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: : FUTURE OF MEDIA : REPORT : : JULY 2008

: : FUTURE OF MEDIA : REPORT : :

JULY 2008

: : FUTURE OF MEDIA : REPORT : : JULY 2008
: : FUTURE OF MEDIA : REPORT : : JULY 2008

: : FUTURE OF MEDIA : REPORT : : JULY 2008

: : FUTURE OF MEDIA 2008 : PARTNERS : :

Strategic Partners

WELCOME

We are entering the media economy. The traditional boundaries of the media and entertainment industry have become meaningless. Today almost every business and social activity is a form of media. An increasing proportion of our social interactions happen across media channels. Every organization is now a media entity, engaged in creating and disseminating messages among its staff, customers, and partners to achieve business objectives. As the physical economy becomes marginalized and economic value becomes centered on the virtual, media encompasses almost everything.

At the same time, many media organizations are experiencing severe challenges, as content proliferates, audiences change behaviors, advertising revenue erodes, and new competitors emerge. Others are prospering as they tap swiftly growing sectors, leverage amateur content creation, tap the power of social networks, and scale production costs. Meanwhile adjacent industries such as telecom, financial services, mobile phones, consumer electronics, professional services, and even automobile are becoming media participants.

Partners Each year Future Exploration Network runs the Future of Media Summit, linking Silicon Valley
Partners
Each year Future Exploration Network runs the Future of Media
Summit, linking Silicon Valley and Sydney with video and cross-
continental discussions, and launches an accompanying report.
The striking impact of the 2006 and 2007 Future of Media Reports
means this year’s report has a lot to live up to. We are confident
the new frameworks and ideas we are contributing will again
provide substantial value.
Over the last years we have helped many media organizations
develop and implement effective strategies. We thrive on helping
companies to create the future of media. However it is also
exciting to take these issues and conversations into a broader
sphere. Welcome to the conversation.
Ross Dawson
Chairman
Future Exploration Network

Page 2

MEDIA: A GROWTH MARKET SIZE OF GLOBAL MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT MARKET IN 2008: $US 1.7

MEDIA: A GROWTH MARKET

SIZE OF GLOBAL MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT MARKET IN 2008:

$US 1.7 trillion

Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers

SIZE OF GLOBAL MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT MARKET IN 2024:

$US 5.7 trillion (2008 dollars)

Source: Future Exploration Network

Media, entertainment, and related industries are positioned at the center of massive global growth. The current positioning of some media companies in a rapidly changing market means they are not experiencing this upside. Others are doing fabulously well in tapping people’s almost insatiable desire for content and connection. In this report we explore the growth and opportunities available to all participants in the vast landscape which is media.

Fastest growing advertising markets 2007 - 2010

Source: Zenith Optimedia

US$ billion

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 USA China Russia Brazil
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
USA
China
Russia
Brazil
UK
India
Japan
South Korea
South Africa
Philippines
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

%

Page 3

Global advertising revenues

Source: Zenith Optimedia

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Internet Outdoor
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Internet
Outdoor
Radio
Cinema
Television
Magazines
US$ bn
Newspapers
Newspapers

Media Consumption

Source: Carat 100 90 7 Driving Forces Internet 80 Digital TV Increasing Media Consumption Analogue
Source: Carat
100
90
7 Driving Forces
Internet
80
Digital TV
Increasing Media Consumption
Analogue TV
70
Games
1
60
Wireless
Increasing media consumption Humans are
intrinsically media animals. As we get greater access
50
Outdoor Media
to media and content, we are discovering that our
40
Digital Radio
appetite for information and entertainment is virtually insatiable.
Analogue Radio
It is commonplace for people of all ages to consume multiple
30
media at the same time, with television, internet, newspaper,
Cinema
20
messaging, and other media frequently overlapping.
Print
10
Implications:
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Average total media consumption will exceed waking
hours. Most media will be consumed with partial attention.
Advertising impact will decrease.
Hours per week

2

Fragmentation

At the same time as we are consuming more media, every existing media channel is being

fragmented, and new ones are being added apace. In the example of television in this chart, we watch ever more television, but the proliferation of new channels means continually less viewer time per channel. Now that the Internet and mobile are creating an explosion of new channels and content, audiences are being divided into smaller and smaller segments.

Implications:

Current mass media markets are ephemeral. Revenues per channel will decrease. In all except a handful of cases, production costs will need to scaled down.

