Logica
Solutions (India) – An expert independent testing company, EDP – A US based recruiting company, DreamOrbit – A
vibrant, Deloitte Fast 50 Company with IoT solutions expertise and most recently Faichi Solutions – a Healthcare Product
Engineering company. Banking, Credit Management, Retail, Automotive, e-Commerce, Public Sector, Logistics and
Supply Chain are some of the industries it caters to.
Its a promoter driven company with promoter and Founder/Chairman cum Managing Director Mr.Aditya Krishna,
spearheading Saksoft’s growth across domains and geographies. He brings with him over 30 years of experience in the
banking and financial services industry. After a long career with Chase Manhattan Bank in New York and later with
Citibank, New York, he relocated to India in 1990 as part of a four-member team to establish Citibank’s credit card
business in the country and was also instrumental in developing the in-house software to run the credit card operations.
He founded Saksoft in 1999 and drives the business development efforts. The promoter holding in the company stands
at close to 70%.
During Q3FY19, Saksoft posted an income of Rs.92 crore Consolidated Financials: (Rs. in crore)
with PAT of Rs.10.2 crore posting an EPS of Rs.9.8. The Particulars Q3FY19 Q3FY18 9MFY19 9MFY18
management has guided for 20-25% growth going
Revenue 92 75 264 207
forward and expects to continue the growth momentum
Operating EBITDA 13.4 9.49 38 24
witnessed in 9MFY18. On a conservative basis, the
company is expected to post an EPS of Rs.35 for the year PAT 10.2 7 27 16
as a whole. EPS (Rs.) 9.9 7.1 26.2 16.9
The stock trades at a P/E of 7.5x, which is cheap considering its growth prospects. Its competitor Sonata Software trades
at a P/E of 14x. A reasonable P/E of 10x can take its share price to Rs.350, which is nearly 30% upside from current
levels. We strongly recommend to buy the stock for the medium to long term horizon.
*****
Phillips Carbon Black Ltd
(BSE Code: 506590) (CMP: Rs.145.10) (FV: Rs.2)
The Indian Carbon Black market is set to grow at a robust CAGR on the back of expanding manufacturing facilities of tyre
manufacturers coupled with the implementation of anti-dumping duty on imports carbon of black. Carbon black is a
pure form of carbon majorly used as reinforcement filler in rubber goods, tyres, plastics and other products
manufacturing industries. Although, the growth in the automotive sector has slowed down but still growing in single
digits, the replacement demand for tyres is set to rise considerably due to the robust growth in automobiles the last 3-4
years.

A Time Communications Publication 11


RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group-owned Philips Carbon Black Ltd (PCBL) – is the sixth largest global producer of carbon black
and has a 40 % market share in India. PCBL has successfully turned around its operations and is now clocking healthy
Ebitda margins with core return ratios (RoE, RoCE) in excess of 25%, thereby traversing into a different orbit altogether
as against the perception of a commodity play in the past. Margins per ton are further likely to increase driven by the
mix shift towards speciality black, higher coal tar prices and anti-dumping on Chinese imports of rubber carbon black.
This would benefit local manufacturers using crude based CBFS as feedstock.
The company produces over 50+ grades of carbon black ranging from rubber to speciality black. It serves customers
with a complete portfolio of products across industries ranging from tyres, moulded rubber goods, plastics, coatings,
inks and other niche industries globally. The company markets speciality carbon black under the brand name – Royale
Black. It is one of the three carbon black producers in the world to meet the stringent USFDA requirements for
direct/indirect food contact plastic applications such as plastic food trays and cutleries. With its efficient supply chain
and distribution centre, the company has presence over 30 countries. It has warehouses located close to customer
locations. Most of the best known global tyre makers are its customers and the company has made its mark as one of the
key players in the speciality black segment.
In Q3FY19, the company registered the highest-ever PBT and PAT on account of a shift in product mix towards more
value added premium grades of carbon black. Revenue from operations grew 54% from Rs.618.78 crore in Q3FY18 to
Rs.949.61 crore in Q3FY19. PBT soared 99% from Rs.78.48 crore to Rs.156.3 crore while PAT soared 92% from Rs.56.6
crore to Rs.108.6 crore. EPS came in higher at Rs.6.3 v/s Rs.3.28 a year ago. Moreover, seeing the increased demand for
its products, the company is expanding its production capacity aggressively by 50%.It added 50,000 MT in Q3FY19 and
plans 30,000 MT by Q4FY19, and 1,50,000 MT by Q2FY20. Given the demand for carbon black, its expansion plans, debt
reduction and EPS growth, the stock could turn out to be a multibagger if all these play out well.
We recommend to buy the stock for the medium-to-long term horizon. The stock has corrected from its 52-week high of
Rs.287 to Rs.145 due to the broader market correction and specifically the correction in graphite electrode stocks.
However, it has no relation whatsoever with the graphite stocks and has been hammered unnecessarily. The stock is
now available at 5x its earnings. Also, if there was any doubt about its future earnings, the company would not have paid
an interim dividend of Rs.3.5 per share in the last quarter.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Cigniti Technologies Ltd: For good returns


