Combustion Turbine/Combined

Cycle Technology Developments,

Reliability Issues, and Related
Market Conditions:
EPRI Gas Turbine Experience and
Intelligence Report
1003984

Interim Report, November 2001

EPRI Project Manager

J. Scheibel

EPRI • 3412 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304 • PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303 • USA
800.313.3774 • 650.855.2121 • askepri@epri.com • www.epri.com

10093037
DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES
THIS DOCUMENT WAS PREPARED BY THE ORGANIZATION(S) NAMED BELOW AS AN
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Copyright © 2001 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

10093037
CITATIONS

This report was prepared by

Hoffman Publications, Inc.

16360 Monterey Road
Suite 230
Morgan Hill, CA 95037-5455

Principal Investigator
S. Hoffman

This report describes research sponsored by EPRI.

The report is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner:

Combustion Turbine/Combined Cycle Technology Developments, Reliability Issues, and Related

Market Conditions: EPRI Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report, EPRI, Palo Alto,
CA: 2001. 1003984.

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10093037
REPORT SUMMARY

Deregulating power generation markets worldwide present both business opportunities and
challenges for combustion turbine plant owners, operators, and project developers. The EPRI
Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report provides concise, well-organized, up-to-date
technical, strategic, and business information for combustion turbine (CT) power producers. This
technical report assembles all of the content from the most recent three years of GTE&IR (seven
editions) into a single document.

Background
Before power market deregulation, CT plants were predominantly simple-cycle designs used for
peaking power and were sometimes under-maintained and unreliable. Today, CT simple-cycle
and combined-cycle (CC) plants are not only the technology of choice for most new generation,
but record high summer peak prices and related profit incentives have spurred massive
investment in refurbishment and upgrading the existing CT fleet. Yet, CT owner/operators face a
range of challenges, including the potentially damaging impact of two-shifting operation, rising
maintenance and repair expenses, and the high cost (and limited availability) of replacement
parts. These power producers also face a dizzying array of options, including a range of
approaches on a project and fleetwide basis covering technology, business, and political risks. At
the same time, new plant operations and engineering support services—working with dynamic
trading floors—must determine how to prosper and meet demanding project pro forma
expectations while contending with fuel/electricity market volatilities, staffing, hot section
durability shortfalls, and increasingly stringent environmental regulation.
EPRI’s comprehensive CT/CC program provides a range of tools, methodologies, and
approaches to help owner/operators and project developers face these challenges and prosper in
this evolving marketplace. Access to this resource base in a timely, concise manner is key to
delivering benefits in the new electricity marketplace.

Objective
To document up-to-date information on large CT/CC product offerings worldwide, early plant
experience, and in-depth market analysis and technology insights on fleet-leading machines.

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Approach
The EPRI Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report is a biannual short report of concise,
current insights on new CT/CC technology developments, reliability issues, and related market
conditions to power producers. GTE&IR communicates to engineering and management staff by
providing key strategic, technical, and market information relevant to the CT owner community.
Alternating editions covered primarily business/strategic issues and technology issues; in 2001,
GTE&IR added a third edition. To develop GTE&IR, the project team synthesized information
from EPRI efforts underway, interviewed project managers and experts, gathered current
information, and produced short articles for the report. For each GTE&IR edition, the team
organized this information into coherent “themes” of pressing interest among power producers.

Results
This technical report includes GTE&IR content from the most recent three years (1999-2001).
The EPRI report organizes comprehensive, practical information for CT power producers into a
single document, with clear references to support in-depth EPRI reports. For the year 2001,
GTE&IR includes an edition on CT hot section life management and related repair technologies;
an edition on heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs); and, an edition on fuels, environmental
siting, risk assessment, and optimal design of new CT-based power plants. In the year 2000, one
edition covered effective CT repair, while a second edition focused on risk identification and
allocation—important parts of developing and implementing a financial strategy for any power
project. In 1999, one edition covered CT life management, and a second edition provided a
business perspective on CTs and combined cycles.

EPRI Perspective
The GTE&IR content contained in this technical report distills information from a variety of
industry resources and unique EPRI expertise gained from conducting CT programs for more
than 20 years. Future editions will increasingly take advantage of electronic delivery and
epri.com web capabilities to improve content and access. Upcoming topics including strategic
generation planning in a carbon-constrained world, natural gas supply, state-of-the-art emissions
controls, repair facility consolidation and new entrants, predictive maintenance, and F-class life
management.

Keywords
Combustion turbine
Gas turbine
Combined cycle
Repowering

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ABSTRACT

Deregulating power generation markets worldwide presents both business opportunities and
challenges for combustion turbine plant owners, operators, and project developers. EPRI’s
comprehensive CT/CC program provides a range of tools, methodologies, and approaches to
help owner/operators and project developers face these challenges and prosper in this evolving
marketplace. Access to this resource base in a timely, concise manner is key to delivering
benefits in the new electricity marketplace. The EPRI Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence
Report is a short report of concise, current insights on new CT/CC technology developments,
reliability issues, and related market conditions to power producers. GTE&IR communicates to
engineering and management staff by providing key strategic, technical, and market information
relevant to the CT owner community. This technical report assembles all of the content from the
most recent three years (1999-2001) of GTE&IR (seven editions) into a single document, with
clear references to support in-depth EPRI reports. The GTE&IR content contained in this
technical report distills information from a variety of industry resources and unique EPRI
expertise gained from conducting CT programs for more than 20 years.

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10093037
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The EPRI project manager and report author wish to thank the many EPRI contractors, too
numerous to list, who helped develop these articles, as summaries of their work conducted for
EPRI. In addition, the following EPRI personnel contributed to the articles in this report:

Leonard Angello, Barry Dooley, Scott Drennan, David Gandy, Dale Grace, Dale Gray, Dick
Pennington, Jeremy Platt, W.C. Stenzel, and Vis Viswanathan.

Elissa Miller and Jason Cooper of Hoffman Publications, Inc., greatly aided in the preparation of
this report by converting the information from the GTE&IR into EPRI technical report form.

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10093037
CONTENTS

PART I NOVEMBER, 2001 ISSUE

1 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO NOVEMBER, 2001 ISSUE.......................... 1-1

2 F-CLASS LIFE MANAGEMENT YIELDS USEFUL PROCUREMENT AND

MAINTENANCE INTERVAL GUIDANCE ............................................................................... 2-1
Hot Section Life Management Platform .............................................................................. 2-1
Procurement Guidelines ..................................................................................................... 2-2
Maintenance Interval Tracking System............................................................................... 2-4
Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................. 2-5

3 9CHROME WELDING AND APPLICATION TO HRSG HEADERS .................................... 3-1

Increasing Use of 9Chrome Steels ..................................................................................... 3-1
Dissimilar Weld Challenges Involving 9Chrome Steels....................................................... 3-2
EPRI Recommendations .................................................................................................... 3-3
Welding Recommendations................................................................................................ 3-5

4 NEW APPROACH TO IN-SITU REPAIRS OF THERMAL BARRIER COATINGS .............. 4-1

In-Situ Repair Process Under Development ....................................................................... 4-1
Results ............................................................................................................................... 4-1

5 UPDATED CT MATERIAL PROPERTIES HANDBOOK ..................................................... 5-1

Materials Property Data...................................................................................................... 5-1
Upcoming Additions ........................................................................................................... 5-2

6 UPDATED CT COMPONENT REPAIR AND COATING GUIDELINES ............................... 6-1

Repair Guidelines............................................................................................................... 6-1
Available EPRI Repair and Coating Guidelines .................................................................. 6-2
General Electric Repair Guidelines ................................................................................ 6-2
Westinghouse Repair Guidelines ................................................................................... 6-2

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 Coating Guidelines ........................................................................................................ 6-3
New Repair Methods In Development ................................................................................ 6-3
SIDEBAR: Formation of CT Repair and Maintenance Group.............................................. 6-4

7 EPRI LAUNCHES CT CENTER WEB SITE: EPRICTCENTER.COM.................................. 7-1

CT Information and Resource Area .................................................................................... 7-1
INTURB Enhancements ..................................................................................................... 7-3
Future Functionality............................................................................................................ 7-4

PART II SEPTEMBER, 2001 ISSUE

8 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO SEPTEMBER, 2001 ISSUE ........................ 8-1

9 HRSG DESIGN AND PROCUREMENT GUIDANCE........................................................... 9-1

Conceptual Design ............................................................................................................. 9-1
Steam Cycle Optimization .................................................................................................. 9-1
Fuel Flexibility .................................................................................................................... 9-2
Procurement Guidance....................................................................................................... 9-2

10 DESIGN AND ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR SUPPLEMENTARY FIRED

HRSGS ..................................................................................................................................10-1
Economics of Duct Burning ...............................................................................................10-1
Issues in Duct Burner Design ............................................................................................10-2
Grids and Vanes................................................................................................................10-3
Emissions Issues...............................................................................................................10-4

11 HRSG DEPENDABILITY PROGRAM...............................................................................11-1

Cycle Chemistry Guidelines...............................................................................................11-1
Combined-Cycle/HRSG Cycle Chemistry Advisor (CC ChemExpert) ................................11-2
HRSG Chemical Cleaning Guidelines ...............................................................................11-2
HRSG Tube Failure Manual ..............................................................................................11-3

12 CYCLE CHEMISTRY GUIDELINES IMPROVE HRSG RELIABILITY ..............................12-1

HRSG Complexity and Chemistry Problems......................................................................12-1
Guidelines Are an Industry First ........................................................................................12-2
Selecting Optimal Chemical Treatment .............................................................................12-3

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13 EPRI DESTINATIONS 2002 INCLUDES ROBUST CT PROGRAM .................................13-1

PART III MAY, 2001 ISSUE

14 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO MAY, 2001 ISSUE ...................................14-1

15 FUEL SUPPLY FOR NEW GAS-FIRED CAPACITY ........................................................15-1

Last Inch and Winter Fuel..................................................................................................15-1
Type Of Service.................................................................................................................15-1
Market Assessment...........................................................................................................15-2
Balancing ..........................................................................................................................15-4
Gas Supply........................................................................................................................15-5

16 GAS TURBINE ENVIRONMENTAL SITING CONSIDERATIONS....................................16-1

Air Quality Compliance Complexity....................................................................................16-1
New Environmental Siting Report ......................................................................................16-1
Air Quality Siting and Permitting Regulatory Issues...........................................................16-2
Highlights of Emissions Control Technology Findings........................................................16-2
Low-NOx Burners Offer Benefits and Trade-Offs ...............................................................16-3
Ammonia Slip Issues.........................................................................................................16-4
Ongoing Efforts .................................................................................................................16-5

17 NEW SOFTWARE QUANTIFIES TECHNICAL RISKS OF CT PROJECTS .....................17-1

Quantifying Risk: A Complex Process ...............................................................................17-1
Quantifying Technical Risks and Costs .............................................................................17-2
Actionable Information.......................................................................................................17-2
Risk Mitigation Alternatives: Valuable Investments?..........................................................17-4
SIDEBAR: CT Long-Term Maintenance Decision Support Services ..................................17-4

18 OPTIMIZING THE DESIGN OF COMBINED-CYCLE POWER PLANTS..........................18-1

SOAPP-CT Evaluation Software .......................................................................................18-1
Scenario: Inlet Air Cooling Choices ...................................................................................18-2
Scenario Results ...............................................................................................................18-3
SIDEBAR: CT Power Augmentation Site Evaluation .........................................................18-5

PART IV DECEMBER, 2000 ISSUE

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19 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO DECEMBER, 2000 ISSUE.......................19-1

20 OVERVIEW OF HOT SECTION COMPONENT REPAIR METHODS...............................20-1

Blade Repair Procedures ..................................................................................................20-1
Gas Tungsten Arc (GTAW) Processes ..............................................................................20-1
Plasma and Microplasma Transferred Arc Processes .......................................................20-3
Laser Beam Welding (LBW) Processes.............................................................................20-4
Other Repair Methods .......................................................................................................20-4

21 EPRI CONSOLIDATES AND UPDATES REPAIR GUIDELINES .....................................21-1

Completed Guidelines .......................................................................................................21-1
Coatings .......................................................................................................................21-1
Guidelines to be Completed by December 2000................................................................21-2
Planned Guidelines (2001-2004) .......................................................................................21-2
Coatings .......................................................................................................................21-2

22 THE CURRENT STATE OF LASER WELD REPAIR OF CTS ..........................................22-1

LBW Pros and Cons..........................................................................................................22-1
LBW Applications ..............................................................................................................22-2

23 GAS TURBINE OVERHAUL PLAN SOFTWARE ENHANCEMENT PLANNED ..............23-1

24 CT OPERATIONS TRAINING NOW AVAILABLE............................................................24-1

25 EPRI COATLIFE-2 PROGRAM NOW AVAILABLE .........................................................25-1

TMF Life Modeling.............................................................................................................25-1
Coating Life Diagram.........................................................................................................25-3
Data Input..........................................................................................................................25-4
Sample Analysis................................................................................................................25-4

26 VISIT INTURB ONLINE DATABASE TODAY ..................................................................26-1

PART V JUNE, 2000 ISSUE

27 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO JUNE, 2000 ISSUE..................................27-1

28 FUEL RISK: THE IMPACT OF FUEL SWITCHING ..........................................................28-1

Switching to Fuel Oil..........................................................................................................28-1

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 EPRI Perspective ..............................................................................................................28-3

29 TECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT ..............................................................................29-1

Four-Pronged Approach ....................................................................................................29-1
Design Evolution ...............................................................................................................29-2
Durability Surveillance .......................................................................................................29-3
Collaborative Data Collection ............................................................................................29-3
Focused Studies................................................................................................................29-3

30 ASSESSING RISK BY EXAMINING CT DESIGN EVOLUTION .......................................30-1

Faster to Market CTs.........................................................................................................30-1
Design Evolution and Risk.................................................................................................30-2
Rotor Problems .................................................................................................................30-2
Single Crystal Concerns ....................................................................................................30-4
Beyond the Pedigree Matrix ..............................................................................................30-4

31 MAINTENANCE COST ESTIMATION: REDUCING TECHNOLOGY UNCERTAINTY .....31-1

The LTSA Purchase Decision............................................................................................31-1
CTCC O&M Cost Estimator ...............................................................................................31-2
Risk Assessment Tool Coming Soon.................................................................................31-3

32 SOAPP-CT VERSION 5.0 RELEASED ............................................................................32-1

33 INTURB DATABASE NOW ONLINE................................................................................33-1

PART VI SEPTEMBER, 1999 ISSUE

34 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO SEPTEMBER, 1999 ISSUE .....................34-1

35 OVERVIEW: CT BLADE FAILURE MODES AND CT LIFE MANAGEMENT...................35-1

Introduction .......................................................................................................................35-1
Creep Rupture and Deflection ...........................................................................................35-1
Oxidation/Corrosion...........................................................................................................35-1
Thermal Mechanical Fatigue (TMF)...................................................................................35-2
Vibration/High Cycle Fatigue (HCF)...................................................................................35-3
Solution: Integrated Life Management ...............................................................................35-3

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36 ORAP™: IMPROVING COMPONENT DURABILITY DATA.............................................36-1

37 PREDICTING AND EXTENDING BLADE COATING LIFE...............................................37-1

Blade Materials..................................................................................................................37-1
Blade Coatings ..................................................................................................................37-2
COATLIFE Prediction Model .............................................................................................37-2
Swept Eddy Current ..........................................................................................................37-4
Extending Coating Life ......................................................................................................37-5
Future Work ......................................................................................................................37-5

38 APPLYING LASER WELDING TO CT BLADE REPAIR ..................................................38-1

The CT Welding Challenge................................................................................................38-1
Laser: Greatest Potential...................................................................................................38-1
Laser Weld Advancement .................................................................................................38-2

39 BLADE MODELING FOR LIFE AND DESIGN EVALUATION .........................................39-1

Improved Analytic Capability .............................................................................................39-1
REMLIFE...........................................................................................................................39-1
Present Work ....................................................................................................................39-2
Applying the New Algorithms.............................................................................................39-3

PART VII MAY, 1999 ISSUE

40 MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO MAY, 1999 ISSUE ...................................40-1

41 THE FUELS SIDE OF CT RISK........................................................................................41-1

Unpredictable Differentials ................................................................................................41-1
Differential Outlook............................................................................................................41-2
Coping Strategies..............................................................................................................41-3
Price Volatility, Convergence, and Chaos..........................................................................41-3

42 ASSESSING THE COMPETITIVE GENERATION MARKET ...........................................42-1

Background .......................................................................................................................42-1
Framework Applied to California........................................................................................42-2
Importance of New Technology .........................................................................................42-2
Peaking Power Profits? .....................................................................................................42-3
Winners and Losers ..........................................................................................................42-4

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 Apply the Framework in Your Region ................................................................................42-4

43 CT AND COMBINED CYCLE MARKET STUDY ..............................................................43-1

Study Objectives ...............................................................................................................43-1
CT Demand and Prices .....................................................................................................43-2
Impact on Combined-Cycle Prices.....................................................................................43-3
Areas of Uncertainty..........................................................................................................43-3
Reference..........................................................................................................................43-4

44 MITIGATING RISK IN NEW CT/CC PROJECT DEVELOPMENT ....................................44-1

Resolving Project Trade-Offs.............................................................................................44-1
Cost Containment Options ................................................................................................44-2
Risk Assessment Framework ............................................................................................44-2
Risk Mapping ....................................................................................................................44-3
Comparing Costs and Options...........................................................................................44-4
Project Status....................................................................................................................44-5

45 SOAPP-CT.25 ..................................................................................................................45-1
SOAPP-CT WorkStation Version 1.8.................................................................................45-1

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10093037
LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1 Sample from Recently Published EPRI Guidelines for Procurement and
Acceptance of CT frame 7FA+ Buckets........................................................................... 2-3
Figure 2-2 Damage Tracking Module Approach to Displaying Calculated Thermal
Mechanical Fatigue Life Consumed................................................................................. 2-5
Figure 3-1 P91 Enables nearly a Two-Thirds Reduction in wall Thickness (66 mm
Versus 180 mm) when used in Place of P22 Material...................................................... 3-2
Figure 7-1 EpriCTcenter.com is now the Portal for CT Owners/Operators to gain Access
to Technical and Business Information on CTs................................................................ 7-2
Figure 10-1 The Duct Burner is Located in the Duct Work Leading the Turbine Exhaust
to the HRSG...................................................................................................................10-1
Figure 10-2 This “classic” V-gutter Flame Stabilizer Controls the Flow of Exhaust Around
the Heating Element. ......................................................................................................10-3
Figure 11-1 CC ChemExpert will Provide the Cornerstone of a Cycle Chemistry
Monitoring Service..........................................................................................................11-2
Figure 11-2 Permissible Specific Deposit Weight Limits as a Function of Boiler Pressure
for Conventional Fossil Plants. .......................................................................................11-3
Figure 12-1 Roadmap for Optimizing Feedwater Treatment for all-Ferrous once-through
and Drum Units. .............................................................................................................12-3
Figure 12-2 Roadmap for Drum HRSG Boiler Water Treatment Selection. ............................12-4
Figure 15-1 Daily Basis Differential with Henry Hub. ..............................................................15-3
Figure 15-2 Basis Differential with Henry Hub. .......................................................................15-4
Figure 16-1 Overview of Air Quality Permitting Requirements................................................16-2
Figure 17-1 Relative Distribution of Project Cash Flow...........................................................17-3
Figure 17-2 Sensitivity of Plant Profitability to Variability in Maintenance Frequency..............17-3
Figure 18-1 SOAPP Software Operation. ...............................................................................18-2
Figure 20-1 Simplified Flow Chart: Blade Repair Procedures.................................................20-2
Figure 20-2 Comparison of PTAW and GTAW Torch Designs. ..............................................20-3
Figure 22-1 Heat-Affected Zone Cracking that is sometimes Characteristic of Gas
Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) or Plasma Transferred Arc Welding (PTAW).................22-2
Figure 22-2 Detail along the Fusion Line of IN 939 Filler Deposit on a IN 738 Base
Specimen using Laser Beam Welding. ...........................................................................22-3
Figure 25-1 Oxidation and TMF Data Input and Output for the Sample COATLIFE-2
Analysis..........................................................................................................................25-2
Figure 25-2 COATLIFE-2 Coating Life Diagram for the GT33+ Coating for Directionally
Solidified Base Metal in the Sample Analysis. ................................................................25-3

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Figure 28-1 Petroleum Generation as a Percent of Total Gas and Petroleum
Generation—Annual Basis in the U.S.............................................................................28-2
Figure 28-2 Petroleum Generation as a Percent of Total Gas and Petroleum
Generation—1998-99 Monthly Basis in the U.S..............................................................28-2
Figure 29-1 EPRI’s Four-Pronged Approach to Durability and Risk Assessment
Activities. ........................................................................................................................29-2
Figure 31-1 Comparison of Actual Life-Cycle Maintenance Cost to Life-Cycle LTSA
Costs and “Reference” Life-Cycle Maintenance Cost. ....................................................31-2
Figure 31-2 Components of Life-Cycle O&M Costs—an Output of EPRI’s CTCC O&M
Cost Estimator................................................................................................................31-3
Figure 31-3 CTCC O&M Cost Estimator.................................................................................31-4
Figure 35-1 Results of Optical Pyrometry Measurements and Aerothermal Analyses
Correlate well with Observed Maximum Oxidation Damage—the Leading Edge Half
of the Suction Surface at Midspan in Fr7/9FA Buckets. ..................................................35-2
Figure 35-2 TMF Life of Directionally Solidified, Single Crystal, and Equiaxed Castings. .......35-3
Figure 35-3 EPRI’s CT Three-Pronged Life Management Approach. .....................................35-4
Figure 37-1 Calculated and Measured Volume ß Fraction Versus Number of Cycles.............37-3
Figure 37-2 COATLIFE Prediction of Protective and Failed Regimes.....................................37-4
Figure 37-3 Depletion Zone Thickness Versus Exposure Time. .............................................37-5
Figure 38-1 IN939 Filler Deposit on an IN738 Specimen Heat Treated before and after
Welding (50x Magnification along the Weld Fusion Line)................................................38-2
Figure 38-2 Comparison of Creep Strength for Blade Superalloys. ........................................38-3
Figure 39-1 EPRI’s Thermal Mechanical Fatigue Model Predicted Regions of Failure that
were Borne out by Metallurgical Observation. ................................................................39-2
Figure 39-2 Comparison of Calculated Temperatures and Temperatures Determined via
Pyrometry for 9FA Buckets.............................................................................................39-3
Figure 42-1 This Nominal 300-MW CHAT Plant would be Profitable in Intermediate
Service, and to some Extent, in Baseload Service..........................................................42-3
Figure 43-1 Projected North American CT orders. .................................................................43-2
Figure 43-2 Projected North American CT Relative Market Prices. ........................................43-3
Figure 44-1 Typical CT Availability as a Function of Time after Introduction...........................44-3
Figure 44-2 Sample Risk Map Representing Total Cost of Major CT Events..........................44-4

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 3-1 Comparison of Key Variables: Welding Traditional CrMo Material (e.g., P22)
Versus P91 Steels........................................................................................................... 3-3
Table 3-2 Dissimilar Weld Combinations and Welding Approaches Involving P91 .................. 3-4
Table 3-3 Dissimilar Welding Filler Metal Selection ................................................................. 3-4
Table 3-4 Recommended PWHT Temperatures (°F) for Dissimilar Welds .............................. 3-4
Table 5-1 Alloys Included in Updated Handbook..................................................................... 5-1
Table 10-1 Relative Advantages and Disadvantages of Duct Burning....................................10-2
Table 15-1 Comparison of Basis Differentials With Firm Pipeline Tariff for Transco Z6
(Non-NY) ........................................................................................................................15-4
Table 16-1 DLN Combustor Guarantee Levels for Selected Turbine Models .........................16-4
Table 18-1 Sample Results of Combined-Cycle Inlet Air Cooling Case Study........................18-4
Table 30-1 A Representative Portion of the Pedigree Matrix for the GE Product Line,
Illustrating the Information Now Available. ......................................................................30-3
Table 41-1 Changing Basis Differential* .................................................................................41-2
Table 41-2 Different Requirements for New Gas Supplies .....................................................41-4

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PART I NOVEMBER, 2001 ISSUE

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10093037
1
MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO
NOVEMBER, 2001 ISSUE

The third 2001 issue of the Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report reviews EPRI
developments supporting CT hot section life management and related repair technologies.
Replacement parts for a new FA machine hot section now cost about $U.S.16 million. Without
a near-term source of competitive alternative parts and repair, escalating prices have not been
closely related to increased durability. And insurers are growing reluctant to cover business
interruptions stemming from extended outages needed to address hot section durability shortfalls.
The OEM strategy has been to couple performance enhancements to parts upgrades rather than
durability. The needs of the rapidly growing CT fleet for refurbished and replacement parts
along with more realistic maintenance interval guidance was raised with one major OEM by the
attendees of the recent Fall CT Operations Task Force meeting. The OEM could only respond
that the backlog of new machine production was indeed competing with fleet support resources,
and that design improvements are in the works to meet promised durability targets.
At the same time, the high prices and variable field support are encouraging new entrants with
flight engine development and repair experience into this marketplace. Alternative parts for the
popular EA machine, including directionally solidified (DS) castings, are becoming available
from several suppliers. Similarly, new repair capabilities for DS and single crystal castings are
likely to be scaled up for land-based engines. Can alternative new F-class components be far
behind?
Responding to the current particularly acute need for objective hot section inspection/
replacement interval guidance and improved repair technology, EPRI and the U.S. Department
of Energy have merged their resources to help power producers better cope with CT RAM
issues. While these additional resources are initially aimed at F-class machines, retrofit of some
of the new technology (e.g., DS castings and advanced coatings) on conventional machines
means that the entire CT generation fleet will ultimately benefit.
The technology elements are now in place to effectively manage life cycle uncertainties related
to maintenance intervals, refurbishment yields, and availability of improved durability parts at
competitive prices. Progress to date bolsters the case that a goal of reducing life cycle costs by
at least 25 percent is achievable.

John Scheibel
Technical Area Manager
New Central Stations

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2
F-CLASS LIFE MANAGEMENT YIELDS USEFUL
PROCUREMENT AND MAINTENANCE INTERVAL
GUIDANCE

EPRI efforts to develop an F-class CT life-management approach are now yielding practical
tools that power producers can use to effectively procure CT blades, optimize maintenance
intervals, and extend blade life ultimately reducing lifetime costs.

High firing temperature F-class machines have resulted in complex designs that incorporate more
temperature-limited parts and a range of protective coatings. In F-class turbines, all stages are at
or near the temperature limit of the materials, and most sections require sophisticated cooling
mechanisms. As a result, many turbine owners are finding that the hot section components of
these systems—particularly expensive first-stage blades, or buckets—are not meeting durability
targets.

The expected refurbishment interval for F-class CTs is about 24,000 equivalent operating
hours. Yet, the few reported incidents discovered during inspections in F-class machines
include complete consumption of coatings and base metal oxidation at the leading edge of
buckets in 20,000 hours of operation. In as few as 12,000 hours of operation, trailing-edge
bleeding hole cracking due to thermal mechanical fatigue (TMF) has been reported, as well
as cracking between the leading edge and mid-chord on both the pressure and suction side.
In addition, significant damage variability between blades within a row has raised questions
concerning manufacturing acceptance tolerances. Excessive damage may substantially reduce
component repairability and subsequent planned service intervals.

Hot Section Life Management Platform

To help power producers address these problems, EPRI has developed a software program called
the Hot Section Life Management Platform (HSLMP), and initially applied it to GE Frame 7FA+
1st stage blades. HSLMP input data begins with external and internal dimensional measurements
obtained from new components. Ideally, several parts are measured and sectioned to establish
manufacturing variability. However, adequate information can be collected nondestructively.
A finite element model is then designed to capture sufficient temperature-stress-strain resolution
in areas that are highly prone to damage, such as the tip, leading edge, trailing edge, and
particularly the trailing-edge cooling holes near the airfoil platform. The HSLMP is a fully
integrated, steady-state, and transient engineering model that incorporates the following:

· External gas flow using the EPRI BLADE-CT and FLOTRAN codes

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F-Class Life Management Yields Useful Procurement and Maintenance Interval Guidance

· Internal flow using a version of the NASA Cooling Passage Flow (CPF) program

· Component temperature and stress distributions using ANSYS and CPF

· EPRI COATLIFE for coating degradation and EPRI’s Material Properties Handbook for
new/degraded casting properties

The model and its inputs are further validated by internal blade flow measurements, steady state
and transient blade temperatures obtained from pyrometers on operating machines, controlled
furnace testing/metallurgical characterization of coating/casting substrates, and most importantly,
observed damage from service-aged components. Based on this validation and good correlation
between field experience and HSLMP predictions, EPRI is confident that the HSLMP accurately
captures the complex aerothermal structural conditions that are challenging hot section
component durability.

The HSLMP provides reasonable estimates of accumulated damage of coating oxidation, creep
and thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) for hot section CT components. By inputting data on
operating history, component geometry, and materials properties, along with refined damage
rules for these materials, the HSLMP methodology can readily be extended to other FA rows,
other GE turbine models, and machines from other manufacturers. EPRI reports TR-114312
and 1000318 fully describe the technical approach, verification, and first-stage blade damage
analysis results.

Procurement Guidelines

Building on this fundamental life-management work, EPRI has developed the first in a series of
procurement and acceptance guidelines for CT hot section parts. The first report (1004033) is a
guideline designed to support procurement and acceptance of 1st stage CT buckets operated in
frame 7FA+ machines. The report organizes the essential engineering elements of material
composition, design tolerances, and coating requirements into a technical specification. The
document also provides guidance on specifying, checking, and confirming the quality of parts
from original or third-party sources.

The guideline’s criteria are derived from material and coating tests that EPRI performed as well
as an independent aerothermal examination of a Frame 7FA+ bucket using HSLMP. Acceptance
criteria allow users to relate key information controlling performance and durability of any
bucket directly to a benchmark of test data, dimensional measurements, stresses, temperatures,
coating life, creep life, and TMF life. Results of this independent work are presented as
benchmarks. The guideline offers a list of key features or properties that can be measured from
part replacements and, in turn, used to reflect their conformity to the benchmark values.
Conformity infers a design whose reliability and performance are equivalent to the original part.
Figure 2-1 illustrates the type of information in the guidelines.

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 F-Class Life Management Yields Useful Procurement and Maintenance Interval Guidance

Figure 2-1
Sample from Recently Published EPRI Guidelines for Procurement and Acceptance of CT
frame 7FA+ Buckets.

The Guidelines present Sample Checklists with Illustrations, like this one on Acceptance
Criteria, Statement of Compliance, and Additional Support Documentation for Airfoil
Chord, Pitch, and Trailing edge Thickness. The Actual Numerical Acceptance Criteria are
provided in the Report Version of this Figure.

The guideline also includes results of sensitivity studies (effects of changes in geometry,
operation, or material) of critical features of the 7FA+ 1st stage bucket design. These studies
provide buyers with the means to tighten or relax the recommended acceptance limits or criteria.
The report covers the following:

· Materials and properties

· Airfoil stacking line, profiles, and wall thickness

· Leading edge and tip cooling

· Airfoil trailing edge cooling slots

· Inlet openings

· Bucket root geometry

· Moment weights

· Airflow and frequency testing

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Maintenance Interval Tracking System

Standard maintenance interval timing methods, generally based on a combination of run time and
start/stops or equivalent operating hours, may not adequately reflect actual damage experienced.
The HSLMP work can also be extended to provide a tool to help power producers track the
remaining life of CT hot section components and hence, optimally schedule inspection, repair,
and replacement.

