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stream from the coupons of each bond. The maturity of a ladder portfolio can

be defined as the average maturity:

1

n

T = Ti (5.22)

n

i=1

The income is higher for higher values of T ; however, so is the interest rate risk.

Bond immunization is used in cases such as a predetermined future cash obli-

gation. A simple solution would be to purchase a zero-coupon bond with the

required maturity (and desirable/acceptable yield). However, such a bond may

not always be available in the market, so a portfolio of bonds with varying

maturities must be used instead. Such a portfolio is subject to the interest rate

and reinvestment risks. One way to mitigate these risks is to build a portfolio

whose duration matches the maturity of the future cash obligation (thereby

“immunizing” the bond portfolio against parallel shifts in the yield curve).

Consider a portfolio of bonds with 2 different maturities T1 , T2 and the cor-

responding durations D1 , D2 (where “duration” means modified duration).

Let: the dollar amounts invested in these bonds be P1 , P2 ; the total amount to

be invested be P; the desired duration of the portfolio be D (which is related

to the maturity T∗ of the future cash obligation—see below); and the constant

yield (which is assumed to be the same for all bonds—see below) be Y . Then P

is fixed using Y and the amount of the future obligation F:

compounding period (e.g., 1 year).8 Then we have:

P1 + P2 = P (5.24)

P1 D1 + P2 D2 = P D (5.25)

where

D = T∗ /(1 + Y δ) (5.26)

8 Forthe sake of simplicity, in Eq. (5.23) the number n = T∗ /δ of compounding periods is assumed to

be a whole number. Extension to non-integer T∗ /δ is straightforward.

106 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

P1 + P2 + P3 = P (5.27)

P1 D1 + P2 D2 + P3 D3 = P D (5.28)

P1 C1 + P2 C2 + P3 C3 = P C (5.29)

In practice, the yield curve changes over time, which (among other things)

requires that the portfolio be periodically rebalanced. This introduces nontriv-

ial transaction costs, which must also be accounted for. Furthermore, the yields

are not the same for all bonds in the portfolio, which introduces additional

complexity into the problem.9

This is a zero-cost combination of a long barbell portfolio (with short T1 and

long T3 maturities) and a short bullet portfolio (with a medium maturity T2 ,

where T1 < T2 < T3 ). Let: the dollar amounts invested in the 3 bonds be

P1 , P2 , P3 ; and the corresponding modified durations be D1 , D2 , D3 . Then

zero cost (i.e., dollar-neutrality) and the dollar-duration-neutrality (the latter

protects the portfolio from parallel shifts in the yield curve) imply that

P1 + P3 = P2 (5.31)

P1 D1 + P3 D3 = P2 D2 (5.32)

This fixes P1 , P3 via P2 . While the portfolio is immune to parallel shifts in the

yield curve, it is not immune to changes in the slope or the curvature of the

yield curve.10

9 For some literature on bond immunization, including more sophisticated optimization techniques, see,

e.g., Albrecht (1985), Alexander and Resnick (1985), Bierwag (1979), Bodie et al. (1996), Boyle (1978),

Christensen and Fabozzi (1985), De La Peña et al. (2017), Fisher and Weil (1971), Fong and Vasicek (1983,

1984), Hürlimann (2002, 2012), Iturricastillo and De La Peña (2010), Khang (1983), Kocherlakota et al.

(1988, 1990), Montrucchio and Peccati (1991), Nawalkha and Chambers (1996), Reddington (1952),

Reitano (1996), Shiu (1987, 1988), Zheng et al. (2003).

10 For

some literature on various butterfly bond strategies, see, e.g., Bedendo et al. (2007), Brooks and

Moskowitz (2017), Christiansen and Lund (2005), Fontaine and Nolin (2017), Gibson and Pritsker

(2000), Grieves (1999), Heidari and Wu (2003), Martellini et al. (2002).

5 Fixed Income 107

This is a variation of the standard butterfly. In the above notations for the

dollar-duration-neutral butterfly, we have

1

P1 D1 = P3 D3 = P2 D2 (5.33)

2

So, the fifty-fifty butterfly is still dollar-duration-neutral, but it is no longer

dollar-neutral (i.e., it is not a zero-cost strategy). Instead, dollar durations of

the wings are the same (hence the term “fifty-fifty”). As a result, the strategy is

(approximately) neutral to small steepening and flattening of the yield curve, to

wit, if the interest rate spread change between the body and the short-maturity

wing is equal to the spread change between the long-maturity wing and the

body. That is why this strategy is a.k.a. “neutral curve butterfly” (whose cost

is non-dollar-neutrality).