(BSE Code: 534758) (CMP: Rs.328.05) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1998, Cigniti Technologies Ltd (CTL) (formerly Chakkilam Infotech Ltd) is engaged in the business of
software testing services and medical transcriptions. Led by C. V. Subramanyam (Chairman and Managing Director), CTL
has worked with companies in USA and India to deliver quality software through a combination of onsite consulting and
offshore delivery. Through 5 wholly-owned subsidiaries and 1 foreign branch, it offers functional testing, performance
testing, automation testing and security testing services. Its testing services cover test management, test automation and
tools, functional testing, non-functional testing and test environment management. Its transcription services include
medical transcription, business transcription and legal transcription. Its engineering services segment offers solutions in
computer aided design (CAD), computer aided machining (CAM) and computer aided engineering (CAE). Its services
mainly involve digitization of drawings into vector formats, 3D modelling, design and analysis. It serves various
industries including Airlines, Banking, Communications, Energy and Utilities (E&U), Financial Services, Insurance and
Retail.
CTL serves more than 200 clients across 13 countries with diversified verticals. It caters to 71 of the ‘Global 2000’
companies, 50+ of the ‘Fortune 1000’ companies and 49 of the ‘Fortune 500’ companies. It is a market leader in North
America.
CTL has helped enterprises and ISVs (independent software vendors) build quality software while improving time-to-
market and reducing cost of quality. It has translated its R&D into BlueSwan, the next generation and proprietary test
platform comprising 5 elements – Verita, Velocita, Cesta, Praxia and Prudentia. These elements complement the existing
QA (quality assurance) and QE (quality engineer) tools for enterprises. CTL has India’s first-of-its-kind Robotics Test
Lab, a Mobile Cloud Test Lab with HP and Experitest, a Cloud-enabled Performance Test Lab and an IoT and Smart Meter
Lab. With its current positioning and market leadership in QE, we believe that CTL is in a favourable spot in the
ecosystem and on an aggressive growth path.

