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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVIII No.16 Monday, 18 – 24 February 2019 Pgs.18 Rs.20
Nifty respects the support level of Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
10625 Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
to get a view of the stock market and the
By Sanjay R. Bhatia happenings which many may not be aware of.
The nervousness in the markets led to increased selling pressure
last week. Sustained selling pressure was seen across the board and the markets failed to offer any resilience due to lack
of buying support.
The FIIs turned large sellers in the cash and derivatives segment. The DIIs, however, turned net buyers once again and
were seen supporting the markets at the lower levels. The breadth of the market favoured declines amidst high volumes,
which is a negative sign for the markets.
On the domestic front, the earnings season which has almost
come to an end has been largely disappointing. The CPI and WPI
Believe it or not!
numbers continued the downward trajectory while the IIP Despite the 737.5 points fall in the Sensex last
numbers remained dismal. Crude oil prices rallied during the week, the following five stocks have given
week with Brent Crude Futures making a new high in 2019 positive returns!
amid US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran and supply cuts
led by the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Hitech Corporation recommended at Rs.93.60
Countries). in TF last week, jumped 7% to Rs.100.25 in
Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions just 1 week!
weighed on the market sentiment. The KST and RSI are both Balkrishna Paper Mills recommended at
placed below their respective averages on the daily and weekly Rs.36.40 in SB last week, jumped 6% to
charts. Further, the MACD is placed below its average on the Rs.38.45 in just 1 week!
daily chart while the Stochastic is placed below its average on Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail recommended
the weekly chart. Moreover, the Nifty is placed below its key
at Rs.212.35 in BB last week, rose 4% to
averages i.e. 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day
SMA is still placed below its 200-day SMA, signaling a ‘Death Rs.220.70 in just 1 week!
Cross’ breakdown. All these negative technical conditions could Gujarat Ambuja Exports recommended at
lead to intermediate bouts of selling pressure, especially at the Rs.229.95 in BE last week, rose 2% to
higher levels. Rs.235.50 in 1 week!
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however, still hold V-Guard Industries recommended at Rs.192
good. The Stochastic is placed above its average and in the in SW last week, rose 2% to Rs.196.70 in 1
oversold territory on the daily chart. Further, the MACD is week!
placed above its average on the weekly chart. Moreover, the
Nifty is placed above its 100-day SMA. These positive technical (BB – Best Bet; BE – Bull’s Eye; SB – Stock Buzz;
conditions could lead to regular short-covering and buying SW- Stock Watch; TF – Techno Funda)
support at the lower levels.
This happens only in Money Times!
The -DI line has once again moved above the +DI line and is th Now in its 28 Year
A Time Communications Publication 1
placed above 32, which indicates that the sellers are gaining strength. The ADX line continues to languish around 13,
which indicates that the current move lacks strength. The market sentiment remains nervous and fluid, especially with
the latest terrorist attack on army convoys and possible
retaliatory measures on Pakistan by the Indian army.
Although the Nifty breached the support level of 10625
on Friday, it managed to close above 10710, which
augurs well for the markets. It is important for the Nifty
to sustain above 10625 for selling pressure to ease and
to move higher to test the resistance level of 10814. If
the Nifty fails to sustain above 10625, further selling
pressure is likely and it could fall further to test the
support range of 10526-10488.
Meanwhile, the markets will take cues from the news
flow and aftermath of the Pulwana attacks, Dollar-
Rupee exchange rate, global markets and crude oil
prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 36350, 36602, 37165, 37490 and 38125 levels and seeks support at the
35606, 35400, 35187, 34748, 34344, 33723 and 33349 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 10710,
10756, 10814, 10843, 10942, 11008, 11146 and 11350 while its support levels are placed at 10625, 10589, 10526,
10488 and 10333.
BAZAR.COM
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
The sideways volatility phase continues since November 2018. Alternate week up and down movement has been
witnessed around the WRV. The oscillation around the WRV has been in the range of 2-4% on either side. Either this
volatility will continue for the next couple of months or it might indicate a strong breakdown for Wave c structure to test
back 33291.
Last week, the Sensex opened at 36585.50 and hit a high
at 36588.41. The Sensex fell to 35510.96 and closed the
week at 35808.94 and thereby showed a net fall of 737
points on a week-to-week basis.
Daily Chart
A swing top was formed on 07-02-19 at 37172 which
was confirmed on 08-02-19, with a gap down bearish
candle making a lower high and lower low.
Since then, a lower high and lower low continued with a
bearish candle or negative candle for 5 trading days
back to back.
The last swing bottom was at 35375 with the demand
zone of 35734-35375. The low on Friday was 35510 and
closed at 35808.
Following are the 4 demand zones and the Sensex must respect any of the demand zones as shock absorbers.
1) 35734-355375 2)35744-35382 3) 35711-35010 4) 35207-34426
Mostly, we find 35000 as the common subset of all the demand zones.
