Year Cellular Telephone Adoption

12/31/1986 0
12/31/1987 0.9891320207 Use only the first 5 years to estimate the model
12/31/1988 2.4706331904
12/31/1989 4.6614201249
12/31/1990 7.840611381
12/31/1991 12.330237142
12/31/1992 18.4326193504
12/31/1993 26.3098136981
12/31/1994 35.8272127641
12/31/1995 46.4488151999
12/31/1996 57.3020360056
12/31/1997 67.4370727313
12/31/1998 76.1361179246
12/31/1999 83.0783960294
12/31/2000 88.3037847043
12/31/2001 92.0662230519
12/31/2002 94.6896117579
12/31/2003 96.4780615504
12/31/2004 97.6786669033
Tracking
Dates
1986
1987
1988 Report Actual 0.00
0.99
2.47 Forecast Fitted Values 2.20
0.54
1.09 Upper Limit Lower Limit
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993 4.66
7.84 8.48
15.84
27.65
43.70 4.37
8.48 16.60
28.73
45.02 15.08
26.57
42.37
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998 61.18
76.19
86.66
92.96
96.40 62.71
77.90
88.54
94.98
98.56 59.65
74.48
84.79
90.93
94.24
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 98.20
99.10
99.56
99.78
99.89 100.49
101.52
102.09
102.43
102.65 95.90
96.69
97.02
97.13
97.14
2004 99.95 102.81 97.09
Cellular Telephone Adoption
2005 99.97 102.93 97.01

120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003
Actual Forecast Fitted Values Upper Limit Lower Limit

Forecast --Logistic CurveSelected

Forecast 5% - 95% 5% - 95%
Date Annual Upper Limit Lower Limit
1991 15.84 16.60 15.08
1992 27.65 28.73 26.57
1993 43.70 45.02 42.37
1994 61.18 62.71 59.65
1995 76.19 77.90 74.48
1996 86.66 88.54 84.79
1997 92.96 94.98 90.93
1998 96.40 98.56 94.24
1999 98.20 100.49 95.90
2000 99.10 101.52 96.69
2001 99.56 102.09 97.02
2002 99.78 102.43 97.13
2003 99.89 102.65 97.14
2004 99.95 102.81 97.09
2005 99.97 102.93 97.01
Total 1,197.03
Avg 79.80 81.86 77.74
Max 99.97 102.93 97.14
Min 15.84 16.60 15.08

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 9.06%
The data has a standard deviation of 3.14
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 97.77%

Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series:Cellular Telephone Adoption

Forecast %
Dates Original Data Fitted Data Error Series % Change Change
1986 0.00 0.54 -0.54
1987 0.99 1.09 -0.11 0.00% 101.93%
1988 2.47 2.20 0.27 149.78% 100.80%
1989 4.66 4.37 0.30 88.67% 98.56%
1990 7.84 8.48 -0.64 68.20% 94.32%
Avg 3.19 3.34 -0.14 76.66% 98.90%
Max 7.84 8.48 0.30 149.78% 101.93%
Min 0.00 0.54 -0.64 0.00% 94.32%
StDev 3.14 3.23 0.44 61.75% 3.36%
Var 9.83 10.42 0.19 38.13% 0.11%
Median 2.47 2.20 -0.11 78.44% 99.68%

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics

AIC 13.50 Durbin Watson (4)
BIC 11.94 Mean
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 9.06% Standard Deviation
R-Square 97.77% Ljung-Box
Adjusted R-Square 91.06%
Root Mean Square Error 0.42
Theil 0.18

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Logistic Curve
Minimum 0.00
Maximum 100.00

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data range selected [c3t9 new.xlsx]Cellular Telephone'!$A$1:$B$6
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 15.00
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeroes No
Remove Trailing Zeroes No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Logistic Curve

Report Details
Run Date: 3/3/2008 3:46:14 PM
Author: Barry Keating
Note:
on
1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

mit Lower Limit

Cumulative
Cumulative Error MAPE
-0.54 0.00%
-0.32 2.67%
 -0.13 3.01%
-0.02 2.65%
-0.14 2.45%
-0.23 2.16%
-0.02 3.01%
-0.54 0.00%
0.21 1.22%
0.04 0.01%
-0.14 2.65%

cast Statistics Value

0.01
3.19
dard Deviation 3.14
0.02
Cellular
0.989132
2.470633
4.66142
7.840611T Date 1987
1988
1989
1990
1991 Forecast of Cel Fitted
5.7052769317
8.7245200262 Values0.8 Upper
1.9277056
3.508203447
5.7052769317 11.187396882 Lower
6.2616431702
1992
1993 12.807293176
18.206152604 16.290327028
22.471980452 9.3242593236
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
25.129830221
33.649799877
43.580146203
54.382991892
65.192051256
75.023853492
83.112389108
89.15651838
93.313355591
2003 95.993691834 72.15811896 13.940324757
30.055583933
39.156959948
49.612937799
60.899151563
82.41248406
90.90068957
97.324956816
101.84501129
104.87372062
20.204076509
28.142639807
37.547354606
47.866832221
58.225983551
67.635222924
75.324088647
80.988079944
84.781699896
87.113663044
2004 97.64482541 106.86006679 88.429584029
Cellular Telephone Adoption