User generated content

Source: Technorati, Flickr, Alexa, Comscore, www.internetworldstats.com

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 Flickr photos (x
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Flickr photos (x 0.1)
Facebook visitors
Number of blogs
YouTube visitors
million

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

US TV Fragmentation

Source: Media Dynamics and Bear Sterns 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Source: Media Dynamics and Bear Sterns
1950
1960
1970 1980
1990
2000
2005

Year

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

weekly1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Year 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 set

set usage (hrs)

time per2000 2005 Year 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 weekly set usage (hrs) channel

channel (hrs)

3

Participation

Early talk about consumer-generated media has become a stark reality over the last two years, with an explosion of media participation across blogs, photos, videos, social networks,

and more. The costs of quality content creation are plummeting. Already a large proportion of content available is non-professional, and people’s media activities are increasingly focused on participatory channels such as social networks.

Implications:

An infinite supply of content. Increased fragmentation of attention. Pro-Am (professional-amateur) content models

will emerge.

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10content models will emerge. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 5 0 Exabytes (10

5content models will emerge. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 0 Exabytes (10

0content models will emerge. 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Exabytes (10

Exabytes (10 18 Bytes)

Total IP bandwidth Consumer Consumer video

Global IP tra c

Source: Cisco

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
c Source: Cisco 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 • Strategy • Thought Leadership •

Strategy

Thought Leadership

Sponsored Content

Shaping Media

4

Personalization

Media is becoming personalized. Ultimately this is about user control, in enabling every possible choice in

what, when, and where people consume media, and its formatting, filtering, and presentation. At the same time, real-time information on viewers enables highly targeted advertising based on behaviors, location, and other profile data. The fate of personalized advertising will depend on how societal attitudes to privacy evolve.

Implications:

Users’ expectations for control over their media will increase. Abuse of personalized advertising will create a backlash. Some will opt-out, and others will opt-in if sufficient value is created.

US$

million

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

Behavioral Advertising

Source: eMarketer

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

Platform-A

Advertising.com

Yahoo! Network Google Ad Network

Speci c Media ValueClick Networks Yahoo! Tribal Fusion

Google Casale Media Network DRIVEpm

adconion media group

Tra c Marketplace

AOL Media Network interCLICK

MSN-Windows Live Tremor Media

24/7 Real Media ADSDAQ Burst Media

US Internet audience reach

Source: comScore, Media Metrix

Advertising Networks Web Property 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Advertising Networks
Web Property
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

5

New revenue models

Within the current trend away from subscription and towards ad-supported business models, the

way that advertising is sold is dramatically changing. As illustrated, the vast majority of the online players with the greatest reach are advertising networks, not stand-alone sites such as Google or Yahoo! Unbundling sales and content is allowing far greater scalability of content production costs. The promise of micropayments for content may re-emerge within a decade.

Implications:

Advertising aggregation will be central to the media landscape. Media companies will segment and unbundle ad sales and content creation.

% of US online population

Newspaper readership by age

Source: Journalism.org, Scarborough Research

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 - 24 18 - 44 35 55
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
- 24
18
- 44
35
55 - 64
- 34
25
- 54
45
65+

6

Generational change

The chart shows that each generation is fairly consistent in its media consumption patterns, however that each group behaves very differently. The average audience age

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

of traditional media such as television and radio continues to increase. Over the medium to long-term, generational change will result in dramatically different profiles for media consumption and participation.

Implications:

Media channels will be increasingly age-segmented. Advertisers will accelerate their shift to new media outlets. Sharemarket valuations will reflect age profiles of audiences.

7

Increasing bandwidth

In developed countries the Internet has now shifted from dial-up to broadband in the home.

A rapid pace of increase in bandwidth will continue indefinitely. It will not be too long before the majority of developed country homes receive over 100Mbps. At the same time mobile bandwidth is

soaring, with a variety of technologies contributing to pervasive high-speed access to content.

Implications:

Video on demand anywhere, anytime. Personal clouds will allow music and video collections to be accessed anywhere without local storage. The rationale for allocated media spectrum and infrastructure will fade.