If the rise from the low of 33291 to 36446 is Wave (a) on the daily chart then Wave (b) is in progress with double
combination- the triangle got completed at 35382. Wave x ended at 36701. Next combination is under progress with a
flat or expanding triangle. If it’s flat, then it could end at the current level of Friday’s low of 35510 or at 35010. If it is an
expanding triangle then Wave d will end at similar level of 35510 to 35010 for a rise which may extend to 37172 or
above for Wave d. Subsequently Wave e will fall back down to 35000 or below. The expanding triangle can be a roller
coaster whereas if it is flat then the end will have to be around 35510-35010 and form Wave (b) for the rally to exceed
37172 to test the peak of 38989.
On the daily chart, a bounce is likely form the current level or from the lower level of 35000.
However a resistance hangs overhead on pullback rallies.
Weekly Chart
Considering on the weekly chart the broader structural scenario, the Sensex is threatening for Wave C slide to test
33291-32483. The chart development appears to be the right shoulder and a follow up breakdown below 35300 with
bearish candle at the end of the week can seal the slide to 33291-32483. The neckline development is around 34000 but
the zone of 33291-32483 may be tested if 35300 is violated on weekly closing with a bearish candle.
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
WIPRO 375.55 368.5 369.6 374.5 380.5 391.5 62.8 368.1 11/1/2019
ADITYA BIRLA FASHION 217.45 209.5 211.1 215.9 222.3 233.5 62.2 209.8 1/2/2019
BATA INDIA 1254.00 1177.0 1193.0 1238.0 1299.0 1405.0 61.8 1178.5 8/2/2019
BAJAJ HOLDING 3153.00 3075.0 3093.0 3135.0 3195.0 3297.0 56.5 3011.3 8/2/2019
IPCA LABORATORIES 775.00 725.0 740.3 759.7 794.3 848.3 50.8 762.5 15/02/19
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
GRAPHITE INDIA 429.25 294.5 387.0 437.3 479.5 487.5 22.70 506.01 22/11/18
VEDANTA LIMITED 147.45 130.8 142.9 150.5 155.0 158.0 22.72 164.69 1/2/2019
NATIONAL ALUMINIUM C 48.70 32.2 44.0 51.0 55.8 58.1 23.02 56.98 18/01/19
BIRLA CORPORATION 450.85 408.6 439.6 459.3 470.6 479.0 23.04 480.07 4/1/2019
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
EXIT LIST
Note: R1- (Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close R1 R2 R3 SA S1 Monthly RS
TOWER TALK
The RBI has not found any divergence in the asset classification and provisioning done by Yes Bank in 2017-18. A
big positive for the bank. Buy.
GAIL (India) posted a higher EPS of Rs.7.5 for Q3FY19 v/s Rs.5.6 for Q3FY18. Buy.
Ultramarine & Pigments continues to report higher revenues this quarter. Its 9MFY19 earnings have already
crossed FY18 earnings. Accumulate.
With railway revenues expected to grow by about Rs.20000 crore, infra spending is likely to pick pace. Buy
Texmaco Rail Engineering, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Ircon International and Titagarh Wagons.
Bajaj Electricals is back on the fast track with 73% higher PAT for Q3. Buy.
Oberoi Realty, which recently raised Rs.1200 crore via a QIP, utilised the funds to buy large land parcels at bargain
prices. Buy for about 40% returns within a year.
Tata Steel posted 54% higher consolidated PAT for Q3 at Rs.1753 crore. A worthy buy.
Rolta India has lost half its net worth in the last one month alone. It makes a good contrarian bet at less than
Rs.4/share. The stock’s 52-week high is Rs.80.
Market participants seem to have ignored the good set of numbers posted by Mahindra & Mahindra for Q3 given
its big expansion plans, farmer-supportive interim budget and increase in rural spending, all these factors make
this stock an excellent buy.
Very few stocks have held firm in the current volatile markets and Indian Oil Corporation is one such share.
Accumulate.
Radico Khaitan posted 49% higher PAT for Q3 and is likely to launch new products. Accumulate.
The cement boom is around the corner. J.K. Lakshmi Cement posted 72% higher PAT for Q3 on 12% higher
income. Buy.
Gujarat-based Atul Auto posted a good set of numbers for Q3. Its 9MFY19 earnings are almost equal to its FY18
earnings. With improving fundamentals, its prospects look good. Buy.
Spice Jet’s Q3 PAT has fallen sharply by 77% in spite of a spurt in revenues. Sell immediately.
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise has crashed on the back of pledged shares worries. Sell immediately to avoid further
losses.
Great Eastern Shipping posted 3x higher PAT at Rs.299 crore. Its prospects look good. Buy.
Corporation Bank has finally turned around with Rs.60.5 crore PAT for Q3 v/s a loss of Rs.1240.5 crore in the
previous corresponding quarter. A good contrarian buy at the current beaten down level.