Using HSLMP and a database for GTD 111-DS material, estimates of accumulated damage and
cycle-by-cycle estimates of life consumption can be routinely performed for blades of GE FA
machines. The critical locations where damage is first likely to compromise component integrity
are identified and tracked cycle-by-cycle. This enables power producers to effectively monitor
the accumulated damage of critical components online.

EPRI has developed a prototype maintenance interval tracking system to achieve this goal. In
this system, the HSLMP provides key parameters needed to estimate life consumption to a
Damage Tracking Module (DTM). DTM, in turn, produces a running chronicle of start-stop
cycles, estimates damage for individual cycles, and outputs cumulative damage. To do this,
DTM processes data collected via a basic plant data monitoring system for a given record of
start-stop cycles. A Damage Accumulation Rate (DAR) matrix is prepared to support the
tracking of coating, TMF, creep, and creep-TMF interaction for a specified input cycle.

While the underlying HSLMP analysis is analytically complex and typically beyond what is
normally performed in making remaining life judgments, the DTM translates HSLMP results
into readily understood percent life consumed and equivalent hours and start/stop conventions
that the OEM prescribes. Figure 2-2 describes the general approach to displaying component
damage. The clear distinction is that DTM is an objective engineering tool without bias towards
past practices or commercial considerations.

Initial DTM demonstration is planned for a Progress Energy FA+ machine in peaking operation
located at the Asheville station. The next version of the DTM will extend beyond analytical
forecasting to include nondestructive evaluation inputs from borescope observations and eddy
current coating integrity measurements. EPRI will further refine the DTM as field experience is
gathered, as well as adjust the DTM to account for design modifications that designers
incorporate into components in an ongoing effort to improve durability.

Building on the HSLMP investment, EPRI’s Advanced F-Class Life Management program is
proceeding through the remaining hot section components. Evaluation of creep-life-limited
third-stage buckets is on schedule for completion, and an evaluation of second-stage buckets
will soon follow. A parallel initiative is also proceeding for the Siemens-Westinghouse 501F
machine. In addition to the direct support from F-class owner/operators, a recent DOE CT-RAM
improvement award to EPRI will significantly help accelerate product development.

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Figure 2-2
Damage Tracking Module Approach to Displaying Calculated Thermal Mechanical Fatigue
Life Consumed.

Acknowledgments

EPRI would like to acknowledge Constellation Energy Group, Progress Energy, Tennessee
Valley Authority, KEMA, Florida Power & Light, and City Public Service of San Antonio,
which directly supported HSLMP development and provided guidance over the four-year
development period.

Further development plans for the HSLMP, procurement guidelines, and maintenance interval
tracking system are available at www.eprictcenter.com. For more information on the HSLMP,
refer to “Combustion Turbine F-Class Life Management of 1st Stage Turbine Buckets,” by
Eric S. Wan, John Scheibel, Paul Crimi, and R. Viswanathan, in Proceedings of ASME
TURBO EXPO 2002, 3-6 June 2002, Amsterdam, paper TE02. For more information,
contact Vis Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com, (650) 855-2450.

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10093037
3
9CHROME WELDING AND APPLICATION TO HRSG
HEADERS

9Chrome steels are increasingly popular for new CT plants and repairs to existing systems. The
material enables power producers to increase operating pressures and temperatures, improving
efficiency. However, when joining traditional CrMo steels to 9Chrome (e.g., connecting a header
outlet lead to a steam turbine line), 9Chrome welding processes pose challenges. To address
these difficulties, EPRI is developing improved filler metals and easier welding processes.

Increasing Use of 9Chrome Steels

A growing number of power producers have installed simple-cycle or combined-cycle CT power

plants that employ 9Chrome steels (P91, P11, and P92) for piping and tubing applications. Until
recently, P91 has been primarily used in Europe and Southeast Asia, because excess generating
capacity discouraged new plant construction in the U.S. Recent energy shortages throughout the
country have prompted renewed interest in P91 due to its unique qualities, which allow turbine
owners to increase operating pressures and temperatures to achieve higher efficiencies.

Additional benefits of P91 include enhanced creep performance properties and better strength-to-
weight ratios, which reduce the required wall thickness compared to 2¼Cr1Mo or 1¼Cr½Mo
steel. The resulting higher temperature gradient and lagging residual stresses enable better heat
dissipation, which in turn reduces thermal fatigue. In addition, use of 9Cr steels lowers
installation costs because they require less overall welding due to thinner cross sections. Given
that the cost-per-pound of P91 is very close to the cost of traditional CrMo P22 steels, P91 is the
logical choice for power producers today.

Figure 3-1 compares wall thickness for various alloys at a given elevated temperature, pressure,
and allowable strength in Europe. Note that nearly a two-thirds reduction in wall thickness
(66 mm versus 180 mm or 2.6 inches versus 7.1 inches) is possible where P91 is used in place
of P22 material. P91 provides a 44-170 percent increase in allowable strength in the 510°C -
593°C (950°F - 1100°F) temperature range. The oxidation limit is also 38°C (100°F) above
typical Grade 22 materials. P91 also offers higher allowable strengths over type 304H
(a high-temperature stainless steel) up to 610°C (1130°F).

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Figure 3-1
P91 Enables nearly a Two-Thirds Reduction in wall Thickness (66 mm Versus 180 mm)
when used in Place of P22 Material.

The Material Provides a 44-170 Percent Increase in Allowable Strength in the 510°C - 593°C
(950°F - 1100°F) Temperature Range.

Dissimilar Weld Challenges Involving 9Chrome Steels

Welding P91 requires a complex five-step process. After fitting the pipe, welders then preheat
the weld area to the pre-weld temperature (400°F or 204°C). Next, the area is welded carefully,
after which the weld must cool to at least 200°F (93°C), but preferably to room temperature.
To complete the weld, the area must be heated to a post-weld heat temperature (PWHT) of
1375-1400°F (746-760°C).

Because new installations of P91 (e.g., cogeneration or heat recovery steam generator
applications) typically involve joining together two P91 components, few welding problems
occur; vendors simply weld similar 9Cr alloys together. Problems arise when fabricators attempt
to join P91 pipe to existing CrMo or carbon steel pipe—two dissimilar weld (DSW) materials—
because different PWHT temperatures are recommended for each material.

For power producers, the most important example of dissimilar weld materials involving
9Chrome steels is the joining of a header outlet lead to a steam turbine line. While the equipment
manufacturer typically completes welding of other components prior to shipment (e.g., welds
within the heat recover steam generator), on-site fabricators must join the header outlet lead to
the steam turbine line.

PWHT is one of the single most important factors in producing satisfactory weldments in P91
materials. Welding must be conducted, regardless of thickness or diameter, with preheating and
must be followed by PWHT to ensure that ductility has been restored in the weld metal and weld
heat-affected zone. Table 3-1 illustrates the other major differences between welding P91 steels
and P22 steels.

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Table 3-1
Comparison of Key Variables: Welding Traditional CrMo Material (e.g., P22) Versus P91
Steels

Variable Base Metal

P22 P91
(Traditional CrMo Material) (9Chrome Steel)
Preheat Always Always
PWHT Sometimes Always
Normalize and temper (after bending or Sometimes Always
cold working)
Certified Material Test Report Rarely Always
Toughness requirements Rarely Always
Post bake Rarely Always (except GTAW)
Cool < 212°F (100°C) before PWHT No Yes (pending further study)
Bead sequence Rarely Always
Purge No Always
Given the variations in recommended PWHTs, welders of DSW materials face a difficult
challenge. They must heat P91 to at least 1375°F (746 °C) in order to achieve the proper
toughness, strength and stress rupture properties. But if they heat-treat the carbon at this high
temperature, the carbon’s desired properties are destroyed. Similarly, if they heat-treat the
CrMo at these temperatures, they nearly reach the transformation temperature of the alloy.

EPRI Recommendations
EPRI is assuming a lead role in developing guidelines, approaches, and weld filler materials
for similar and dissimilar P91 welds. For example, at the 9Cr Materials Fabrication and Joining
Technologies conference, held in Myrtle Beach, North Carolina in July 2001, EPRI brought
together an international forum to address challenges and best practices associated with
generation applications of 9Cr materials and components. Of particular interest to the 150
participants were key findings regarding PWHT and dissimilar welds.
Participants learned that welders must observe extreme care and planning during post weld heat
treatments of DSW involving P91. Spool or “pup” pieces (small metal pieces used to create a
gradual transition between dissimilar metals) or multiple buttering operations (multiple PWHT
processes) are often required when joining P91 to P11 or low carbon steels because tempering
temperatures necessary for P91 may exceed lower transformation temperatures for some of the
lower strength alloys. For example, in cases of multiple buttering, P91 is often buttered with P22
or B3 (2¼Cr1Mo) or lower type weld metal, followed by PWHT at P91 temperatures. Then the
field weld is made with the lower strength alloy (such as B2 or B3), followed by a subsequent
PWHT at temperatures appropriate to the lower alloy.
Typical DSW combinations and corresponding approaches are presented in Table 3-2. Weld
filler metal selection possibilities for DSWs are shown in Table 3-3, and guideline PWHT
temperatures are included in Table 3-4. In most cases, use of the lower strength weld metal
is recommended.

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Table 3-2
Dissimilar Weld Combinations and Welding Approaches Involving P91

Base Metal Combination Welding Approach

P91 to P22 B3 & PWHT @ 1350°F (732°C)

P91 to P11 Butter P91 w/B2 & PWHT @ 1350°F (732°C); Then, join w/B2 &
PWHT @ 1100°F (593°C)

P91 to SS Butter P91 w/Ni & PWHT @ 1400°F (760°C); Then join to SS w/Ni

Table 3-3
Dissimilar Welding Filler Metal Selection

P 11 22 23 91 911 92 SS
11 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 309
22 B2 B3 B3, G B3 B3 B23 09, Ni
23 B2 B3, G B3 G, Ni G, Ni G G, B9 G
91 B2 B3 G, Ni B9, G B9, G W, G, B9 Ni
911 B2 B3, G G, B9 B9, G G W, G, B9 Ni
92 B2 B3, G G, B9 B9, G G, B9 W, G Ni
SS 309 309, Ni Ni Ni Ni Ni SS, Ni

Table 3-4
Recommended PWHT Temperatures (°F) for Dissimilar Welds

P 11 22 23 91 911 92 SS
11 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 1275 ± 25 1350 max. 1350 max. 1350 max. 1275 ± 25
Butter Butter
22 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 1275 ± 25 1350 max. 1350 max. 1350 max. 1350 ± 25
Butter
23 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 None 1350 max. 1350 max. 1350 max. None
Butter Butter
91 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25
Butter Butter
911 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25
Butter Butter

92 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25

Butter Butter
SS 1275 ± 25 1350 ± 25 None 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 1400 ± 25 None
Butter Butter

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Notes:
· T23 has shown tendencies toward reheat cracking from PWHT. This alloy was originally
designed to be used without PWHT.
· T24 typically does not require PWHT. Thus, buttering may be required.
· Caution must be observed when selecting PWHT temperatures that will not encroach on the
AC1 of the lower temperature material.

Legend for Tables 3-2, 3-3, and 3-4:

G = Nonstandard composition
B2 = 1¼Cr½Mo
B3 = 2¼Cr1Mo
B9 = 9Cr1MoV
W = Tungsten modified
Ni = Nickel base (“A,” “82,” “182,” or “625”)
SS = Stainless steel, 308H, 309H, 316H, 347H, 16-8-2
Butter or buffer layers may be required.

Welding Recommendations

Each of the following methods of welding P91 poses unique advantages and disadvantages:
· FCAW: Flux Core Arc Welding
· GTAW: Gas Tungsten Arc Welding
· SAW: Submerged Arc Welding
· SMAW: Shielded Metal Arc Welding

In general, faster welding processes lead to more potential problems. Although GTAW is the
slowest process, it results in significantly fewer problems with hydrogen cracking. Most field
applications are currently performed with SMAW, which is faster than GTAW but requires that
welders pay strict attention to preheat and post-weld heat temperatures. PWHT of P91 materials
should be conducted for a minimum of two hours at 1400°F (760°C) on all heavy wall
weldments.

EPRI also recommends that welders use a spool piece and then use the highest possible PWHT
without exceeding the transformation temperature of the lower material. Welders should also
consider the thermal expansion characteristics of filler materials and attempt to match them with
the two materials being welded. The ASME SFA 5.01 provides an excellent means for
specifying the technical requirements needed for proper procurement of the welding rods used to
fill the gaps between welding joints of P91 weldments. EPRI also recommends that SMAW and
FCAW electrodes undergo actual chemical and mechanical testing on a per-lot basis to verify

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properties; satisfactory chemical analysis does not guarantee acceptable mechanical properties,
especially toughness.

EPRI’s newly launched 2002 Materials and Repair Target is currently developing new filler
materials and welding processes that will eliminate the need for PWHT processes entirely.
Preliminary results, which focus on dissimilar welds between P91 and P22, will be available by
the end of 2002 to all EPRI members.

For additional information about 9Chrome steels, refer to the following EPRI reports:
· Guideline for Welding P91 (report to be issued January 2002; draft available)
· Materials for Ultra Supercritical Fossil Power Plants (TR-114750)
· Creep Behavior of 9% CrMo Cast Steel for Application in Coal-Fired Steam Power Plants
(TR-104845)
· P91 Steel for Retrofit Headers—Material Properties (TR-103617)
· Thick-Section Welding of Modified 9Cr-1Mo (P91) Steel (TR-101394)

For more information, contact David Gandy, davgandy@epri.com, (704) 547-6198; Vis
Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com, (650) 855-2450; or Kent Coleman, kcoleman@epri.com,
(704) 547-6082.

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NEW APPROACH TO IN-SITU REPAIRS OF THERMAL
BARRIER COATINGS

A recent study proved the feasibility of performing quick, in-situ spot repairs of local damage in
thermal barrier coatings. Once developed into a mature product, this EPRI patented technology
promises to help hot section components reach their durability targets.

The durability of thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) on CT blades and vanes is a critical issue for
turbine owners. Coating life usually determines the refurbishment intervals for these high-cost
components, and many turbine owners are finding that the hot section components of these
systems—particularly expensive first-stage blades priced at $3.5M per row—are not meeting
durability targets (see Chapter 2 on Hot Section Life Management Platform for details). Of
several TBC failure modes, the most common is spallation of the ceramic layer—a partially
stabilized zirconia (PSZ) that resides on an aluminum trioxide-covered bondcoat.

Currently, repairs to TBCs involve a time-consuming and costly process in which damaged
components are removed from the turbine and shipped off-site for repair/replacement. Repairs
and replacements involve costly lost production and hardware expenses. For this reason, plant
owners would benefit from a “quick-fix” repair process that would enable them to perform an in-
situ repair. The goal is to keep turbines up and running until maintenance can be scheduled at a
less disruptive—and less costly—time.

In-Situ Repair Process Under Development

To explore the feasibility of developing a chemical precursor-based, field repair method for
TBCs, EPRI recently funded research to evaluate two such repairs: Perhydro poly silazanes
(PHPS)-derived silicon nitride Si3N4, and a sol-gel derived PSZ developed during the program.

The specimens investigated included TBC-coated, superalloy substrates of INCO 718, 738 LC,
and GTD 111 with NiCoCrAlY and CoCrAlY bondcoats. Some of the specimens were damaged
down to the bond coat and then repaired with these ceramic precursors. The researchers
conducted cyclic oxidation tests on as-coated, damaged, and damaged and repaired specimens.

Results

Results of EPRI’s feasibility study indicate that, while the PHPS-derived Si3N4 is not a good
candidate, the sol-gel derived PSZ appears to have potential as a repair material. Evaluations

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performed to date suggest that the current PSZ sol-gel, or a simple modification of it, may be
adequate for spot repairs.

Earlier this year, EPRI was granted a U.S. Patent (6235352, May 22, 2001) for this technology.
With further development in collaboration with Thor Technologies, Inc. of Albuquerque,
New Mexico over the next year, EPRI expects the sol-gel material to be developed into a
mature product for in-situ coating repairs. Future work includes determining the required
surface preparation for spot repairs, optimizing the PSZ formulation methods to reduce
porosity, determining the size limitations for spot repair, and demonstrating repair feasibility
on actual components.

For more detailed information, see EPRI report In-Situ Repair of Thermal Barrier Coatings,
1004643, or contact Vis Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com, (650) 855-2450.

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UPDATED CT MATERIAL PROPERTIES HANDBOOK

EPRI’s latest material properties handbook contains comprehensive property data on

nickel-based superalloys used in CT hot section blades. The handbook is particularly useful
for power producers seeking to optimize decisions on the run, repair, or replacement of costly
hot section components.

With the release of the EPRI reference handbook on material properties, power producers
now have a comprehensive source of data when comparing various alloys, selecting materials,
and performing remaining-life assessment calculations for CT hot section blades. Without such
data, CT operators are often forced to base their repair/replace decisions upon conservative
recommendations provided by original equipment manufacturers, resulting in premature
replacement of components and increased costs.

Generated from a database created by the Southwest Research Institute under contract to EPRI,
the data are contained in a loose-leaf notebook format for easy access and updating. Information
was developed both from literature and tests conducted on various alloys as part of this project.
Data was then collected, collated, and plotted to generate hard-copy plots included in the
handbook. For many materials, tables of raw data are also included. The handbook contains
data for a wide range of alloys (see Table 5-1).
Table 5-1
Alloys Included in Updated Handbook

Inconel Inconel 700, Inconel 939, Inconel X750, Inconel 738, Inconel 738 LC, Inconel 792

MAR MAR-M002, MAR-M200, MAR-M247

Udimet Udimet 500, Udimet 520, Udimet 700, Udimet 710, Udimet 720

GTD GTD 111 DS, GTD 111 EA

Others Rene 80, Nimonic 115

Materials Property Data

Materials data are presented in an easy-to-use format modeled after the Aerospace Structural
Metals Handbook; each page includes alloy identification, the property represented, and when
available, codes for heat treatment, chemical composition, refurbishment identification, and
coating identification. Physical properties such as density, dynamic and static modules of
elasticity, and coefficients of thermal expansion are also included, along with mechanical

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properties such as tensile, stress-rupture, creep, impact, high-cycle fatigue, low-cycle fatigue,
and thermal mechanical fatigue. Limited data are also provided for bucket materials following
in-service degradation. Tabs are included at the end of the handbook for original references,
chemical composition, and heat treatment details.

Upcoming Additions

The continued development and updating of the CT Materials Handbook during 2002 will be
handled under EPRI’s new target, Target 87—Fossil Materials and Repair. This program offers
a comprehensive package of products and services to help plant operators manage the operating
risks associated with material degradation and replacement. Included are vital resources
necessary to estimate remaining life, assess and conduct state-of-the-art repair techniques, and
decide on replacement materials.

In future editions of the handbook, EPRI plans to provide property data for other hot section
components such as nozzles (vanes), transition pieces, and combustion liners (baskets). In
addition, materials data collected since the first issuance of the Handbook in 2001 will be added
for blade materials.

Copies of the handbook are available from EPRI (report number 1004652). Users can also obtain
an electronic version of the handbook that includes a complete listing of all alloys, as well as
plans for any updates.

For more information on the CT materials handbook and related efforts, contact Vis
Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com, (650) 855-2450. For more information on the Fossil
Materials and Repair Target, contact Dave Gandy, davgandy@epri.com, (704) 547-6198.

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UPDATED CT COMPONENT REPAIR AND COATING
GUIDELINES

EPRI will be releasing an initial seven-volume set of CT repair and coating guidelines between
2001 and the end of 2002. The guidelines enable power producers to make informed
refurbishment decisions, as well as optimize maintenance schedules for hot section CT
components.

For more than a decade, EPRI has developed gas turbine hot section component repair and
coating guidelines to help power producers refurbish critical hot section components. Power
producers and repair vendors use these guidelines to perform repairs on buckets (blades), turbine
nozzles (vanes), combustion liners, and combustor transitions.

Repair Guidelines

The comprehensive, seven-volume set of repair and coating guidelines includes data for the
following conventional and advanced General Electric and Westinghouse heavy frame gas
turbines. Details about available guidelines appear later in this chapter.
· Volume 1: General Electric MS7001 Model B – Product #1004597
· Volume 2: General Electric MS6001 Model B – Product #1006429
· Volume 3: General Electric MS7001 Model F/FA – Product #1004340
· Volume 4: General Electric MS7001 Model E/EA – Product #1006503
· Volume 5: Westinghouse Models W501 A thru D – Product #1006509
· Volume 6: Westinghouse W501F – Product #1004341

Volumes 1-6 of the CT repair guidelines include detailed information on minimum requirements
for microstructural characterization, damage and dimensional inspection, stripping, mechanical
properties, appearance, quality assurance, welding and coating procedures, and heat treatment.
EPRI has ongoing plans to develop repair guidelines for the Alstom/ABB and Siemens product
lines, as well as to extend these guidelines to 50 Hz models. In addition, Volume 7: Coatings
Guidelines (product #1006513) establishes the minimum technical requirements for applying a
specified coating to a hot gas path component. This volume is intended for use in conjunction
with the companion guideline detailing the repair requirements for a specific component. This
multi-volume report consolidates and updates all previous CT repair guidelines.

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In many cases, gas turbine owners can simply insert their company’s name into the guidelines
where appropriate, print out the guideline, attach it to a purchase order, and provide the guideline
directly to a repair vendor. EPRI has worked closely with several repair vendors to develop and
refine each guideline to assure that the information contained in each is consistent with today’s
repair practices.

Available EPRI Repair and Coating Guidelines

EPRI is assembling a compendium of repair and coating guidelines that will cover GE and
Westinghouse CTs. EPRI also plans to develop guidelines for the Alstom/ABB and Siemens
product lines, as well as corresponding guidelines for 50-Hz models.

General Electric Repair Guidelines

· GE Frame 7B 1st and 3rd Stage Turbine Buckets
· GE Frame 7B 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Stage Turbine Nozzles
· GE Frame 7B Combustor Transitions—Nimonic 263 and Hastelloy X
· GE Frame 6B Non-DLN Combustion Liners and Transition Pieces
· GE Frame 6B Row 1, 2, and 3 Nozzles
· GE Frame 6B Row 1, 2, and 3 Buckets
· Guideline for Combustor Wear Extenders
· GE Frame 7F Row 1 and 2 Nozzles
· GE Frame 7F Non-DLN Combustion Liners and Transition Pieces
· GE Frame 7F Version 2.6 DLN Combustion Liner
· GE Frame 7EA Non-DLN Combustion Liners and Transition Pieces
· GE Frame 7EA Row 1 Nozzles
· GE Frame 7F Row 3 Nozzles (Feb ‘02)
· GE Frame 7F Row 1, 2, and 3 Buckets (Feb ‘02)
· GE Frame 7EA Combustion Liners, DLN (Dec ‘02)
· GE Frame 7EA Row 2 and 3 Nozzles and Blades (Dec ‘02)

Westinghouse Repair Guidelines

· Westinghouse W501 1st & 2nd Stage Turbine Blades
· Westinghouse W501 1st Stage Vane Segments (X-45 and ECY-768)
· Westinghouse W501D / D5 Combustion Baskets and Transitions
· Westinghouse W501F Combustion Baskets and Transitions (Mar ’02)

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· Westinghouse W501F Combustion Baskets, DLN (Dec ’02)

· Westinghouse W501F Row 1 and 2 Vanes (Dec ’02)
· Westinghouse W501F Row 3 and 4 Blades (Dec ’02)

Coating Guidelines
· Diffusion Chromium Aluminide Coatings for IN738 and U520 Substrates by Pack
Cementation
· Diffusion Aluminide Coatings on IN738 and U520 Substrates by Pack Cementation
· Deposition of McrAlY Coatings on IN738 and U520 Substrates by Low Pressure Plasma
Spray
· Diffusion Platinum Aluminide Coatings on IN738 and U520 Substrates by Pack Cementation
· Deposition of Diffusion Silicon Aluminide Coatings on IN738 and U520 Substrates by
Slurry Technique
· Update Exisiting McrAlY Coating Spec—add GTD111 & CM427 (Mar ’02)
· McrAlY’s with Aluminide Topcoat—GT29 Equivalent (Mar ’02)
· McrAlY’s with Aluminide Topcoat and Aluminized Cooling Passages—GT29 In+ (Dec ’02)
· McrAlY’s with Re Interlayer (Dec ’02)
· GT33+ Equivalent with Aluminide in bucket cooling holes (Dec ’02)

New Repair Methods In Development

For the past several months, EPRI has also been working with several vendors to develop laser-
based repair methods for damage in higher stressed regions of gas turbine airfoils. Currently,
blade repairs are limited to less stressed regions of the airfoil, such as the bucket tip and squealer
tips, and employ lower strength filler materials, such as Inconel 625. EPRI’s efforts have focused
on using higher strength, precipitation strengthened filler materials to repair buckets. Such fillers
enable repairs to be performed over various parts of the airfoil, including the leading and trailing
edges; areas with wall thinning from over stripping; and areas damaged by a foreign object.

To develop the laser repair technologies for land-based turbines, EPRI has teamed with three
companies: Huffman Laser (a laser manufacturer), Honeywell International (an aircraft
manufacturer and an FAA and military-approved repair vendor), and Flight Support Inc. (an FFA
and military-aircraft approved repair vendor). Currently, the team is developing repair methods
for IN738 and GTD111EA superalloy materials.

EPRI is also working with Flight Support, Inc. to demonstrate a new repair process known as
“ReCastTM” on IN738 and GTD111 materials. The process involves exposing a hot section
component to an initial, hot isostatic process (HIP); applying a filler metal similar to the base
material component using HVOF (high velocity oxy-fuel); sintering the component at high

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temperature; and applying a final HIP at the solution temperature. Flight Support, Inc. has
already verified that the process produces as much as 100 percent of the base metal tensile and
stress rupture strength on high-strength superalloys such as IN713C.

As new repair technology is reduced to practice, relevant component guidelines will be updated
to reflect such improvements. For more information on EPRI’s hot section component repair and
coating guidelines and related development, contact Dave Gandy, (704) 547-6198 or
davgandy@epri.com.

SIDEBAR: Formation of CT Repair and Maintenance Group

EPRI is pleased to announce the formation of a new focus group—the CT Repair and
Maintenance Group. The main objective of the group is provide practical review and delivery
guidance on repair technology and guidelines. In addition, the group will have the opportunity to
influence the priorities and directions of future developments. Comprised of field engineers
responsible for day-to-day maintenance and repairs of combustion turbines, participants will
benefit via early access to results, exchange of O&M experience with other power generators,
direct interactions with developers and commercializers, and timely implementation of cost-
effective repair approaches to solve their own CT fleet issues.

The CT Repair and Maintenance Group will meet twice a year, beginning in January 2002. For
more information or to join the group, contact Dave Gandy, (704) 547-6198 or
davgandy@epri.com.

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EPRI LAUNCHES CT CENTER WEB SITE:
EPRICTCENTER.COM

In September, EPRI launched its new Web site for the combustion turbine industry,
www.epriCTcenter.com. In addition to incorporating the functionality of the most complete
online database of CTs and their owner/operators (INTURB), the Web site provides a range of
information resources of particular relevance to this audience.

With the launch of this CT-specific Web portal, EPRI has built upon the foundation of the
INTURB database to provide additional strategic, market, business, and technical information to
the community of CT owners and operators. The site currently consists of the following features:
· The INTURB online database of over 1250 CT/CC sites
· The “CT Information and Resource” area, which includes categorized, frequently-asked
questions (FAQs) on various CT business issues and technologies, as well as other
information
· A directory of vendors that offer products and services in various categories
· More information on EPRI Destinations 2002 (EPRI’s member offering for 2002)
· Links to a growing volume of additional publications and features

The mission of the EPRI CT Center is to promote collaboration and noncompetitive information
exchange in the CT user community. EPRI has established this online center, which
complements EPRI’s other Web sites (see Figure 7-1), in response to suggestions and feedback
from power producers. The scope of the site includes new generation strategic planning, natural
gas pricing and supply, CT-based project development, environmental siting considerations, and
CT/combined cycle O&M issues.

CT Information and Resource Area

EPRI has assembled a significant amount of up-to-date, practical information for CT

owner/operators and organized it in a hierarchical, highly organized fashion specifically for this
Web site. Available nowhere else, this new information covers industry trends, developments,
approaches, market intelligence, and selected EPRI products and services. Review of this
material provides visitors with a perspective on the most recent information power producers
need to improve competitiveness.

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EPRI Launches CT Center Web Site: epriCTcenter.com

Figure 7-1
EpriCTcenter.com is now the Portal for CT Owners/Operators to gain Access to Technical
and Business Information on CTs.

Access is Provided to the Range of Information at epri.com, as well as the Online CT

Information Database at inturb.com.

EPRI has compiled this information in a “CT Information and Resource” portion of the site. The
topics in this area are prioritized and organized around the issues and needs of turbine owners
and operators. Furthermore, the material is organized in an easy-to-use FAQ format, with over
25 questions and answers currently on the site. Topics range from new project risk management
issues and long-term service agreement evaluations to assessments of particular components and
CT repair methods. The broad range of topics included in this section are organized into the
following major categories:
· Strategic planning and new project development
· Combustion turbines and generators
· Combined-cycle equipment

Under these major categories, information is further segmented into the following topics:
· Understanding power and fuel markets
· Strategic value and measurement of ancillary services
· Fuel supply
· New fossil generation planning
· Combined-cycle plant design considerations
· Durability surveillance of new machines
· Environmental control and siting considerations
· New generation project risk framework
· Condition monitoring and inspection techniques
· Repair technology and guidelines

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· Hot section life prediction and improvement

· Capacity enhancement
· Advanced F-class life cycle management
· Electric generators
· Operations and maintenance management tools
· Operator training
· Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) dependability

To supplement the information in the FAQ section, the CT Information and Resource area also
contains the following:
· Links to the relevant portion of EPRI Destinations 2002
· Brief descriptions and links to relevant EPRI products and services, as well as EPRI technical
reports that can be downloaded from epri.com
· Brief descriptions and links to relevant EPRI reports, products, and other deliverables that are
currently in progress
· A brief list of key upcoming events (e.g., workshops, seminars, conferences, and trade
shows) that are relevant to the topic area

In addition, a new CT vendor area of the site currently contains contact information for 50
different vendors that have been organized into five categories. Contact information provided
for these companies includes the following:
· Company name
· Contact person, title, address, phone, fax, and email address
· Company Web site URL

The EPRI CT Center vendor area will continue to evolve to meet the information needs of CT
owners. For example, EPRI will soon add vendors to the database, and vendors are invited to
send additions and corrections to the site administrator.

INTURB Enhancements

The INTURB online database contains information on power generation machines operating
worldwide, including those of traditional power producers and the growing number of
deregulated or independent power producers.

The database provides status data on models and makes, site names and locations, number of
engines per site, unit numbers and power, and NOx control—along with names, titles, addresses,
and phone numbers of pertinent plant personnel. Using the database, the more than 275
registered users (CT/CC plant owners, operators, managers and maintenance supervisors) can

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quickly identify other power producers with similar equipment who most likely have experience
with similar problems. Users can not only tap this network to obtain speedy answers to their
questions, but also contact each other to buy or swap spare parts.

