Forecasting Future Performance of Unsaturated Reservoirs

Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 1 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR
302 Applied MODELING

Resrvoir Engineering
ENPE 302
Applied Reservoir Engineering
Forecasting Future Performance of

Undersaturated Reservoirs
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Performance Projection
The material balance equation can be used to forecast
the future oil recovery.
The future oil recovery can be related to the inflow
performance of producers and injectors to forecast the
production performance.
For forecasting the production performance of a
reservoir, we need to:
Estimate the average oil saturation and;
Corresponding gas/oil permeability ratio and;
Effective oil and gas permeabilities.
The effective oil and gas permeabilities can be used to
calculate the oil and gas production rates using the
pseudosteady state inflow performance equation.

HELP
Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 3 ENPEENPE

302 Applied Resrvoir Engineering
470 RESERVOIR MODELING
Performance Projection
Average Oil Saturation
One of the assumptions of the material balance
equation is a uniform oil and gas saturation distribution
throughout the reservoir.
Vo (N − N p )Bo
So = =
Vp NBoi
1 − S wi
(1 − S wi )(N − N p )Bo (1 − S wi )(N − N p )Bo

So = =
NBoi NBti

HELP
1
Example 1: Determination of oil saturation

In the Schuler field, when the average reservoir
pressure drops to 3,448 psia, a total of 476,100 STB of
oil is produced. The original oil in place estimated from
the material balance analysis and volumetric analysis is
123.144 MMSTB. The average initial water saturation is
0.35. The initial oil formation volume is 1.452 RB/STB.
The oil formation volume factor at 3,448 psia is 1.444
RB/STB. Calculate the average oil saturation.
(1 − S wi )(N − N p )Bo
So =
NBti

HELP

Example 1: Solution
In the Schuler field, when the average reservoir
pressure drops to 3,448 psia, a total of 476,100 STB of
oil is produced. The original oil in place estimated from
the material balance analysis and volumetric analysis is
123.144 MMSTB. The average initial water saturation is
0.35. The initial oil formation volume is 1.452 RB/STB.
The oil formation volume factor at 3,448 psia is 1.444
RB/STB. Calculate the average oil saturation.
So =
(1 − .35)(123.144 − .4761)1.444 = 0.644
123.144 * 1.452

HELP

Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

The gas-oil permeability ratio can be estimated from the
instantaneous producing gas-oil ratio (R) using the
pseudosteady state inflow performance equation.
0.00708k g h( p − pwf )
qg =
⎛ ⎛r ⎞ ⎞
Bg µ g ⎜⎜ ln⎜⎜ e ⎟⎟ − 0.75 + s ⎟⎟
⎝ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎠
0.00708ko h( p − pwf )
qo =
⎛ ⎛r ⎞ ⎞
Bo µ o ⎜⎜ ln⎜⎜ e ⎟⎟ − 0.75 + s ⎟⎟
⎝ ⎝ rw ⎠ ⎠

HELP
2

Divide gas and oil flow rates terms and after
cancellations.
qg (Bo µ o )(k g )
=
qo (Bg µ g )(k o )
⎛ kg ⎞ (R − Rs )(Bg µ g )
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ =
⎝ ko ⎠ (Bo µ o )

HELP


R is the instantaneous producing gas-oil ratio (GOR)
(SCF/STB).
Recall
qg
= (R − Rs )
qo

HELP

Example 1: Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

In the Schuler field, when the pressure drops to 3,448
psia the current producing gas-oil ratio is 850 SCF/STB.
The fluid properties at 3,448 psia are: .
Rs = 751 SCF/STB
Bg = 0.000849 RB/SCF
Bo = 1.444 RB/STB
µo
= 30.1
µg

HELP
3
Example 1: Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

Solution
⎛ k g ⎞ (R − Rs )(Bg )
⎜⎜ k ⎟⎟ = B (µ / µ )
⎝ o⎠ o o g
⎛ k g ⎞ (850 − 751)(0.000849 )
⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ = = 0.001935
⎝ ko ⎠ (1.444 * 30.1)

HELP

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio for Performance

Projection
The field production and fluid data may be used to
determine the gas-oil permeability ratio as a function of
average reservoir oil saturation.
Together with laboratory determined gas-oil permeability
ratio, an effective (or average) gas- oil permeability ratio
may be constructed for forecasting the reservoir
performance.

HELP


Projection
The field and laboratory gas-oil permeability ratio may differ
for the following reasons:
fluid segregation occurs in the field case.
high draw down near the wellbore can cause higher than
average gas saturation at the well.
heterogeneity of rock and fluid properties in the field case.

HELP
4

Projection
The gas-oil permeability ratio can be calculated for each
pressure of the selected pressure steps and plotted against
oil saturation calculated from material balance.
Plot the laboratory gas-oil permeability ratio on the same
plot and use the laboratory plot as a guide to extrapolate the
field gas-oil permeability ratio to a lower oil saturation.