Empirically, short-term interest rates are sizably more volatile than long-term

interest rates.11 Therefore, the interest rate spread change between the body

and the short-maturity wing (of the butterfly—see above) can be expected to

be greater by some factor—call it β—than the spread change between the long-

maturity wing and the body (so, typically β > 1). This factor can be obtained

from historical data via, e.g., running a regression of the spread change between

the body and the short-maturity wing over the spread change between the long-

maturity wing and the body. Then, instead of Eq. (5.33), we have the following

dollar-duration-neutrality and “curve-neutrality” conditions:

P1 D1 + P3 D3 = P2 D2 (5.34)

P1 D1 = β P3 D3 (5.35)

11 See, e.g., Edwards and Susmel (2003), Joslin and Konchitchki (2018), Mankiw and Summers (1984),

Shiller (1979), Sill (1996), Turnovsky (1989).

108 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

β in Eq. (5.35) via a regression based on historical data, this coefficient is based

on the 3 bond maturities:

T2 − T1

β= (5.36)

T3 − T2

As in stocks, empirical evidence suggests that lower-risk bonds tend to outper-

form higher-risk bonds on the risk-adjusted basis (“low-risk anomaly”).12 One

can define “riskiness” of a bond using different metrics, e.g., bond credit rating

and maturity. For instance, a long portfolio can be built (see, e.g., Houweling

and van Vundert 2017) by taking Investment Grade bonds with credit ratings

AAA through A−, and then taking the bottom decile by maturity. Similarly,

one can take High Yield bonds with credit ratings BB+ through B−, and then

take the bottom decile by maturity.

“Value” for bonds (see, e.g., Correia et al. 2012; Houweling and van Vundert

2017; L’Hoir and Boulhabel 2010) is trickier to define than for stocks. One

way is to compare the observed credit spread13 to a theoretical prediction

therefor. One way to estimate the latter is, e.g., via a linear cross-sectional

(across N bonds labeled by i = 1, . . . , N ) regression (Houweling and van

Vundert 2017):

K

Si = βr Iir + γ Ti + i (5.37)

r=1

Si∗ = Si − i (5.38)

Here: Si is the credit spread; Iir is a dummy variable (Iir = 1 if the bond

labeled by i has credit rating r ; otherwise, Iir = 0) for bond credit rating r

12 For

some literature, see, e.g., De Carvalho et al. (2014), Derwall et al. (2009), Frazzini and Pedersen

(2014), Houweling and van Vundert (2017), Ilmanen (2011), Ilmanen et al. (2004), Kozhemiakin (2007),

Ng and Phelps (2015).

13 Credit spread is the difference between the bond yield and the risk-free rate.

5 Fixed Income 109

(which labels K credit ratings present among the N bonds, which can be one

of the 21 credit ratings)14 ; Ti are bond maturities; βr , γ are the regression

coefficients; i are the regression residuals; and Si∗ is the fitted (theoretical)

value of the credit spread. The N × K matrix Iir has no columns with all zeros

(so K can be less than 21). Note that by definition, since each bond has one

and only one credit rating, we have

K

Iir = 1 (5.39)

r=1

coefficient for the intercept). Next, value is defined as Vi = ln(Si /Si∗ ) or

Vi = i /Si∗ = Si /Si∗ − 1, and the bonds in the top decile by Vi are selected

for the portfolio.

Carry is defined as the return from the appreciation of the bond value as the

bond rolls down the yield curve (see, e.g., Beekhuizen et al. 2016; Koijen et

al. 2018)15 :

C(t, t + t, T ) = (5.40)

P(t, T )

if we assume that the entire term structure of the interest rates stays constant,

i.e., the yield R(t, T ) = f (T − t) is a function of only T − t (i.e., time to

maturity). Then, at time t + t the yield is R(t + t, T ) = R(t, T − t).

