0.

4
High Sales
$8,000.00
Hold Small Stock 0 8000

0 87200 0.6
Low Sales
$140,000.00
0 140000
2
140000 0.4
High Sales
$20,000.00
Hold Large Stock 0 20000

0 140000 0.6
Low Sales
$220,000.00
0 220000
ID Name Value Prob
0 TreePlan 0 0
1 0
2 0
3
4
5
6
Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col
0D 2 1 2 0 0 0 9 1
0E 2 3 4 0 0 0 4 5
0E 2 5 6 0 0 0 14 5
1T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9
1T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9
2T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9
2T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9
Mark
 0.089303
Low sales Probability
80000 High Sales 0.089303
Hold small stock 0 80000

0 134641.8 0.910697
High sales
140000
0 140000
2
202139.5 0.089303
Low sales
20000
Hold large stock 0 20000

0 202139.5 0.910697
High sales
220000
0 220000
ID Name Value Prob Pred
0 TreePlan 0 0 0
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 1
4 1
5 2
6 2
Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
D 2 1 2 0 0 0 9 1
E 2 3 4 0 0 0 4 5
E 2 5 6 0 0 0 14 5
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 9
T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 9
Trial Sorted Cumulative Percent Percentile Upper Limit
1 113278.3814 80472.28478 0.0167 0% 80472.28478 80000
2 95592.3443 82996.06838 0.0500 5% 83081.79152 90000
3 99638.27116 83186.56424 0.0833 10% 84524.98987 100000
4 103610.7164 84673.70383 0.1167 15% 85818.91552 110000
5 84673.70383 84919.67182 0.1500 20% 88114.35183 120000
6 140206.7124 87488.93951 0.1833 25% 93413.83381 130000
7 128351.3552 88270.70491 0.2167 30% 95098.85376 140000
8 84919.67182 93235.98647 0.2500 35% 100189.0426 150000
9 194264.7542 93947.37582 0.2833 40% 103490.4621 160000
10 103310.0805 95592.3443 0.3167 45% 105282.2892 170000
11 178618.8691 99638.27116 0.3500 50% 110739.8961 180000
12 175138.2713 103310.0805 0.3833 55% 123790.9952 190000
13 192723.2063 103610.7164 0.4167 60% 126670.2439 200000
14 124344.2907 105128.6513 0.4500 65% 138428.4089 210000
15 87488.93951 108201.4108 0.4833 70% 157674.8138 220000
16 93947.37582 113278.3814 0.5167 75% 173714.4589
17 93235.98647 124344.2907 0.5500 80% 180544.115
18 215047.6066 125549.5029 0.5833 85% 191155.8686
19 152631.2962 128351.3552 0.6167 90% 194860.9016
20 200226.2286 140206.7124 0.6500 95% 206581.0212
21 83186.56424 152631.2962 0.6833 100% 215047.6066
22 105128.6513 169443.0217 0.7167
23 88270.70491 175138.2713 0.7500
24 80472.28478 178618.8691 0.7833
25 188245.0986 188245.0986 0.8167
26 125549.5029 192723.2063 0.8500
27 211780.397 194264.7542 0.8833
28 108201.4108 200226.2286 0.9167
29 169443.0217 211780.397 0.9500
30 82996.06838 215047.6066 0.9833
Frequency RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation Mean
0 Date 1/30/2019 St. Dev.
7 Time 1:57:30 PM Mean St. Error
4 Workbook Decision Tree.xlsx Minimum
4 Worksheet soal 1a First Quartile
1 Output Cell $A$11 Median
3 Output Label Third Quartile
0 Seed 123 Maximum
1 Trials 30 Skewness
1 RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation
1
RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation - Histogram
2
1 8
2
7
1
2 6

0
80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000
RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation
RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation RiskSim 2.43 Trial for Evaluation
 130150.7256
45091.86708
8232.610919
80472.28478
93413.83381
110739.8961
173714.4589
215047.6066
0.6355
m 2.43 Trial for Evaluation

200000 220000
m 2.43 Trial for Evaluation
m 2.43 Trial for Evaluation
 0.5
Low sales

Hold small stock 0

0 110000 0.5
High sales
0.5
Forecast say low sales 0
2
0 120000 0.5
Low sales

Hold large stock 0

0 120000 0.5
High sales

Do forecast 0

0 120000 0.5
Low sales

Hold small stock 0

0 110000 0.5
High sales
0.5
Forecast say high sales 0
2
0 120000 0.5
Low sales

Hold large stock 0

1
120000 0 120000 0.5
High sales

0.5
Low sales

Hold small stock 0 80000

 0 110000 0.5
High sales

Do not forecast 0 140000

2
0 120000 0.5
Low sales

Hold large stock 0 20000

0 120000 0.5
High sales

0 220000
 80000
80000

140000
140000

20000
20000

220000
220000

80000
80000

140000
140000

20000
20000

220000
220000

80000
140000

20000

220000
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2 1
1 0 0E 2 3
2 0 0D 2 5
3 1D 2 7
4 1D 2 9
5 0 2E 2 19
6 0 2E 2 21
7 0 3E 2 11
8 0 3E 2 13
9 0 4E 2 15
10 0 4E 2 17
11 7T 0 0
12 7T 0 0
13 8T 0 0
14 8T 0 0
15 9T 0 0
16 9T 0 0
17 10 T 0 0
18 10 T 0 0
19 5T 0 0
20 5T 0 0
21 6T 0 0
22 6T 0 0
S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
2 0 0 0 34 1
4 0 0 0 19 5
6 0 0 0 49 5
8 0 0 0 9 9
10 0 0 0 29 9
20 0 0 0 44 9
22 0 0 0 54 9
12 0 0 0 4 13
14 0 0 0 14 13
16 0 0 0 24 13
18 0 0 0 34 13
0 0 0 0 2 17
0 0 0 0 7 17
0 0 0 0 12 17
0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 22 17
0 0 0 0 27 17
0 0 0 0 32 17
0 0 0 0 37 17
0 0 0 0 42 13
0 0 0 0 47 13
0 0 0 0 52 13
0 0 0 0 57 13
 0.5
Event 7

Decision 5 0

0 0 0.5
0.5 Event 8
Vir
1 0
0 0

Decision 6

0 0
Do text
0.5
0 0 Event 11

Decision 9 0

0 0 0.5
0.5 Event 12
Event 4
1 0
0 0

1 Decision 10
0
0 0

0.5
Event 15

Decision 13 0 0

0 0 0.5
Event 16
Decision 2
1 0 0
0 0

Decision 14

0 0
 0
0

0
0

0
0

0
0

0
ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1
0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 2 1
1 0 0E 2 3
2 0 0D 2 13
3 1D 2 5
4 1D 2 9
5 0 3E 2 7
6 0 3T 0 0
7 5T 0 0
8 5T 0 0
9 0 4E 2 11
10 0 4T 0 0
11 9T 0 0
12 9T 0 0
13 0 2E 2 15
14 0 2T 0 0
15 13 T 0 0
16 13 T 0 0
S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
2 0 0 0 26 1
4 0 0 0 15 5
14 0 0 0 38 5
6 0 0 0 8 9
10 0 0 0 23 9
8 0 0 0 4 13
0 0 0 0 12 13
0 0 0 0 2 17
0 0 0 0 7 17
12 0 0 0 19 13
0 0 0 0 27 13
0 0 0 0 17 17
0 0 0 0 22 17
16 0 0 0 34 9
0 0 0 0 42 9
0 0 0 0 32 13
0 0 0 0 37 13