For additional Future of Media Resources

www.futureexploration.net

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E I S Z F S F E N E D O R S I T
E I S Z F S F E N E D O R S I T

Future of the Media Lifecycle

HOME

STORAGE RECOMMENDATIONS TIMESHIFTING PLACESHIFTING
STORAGE
RECOMMENDATIONS
TIMESHIFTING
PLACESHIFTING
HOME STORAGE RECOMMENDATIONS TIMESHIFTING PLACESHIFTING R MOBILE LIFE STREAMING VIDEO PHOTOS WORDS PERSONAL

R

MOBILE

LIFE STREAMING VIDEO PHOTOS WORDS
LIFE
STREAMING
VIDEO
PHOTOS
WORDS
PLACESHIFTING R MOBILE LIFE STREAMING VIDEO PHOTOS WORDS PERSONAL CLOUD S E N I N O

PERSONAL CLOUD

S E N I N O I T Z I E N C A I
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HANDHELD

PRECIPITATION OF PARTICIPATION

MEDIA

CENTER

INTERFACES

WIRELESS ETHERNET UPnP HOME NETWORKS COAX POWERLINE T V
WIRELESS
ETHERNET
UPnP
HOME
NETWORKS
COAX
POWERLINE
T
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DIFFUSION OF MEMES
DIFFUSION
OF MEMES
DIFFUSION OF MEMES
DIFFUSION
OF MEMES

INTERFACES

T

HOME MEDIA

OF MEMES DIFFUSION OF MEMES INTERFACES T HOME MEDIA LOCATION BASED MEDIA OUTDOOR MEDIA M TV

LOCATION

BASED MEDIA

OUTDOOR

MEDIA

M

TV / VIDEO

T HOME MEDIA LOCATION BASED MEDIA OUTDOOR MEDIA M TV / VIDEO CONVERSATION • Strategy •

CONVERSATION

Strategy

Thought Leadership

Sponsored Content

GAMES

SEA OF CONTENT

COMMENTARY

MUSIC

NEWS

Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License

For diagram explanation and additional Future of Media resources:

www.futureexploration.net

OPEN

OwNERShIP

PROPRIETARY

Future of Media: Strategy Tools

3 Examples: Strategic repositioning in the Flow Economy

1

Apple

Apple has proved very effective at repositioning itself across the flow economy. Most prominently, it has used

its strong positioning in Interfaces (e.g. iPod, Mac) to shift to Content (iTunes). It has also built direct Relationships with its iTunes customers whereas before distributors held all customer relationships. Apple’s adoption AAC as the default music encoding Standard on iTunes provided some lock-in as it was a less common though still open standard. For iPhone it has selected and generated revenue from selected partners for Connectivity (AT&T in the US), and is now taking part of the Service revenue for iPhone apps provided by a broader developer community.

2

Flow Economy Strategy Process - Summary

 

1.

Define your space

What is the “total customer experience” you participate in creating?

 

Which elements of the flow economy do you currently provide within this?

Who provides the other flow economy elements required?

What is your current relationship with these providers?

2.

Redefine your space

 

What is driving change in the flow of information and value in the space?

 

How can you redefine the total customer experience?

What are competitive drivers within each of the flow elements required?

How can you leverage your existing positioning into new sources of revenue or value?

3. Reposition

Build internal capabilities.

Acquire existing businesses.

License content or technology.

Build alliances with complementary firms.

Outsource business activities.

3

NTT DoCoMo

The flow economy framework is especially relevant to telecoms providers that need to reposition from commoditized Connectivity into higher value

spaces. DoCoMo has distinguished itself by developing Standards including W-CDMA and i-mode, providing it with local market differentiation and access to international markets. Its alliances with phone manufacturers allow it to control the Interfaces used by its customers, creating more embedded Relationships. i-mode’s staggering success after its 1999 launch was largely attributable to its model of allowing third-party Content and Services providers access to the system, with just a low margin for DoCoMo. DoCoMo is now providing financial Services through its DCMX mobile credit cards, and, as other mobile companies, seeking to leverage its existing customer Interfaces to provide search functionality.