So, we have16

C(t, t + t, T ) = =

P(t, T )| R(t,T )

= R(t, T ) t + Croll (t, t + t, T ) (5.41)

14These credit ratings are AAA, AA+, AA, AA−, A+, A, A−, BBB+, BBB, BBB−, BB+, BB, BB−, B+, B,

B−, CCC+, CCC, CCC−, CC, C.

15 Here,

for the sake of simplicity, we consider zero-coupon bonds. The end-result below is also valid for

coupon bonds.

16 For financed portfolios,R(t, T ) in the second line of Eq. (5.41) is replaced by R(t, T ) − rf , where rf is

the risk-free rate. However, this overall shift does not affect the actual holdings in the carry strategy below.

110 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

where (taking into account the definition of the modified duration, Eq. (5.12))

Croll (t, t + t, T ) = ≈

P(t, T )| R(t,T )

≈ −ModD(t, T ) [R(t, T − t) − R(t, T )] (5.42)

So, if the term structure of the interest rates is constant, then carry C(t, t +

t, T ) receives two contributions: (i) R(t, T ) t from the bond yield; and

(ii) Croll (t, t + t, T ) from the bond rolling down the yield curve. A zero-

cost strategy can be built, e.g., by buying bonds in the top decile by carry and

selling bonds in the bottom decile.

The objective of this strategy is to capture the “roll-down” component

Croll (t, t + t, T ) of bond yields. These returns are maximized in the steep-

est segments of the yield curve. Therefore, the trader can, e.g., buy long- or

medium-term bonds from such segments and hold them while they are “rolling

down the curve”.17 The bonds must be sold as they approach maturity and the

proceeds can be used to buy new long/medium-term bonds from the steepest

segment of the yield curve at that time.

and Steepeners)

This strategy consists of buying or selling the yield curve spread.18 The yield

curve spread is defined as the difference between the yields of two bonds of

the same issuer with different maturities. If the interest rates are expected to

fall, the yield curve is expected to steepen. If the interest rates are expected to

rise, the yield curve is expected to flatten. The yield curve spread strategy can

be summarized via the following rule:

17 Forsome literature on the “rolling down the yield curve” strategies, see, e.g., Ang et al. (1998), Bieri

and Chincarini (2004, 2005), Dyl and Joehnk (1981), Grieves et al. (1999), Grieves and Marcus (1992),

Osteryoung et al. (1981), Pantalone and Platt (1984), Pelaez (1997).

18 For some literature on yield curve spread strategies, the yield curve dynamics and related topics, see, e.g.,

Bernadell et al. (2005), Boyd and Mercer (2010), Chua et al. (2006), Diebold and Li (2002), Diebold et

al. (2006), Dolan (1999), Evans and Marshall (2007), Füss and Nikitina (2011), Jones (1991), Kalev and

Inder (2006), Krishnamurthy (2002), Shiller and Modigliani (1979).

5 Fixed Income 111

Flattener: Short spread if interest rates are expected to rise

Rule = (5.43)

Steepener: Buy spread if interest rates are expected to fall

Shorting the spread amounts to selling shorter-maturity bonds (a.k.a. the front

leg) and buying longer-maturity bonds (a.k.a. the back leg). Buying the spread

is the opposite trade: buying the front leg and selling the back leg. If the

yield curve has parallel shifts, this strategy can generate losses. Matching dollar

durations of the front and back legs immunizes the portfolio to small parallel

shifts in the yield curve.

A credit default swap (CDS) is insurance against default on a bond.19 The

CDS price, known as the CDS spread, is a periodic (e.g., annual) premium

per dollar of the insured debt. The CDS essentially makes the bond a risk-free

instrument. Therefore, the CDS spread should equal the bond yield spread,

i.e., the spread between the bond yield and the risk-free rate. The difference

between the CDS spread and the bond spread is known as the CDS basis:

Negative basis indicates that the bond spread is too high relative to the CDS

spread, i.e., the bond is relatively cheap. The CDS arbitrage trade then amounts

to buying the bond and insuring it with the CDS20 thereby generating a risk-

free profit.21

This dollar-neutral strategy consists of a long (short) position in an interest

rate swap (see Sect. 5.1) and a short (long) position in a Treasury bond (with

the constant yield YT reasur y ) with the same maturity as the swap. A long

(short) swap involves receiving (making) fixed rate rswap coupon payments in

19 For some literature on CDS basis arbitrage and related topics, see, e.g., Bai and Collin-Dufresne (2013),

Choudhry (2004, 2006, 2007), De Wit (2006), Fontana (2010), Fontana and Scheicher (2016), Kim et

al. (2016, 2017), Nashikkar et al. (2011), Rajan et al. (2007), Wang (2014), Zhu (2006).