A Time Communications Publication 12


FY18 was a significant year for CTL. In August 2018, it opened its fourth offshore delivery centre in Hyderabad. It has a
total area of around 2,00,000 sq.ft. that accommodates 2,100+ employees. Apart from digital transformation, the
management started focusing on operational excellence resulting in reduction of cost which in turn boosted margins.
For FY18, CTL posted PAT of Rs.32.2 crore v/s net loss of Rs.394.8 crore in FY17, which included an extraordinary one-
time write-off of Rs.332 crore for impairment of assets, provisions for gratuity and leave encashment and preliminary
expenditure. For Q3FY19, it reported 247% higher PAT of Rs.28.8 crore on 19% higher sales of Rs.210 crore and an EPS
of Rs.10.5. For 9MFY19, it posted 848% higher PAT of Rs.117.5 crore on 18% higher sales of Rs.610 crore and an EPS of
Rs.42.8.
CTL has an equity capital of
Rs.27.3 crore. The promoters hold
36.5% stake in the company,
MID-CAP TWINS: New promise & hope!
which leaves 63.5% stake with Mid-Cap Twins is now steered by Mr. Dildar Singh Makani,
other institutions and the a stock market veteran of over 30 years and an avid corporate watcher.
investing public. With net debt of He has several profitable investment ideas to his credit.
Rs.75 crore, its net DER works out
to 0.87:1. The value of its gross A fundamental analyst, Mr. Makani will hopefully reinvigorate Mid-Cap Twins to
block stood at Rs.69 crore. the high level Money Times products are known for.
According to Technavio, the Here’s the performance review of the stocks recommended since January 2018
software testing services market is Sr. Scrip Name Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
expected to grow to $68 billion by No. Date Price since (Rs.)
2022. The growing popularity of (Rs.)
crowdsource testing will be a 1 Stock A 01-01-18 59.25 71.90 21
major factor that will drive this 2 Stock B 01-01-18 72.85 82.20 13
growth. Crowdsource testing will 3 Stock C 01-02-18 234.90 302.90 29
continue to grow over the next few 4 Stock D 01-02-18 164.25 335 104
years as it help developers to 5 Stock E 01-03-18 575.15 635.25 10
identify defects and bugs, gain 6 Stock F 01-03-18 211.80 216.80 2
insights about product quality,
7 Stock G 01-04-18 45.80 58.20 27
obtain instant feedback about the
product and allow testing at lower
8 Stock H 01-04-18 51 57.35 12
costs. As a result, developers use it 9 Stock I 01-05-18 107.55 117.70 9
for user-centric applications such 10 Stock J 01-05-18 320.45 360 12
as games and e-commerce. 11 Stock K 01-06-18 46.9 76.60 63
CTL continues to win a sizable 12 Stock L 01-06-18 71.25 72.2 1
share of the global digital 13 Stock M 01-07-18 109.05 116 6
spending. It continues to invest in 14 Stock N 01-07-18 248.6 348 40
new age technologies such as 15 Stock O 01-08-18 433.4 433 -
DevOps, Agile, Digital, Cyber 16 Stock P 01-08-18 312.7 372.55 19
Security, IoT and Cloud computing. 17 Stock Q 01-09-18 575.5 667.75 16
Its IP-led testing infrastructure is 18 Stock R 01-09-18 252.2 257.75 2
proficient to satisfy its wide 19 Stock S 01-10-18 84 92.85 11
spectrum of clientele across 20 Stock T 01-10-18 236.4 368.35 56
domains and geographies. It 21 Stock U 01-11-18 233.4 257.4 10
adopts state-of-the-art digital
22 Stock V 01-11-18 951.25 1008 6
practices and assists companies to
actualize their business goals. It
23 Stock W 01-12-18 72.15 80 11
aims to penetrate into new 24 Stock X 01-12-18 357.50 393.60 10
geograph The next edition of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ will be released on 1 March 2019.
ies, win new clients across
industry and domains and further Happy reading & happier money making
strengthen its market leadership. as Mid-cap Twins enters its third year!
Based on its current going, CTL is Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20000 annually,
likely to notch an EPS of Rs.55 for ‘Mid-cap Twins’ will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
FY19. At the CMP of Rs.328.05, the

A Time Communications Publication 13


stock trades at a forward P/E of 6x. A conservative P/E of 10x will take its share price to Rs.550 in the medium term. The
stock’s 52-week high/low is Rs.499/225.
*****