The launch of the epriCTcenter.com Web site also coincides with enhancements to the INTURB
database. As a result of these changes, the process of updating CT owner/operator information is
now easier, and the underlying database is more robust. In addition to removing user-identified
“bugs,” the project team has enhanced EPRI’s back-end administrative interface to the database,
which translates into a better database for users. At the same time, more standardized data entry
is being introduced to improve the quality of the information that users receive when they run a
search for a particular manufacturer/model of turbine.

Previous users of INTURB can still access the database from www.inturb.com, or visit
www.epriCTcenter.com and follow the INTURB link. Access to the INTURB database is
restricted to CT owner/operators who have updated information in the database about CTs
they own or operate.

Future Functionality

In addition to using the INTURB Online database and other CT resources, registered users of
EPRI CT Center will soon be able to participate in online forums, called Virtual User Groups, for
their specific CT make or model. User group participants will be able to exchange information
with other CT users, thereby gaining practical knowledge and insights grounded in real-world
experience. Applying this knowledge can help participants reduce O&M costs, extend
component life, and improve their units' reliability and profit potential.

For more information, contact John Scheibel, jscheibe@epri.com, (650) 855-2850.

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MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO
SEPTEMBER, 2001 ISSUE

Power producers are procuring a large fleet of some 30 GW of CTs. The rush to seize prime
market position that produced backlogs in certain machines out to 2004 is slowing and could
lead to an oversupply condition. Some fraction of these new CTs will be built as combined
cycles from the start or converted within the first five years of life. Hence, power producers are
now focusing their attention on HRSG, steam turbine, and balance of-plant procurement for
those CTs destined to combined-cycle duty. This issue of Gas Turbine Experience and
Intelligence Report focuses on HRSGs.

While equipment procurement is always first-cost sensitive, HRSG suppliers—unlike CT

suppliers—cannot factor lucrative aftermarket replacement components sales into their business.
Some power producers are concerned that HRSG durability and reliability may be compromised
as suppliers endeavor to maintain or enhance profit margins. To help power producers with
HRSG procurement, EPRI offers SOAPP-CT for initial sizing and cost budgeting, and reports
on the HRSG procurement process and reliability considerations (see Chapter 9).

A reluctance to push hard on not-yet-mature F-class CTs for extra capacity has resulted in
prevalent adoption of supplemental firing to cover peak periods. But there are a number of
design considerations in locating burners in challenging CT exhaust environments
(see Chapter 10).

EPRI launched the HRSG Dependability Program last year in response to industry needs to
improve the reliability of combined-cycle power generation (Chapter 11). The program is
being offered as a target in EPRI’s Destinations 2002 solicitation (Chapter 13).

The first impression is that gas-fired HRSGs should be highly reliable when compared to
tube-failure prone large coal or oil-fired boilers. However, EPRI worldwide HRSG site surveys
indicate a high susceptibility to water-side failures and thermal fatigue. To address this major
cause of HRSG failures, EPRI has assembled a comprehensive set of cycle chemistry guidelines
for combined-cycle power plants (Chapter 12).
John Scheibel
Technical Area Manager
New Central Stations

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HRSG DESIGN AND PROCUREMENT GUIDANCE

EPRI offers a range of products that help power producers specify and procure heat recovery
steam generators (HRSGs).

Conceptual Design

EPRI’s State-of-the-Art Power Plant Combustion Turbine (SOAPP-CT) WorkStation provides a

tool for initial sizing and cost budgeting. SOAPP-CT incorporates actual combustion turbine
performance data into a complete heat balance design, which accepts user input for such HRSG
parameters as approach temperature, pinch point temperature, level and amount of supplemental
duct firing, exhaust pressure drop, and HRSG configuration. The WorkStation incorporates a
heat transfer surface calculation for various fuel and load conditions, with adjustments for
upgraded metallurgy for high temperature/pressure designs. EPRI is introducing the next version
of SOAPP-CT, version 6.0, which updates cost and performance information and provides a
number of enhancements, including the following:
· Periodic analysis for refined economic analysis
· User-specified duct burner fuel
· Modeling of single-shaft CT-steam generators and vertical HRSGs
· High temperature SCR for simple-cycle applications
· Improved capital cost formulations
· Inclusion of fogging as an inlet air-cooling option

For project developers considering the repowering of existing steam plants, EPRI offers
SOAPP-REPO to address the feasibility, economics, and predicted performance of a
CT-based repowered steam plant.

Steam Cycle Optimization

EPRI recently completed a HRSG optimization study using SOAPP-CT that considered
HRSG operating pressures, and pinch and approach temperatures. SOAPP-CT was used to
develop conceptual designs, performance data, capital and O&M cost estimates, and financial
results. Using an internal rate of return (IRR) approach, the study assessed whether a more
expensive, high efficiency HRSG design would increase IRR, as a function of plant capacity
factor. These analyses are included in EPRI report 1000684, Combined Cycle Plant
Optimization Studies, November 2000.

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Fuel Flexibility

Some forecasters are indicating that new CT/CC additions will significantly outpace gas supply
wellhead capacity, giving rise to the $10/MMBtu prices experienced this past winter. The EPRI
report Dual Fuel Design and Operating Considerations for New CT/CC, December 2001,
addresses expanded design features and increased O&M costs associated with an enlarged role
for distillate firing. Beyond the CT burner and associated emissions, and turbine section reduced
life due to hot corrosion, the HRSG is subject to recalculation of surface areas due to increased
CT exhaust flow, redistribution of inlet feedwater to increase stack exhaust temperature, and an
overall increase in size by 4-5%.

Procurement Guidance

An EPRI report on HRSG Design and Procurement (December 2001) provides up-to-date
descriptions of equipment, performance differences, design requirements, capital and operating
costs, project schedules, and financial considerations. Based on manufacturer interviews and
current marketplace analysis, the report includes detailed information from every major
manufacturer of industrial HRSGs, duct burners, and deaerators. In addition to contact
information, the manufacturer listings include detailed experience lists, product descriptions,
and summarized capabilities. The experience lists size, application, material selection, and
geographic location of each project. Listed manufacturers include GE Power Systems, Alstom
Power, Nooter/Eriksen, CMI, Innovative Steam Technologies, Foster Wheeler, Vogt NEM,
Deltak Corporation, Forney Corporation, Coen Company, Kansas City Deaerator, Sterling
Deaerator, and others.

To aid HRSG procurement, the report covers key reliability issues to address during
procurement, and
· Outlines the key design parameters to include in bid specifications
· Describes methods of obtaining expanded final acceptance testing
· Defines information that manufacturers must provide
· Presents a representative bid specification
· Describes new design methods and technologies

A section on HRSG operating parameters and range covers off-design and cycling operation,
and evaluates design life considerations, emissions issues, durability issues, availability issues,
and capital cost implications. Subsections address minimum conditions for operation, turndown,
water chemistry, operation of control systems, and alternate configurations (e.g., two CTs
feeding one HRSG).

For more information on HRSG design and procurement, contact EPRI’s Dale Grace,
dgrace@epri.com, (650) 855-2527.

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DESIGN AND ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR
SUPPLEMENTARY FIRED HRSGS

Approximately two-thirds of existing combined-cycle plants use duct burning, and

manufacturers such as Coen Company, Inc., Forney Corporation, and John Zink Company can
supply duct burners for new and repowered plants.

Economics of Duct Burning

A number of capacity enhancing technologies can optimize combined-cycle performance and

enhance revenue streams in new and existing plants, including gas turbine power augmentation
through steam or water injection, gas turbine inlet evaporative cooling or chilling, and
supplementary firing of heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs). Supplementary firing is often
called “duct burning,” because exhaust from the combustion turbine is fired in the duct leading to
the HRSG unit (see Figure 10-1).

Figure 10-1
The Duct Burner is Located in the Duct Work Leading the Turbine Exhaust to the HRSG.

Horizontal Burner Placement Ensures that Individual Vertical Tubes in the HRSG will not
be Exposed to Excessive Heat. (Illustration Provided by Coen Company, Inc.)

In addition to the costs associated with implementing any new generation technology—capital
cost, fuel cost, and cost of operation and maintenance—several additional factors interact to
affect the economics of duct burning, including the following:
· Presence of a regional capacity shortfall. For example, if prices and demand are very high,
such as on hot summer days in California, any additional power can be sold at high prices.

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· The local climate. Because combustion turbines operate at a specified air/fuel ratio, the
hotter, less dense inlet air on a hot day means that less fuel can be burned, reducing turbine
output. In a hot climate, duct burning may make economic sense by compensating for the
decrease in capacity during hot weather operation.
· Current status of the power producer’s emissions allowances. Because duct burning can
increase emissions, the cost of additional emissions credits must be balanced against the
possible economic gain. When power prices are sufficiently high, revenue from the
additional generating capacity may exceed the cost of the credits.

Power producers considering duct burning also address a range of pros and cons
(see Table 10-1).
Table 10-1
Relative Advantages and Disadvantages of Duct Burning

Advantages Disadvantages

Enhanced capacity during periods of peak Increased system complexity and capital cost
demand and capacity derating

Increased control over HRSG steam output Reduced system efficiency due to increased
(typically less of an issue for power generation pressure drop
than for industrial steam users)

Steam can be produced when the combustion HRSG inlet maldistribution of temperature,
turbine is down through fresh air firing (heating emission, and flow velocity can lead to tube or
air that fans blow into the duct instead of ducting damage
turbine exhaust gas)

Reduces carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned Under certain conditions (poor or long flame
hydrocarbon (UHC) emissions by providing shape), can increase CO and UHC due to
more complete combustion (primarily for older incomplete combustion; produces NOx
combustion turbines) emissions

Issues in Duct Burner Design

One duct burning challenge involves maintaining flame stability, or keeping the flames lit on the
burner element. Because turbine exhaust gas (TEG) travels through the duct at high speed, the
designer must essentially keep a flame lit in a wind tunnel. And, because TEG has already been
fired, the duct burner element is firing into an oxygen-depleted environment, compounding the
difficulty in maintaining a stable flame.

Flame stability is typically addressed by using a classic V-gutter flame stabilizer to control TEG
flow around the duct burner, creating the recirculation zone required for flame stabilization
(see Figure 10-2). The arrows indicate TEG flow in and around the flame stabilizer. Enough
TEG to stabilize the flame passes around the stabilizer into the recirculation zone (the space
just downstream of the gutters), but most of the flow is shunted away, protecting the flame from
being extinguished.

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 Design and Economic Considerations for Supplementary Fired HRSGs

Figure 10-2
This “classic” V-gutter Flame Stabilizer Controls the Flow of Exhaust Around the Heating
Element.

Illustration Provided by Coen Company, Inc.

In some cases, flame stabilizers alone cannot provide adequate flame stabilization. For example,
if the flow velocity between the elements is low and the recirculation zone is too small, the
flames may not stabilize in the desired pattern and could instead damage the duct burner
elements. In this case, baffles may be placed between the burner elements to increase flow
velocity and ensure adequate conditions for safe operation and continued combustion.

Designers must also consider the shape of the flame. Because HRSG steam tubes can usually
handle TEG temperatures of no more than 1800° F (980° C), the TEG can be safely heated from
1000° F (540° C) to an average of 1600° F (870° C) if the temperature variation is no more than
+/- 100° F (40° C)—a variation that can usually be achieved with proper duct burner design. If a
long flame is required to generate the required amount of heat for the HRSG, the duct burner
must be placed far enough away from the HRSG so that the flame does not extend into and
overheat the unit’s intake tubes. This is especially important because the first row of HRSG
superheat tubes typically employ fins constructed of high-temperature alloys, are more expensive
to replace than other tubes in the unit, and are filled with steam rather than water.

Grids and Vanes

In addition to flame stability and length, TEG velocity distribution must be considered, both
before and after it reaches the heating elements. TEG distribution varies spatially (i.e., usually
low in the center and high on the outside) and temporally in response to changes in load and
ambient conditions. In addition, the duct burner changes TEG flow and velocity, temperature,
and emissions—each of which can affect HRSG operation.

The ducts themselves are typically designed for optimal use of existing plant space without
considering velocity distribution within the duct. In a typical ducting arrangement, the duct

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expansion from the turbine to the HRSG is uneven (often as much as 45° to 55° of upward
expansion), resulting in a much higher velocity at the bottom of the duct than at the top. The
design process must address these issues to ensure that TEG velocity distribution at the heating
element enables efficient duct burner operation, and that the flow, temperature, and emissions
profile of the heated gas is in the correct range when it reaches the HRSG inlet.

The preferred technique for modifying flow velocity between the turbine and the heating
elements is to place a perforated distribution grid in the duct at a right angle to the flow before
the TEG reaches the heating elements. The degree of flow distribution modification depends on
the distribution grid’s height and the amount and pattern of the perforations, usually specified in
terms of porosity.

Another way to control airflow within the duct is to use a turning vane, which acts like a rudder,
redirecting the flow to the desired path. Turning vanes are typically used in situations of extreme
turbulence, such as fresh-air firing during a CT overhaul, when air-forcing fans cause significant
flow distribution variations. Turning vanes are also used to maintain flow distribution through
sharp angles in a duct.

Emissions Issues

The greatest emissions concerns for duct burners are CO and UHC. Improper TEG conditioning
upstream of the duct burner has the largest effect on CO and UHC emissions. Excessive TEG
velocity variations, including the presence of recirculation zones, results in poor local fuel/air
ratios in the duct burner flames, preventing complete combustion. Excessive velocity variations
downstream of the duct burner prevent complete mixing of the gases upstream of the HRSG,
leading to long flames. In this case, the flame impinges upon the first rows of HRSG tubes,
cooling the flame and quenching oxidation. As a result, CO and UHC emissions increase, and the
HRSG tubes can be damaged due to overheating.

Uneven flow velocity and emissions profiles entering the HRSG can actually increase CO
emissions. If the HRSG uses a catalyst to convert CO to CO2, the catalyst may be unable to
handle the increased concentration of CO.

NOx standards are becoming increasingly stringent. Combined-cycle plants that would have
historically been permitted at a NOx level of 3.5 ppm to 9.0 ppm are now approaching 2.0 ppm to
5.0 ppm. Some CT makers are offering NOx guarantees as low as 9.0 ppm (at 15% oxygen) using
dry low NOx burners, but achieving the lower levels needed usually requires a post-combustion
control system such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Such systems are often also used to
control NOx emissions from duct burners. The typical range of duct burner NOx guarantees that
selected duct burner manufacturers provide is 0.08 lb/MMBtu (34.4 g/GJ) to 0.12 lb/MMBtu
(51.6 g/GJ) of heat input for natural gas-fired gas turbines. Duct burner vendors provide NOx
guarantees on a case-by-case basis due to the impact of site-specific operating variables (e.g.,
oxygen content, water content, mass flow rate, and duct burner inlet temperature) on duct burner
NOx emissions. HRSG manufacturers typically offer the duct burner as part of their package and
pass on the performance guarantees to the user.

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Duct burner manufacturers are currently developing lower NOx designs that use lean combustion
with advanced stabilization techniques and/or catalytic combustion. Combustion turbine
manufacturers are using these same techniques in their dry low NOx burner designs, with the
concomitant challenges of flame stability and component durability.

EPRI plans to include information on duct burner design in an upcoming report on HRSGs. For
more information on this report, contact Dale Grace, dgrace@epri.com, (650) 855-2527. For
more information on duct burning, contact Scott Drennan, sdrennan@epri.com, (650) 855-2473.

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HRSG DEPENDABILITY PROGRAM

The HRSG Dependability Program, a target in EPRI’s Destinations 2002, addresses current
industry concerns regarding HRSGs in combined-cycle plants and is developing a set of
technical tools to improve plant operation, availability, and reliability.

Although a preponderance of reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) data on

advanced HRSG designs does not exist, EPRI’s survey of worldwide experience with these
components indicates susceptibility to waterside failures and thermal fatigue. To address this, the
HRSG Dependability Program aims to achieve the following goals:
· Limit HRSG tube failures to less than one per unit per year
· Eliminate steam turbine chemical problems (i.e., blade and disk failures, and deposition)
· Optimize HRSG chemistry
· Ensure the ability to cycle without thermal fatigue problems

The HRSG Dependability Program’s products include the following:

· Cycle chemistry guidelines
· Combined-cycle/HRSG cycle chemistry advisor (CC ChemExpert)
· HRSG chemical cleaning guidelines
· HRSG tube failure manual

Cycle Chemistry Guidelines

Inadequate water/steam cycle chemistry is a major contributor to HRSG failures. EPRI has
consolidated current knowledge of HRSG cycle chemistry and published guidelines that provide
plant operators with roadmaps for selecting and optimizing water treatments for once-through
and drum HRSGs. The publication describes the five possible cycle chemistries for HRSGs, and
for each of these, provides a set of target values and action levels for critical sample points
throughout the water and steam cycle (Chapter 12).

Continuing development and direct feedback and monitoring of results from plants are being
used to revise the guidelines periodically. Updates are also being incorporated into other target
applications such as the CC ChemExpert.

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Combined-Cycle/HRSG Cycle Chemistry Advisor (CC ChemExpert)

Building on the cycle chemistry guidelines for combined-cycle/HRSG plants, EPRI is

developing a cycle chemistry expert system advisor to facilitate application of the knowledge
underlying the guidelines. CC ChemExpert provides advice to operators and chemists on
controlling cycle water chemistry in all combined-cycle/HRSG plant configurations. Users can
customize the system to their particular plant configuration and chemistries. The system
evaluates cycle performance, displays and reports on operator information, and provides expert
advice in the form of messages and corrective operating procedures. The Web-enabled system
will be integrated into users’ plant control system, and a prototype will be available later this
year.

The CC ChemExpert will also be offered as an application service that will include real-time
plant monitoring via data collected on-site and transferred via the Internet to the CC ChemExpert
Advisor. The Advisor will perform real-time monitoring of system conditions and send alerts and
alarms to operators’ or chemists’ e-mail, cell phones, or pagers (see Figure 11-1).

Figure 11-1
CC ChemExpert will Provide the Cornerstone of a Cycle Chemistry Monitoring Service.

Client Site Software will Collect and Transfer Data Securely to CC ChemExpert, which
Analyzes the Data in Real-Time and Displays Results on a Secure Web page. The Software
will send Alerts and Alarms via email to Personal Accounts, Cell Phones, or Pagers.

HRSG Chemical Cleaning Guidelines

Although one of the goals of the target is to eliminate the need to chemically clean, avoiding
cleaning requires optimization of feedwater treatment to minimize transport of corrosion
products. Past operation with non-optimized treatment has already resulted in deposits on the
evaporator and economizer circuits of an increasing number of HRSGs, which will ultimately

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require chemical cleaning (see Figure 11-2). For the first time, EPRI is developing a
comprehensive guideline for chemically cleaning HRSGs, based on similar guidelines that exist
for conventional steam plants.

Figure 11-2
Permissible Specific Deposit Weight Limits as a Function of Boiler Pressure for
Conventional Fossil Plants.

Similar Data are being Developed for HRSGs as part of EPRI’s HRSG Dependability
Program.

HRSG Tube Failure Manual

Currently, no comprehensive database on HRSG tube failures exists. EPRI is developing a first-
of-its-kind document to address all aspects of controlling HRSG tube failure (HTF). The HRSG
Tube Failure Manual describes all known tube failure mechanisms, identifies possible root
causes, documents the means to determine and confirm root causes, and describes methods to
overcome each mechanism. The manual also explains how changing plant conditions (e.g.,
increasing temperatures or cycling) may change or introduce new HTFs. The manual provides
the basis for developing HTF statistics and an expert system software module to help HRSG
owner/operators identify and locate failure-susceptible areas of tubing. To complement the
expert system, EPRI is developing guidelines for nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of HRSGs
that take into account HRSG-specific NDE issues, such as difficulty of access and the use of
finned tubes.

For more information on the HRSG Dependability Program, contact EPRI’s Barry Dooley,
bdooley@epri.com, (650) 855-2458.

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CYCLE CHEMISTRY GUIDELINES IMPROVE HRSG
RELIABILITY

Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) failures are key contributors to unreliability in
combined-cycle power plants, and inadequate water chemistry is a major cause of HRSG
failures. A recent EPRI report, Interim Cycle Chemistry Guidelines for Combined-Cycle Steam
Generators (TR-110051), contains detailed procedures and roadmaps for selecting and
optimizing feedwater and boiler water treatments for combined-cycle units with drum or once-
through HRSGs. The guidelines can help operators develop an effective cycle chemistry program
and enhance overall plant availability and reliability.

HRSG Complexity and Chemistry Problems

Heat recovery steam generators were originally designed to produce steam at one pressure level,
without supplementary firing. Over the past decade, HRSG designs have become far more
complex. Today once-through or recirculating HRSGs may function at multiple pressures with
superheat and reheat. Failures and operating problems have accompanied this increased
complexity, in part because the optimal cycle chemistry must be specified for each unique
configuration.

Sub optimal cycle chemistry contributes to HRSG tube failures from flow-accelerated corrosion
(FAC), hydrogen damage, acid phosphate corrosion, and other mechanisms. The carryover of
solids from drum HRSG units has led to deposition and corrosion in turbines, including stress
corrosion cracking. HRSGs tend to be compact and sometimes employ horizontal tube
arrangements. Horizontal tubes in low-pressure service are particularly prone to FAC, while
intermediate and high-pressure tubes are subject to steam blanketing and dryout. The units are
capable of rapid startup and shutdown, making them well suited to peaking operation. However,
this type of service increases the probability of thermal fatigue problems and corrosion fatigue
damage. This service may also result in ineffective circulation, which can lead to under-deposit
corrosion. In many cases the chemistry programs in HRSG facilities do not address protection of
equipment during shutdowns and idle periods. Oxygen ingress during shutdown, for example,
can cause pitting corrosion.

Hence, managing cycle chemistry is a top priority and a technical challenge for plant operators
striving to maintain reliability, availability, and profitability in competitive power markets.
Automation compounds the challenge. Plants are minimally staffed and typically cannot afford
the luxury of an on-site chemist to monitor and control feedwater and boiler-water purity.

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Guidelines Are an Industry First

EPRI’s report provides the first and only comprehensive cycle chemistry guidelines for
combined-cycle power plants. The guidelines are a key element of EPRI’s comprehensive HRSG
Dependability Program, which is developing a suite of tools to optimize HRSG operation (see
Chapter 11). By following the guidelines, plant operators can accomplish the following
objectives aimed at improving operating efficiency and reducing failures in HRSG tubing and
losses in turbine availability:
· Select and optimize boiler water and feedwater treatments
· Minimize corrodent concentrations
· Minimize ingress of corrodents
· Reduce the generation and transport of corrosion products
These objectives are based on understanding the effects of impurities on cycle component
materials under stress and heat transfer conditions, as well as knowledge of how the impurities
are chemically transported throughout the water and steam cycle.
The guidelines describe the following five cycle chemistry treatment regimes that are available
for HRSGs:
· Phosphate treatment (PT)
· Equilibrium phosphate treatment (EPT)
· All-volatile treatment (AVT)
· Caustic treatment (CT)
· Oxygenated treatment (OT)
All five are available for drum-type HRSGs, while AVT and OT are only available for once-
through units.
Phosphate treatments (PT and EPT) involve the use of phosphate salts to control corrosion and
are the most common form of corrosion protection for drum-type HRSGs used with combined
cycles. Unless chemistries are carefully controlled, units under phosphate treatment can
experience tube damage from a phenomenon called phosphate hideout. The guidelines provide
target values for key parameters such as pH, phosphate concentration, and sodium-to-phosphate
ratio so that phosphate hideout can be avoided in units under PT and EPT.
In AVT, ammonia (and sometimes hydrazine) is added to feedwater to provide chemical
conditions that protect the boiler, superheater, reheater, turbine, and feedwater heaters against
corrosion without further chemical additions. AVT can be used in both once-through and drum-
type HRSGs. Many cases of severe FAC have been reported on HRSGs operating on AVT, and
excessive reducing agents in the pre-HRSG circuits may be responsible. Nevertheless, AVT is
popular due to its simplicity and the fact that excellent cycle chemistry is possible when proper
limits are vigilantly maintained. The use of AVT, for example, reduces the need for additional
chemicals such as phosphates, and thereby precludes phosphate hideout and minimizes boiler
tube deposits and under-deposit corrosion.

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CT, which uses sodium hydroxide to combat corrosion, is most applicable where PT approaches
have been evaluated and found unsatisfactory. It should be also considered in applications where
there is a significant risk of cycle contamination such that AVT and OT cannot be used. CT
treatment of HRSG boiler water significantly increases the amount of chloride that can be
tolerated without corrosion, compared to AVT or EPT.
OT uses oxygenated high-purity water to minimize corrosion and FAC. This treatment is
applicable to both once-through and drum units. The use of high purity water is mandatory for
optimum results with this treatment. Condensate polishing is the usual means for achieving the
desired purity.
For each of the five chemistries, the report includes a chapter that provides a set of target values
and action levels for critical sample points throughout the water and steam cycle.

Selecting Optimal Chemical Treatment

The guidelines provide advice and roadmaps for selecting the feedwater and boiler water
chemistries for each HRSG pressure circuit and for optimizing the chosen treatment (see Figures
12-1 and 12-2). The overall process involves first selecting the feedwater treatment and then
selecting and optimizing boiler water treatment.
Although feedwater systems for HRSGs are relatively simple, the choice of chemistry is crucial
to reliable operation of the combined cycle. The main objectives for feedwater treatment are to
minimize the generation and transport of iron oxides into the HRSG and turbine, and to prevent
corrosion of the pre-HRSG cycle components, including the economizer or preheater, during
operation and layup.

Figure 12-1
Roadmap for Optimizing Feedwater Treatment for all-Ferrous once-through and Drum
Units.

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Cycle Chemistry Guidelines Improve HRSG Reliability

Figure 12-2
Roadmap for Drum HRSG Boiler Water Treatment Selection.

Because HRSGs basically have all-ferrous metallurgy, there are three options for feedwater
treatment: AVT with ammonia or an alkalizing agent and a reducing agent, AVT without the
reducing agent, and OT. Field-testing determines which treatment is most effective. To optimize
feedwater chemistry, the report provides a detailed roadmap and step-by-step methodology that
facilitates the evaluation of reducing agent and oxygen scavenger requirements.

Selecting and optimizing boiler water treatment follows the procedure for feedwater treatment.
For once-through systems, only AVT and OT are suitable, so the selection/optimization process
is the same as that used for feedwater. Multiple-pressure drum HRSGs, however, pose challenges
because the optimum chemistry may be different for individual pressure stages. The guidelines’
roadmap for HRSG boiler water treatment selection should thus be applied to each HRSG
pressure circuit individually. During the process, operators also need to consider the system as a
whole, paying attention to interactions of treatments applied in different parts of the system.
After following this selection process, operators should consult the appropriate chemistry section
of the guidelines. Each of these sections describes procedures for further optimizing the boiler
water chemistry choice or converting from one chemistry to another.

For more information on the cycle chemistry guidelines, contact EPRI’s Barry Dooley,
bdooley@epri.com, (650) 855-2458.

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EPRI DESTINATIONS 2002 INCLUDES ROBUST CT
PROGRAM

EPRI’s recently launched “Destinations 2002” membership solicitation describes a broad

program of technology development, including a continuing strong emphasis on combustion
turbine and combined-cycle technology. Details are available on the new interactive Destinations
Website (www.epri.com/destinations), which also enables EPRI clients to select solutions for
their particular business and strategic goals.

EPRI’s CT activities are delivered through two primary targets: Target 79, Combustion Turbine
and Combined-Cycle O&M and Target 80, New Combustion Turbine /Combined Cycle Design,
Repowering, and Risk Mitigation. Two related targets are also of interest to the CT community:
Target 67, Understanding Power and Fuel Markets and Generation Response and Target 88, Heat
Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) Dependability.

Target 79, Combustion Turbine and Combined-Cycle O&M, aims to develop technology to
reduce the life-cycle cost of CT and combined cycle operations by 25%. Base program projects
include the following:
· Condition Monitoring and Inspection Techniques
· Combustion Turbine Repair Technology and Guidelines
· Hot-Section Life Prediction and Improvement
· CT Capacity Enhancement
· CT/Combined Cycle Plant Maintenance Management Tools

Also available as a separately priced project set of Target 79 is Advanced F-Class CT Life
Management.

Target 80, New Combustion Turbine/Combined Cycle Design, Repowering, and Risk
Mitigation, provides an objective assessment of trends and issues associated with CT and
combined-cycle technology and its evolving role in a deregulated, natural gas-preferred
marketplace. Base program projects include the following:
· Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report
· Durability Surveillance of New Machines
· New Generation Project Risk Assessment Framework
· Combined-Cycle Plant Design Considerations

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Separately funded optional project sets include the following:

· State-of-the-Art Power Plant (SOAPP) Combustion Turbine Workstation Background and
Annual Updates
· New and Repowered Plants—Regional Markets, Asset Valuation, and Technology
· Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) and Post-Combustion System Issues for Combustion
Turbines

Target 67, Understanding Power and Fuel Markets and Generation Response, evaluates
boom/bust risk and structural change in natural gas, coal, and power industries; advances fuel
supply/market analysis and procurement practices; and provides methods to integrate technical
and market risk for sustainable and reliable operations. This target is the principal EPRI source
for business analysis of the power generation industry. Base program projects include the
following:
· Fuel and Power Markets, Asset Transactions, and Asset Development
· Reevaluating Gas versus Coal Choices

Optional project sets include the following:

· Cycling Impacts: Wear and Tear Effects for Bidding, Budgeting, Reliability
· Strategic Value and Measurement of Ancillary Services
· Natural Gas Supply and Management for Power Generation
· Coal Supply and Procurement
· Fossil Generation Asset Management and Valuation

Target 88, Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) Dependability, aims to provide guidelines,
technology, and training materials that together assist in avoiding the major damage and failure
mechanisms in combined-cycle/HRSG plants. Projects include the following:
· HRSG Cycle Chemistry Guidelines
· Combined Cycle HRSG Chemistry Advisor (CC ChemExpert)
· HRSG Tube Failures and Life Assessment
· HRSG Applications Services and Training

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MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO MAY, 2001
ISSUE

As summer approaches, EPRI personnel in the Palo Alto, California office are bracing for the
impact of power shortages and the disruption of rolling blackouts. By the end of 2003, the State
of California assures us that supply and demand will return to balance.
A problem for power producers that is being felt not only in California is high natural gas prices.
At the last CT advisory meeting in Chandler, Arizona, the gas price increase was a prevalent
topic during the roundtable discussions. EPRI and others have expressed concerns about the rush
to gas and the rapid depletion rates of gas fields that constituted the surplus supply “bubble” for
the past several years. Fueled by optimistic projections of $2-3.50/MMBtu ($1.90-3.30/GJ)
natural gas, rising fuel costs are forcing power producers to revise their operations forecasts,
which will likely translate into lower capacity factors and more cycling. Plants without backup
distillate fuel are particularly vulnerable to the rising prices. This expanded issue of Gas
Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report examines the fundamentals underlying natural
gas prices (Chapter 15).
Environmental permitting is a key consideration for developers of new CT projects. EPRI has
launched a focused project to address the relationship between post-combustion control
technology choices, such as SCR and alternative ammonia-free processes, and the trend towards
more stringent emission levels. The economic motivation to burn lower cost distillates further
compounds emission control issues, while increasing hot section maintenance (see Chapter 16).
EPRI’s newly released CT Project Risk Analyzer addresses the need to more fully examine
RAM life-cycle data in making initial machine selections and considering outsourcing of costly
parts repair and replacement (see Chapter 17). To develop this tool, EPRI staff worked
extensively with power producers, reviewing OEM service agreements. We used insights drawn
from these interactions to guide development of the Risk Analyzer and are incorporating lessons
learned into the complementary Project Risk Mitigation and Evaluation report that will be
updated this year.
We have also taken a hard look at design feature tradeoffs in combined cycles. While
standardized designs can help control first costs and compress construction time, site-specific
performance and life-cycle costs can be compromised in standard, one-size-fits-all designs.
EPRI’s recent study (summarized in Chapter 18) examines the choice of inlet cooling techniques
and heat recovery steam generator pressure levels.
John Scheibel
Technical Area Manager
New Central Stations

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FUEL SUPPLY FOR NEW GAS-FIRED CAPACITY

Developing a fuel supply strategy that is appropriate for each CT project involves the following
five basic components:
· Building a lateral to a pipeline (i.e., the “last inch”)
· Determining winter fuel supply requirements
· Determining the type of transportation service required for the facility (e.g., interruptible or
firm)
· Assessing how the facility will handle variations in load requirements (i.e., balancing)
· Obtaining gas supplies

This article covers these areas of fuel supply strategy.