20 Note that the CDS is equivalent to a synthetic short bond position.

21 Inthe case of positive basis, theoretically one would enter into the opposite trade, i.e., selling the bond

and selling the CDS. However, in practice this would usually imply that the trader already owns the bond

and the CDS, i.e., this would amount to unwinding an existing position.

112 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

exchange for making (receiving) variable rate coupon payments at LIBOR (the

London Interbank Offer Rate) L(t). The short (long) position in the Treasury

bond generates (is financed at) the “repo rate” (the discount rate at which the

central bank repurchases government securities from commercial banks) r (t)

in a margin account. The per-dollar-invested rate C(t) at which this strategy

generates P&L is given by

C1 = rswap − YT reasur y (5.46)

C2 (t) = L(t) − r (t) (5.47)

where the plus (minus) sign corresponds to the long (short) swap strategy.

The long (short) swap strategy is profitable if LIBOR falls (rises). So, this is a

LIBOR bet.22

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6

Indexes

6.1 Generalities

An index is a diversified portfolio of assets combined with some weights. The

underlying assets are often stocks, e.g., in indexes such as DJIA, S&P 500,

Russell 3000, etc. DJIA weights are based on price, while S&P 500 and Russell

3000 weights are based on market capitalization. Investment vehicles such as

index futures, index-based ETFs, etc., allow gaining exposure to a broad index

with a single trade.1

This strategy (a.k.a. “index arbitrage”) aims to exploit price inefficiencies

between the index spot2 price and index futures price.3 Theoretically, the

price of the index futures must equal the spot price accounting for the cost of

carry during the life of the futures contract:

1 Forsome literature on indexes, see, e.g., Antoniou and Holmes (1995), Beneish and Whaley (1996),

Bologna and Cavallo (2002), Bos (2000), Chang et al. (1999), Chiang and Wang (2002), Edwards (1988),

Frino et al. (2004), Graham and Pirie (1994), Hautcoeur (2006), Illueca and Lafuente (2003), Kenett et al.

(2013), Lamoureux and Wansley (1987), Larsen and Resnick (1998), Lo (2016), Schwartz and Laatsch

(1991), Spyrou (2005), Yo (2001).

2 “Spot” refers to the current value of the index based on the current prices of its constituents. “Cash”

refers to the underlying index portfolio. This is common trader lingo.

3 See, e.g., Brenner et al. (1989), Bühler and Kempf (1995), Butterworth and Holmes (2010), Chan and

Chung (1993), Cornell and French (1983), Dwyer et al. (1996), Fassas (2011), Puttonen (1993), Richie

et al. (2008), Yadav and Pope (1990), Yadav and Pope (1994).

Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur, 151 Trading Strategies,

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02792-6_6

122 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

Here: F ∗ (t, T ) is the theoretical (“fair”) price, at time t, of the futures contract

with the delivery time T ; S(t) is the spot value at time t; D(t, T ) is the sum of

(discounted values of ) the dividends paid by the underlying stocks between the

time t and delivery; and r is the risk-free rate, which for the sake of simplicity

is assumed to be constant from t to delivery.4 The basis is defined as

F(t, T ) − F ∗ (t, T )

B(t, T ) = (6.2)

S(t)

where F(t, T ) is the current price of the futures contract with the delivery

time T . If B(t, T ) = 0, more precisely, if |B(t, T )| exceeds the pertinent

transaction costs of executing the arbitrage trade, then there is an arbitrage

opportunity. If the basis is positive (negative), the futures price is rich (cheap)

compared with the spot price, so the arbitrage trade amounts to selling (buying)

the futures and buying (selling) the cash (i.e., the index basket).5 The position

is closed when the basis goes to zero, i.e., the futures price converges to its fair

value. Such arbitrage opportunities are short-lived and with the advent of high

frequency trading require extremely fast execution. In many cases, the slippage

can be prohibitive to execute the trade.6

Indexes

This strategy takes long positions on volatilities of the index constituents and

a short position on index volatility. It is rooted in an empirical observation

that, for the most part,7 the implied volatility

σ I from index options is sizably

higher than the theoretical index volatility σ I given by

4 Equation (6.1) further ignores some other pertinent aspects such as taxes, asymmetry of interest rates

(for long and short holdings), transaction costs, etc.