Security & Intelligence Services (India) Ltd: For decent gains


(BSE Code: 540673) (CMP: Rs.751.65) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1985 by Ravindra Sinha and Rituraj Sinha, Security & Intelligence Services (India) Ltd (SIS) is a leading
security services company in India and Australia with leadership positions in cash logistics and facility management
services. It provides security solutions including planning and deployment of security guards, security officers, armed
guards, firemen, dog handlers, consulting, investigation works and command and control centre employees. It provides
paramedic and allied health, mobile patrol and fire rescue services, electronic security solution, alarm monitoring and
control, housekeeping and pest control services. Through 153 branches, its 1,06,860 security personnel service 3,000+
customers across 12,272 locations. Its key customers in India include businesses in varied sectors such as automobile,
BFSI, IT/ ITES and telecom, steel and heavy industries, government undertakings, hospitality and real estate, educational
institutions, healthcare, consumer goods, engineering and construction.
SIS tapped the capital market in July 2017 with an IPO of Rs.362.25 crore priced at Rs.815/share. Besides the fresh issue,
it also made an offer for sale (OFS) of 51.2 lakh equity shares by the selling shareholders. It raised Rs.350.8 crore from
18 anchor investors ahead of its IPO.
SIS derives its revenue from three major segments - security services (87.5%), cash logistics (3.8%) and facility
management services (8.7%). In the security services segment, security services (India) contributes 35% while security
services (Australia) contributes 53% of the total revenue. In the facility management segment, cleaning & facility
operation and management contributes 8.5% while pest control contributes 0.2% to the total revenue.
SIS ventured to Australia by acquiring Chubb Security Services business in August 2008. Between FY13 and FY17, its
revenue from operations from the security services business in Australia grew at 7.7% CAGR.
In June 2017, SIS signed definitive agreements to increase its voting rights in Southern Cross Protection Pty Ltd (SXP)
from 10% to 51% with effect from 1 July 2017. The company, through its 100% subsidiary (SIS Australia Group)
acquired an additional 41% of the voting rights in SXP. As a result, SXP is now its subsidiary.
SIS provides a full range of services across all market segments in Australia ranging from providing trained security
personnel for general guarding to specialized security roles. It provides static guarding including access control and
control room monitoring, aviation and maritime screening, centralized video surveillance, alarm monitoring and
response, roving and mobile patrols, escort guards, emergency response, planning, first aid and medical support, traffic
management, customer service security training, risk analysis, consulting, concierge and event management services. It
provides security services to several government organizations in Australia. It derived ~43% of its revenue from its top
ten customers in Australia.
SIS has entered into strategic relationships with several multinational companies. It entered into a JV with the affiliates
of Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A (Prosegur), a global player in cash management and alarm monitoring, for its
cash logistics and alarm monitoring and response businesses. It also entered into a JV with an affiliate of Terminix
International Company, L.P. (Terminix), a multinational provider of termite and pest control services.
SIS had raised ~Rs.1000 crore through a pre-IPO, IPO placement and funding from an Australian bank for non-organic
growth through mergers and acquisitions in 2017. The acquisitions were aimed at establishing its leadership credentials
in the security management space.
For FY18, SIS posted 49% higher PAT of Rs.163 crore on 33% higher income of Rs.5833 crore and a consolidated EPS of
Rs.22.3. For Q2FY19, it posted 27% higher PAT of Rs.59 crore on 19% higher income of Rs.1837 crore and an EPS of
Rs.8. For 9MFY19, it posted 12% higher PAT of Rs.142 crore on 21% higher income of Rs.5138 crore and an EPS of
Rs.19.6.
With an equity capital of Rs.73.2 crore and reserves of Rs.955 crore, SIS’ share book value works out to Rs.140.5 as at
FY18. Total debts were Rs.827 crore. Cash amounted to Rs.543 crore whereas other financial assets including loans
given were Rs.1148 crore. The value of its gross block is Rs.798 crore. The promoters hold 75.4% of the equity capital,
foreign entities hold 14.3%, DIs hold 5.6% and PCBs hold 1.2%, which leaves 3.5% with the investing public.
The ~Rs.40000 crore private security industry in India is expected to grow exponentially at 20% CAGR. SIS’ strong
pipeline in its security business coupled with its acceleration in the facility management business give strong visibility
for the rest of the year. SIS is the second largest security services provider in India and is just Rs.300-400 crore smaller