Last Inch and Winter Fuel

Usually the first step of a supply strategy for a power project is to determine to which pipeline,
or pipelines, the project will be connected. In most instances, project developers opt to pay an
annual tariff for use and maintenance of the lateral that the pipeline constructs. In some cases, the
lateral tariff is a small part of the overall tariff that the developer pays the pipeline, if the plant
selects firm service on that pipeline.

For most regions of the country, a critical component to overall fuel supply strategy is to
determine the operating requirements of the plant during the winter season, when pipeline
capacity is often a scarce commodity. If the plant operates every day, except for maintenance
periods, without dual-fuel capability, then firm transportation service is usually required. If the
plant has dual-fuel capability or can be interrupted in the winter season, then some form of
interruptible transportation services, which are less costly, may be appropriate. A major factor in
determining whether the unit can burn an alternate fuel is the air permit for the facility (see
Chapter 16, Gas Turbine Environmental Siting Considerations).

Type Of Service

As a result of the steady deregulation of the gas industry, the following types of transportation
services are available:
· Firm transportation service (FT) provides the customer with primary rights at selected
receipt and delivery points (the plant meter) for gas supply. One of the most expensive forms

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of gas transportation, FT obligates the developer to pay monthly demand charges for a
specified amount of pipeline capacity, whether used or unused. Unused firm service can
usually be resold.
· No-notice service (NNS) is a form of firm transportation service that allows the customer to
vary its daily gas requirements up to a specified maximum without prior nominations,
avoiding balancing penalties. This most expensive type of transportation service was
designed primarily for local distribution companies (LDCs).
· Secondary firm/capacity release is second in priority to primary firm and can be “bumped”
by the pipeline, after the requisite notice, if primary firm shippers request service, as part of
the nomination process, or at any time for NNS customers. The original holder of capacity or
“replacement shippers” may schedule service to secondary points. FERC has established a
two-year experimental program whereby shippers may release capacity on the short-term
market at prices in excess of the maximum approved rate. It also allows pipelines to file
peak/off-peak and term differentiated rate structures, which can be tailored to the specific
needs of a plant.
· Interruptible service is the lowest priority, the least costly transportation service, and is
made available by the pipeline when capacity would otherwise go unused. The first service to
be curtailed, interruptible capacity on most pipelines currently is scheduled based upon the
economic queue (i.e., shippers offering to pay the highest rates are scheduled first).
· Segmentation allows the customer to choose different types of pipeline services for each of
the segments for transporting gas from a supply region to its final destination. A typical use
of this alternative is to secure firm transportation in the market center and use interruptible
transportation for the transportation segment outside the market center to a major supply
region. This approach can be used to minimize the cost of firm service in an area where the
scarcity of pipeline capacity is primarily in the market area that the power plant serves.

The most difficult fuel-related task is to maximize the operation of the unit with the possibility of
some interruption of gas supplies during periods of peak winter demand. If significant
interruption may occur, then the firm transportation option typically enables the developer to
optimize the plant’s overall gross margin.

An assessment of market information can be used to provide some insight into the question of
whether to rely on firm or interruptible transportation, assuming no or limited dual-fuel
capability.

Market Assessment

Over the last decade, market mechanisms, commonly called the basis—or location—differential,
have evolved that value pipeline capacity or specific segments of pipeline capacity. The basis
differential is the difference between the price of gas in the supply region and the price in a
market center; it reflects the market’s determination of the cost to ship gas from the supply point
to a specific market or demand center. In broad terms, when a basis differential is below the
tariff for the pipeline, then excess pipeline capacity exists. Conversely, when the basis
differential approaches, or exceeds, the pipeline tariff then capacity on that pipeline is scarce.

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Basis differentials are available on a forward basis for specific months of the year; a summer
basis differential is usually defined as April through October, and a winter basis differential is
defined as November through March.

Developers focus on the historical and future winter basis differential for the pipelines providing
service to the plant. Figure 15-1 illustrates the historical basis differentials for two of the
pipelines providing service to the PJM region, while Figure 15-2 illustrates the futures valuation
of these basis differentials. Based on historical basis differentials, pipeline capacity in the region
has been more than adequate for demand even during the winter. As a result, the use of
interruptible capacity was a viable option. However, in 2000 the market signals for the region
changed as the basis differentials spiked during January and February to at least $8.00 per
MMBTU [$7.58/GJ] greater than the pipeline tariff. A plant that was online at this time and
required to operate either relied on its dual-fuel capability or purchased released pipeline
capacity at these elevated figures. As illustrated in Table 15-1 below, the average cost of
$0.73/MMBTU ($0.69/GJ) is greater than the firm pipeline tariff of $0.68/MMBTU ($0.64/GJ),
despite purchases at the winter peak price of $6.00/MMBTU ($5.69/GJ) for only 25 days. This
shows that with prices at these elevated levels for only three or four weeks, using firm pipeline
capacity becomes a lower cost and more reliable alternative, even when the value of pipeline
capacity during the summer is well below the firm tariff rate.

Figure 15-1
Daily Basis Differential with Henry Hub.

Note: $1.00/MMBTU = $0.95/GJ; $8.00/MMBTU = $7.58/GJ

Winter 1999/2000 events have changed the market’s assessment of the value of pipeline capacity
in the PJM region, as illustrated by recent quotes for future basis differentials (see Figure 15-2).
The current market assessment is that winter capacity will be scarce and thus at a value greater
than the tariff for this capacity. In addition, the average basis differential for the entire year will
be equal to or greater than the Transco Z6 (Non-NY) tariff, but still somewhat below the TETCO
M3 tariff. This means that plants in the PJM region connected to Transco that need to operate the
entire year should carefully consider the use of firm transportation, while those connected to

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TETCO may still be able to rely on some form of interruptible or released capacity
transportation, particularly if they have some dual-fuel capability.

Figure 15-2
Basis Differential with Henry Hub.

Table 15-1
Comparison of Basis Differentials With Firm Pipeline Tariff for Transco Z6 (Non-NY)

PERIOD DAYS COST ($/MMBTU) $/GJ

I. BASIS DIFFERENTIAL

Winter Peak 25 6.00 5.69

Winter Non-Peak 126 0.47 0.45

Summer 214 0.26 0.25

Average 365 0.73 0.69

II. FIRM PIPELINE TARIFF 365 0.68 0.64

Balancing

Another aspect of the overall fuel supply strategy for a power plant is to assess what variations
will occur in fuel supply requirements and how such variations can be accommodated.

The limited ability of pipelines to accommodate variations in power plant load requirements will
be exacerbated in the future when a large amount of this new gas-fired capacity comes online. As
a result, pipelines have implemented balancing requirements to ensure that customers use only
the gas they have nominated. The significant variance in the balancing requirements among the
various gas pipelines serving the nation is due to the different physical characteristics of the
various pipelines. In the worst case, 1/24 of the daily gas nomination must be used within each
hour, which prevents power producers from operating at maximum capacity during peak hours

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and at minimum capacity during off-peak hours. For a price, some pipelines in the industry are
beginning to offer mid-day nominations, as well as parking and lending services that can be used
to accommodate the swing in fuel requirements. Monthly balancing requirements and seasonal
variations in load requirements must also be evaluated.

For many plants, the best mechanism for handling variations in fuel supply requirements is
access to storage. Storage is particularly useful for developers that operate several plants in a
region. Developer must integrate their strategy for storage needs with the overall transportation
strategy. For example, the developer may be able to limit the need for firm transportation
capacity to be the distance between the storage site and the power plant. Of course, the storage
facility must be capable of both high deliverability and multiple cycles per year.

Gas Supply

Obtaining gas supplies is usually addressed after the basic elements of the transportation
strategy, because the pipeline providing service to the plant often dictates which supply regions
can be accessed.

With the transition of the gas market over the last 15 years from bundled, regulated industry to a
deregulated, unbundled one, the market for gas supplies has become very liquid. As a result,
most consumers do not enter into long-term contracts with producers for gas supplies from a
particular gas field. Instead, both producers and consumers tend to buy and sell their gas supplies
at major gas hubs. Furthermore, most contracts for gas supplies are with marketing entities,
which includes the marketing affiliates of the major producers. Contracts with marketing firms
tend to be relatively short term (i.e., daily, monthly or seasonal) and usually at the current market
prices, which are well known for the liquid hubs.

Many developers maintain contacts with a wide variety of markets that offer gas supplies at
the particular hub of interest. The approach assures competition among markets and ensures
consistent market prices of gas supplies. Developers typically arrange a portfolio of gas
supplies—that include seasonal contracts, monthly contracts, and daily purchases—from one
or more marketers. Seasonal contracts usually represent close to the minimum amount of gas
the facility requires. Additional features include the following:
· Reselling Gas Supplies: Excess supplies, if purchased at a liquid point, can be sold into
the market, which is particularly important when unplanned plant outages occur.
· Integration With Transportation: The developer can purchase both transportation
capacity and gas supplies for any segment of the portfolio from a marketer. Alternatively,
the developer and marketer can agree on delivered price for gas supplies to the plant or to a
location where the developer has firm transportation.
· Recall Rights: With dual-fuel capability, a developer can benefit from obtaining an
integrated gas supply and transportation contract with a marketer that allows the marketer to
recall the gas supplies and transportation for specified number of days. Most commonly used
for winter seasonal contracts, this feature allows the developer to significantly lower the cost

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of gas supplies. This cost reduction must be compared to the additional cost of having to burn
an alternative fuel.
· Futures Markets: Developers need to follow both the cash and futures prices for gas in their
region, as contracts can be structured based upon either pricing mechanism. The significant
attribute of the futures market is that gas prices on seasonal contracts can be locked in prior
to taking deliveries. In this approach, the developer must secure transportation from the
Henry Hub to the plant, or lock in a basis differential with a marketer. Integrating future
prices based on the NYMEX also requires the developer to manage the risk of the forward
position taken with such an approach.

The requirement to contract, nominate and track gas supplies on a daily basis can be a time
consuming, but important task, particularly when balancing penalties are involved. For some
developers, most of this task can be turned over to a marketer for a fee—typically an optimal
approach due to the marketer’s economies of scale.

EPRI’s Option Value Package on Natural Gas Supply and Management for Power Generation
provides an in-depth analysis in this area. For more information on fuel supply strategies for CT
plants, contact EPRI’s Jeremy Platt, jplatt@epri.com, (650) 855-2628.

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GAS TURBINE ENVIRONMENTAL SITING
CONSIDERATIONS

A recently released EPRI report, Gas Turbine Environmental Siting Considerations (EPRI
1000651), presents pertinent information for power producers faced with air quality permitting
decisions for combustion turbines in today’s rapidly evolving technical and regulatory
environment.

Air Quality Compliance Complexity

In the past two years, the number of gas turbine purchases by power producers has increased
dramatically. Concurrently, emission limits throughout the country for nitrogen oxide (NOx),
carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM10), and volatile organic compounds (VOC) are
becoming more stringent. The technological and regulatory complexities of air quality
compliance can significantly delay or add cost to power generation projects, or even result in
project cancellation. Power producers are seeking to understand the potential complexities that
may arise, their solutions, and the project characteristics that may trigger these circumstances.

New Environmental Siting Report

EPRI’s comprehensive report compiles the most recent information on the siting, environmental
compliance and permitting of gas turbine power projects. Specifically, it discusses current air
quality permitting requirements, and the capabilities and limitations of emission control and
measurement systems to meet these requirements. In addition, the report includes an overview of
the air permitting process with an in-depth examination of local permitting requirements for the
areas of the country with the most stringent emission limits. Four operating CT facilities and
three recently permitted CT facilities are profiled, and their air quality permits are included in a
200-page appendix.

The report also addresses emerging trends in air permitting, including the increasingly stringent
emission levels for NOx, CO, VOC, and PM10, and the increased emphasis on measurement and
control of organic air toxics such as formaldehyde and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH).
Throughout the report, lists of resources for further information are provided, including Web
resources on CT control technology, regulatory agency Web sites and contact persons, and
control technology vendor contact information.

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Air Quality Siting and Permitting Regulatory Issues

One of the most important aspects of a successful gas turbine project is site evaluation and
suitability, which involves not only an infrastructure evaluation but also consideration of whether
the gas turbine project can meet an air agency jurisdiction’s requirements. The stringency of
emission levels is typically based on whether a source is sited in an ozone attainment or
nonattainment area (see Figure 16-1). The air quality regulatory requirements for siting and
permitting a gas turbine are based on (a) estimating emissions to determine regulatory
applicability; (b) identifying applicable permit requirements (e.g., control technology
requirements, emission offsets, and air quality modeling impacts); and (c) considering other
regulatory requirements such as air toxics impacts and regional impacts.

Figure 16-1
Overview of Air Quality Permitting Requirements.

Highlights of Emissions Control Technology Findings

The report overviews the full range of pollutant-specific emissions control technology options,
including the following:
· Water/steam injection
· Dry low-NOx (DLN) combustors
· Selective catalytic reduction (SCR)

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· SCR reagent options

· Standard temperature SCR performance
· High temperature SCR (simple cycle applications)

Information regarding gas turbine manufacturers and pollution control technology vendors is
also documented in order to provide an overview of the available equipment, performance issues,
and resources for project development. Highlights of key emissions control findings are
described below.

Low-NOx Burners Offer Benefits and Trade-Offs

Conventional combustors are diffusion controlled, where fuel and air are injected separately;
combustion occurs locally at stoichiometric interfaces, which can generate hot spots that produce
high levels of NOx.

In contrast, DLN combustor technology premixes air and a lean fuel mixture that significantly
reduces peak flame temperature and thermal NOx formation. Another important advantage of the
DLN combustor is that the amount of NOx formed does not increase with residence time. Since
long residence times are required to minimize CO and unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) emissions,
DLN systems can achieve low CO and UHC emissions while maintaining low NOx levels.

For selected turbine models, Table 16-1 shows the guaranteed NOx levels for DLN combustors
offered by major CT suppliers.

However, DLN burners pose trade-offs. Due to flame instability limitations of the DLN
combustor below approximately 50 percent of rated load, the turbine is typically operated in a
conventional diffusion flame mode at low load levels, resulting in higher NOx levels. DLN
combustors also tend to create harmonics in the combustor that may result in vibration and
acoustic noise. In addition, O&M costs for turbines equipped with DLN can be higher than
expected due to a variety of factors, including replacement of blades and vanes due to damage
resulting from dynamic pressure pulsation, and combustor sensitivity to changes in fuel
composition. DLN combustors can also experience “flashback,” in which fuel upstream of the
burner ignites prematurely, damaging combustor components.

Virtually all DLN combustors in commercial operation are designed for use with gaseous fuels.
Some manufacturers are now offering dual-fuel DLN combustors. However, DLN operation on
liquid fuels has been problematic due to issues involving liquid evaporation and auto-ignition.
This consideration becomes more important as power producers consider converting from
natural-gas-only to dual-fuel operation as natural gas prices rise.

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Table 16-1
DLN Combustor Guarantee Levels for Selected Turbine Models

Manufacturer Turbine Model Power Output Guarantee Level - Natural

(MW) Gas (ppm at 15% O2)

General Electric Frame Series 7FA plus enhanced 170 9

7FA plus 170 15
7FA 170 25
7EA 83 9 or 25
6B 38 9 or 25

General Electric - Aeroderivative LM6000 42 25

LM2500 23 25

Siemens-Westinghouse V84.3a2 170 15

V84.3 154 25
V84.2 106 9 or 25
501G 250 25
501F 185 15 or 25
501D5 115 25

Alstom (formerly ABB) GT24 166 25*

GT13E2 165 25*
GT10C 30 15
*Note: Alstom has indicated that it is probable that these machines could be guaranteed at 15 ppm,
though all units sold to date have used SCR for NO control and guarantee lower than 25 ppm has not
x

been required.

Ammonia Slip Issues

The most common NOx control method for new combined cycle power plants permitted at or less
than 9.0 ppm is a DLN combustor combined with a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system.
SCR is a mature technology, with hundreds of installations currently operating in the U.S. on gas
turbines, boilers, and internal combustion engines. SCR uses ammonia as the reducing reagent in
the catalytic process, and a certain amount of ammonia may pass through the catalyst unreacted
and be emitted as “ammonia slip.” Many state and local air quality agencies consider ammonia to
be a hazardous material. In most cases, ammonia slip is currently limited by permit condition to
either 5 or 10 ppm at 15 percent O2.
In addition to pollution concerns, ammonia slip typically results in a number of challenges.
Ammonia in a turbine’s exhaust gas can lead to fouling of heat recovery steam generator
(HRSG) tubes downstream of the SCR if moderate quantities of sulfur are present in the flue gas.
Ammonia and sulfur can combine to form ammonium bisulfate, a sticky substance that forms in

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the low temperature section of the HRSG (usually the economizer). The deposited ammonium
bisulfate is difficult to remove and can lead to a marked increase in pressure drop across the
HRSG.
SCR vendors guarantee ammonia slip levels as low as 2.0 ppm if additional catalyst is added to
the SCR. The additional cost of this catalyst is relatively small compared to the base cost of the
SCR designed for 10 ppm ammonia slip, adding 15 to 20 percent to the equipment cost. A new
catalyst has essentially no ammonia slip, due to the high activity level of the catalyst when it is
fresh. Over time, however, the activity level of the catalyst slowly declines, and the amount of
ammonia slip slowly increases to maintain the NOx concentration at or below the NOx guarantee
level. Using fresh catalyst, an oversized SCR reactor, and a substoichiometric ratio of ammonia
to NOx (such as 0.9 to 1.0), results in relatively complete consumption of ammonia in the SCR
reactor, while still achieving the NOx outlet concentration requirement of 2.5 ppm.
Two “zero ammonia technologies” have recently emerged to compete with SCR for the ultra-low
NOx power generation market. These technologies include SCONOx™ and catalytic combustion.
SCONOx™ has been in operation on an LM2500 since 1996 and has consistently maintained a
NOx level of less than 2.5 ppm. Catalytic combustion is in the process of being commercialized;
a small Kawasaki turbine maintained a NOx level of less than 3.0 ppm in a 4000-hour test
conducted in 1999. In addition, an ammonia degradation catalyst may be used to eliminate any
ammonia slip that passes through the SCR, resulting in essentially zero ammonia emissions at
the stack.

Ongoing Efforts

The technological and regulatory assessments described in the EPRI report are being continued
in 2001 as part of the new Combustion Turbine Design Target. Detailed technical assessment are
being performed and permitting guidance is being developed for all ultra-low NOx emission
controls that apply to combustion turbines. The work focuses on compliance with three separate
NOx control categories: < 3 ppm (California), < 9 ppm (OTAG), and 15 ppm (USA other than
CA and OTAG).
The initial focus is SCR technology, including collateral issues concerning oxidation catalysts,
duct burners, CO, VOC, air toxic (formaldehyde), and PM10 impacts. A recent survey of high-
temperature SCR application experience for simple-cycle combustion turbines provides a starting
point for these assessments. The next phase focuses on the state-of-the-art assessment of
SCONOx™ and catalytic combustion as these technologies become commercially deployed in
large gas turbine applications.
EPRI’s Value Option Package on SCR and Post-Combustion System Issues for Combustion
Turbines offers a detailed analysis in this area. For more information, contact EPRI’s Leonard
Angello, langello@epri.com, (650) 855-7939.
Editor’s Note: This article is based on EPRI report 1000651, Gas Turbine Environmental Siting
Considerations, prepared by S. Rivera of Resource Catalysts and B. Powers of Powers
Engineering, December 2000.

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NEW SOFTWARE QUANTIFIES TECHNICAL RISKS OF
CT PROJECTS

To date, project developers of combustion turbine (CT) projects have relied on sketchy
information regarding technology risks and their associated costs because they lacked the tools
needed to assess these risks. EPRI’s CT Project Risk Analyzer methodology and software arm
developers with a valuable tool to fill that need.

Until now, technology risk evaluations for CT projects have been largely subjective and
anecdotal—a risky prospect given the effect of O&M costs on project profitability. Technology-
related risks for CT projects have been notoriously difficult to quantify because no methodology
or tool has been available to help project developers evaluate the fixed and variable costs
associated with turbine technology O&M. As a result, technical risk and mitigation issues are
often addressed late in the project development process, resulting in less optimal technology
procurement decisions and higher costs for risk mitigation.

In response to this need, EPRI has developed a methodology and analysis tool—the CT Project
Risk Analyzer—that helps quantify technical risks and evaluates risk mitigation alternatives for
CT-based power plants. The tool provides a model-specific, statistically based assessment of
unplanned maintenance events and costs, scheduled maintenance variability and parts life
evaluation, detailed estimation of total non-fuel O&M costs, and pro forma assessment of cash
flow impacts. When project developers combine this information with an overall project
financial analysis, the tool provides a way to quantify the impact of technical risk on project
financial performance, as well as to assess the benefits of long-term service agreements to
mitigate technical risk.

Quantifying Risk: A Complex Process

Quantifying technical risk is complex because it involves both event cost and probability of
occurrence. Regarding costs, accurate risk assessments require an estimate of the overall
maintenance costs associated with plant operation, a valuation of the other costs associated with
electricity production, and accurate cost assessments of technical risks. Some cost items, such as
those associated with operating personnel, consumables and periodic maintenance, can be
estimated at a single, fixed cost (i.e., these are deterministic variables). Other cost categories
involving uncertainty, such as unplanned maintenance and scheduled maintenance, vary over a
range (i.e., these are stochastic variables).

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Quantifying Technical Risks and Costs

The CT Project Risk Analyzer helps planners quantify the major areas of uncertainty related to
technical risk, including scheduled maintenance frequency, unplanned maintenance frequency,
maintenance costs, and outage duration.

The software, built as a Microsoft Excel-based workbook with multiple spreadsheets, performs
the analysis that quantifies O&M costs, as well as technical risk mitigation alternatives and
benefits.

Add-in software runs Monte Carlo simulations on stochastic variables to determine cost and
probability distributions. These simulations enable the Analyzer’s reports to reflect the fact that
uncertainty in frequency and cost directly impacts unit O&M costs. Using this approach, the tool
defines the major stochastic variables for the particular CT model based on actual fleet data,
theoretical modeling, and field experience. Probability distributions are assigned to the failure
rate data, with distribution type, mean and standard deviation values determined from fleet
statistics.

Actionable Information

Once data are input into the database, the Analyzer provides an accurate estimate of all non-fuel
O&M costs (i.e., labor, materials and consumables), scheduled maintenance (including parts
replacement and repair costs), and unplanned maintenance for a particular CT project. In
addition, the tool provides initial estimates of risk mitigation costs for long-term maintenance
agreements, extended warranties, machinery breakdown, and business interruption insurance,
which the user can fine-tune to the particular application. The Excel spreadsheet provides cash
flow projections for O&M components, present worth and annualized cost analyses, as well as
cost-benefit comparisons of mitigation options.

Project developers can determine project cash flow and financial performance by first using an
overall performance and costing model such as EPRI’s State-of-the-Art Power Plant (SOAPP-
CT) software, and combining its data with inputs from the CT Project Risk Analyzer. For
example, Figure 17-1 shows the relative distribution of costs from an overall project cash flow
perspective. Since fuel costs significantly impact project profitability, maintaining operating
efficiency is clearly an important factor. O&M costs are also a significant portion of cash
outflow; the annualized O&M costs for the CT-based plant represent 7 percent of the revenue
cash flow for a combined-cycle plant operating at moderate baseload duty in this example. Using
data from SOAPP and the Analyzer, developers can also estimate impacts on financial
performance due to changes in O&M costs.

The CT Project Risk Analyzer also provides a framework for “what-if” parametric analyses. For
instance, developers can determine the typical sensitivity of maintenance costs to CT service
factors. In addition, plant profitability sensitivity and risk, which is primarily affected by
scheduled maintenance and unplanned maintenance, can be quantified. Developers can use the
CT Project Risk Analyzer results, combined with an overall plant financial analysis, to create
sensitivity studies on variables of interest.

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Figure 17-1
Relative Distribution of Project Cash Flow.

For example, the variability in plant profitability can be determined as a function of the
variability in maintenance frequency (see Figure 17-2). The chart shows the variability in plant
profitability, as measured by either net present value at a 12 percent discount rate (NPV12) or
internal rate of return (IRR) after taxes. The arithmetic mean at 18 percent IRR occurs at about
56 percent probability (i.e., there is a 56 percent likelihood that the NPV will exceed its level at
the arithmetic mean and that the IRR will exceed 18 percent). For this example, the difference in
NPV12 from the 80th percentile to the 20th percentile is about $14 million, due only to variability
in maintenance frequency. For a project with an initial capital cost of roughly $250 million, a
$14 million variation in NPV due only to variability in maintenance frequency is significant,
representing 5.6 percent of the initial cost.

Figure 17-2
Sensitivity of Plant Profitability to Variability in Maintenance Frequency.

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Risk Mitigation Alternatives: Valuable Investments?

Once technical risks and costs are quantified using the CT Project Risk Analyzer, project
developers can better determine the need for—and value of—long-term maintenance agreements
and other O&M contracts that reduce financial exposure to technical risk. Maintenance contracts,
extended warranties, parts costs guarantees, machinery breakdown insurance, and business
interruption insurance are ways project developers can control negative financial consequences
to unforeseen technical problems. Their use is increasingly common as developers incorporate
the next generation of CTs into their development plans.
Although the contracts are individually tailored to each situation, contracts typically cover the
supply of parts, material, labor and expertise required to perform the major inspections and
maintenance on the unit or component. Coverage can range from simply a prenegotiated parts
agreement to a broad scope O&M agreement in which all O&M costs, including unplanned
maintenance, are covered on a fixed price basis. In these contracts, a bonus is generally
negotiated that rewards the contract offerer if performance exceeds requirements. Conversely,
liquidated damages usually apply when requirements are not met.
Insurance and extended warranties provide another means of controlling technology risk costs.
Machinery breakdown insurance covers the cost to repair accidental damage or failure, subject to
significant deductible amounts. Business interruption insurance can be used to cover loss of
income and extra expenses when operations are curtailed or suspended due to equipment failure.
Extended warranties may also be available to provide more financial recourse for the buyer, if
the equipment fails to meet contract performance requirements or minimum parts life
requirements.
Extended warranties, maintenance contracts, and insurance policies cost money. The CT Project
Risk Analyzer provides the framework for conducting economic comparisons between risks and
the probable cost of those risks.
By identifying exposure to technical risks early in the project development process, project
developers can adopt optimal procurement decisions and mitigation measures for improved
financial returns.
For more information about the CT Project Risk Analyzer, contact Dale Grace,
dgrace@epri.com, (650) 855-2527.

SIDEBAR: CT Long-Term Maintenance Decision Support Services

EPRI offers custom consulting services to help power producers evaluate long-term maintenance
service agreements, understand maintenance life-cycle issues, and analyze alternatives. EPRI can
serve as a client’s consultant, helping the client understand terms under an OEM’s maintenance
service proposal, or help the client choose and manage alternative life-cycle maintenance plans.
For more information, contact Dale Grace, dgrace@epri.com, (650) 855-2527.

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OPTIMIZING THE DESIGN OF COMBINED-CYCLE
POWER PLANTS

As project developers seek to improve the designs and profitability of combined-cycle (CC)
power plants, EPRI offers improved methodologies to help planners design plants that ensure
optimal return on investment.

Combustion turbine (CT) manufacturers, engineering companies, plant owners and developers
often cite the advantages of a reference design approach for new combined-cycle (CC) plants.
Cited advantages include reduced engineering time and construction schedules, lower design
and proposal development costs, and increased purchasing leverage via multi-unit orders.

But relying on design shortcuts such as reference designs can lead to serious problems.
Reference designs may be based on assumptions that are not optimized for the site or the
plant’s specific function. A reference design may produce desired results for baseload plants,
but not for peaking or cycling plants. Even simple technology enhancements may produce
dramatic improvements to project profitability under some conditions, but not others.

To help project developers effectively evaluate equipment and design decisions, EPRI has
developed improved methodologies and tools for plant evaluation, design, and optimization, as
documented in the recently released EPRI report, Combined Cycle Plant Optimization Studies
(EPRI report number 1000684). These tools allow project developers to explore a variety of
plant designs and configurations quickly and accurately in order to minimize risk and maximize
financial returns.

SOAPP-CT Evaluation Software

One of these tools is EPRI’s State-of-the-Art Power Plant (SOAPP-CT) WorkStation. This
software integrates performance, cost, and financial analysis capabilities, and allows the user to
input specific design variables to create model CT plants. This enables developers to optimize
the plant design in terms of technical and financial criteria, as well as assess the robustness of the
design to project and market uncertainties. In addition, developers can create “what if” scenarios
to evaluate the impacts of key design decisions on overall performance and financial return.

Functionally, the SOAPP WorkStation automates plant conceptual design, heat and material
balances, preliminary equipment sizing, plant reference diagrams and drawings, cost estimates,
construction schedules, and financial analysis based on user-selected equipment, site,
environmental, fuel, and economic data (see Figure 18-1). For example, the user can input
specific key design attributes of the unit, beginning with selection of the CT model, by selecting

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from a database of commercially available 50- and 60-Hz models ranging in size from 20 MW
to 220 MW. The user can also select a simple-cycle, combined-cycle, or cogeneration
arrangement. The user then configures each major equipment item, such as inclusion of inlet air
cooling or a duct burner, and selects process design conditions, such as heat recovery steam
generator (HRSG) steam pressures and temperatures, pinch and approach points, and steam
turbine condenser pressure. Throughout the design process, the user can also adjust capital,
fuel, O&M, and other costs.

Figure 18-1
SOAPP Software Operation.

SOAPP’s site data input group allows the user to select ambient conditions such as temperatures
and elevation, site conditions, and certain site-specific cost and economic inputs. In addition, the
user can adjust costs of construction labor and productivity, makeup water, operator salaries, and
other O&M activities.