5 Selling the futures poses no

issues. However, selling the cash can be problematic with short-selling issues

such as hard-to-borrow securities, etc. Continuously maintaining a sizable dollar-neutral book which is

long cash and short futures can help circumvent such issues.

6 Insome cases incomplete baskets approximating the index can be executed to reduce the transaction

costs, e.g., in market cap weighted indexes, by omitting lower cap (and thus less liquid) stocks. However,

such mishedges also increase the risk of losing money on the trade.

7 But not always—see below. For some literature on index vs. constituent volatilities and dispersion and

correlation trading, see, e.g., Carrasco (2007), Deng (2008), Lozovaia and Hizhniakova (2005), Marshall

(2008), Marshall (2009), Maze (2012), Meissner (2016), Nelken (2006).

6 Indexes 123

N

σ I2 = wi w j σi σ j ρi j (6.3)

i, j=1

where wi are the weights of the stocks in the index, σi are their implied

volatilities from single-stock options, and ρi j is the sample correlation matrix

(ρii = 1)8 computed based on a time series of historical returns.9 Put differ-

ently, the index options are priced higher than the price corresponding to the

aforesaid theoretical volatility. So, a basic strategy can be structured as follows.

For each stock in the index we have a long position in n i (near-ATM) single-

stock option straddles (whose payoffs are based on the stock prices Pi ), and

we have a short position in a (near-ATM) option straddle for the index (whose

payoff is based on the index level PI —see below), where

Si PI

ni = N (6.4)

i=1 Si Pi

Here: Si is shares outstanding for stock i (we are assuming the index is market

cap weighted); and PI is the index level. With this definition of n i , we have

N

PI = i=1 n i Pi , so the index option straddle payoff matches the individual

single-stock option straddle payoffs as closely as possible.10 All options have

approximately 1 month until the expiration, and all positions remain open

until the expiration.11

For some indexes, some component stocks may not have single-stock options.

Often these would be less liquid, lower market cap stocks. They would have

to be excluded from the bought portfolio. Reducing the number of bought

8 Note that the pair-wise correlations ρ , i = j, typically are unstable out-of-sample, which can introduce

ij

a sizable error into this computation.

9 For some pertinent literature, see, e.g., Bakshi and Kapadia (2003a, b), Bakshi et al. (2003), Bollen and

Whaley (2004), Branger and Schlag (2004), Coval and Shumway (2001), Dennis and Mayhew (2002),

Dennis et al. (2006), Driessen et al. (2009), Gârleanu et al. (2009), Lakonishok et al. (2007).

10 If ATM options are not available for a given stock, OTM options (close to ATM) can be used.

11This strategy can be argued to be a volatility strategy. However, it can also be argued to be correlation

trading as the volatility of the portfolio depends on the correlations between its components (see Eq. (6.3)).

Thus, when the implied index volatility σ I is higher than the theoretical value σ I , this can be (arguably)

interpreted as the implied average pair-wise correlation being higher than the average pair-wise correlation

based on ρi j . In this regard, at times the index implied volatility can be lower than its theoretical value,

so the dispersion strategy that is short index volatility would lose money and the reverse trade might be in

order. See, e.g., Deng (2008).

124 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

Furthermore, the sample correlation matrix ρi j is singular for a typical lookback

period (e.g., daily close-to-close returns, going back 1 year, which is about 252

trading days) as the number of assets is large (500 for S&P 500 and even larger

for other indexes). As mentioned above, the pair-wise correlations are unstable

out-of-sample, which increases errors in the theoretical value σ I computed via

Eq. (6.3). This can be mitigated as follows.12

The singular and unstable correlation matrix can be made nonsingular and

more stable by replacing it with a statistical risk model (Kakushadze and Yu

(A)

