Rapid Visual Assessment of Existing Buildings along the Philippine

West Valley Fault

CHAPTER I

Background of the Study

The Philippines is located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which causes the country to have
frequent seismic and volcanic activity. Metro Manila the capital of the Philippines, is known as
the most densely populated region of the Philippines. It is also the 9th most populous metropolitan
area in Asia and the 5th most populous urban area in the world. Philippines is located between two
major subduction zones. The Eurasian Plate (or South China Plate) subducts eastward beneath
Luzon Island along the Manila Trench, and the Philippine Sea Plate subducts westward along the
East Luzon Trench simultaneously. This is the main reason for the high seismic activity in the
Luzon Region.

According to the joint study conducted by Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
(Phivolcs), Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and the Japan International
Cooperation Agency (JICA), Metro Manila is surrounded by numerous earthquake sources, among
those sources are the West Valley Faults, Manila Trench and Manila bay which poses the greatest
threat to the densely populated Metro Manila. The worst-case scenario is the movement of the
West Valley Fault also known as the "The Big One" earthquake.

The West Valley Fault (WVF) is a 100 km fault that runs throughout the cities of Metro Manila.
According to the Phivolcs, the WVF has moved 4 times and generated strong earthquakes within
the 1400 years. The approximate return period of these earthquakes is 400 to 500 years and the
last event along the West Valley Fault is known after 356 years ago in 1658, it means that the
active phases of the Valley Faults is approaching. Many research studies indicate that the estimated
magnitude will be around 7 or more.

Based on the damage estimation by Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS)
of the potential rupture of West Valley Fault, approximately 40% of the total number of residential
buildings within Metro Manila will collapse or be affected. This building collapse directly affects
large numbers of people, since it is estimated to cause 34,000 deaths and 114,000 injuries.
Moreover, additional 18,000 deaths are anticipated by the fire spreading after the earthquake event.
At least seven bridges will fall off while 10 percent of public buildings will be heavily damaged.
The 4,615 kilometers of water distribution pipes will suffer 4,000 points of breakage. Thirty
kilometers' worth of electric cables will be cut and 95 kilometers of communication cables will be
disconnected. Cellular phone service will be congested and out of use. This human loss, together
with properties and economy losses of Metro Manila will be a national crisis.
The effects of earthquake are inevitable. It is also impossible to predict the exact location, severity
and probability of an earthquake. However, the consequences of an earthquake can be greatly
reduced by using an appropriate seismic risk management procedure.

Seismic vulnerability evaluation is defined as an approved process or methodology of evaluating

deficiencies in a building that prevents the building from achieving a selected performance
objective.

Depending on the seismic evaluation, a building can be demolished, retrofitted to increase its
capacity, or modified to decrease its seismic demand. The earthquake risk at any location depends
on the seismic hazard as well as the vulnerability of its structures. The seismic hazard evaluation
considers the likelihood of earthquake of a particular magnitude or intensity affecting a site.

In huge cities like Metro Manila, an effective way of seismic evaluation is to determine the most
vulnerable buildings during the Big One Earthquake Scenario. These buildings are arranged base
on their level of risk before a detailed evaluation are performed.

Statement of the Problem

1. What are the current status of structures near the West Valley Fault?

2. Which structures are highly vulnerable to the effects of the Big One Earthquake Scenario?

3. What are the current assessment tools used by the government to determine the seismic

vulnerability of the structures in a huge city.

4. How effective are the assessment tools?

Objective

The main objective of the study is to identify, inventory and rank buildings that are potentially

hazardous during the Big One Earthquake Scenario and recommend initial seismic risk mitigation.

It also seeks to determine the effectivity of the assessment tools used.

Conceptual Framework

•Literature Review PROCESS •List of Potentially Hazardous

•Journals Building
•Online Journals and •Data analysis and •Recommend initial seismic
Researchs interpretation risk mitigation
•Data processing and •Determine the effectivity of
consolidation the assessment tool
•Survey Questions
•Interview

INPUT OUTPUT

Significance of the Study

As shown in the study, approximately 40% of the total number of residential buildings within

Metro Manila will collapse or be affected. This building collapse directly affects large numbers of

people, since it is estimated to cause 34,000 deaths and 114,000 injuries. The study would like to

address the greatest threat in the movement of the West Valley Fault.

1. The study can help predict the possible impacts of huge earthquakes to various structures

along the West Valley Fault and determine the level of vulnerability in the Metro Manila.

2. The study can help provide a list of potentially hazardous building.

3. It will also help recommend the appropriate seismic risk mitigation for the building.
4. Helps provide cost efficient decision support on how to optimize investments into risk

reducing measures in three situations, namely, prior, during and after an earthquake.

Research Methodology