Scenario: Inlet Air Cooling Choices

One scenario in the EPRI report analyzes the impact of various inlet cooling techniques on plant
efficiency and financial results. In addition to a baseline plant design, researchers used an
“equivalent annual cases” method, which involves defining a minimum, but sufficient number of
plant operating cases to simulate average annual plant operations. Specifically, the method
allows a user to input expected fluctuations in plant operations and costs resulting from—for
example—spiking fuel or natural gas prices. Using this approach, users can also intelligently
divide the operability of the plant into individual periods, or cases, that are defined to fit the plant
operating strategy. Examples include seasons of the year, operating rationale (i.e., full-time
versus stand-by or peaking), or implementation of inlet chilling only at ambient temperatures
above 80°F (27°C). Adjusting variables like these can significantly impact CT performance and
overall plant profitability, and as a result, must be incorporated into an analysis of a proposed
design.

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Key plant variables selected for the comparison of inlet cooling techniques included the
following:
· Location. The hot, arid climate of the selected Phoenix, Arizona plant site offers 38°F
(21°C) of evaporative cooling capability. However, water costs in Phoenix are exceedingly
high—estimated at 5 to 6 times higher than other parts of the United States.
· Operating mode. Researchers chose the cycling operating mode, with a load factor of 60
percent. During the hottest months (when electricity prices are highest), the plant would be
operated full-time. During the coldest months, the plant would be operated part-time, or not
at all.
· Plant size. The project team selected a plant size of 225-250 MW, which enables combined-
cycle application of a GE PG7241 (FA) 60-Hz CT with a HRSG and steam turbine (a 1x1x1
configuration).
· Electricity and natural gas pricing. The highest level of free market electricity pricing
chosen for a single period is $70/MWh. In addition, the team assumed moderate gas pricing,
ranging from $3.00/MMBtu ($2.84/GJ) to $4.50/MMBtu ($4.27/GJ), and assumed that the
CTs would operate only on natural gas.

The study focused on comparing the financial impact of using the following inlet air cooling
techniques:
· Media-Type Evaporative Cooling: the most common form of inlet cooling, in which a
honeycomb-like cellulose material is installed across the inlet and wetted, and air is pulled
through the material and cooled.
· High Pressure Inlet Fogging: a rapidly growing technology in which a very fine water
spray at high pressure cools the air.
· Steam Absorption Chilling: a capital-intensive cooling method capable of achieving the
largest temperature drops via steam-driven compressors.

A baseline plant’s technologies were also modeled as a basis for the Internal Rate of Return
(IRR) comparisons with the alternative technologies listed above.

Scenario Results

Based on the operating conditions governing the plant, a total of six cases were developed so that
year-round operation could be represented for each configuration. Table 18-1 displays three key
parameters—process capital, cash flow to equity (base year only), and over-all IRR—for each
configuration.

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Table 18-1
Sample Results of Combined-Cycle Inlet Air Cooling Case Study

INCREMENTAL IMPACT PHOENIX BASIS: SOAPP EQUIVALENT ANNUAL CASE

Technology Utilized Evaporative High Pressure Steam No Inlet

Cooling Inlet Fogging Absorption Cooling
Chilling

INCREMENTAL PROCESS CAPITAL

Total Process Capital $ 102,587,000 102,622,000 102,736,000 100,131,000

Incremental Process Capital $ 2,456,000 2,491,000 2,605,000 0

Percent Increase in Process Capital % 2.45% 2.49% 2.60% 0.00%

INCREMENTAL CASH FLOW TO

EQUITY

Base Year Cash Flow to Equity $ 10,862,607 10,935,230 10,664,286 10,170,401

Incremental Cash Flow to Equity $ 692,206 764,829 493,885 0

Percent Increase in Cash Flow to % 6.81% 7.52% 4.86% 0.00%

Equity

INCREMENTAL INTERNAL RATE OF

RETURN

Internal Rate of Return % 35.21 35.47 33.99 33.37

Incremental Internal Rate of Return % 1.84 2.10 0.62 0.00

Percent Increase in Int. Rate of Return % 5.51% 6.29% 1.86% 0.00%

As expected, the base design without inlet cooling results in the lowest overall IRR. Of the three
technologies compared, inlet fogging resulted in the best overall IRR at 35.47 percent, but was
only incrementally better than the conventional evaporative cooling plant, which resulted in
35.21 percent IRR.

The incremental cash flow to equity for the inlet fogging case is more than $760,000,
representing a significant gain compared to the base design. The study indicates that by
spending an additional 2.5% of process capital, plant operators stand to realize a cash flow
gain of 7.5 percent—an efficient use of incremental capital.

The study is predicated on key parameters that could vary considerably, such as raw water costs,
seasonal anomalies, and electricity and gas prices. For example, if the cost of raw water were
25 to 30% higher, inlet chilling might become the best design choice.

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This example illustrates how considering major equipment options on a site-by-site basis can
improve equity returns and reduce financial risk.

For more information on combined-cycle plant design optimization, contact EPRI’s Dale Grace,
dgrace@epri.com, (650) 855-2527.

Editor’s Note: This article is based on EPRI report 1000684, Combined Cycle Plant Optimization
Studies, prepared by W.C. Stenzel of EPRIsolutions and G.J. Boncimino of Powerhouse
Engineering, December 2000.

SIDEBAR: CT Power Augmentation Site Evaluation

EPRI offers site-specific evaluations of potential capacity enhancement technologies. At selected

CT sites, the project team inspects the site and identifies data requirements; develops
performance models; conducts an analysis of performance benefits, water demand, and estimated
costs; assesses the impact on emissions; develops a preliminary design concept for recommended
equipment; and develops a site-specific report.

For more information, contact Leonard Angello, langello@epri.com, (650) 855-7939.

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MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO
DECEMBER, 2000 ISSUE

In response to feedback from funders, EPRI is increasing its emphasis on effective repair of
combustion turbines. We have devoted this issue of Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence
Report to this topic.

CT manufacturers and repair shops are making significant investments to meet the unique repair
needs of directionally solidified and single crystal castings. At the same time, mergers and
acquisitions in the CT industry are changing the business landscape (e.g., UTC/Pratt & Whitney,
Siemens, Sulzer/Hickham’s acquisition of Elbar, and GE/Honeywell). These firms are
aggressively increasing their presence in the highly lucrative aftermarket parts and repair
business. Each dollar in first cost capital typically generates 2-4 dollars in aftermarket parts and
services.

All repair techniques remain susceptible to day-to-day quality variability—a continuing concern
for CT owners. In this issue of GTE&IR, we examine various hot section component repair
methods (see Chapter 20) and provide a closer look at laser weld repair (see Chapter 22).

When considering use of non-OEM repair shops, repair guidelines are quite useful, especially if
the process involves competitive bidding. Even if an OEM is used for repair, guidelines lay out
the recommended procedures, which can improve accountability and work quality. EPRI is
developing a complete compendium of model-specific repair guidelines; its recently released
report covers GE MS7001 and Westinghouse W501 machines, and other guidelines will be made
available on EPRIweb as they are developed (see a complete list of these guidelines in Chapter
21). EPRI is also providing improved tools for the estimation of CT blade coating remaining
life—critical to avoiding oxidation and increased scrap rates (see Chapter 25).

To move this EPRI program of CT repair tools and information forward, while creating bottom
line benefits for power producers, we need your help and cooperation. Please contact us if you
are interested in providing us access to service-aged parts, or working with us to project
maintenance intervals on your machines, assess machine damage, or qualify new repair
techniques.
John Scheibel
Technical Area Manager
New Central Stations

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OVERVIEW OF HOT SECTION COMPONENT REPAIR
METHODS

Advances in joining processes, filler materials, and processing now offer the potential of
refurbishment of higher stressed regions of gas turbine buckets. This article provides an
overview of recent advances in repair and refurbishment of superalloy gas turbine blade/bucket
materials, including modern welding technologies such as laser, microplasma, and plasma-
transferred arc welding.

Blade Repair Procedures

The blade repair process typically follows an ordered, pre-established sequence of steps (see
Figure 20-1). The most practical method for defining the steps and their sequence is through a
blade repair guideline. Experience has shown that the best arrangement occurs when the owner
of the blades to be repaired furnishes the guideline to the repair organization before bidding
takes place. When considering use of a non-OEM supplier, guidelines are quite useful, especially
if the process involves competitive bidding. Even if an OEM is used for repair, guidelines lay
out the recommended procedures, which can improve accountability and work quality. Refer to
Chapter 21 for a list of repair guidelines that EPRI has developed, as well as a list of planned
guidelines. Also refer to Chapter 21 for information on the consolidation of these guidelines
into an EPRI report.

Gas Tungsten Arc (GTAW) Processes

Gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW)—commonly called TIG welding—has historically been, and
remains, the most-used process for gas turbine blade repair. Power producers apply this process
in the repair of advanced industrial turbine blade alloys. Weaker, solid solution-strengthened
filler materials are used to restore missing or worn areas, including IN 625 (the most popular
filler), as well as IN 617 and Haynes 230 (generally accepted alternatives for industrial blades),
and others (e.g., Hastelloy X and IN 600). The use of argon-filled chambers for TIG welding
large, industrial turbine blades is a practice derived from the aero engine industry that has gained
considerable acceptance over the past few years (Buchanan and Gullberg, 1984).

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Figure 20-1
Simplified Flow Chart: Blade Repair Procedures.

Compared to other processes, TIG welding equipment is more readily available and typically
much more affordable. Manual welding is the dominant method in use. However, some OEMs
and independent repair shops have automated processes to handle the repair of tip rubs on
production runs of the more commonly repaired designs. Automating the repair of worn or
damaged blade tips can be difficult, regardless of the welding method used. During service,
blades tend to lengthen (creep) and untwist by varying amounts. Airfoil shapes are complex, with
variable thicknesses adjacent to cooling holes and at leading and trailing edges. Manufacturing
tolerances, particularly at thin sections, can often result in significant variations as well. These
and other factors can cause high reject rates when less complex, open-loop automation schemes
are employed. Adaptive, closed-loop automation is more complex, but more capable of adjusting
for blade-to-blade variations. Systems have been developed that pulse the current and wire feed
in a synchronized manner while traversing the blade tip in order to control the geometry of the
weld pool and minimize heat input (Lowden, Pilcher, and Liburdi, 1991). Damage in the airfoil
(below the tip) is so random in size, shape, and location that it is repaired almost exclusively by
manual methods. Whenever it can be practically applied to superalloy blade repair, benefits
result from automating the GTAW process.

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Plasma and Microplasma Transferred Arc Processes

According to the ASM Handbook, plasma transferred arc welding (PTAW) is often characterized
as a modified form of GTAW. Both processes produce heat by ionizing an inert gas, both use
tungsten electrodes, and in most industrial applications, PTAW is specified as an acceptable
alternative for GTAW. The fundamental difference is that PTAW involves constriction of the arc
by an orifice assembly surrounding the electrode, whereas GTAW does not constrict the arc (see
Figure 20-2). This constriction increases the amount of ionization (or plasma) created, producing
a more concentrated heat pattern and higher arc temperatures.

Figure 20-2
Comparison of PTAW and GTAW Torch Designs.

Recessing the electrode and constricting the plasma jet through the torch orifice in PTAW
produces the following advantages over the nonconstricted GTAW process:
· The plasma stream is more concentrated, resulting in higher heat content (density) and heat
transfer at the weld zone. Less current is required for the same heat release into the work
piece.
· Joints can be made with less overall heat input into the work piece. This can result in less
distortion, smaller heat affected zones, and faster cooling.
· Arc stability is improved, particularly at low current levels.
· Since the electrode is recessed into the torch body, tungsten contamination in the weld pool
is eliminated.
· The more confined plasma stream reduces the sensitivity to variations in arc length. Less
welder dexterity is required for manual welding.

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Overview of Hot Section Component Repair Methods

PTAW has the following disadvantages compared to GTAW:

· The cost of PTAW equipment is two to five times higher than comparably sized GTAW
equipment.
· More welder knowledge is needed to use PTAW. The highly concentrated plasma stream
can produce unwanted results quickly when heat-related problems arise.
· PTAW torches are larger in diameter and typically weigh more than comparable TIG units.
Even small PTAW torches are water cooled.

Laser Beam Welding (LBW) Processes

Laser beam welding (LBW) uses an intense, concentrated, and highly parallel beam of light to
produce heat in the weld joint. In June 2000, at the EPRI Welding & Repair Technology for
Power Plants Conference in Marco Island, Florida, several organizations reported using laser
welding processes, including Chromalloy, EPRI Repair and Replacement Applications Center,
Honeywell LTS, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Refer to Chapter 22 for more information
on LBW and these applications.

Other Repair Methods

Three additional repair methods involving other forms of bonding include diffusion brazing,
diffusion bonding, and transient liquid phase bonding. Such methods have been shown to result
in joint strengths that are up to 90 percent of the original blade alloy properties. Innovative repair
practices such as these represent alternative methods for addressing damage throughout much of
the airfoil, not just the upper 10 percent.

Transient liquid phase bonding and wide gap diffusion bonding offer great potential for joining
equiaxed, directionally solidified, and single crystal alloys. These processes make use of low
melting point depressing elements such as boron mixed with a powder, paste, or tape of the same
composition as the component to be repaired. The joining medium is placed between two base
metals or on a single metal and fused at high temperature and low pressure. The processes offer
the potential of performing repairs in the high strength regions of an airfoil well below the airfoil
tip region.

Editor’s Note: This article by D.W. Gandy, G. Frederick, and R.Viswanathan, EPRI; and
J.T. Stover, Consultant, is an excerpted version of an article of the same title by these authors
presented at the Fall 2000 Meeting of the ASM Utilities and Energy Sector Conference on
Gas Turbine Materials Technologies, which was held October 9-12, 2000, in St. Louis.

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21
EPRI CONSOLIDATES AND UPDATES REPAIR
GUIDELINES

EPRI has assembled a comprehensive set of repair and coating guidelines for General Electric
MS7001 and Westinghouse W501 machines into one document (see EPRI report TR-1000660).
The repair guidelines include 15 separate guidelines on various hot section components,
including blades, nozzles, combustion liners, combustor transitions, and six coatings. The
guidelines have been assembled into one document to assist owners in refurbishment of these
individual components. Updates/corrections were made to each guideline to incorporate
improvements in repair and coatings technologies, including improvements in filler materials,
welding processes, inspection methods, and component dimensioning, developed over the past
eight years.

EPRI is assembling a compendium of repair guidelines that will cover all manufacturers. Future
updates to guidelines will be directly on EPRIweb, www.epri.com.

Completed Guidelines
· GE MS7001 row 1 buckets manufactured from IN 738 alloy
· GE MS7001 row 3 buckets manufactured from Udimet 500 alloy
· GE MS7001B row 1-3 nozzles
· GE MS7001 combustor transitions manufactured from Nimonic 263 alloy or Hastelloy X
alloy coatings
· GE MS7001 combustion liners manufactured from Hastelloy X alloy
· Udimet 520 Westinghouse W501 row 1-2 turbine blades
· Westinghouse W501 row 1 vane segments manufactured from X-45 alloy or ECY-768 alloy

Coatings
· Deposition of diffusion chromium aluminide coatings on IN 738 and U520 substrates by
pack cementation
· Deposition of diffusion aluminide coatings on IN 738 and U520 substrates by pack
cementation
· Deposition of MCrAlY coatings on IN 738 and U520 substrates by low pressure plasma
spray

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EPRI consolidates and updates repair guidelines

· Deposition of diffusion platinum aluminide coatings on IN 738 and U520 substrates by pack
cementation
· Deposition of diffusion silicon aluminide coatings on IN 738 and U520 substrates by a slurry
technique
· Deposition of thermal barrier coatings by low pressure plasma spray

Guidelines to be Completed by December 2000

· GE Frame 7F/7FA (9F/9FA) combustion liners (non-DLN and DLN version 2.0 and 2.6);
transition pieces; and row 1-2 nozzles

Planned Guidelines (2001-2004)

The following list of guidelines is subject to annual review.

· GE Frame 6B combustion liners (NON DLN), transition pieces, row 1 nozzles, and
row 3 buckets
· GE Frame 7F/FA (9F/9FA) row 1 buckets, row 2 buckets, and row 3 nozzles and buckets
· GE Frame 7E/7EA (9E) combustion liners (NON DLN); transition pieces; and rows 1, 2
and 3 nozzles and buckets
· Guideline for combustor wear extenders
· Westinghouse W501D / D5 combustion baskets and combustion transitions
· Westinghouse W501F combustion baskets, combustion transitions, row 1-2 blades and
vanes, and row 3-4 blades
· Alstom/ABB Model 11N/N1 row 1 vanes and blades
· Siemens Model V84.2 row 1 vanes and blades

Coatings
· Update existing McrAlY (VPS) coating guide-line (add GTD111EA and DS & CM427
EA and DS)
· McrAlY’s (VPS) with aluminide topcoat (GT29 equivalent)
· McrAlY’s (VPS) with aluminide topcoat and aluminized cooling passages (GT29 In+)
· McrAlY’s (VPS) with Re interlayer
· Thermal barrier coatings by EB-PVD

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THE CURRENT STATE OF LASER WELD REPAIR OF
CTS

In a 1998 survey, OEM and repair vendors selected laser beam welding (LBW) as the technique
with the greatest potential to improve welding in CTs (EPRI Report, TR-110355). LBW uses an
intense, concentrated, and highly parallel beam of light to produce heat in the weld joint.
Fundamentally, the light beam consists of a stream of photons, which can be focused and
directed by lenses and mirrors as required for the application. Laser beams may be transmitted
through air for considerable distances without appreciable power loss. This is a key advantage in
many applications and an important difference relative to electron beams.

LBW Pros and Cons

Laser beam welding offers the following advantages that are important in the repair of superalloy
gas turbine blades:
· Heating and melting are highly localized. The specific energy input to the weld joint is low,
resulting in narrow weld widths and heat affected zones.
· LBW is a noncontact process requiring only a line of sight to the weld joint. Distortion and
other complications associated with contact processes, especially at thin sections such as
blade tips and air seals, can be reduced or potentially eliminated.
· Relatively simple optical elements can focus and direct laser beams. Automation—utilizing
prescribed geometry algorithms and vision system feedback—is of similar complexity to
other welding methods.
· Compared to manual gas tungsten arc welding (GTAW) or manual plasma transferred arc
welding (PTAW) of blade tips, automated LBW can be much faster, require less post weld
machining, and require less rework.

LBW disadvantages relative to other processes include the fact that initial system cost, including
operator training, are high compared to GTAW or PTAW. In high-volume production
applications, however, the amortized capital equipment costs are often significantly lower than
the cost of operating consumables and labor.

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Figure 22-1
Heat-Affected Zone Cracking that is sometimes Characteristic of Gas Tungsten Arc
Welding (GTAW) or Plasma Transferred Arc Welding (PTAW).

LBW Applications

At the EPRI Welding & Repair Technology for Power Plants Conference at Marco Island,
Florida in June 2000, several organizations reported using laser welding processes, including
Chromalloy, the EPRI Repair and Replacement Applications Center (RRAC), Honeywell LTS,
and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The results of each are briefly reviewed in the remainder of
this article.

Chromalloy HIT and Siemens-Westinghouse Power Corporation teamed to perform laser welds
on hot section rotating IN 738 and directionally solidified Mar-M002 blade alloys (Jen, Hsu,
Nico, Foster, and Sinnott at Marco Island conference). Very high welding preheat temperatures
of 1650° F (900° C) and above were employed. Test results suggested that minimal levels of
porosity were seen in the deposited welds, but this was deemed acceptable based on
metallographic examination and mechanical test results. The two organizations reported that
70-80 percent of the stress rupture properties of the two parent base metals was achieved.

At the Marco Island conference, the EPRI Repair & Replacement Applications Center (RRAC)
in Charlotte, North Carolina reported the results of a two-year study on IN 738 repair. Three
filler materials were evaluated, including IN 625, IN 738, and IN 939. Of these, successful
results were consistently achieved using IN 625 and IN 939. Acceptable crack-free weldments
using IN 738 as the filler were achieved, but not on a consistent basis. IN 625 was used only as a
baseline to demonstrate that the laser process could be employed for gamma prime strengthened
alloys. EPRI determined that the IN 939 filler could be applied consistently to IN 738 without
cracking. In fact, 1-1/4-inch (32 mm) thick weld buildups were produced with the process.
Tensile test results at 1600° F (871° C) demonstrated UTS values at 103 ksi (710 MPa) and
YS values at 60 ksi (414 MPa).

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 The Current State of Laser Weld Repair of CTs

Additionally, stress rupture results were shown to be above 80 percent of the parent base
material. EPRI continues to study the use of IN 939 as a weld filler for the repair of IN 738
blades and plans to commercialize the technology in 2001. GE/Honeywell Laser Technology
Services (formerly Allied Signal-Quantum Laser) reported successful welds on IN 738LC using
a process referred to as laser powder fusion (Hu, Reynal, Ramundo, and Daniak at the Marco
Island conference). The filler powder composition used matches that of the blade material
(IN 738). Porosity and crack-free weldments were described with good metallurgical bonding,
low dilution, and a narrow heat-affected zone. Honeywell LTS reported that the laser powder
fusion process is currently being used for blades in the aerospace industry and that it could be
readily extrapolated to the industrial turbine market. Only metallographic results were reported
for IN 738LC repairs; mechanical testing was said to be in process.

Figure 22-2
Detail along the Fusion Line of IN 939 Filler Deposit on a IN 738 Base Specimen using
Laser Beam Welding.

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is the only organization to discuss the results of laser
welding research on both single crystal and directionally solidified nickel-based superalloys. At
the EPRI Marco Island conference, only the results of the investigation on single crystal PWA
1480 were described (David, Vitek, and Babu). Autogenous welds were produced over a range
of welding conditions and orientations using both laser welding and electron beam welding. Both
processes resulted in extensive fusion zone cracking, which was shown to be solidification hot
cracking at room temperature. Preheating the material to 930° F (500° C) allowed crack-free
welds to be performed over a very narrow range of welding conditions. Welds were shown to
exhibit extensive amounts of misoriented stray grains in the center of the welds. The formation
of these stray grains was attributed to both thermal and constitutional undercooling effects.
ORNL continues to investigate the use of the laser process for single crystal alloys.
Editor’s Note: This article by D.W. Gandy, G. Frederick, and R.Viswanathan, EPRI; and
J.T. Stover, Consultant, is an excerpted version of an article entitled “Overview of Hot Section
Component Repair Methods” by these authors presented at the Fall 2000 Meeting of the ASM
Utilities and Energy Sector Conference on Gas Turbine Materials Technologies, which was held
October 9-12, 2000, in St. Louis.

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23
GAS TURBINE OVERHAUL PLAN SOFTWARE
ENHANCEMENT PLANNED

EPRI’s Gas Turbine Overhaul Plan (GTOP) is a comprehensive package for planning, managing,
and documenting CT overhauls. This software reduces the time required for CT overhauls by
enabling better planning, managing, and tracking of tasks, and hence more efficient use of
overhaul personnel. In addition, confidence that each CT overhaul will be completed on time
enables power control personnel to schedule their system generation requirements more
effectively.

For the following CT models, EPRI has released versions of GTOP that made use of
commercially available project planning software (Microsoft Project Version 4):
· ABB GT11D simple cycle
· ABB GT11N/N1
· GE Frame 9
· Westinghouse 501 simple cycle
· GE MS5001 simple cycle
· GE MS7001
· Siemens V84.2 simple cycle
· Generic combined cycle

Now, EPRI is developing a version of GTOP that will make use of Microsoft Project 2000.
Available in the first quarter of 2001 for the GE Frame 6 Model B, this new version will extend
the power of this software package. Later, GTOP under Microsoft Project 2000 will support the
GE Frame 7FA and Westinghouse W501F.

In 12-18 months from project initiation, EPRI is able to fully develop a GTOP package for
nearly any model type. If you are interested in acting as a host utility for any of the planned
versions or additional models, please contact EPRI’s Leonard Angello, (650) 855-7939,
langello@epri.com.

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CT OPERATIONS TRAINING NOW AVAILABLE

EPRI’s Simulator & Training Center actively supports CT training by providing a range of
courses, an apprenticeship program, and a comprehensive CT training program offering.

Scheduled throughout the year, CT training courses for operators and non-operating personnel
are available through the S&T Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, or can be presented at the
user site as requested. Operator skills training includes hands-on exercises using a reference
plant simulator, which includes a simple CT unit, a combined-cycle GE Frame 7, and a
combined-cycle Siemens unit.

The S&T Center is currently implementing a new apprenticeship program for CT training.
Using Kansas City Power and Light’s Hawthorne Plant, the apprenticeship program prepares
new hires for entry level operating positions. Using a modular format that allows easy
customization to specific facilities, the program enables operators to learn plant design and
operation, gain practical knowledge, and learn required skills. A related program is also
available for control room operators.

The EPRI S&T Center is introducing two new collaborative EPRI solicitations for a complete
CT training program. Both of these programs were developed to provide the industry with the
only complete CT training program. Participants that join one or both of these collaborative
projects can save up to 90% of the cost that an individual company would incur. Participants
receive the following:
· Simulator software that fully emulates a GE Frame 7FA and 7EA or Siemens/Westinghouse
501F combined cycle unit
· An interactive Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) to provide guidance and interact with
trainees
· A 3-4 hour computer-based training (CBT) program
· An operator training program that includes procedures and guidelines, job tasks and
descriptions, training materials, proficiency evaluation instruments, and on-the-job
qualification cards
· Ten days of on-site training that covers simulator operations, ITS operations and program
expansion, CBT lesson planning and student tracking, and orientation of the trainer in the
use of training materials

For more information, contact Dick Pennington, the S&T Center, (704) 547-6105.

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EPRI COATLIFE-2 PROGRAM NOW AVAILABLE

EPRI’s new easy-to-use COATLIFE Spreadsheet Program Version 2.0 (COATLIFE-2) enables
power producers to estimate next inspection/refurbishment intervals and avoid damage to
expensive castings; evaluate the performance of alternative coating systems; and project
maintenance intervals and life consumption based on operational patterns including overfiring.

COATLIFE-2 is an analytical tool designed for predicting the oxidation life of CT coatings and
thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) lives of coated blade alloys under variable plant operation
conditions. It is an extension of an earlier version of the software, which treated only the
oxidation lives of CT coatings. An earlier FORTRAN-based research version of the program
remains in use today.

TMF Life Modeling

COATLIFE-2’s TMF life model for coated gas-turbine blades was developed on the basis of the
Coffin-Manson strain-life relation for low-cycle fatigue. Applied to TMF, the strain-life relation
has the form given by D E N f = C where D E is the mechanical strain range, Nf is the cycle-to-
m
b
m

failure, is the fatigue life exponent, and C is the fatigue life coefficient.
b

TMF life is calculated in COATLIFE-2 on the basis of individual TMF loading blocks, which
correspond to individual rows of input data. Each row of TMF input include three pairs of strain
range and number of thermal cycles, corresponding to normal startup/shutdown, partial
load/shutdown and trip cycles (see Figure 25-1). A linear damage rule was developed to treat
TMF damage accumulation with a single TMF block or several TMF blocks. The remaining
TMF life is calculated and presented in terms of the number of TMF blocks or cycles.

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EPRI COATLIFE-2 Program Now Available

Figure 25-1
Oxidation and TMF Data Input and Output for the Sample COATLIFE-2 Analysis.

The TMF life model has been developed based on relevant TMF data for coated Ni blades,
which are compiled from the literature. These data were analyzed by correlating the TMF lives
against thermomechanical strain range for coated polycrystalline blades and single crystal blades,
respectively. All the TMF data are for 180° out-of-phase thermal cycles. These cycles have been
chosen because they are expected to lead to the shortest TMF lives. While representative values
are provided for strain ranges, EPRI will be further refining these values based on detailed
component-specific transient aerothermal stress analysis, including the ongoing GE Frame 7FA
life management first-stage bucket studies. Both the TMF life model and the corresponding TMF
data are incorporated into the COATLIFE-2 Spreadsheet Program without the use of a safety
factor.

COATLIFE-2 calculates the remaining TMF life of the coating and shows the result as a
horizontal line in a coating life diagram, which is a double logarithmic plot of the number of
startup cycles versus the cycle time (see Figure 25-2). The horizontal TMF failure boundary is
the consequence of the assumption that the cycle-to-failure, Nf, in the equation is independent of
frequency or cycle time. In the figure, the TMF horizontal line divides the plot into a protective
region (below the line) and a failed region (above the line).

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 EPRI COATLIFE-2 Program Now Available

Figure 25-2
COATLIFE-2 Coating Life Diagram for the GT33+ Coating for Directionally Solidified Base
Metal in the Sample Analysis.

Coating Life Diagram

For the oxidation damage mechanism, COATLIFE-2 calculates the usable life of a coating in
terms of the number of startup cycles for various cycle times at a given temperature. Like the
TMF results, the results of this calculation are presented in the form of a coating life diagram
with an oxidation failure boundary that divides the plot into a protective region and a failed
region. The oxidation life failure boundary is calculated on the basis of a critical Al content in
the coating. This critical Al content corresponds to the minimum Al content required to form a
protective, continuous alumina oxide on the coating surface. In the protective region, the Al
content in the coating exceeds the critical Al content so that a protective, continuous alumina
oxide is feasible. In the failed region, the Al content in the coating is insufficient to a form a
continuous alumina oxide and coating failure is considered to have occurred since internal
oxidation is imminent.

The current condition of a coating can be presented in a coating life diagram by plotting the
number of startup cycles experienced versus the cycle time at a given temperature. If the
coating condition lies below the coating failure boundary (e.g., the point in Figure 25-2), then
the coating remains protective. The distance between the current condition and the failure
boundary represents the remaining life of the coating life at the current temperature and the
cycle time. In contrast, if the current coating condition lies above the failure boundary, the
coating is nonprotective and has failed due to an insufficient amount of Al content to form a
protective oxide layer.

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EPRI COATLIFE-2 Program Now Available

By superposing the oxidation and TMF failure boundaries, the coating life diagram depicts the
remaining oxidation and TMF lives in the same plot.

Data Input

The program predicts usable lives of aluminide, platinum-modified aluminide (PtAl), and GT 29
coated equiaxed, directionally solidified, or single crystal blades under variable plant operation
conditions. It includes algorithms for GT 29 plus (CoCrAlY with a top aluminide coating), GT
33 plus (NiCoCrAlY with a top aluminide coating), and PWA 286 (MCrAlY modified with
hafnium and silicon). Substrates include IN738LS, Mar-M247, GTD-111DS, CMSX.

For oxidation life calculation, the data input for COATLIFE-2 are maximum metal temperature,
cycle time, and the number of startup cycles. EPRI has developed a compilation of the estimated
maximum metal temperature for the critical locations (leading edge, trailing edge) of first-stage
CT blades for various gas turbine machines and firing temperature. EPRI is interested in
obtaining service-aged components to validate and refine effective maximum metal
temperatures.

Based on input data of up to eight combinations of temperature, cycle time, and number of
startup cycles, the program calculates the failure cycles, percent life consumed, and the
remaining life in terms of cycles-to-failure for the current temperature (see Figure 25-1).