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Cellular Telephone Adoption Forecast of Cellular Telephone Adoption Fitted Values Upper Lower

Forecast -- Base Model Selected

Forecast 2.5% - 97.5% 2.5% - 97.5%
Date Annual Upper Lower
1991 8.72 11.19 6.26
1992 12.81 16.29 9.32
1993 18.21 22.47 13.94
1994 25.13 30.06 20.20
1995 33.65 39.16 28.14
1996 43.58 49.61 37.55
1997 54.38 60.90 47.87
1998 65.19 72.16 58.23
1999 75.02 82.41 67.64
2000 83.11 90.90 75.32
2001 89.16 97.32 80.99
2002 93.31 101.85 84.78
2003 95.99 104.87 87.11
2004 97.64 106.86 88.43
Avg 56.85 63.29 50.41
Max 97.64 106.86 88.43
Min 8.72 11.19 6.26

Summary Comments
The forecast has an average error of 23.27%
The data has a standard deviation of 2.98
The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 76.61%
Audit Trail - Summary Analysis

Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis

Series: Cellular Telephone Adoption

Original Fitted Series Forecast Cumulative Cumulative
Date Data Data Error % Change % Change Error MAPE
1987 0.99 0.80 0.19 0.19 19.12%
1988 2.47 1.93 0.54 149.78% 140.96% 0.37 15.05%
1989 4.66 3.51 1.15 88.67% 81.99% 0.63 12.79%
1990 7.84 5.71 2.14 68.20% 62.63% 1.01 11.29%
Avg 3.99 2.99 1.01 102.22% 95.19% 0.55 14.56%
Max 7.84 5.71 2.14 149.78% 140.96% 1.01 19.12%
Min 0.99 0.80 0.19 68.20% 62.63% 0.19 11.29%
StDev 2.98 2.13 0.85 42.44% 40.80% 0.35 3.41%
Var 8.86 4.52 0.73 18.01% 16.65% 0.13 0.12%
Median 3.57 2.72 0.85 88.67% 81.99% 0.50 13.92%

Audit Trail - Statistics

Accuracy Measures Value Forecast Statistics Value

AIC 15.12 Durbin Watson(1) 0.24
BIC 14.50 Mean 3.99
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 23.27% Standard Deviation 2.98
R-Square 76.61% Ljung-Box 0.00
Adjusted R-Square 76.61%
Root Mean Square Error 1.25

Method Statistics Value

Method Selected Base Model
p(inovation rate) 0.01
r(immitation rate) 0.42
qbar(cummulative value) 100.00

ForecastX Configuration Parameters

Item Value
Data Range Selectedular Telephone Adoption.xls]Cellular Telephone'!$A$1:$B$6
Time scale for data Annual
Periods to forecast 14
Seasonal Length
Replace Outliers Activated No
Replace Outliers Standard Deviations
Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique
Replace Missing Values No
Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit)
Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit)
Remove Leading Zeros Yes
Remove Trailing Zeros No
Use Holdback Evaluation No
Holdback Evaluation Period
Apply Tracking Signal No
Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage)
Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage)
Forecast Method Selected Bass Model

Report Details
Run Date: 4/16/2005 2:6 PM
Author: John Galt Development, Inc.
Note: ForecastX
 Year Cellular Telephone Adoption Logistics
12/31/1986 0 0.54
12/31/1987 0.9891320207 1.09 120
12/31/1988 2.4706331904 2.20
12/31/1989 4.6614201249 4.37
12/31/1990 7.840611381 8.48
12/31/1991 15.84 100
12/31/1992 27.65
12/31/1993 43.70
12/31/1994 61.18
12/31/1995 76.19 80
12/31/1996 86.66
12/31/1997 92.96
12/31/1998 96.40
60 Cellular Telephone Adoption
12/31/1999 98.20
Logistics
12/31/2000 99.10
12/31/2001 99.56
12/31/2002 99.78
40
12/31/2003 99.89
12/31/2004 99.95
12/31/2005 99.97
20

0
1/1/1986 1/1/1993 1/1/2000