Coal India posted 50% higher PAT of Rs.4567 crore and declared an interim dividend of Rs.9. Accumulate.
Godrej Industries Q3 PAT doubled to Rs.121.28 crore. Buy with a two-year perspective.
Financially stressed Hotel LeelaVenture seems to have come out of its woes. Buy for the long term.
L&T Hydrocarbon, a subsidiary of Larsen & Toubro (L&T), has obtained a Rs.7700 crore worth order from Algerias
Sonatrach for setting up 3 central processing facilities. Buy L&T.
An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, Manappuram Finance and REC.
STOCK WATCH
STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan
EPC Industrie Ltd: A good harvest
(BSE Code: 523754) (CMP: Rs.93.95) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1981, EPC Industries Ltd (EPCIN) is a Nasik-based company owned by the renowned $19 billion
Mahindra & Mahindra group (M&M) with controlling stake of 54.76%. M&M acquired EPCIN from the erstwhile
MARKET REVIEW
FIFTY-FIFTY
By Rupesh Daga
Although the Sensex and Nifty are still trading close to their highs, the mid-cap and small-cap indices are going through a
bearish phase. Stocks of well-known companies have corrected anywhere between 30-50%. Investors who were ready to buy
at a P/E multiples of 25-30x in a bull market are scared to touch them at a throwaway multiple of just 10x. Although, it’s a
good time to accumulate good stocks, one may have to bear the pain of seeing a good 20% correction from the current
levels in a panic situation. Some stocks have already made a bottom while some are headed towards it in the mid-cap and
small-cap universe. So by all accounts, it’s a good time to buy. Given below are two stocks that merit investment.
Saksoft Ltd
(BSE Code: 590051) (CMP: Rs.263.95) (FV: Rs.10)
Saksoft Ltd is a leading player in providing digital transformation solutions to help businesses stay relevant in a highly
connected, rapidly evolving world. Saksoft is a niche technology specialist that provides a comprehensive suite of
business transformation, information management, application development and testing services. In short, Saksoft helps
its clients transform their business spaces. The company is headquartered in Chennai and has 12 offices across USA,
Europe and Asia employing over 1,000 people.
Saksoft has sought to expand its horizons and has acquired some of the fastest growing companies across the world. The
Saksoft group currently includes Acuma Solutions (UK) – A specialist in Information management solutions, 360 Logica
Solutions (India) – An expert independent testing company, EDP – A US based recruiting company, DreamOrbit – A
vibrant, Deloitte Fast 50 Company with IoT solutions expertise and most recently Faichi Solutions – a Healthcare Product
Engineering company. Banking, Credit Management, Retail, Automotive, e-Commerce, Public Sector, Logistics and
Supply Chain are some of the industries it caters to.
Its a promoter driven company with promoter and Founder/Chairman cum Managing Director Mr.Aditya Krishna,
spearheading Saksoft’s growth across domains and geographies. He brings with him over 30 years of experience in the
banking and financial services industry. After a long career with Chase Manhattan Bank in New York and later with
Citibank, New York, he relocated to India in 1990 as part of a four-member team to establish Citibank’s credit card
business in the country and was also instrumental in developing the in-house software to run the credit card operations.
He founded Saksoft in 1999 and drives the business development efforts. The promoter holding in the company stands
at close to 70%.
During Q3FY19, Saksoft posted an income of Rs.92 crore Consolidated Financials: (Rs. in crore)
with PAT of Rs.10.2 crore posting an EPS of Rs.9.8. The Particulars Q3FY19 Q3FY18 9MFY19 9MFY18
management has guided for 20-25% growth going
Revenue 92 75 264 207
forward and expects to continue the growth momentum
Operating EBITDA 13.4 9.49 38 24
witnessed in 9MFY18. On a conservative basis, the
company is expected to post an EPS of Rs.35 for the year PAT 10.2 7 27 16
as a whole. EPS (Rs.) 9.9 7.1 26.2 16.9
The stock trades at a P/E of 7.5x, which is cheap considering its growth prospects. Its competitor Sonata Software trades
at a P/E of 14x. A reasonable P/E of 10x can take its share price to Rs.350, which is nearly 30% upside from current
levels. We strongly recommend to buy the stock for the medium to long term horizon.
*****
Phillips Carbon Black Ltd
(BSE Code: 506590) (CMP: Rs.145.10) (FV: Rs.2)
The Indian Carbon Black market is set to grow at a robust CAGR on the back of expanding manufacturing facilities of tyre
manufacturers coupled with the implementation of anti-dumping duty on imports carbon of black. Carbon black is a
pure form of carbon majorly used as reinforcement filler in rubber goods, tyres, plastics and other products
manufacturing industries. Although, the growth in the automotive sector has slowed down but still growing in single
digits, the replacement demand for tyres is set to rise considerably due to the robust growth in automobiles the last 3-4
years.
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
BULL’S EYE
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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