Sample Analysis

To illustrate COATLIFE-2, consider a GE 7FA machine that operates at a firing temperature

(temperature entering the first stage bucket) of 2100° F (1150° C) for 36,000 hours. This
machine has a GT33+ coating on GTD-111 DS blades, and starts up and shuts down every
10 hours. The mechanical strain range is about 0.40% for normal startup/ shutdown cycles and
0.58% for trip shutdowns, and 100 trips are assumed in this case. What is the condition of the
blades after 8000 hours?

For this example, EPRI’s compilation shows that the metal temperature is 1800° F (982° C).
Since the total operating hours is 8000 and the cycle time is 10 hours, the number of startup
cycles is 800. Also, since the total number of startup cycles is 800 and the number of trips is
100, the number of normal startup/shutdown cycles is 700. Hence, the TMF inputs are n = 700, 1

DE = 0.40%; and n = 100, D E = 0.58.

1 2 2

Figure 25-1 displays the following:

· The number of failure cycles (i.e., the coating life) is 1669 for oxidation and 8818.4 for TMF.
(The TMF life is the sum of the life spent, 800 cycles, and the remaining TMF life, 8018.4
cycles.)
· The percentage of oxidation life consumed is 47.93%, and the percentage of TMF life
consumed is 9.07% (800 cycles ÷ 8818.4 coating life cycles x 100%).

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 EPRI COATLIFE-2 Program Now Available

· The remaining oxidation life is 869.19 cycles, and the remaining TMF life is 8018.4 cycles.
Hence, the coating life is controlled by oxidation and the coating status is safe.
· The constraining portion of coating life (oxidation) is 1669.2 cycles at 10 hours/cycle,
leading to 16692 hours at 1800° F (982° C). Since the machine has operated for 8000 hours,
the remaining coating life is 8691.9 hours or 869.19 cycles.

In this example, a second set of conditions was modeled (150 hours/cycle for 6000 hours), and
the results are displayed in the second row of Figure 25-1.

For more information on COATLIFE-2, contact Vis Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com,

650.855.2450.

Editor’s Note: This article is based on the report COATLIFE Spreadsheet Program:
Version 2.0 User’s Manual, prepared for EPRI by Kwai S. Chan, Southwest Research Institute,
September 2000.

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VISIT INTURB ONLINE DATABASE TODAY

EPRI’s popular INTURB database is now available online. At www.inturb.com, CT

owner/operators can perform either of the following:
· Conduct a search of the database to identify the owners of a specific CT manufacturer and
model. Using this capability, a power producer can compare notes with a contemporary using
a similar machine who probably has experienced similar problems. Not only can they obtain
speedy answers to their questions, but they can also contact each other readily to buy or swap
spare parts.
· Update data in the INTURB database on CTs that their company owns or operates.

To provide a common frame of reference for power producers, EPRI sponsored development of
INTURB, which contains gas turbine data on over 1600 CTs representing over 45,000 MW in
electric generating capacity. The database contains information on the large machines operating
in the United States and a growing international base, including those of utilities and independent
power producers. It provides status data on models and makes, site names and locations, number
of engines per site, unit numbers and power, and NOx control—along with names, titles,
addresses, and phone numbers of pertinent plant personnel. To begin benefiting from INTURB
use, visit www.inturb.com today.

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PART V JUNE, 2000 ISSUE

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27
MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO JUNE, 2000
ISSUE

In this issue of Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report, we examine risk identification
and allocation—important parts of developing and implementing a financial strategy for any
power project. In the area of fuel risk, for example, long-term fuel contracts have gone the same
route as long-term electricity supply contracts, resulting in both price and volume risk for fuel.
Therefore, uncertainty exists in both the cost of the raw material (natural gas) and the price of the
finished product (electricity), which in turn makes the difference between these—the “spark
spread”—uncertain as well (see Chapter 28).

Today, technology/performance risks, for example, are more significant for power producers
than at almost any time in the long history of power production (see Chapter 29). The reason is
that market forces are pressuring developers of new projects to be the technology risk-takers of
the electric supply industry. In a competitive electricity generation market, existing assets—
where the original capital investment has been substantially or totally recovered—have a
significant production cost advantage. To compete with these existing generation assets, new
projects must take advantage of the latest equipment and cycle technology to minimize
production costs.

Yet, the accuracy of assessments of project technology risk is a function of the quality of input
data. Today, EPRI’s New CT Design, Repowering, and Risk Mitigation Target offers a tool that
can help project developers initially assess technology risk. Using a design evolution approach,
project developers can review and evaluate “pedigree matrices” for various CT product lines
(see Chapter 30).

These assessments can be improved by tapping into data developed in EPRI’s Durability
Surveillance Program. A more effective monitoring and inspection program is enabling better
data gathering for the leading F, G, and H class units in peaking, intermediate, and baseload
service. Of course, as unit operating hours increase, we gather more data, identifying new
potential problem areas, as well as assuring that past problems have been effectively solved via
design changes. Inputting these emerging fleet statistics into O&M cost estimation software
being developed by EPRI (see Chapter 31), which can be used in conjunction with CT
Workstation (see Chapter 32), further refines project developer ability to assess technology risk.

To shorten the length of time needed to assess the performance of new CT models that
incorporate new technologies or redesigned components, EPRI is also working on ways to
accelerate machine testing. By simulating turbine operation in this accelerated fashion, we
hope to help project developers avoid potential costs associated with premature wear-out. Such

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capability would help surface part life issues relatively soon after introduction of a new CT
model.

John Scheibel
Technical Area Manager
New Central Stations

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FUEL RISK: THE IMPACT OF FUEL SWITCHING

The following is an overview of a longer article recently prepared by the Energy Markets and
Generation Response Target.

In the last four years, growth in natural gas demand has been nonexistent (i.e., 0.2 percent per
year), despite strong economic growth in the U.S. (i.e., 4.1 percent per year). On the surface, this
portrays a bleak picture for future growth in demand for natural gas. Yet this assessment is
flawed because much of the underlying growth in gas demand in recent years has been masked.
The major factors masking this underlying growth in demand are relatively warm winters over
the last three years (reducing demand by 500-700 BCF/yr) and fuel switching to residual fuel oil
(slowing demand up to 500 BCF/yr). The combination of these two factors potentially represents
over one TCF in additional gas demand that is likely to emerge in the near future.

This article examines the latter factor, which is a significant component in the projected surge in
gas demand for 2000. More importantly, this article illustrates that under almost any combination
of expected oil and gas prices over the next one to three years, this hidden component of gas
demand is likely to emerge.

Switching to Fuel Oil

When the demand for electricity increases, plant owner/operators can meet this demand in their
dual-fuel steam generators using either natural gas or fuel oil. While demand for electricity has
increased by 2.2 percent per year over the last four years, gas-fired generation has declined
slightly over the last several years. Since total oil and gas-fired generation has grown 12 percent
in the last four years, clearly, fuel oil has been the fuel of choice to meet marginal demand for
electricity over this period. The reason is that residual fuel oil prices dipped below gas prices,
particularly during the 1998/1999 oil price crisis. However, natural gas is now in a position to
recapture its share of the dual-fuel market. When this occurs, the underlying growth in this
component of demand that has been occurring over the last several years will emerge as a single
upward spike in demand.

As shown in Figure 28-1, the share of oil and gas-fired generation captured by oil has risen from
15 percent in 1995 to 25 percent in 1999. Although several factors have historically influenced
fuel switching in either dual-fuel boilers or via dispatch, the primary factors since 1995 have
been rising gas prices and declining residual fuel oil prices—which bottomed out at $1.39 per
MMBTU.

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Figure 28-1
Petroleum Generation as a Percent of Total Gas and Petroleum Generation—Annual Basis
in the U.S.

Figure 28-2 illustrates how natural gas has recently begun to recapture its share of the dual-fuel
market. When oil prices collapsed to approximately $10 per barrel in the first quarter of 1999,
residual fuel oil was able to capture nearly 40 percent of the total market for oil and gas-fired
generation. However, when the 1999 OPEC accord to reduce oil production took effect, oil’s
share of this market began to decline, as oil prices reached $30 per barrel. By the fourth quarter
of 1999, oil’s share of the oil and gas-fired generation market had declined to 18 percent. The
equivalent full year impact of this lower number would be an additional demand for natural gas
of approximately 320 BCF.

Figure 28-2
Petroleum Generation as a Percent of Total Gas and Petroleum Generation—1998-99
Monthly Basis in the U.S.

As a result of OPEC’s recent announcement to modestly increase production levels, oil prices
have declined from peak levels of $34 per barrel to about $27 per barrel. This has reduced the
cost of residual fuel oil, albeit modestly. On the other hand, natural gas prices have increased
sharply in anticipation of a surge in gas demand, of which fuel switching back to natural gas is a
major component. This rise in prices complicates predictions of when natural gas will recapture
its share of the steam generation market. Yet, clearly this recapture has already begun, and the

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remaining is likely to be recaptured once sufficient new gas-fired capacity comes online in the
next one to three years.

EPRI Perspective

The natural gas industry appears to have entered a new phase in which gas prices, based on the
current NYMEX forward “strip,” are 30 to 40 percent above 1998 gas prices and approximately
15 percent above several long-term forecasts. This shift can have a significant impact on owners
and developers of gas-fired assets who have based their strategies on relatively low forward price
curves for gas. These higher gas prices will also alter the competition between new gas-fired
assets and existing coal-fired assets (i.e., gas will not displace existing coal-fired generation,
even in light of coal’s additional environmental costs).

This higher price environment appears to be more than a short-term phenomenon as a result of
some weather event; to the contrary, a surge in demand appears to be occurring despite a mild
winter.

While this analysis focuses on fundamental developments and its results are reinforced by
current spot and forward prices trends, the NYMEX strip may not be an accurate predictor of
spot prices, and actual natural gas prices may remain volatile. Moreover, this article examines
only one demand side factor that affects the natural gas market. But clearly this trend bears close
examination by project developers.

For more information on EPRI fuel and power supply assessments, contact Jeremy Platt,
jplatt@epri.com.

Editor’s Note: The full version of this article, available to funders of the Energy Markets and
Generation Response Target, provides the details of this analysis at a regional level and extends
the analysis to combined cycles. Subsequent articles in development by the Energy Markets and
Generation Target will address supply developments in the pivotal Gulf offshore and Western
Canadian supply regions. These articles complement EPRI’s 2000 research project on the gas-
electric interface, which is conducting a regional, integrated analysis of factors shaping the gas
supply outlook and the competitiveness of gas-fired generation.

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TECHNOLOGY RISK ASSESSMENT

For combustion turbine based power plant projects employing new technology, uncertainties can
exist in the following areas:

Technology performance — Will the technology consistently produce the expected

performance; will performance degrade over time; what is the rate of degradation; and is the
degradation fully recoverable after a major overhaul?

Design and manufacturing — Does the technology improvement involve materials, procedures,
or expertise that may pose quality, maintenance, or availability related problems; and were
changes made to other aspects of the component or system design that could adversely impact
performance or maintenance of these parts?

Construction, installation, and commissioning — Are the skills and resources available to
deploy, commission, and operate the technology on-site?

Wear and tear costs — Will the systems or components achieve their forecasted normal
operating life expectancies; what will be the cost of normal maintenance and parts; will quality
or availability problems materialize on maintenance parts; will components initially fail; will
resources be available to address initial start-up and performance problems; and will unplanned
failures occur?

In spite of these uncertainties, project developers and technology suppliers are motivated to
address the barriers to deploying new technology. A new plant with lower production costs can
provide the developer with a significant competitive advantage. This has resulted in
modifications to traditional commercial documents such as warranties and guarantees and the
emergence of new business opportunities in the area of operating and maintenance contracts, or
long-term service agreements. Each of these is aimed at controlling or off-loading some of the
financial risks onto other parties so that lenders will provide financing and be assured of
adequate cash flow to cover debt payments.

Four-Pronged Approach

To evaluate these risk mitigation options and decide which ones make economic sense, project
developers must quantify the technology-related risks of the project. To help project developers
in this area, EPRI has recently released its framework for Technology Risk Assessment in
Combustion Turbine Based Power Plants. This EPRI report, released in December 1999, outlines
a process for evaluating options and communicating results to the financial community by

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focusing on technology risk, risk mitigation, and cost containment options. The report points out
that challenges in this area are significant and can be grouped into the following four major areas
(see Figure 29-1):

1. Examining the design evolution of a brand of machine, which identifies high risk areas

2. Focusing durability surveillance efforts on new machines, as a starting point for data
collection

3. Expanding this database via collaborative data collection to obtain a more complete picture
of new model durability

4. Conducting focused studies in high technology risk areas, such as blade coating life and
advanced NOx control.

Figure 29-1
EPRI’s Four-Pronged Approach to Durability and Risk Assessment Activities.

Design Evolution

When sufficient historical statistical data are not available on a particular CT model, engineering
judgment is required to estimate possible failure frequencies based on design features and
similarity to earlier designs for which data area available. “Pedigree matrices” consist of
potential impact evaluations of a list of design features. The new design is compared with its
closest comparable precedent designs (i.e., designs that share the same basic origin and have
many similar key characteristics). See the Chapter 30 for more information on the use of design
evolution to assess technology risk.

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Durability Surveillance

To address the second area, information from pre-commercial and early commercial installations
of new technology is critically important. The EPRI Durability Surveillance Program has an
established record of detecting potential maintenance problems early in the technology life cycle
and avoiding serious operating incidents. This program provides engineering analysis of
monitoring, diagnostic and inspection data. Its objective is to minimize the likelihood of
unscheduled outages and to optimize the scheduling of major component overhauls, thereby
providing greater assurance that the unit will operate when needed.

Collaborative Data Collection

EPRI’s Combustion Turbine and Combined Cycle (CT/CC) O&M Target, which focuses on
combustion turbine and combined cycle plant life optimization, is focusing on the third area.
This Target provides a unique opportunity to gain an understanding of part life estimation,
inspection, overhaul, and repair resource requirements, and industry-wide experience with
O&M procedures and machine specific needs.

EPRI participates in the Operational Reliability Analysis Program (ORAP), maintained by

Strategic Power Systems (SPS), while CT owners voluntarily contribute data to ORAP. This
effort and EPRI’s work with SPS on the new initiative called ORAP LINK are examples of
ways the CT/CC O&M Target is collecting significant maintenance data without compromising
competitive information. With a few exceptions, a single power producer does not have a
sufficiently large fleet of any one design to collect statistically significant data. Therefore,
cooperative efforts to collect, validate, and analyze maintenance data are of high value for
assessing both commercially established technology and newly released technology
(see Chapter 36 of the September 1999 issue).

Focused Studies

Regarding the fourth area, the New CT Design, Repowering, and Risk Mitigation Target, along
with the CT/CC O&M Target, undertake focused studies on specific technology and design
issues. These include investigation of thermo-acoustic burner instability (humming),
development of blade coating life estimation algorithms, and evaluation of advanced NOx control
technologies. These studies cover both commercial and pre-commercial technologies and can
provide valuable information on how new designs incorporating the latest developments will
stand up in commercial service.

To order the EPRI report on technology risk assessment (TR-113988), call (800) 313-3774 and
select option 4. EPRI is updating this report to include an expanded discussion of fuel, market,
and maintenance life-cycle risks for release in late 2000.

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ASSESSING RISK BY EXAMINING CT DESIGN
EVOLUTION

The advanced technology CTs introduced into the market today carry an associated degree of
technical risk because of the new technologies incorporated into their design. A recently issued
EPRI report (TR-114081) reviews the design evolution of industrial frame CTs in a consolidated
format, which allows a qualitative assessment of the technical risks of installing these turbines.

Faster to Market CTs

Economic pressures of a market moving toward deregulation are driving the introduction of new
technologies and advanced gas turbine designs at an ever increasing pace—a process that
inherently involves risk. In the past, the rate of incorporation of military and commercial aviation
gas turbine technology into industrial CTs was slow due to limited production schedules
(compared to military or commercial aviation) and was largely limited to the under 50-MW class
of industrial aeroderivative gas turbines. In recent years, this technology has been incorporated
into the new generation frame machines to create more efficient and powerful plants at lower
costs by taking advantage of the development efforts and costs initially absorbed by the
commercial and military development programs. At the same time, the availability of computer-
aided engineering, design, and manufacturing programs, as well as the significant current
worldwide manufacturing capability have facilitated this process.

New machines are moving from the drawing board to production testing earlier in the learning
curve than in the past. This is important because the new machines are incorporating a range of
advanced technologies in a hybrid arrangement, including frame technologies, aerodesigned flow
paths, aerodesigned cooling technologies, and industrial designed low NOx combustion systems.

To meet the operating demands of power generation gas turbines, manufacturers have
incorporated advanced industrial thermal barrier coatings (TBCs), oxidation resistant coatings,
bond coat technologies, large size single crystal blade and vane manufacturing processes, single
digit dry low NOx combustion systems, and integrated electronic digital control systems that
handle more than 4800 input/output parameters. The trends by all four major manufacturers
(ABB-Alstom, General Electric Power Systems, Siemens Power Corp., and Siemens
Westinghouse) are similar, with the adoption of aviation technology into flow paths and
corresponding advances in materials, cooling schemes, coatings, and clearance control.

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Design Evolution and Risk

In order to understand the risk associated with new product introductions, the changes in the new
products must first be understood. Because the advanced technology machines being introduced
into the market today are evolved from existing CTs and design practices, the first step in
assessing the technical risks associated with the new machines is to understand the heritage upon
which the new designs are based.
To this end, EPRI has reviewed the design characteristics of the turbine product lines of ABB-
Alstom, GE, Siemens Power Corp., and Siemens Westinghouse. For each manufacturer, EPRI
then developed a “pedigree matrix,” which consolidates information for each model into a format
that allows the design evolution of the machines to be reviewed and major design changes, or
areas of potential risk, to be evaluated.
Table 30-1 illustrates a representative portion of the resulting pedigree matrix for the GE product
line. For each manufacturer, the report contains approximately eight pages of 11 x 17 fold-out
tables. For each design characteristic, the table lists the design implementation for each model in
the product line, and includes comments in the areas of reliability, maintainability, and
durability. For convenience, major design changes from one model to another model are
highlighted in bold.

Rotor Problems
One example of a major design change that led to reduced availability and uncertainty of long-
term durability is the change in rotor construction from GE’s E class machines to its F machines.
While the GE 7E and 7EA rotors used a straight-through tie bolt set, CrMoV wheels, spacers,
and stub shafts, the 7F employed three tie bolt sets, IN-706 wheels and spacers with a CrMoV
forward stub shaft, and an IN-706 aft stub shaft. Although E and EA rotor construction proved
very reliable, forging size and expense caused designers to seek alternatives in F class rotor
components. This was the root cause of significant problems that resulted in the F rotors,
including turbine rotor sag leading to wheel, spacer, and tie-bolt distress. These problems, which
recurred in the 7FA, impacted availability due to unplanned maintenance to upgrade/repair
rotors. To date, F class long-term durability remains unproven.
These problems also illustrate the methodology used in the design evolution matrices. When a
design change is made from one model to another, the change is initially rated as a moderate risk
(to reflect the lack of operating experience) if it initially seems to pose few or no technological
challenges. A change in rotor construction falls in this category. If the design change exhibits
few or no problems over a reasonable amount of operating time, the change is downgraded to a
low risk.
Conversely, if the change results in problems during early operation, the methodology allows for
manufacturer design changes to correct the problem. However, if these design changes do not
correct the problems, the design change is rated as a high risk and remains at that rating until
sufficient operating time passes without significant problems, to demonstrate that the problem
has been solved. This methodology departs from the manufacturer’s philosophy that once a
problem has been addressed via design changes, it is no longer a high risk design change.

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Table 30-1
A Representative Portion of the Pedigree Matrix for the GE Product Line, Illustrating the Information Now Available.

Product Offerings
Operational Considerations
First Production or Launch Unit
Design 7E/9E &
7F (9F) 7FA (9FA) 7H (9H) Reliability Maintainability Durability Comments
Characteristic 7EA/9EC
Turbine Buckets – IN-738 GTD-111DS, GTD-111DS, Single-Crystal Repairability Coating Loss and Clearly the
Stg. 1 Coated, Coated, Coated, N5 Coated, concerns exist with Substrate Limiting
Cooled Serpentine Serpentine Steam-Cooled Directionally- Oxidation limit life Component in all
Cooled Cooled Solidified and in all models. models. Steam
Single-Crystal Steam Cooling Cooling concept
buckets. adds new requires massive

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challenges. development,
testing, and
verification effort.
Turbine Buckets – IN-738 Cooled, GTD-111 GTD-111 GTD-111DS Repairability Shroud Deflection Steam Cooling
Stg. 2 Shrouded Equiaxed, Equiaxed, Coated, concerns exist with limited life on concept required
Coated, Cooled, Coated, Cooled, Steam-Cooled Directionally- some E, EA units. massive
Shrouded Shrouded Solidified and Shroud Z-lock development,
Single-Crystal wear is an issue testing, and
buckets. with the F/FA. verification effort.
Turbine Buckets – U-500, GTD-111 GTD-111 Currently limited to
Stg. 3 Shrouded Equiaxed, Equiaxed, 16000 hours of
Uncoated, Uncoated, operation due to
Shrouded Shrouded creep damage.
Turbine Rotor Straight- 3 Tie Bold Sets, 3 Tie Bolt Sets, 1 Straight- E, EA Increased size and Long-Term Forging size and
Construction Through Tie (Generation 1 & (Generation 3): Through Tie construction weight of F and H durability of F expense caused
Bolt Set, 2): IN-706 IN-706 Stg. 1 & Bolt Set, 4 proved very Class rotors makes Class rotors is still designers to seek
CrMoV Wheels and 2 Wheels, IN- Stages, All IN- reliable. lifting and transport unknown. alternatives in F
Wheels, Spacers with 706 1-2, 2-3 718 Wheels Changes in F more difficult. Inadequately Class Turbine
Spacers, and CrMoV Forward Spacers, M-152 Rotor shot-peened IN- Rotor
Stub Shafts Stub Shaft, IN- Stg. 3 Wheel, construction led 706 wheels and components. This
706 Aft Stub CrMoV Forward to significant spacers suffered was the real root
Shaft and Aft Stub problems. H micro-cracking cause of the
Shafts Rotor and had to be problems that
(Generation 4): construction is replaced on some followed.
All IN-706 similar to E, EA, early F Class
Wheels, but with Inconel units. The larger
Spacers, Stub Wheels and only 50-Hz rotor
Shafts 2 bearings. inherently has a
reduced torque
capacity.

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Single Crystal Concerns

The increase in firing temperatures necessary to achieve the efficiencies of advanced gas turbine
designs creates material challenges that are one of the highest risk areas of these machines. Even
using single crystal materials and complex cooling schemes, TBCs are required to maintain
acceptable metal temperatures. The long-term durability of the single crystal materials is still to
be proven in a large industrial scale gas turbine. Further, manufacturing of the single crystal parts
of the size required is not yet fully mature—resulting in low yield rates and subsequently very
high parts costs. In addition, there are no acceptable repair procedures for these blades. With
some of the advanced TBCs, stripping and recoating procedures are not yet firmly developed.
For example, in the GE product line, the increase to 2600° F (1430° C) firing temperature in the
7H/9H led to the use of single crystal N5 coated, steam cooled turbine nozzles and buckets
(stg.1). These turbine buckets are clearly the limiting component in all GE models. The EPRI
report indicates that coating loss and substrate oxidation limit life in all models, adding that
steam cooling requires a significant development, testing, and verification effort. The first H
class units are now in field testing; a 9H in Beglan, Wales will begin commercial operation in
2002, and a 7H in Scriba, New York will begin such operation one year later.
In addition to the single crystal blade technology, the dry low NOx (DLN) combustion systems
are one of the highest risk areas for all of the gas turbine manufacturers. The GE design
incorporates a multi-nozzle premixed design. As with all DLN systems, the increased complexity
of the required piping and valves reduces reliability, availability, and maintainability.
While the tables in TR-114081 do not contain quantitative reliability, availability, and
maintainability statistics, EPRI’s New CT Design, Repowering, and Risk Mitigation Target is
currently revising the report to incorporate RAM statistics to better establish design maturity
growth. To be available late in 2000, the new report will also update all ratings on the turbines
included in the 1999 report and include aeroderivative turbines.

Beyond the Pedigree Matrix

The design pedigree matrix is the first step in establishing the underlying technology risks
associated with new advanced, high firing temperature combustion turbines. This step is
followed by the durability surveillance program, the object of which is to monitor early field
experience, surface design deficiencies, and assist in implementing corrective modifications. As
the model fleet develops, reliability and availability data are acquired and reported through the
1400-machine ORAP database (see Chapter 36 in the September 1999 issue).

To order the EPRI report Combustion Turbine Design Evolution and Risk: Pedigree Matrices
for ABB, General Electric, Siemens Westinghouse and Siemens Power Advanced Machines
(TR-114081), November 1999, call (800) 313-3774 (option 4). Updated pedigree matrices,
incorporating the most recent CT models, are also available online at www.epri.com. Other
reports supporting CT design assessment include TR-113988, Technology Risk Assessment in
Combustion Turbine Plants, as well as TR-113978, Thermal Performance of the ABB GT 24,
and TR-113986, Performance of the Siemens V84.3A, which cover recent durability surveillance
experience.

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MAINTENANCE COST ESTIMATION: REDUCING
TECHNOLOGY UNCERTAINTY

Until recent years, a relatively certain market for power enabled project developers to assume a
reasonable level of technology risk in their CT projects. Today, project developers have their
hands full addressing market uncertainty. In this environment, developers and their financiers are
interested in reducing the risk of new technologies in their plants. Since this risk involves the
initial selection of CT model (with its inherent new technologies), project developers need a way
to evaluate their choices. But these risks also involve how reliably the new model will operate,
and what components will wear out prematurely. Hence, these risks span both the initial
specifying and purchasing of CTs, as well as decisions made throughout the life of the units.

The LTSA Purchase Decision

Since the sum of CT maintenance costs over the life of a unit can amount to 2-3 times more
than the up-front capital cost, reducing maintenance cost uncertainty is on the minds of project
developers. In fact, by raising the specter of high maintenance costs and their uncertainty
up-front, OEMs make a persuasive argument for project developers to consider purchasing
long-term service agreements (LTSAs). At the same time, demand for better, lower cost parts
is starting to align market resources towards providing alternate supply sources. This is a second
major area in which project developers need a way to evaluate their options.

Figure 31-1 illustrates the complexity of the decision whether or not to purchase an LTSA.
Plotting the life-cycle maintenance costs for a particular baseload machine, the plot shows
reference, LTSA, and actual costs. The reference case represents the OEM’s estimation of life-
cycle maintenance costs (including all combustion inspections, hot gas path overhauls, and major
overhauls), as well as the maintenance cost potentially available from third-party providers based
on this reference case. The LTSA chart shows how OEMs may add a premium atop the reference
case costs, which represents their increased risk exposure. But the plot also shows that in reality,
premature wear-out of components, combined with rising parts costs associated with sole source
part supply, can drive costs even higher than the LTSA life-cycle cost. At the same time,
technological improvements can lower these costs as better parts are installed at overhauls.

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Figure 31-1
Comparison of Actual Life-Cycle Maintenance Cost to Life-Cycle LTSA Costs and
“Reference” Life-Cycle Maintenance Cost.

Aware of these trends, OEMs may offer LTSAs at lower annual costs for longer-term contracts
than for shorter-term ones. But the trade-off for project developers is that committing to a long
duration LTSA means they are unlikely to benefit from the potential availability of lower cost
parts (through third parties), nor will they fully realize the benefits of technological advances in
these parts. In fact, the OEM realizes these benefits, since their revenue is fixed from the LTSA,
while their costs decrease as parts costs drop and fewer parts prematurely wear out due to
technological advancements.

Technological improvements tend to favor project developers who install CTs in peaking duty.
Problems associated with new technology in new CT models tend to surface more rapidly in
units pressed into baseload service, simply because the added operating hours stress the new
components. Once fixes for problems are identified, they can be incorporated into peaking units
before they develop these problems—assuming the problems are related to number of hours of
service. This means that an LTSA might be a harder sell to a peaking unit developer, unless that
developer is highly motivated to minimize technology risk. Today, F class machines are being
operated in peaking, intermediate, and baseload service.

CTCC O&M Cost Estimator

EPRI is developing tools to help project developers evaluate these options—both for initial
selection of CT model, and for evaluation of the merit of LTSAs. Now available, EPRI’s CTCC
O&M Cost Estimator is a spreadsheet product that provides a framework for guiding the user
through the process of O&M cost estimating.

This tool can be used for simple cycle, cogeneration, and combined cycle plants. It enables the
user to define the type of service intended for the plant and the plant capacity rating, and then

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either accept a series of default values or provide specific inputs for items such as service factor,
number of normal starts, number of full load trips, operating time on primary and secondary fuel,
staffing quantities, direct and indirect labor rates, fixed non-labor operating costs, major and
minor inspection/overhaul costs, and auxiliary power costs. The O&M Cost Estimator also
includes the GE, ABB, Siemens and Siemens-Westinghouse algorithms for calculating
equivalent hours, factored operating hours, factored starts, and baseload starts as appropriate.
With information organized in a financial framework, the O&M Cost Estimator calculates
operating costs and maintenance costs, develops an annual cash flow projection for use in a pro
forma, provides a present value analysis, and offers a range of useful charts (see Figure 31-2).

The O&M Cost Estimator is a Windows Excel 97-compatible product that can be used
independently or as an adjunct to the SOAPP-CT WorkStation (see Chapter 32). Summary
outputs can be used as inputs to the WorkStation for a complete project economic analysis based
on the user’s specific O&M requirements.

Figure 31-2
Components of Life-Cycle O&M Costs—an Output of EPRI’s CTCC O&M Cost Estimator.

Risk Assessment Tool Coming Soon

The O&M Cost Estimator provides a useful framework for inputting deterministic information to
estimate CT maintenance costs. In parallel, EPRI is developing a framework for use of
probabilistic outage data for particular models. Called the CT Project Risk Analyzer and planned
for release late in 2000, this new framework will feature built-in probabilistic outage cost data
for particular CTs, including the GE 7FA and Westinghouse 501F models, derived from ORAP.

Tool users will also input a variety of deterministic information on the costs and coverage of risk
mitigation options such as LTSAs. The tool will use this information along with the ORAP data

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to calculate unplanned annual maintenance costs, including what portions of these are covered by
the LTSA or other risk mitigation option, and what portion is not covered. In addition to also
estimating lost revenue from these outages based on user inputs, the tool will provide a cash flow
analysis that displays the costs of the risk mitigation options, various fixed O&M costs, and
various variable O&M costs, including the portion covered or not covered by the risk mitigation
options. The tool will also include a more detailed estimate of scheduled maintenance costs,
examining repair and replacement intervals and costs at the component level.

Figure 31-3
CTCC O&M Cost Estimator.

This tool will enable users to carefully evaluate the merits of various LTSAs and other risk
mitigation options. Using a Monte Carlo based statistical analysis, the software will display
probabilistic distributions of costs with and without the mitigation options. This means that a
project developer will be able to determine whether purchasing an LTSA will reduce total
maintenance costs, with a 90% confidence, for example.

For more information on these tools, contact EPRI’s Dale Grace, (650) 855-2527, or
dgrace@epri.com.

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SOAPP-CT VERSION 5.0 RELEASED

The recently released Version 5.0 of the popular SOAPP®-CT software program features updated
costs and CT information, as well as a host of significant enhancements. These enhancements
provide users with additional flexibility and improved analysis support. The upgrades are
particularly useful in the context of project development and
engineering/procurement/construction contract approaches typically used in new plant
construction.