STRATEGy

STRATEGy

STRATEGy

STRATEGy

MAP

1

2

3

COMPETITOR

     

A

COMPETITOR

     

B

COMPETITOR

     

C

Finite players play within boundaries, infinite players play with boundaries.    B COMPETITOR       C James Carse CONNECTIVITy INTERFACES Flow Economy Framework

within boundaries, infinite players play with boundaries. James Carse CONNECTIVITy INTERFACES Flow Economy Framework

James Carse

CONNECTIVITy INTERFACES Flow Economy Framework The Flow Economy Framework encompasses all activity based on the
CONNECTIVITy
INTERFACES
Flow Economy Framework
The Flow Economy Framework encompasses all
activity based on the flow of information and ideas.
The diagram shows its six elements: Standards,
Relationships, Connectivity, Interfaces,
Content, and Services. All six elements are
required to deliver value to customers.
STANDARDS
RELATIONShIPS
Each of these elements can be run as a stand-
alone business. However the greatest value
is unlocked in how they are combined. Only a
handful of companies have the capacity to play in
all six elements of the flow economy, and even then they
must rely heavily on alliances. The heart of strategy in the
flow economy is in leveraging existing strengths to move
into a higher-value strategic position. As the landscape
develops, this repositioning is a continuous process.
CONTENT
SERVICES
More information
Full details on the Flow Economy
framework and strategy process can be
found in Chapter 7 of Living Networks.
In uncertain times, don’t try to predict the
future. Systematically explore possible futures.
Ross Dawson
Free chapter download from:

www.livingnetworksbook.com

PLATFORMS

PEOPLE

POwER

PLATFORM

PLAyS

FRAGMENTED

CONCENTRATED

wAITING FOR

ThE FUTURE

TITANS

CLASh

Scenario Planning for Media

Classic scenario planning is one of the most powerful tools for rigorous long-term strategy development in the media industry. In the face of multiple uncertainties, including technological development, consumer behavior, standards battles, regulation, and many others, a well-designed scenario planning process assists the development of robust business strategies.

Generic scenarios are of limited use. Scenarios need to be developed around specific business issues and key decisions. A typical scenario planning process would include:

Define objectives and key strategic decisions

Identify driving forces and critical uncertainties

Select key dimensions

Create scenario framework

Develop distinct, plausible, complementary scenarios

Test existing strategies across scenarios

Generate new strategic options

Define a core strategy and contingent responses

Build strategic responsiveness across the organization

British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB)

BSkyB began with part ownership of the satellites providing the Connectivity for TV delivery, creating and buying Content, and using these

to create customer Relationships. In the early 1990s it sold its satellite ownership and since then has used the Astra satellites to provide the necessary Connectivity. Its exclusive live TV Content rights for the FA Premier League since 1992 has been leveraged into strong subscriber growth and many new Relationships. In 2001 BSkyB introduced Sky+, a combination set-top box and digital video recorder, providing an Interface to generate greater revenue and build more entrenched Relationships. BSkyB is now shifting into new Services including broadband and phone. It is also distributing its Content over new channels including mobile using Sky Anytime.

you have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play
you have to learn the rules of the
game. And then you have to play
better than anyone else.
Albert Einstein

Game Theory: Strategies for Openness

The inexorable shift to openness dominates the media strategic landscape today. All successful platforms provide rich programming interfaces, open standards are swiftly being adopted, data portability is gaining momentum, most content is available on RSS feeds, and controls on intellectual property are being loosened.

The extraordinary pace of these trends means that media strategy is becoming more challenging. New business models are required, competitive responses must be swift, and strategic choices need to be made and implemented in real-time.

In this environment game theory is extremely relevant and a valuable strategic tool. Game theory studies how multi-player situations may evolve as participants respond to each others’ actions. This can be done using mathematical modelling, or more simply as a framework for thinking through strategic options, their impact on the industry landscape, and optimal short and long-term strategies.

landscape, and optimal short and long-term strategies. • Strategy • Thought Leadership • Sponsored Content

Strategy

Thought Leadership

Sponsored Content

For additional Future of Media Resources

www.futureexploration.net

: : FUTURE OF MEDIA : REPORT : : JULY 2008

SNIPPETS

MEDIA SNIPPETS

: : J U L Y 2 0 0 8 SNIPPETS MEDIA SNIPPETS More than 57%

More than 57% of online video viewers share links to the videos they find with others

Pew

viewers share links to the videos they find with others Pew Roughly one-fifth of all U.S.

Roughly one-fifth of all U.S. households are disconnected from the Internet and have never used e-mail.