A Time Communications Publication 14


than its largest competitor in revenue terms. The management is focused on improving its margin profile in line with
those reported by its competitor.
SIS is set to notch an EPS of Rs.28 for FY19. At the CMP of Rs.751.65, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 27x on FY19E
earnings. Given the bright industry prospects, the stock has the potential to cross Rs.980 in the medium term on a
forward P/E of 35x. The stock’s 52-week high/ low is Rs.1405/Rs.727.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel

Maharashtra Seamless Ltd


(BSE Code: 500265) (CMP: Rs.459.05) (FV: Rs.5)
Incorporated in 1988, Maharashtra Seamless Ltd (MSL) manufactures steel pipes and tubes. It operates through two
segments: (i) Steel Pipes and Tubes; and (ii) Power - Electricity. It offers electric resistance welding (ERW) pipes
including mild steel (MS) and galvanized pipes conforming to American Petroleum Institute (API) specifications;
seamless pipes such as hot finished pipes and tubes, cold drawn tubes and boiler tubes; coated pipes including three
layer polyethylene coating, fusion bonded epoxy coating, internal coating and three layer polypropylene and pipe
fittings. Its plant has a capacity to produce 5,50,000 TPA of carbon and alloy steel hot finished and cold finished seamless
pipes with sizes ranging from 10.3 millimeters (mm) to 508 mm. Its ERW pipes manufacturing plant can produce
2,00,000 TPA of pipes. It has a 7 MW wind power plant and a 11 MW solar power generating plant in Maharashtra
besides a 25 MW solar power plant in Rajasthan aggregating 43 MW of renewal energy resource.
MSL has an equity capital of Rs.33.5 crore supported by reserves of around Rs.3078.23 crore. The promoters hold
61.78% of the equity capital, Mutual Funds hold 7.59%, which leaves 27.46% stake with the investing public.
For Q3FY19, MSL posted 139% higher PAT of Rs.92.77
Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
crore on 40% higher sales of Rs.785.88 crore and an
EPS of Rs.13.8. For 9MFY19, it posted 156% higher Particulars Q3FY19 Q3FY18 9MFY19 9MFY18 FY18
PAT of Rs.281.61 crore on 37% higher sales of Sales 785.88 562.19 2096.14 1524.59 2175.1
Rs.2096.14 crore and an EPS of Rs.42. Its 9MFY19 PAT PBT 142.70 56.84 436.28 169.41 290.39
is 34% higher than the PAT recorded for FY18. It paid Tax 49.93 18.07 154.67 59.41 91.95
120% dividend for FY18. PAT 92.77 38.77 281.61 110 210.72
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 8.2x and looks EPS (Rs.) 13.85 5.79 42.03 16.42 31.45
attractive at this level based on its performance parameters. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.425. On
the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.575-625 in the medium-to-long term.
*****

Meghmani Organics Ltd


(BSE Code: 532865) (CMP: Rs.50.45) (FV: Re.1)
Incorporated in 1986, Ahmedabad-based Meghmani Organics Ltd (MOL) manufactures and sells pigments and
pesticides. It operates three divisions: Pigments, Agrochemicals and Basic Chemicals. The Pigments division offers
phthalocynine green 7, copper phthalocynine blue, alpha blue and beta blue pigments, which find application in printing
inks, plastics, paints, textiles, leather, paper and rubber. The Agrochemicals division is engaged in the manufacture and
sale of technical, intermediates and formulations of insecticides, fungicides and herbicides, which are used in crop
protection, public health, termite and insect control and veterinary applications. It offers its formulations under the
following brands - Megastar, Megacyper, Megaban, Synergy and Courage. The Basic Chemicals division manufactures
caustic chlorine and caustic potash, which are used in agriculture sector and also directly by consumers.
MOL is among the top 3 Phthalocyanine-based pigment players globally and one of the largest producers of pesticides in
India. It is the 4th largest caustic-chlorine player and one of the lowest cost producers of caustic soda in India. It has 7
manufacturing facilities in Gujarat. It offers its products through direct sales teams and distributors/agents in North
America, Europe, Central and Latin America and the Asia Pacific. It exports to 75 countries. It is also involved in trading
activities.
MOL has an equity capital of Rs.25.43 crore supported by reserves of Rs.861.61 crore. The promoters hold 50.68% of the
equity capital, FIIs hold 2.47%, which leaves 46.85% stake with the investing public. The promoters have increased their
stake by 0.37% in Q3. With a share book value of Rs.43, its P/BV ratio stands at just 1.2x.