SOAPP-CT contains the following updated costs and CT performance data:

· Updated capital cost models and commodity estimates, including all balance-of-plant
equipment, based on recent data from actual projects, commodity indices, and market
considerations
· Updated O&M costs for simple cycle, cogeneration, and combined-cycle plants, plus new
user input options for defining plant duty cycle and specifying fixed and variable O&M costs
· Updated cost, performance, and emissions data for the 63 gas turbines already modeled in
version 1.7 of SOAPP-CT, based on new data from manufacturers
· New CT model performance and emission models derived from manufacturer-supplied data
and equipment cost data, including the ABB GT10C and GT8C2 (50 and 60 Hz), the Hitachi
H25 and variants of the GE/S&S Energy Products LM6000—increasing the total number of
CTs modeled in SOAPP-CT to over 70

The software includes the following project management and cycle design enhancements:
· Updated project schedule models to reflect today’s compressed project development
schedules, based on recent data from actual projects
· Increased user flexibility for project financing, including specification of separate interest
rates for the construction loan and permanent/term loan
· Display of additional CT information in the Unit Input Data Set CT selection list
· Increased flexibility for cycle design criteria, including use of both a vacuum deaerator and
an air-cooled condenser in a combined cycle, and specification of either a duct burner outlet
temperature or a main steam flow rate

SOAPP-CT also now supports a range of plant equipment options, including the following:
· Multiple steam turbine extractions
· New condensate process return algorithm

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· New pump sparing options

· Wet mechanical draft cooling tower control
· Expanded options for the fuel gas compressor

The new version also incorporates improved LAN installation and multi-user support, enhanced
WorkStation validation routines, and improved ways to review output cycle design and
performance. To order SOAPP-CT, call Kimberly Beatty at (312) 845-2262 or email
info@soapp.com.

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INTURB DATABASE NOW ONLINE

EPRI’s popular INTURB database is now available online. At www.inturb.com, combustion

turbine owners can perform either of the following:
· Conduct a search of the database to identify the owners of a specific CT manufacturer and
model. Using this capability, a power producer can compare notes with a contemporary using
a similar machine who probably has experienced similar problems. Not only can they obtain
speedy answers to their questions, but they can also contact each other readily to buy or swap
spare parts.
· Update data in the INTURB database on combustion turbines that their company owns or
operates.

To provide a common frame of reference for power producers, EPRI sponsored development of
INTURB, which contains gas turbine data on over 1600 CTs representing over 45,000 MW in
electric generating capacity. The database contains information on the large machines operating
in the United States and a growing international base, including those of utilities and independent
power producers. It provides status data on models and makes, site names and locations, number
of engines per site, unit numbers and power, and NOx control—along with names, titles,
addresses, and phone numbers of pertinent plant personnel.

To begin benefiting from INTURB use, visit www.inturb.com today.

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MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO
SEPTEMBER, 1999 ISSUE

The aggressive introduction of new burner and hot section technology in F class CTs has led to
more complex designs with more temperature-limited parts, and correspondingly higher
maintenance costs than previous models (see Chapter 35). With the next generation of G/H
machines, as inlet firing temperatures continue to rise, blade thermal barrier coatings may
become the key life constraining factor (also known as the “prime reliant”). This, in turn, may
necessitate blade replacement every 25,000-30,000 hours, at a cost of as much as $2.8 million
per row.

CT maintenance approaches are derived from aircraft practices in which owners typically have
little control over inspection and replacement intervals. For CTs, the OEM equivalent hour
calculation is the de facto standard for maintenance planning. Despite the apparent sophistication
of the calculation, commercial considerations and the complexity of incorporating numerous
technical modeling assumptions require power producers to develop an independent
understanding of their machine.

While efficiency gains may justify the selection of machines with higher maintenance costs, the
CT manager is eventually challenged to contain and reduce the non-fuel maintenance budget
without adversely impacting the availability/reliability machine mission. To this end, the
seasoned manager employs a mixture of business and technical approaches to reduce costs. This
market demand spawns creative business approaches and technology improvements.

Through its collaboration with CT owners, EPRI has a long history of serving the needs of the
maintenance manager. By seeking technology innovations focused on improvements in
predicting and planning maintenance, assessing damage, and improving design performance and
durability, EPRI seeks to create total technology solutions. Viewed together, these elements form
a comprehensive life management program that addresses all aspects of containing and reducing
CT life cycle cost. These aspects include minimizing forced and planned outages, extending
useful life, and providing more durable and cost effective replacement components.

In this issue of Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report, we focus on three key aspects
of such CT life management. First, to address power producers’ needs to achieve stated
maintenance intervals and increase the durability of components, EPRI is directing a CT blade
coating technology program (see Chapter 37). Second, to extend the life of blades, EPRI is
developing resources that power producers can use to make the most of their weld repairs
(Chapter 38). Third, EPRI is improving analytic capability and applying these new algorithms to
enable life prediction and evaluation of design improvements (Chapter 39). In addition,

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superimposed on these efforts is the need to correlate our models with empirical data—the
motivation behind EPRI use of the ORAP database (see Chapter 36).

Via the CT O&M Target’s Advanced Life Management value option, the EPRI 2000 offering
provides access to useful products and techniques that are customized to various machine
designs.

John Scheibel
Technical Manager,
New Central Stations

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OVERVIEW: CT BLADE FAILURE MODES AND CT LIFE
MANAGEMENT

Introduction

The evolution in blade cooling, materials, coatings and design technology (described in the
October 1998 issue of Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report) has resulted in dramatic
improvements in CT efficiency and specific power due largely to increases in firing temperature.
These advances in firing temperature, in turn, have resulted in more complex designs that
incorporate more temperature-limited parts. In F Class turbines, all stages are at or near the
temperature limit, with all but the last stage requiring cooling. While these advances often lead to
higher maintenance costs than previous models, these costs are more than offset by savings in
fuel costs for baseload applications. If these maintenance costs could be reduced, power
producers could enjoy lower overall operating costs.

This article covers F Class turbine blade failure modes and life management needs. A better
understanding of these failure modes—and life management strategies to deal with them—will
help power producers reduce O&M costs.

Creep Rupture and Deflection

Governed by average metal temperature, creep is the failure mode most sensitive to
temperature—a 50° C (90° F) non-conservative error in average temperature results in a four to
five fold reduction in creep life. The cost of a creep rupture failure, especially a first-stage failure
in which the entire superalloy blade path is usually destroyed, is enormous. For these reasons,
original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) use conservative procedures in designing against this
mode of failure (e.g., designing to a creep limit, not rupture) and in validating metal temperatures
before introducing a new design. As a result, creep rupture failures are extremely rare.

Oxidation/Corrosion

In cooled turbine blades and vanes, surface temperature is typically higher than the average
metal temperature. The temperature difference is larger in high firing temperature turbines, with
the higher degree of cooling required. As a result, surface degradation has become the primary
mode of failure in baseloaded machines firing above 1,100° C (2,000° F) and governs the time
between hot-gas-path maintenance intervals. Ultimate blade life is governed by the number of
times the coating can be renewed plus the runout life of the blades after coating protection is lost.

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Coatings are sacrificial and become ineffective once the protective elements are depleted below a
certain level. Early cracking of brittle coatings can accelerate this depletion due to subcutaneous
attack of the less protective MCrAlY undercoat or base metal—an effect observed in GT29+
coatings on Fr9FA buckets. In such cases, an inspection program designed to monitor when
damage becomes excessive is beneficial.

In Fr7/9FA buckets, maximum oxidation damage has been observed on the leading edge half
of the suction surface at midspan and at the tip—most notably on the pressure surface
(see Figure 35-1). The suction side distress correlates well with optical pyrometer measurements
and aerothermal analyses. Greater than expected by designers, the tip distress is associated
with the difficulty of cooling the squealer tip and with hotter than expected gas temperatures
in this region.

Figure 35-1
Results of Optical Pyrometry Measurements and Aerothermal Analyses Correlate well with
Observed Maximum Oxidation Damage—the Leading Edge Half of the Suction Surface at
Midspan in Fr7/9FA Buckets.

Generally, F Class gas turbine blades can only be recoated one time. Therefore, measures that
extend coating life and maintenance intervals significantly extend ultimate blade life and reduce
O&M costs.

Thermal Mechanical Fatigue (TMF)

TMF is usually the life-governing mode of failure in peaking machines, but is also a concern in
baseloaded machines that use duplex MCrAlY-aluminide coatings. The aluminide top coating is
brittle at lower temperatures and cracks prematurely due to trips from load. These cracks
generally do not reach the base metal in baseloaded machines with few start-stop cycles and load
trips, but can do so in peaking machines.

EPRI and others have found that the TMF life of specimens coated with such duplex coatings is
substantially less than that of specimens coated only with MCrAlY coatings—unless the initial
cracking of the brittle topcoat can be avoided. Omitting the aluminide topcoat could extend TMF
life, but would reduce coating life. Hence, the tradeoff of coating life versus TMF life must be
assessed to determine the best course.

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The TMF life of directionally solidified (DS) and single crystal (SC) alloys is greatly superior to
that of equiaxed (EA) castings (see Figure 35-2).

Figure 35-2
TMF Life of Directionally Solidified, Single Crystal, and Equiaxed Castings.

Vibration/High Cycle Fatigue (HCF)

Since designing against vibration failure is difficult, vibration is the most common cause of
engine wrecks. Typically an infant mortality problem, vibration failures can be eliminated once
the unanticipated source of vibration is identified and appropriate design changes are made to
solve the problem. Long time vibration failures sometimes occur due to turbine flow and
temperature distortions caused by damaged or malfunctioning upstream components (e.g.,
combustors), blade surface degradation (e.g., TMF cracking) or changes in operation. In these
cases, typical corrective actions include increased monitoring (e.g., exhaust temperature spread
or combustor pressure pulsations) and/or redesign. Blade vibration failures in the F Class
machines have been minimal, and those that have occurred were apparently satisfactorily
addressed.

Solution: Integrated Life Management

Devising ways to deal with the myriad blade failure modes requires an integrated “life
management” program of advancements in several areas (see Figure 35-3). Here, life
management includes life prediction or life assessment via calculational and monitoring, as
well as non-destructive evaluation (NDE) techniques (see Chapter 37). But in addition to
quantifying remaining life of CT components, life management encompasses the identification
and implementation of the steps necessary to extend CT life, such as through advanced
repair techniques (see Chapter 38). Life management also includes the development of ways
to reduce the first cost and improve the life of replacement parts (see Chapter 39).

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Figure 35-3
EPRI’s CT Three-Pronged Life Management Approach.

Despite the many complexities in life management, highly promising studies are making
progress toward resolving many issues. For example, researchers have demonstrated the
potential for improving coating life by incorporating rhenium diffusion barrier layers. Successful
weld repairs have been achieved on coupon samples of IN738, and this work is currently being
extended to actual IN738 and GTD 111 buckets. As a prerequisite to developing lower-cost,
longer life replacement blades, results of life prediction based on calculational methods for
Frame 7 buckets and nozzles agree closely with field experience. Results of aerothermal analyses
coincide closely with temperature measurements using optical pyrometry. The damage locations
also correspond precisely with those predicted by analysis. Successful completion of these
activities will undoubtedly contribute to improved life of CT components, decreasing O&M
costs and reducing costs for replacement components. For more information, see EPRI reports
TR-111548, TR-103392 and TR-109196-V1-2.

By Jim Allen and Vis Viswanathan

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ORAP™: IMPROVING COMPONENT DURABILITY
DATA

With ORAP Data Entry, data related to the life of CT parts can now be collected and input to
Strategic Power Systems’ (SPS) Operational Reliability Analysis Program (ORAP). Key data
include operating data (i.e., service hours, starts, and MWH generated), event data (i.e., all out-
age types, cause of the outage, symptoms, and corrective actions), and counter readings (i.e.,
service hours, starts, and equivalent operating hours). Part replacements and service bulletin
compliance can also be entered. This enables a variety of parts tracking in ORAP, including part
removal, disposition of the removed part, installation of a new part, and the source of the part.

Taking advantage of the wealth of information in this database, EPRI is also working with SPS
to create an improved empirical understanding of hot section durability. First, EPRI is
developing damage models that are based on controlled test data. Then, the predictions from
these models are compared with predictions from models that are based on ORAP data (field
experience gained from actual damaged blades). Over time, the goal is to achieve convergence
between the life predictions of these two types of models. Ultimately, this approach will enable
power producers to relate a specific design and operating characteristic to expected life, degree
of damage, extent of needed repair, and estimated costs. For more information, contact SPS’s
Sal DellaVilla, dellavilla@spsinc.com, (704) 544-5501.

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PREDICTING AND EXTENDING BLADE COATING LIFE

Degradation of protective blade coatings represents a major profitability challenge for power
producers. Coating life usually dictates blade refurbishment intervals, which typically are shorter
than desired for baseload units. Moreover, downtime for coating inspection and replenishment
requires dispatch of less-efficient generating equipment or purchase of replacement power.

Given present life prediction and condition assessment capabilities, however, conservatism is
warranted. Coating failure can lead to rapid, severe damage to the superalloy substrate. Effective,
long lasting repair methods are not yet available, and replacement of a single conventionally cast
alloy blade can cost $10,000, while the cost of an entire row can exceed $2 million. Directionally
solidified superalloy blades are even more expensive, and single-crystal superalloy blades may
cost three times as much as conventional ones.

Focusing on power producers’ needs to extend maintenance intervals and increase coating
lifetime, EPRI is directing a CT blade coating technology program, with the following elements:
· Predictive models for in-service assessment of coating degradation and remaining life
· Nondestructive evaluation methods for condition assessment
· Diffusion barriers for delaying coating degradation

Blade Materials

For rotating blades, prolonged exposure to high temperatures and stresses requires structural
materials to exhibit excellent oxidation and hot corrosion resistance, high thermal and low-cycle
fatigue resistance, long-term microstructural stability, creep resistance, and high-cycle fatigue
resistance to withstand various sorts of vibrating loading. In today’s highly cooled airfoils,
blades also need to tolerate large, highly localized stresses adjacent to cooling passages. Other
considerations include good castability, good coatability and relatively good weldability for ease
of manufacture and repair.

At present, conventionally cast precipitation-strengthened superalloys are the most common

blade material, while directionally solidified superalloys are the material of choice for CT blades
in advanced land-based engines. However, single-crystal superalloys offer much higher creep
strength and greater resistance to thermal fatigue, oxidation, and hot corrosion. While efforts
are underway to achieve additional improvements in the hot corrosion resistance and
cost-effectiveness of single-crystal materials, they are already being incorporated in current
CT models.

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Blade Coatings

Blade coating integrity is critical, as spalling or cracking can lead to rapid damage to the
superalloy substrate. Many of today's coatings are double-layer overlays, with an outer
aluminide layer and inner layer of McrAlY (“M” is Ni, Co, or some combination of the two).
Other elements are sometimes present in minor amounts to improve specific properties or for
metallurgical compatibility with the blade substrate.

Overlay coatings sometimes play another role, serving as a bond coat for thermal barrier coatings
(TBCs). These coatings, which consist of a porous layer of zirconium oxide (ZrO2 ) stabilized by
yttria (Y2O3 ) and magnesia (MgO), exhibit lower thermal conductivity. As a result, they
decrease metal surface temperature by as much as 100° C (200° F) and perhaps more
importantly, they eliminate hot spots, thus reducing thermal fatigue stress. TBCs are beginning
to see application in CT blades, and are extremely important to the uprating of machines.

COATLIFE Prediction Model

Life-limiting degradation modes for CT blades—particularly for advanced machines in baseload

service—include oxidation of the coating and spallation of the protective Al203 scale that forms
on the surface of aluminide, MCrAlY, and PtAl coatings. An additional degradation mode is
interdiffusion of elements of the coating and substrate, which reduces the amount of Al available
to form the protective oxide scale.

COATLIFE, a new mechanistic model for cycle-by-cycle prediction of the remaining useful life
of in-service coatings, is based on these physical degradation modes. EPRI’s Materials Center
for Combustion Turbines at Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) developed the model.
COATLIFE incorporates oxidation kinetics, oxide fracture and spallation, material differences,
overall kinetics of cyclic oxidation and depletion of Al, and a life prediction scheme based on the
Al concentration required to form a protective oxide layer.

Critical to its success is use of a fracture mechanics approach to derive explicit relationships
between the weight of oxide spalled and Al lost as a function of the number of thermal cycles,
and the oxide’s critical physical and mechanical properties. Earlier models have used empirical
correlations, limiting accuracy.

SwRI researchers obtained COATLIFE’s material constants by testing coated coupons from
GTD-111 blades in a cycle oxidation facility. The team then successfully validated these
constants by comparing predicted degradation levels with actual levels measured via optical
metallography in GTD-111 blades from an operating GE Frame 6B engine (see Figure 37-1).

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Figure 37-1
Calculated and Measured Volume ß Fraction Versus Number of Cycles.

A Reservoir for Al, the “Beta Phase”—Typically in the Form of NiAl or CoAl—Supplies the
Al needed to form Protective Aluminum Oxide at the Surface. Hence, Depletion of the Beta
Phase is a measure of Coating Degradation.

Based on the COATLIFE model and supporting data, EPRI has developed a coating life diagram
to provide a simple and rigorous means of forecasting the remaining life of an in-service coating
(see Figure 37-2). Power producers can use the diagram to predict time-to-failure for any
combination of cycle time and number of starts, including switches from peaking to baseload
service or vice versa. If the operating point is below the line, the coating remains protective and
has a remaining life as indicated. Hence, power producers can use the diagram to schedule blade
refurbishment before excessive oxidation of the base metal occurs. If the operating point is above
the line, the coating life has been exhausted, and immediate refurbishment is needed.

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Figure 37-2
COATLIFE Prediction of Protective and Failed Regimes.

As shown in the figure, the controlling damage mechanism along the coating failure boundary
varies with cycle time and temperature. In general, oxidation and spallation dominate at short
cycle times; oxidation and inward diffusion dominate long cycle times; and all three mechanisms
are involved at intermediate cycle times.

Swept Eddy Current

Another condition assessment method shows promise for nondestructive field inspection of
coatings. In recent work by Structural Integrity Associates, proof of concept has been established
for the use of swept-frequency eddy-current (SFEC) testing to determine coating integrity. SFEC
techniques measure resistivity changes in a coating at specific blade locations by sweeping the
point of interest on the blade over a frequency range of 500 kHz to 6 MHz for about 10 seconds.
These changes can be empirically correlated to the equivalent thickness of the coating’s ß-NiAl
layer, which indicates the amount of protective aluminide phase remaining, as well as to the
width of its interdiffusion layer. The relationships between formation of the beta phase depletion
zone, Al depletion, and coating deterioration are so strong that the depleted zone widths can be
used as an indicator of coating condition and to predict the operational temperature of service
exposed blades.

The SFEC method has successfully determined the condition of GT-29PLUS, GT 33PLUS, and
PWA 286 coatings on a GTD-111 substrate. In ongoing research, the technology is being used to
assess the remaining life of other common coatings applied to GTD-111 first row FA buckets.
Software is also being developed for integration with the SFEC field inspection system to present
graphic representations of key coating/base metal microstructures with depth.

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Extending Coating Life

By inhibiting degradation of CT blade coatings, the life of blades can be extended and the
frequency of coating refurbishment can be reduced.

In initial testing at SwRI, thin (0.5 µm) interlayers of Ni-Re were deposited onto coupons of
the blade superalloy IN738LC prior to the application of MCrA1Y coatings. Results indicate
that the Ni-Re interlayer can significantly decrease the growth rate of the inner ß-NiAl depletion
zone under oxidizing conditions, suggesting that it provides an important impediment to the
inward diffusion of Al into the substrate. Subsequent tests have demonstrated that this technique,
which promises to be both simple and cost effective in commercial application, can delay
coating degradation on other common blade superalloys, including GTD-111 and CM247
(see Figure 37-3).

Figure 37-3
Depletion Zone Thickness Versus Exposure Time.

EPRI is assessing the potential for thicker Ni-Re interlayers to further prolong coating lifetime
and is seeking a site for field-testing of this novel life extension method.

Future Work

Since COATLIFE requires accurate operating data to optimize effectiveness, the model’s best
use involves implementation through a plant monitoring or control system, rather than as an

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off-line model. EPRI plans to undertake further development and application efforts like these
as additional funding becomes available. Contact EPRI’s Vis Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com
or (650) 855-2450, for more information.

Editor’s Note: A similar version of this article, authored by Vis Viswanathan, Robert
Frischmuth, and Dave Gandy, originally appeared in the January 1999 issue of Power
Engineering magazine. The authors of this article also acknowledge Gerald Leverant of
SwRI and Cliff Wells of Structural Integrity Associates.

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APPLYING LASER WELDING TO CT BLADE REPAIR

The CT Welding Challenge

CT blades that have been damaged due to foreign objects passing through the turbine,
operational stresses, or inherent defects in the high stress location of the airfoil are difficult or
impossible to repair using traditional welding methods, as well as costly to replace. Certain
precipitate-forming elements (mainly aluminum and titanium) added to blade superalloys to
achieve unmatched high-temperature strength are primarily responsible for the poor welding
record. Weldability is limited principally by the behavior of these elements under high
temperature stress, which contributes to hot cracking during the welding process and strain
age cracking after welding, particularly during postweld heat treatment.

The weld filler materials that were identified as the most effective in the repair of precipitation
strengthened blade superalloys are simpler, solid-solution strengthened alloys. However, the
lower strength of these filler materials significantly limits applicability. Current industry practice
permits welding only in areas of very low stress; some 80 to 90 percent of blade surfaces are
considered non-repairable.

Laser: Greatest Potential

In a recent survey, OEM and repair vendors selected laser welding as the technique with the
greatest potential to improve welding in CTs (see EPRI Final Report TR-110355, Laser Welding
Survey for Power Generation Industry, April 1998). The reason is precision. With normal
welding, heating and cooling occur over a large area. Laser welding is more like a surgical
repair, affecting a localized, narrow weld width. Lasers also permit greater flexibility in alloy
compositions, allowing welders to concoct complex mixtures of metal powders appropriate for
specific applications.

Since workers have the option of defocusing the beam, lasers provide a means of in situ heat
treatment. After a highly focused beam melts the metal and the weld repair is performed, a
defocused beam, whose energy is spread out over a larger area, can be used to heat-treat the
surface. Laser welding is also a noncontact, line-of-sight process. Compared with conventional
methods, automated laser welding is faster and requires less finishing and machining.

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Laser Weld Advancement

The EPRI Repair and Replacement Applications Center (RRAC) in Charlotte, North Carolina
and several CT repair vendors are undertaking a collaborative program to develop and test laser
welding technology for both Inconel alloy IN 738 and GTD-111 alloys.
From the mid 1970s until the mid 1980s, IN 738 was the industry standard for CT blade
applications that entailed the most severe combination of stress and temperature. During the past
two years, EPRI Strategic Science & Technology and RRAC funded research to investigate the
use of laser welding for the repair of IN 738 blades. The central focus of the work was to
determine if laser welding procedures could be developed that would allow the use of stronger
weld filler materials without the cracking experienced in conventional arc welding processes.
In this effort, relatively large, crack-free laser welds were made using the blade alloy IN 939 as
the weld filler. The high power density inherent in the laser process dramatically reduces the
total quantity of heat required for welding; a reduction considered fundamental in the ability to
successfully employ alloy IN 939 as a weld filler for repairing IN 738. The structural integrity of
this base metal/filler metal combination is currently being evaluated in tensile, stress rupture, and
fatigue testing. Use of IN 939 as weld filler represents a significant advancement over the filler
currently used for the blade alloys and allows repairs to be made in higher-stressed regions of the
airfoil (see Figures 38-1 and 38-2).

Figure 38-1
IN939 Filler Deposit on an IN738 Specimen Heat Treated before and after Welding (50x
Magnification along the Weld Fusion Line).

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Figure 38-2
Comparison of Creep Strength for Blade Superalloys.

While specific procedures must be devised and tested, much of the repair technology developed
during the past two years for alloy IN 738 may also be applicable for the repair of advanced
blade superalloys that have been implemented in more recent gas turbine designs. For example,
originally introduced in 1984 in equiaxed (EA) blade castings, alloy GTD-111 represents a
modest but important advancement over alloy IN 738 and is still used in this form in several
models of General Electric gas turbines. GTD-111DS, a proprietary GE material, is currently the
most prevalent directional solidification (DS) alloy in utility size gas turbines. Production of DS
blades using GTD-111 composition began with the introduction of the advanced F/FA series gas
turbines in 1988 and is now used in the GE Frame 6B, and two-shaft Frames 5C and 3J.
EPRI is now undertaking a pro-gram to extend weld repair technology to GTD-111 alloys using
CO2 and Nd:YAG industrial laser welding systems. The following are specific program goals:
· Develop and demonstrate weldment high temperature (900° C, 1600° F) tensile strength
properties that are approximately 75 percent of equiaxed GTD-111 blade castings. This
would approximately double the tensile strength of repair welds made using current arc
welding technology and alloy IN 625 as the repair filler.
· Develop and demonstrate improved weldment creep strength; to quantify the improvement,
weldment creep rupture life at 20 ksi (140 MPa) should be equal to that of equiaxed GTD-
111 when the weldment test temperature is no more than 100° C (200° F) below that used for
the corresponding base alloy tests. For these test conditions, this represents an increase in
creep capability of more than 60° C (150° F) over IN 625 weldments made with the arc
welding processes in current use.
· Using finite element analysis, identify the expanded repair limits that can be employed for
GE 7FA or 9FA blade airfoils when the laser welding technology developed in the program
is used.
· Transfer the laser welding technology to a commercial repair vendor, making the technology
immediately available to the industry.
The work in this program will begin with the equiaxed form of GTD-111. Once baseline
parameter settings are confirmed by satisfactory metallography for the equiaxed material, the
procedure will be repeated for the DS form, and all subsequent program efforts will focus on the
DS material.

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In addition to base budget work in this area, EPRI is seeking members to participate in tailored
collaboration efforts in two areas: 1) to demonstrate weld repairs on actual in-service blades, and
2) to extend these techniques to GTD-111 material. For more information, see EPRI reports
TR-108272, GS-6544, GS-7302, and GS-7031 or contact EPRI’s Vis Viswanathan,
rviswana@epri.com or (650) 855-2450.

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BLADE MODELING FOR LIFE AND DESIGN
EVALUATION

The serviceability period for critical CT hot gas path components, presently dictated solely by
original turbine suppliers, can be highly limited. Since the cost to replace a row of blades ranges
from $1.5 to $2.5 million, power producers want to carefully assess and manage the life of their
equipment. To do this, they need analytical methods that can improve understanding of how a
particular design behaves under various operating conditions. This task is difficult since the
internally cooled CT blade in use today represents the cutting edge of turbine design. The
complexity of its design and operating environment has limited the application of advanced
analytical techniques in the design process.

Improved Analytic Capability

To address this need, EPRI is sponsoring development of practical algorithms that can account
for thermal-mechanical and creep damage that occurs to critical first-stage blades, and that can
correlate this damage to various operating conditions. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
techniques, structural analyses, and damage algorithms are designed to accommodate any given
geometry of a hot section component. Moreover, they can accommodate any specified operating
profile of start-stop cycles and operating hours—a capability not previously available. The
analytical framework for life management of blades consists of four tasks. The first involves
obtaining details of the external and internal geometry from sample buckets as required to
prepare the respective computer models, and to collect relevant operating data. The second step
involves performing an aero-thermal analysis in which the bucket airfoil temperatures are
calculated for steady state and transient operating conditions. Step three applies the thermal loads
calculated for the different operating conditions in order to profile the magnitude and distribution
of stresses that occur at critical sites within the bucket. The final step relates bucket stresses to
material properties, and relates operating parameters to the fatigue and creep damage that
accumulates or a given period and profile of unit operation.

REMLIFE

EPRI’s earliest attempts to develop a life management product resulted in a software package,
REMLIFE, which predicts the remaining life of first stage components for GE MS7001 B, E,
and EA engines. REMLIFE, available through EPRI since December of 1993, is an expert
system designed to assist in maximizing the useful service lives of critical first stage
components. REM-LIFE addresses the primary concerns of cracking of the first stage nozzle,
as well as thermal mechanical fatigue and creep of first stage buckets. With the exception of

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coating degradation, these are the life limiting modes of degradation for first stage components,
which play a pivotal role in determining maintenance intervals.

REMLIFE addresses nozzle cracking through empirically based algorithms based on the results
of 13 inspections for the Frame 7E engines and 9 inspections for the Frame 7B engines. The
thermal mechanical fatigue model for the first stage buckets combines General Electric (GE)
laboratory test results with the analytical results of thermal and mechanical stress analyses.
Thermal mechanical fatigue test results on IN-738 specimens with a GT-29 coating provided the
fatigue life characterization necessary for modeling and predicting the thermal mechanical
fatigue behavior of the bucket material system. Since cracks initiate in the coating and then
propagate into the base metal, the algorithm modeled both base material and coating. This
algorithm correlated very well with both field experience and results of independent efforts
available in the literature (see Figure 39-1).

Figure 39-1
EPRI’s Thermal Mechanical Fatigue Model Predicted Regions of Failure that were Borne
out by Metallurgical Observation.

Cracks were found in the “Cracks Predicted” Region, and Cracks were not Observed in the
“Cracks not Predicted” Region, as shown at left. The Photo at Right Illustrates a Predicted
Crack that has Propagated through the GT-29 Coating into the Base Metal.

Although a creep algorithm was initially developed for the Frame 7 REMLIFE program, field
experience indicated that creep is not a problem in the Frame 7 design. Essentially, a basic creep
algorithm exists that predicts little creep damage accumulation. This is consistent with the results
obtained through inspection and field experience.

Present Work

EPRI has extended this methodology to first stage GTD 111 equiaxed blades from the GE Frame
6B. Currently work is in progress on first stage GTD 111 directionally solidified alloy blades in
GE 7FA/9FA machines. This work includes determination of a range of both physical and
mechanical properties of the material. EPRI has measured bucket and nozzle dimensions and

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 Blade Modeling for Life and Design Evaluation

metal temperatures for 9FA blades using optical pyrometry; inspected and conducted
metallurgical examinations of a bucket after 14,000 hours of service; developed a finite
element analysis model; and completed steady state aero-thermal modeling. These recent
tests have shown that algorithm predictions correlate well with field data. For example, field-
collected pyrometry data confirmed predictions of aero-thermal algorithms in 9FA buckets
(see Figure 39-2). Stress analysis predictions also were borne out by observed cracking in
the buckets.

Figure 39-2
Comparison of Calculated Temperatures and Temperatures Determined via Pyrometry for
9FA Buckets.

The program features a series of checks and balances at critical points in the sequence from
model generation to damage assessment. Engine operating flows, temperatures, and pressures are
being characterized from actual operating data collected from the host plant’s data acquisition
system. Measurements of air flow through the internal passages of the buckets will be conducted
to check and refine the CFD modeling to be performed for the internal gas flow through the
cooling passages. A check of the heat transfer analysis will involve comparing predicted metal
temperatures against optical pyrometer data that EPRI collected previously from operating first
stage buckets. The emphasis of these multiple checks of computer results is to establish a
foundation of techniques and procedures—a sound, consistent methodology by which other hot
section components can be systematically evaluated.