2017). Let Vi be the principal components of ρi j with the eigenvalues λ(A)

in the decreasing order, λ(1) > λ(2) > λ(r) , where r is the rank of ρi j (if

r < N , the other eigenvalues are null: λ(A) = 0, A > r ). The statistical risk

model correlation matrix is given by

K

(A) (A)

ψi j = ξi2 δi j + λ(A) Vi Vj (6.5)

A=1

K

(A) 2

ξi2 = 1 − λ(A) Vi (6.6)

A=1

where K < r is the number of risk factors based on the first K principal

components that are chosen to explain systematic risk, and ξi is the specific

(a.k.a. idiosyncratic) risk. The simplest way to fix K is via eRank (effective

rank) (Roy and Vetterli 2007)—see Kakushadze and Yu (2017) for details and

complete source code for constructing ψi j and fixing K . So, now we can use

ψi j (instead of ρi j ) to compute the theoretical volatility σ I :

N 2

N

N

K (A)

(A)

σ I2 = wi w j σi σ j ψi j = wi2 σi2 ξi2 + λ Vi wi σi (6.7)

i, j=1 i=1 A=1 i=1

The first term on the r.h.s. of Eq. (6.7) is due to the specific risk. The long

portfolio then contains only the straddles corresponding to the first N∗ single-

stock options with the lowest N∗ values of wi2 σi2 ξi2 . E.g., for S&P 500 we can

take N∗ = 100.

12The variation of the dispersion trading strategy we discuss here is similar but not identical to the PCA

(principal component analysis) based strategy discussed in Deng (2008), Larsson and Flohr (2011), Su

(2006). The statistical risk model construction (see below) is more streamlined.

6 Indexes 125

Index ETFs

This strategy amounts to exploiting short-term mispricings between two ETFs

(call them ETF1 and ETF2) on the same underlying index.13 It can be sum-

marized as follows:

⎧

⎪

⎪ Buy ETF2, short ETF1 if P1Bid ≥ P2Ask × κ

⎪

⎨Liquidate position if P2Bid ≥ P1Ask

Rule = (6.8)

⎪

⎪ Buy ETF1, short ETF2 if P2Bid ≥ P1Ask × κ

⎪

⎩

Liquidate position if P1Bid ≥ P2Ask

Marshall et al. 2013); P1Bid and P2Bid are the bid prices for ETF1 and ETF2,

and P1Ask and P2Ask are the ask prices. Marketable “fill or kill” limit orders can

be used to execute the trades. Such arbitrage opportunities are ephemeral and

require a fast order execution system or else slippage will eat away the profits.

Risk-Free Asset

A volatility targeting strategy aims to maintain a constant volatility level, which

can be achieved by a periodic (weekly, monthly, etc.) rebalancing between a

risky asset—in this case an index—and a riskless asset (e.g., U.S. Treasury

bills).14 If σ is the volatility of the risky asset15 and the volatility target is σ∗ ,

then the allocation weight for the risky asset is given by16 w = σ∗ /σ , and

the allocation weight for the risk-free asset is 1 − w. To avoid overtrading

13 E.g., S&P 500 ETFs, SPDR Trust (ticker SPY) and iShares (ticker IVV). See, e.g., Marshall et al.

(2013). For some additional literature on ETF arbitrage and related topics, see, e.g., Abreu and Brun-

nermeier (2002), Ackert and Tian (2000), Ben-David et al. (2012), Brown et al. (2018), Cherry (2004),

Dolvin (2009), Garvey and Wu (2009), Hendershott and Moulton (2011), Johnson (2008), Maluf and

Albuquerque (2013).

14 Forsome pertinent literature, see, e.g., Albeverio et al. (2013), Anderson et al. (2014), Cirelli et al.

(2017), Cooper (2010), Giese (2012), Khuzwayo and Maré (2014), Kim and Enke (2016), Kirby and

Ostdiek (2012), Papageorgiou et al. (2017), Perchet et al. (2014), Torricelli (2018), Zakamulin (2014).

15 Usually, this is implied volatility as opposed to historical volatility as the former is considered to be

forward-looking. Alternatively, it can be based on various volatility-forecasting techniques.

16 If there is a preset maximum leverage L, then w is capped at L.

126 Z. Kakushadze and J. A. Serur

based, e.g., on a preset threshold κ, say, only if the percentage change | w|/w

since the last rebalancing exceeds κ.

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