Parks Associates

Six in ten (59%) are not comfortable when websites use behavioural information to tailor advertisements
Six in ten (59%) are
not comfortable
when websites use
behavioural information
to tailor advertisements
or content.
Harris
information to tailor advertisements or content. Harris US newspaper circulation is the same as in 1978,
information to tailor advertisements or content. Harris US newspaper circulation is the same as in 1978,
information to tailor advertisements or content. Harris US newspaper circulation is the same as in 1978,

US newspaper circulation is the same as in 1978, when there were 100 million fewer people in Americainformation to tailor advertisements or content. Harris Newspaper Association of America France has the largest

Newspaper Association of America

France has the largest number of IPTV subscribers in the world, with three of the world’s four largest IPTV service providers (Free, Orange France Telecom and Neuf Cegetel). The remaining service provider out of the top four is PCCW in Hong Kong.

dailyIPTV

In 2007 YouTube consumed as much bandwidth as the entire Internet in 2000. Daily Telegraph
In 2007 YouTube
consumed as much
bandwidth as the
entire Internet
in 2000.
Daily Telegraph
bandwidth as the entire Internet in 2000. Daily Telegraph There are 1.4 million new broadband users

There are 1.4 million new broadband users in China every month.

China Mobile

new broadband users in China every month. China Mobile Thirty seven percent of consumers say they
Thirty seven percent of consumers say they would rather pay for online content than be
Thirty seven percent
of consumers say
they would rather pay
for online content
than be exposed to
advertisements
Deloitte
online content than be exposed to advertisements Deloitte The median age of a US live television

The median age of a US live television viewer is 50, compared to 38 for the entire population.

Magna Global

50, compared to 38 for the entire population. Magna Global Almost 70% of journalists read blogs

Almost 70% of journalists read blogs regularly, while 20% say they spend over one hour per day reading blogs

Marketwatch

70% of journalists read blogs regularly, while 20% say they spend over one hour per day

Page 10

ABOUT FUTURE EXPLORATION NETWORK Future Exploration Network assists major organizations globally to gain insights into

ABOUT FUTURE EXPLORATION NETWORK

Future Exploration Network assists major organizations globally to gain insights into the future and develop strategies that create competitive advantage. Its unique services are delivered from its deep in-house expertise, complemented by its network of global best-of-breed experts.

Clients of Future Exploration Network’s key executives include ABN Amro, Capgemini, CNET, Ernst & Young, IBM, KPMG, Lend Lease, Macquarie Bank, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, News Corporation, and SAP.

Bank, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, News Corporation, and SAP. LEADERSHIP Ross Dawson Chairman Ross Dawson is a

LEADERSHIP

Ross Dawson

Chairman

Ross Dawson is a globally recognized business strategist and authority on the future of technology and business, the best-selling author of Living Networks and Developing Knowledge- Based Client Relationships, and a frequent international keynote speaker. His work is regularly featured in leading print and broadcast media worldwide such as CNN, Bloomberg TV, Washington Post, Reuters, SkyNews, ABC TV, and Channel News Asia. Ross also writes the highly influential Trends in the Living Networks blog

VIRTUAL CONSULTING MODEL TAPS WORLD’S BEST

Future Exploration Network has extensive in-house resources for consulting, research, and content creation. We complement these core resources by drawing as required on our diverse network of global best-of-breed experts. This allows us to deliver unique, world-class services for projects of any scale.

SERVICES

Strategy consulting

Future Exploration Network applies a range of tools and approaches to assist its clients to develop clear, actionable strategies in highly uncertain environments. We have deep expertise in applying scenario planning to build robust strategies.

Research

Deep research into technological, social, and business trends supports clients’ strategic thinking, decisions, and implementation. Technology landscapes help organizations to plan long-term positioning, product development, and technology strategies.

Thought leadership content

We create content for leading organizations that will reach and engage attention-poor senior executives and support key messages on technology and business trends. These can be delivered in a wide variety of content formats, including print, presentations, documents, audio, video, and flash, and delivered so they reach target audiences.

Presentations and workshops

Keynote speeches and executive workshops can be delivered by key Future Exploration Network executives Ross Dawson, Richard Watson, or other world-class presenters from our network to stimulate, provoke, entertain, and provide input into specific strategic decisions.

Events

We create focused, relevant, highly interactive conferences and events that bring together the best minds in the field. FEN organizes both public events, and custom-designed events for key sponsors.

Future of Media Report 2008 is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License Report Design: redk.com.au

Go to www.futureexploration.net for other free publications including:

Future of Media Report 2006

Future of Media Report 2007

Web 2.0 Framework

Executive Insights into Enterprise 2.0

Page 11

Report 2006 • Future of Media Report 2007 • Web 2.0 Framework • Executive Insights into
Contact Us Future Exploration Network Sydney : : +612 9994 8011 San Francisco : :

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