Applying the New Algorithms

These algorithms provide a technical foundation for understanding the functional requirements
of replacement CT parts, including blades. In other words, the algorithms enable development of
a baseline against which to compare candidate design enhancements (e.g. location of internal
cooling passages, location and number of trailing edge bleeding holes, and adjustments to profile
trailing edge thickness). Local refinements could extend service life by reducing operating
stresses and temperature gradients in critical locations that are prone to cracking. For a given

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geometry, the system enables users to evaluate the adequacy of alternative materials or coatings,
and optimize structural features and internal cooling strategies.

Savings would result in the form of reduced O&M costs by safely extending the operating life of
a part by 20-25 percent beyond present specified operating limits. Moreover, some design
changes could facilitate improvement in the performance of the part, further extending its life.

EPRI is seeking additional members to participate in ongoing collaborative efforts in this area.
Contact EPRI’s Vis Viswanathan, rviswana@epri.com or (650) 855-2450, for more information.

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MANAGER’S REPORT: INTRODUCTION TO MAY, 1999
ISSUE

Deregulation of electricity supply and availability of a plentiful supply of low-cost natural gas
has created great opportunities for combustion turbine and combined-cycle power plant
development. But as a potential developer of these plants, you are now acutely aware that
deregulation has also increased the complexity of new project development. Building a new
power plant today requires an understanding of much more than CT and CC plant technology. In
addition to addressing technical challenges, you need to be able to accurately assess your market,
obtain favorable financing, and assess and mitigate financial risks over the life of the project.

In this issue of Gas Turbine Experience and Intelligence Report, we focus on the business side
of CTs and combined cycles. For example, recent projections that natural gas will fire as much
as one-third of the U.S. generation market by 2015 are, of course, highly dependent on the
continued low price of this fuel. A joint GRI/EPRI report addresses the deviation from normal
gas pricing patterns that occurred in recent winters (see Chapter 41). EPRI has analyzed
bellwether regions to aid understanding of how deregulation and the consequent market forces
impact generation technology selection for new capacity additions and repowering of existing
units (see Chapter 42).

Many of you are finding that CT prices are up about 20% in the United States, with order lead
times of 18 months and substantial down payments required. EPRI has recently completed a
study that provides an outlook for the future of CT and combined cycle hardware supply and
prices in North America and worldwide (Chapter 43). To help project developers evaluate
options for mitigating project risk, EPRI is developing a framework for quantifying the
lifecycle costs of a CT project. This framework will enable evaluation of various risk
mitigation approaches, including OEM service agreements and business interruption
insurance (Chapter 44).

Recognizing the strong interrelationship of fuels and market evaluation, the EPRI 2000 New
CT Design and Risk Mitigation Target offers value option packages in these respective areas.

John Scheibel
Business Unit Manager,
New Central Stations

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THE FUELS SIDE OF CT RISK

One of the greatest uncertainties surrounding development of a CT or combined cycle power

project is the future price of its fuel. For these power plants, natural gas purchases can make up
60 percent or more of the life-cycle cost of the plant. The events of the winters of 1995/96 and
1996/97 did little to quell concerns of project developers in this area, when regional gas prices
departed dramatically from their historic norms.

Unpredictable Differentials

Owing to the vagaries of weather and the difficulties of managing gas storage, most power
project developers agree that natural gas prices are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, these and
other industry participants were initially caught off guard in the winter of 1995/96 when most
east-west gas price “basis,” or location, differentials increased by a factor of 10 from previous
winters. One year later, traditional east-west basis differentials reversed directions (e.g.,
Wyoming prices shifted from $0.83/mmBtu less than Henry Hub to $0.83 greater than Henry
Hub, see Table 41-1). These significant breaks from historical trends have had significant
financial and strategic implications for a range of players across the industry, including power
producers. The events also raise a number of questions concerning the structure of the U.S. gas
market and the degree of regionalization that exists in the market.

A joint EPRI/GRI report published early last year (EPRI TR-109001) addressed the problems
that appeared in the natural gas market during the two recent winters and discussed the
implications for power producers. As concluded from statistical analysis of multiple pricing
points in this study, recent events demonstrate that complete price convergence does not yet exist
in the U.S. natural gas market. A close examination of gas flow patterns shows limited
movement of gas from western supply basins to the eastern market area, and shows that gas
seldom flows from east to west. The net result is that in periods of a tight supply and demand
balance, the U.S. market is split, or bifurcated, into two main regions: (1) the western market
area, and (2) the midwest and eastern market area. The Texas state line is the approximate
demarcation point between the two regions.

While both supply and demand factors contributed to events during the winter of 1995/96, the
most significant factor was the fundamental change in gas supply trends that had been occurring
over the prior two years. These changes included the end of the “gas bubble,” a decline in the
rate of increase in Canadian gas exports to the U.S., and cessation of tax-driven drilling (i.e., the
Section 29 tax credit) for unconventional gas supplies. The combination of these events over a
short time pushed the gas market from excess supply to tight supply—a condition that has not
existed since the birth of the spot market for gas in the mid-1980s.

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Table 41-1
*
Changing Basis Differential

1995-97 2/12/96 1/6/97

Henry Hub Price: $2.25 $2.32 $3.07

Differential*:

Alberta -$1.21 -$4.28 -$2.03

Wyoming -$0.83 -$4.11 $0.83

New Mexico -$0.60 -$4.11 $0.72

West Texas -$0.28 -$3.16 $0.26

Oklahoma -$0.27 -$2.37 $0.10

Chicago $0.23 $1.38 $0.68

New York $0.59 $2.58 $0.93

Atlanta $0.47 $0.80 $0.81

*Average weekly local price minus Henry Hub price, $/mmBtu (Natural Gas Week and BTU Weekly)

Differential Outlook

Most industry participants interviewed for the EPRI report believe that given the same market
conditions, the widening of east-west basis differentials would likely occur again. However,
most predicted smaller basis differentials than those observed during the winter of 1995/96,
reasoning that the industry is now more experienced and better prepared to adapt to these
conditions.

Supply conditions for the U.S. gas market could dramatically change from 1999 to 2001, the
report predicts, as a result of multiple projects in two major arenas: (1) the proposed significant
expansion of Canadian pipeline capacity to Midwest and northeast U.S. markets, and (2) the
development of new gas supplies in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. As these projects go
forward, they will change the local supply/demand balance as well as the differentials in
nonuniform ways. For instance, while pipeline capacity from Canada to the upper Midwest is
increasing, the near term outlook is that Alberta gas supply will not increase fast enough to fill
this pipe. This depresses transportation tariffs (as they are pushed down toward variable costs),
but leads to closer tracking of commodity price differentials. In the Northeast, new supplies and
pipeline capacity will reduce the region’s reliance on Gulf of Mexico gas and differentials to the
Henry Hub, especially between Boston and New York pricing points. These changes can lower
Chicago and Northeast prices and differentials, leading to changes in West Texas differentials,
and so on.

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In the Gulf, deepwater production is growing at over 0.5 Bcfd per year, exceeding the effects of
cumulative, small declines (about 0.25 Bcfd) in the much larger share of Gulf production that
comes from shallower waters (approx. 12 Bcfd). While both shallow and deep trends will define
the overall Gulf supply outlook, sustained additions could depress prices at the Henry Hub and
narrow differentials elsewhere.

Coping Strategies

For power producers, appropriate strategies to cope with widening basis differentials vary case
by case. Demands for gas to fuel power projects are a major new market opportunity for the gas
industry, but there is substantial risk to pipeline project developers that high differentials
necessary to attract pipeline investment may not be sustained. Sharing this risk with power
producers is a subject of intense negotiation, since these producers now prefer short-term
contracts. For power producers, gas price risk is inseparable from electricity price risk, since the
spark spread (i.e., the difference between gas prices and prevailing electricity prices) truly
defines plant profitability.

Diversifying gas supplies and entering into risk-sharing arrangements with gas suppliers may
make sense, but power producers might also benefit from the status quo. If gas-fired units set
marginal power prices, then increases in gas prices may be accompanied by increases in power
prices to maintain the spark spread. If this does not occur, power producers will be motivated to
index gas commodity costs to power prices. Power producers may hold a surprising amount of
leverage, since the volatility of power prices can provide a more-than-adequate margin of
revenues with which to fund gas price risk sharing arrangements. The essential task is to
construct accurate customized analyses of gas supply and power market conditions and
uncertainties.

Price Volatility, Convergence, and Chaos

Two forthcoming reports provide insights and cautions for constructing risk-sharing
arrangements. One report (EPRI TR-111564) addresses the two major impacts of the
restructuring of the North American energy markets—price volatility and emerging patterns of
convergence of wholesale electric and fuel prices. This report introduces the vocabulary and
techniques of price analysis and illustrates recent price behaviors, price spikes, and convergence
in the northeast, Midwest, Texas, and California. Spanning electricity, natural gas, and coal, it
uses simple graphical techniques to portray both price and spread volatility. The second report
(EPRI TR-111506, cosponsored by GRI) looks 10 years ahead at how burgeoning development
of independent, gas-fired combined cycle plants can affect power markets, new and existing
plant profitability, and fuel infrastructure requirements. Examining the New England and Texas
regions in detail, the report explains the possibility that merchant plant developer overbuilding
may lead to a cycle of price collapse and recovery. Net gas requirements vary from region to
region (see Table 41-2). For more information on EPRI fuel and power supply assessments,
contact Jeremy Platt, jplatt@epri.com.

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Table 41-2
Different Requirements for New Gas Supplies

(Bcf/yr) New England (NEPOOL) Texas (ERCOT)

Current Post-2000 Current Post-2000

New Gas CC Added 11,000 MW 14,000 MW

Existing Steam Gen. 48 32 826 357

Existing CC 229 200

New CC: +306

-Displace Resid +321

-Displace Coal +

-Displace Power Imports +

Load Growth + +154

Net Growth +276 ~0

“+” denotes potential for future growth

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ASSESSING THE COMPETITIVE GENERATION
MARKET

The current set of circumstances in California provides a unique opportunity to examine the
process of deregulation in the electric power industry and its impacts on the players. As a result
of the large volume of data provided by the California Power Exchange (PX) and the California
Independent System Operator (ISO), easily accessible through the Internet, we can now assess
how the competitive market in California is impacting existing generating assets, as well as the
potential impacts on opportunities for repowering and adding new greenfield capacity.

A recently published EPRI report, Competitive Generation Market Study—California (TR-

111857), documents just such an examination. Its goal is to improve understanding of how
deregulation and the consequent market forces impact generation technology selection for new
capacity additions and repowering of existing units in California. While the study’s results are
themselves interesting to participants in the California market, the larger implications of the
work are potentially even more useful. For the report lays out a framework, easily applied to any
state undergoing deregulation, for analyzing the interplay between the market and generation
technology, establishing the value of an individual generating unit, and managing a portfolio of
assets.

Background

Throughout the United States, non-rate-based generation currently makes up most of the market
for generating resource additions. At the same time, a large amount of existing regulated
generating assets are currently for sale or will be offered for sale soon. A large percentage of
these new and existing assets will be a key part of the competitive electricity marketplace.

Among those investing in these new and existing generating assets, a variety of factors will
determine who will be a winner and who will be a loser. These factors include the nature of the
transmission and distribution infrastructure, shifting areas of electrical load growth, changing
environmental requirements, and the local rules of competition.

The latter of these factors is an important one. Each state or region that is moving toward
creating a competitive open retail market for electricity is using a unique approach. There is
much variability in the way each state addresses issues such as stranded assets, market power,
generation and fuel portfolio requirements, transmission system operation, and electricity
pricing. Some energy companies are responding by divesting themselves of generating assets in
their home state while acquiring generating assets in other states. Clearly, the market structure

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that emerges in each state or region strongly influences existing generating asset value and
technology choice for new generation projects.

With the rapid pace of change and significant uncertainty, generation resource development,
acquisition, divestiture, and asset management must all be based on strategic plans that are
responsive and flexible. Options must be identified and evaluated well in advance of when action
is required.

Framework Applied to California

EPRI’s recent report, now available to funders of the New CT Design Target, performs a
detailed, region-specific evaluation of how the competitive market will impact the dispatch of
existing generation assets, the economics of repowering, and selection of generation technology
for new generating units.

Since the rules of competitive engagement are evolving differently in each state, a specific state
was selected as the basis for this initial study. In 1998, only California had an operating
competitive market that allowed all customer classes—residential, commercial, agricultural, and
industrial—to select an electricity provider. California was also selected since the rules for
competition are established there, fewer assumptions were necessary to model the marketplace,
and data were available to help in assessing current and future impacts. The study analyzed
initial market trends based on data available from the California ISO and PX, and used a
competitive market model to predict potential impacts in 2002 and 2007.

The California energy market is a large one, with an estimated 61,000 MW of total dependable
capacity and a maximum, non-simultaneous peak load of 44,650 MW. On March 31, 1998,
California began initial operation of its competitive market. For the first four years of market
operation, all California investor-owned utilities must buy and sell all of their electricity through
the California PX. One PX function is to validate bids and construct a supply/demand curve to
establish the market clearing price (MCP). Other key market rules include a non-bypassable
competitive transition charge and a mandatory residential rate reduction of 10% with a rate
freeze until 2002.

Importance of New Technology

One key result of the study in California is that market-based pricing will put pressure on the
developers of new projects, particularly merchant plant projects, to be the innovators and
technology risk-takers of the future. The report predicts that developers capable of dealing with
technology risk will realize a competitive advantage and increase profitability.

The report examined conventional simple-cycle and combined cycle capacity additions, as well
as advanced new generation technologies. The latter include “G” class CTs and Cascaded
Humidified Advanced Turbine (CHAT) and Intercooled Aeroderivative (ICAD) cycles.

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For new intermediate and baseload generation, the latest technologies and cycles are needed to
cover total generation costs. For example, Figure 42-1 shows cost and MCP information for a
nominal 300 MW CHAT unit at a capital cost of $375/kW. For this new technology,
assumptions include a heat rate of 6800 Btu/kWh, variable O&M of $4.00/MWh, and fixed
O&M of $12.00/kW-year. Compared to a greenfield combined cycle plant, the CHAT has a
lower heat rate, lower capital costs, similar fixed O&M, and higher variable O&M costs (due to
its multiple compressor and multiple turbine expander design). The plot shows that the marginal
cost is less than the historical unconstrained MCP for capacity factors up to about 65%.
However, the total (fully loaded) cost in $/MWh exceeds the hourly weighted average MCP in
$/MWh at capacity factors less than 15%. Hence, according to this analysis, this technology
would be profitable in intermediate, and to a point, baseload service.

However, even this conclusion is subject to regional variability. The report shows that the CHAT
cycle may be economical in Northern California (estimated payback period of 7 years), but be
uneconomical in Southern California (10 year payback) due to higher average fuel costs.

Figure 42-1
This Nominal 300-MW CHAT Plant would be Profitable in Intermediate Service, and to
some Extent, in Baseload Service.

Peaking Power Profits?

A similar analysis shows that a new simple cycle CT cannot be profitable under any conditions.
The only capacity factor range in which marginal costs are lower than the MCP is about 10%-
25%. But in this range, total costs exceed the hourly weighted average MCP by at least $8/MWh.
Hence, this simple cycle CT, like other simple cycles examined in this analysis, is not profitable
in the California market.

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In fact, the study found that current market behavior in California does not provide a favorable
environment for new peak power generation. All the capacity addition options considered would
have a difficult time recovering the total cost of generation at capacity factors less than about
20%. The price behavior in this range is clearly being dominated by the existing underutilized
generating units.

Winners and Losers

The report also found that a large number of existing generating units are “at risk” of premature
retirement in California, including about 5800 MW of gas-fired steam plants. At risk units are
those that are projected to fail to cover their total costs. Generally, these units represent less
efficient technology or require significantly higher-than-average operation and maintenance. In
addition, these units, which represent over 25% of the cumulative gas-fired steam unit capacity
in California, are additionally at risk of being displaced by new entrants into the market.

Presently in California, excess capacity is holding down prices. If this situation remains
unchanged, the units on the list will likely remain at risk. Purchasers of California generating
assets whose portfolios include such units will need to develop strategies to deal with the
revenue consequences associated with owning these units. Site repowering, combined cycle
repowering, or retirement are among the options available. The modeling showed that in some
cases repowering may be an attractive option, but it is not the answer in every case.

Apply the Framework in Your Region

The framework applied in this study to the California market can be applied to other regions as
well. The greatest challenge is inputting specific market rules for the state or region. In many
states, since the rules for competition are evolving, assumptions must be made regarding how
deregulation will be implemented based on proposals being discussed by the legislative and
regulatory bodies. The results of the analysis can then be checked for sensitivity to these
assumptions by modifying the assumptions within a reasonable bound and reviewing the impact.
The analyses can be used to examine a wide variety of concerns, including the following:
· Establishing a methodology for setting the selling price of power/capacity for individual units
· Determining the influence on market price of new market entrants and changes in
environmental requirements
· Determining the market value of generating assets for sale or to be sold

EPRI has tools and resources needed to conduct such assessments.

Such an assessment can provide a region-specific valuation of individual unit and portfolio
competitiveness, and can be used to aid evaluation of unit and portfolio bidding strategies.
Further, the analysis can help identify and rank options to increase unit and portfolio
profitability. Sensitivity analyses are also possible—to evaluate the potential impact of new
market players or changes in the market. Conceptual level designs for repowering and new
generation can even result from assessments like these.

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Editor’s Note: This work is a follow-on activity to the strategic assessment of repowering
completed in 1997 (see EPRI interim report TR-106908). For more information, contact
EPRI’s Dale Gray, dgray@epri.com.

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CT AND COMBINED CYCLE MARKET STUDY

Recent deregulation of electricity supply in many regions of the United States, along with a
plentiful supply of low cost natural gas, has led to overwhelming interest in combined-cycle
units for use in merchant plants. This new market activity, combined with very high peak power
prices in the midwestern United States during the summer of 1998, has led to a significant
increase in the price tags during the past year. One power producer reported in January that
turbine prices had increased by 10-15 percent from a year ago, while a second producer reported
a jump in prices from about $25 million to $32 million over an eight week period. These
producers also indicated that the lead-time for new turbines has increased from about one year to
about two years, and 5-10% nonrefundable deposits are now common in the industry (ref 1).

At the same time, many regions of the world, including Russia and parts of Asia, began
experiencing severe financial difficulties that led to the delay or cancellation of many power
projects. Thus, the demand for many 50 Hz CTs was declining while the demand for 60 Hz
CTs was increasing. How will CT vendors respond to this demand imbalance?

Perhaps more importantly, will the prices of domestic 60 Hz CTs continue to rise, stabilize, or
decline? The answer to this question impacts the development of new generation, which will be
mostly merchant plants, and impacts understanding of the vulnerability of existing generation
stock to competition. EPRI has recently completed a study of CT and combined-cycle markets
that provides insight into these and other worldwide and U.S. CT market uncertainties.

Study Objectives

Work completed during 1998 focused on monitoring the worldwide CT and combined-cycle
market demand and dynamics, as well as refining a previously developed CT price projection
model to include differences in the 50 and 60 Hz markets. Building on previous work in 1996
and 1997, following are the specific objectives of the 1998 study:
· Continue monitoring CT and combined-cycle market dynamics
· Refine price projection model
· Update price projections
· Extend 10-year price projection horizon to 2007

Although predicting the future is both uncertain and risky, the results of this study are deemed
reliable, within the limits of the assumptions made. Since no model can hope to capture every
future event that could have a significant impact on the results, the project team developed three

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scenarios that encompass future events. These scenarios allow understanding of potential effects
of these events. In addition to providing specific effects of these events, these scenarios together
provide a picture of the wide range of possible future prices.

CT Demand and Prices

During 1998, the extent and timing of the “displacement market” had an even greater impact
than originally anticipated. Displacement refers to construction of gas-fired advanced combined-
cycle plants that displace existing capacity due to the new plant’s relatively low capital cost and
superior performance.

Incorporation of retirements and U.S. displacement has led to a significant increase in demand
for new CTs, especially in North America. These new demands comprise nearly 45% of the total
new CT orders in North America over the next several years (see Figure 43-1). This demand
results in CT price increases of slightly over 20% from 1998 to 2007, compared to a 1997 base
price (see Figure 43-2). Expected values for North American CT prices remain stable over this
period and do not return to 1997 levels.

Figure 43-1
Projected North American CT orders.

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 CT and Combined Cycle Market Study

Figure 43-2
Projected North American CT Relative Market Prices.

Financial difficulties in Asia and other regions of the world have led to short-term reduced
capacity demands, while the bustling North American market has tended to offset these
reductions. These troubled regions are expected to recover at about the same time that the North
American displacement market begins to diminish. Thus, the longer term worldwide demand for
CTs is expected to stabilize at just under the existing supply capacity of about 38 GW/year. A
future bellwether to be watched is any increase in production capacity by any vendor. As a result
of this sluggish demand outside the United States, expected values for worldwide CT price
increases are 5% in 1999, 11% in 2002, and 17% in 2001, compared to a 1997 base price.
Coincident with decreasing U.S. displacement demand, expected worldwide prices converge to
North American values from 2002 to 2007.

Impact on Combined-Cycle Prices

The 1998 study predicted slight reductions in expected prices for steam turbines and boilers over
the next ten years. However, increasing CT prices offset these lower steam turbine and boiler
prices, resulting in net combined-cycle expected price increases of 5-7% over the short term in
North America. Over the long-term, these combined-cycle prices are expected to stabilize at
about a 4% increase, compared to 1997 levels.

Areas of Uncertainty

Continued monitoring of financially troubled regions of the world is important. If CT demand

increases in these areas sooner than expected, CT prices could rise faster than expected values.
Conversely, if these financial difficulties are resolved more slowly than expected or if these
difficulties expand to other countries, worldwide CT demand could become level or decline
slightly.

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The 1998 study did not consider displacement effects outside of the United States. As other
countries move toward deregulation, the displacement market may begin to contribute more
significantly to the worldwide demand for new CTs, thus leading to increased upward pressure
on prices.

Not unexpectedly, the competitiveness of a CT or combined-cycle plant is strongly related to the

price of natural gas, which is presently very low. Hence, a rise in gas prices would slow the
domestic displacement market.

The large uncertainty of these events is reflected in Figure 43-2. For example, in 2002, the
expected value for the price increase is 22%. However, the 10th percentile value is only 6%, and
the 90th percentile value is 37%. To obtain a full copy of this study, contact Renee Palmonari,
rpalmona@epri.com. For more information, contact George Booras, gbooras@epri.com.

Reference

1. “Turbine shortage causing increased prices, lead times,” Generation Week, Megawatt Daily,
January 20, 1999.

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MITIGATING RISK IN NEW CT/CC PROJECT
DEVELOPMENT

Power plant development projects no longer pose only technical challenges with engineering
solutions. Deregulation of the electric power industry has added business complexities with
which power plant developers may have little experience, but that must be addressed in the
earliest stages of project development.

For example, developers of new projects have traditionally focused on minimizing capital costs.
Introduction of “F” class combustion turbine (CT) technology seemed to be the ideal product to
meet this need, with lower projected capital costs and higher efficiency than previous models.
However, a major failure of a CT incorporating this new technology can easily cost a CT owner
$10 million—or more when accounting for loss of business costs. As a result, plant developers
are increasingly seeking to estimate costs over the entire life cycle of the plant.

Furthermore, the demise of the long term power purchase agreement has produced a growing
awareness that the structure of a plant project’s financial arrangement can have a major impact
on project profitability and the ability to secure adequate financing. Developers are becoming
more aware that project development is a complex process involving interactions between site
conditions, environmental limits, economic and market forces, and financial strategies, as well
as technology selection, process design, and plant design.

Resolving Project Trade-Offs

In today’s competitive power generation market, two major market forces are colliding head-on.
Project developers want to minimize power production costs in order to obtain the most
favorable margins, while financing organizations want to minimize financial risk.

From the project developer’s perspective, taking advantage of the latest developments in
generation technology is a means of minimizing power production costs. The developer must
pose the following question: Should I build a plant using new CT models with limited
commercial operating experience that can significantly reduce my costs, or should I use CT
models with an extensive experience base that offer no competitive cost advantages?

By contrast, financing organizations are seeking to avoid the uncertainties inherent in new
technology, preferring to finance projects that use CTs and other equipment with a broad
experience base. Financiers prefer the latter projects because operating and maintenance (O&M)
costs can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of certainty.

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Hence, the project developer must find a middle ground. The project must yield a plant that can
operate competitively. At the same time, to secure financing, the developer must be able do
adequately project lifecycle costs.

Cost Containment Options

To help developers meet these needs, a number of options are becoming available, including
various types of insurance to cover some of the financial risk (e.g., extended warranties). Special
types of O&M contracts are also appearing in the marketplace. These contracts can be crafted to
simply guarantee parts cost. Alternatively, under umbrella agreements, the project owner
supplies fuel and sells electricity, while a contractor covers all other costs under a controlled cost
arrangement.

Evaluating these options to determine the optimal arrangement for a particular project is not an
easy task. For new technologies, the difficulty of projecting O&M costs as well as projecting
forced outages that incur business interruption costs further complicates this process.

Looking at these challenges in the larger picture of project financial analysis, estimating O&M
costs and potential lost revenues due to forced outages is an essential part of project
development. In project financial analyses, the cost and revenue aspects of the project are
integrated to determine whether the project meets corporate financial objectives. The input to the
financial model must provide an accurate representation of the expected costs over the life of the
project. The financial model itself must be able to reflect the interplay of design, operation,
maintenance, equity interests, and cash flow.

Risk Assessment Framework

To help project developers evaluate options for mitigating risk on projects that employ newly
commercial or emerging technologies, EPRI is developing a framework for quantifying the
lifecycle costs of a CT project. This framework will enable evaluation of various risk mitigation
approaches, including OEM service agreements and business interruption insurance. The
approach in developing the framework is to subdivide maintenance costs into three major
categories:
· Operating and normal wear and tear costs
· Forced outage costs, including loss of revenue
· Expenses of cost-containment options

For operating and normal wear and tear, the project team is estimating all costs associated with
normal non-fuel operation and maintenance to serve as baseline values. The team is also
developing a framework for identifying major cost elements in sufficient detail to support typical
project development needs. Users can accept a series of default values as inputs or enter custom
values.

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The product incorporates manufacturers’ recommended inspection intervals and appropriate

algorithms for calculating equivalent hours, factored operating hours, factored starts, and
baseload starts. Default values are being provided for major and minor overhaul costs. Using this
information, the product calculates operating costs, calculates maintenance costs, develops cash
flow projection for use in a pro forma, and provides a present value analysis.

Risk Mapping

Although operating and normal wear and tear costs are significant and important in evaluating
the project pro forma, forced outages present the greatest financial risk to the project, particularly
for new technology. Past experience indicates that during a period of up to ten years after the
introduction of new technology, availability and reliability gradually increases as the technology
matures (see Figure 44-1). During this period, owners of the new technology have an opportunity
to enjoy a major competitive advantage over those who own currently installed capacity. If
project developers can make informed decisions on the potential costs of using the new
technology, they can capitalize on the competitive advantage and manage the risk.

Figure 44-1
Typical CT Availability as a Function of Time after Introduction.

To collect and evaluate early information on the performance of new technology, risk mapping is
relevant to the project developer, rather than classical detailed failure mode analysis or fault tree
analysis (see Figure 44-2). The reason for this is that the project developer, in making a decision
on new technology, is interested in estimating the probability of a failure that causes an outage,
and estimating the total cost of the outage, including parts, labor, and lost revenue.

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Figure 44-2
Sample Risk Map Representing Total Cost of Major CT Events.

Therefore, the project team is incorporating forced outage cost provisions into the product. Using
the Operational Reliability Application Program (ORAP) database containing over 1400 CTs and
other sources for units employing “F” technology CTs, outage events are being classified into
general types (e.g., compressor failure, combustion failure, or rotor system failure) as appropriate
based on the level of detail available and its statistical significance. Statistical measures are being
assigned to quantify the likelihood of occurrence of scenarios. For each scenario, a cost of
repair/refurbishment, including parts and labor along with an outage duration, is being assigned.
Then the product uses a Monte Carlo simulation method to permit a statistical analysis of the
potential costs and level of confidence in the resulting cost estimates. For each scenario, users
can modify basic input to the analysis, such as likelihood of an event and cost and duration of an
event. Results are presented in the form of a total estimated O&M cost with an estimated level of
confidence.

Comparing Costs and Options

A software product now under development will facilitate evaluation of the most recent data
available on the advanced class CTs. Developers will be able to use this Excel 97 spreadsheet
tool in the project development phase to estimate planned and forced outage maintenance costs.
The software also includes provisions for comparing these maintenance costs to the costs of
various cost-containment options, such as insurance and O&M contracts. Using a present value
analysis, developers can compare the lifecycle price of the cost-containment options with the
lifecycle cost of assuming the liability in-house as a part of anticipated operating costs. Since this
is a statistical analysis, developers can examine these options at various levels of confidence.

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For example, assume that the analysis estimated life cycle total O&M costs at $30 million
(present value) with 90% confidence. If the total cost of a comprehensive O&M contract that
includes business interruption insurance is $35 million (present value), then this contract is
overpriced in this scenario. However, if the project developer’s (or financier’s) tolerance of risk
is low and requires a 99% level of confidence, O&M costs rise. Assuming that the analysis
estimates total life cycle O&M costs of $40 million at 99% confidence, the O&M contract
becomes a bargain at $35 million. Of course, the software product enables project developers to
look at relevant subsets of O&M costs and compare them to available insurance products.

Since forced outage data is a key input, the product is structured so that information can easily be
updated to incorporate the most current information. This part of the product also serves as a
framework for using expert judgment to project how new pre-commercial or newly commercial
product innovations may impact O&M costs.

Project Status

A preliminary spreadsheet containing major project cost components is now available. EPRI is
assembling a project advisory group to help validate the risk assessment framework, which will
be available later this year for target funder evaluation. In late 1999, EPRI will also issue a report
that discusses the general approach to project risk used in the framework. If interested in
participating on the project committee, or to order the preliminary spreadsheet, contact John
Scheibel, jscheibe@epri.com.

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SOAPP-CT.25

With the transition to a market base electric supply system with customer choice at all levels,
distributed generation is coming into its own as a viable supply alternative. However, the
technical and commercial evaluation of DG options can be prohibitively expensive for the small
project developer and user. The limited budget for project development in these small projects
typically precludes use of a traditional A&E firm.

Jointly developed by GRI and EPRI, the SOAPP-CT.25 WorkStation provides a solution to
this problem by integrating technical and financial analysis tasks into an automated product.
The software effectively builds a significant amount of pre-engineering into the proposal stage
of a project, enabling developers to stay within tight budgets. Specifically designed for CTs
from 500 kW to 25 MW, SOAPP-CT.25 addresses the complex interaction of site conditions,
economic and market factors, and financial strategies with equipment, process, and plant design.

SOAPP-CT WorkStation Version 1.8

The fifth major release of the SOAPP-CT WorkStation, Version 1.8, will be released this
summer. In addition to updated cost and performance data for all modeled units and equipment,
the new release handles six new CT models. Other enhancements increase user flexibility, add
new options, and improve modeling.

To order SOAPP, call 1-888-4SEPRIL or e-mail info@sepril.com.

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