A Time Communications Publication 15


For Q3FY19, MOL posted 23% higher sales of
Rs.552.34 crore with 52% PAT of Rs.66.08 crore and Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
an EPS of Rs.2.6. For 9MFY19, It posted 53% higher Particulars Q3FY19 Q3FY18 9MFY19 9MFY18 FY18
PAT of Rs.184.48 crore on 12% higher sales of Sales 552.34 450.43 1530.23 1372.15 1843.17
Rs.1530.23 crore and an EPS of Rs.7.3. Its 9MFY19 PBT 116.94 84.40 309.94 226.08 325.71
PAT is 8% higher than the PAT recorded for FY18. It Tax 37.54 21.79 91.71 65.05 87.78
paid 40% dividend for FY18. PAT 66.08 43.37 184.48 120.92 171.47
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 5.5x and is EPS (Rs.) 2.61 1.71 7.27 4.76 6.74
available at 56% discount to its 52-week high of
Rs.114.4. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.40. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.135-150 levels in
the medium-to-long term.

BULL’S EYE

IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd


(BSE Code: 524164) (CMP: Rs.196.75) (FV: Rs.10)
By Pratit Nayan Patel
We first recommended this stock at Rs.63.80 on 30 October 2017. At that time, the broader markets were in a bear grip and
most stocks were available 50-70% below their January 2018 high. IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals has delivered 258%
returns in 15 months! We recommend this stock once again based on its excellent Q3FY19 results.
Company Background: Established in 1986, IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd (IOLCP) is a leading generic
pharmaceutical company and a significant player in the Organic Chemicals space. It operates through two segments:
Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals.
Chemicals: IOLCP is a major manufacturer in the speciality organic chemical space. It is one of the largest producers of
Ethyl Acetate (87,000 TPA) and ISO Butyl Benzene (IBB) in India with over 30% of the global market share and a major
player in Ibuprofen. It has forward-integrated this vertical to the pharmaceutical segment with end products such as
Ethyl Acetate, IBB, MCA and Acetyl Chloride used as key raw materials for Ibuprofen. It plans to explore its presence in
other industries such as paints, flexible packaging and glass. In line with this approach, it has added many MNC giants to
its customer base.
Pharmaceuticals: With a presence in 56 countries, IOLCP has established itself as a major player in Ibuprofen with
~30% of the global capacity. It is the world's only backward-integrated Ibuprofen producer (10,000 TPA) that
manufactures all intermediates and key starting materials at one location. It has augmented its pharma business by
moving up the value- chain with entry into lifestyle drugs for pain management, anti-depressant, anti-diabetic, anti-
platelet and anti-convulsion. IOLCP’s Ibuprofen plant is USFDA and EUGMP certified by the National Institute of
Pharmacy and Nutrition, Hungary. It contributes 85% to the total revenue of its Pharma division.
IOLCP is diversifying its API product portfolio. It has commercialized 6 APIs while 10 are in the advanced stage of
development. Besides its multipurpose plant, it has a 17 MW power generation plant for captive consumption with
adequate backups for trouble-free operations. Its R&D lab is DSIR approved and is fully equipped to validate the existing
processes.
Financials: IOLCP has an equity capital of Rs.56.21 crore supported by reserves of Rs.212.34 crore. The promoters hold
41.19% of the equity capital, which leaves 58.81% stake with the investing public. On 9 January 2019, pension fund
‘Oregon Public Employees Retirement System’ bought 3,03,706 shares at Rs.196.88/share.
The management announced a preferential issue of Financials: (Rs. in crore)
25,00,000 convertible warrants to M/s Towel Enterprises
Ltd (promoter company) at Rs.205/warrant with an Particulars Q3FY19 Q3FY18 9MFY19 9MFY18
option for the holder of such warrants to subscribe to 1 Total Income 478.29 262.68 1263.04 713.44
equity share of Rs.10 for every warrant held within 18 PBT 115.13 9.56 193.63 18.57
months from the date of allotment of the warrants. IOLCP
Tax 32.89 0.76 58.58 2.36
will utilize ~Rs.200 crore to fund its proposed expansion
plan of setting up two new plants for new products by PAT 82.24 8.80 135.05 16.21
next year. EPS (Rs.) 14.63 1.56 24.03 2.88

