Composite Generation & Transmission System

Reliability Analysis:
Reliability Indices:
(System & Load point Indices)

Classified as
(i) Basic Values :
(a) Probability of failure
(b) Expected frequency of failure
(c) Expected number of voltage violations
(d) Expected no. of load curtailments
(e) Expected load curtailed
(f) Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)
(g) Expected duration of load curtailment.
(ii) Maximum Values:
(a) Maximum load curtailed
(b) Max. energy curtailed
(c) Max. duration of load curtailment
(iii) Mean (or) Average values :
(a) Average load curtailed
(b) Average Energy Not Supplied(AENS)
(c) Average duration of load curtailment
(iv) Bus isolation values :
(a) Expected no. of curtailment
(b) Expected load curtailed
(c) Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)
 (d) Expected duration of load curtailment
The above indices are expressed based on single load level &
expressed on basis of one year known as annualized values.
Annualized indices calculated at system peak load level are
usually much higher than the actual annual indices.

i) Basic Values:
(a) Probability of failure

=
(b) Frequency of failure

=
Where ‘j’ is an outage condition

is the probability of outage ‘j’

is probability of the load at bus ‘k’ exceeding

the max load that can be supplied at that bus ‘k’ during an
outage ’j’
(c) Expected no. of voltage violations

=
 Where j includes all contingencies which can cause
voltage violation at bus ’k’
(d) Expected no. of load curtailments

=
Where j includes all contingencies resulting in over
loads by load curtailment at bus ‘k’
j includes all contingencies resulting in isolation of bus
‘k’
(e) Expected load curtailed

Where = load curtailment at bus ‘k’

(f) Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)

EENS =
D= Duration

EENS =
(g) Expected duration of load curtailment
 =

= hours

ii. Maximum Values:

(a) Max. load curtailed =

Max { , ……. }
(b) Max. energy curtailed

= Max { ,

……. }

(c) Max. duration of load curtailment=

Max { , ……. }
iii. Mean (or) Average values:
(a) Average load curtailed

= , MW/curtailment
 =

(b) Average Energy Not Supplied

AENS =

=
MWhrs/curtailment
(c) Average duration of load curtailment =

=
hrs/curtailment
iv. Bus isolation values :
(a) Expected no. of curtailment
 =
(b) Expected load curtailed

( c) Expected Energy Not Supplied

=
(d) Expected duration of load curtailment

Conditional Probability Approach:

P(A |B1, B2) = P(A |B1) P(B1) + P(A |B2) P(B2)

Let pg(Qp) be the probability of generation inadequacy.

pc(Qp) be the probability of transmission inadequacy

for example:
pc(1) is probability of the transmission line-1 exceeding it’s
capability.
pc(2) is probability of the transmission line-2 exceeding it’s
capability.
Qs = probability of the system failure
A1, U1 ---> Availability, Unavailability of line-1
A2, U2 ---> Availability, Unavailability of line-2
Using conditional approach,
Qs = Qs1 A1 + Qs1’ U1 ------> (1)
= Qs(line-1 in) A1 + Qs(line-1 out) U1
Billinton notation;
(Qs,1 | line-1 in (or) out) =
(system failure | line-1 in,out)=
=(Probability of system failure | line-1 in) p(line-1 in)
+ (Probability of system failure | line-1 out) p(line-1 out)
(Qs,1 | line-2 in (or) out) =
(Probability of Qs,1 | line-2 in) p(line-2 in)
+ (Probability of Qs,1 | line-2 out) p(line-2 out)
Qs,1 = Qs 1,2 p(L2 in) + Qs 1,2’ p(L2 out) -----> (2)
= (Qs 1,2) A2 + (Qs 1,2’) U2
Qs 1,2 = pg + pc(1,2) – pg pc(1,2) ----> (3)
Qs 1,2’ = pg + pc(1) – pg pc(1) -------> (4)
(Qs,1’ | line-2 in, out) = Qs 1’ 2 A2 + Qs 1’ 2’ U2 ------> (5)
Qs 1’ 2 = pg + pc(2) – pg pc(2) ------> (6)
Qs 1’ 2’ = 1 ---------> (7)
Substituting (6) & (7) in (5),
Qs,1’ = (pg + pc(2) – pg pc(2)) A2 + U2 --------> (8)
Substituting eq. (3) & (4) in eq. (2),
Qs,1 = (pg + pc(1,2) – pg pc(1,2)) A2 + (pg + pc(1) – pg pc(1)) U2 ; (9)
Substituting eq. (9) & (8) in eq.(1),
Qs = A1[(pg + pc(1,2) – pg pc(1,2)) A2 + (pg + pc(1) – pg pc(1)) U2]
+ [(pg + pc(2) – pg pc(2)) A2 + U2] U1
Qs = A1 A2 pg + pc(1,2) A2 A1 – A2 A1 pg pc(1,2) +A1 pg U2
+A1 pc(1) U2 – A1 U2 pg pc(1) + pg A2 U1 + pc(2) A2 U1
– pg pc(2) A2 U1 +U1 U2
Qs = A1 A2 pg + A1 A2 pc(1,2) – A1 A2 pg pc(1,2) + A1 pg U2
+A1 pc(1) U2 – A1 U2 pg pc(1) + pg A2 U1 + pc(2) A2 U1
– pg pc(2) A2 U1 +U1 U2
If A1 = A2 = A & U1 = U2 = U
pc(1) = pc(2)=pc (say ), then
Qs = A2 pg + A2 pc(1,2) – A2 pg pc(1,2) + A U pg + A U pc(1)
- A U pg pc(1) + A U pg + AU pc(2) – A U pg pc(2) + U2
= A2 { pg + pc(1,2) – pg pc(1,2) } + 2A U{ pg + pc – pg pc} + U2
Generation & Transmission are considered that they are
connected in series as per reliability structure.
The probability of the failure at bus ‘k’ is

Qk =

Fk =
Where
Bj = an outage condition
pgj = probability of generating capacity outage
exceeding the reserve capacity
(or) equivalent to probability of generation inadequacy when jth
outage condition is considered
pij = probability of the load exceeding the line capability when
ith line capability due to jth outage condition considered

Qk =

Fk =