A Time Communications Publication 16


Performance Review: For FY18, IOLCP posted 493% higher PAT of Rs.27.7 crore on 30% higher sales of Rs.1000.96
crore and an EPS of Rs.4.9. For Q3FY19, it posted 835% higher PAT of Rs.82.24 crore on 82% higher sales of Rs.478.29
crore and an EPS of Rs.14.6 (cash EPS: Rs.17.6). For 9MFY19, it posted 733% higher PAT of Rs.135.05 crore on 77%
higher sales of Rs.1263.04 crore and an EPS of Rs.24 (cash EPS: Rs.31.4). Its top-line and bottom-line have grown
steadily since the past 11 quarters.
Rising Ibuprofen prices, huge demand-supply gap and plant closure by BASF: BASF’s plant is located at Bishop in
Texas and its capacity of ~5,000 TPA is half of IOLCP’s. At the beginning of the first quarter, BASF had shut down this
plant due to technical reasons, which took away almost 1/6th of the global production capacity off the grid. The plant
hasn’t resumed operations yet. BASF mostly caters to the US markets, where IOLCP is absent. Therefore, even if the plant
resumes operations, there will be no price competition. With no capacity addition seen globally, Ibuprofen prices have
tightened due to demand-supply mismatch. At the end of FY18, the demand for Ibuprofen was ~35,000 TPA while the
global capacity was ~28,000 TPA. In view of the rising demand, BASF has planned a mega Ibuprofen plant in Germany,
which is likely to commence operations in 2022. With the demand-supply situation stabilizing, Ibuprofen prices will also
stabilize.
The management recently announced a Rs.2.71 crore capex plan to enhance its existing manufacturing facilities of
Metformin (Unit IV) from 3,000 TPA to 4,000 TPA. Further, it has completed its 180 TPA Unit V project, which was set up
to manufacture Clopidogrel Bisulphate and Fenofibrate at capex of Rs.19.26 crore. Both the projects were funded
through internal accruals.
Conclusion: IOLCP is expanding its API product portfolio and improving cost competitiveness through efficient
manufacturing processes and systems and growing relationships with major Indian and foreign generic companies for
the sale of APIs. Its APIs are exported worldwide and the key markets include Europe, Latin America, Africa and the
Middle East. Ethyl Acetate has varied uses in different industries like pharmaceuticals, flexible packaging and printing
ink manufacturing, paints and adhesives, etc. Its key markets in chemicals are African countries, Middle East, SAARC
countries and Russia. IOLCP has undertaken expansion plans to meet the fast-growing demand for its products.
Vinati Organics Ltd and IOLCP are the only two major manufacturers of ISO Butyl Benzene (IBB) in the world, which is a
primary raw material for Ibuprofen. Both the companies have increased the prices of IBB, which could affect the margins
of Ibuprofen manufacturers except for IOLCP since it is a backward integrated player.
Currently, the stock trades at just 7.6x. Investors can accumulate the stock with a stop loss of Rs.150 for a price target of
Rs.370-450 in the next 18-24 months. The stock’s 52-week high/low is Rs.225.4/ Rs.70.45. Its market cap stands at
Rs.1105.8 crore. The stock is a potential multibagger!

Early Bird Gains – A Performance Review


Early Bird Gains (EBG), our newsletter specializing in multi-baggers, has performed well for the
last 15 years. Here’s the performance review of the 52 stocks featured between 27th September 2017
and 26th September 2018.
Issue Date of Recomm. Highest Gain
Scrip Name
No. Recomm. Price (Rs.) since (Rs.) %
1 GHCL 27-09-17 210.55 357.50 70
2 Gitanjali Gems 04-10-17 67.20 104.80 56
3 Vivimed Labs 11-10-17 132.85 137.25 3
4 Mangalam Organics 18-10-17 86 510 493
5 Kriti Nutrients 25-10-17 23 56.95 148
6 Premier Explosives 01-11-17 427.70 536.25 25
7 N.R. Agarwal Industries 08-11-17 297.80 615.85 107
8 Sintex Industries 15-11-17 25.20 28 11
9 Larsen & Toubro Infotech 22-11-17 975.85 1469.60 51
10 KPIT Technologies 29-11-17 177.70 314.80 77
11 Talwalkar Better Value Fitness 06-12-17 302.15 358.05 18
Security and Intelligence Services
12 13-12-17 1261.25 1404.80
(India) 11
13 Elnet Technologies 20-12-17 190.40 204 7

A Time Communications Publication 17


14 Kellton Tech Solutions 27-12-17 103.10 137 33
15 Lupin 03-01-18 875.70 986 13
16 International Paper APPM 10-01-18 383.35 591.15 54
17 Star Paper Mills 17-01-18 293.10 318.20 8
18 Steel Strips Wheels 24-01-18 1124.30 1473.70 31
19 Yes Bank 31-01-18 353.45 404 14
20 Lincoln Pharmaceuticals 07-02-18 215.10 314 46
21 Dewan Housing Finance Corporation 14-02-18 524.55 690 31
22 Just Dial 21-02-18 439.30 637.80 45
23 Jindal Poly Films 28-02-18 351.60 362.55 3
24 KSE 07-03-18 2497.55 4000 60
25 Rico Auto Industries 14-03-18 71.60 87.25 22
26 Virinchi 21-03-18 105.60 137 30
27 Honeywell Automation India 28-03-18 16466 24178 47
28 Jay Bharat Maruti 04-04-18 482.85 528.90 9
29 Bodal Chemicals 11-04-18 137.10 156.25 14
30 Simmonds Marshall 18-04-18 125.80 154.90 23
31 Mahanagar Gas 25-04-18 908.35 984.40 8
32 Hinduja Global Solutions 02-05-18 957.05 974.75 2
33 Mishra Dhatu Nigam 09-05-18 135.55 160.40 18
34 Pondy Oxides & Chemicals 16-05-18 414.10 452.70 9
35 Manaksia 23-05-18 54.90 60 9
36 RACL Geartech 30-05-18 65.40 75.50 15
37 Sintex Industries 06-06-18 15.05 17.85 19
38 Natco Pharma 13-06-18 791.95 849 7
39 UFO Moviez India 20-06-18 366.60 396 8
40 Sharda Cropchem 27-06-18 365.45 424 16
41 Vindhya Telelinks 04-07-18 1008.55 1698.80 68
42 Pix Transmissions 11-07-18 174.40 284.40 63
43 Meghmani Organics 18-07-18 86.80 99.05 14
44 Federal Bank 25-07-18 87.70 92.75 6
45 Everest Industries 01-08-18 486.15 597.50 23
46 Rites 08-08-18 275.25 326.55 19
47 International Paper APPM 15-08-18 459.45 591.15 29
48 Patel Engineering 22-08-18 52.30 53 1
49 Jindal Poly Films 29-08-18 280.15 324.95 16
50 Shreyans Industries 05-09-18 179.30 202.35 13
51 Eimco Elecon (India) 12-09-18 368.65 390 6
52 Jasch Industries 19-09-18 62.30 67 7
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A Time Communications Publication 18


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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
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A Time Communications Publication 19


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A Time Communications Publication 20

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