HELP

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

Use the following field and laboratory data to construct a
field kg/ko ratio curve over the pressure interval from 3,443 to
2,153 psig.
N = 123.144 MMSTB
S wi = 0.35
Boi = 1.452 RB/STB

HELP


Pr N-Np Bo
(psig) (MMSTB) (RB/STB)
3,443 122.668 1.4440
3,303 121.668 1.4320
3,153 120.326 1.4200
2,938 118.491 1.4030
2,813 117.114 1.3930
2,678 115.784 1.3820
2,533 114.393 1.3710
2,453 113.271 1.3640
2,318 111.894 1.3530
2,153 110.525 1.3400

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5

Pr R-Rs µo/µg Bg/Bo Bg/Bo
(psig) (SCF/STB) _ _ STB/SCF RCF*STB/SCF*RB
3,443 99 30.0 0.000590 0.00331
3,303 197 30.8 0.000620 0.00348
3,153 295 32.0 0.000656 0.00368
2,938 365 34.3 0.000713 0.00400
2,813 368 35.9 0.000750 0.00421
2,678 574 37.8 0.000796 0.00447
2,533 841 40.1 0.000850 0.00477
2,453 946 41.6 0.000882 0.00495
2,318 1,120 44.3 0.000942 0.00529
2,153 1,412 48.1 0.001026 0.00576

HELP


Laboratory data:
So kg/ko
(frac) ratio
0.50 0.03500
0.52 0.02500
0.54 0.01600
0.56 0.01000
0.58 0.00600
0.60 0.00300
0.62 0.00130
0.64 0.00050
0.66 0.00010

HELP


Recall:
Vo (N − N p )Bo
So = =
vp vp
S oi =
voi Boi N
= (N − N )B
So =
p o
Boi N (1 − S wi )
vp vp
⇓
(1 − S wi ) = Boi N
vp

HELP
6

Use the saturation equation
to calculate the oil saturation Pr N-Np Bo So
(psig) (MMSTB) (RB/STB)
3,443 122.668 1.4440 0.642
(N − N )B 3,303 121.668 1.4320 0.630
So =
p o 3,153 120.326 1.4200 0.620
Boi N (1 − S wi )
2,938 118.491 1.4030 0.603
2,813 117.114 1.3930 0.592
2,678 115.784 1.3820 0.580
2,533 114.393 1.3710 0.569
2,453 113.271 1.3640 0.560
2,318 111.894 1.3530 0.549
2,153 110.525 1.3400 0.537

HELP


(R − R s )B g µ g
Calculate k g / k o → from k g / k o =
Bo µ o
That is the evaluation from field production data.
Pr R-Rs µo/µg Bg/Bo Bg/Bo kg/ko

(psig) (SCF/STB) _ RCF*STB/SCF*RB STB/SCF _ _
3,443 99 30.0 0.00331 0.000590 0.00195
3,303 197 30.8 0.00348 0.000620 0.00397
3,153 295 32.0 0.00368 0.000656 0.00604
2,938 365 34.3 0.00400 0.000713 0.00758
2,813 368 35.9 0.00421 0.000750 0.00769
2,678 574 37.8 0.00447 0.000796 0.01209
2,533 841 40.1 0.00477 0.000850 0.01782
2,453 946 41.6 0.00495 0.000882 0.02005
2,318 1,120 44.3 0.00529 0.000942 0.02383
2,153 1,412 48.1 0.00576 0.001026 0.03012

HELP

Plot the field and lab data and extrapolate both. The extrapolated
ratio may be taken as an average of both (lab and field)
Relative Permeability Ratio (kg/ko)

0.05 2
Lab Field (kg/ko)field = 2.2406So - 2.899So + 0.9406
2
R = 0.987
0.04
0.03
kg/ko
0.02
0.01
2
(kg/ko)lab= 1.845So - 2.3481So + 0.7471
2
R = 0.9964
0
0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7
So

HELP
7

For an economic evaluation of oil recovery we need to
forecast oil and gas production from a reservoir as a
function of expected future reservoir pressure. The material
balance equation and the instantaneous gas-oil ratio
equation can be used to forecast the future oil and gas
production.
The forecasting of future oil and gas production is an

iterative procedure. It starts by assuming an increment of
future oil recovery with a decrement of future pressure
decline and iterates on material balance and producing gas-
oil ratio until a convergence criterion is satisfied.

HELP


The computational algorithm is shown below:
1. Select a future pressure decrement, ∆Pnj (usually between 100
and 200 psi) from the last pressure at which cumulative
production is known. Here the superscript n is used to indicate
the counter of the iteration, and subscript j the time level
2. For the selected ∆Pnj assume an increment of cumulative
production,
3. Calculate the cumulative oil production, ∆Npnj
j j −1
N pj = ∑ (∆ N pj ) = ∑ (∆ N pj ) + ∆ N pj
n n
j =1 j =1

HELP


4. Calculate the average oil saturation,
(1 − S wi )(N − N pjn )Bo *

S ojn =
NBti
* (Bo Evaluated at p j − ∆p j )

HELP
8

5. Evaluate (kg/ko)j corresponding to Soj the from the function fitting
the field data plot (extrapolated) and calculate the instantaneous
producing gas-oil ratio.
⎛ k ⎞ (Bo µo )
n
n
R j = Rs + ⎜⎜ g ⎟⎟
⎝ ko ⎠ j (Bg µ g )

HELP


6. Calculate the incremental gas production,
⎛ R + R nj ⎞
∆G pjn = ∆N pjn ⎜⎜ j −1 ⎟
⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠

HELP


7. Calculate the cumulative gas production,
j j −1 ⎛ R + R nj ⎞
G pjn = ∑ ∆G pjn = ∑ ∆G pjn + ∆N pjn ⎜⎜ j −1 ⎟
⎟
j =1 j =1 ⎝ 2 ⎠

HELP
9

8. Calculate the cumulative producing gas-oil ratio,
G pjn
R =n
pj
N pjn

HELP


9. Calculate the absolute value of the difference,
N pjn [Bt + (R pjn − Rsi )Bg ]

δ jn = −1
N (Bt − Bti )

HELP


n
10. If δ j is less than a set convergence criterion, the assumed ∆Npnj
is accepted as the projected incremental oil recovery.
Otherwise, assume another ∆Npnj and repeat Steps 1) through
10).
if δ nj < 0 ⇒ N pjn is too small → increase assumed ∆N pjn
if δ jn > 0 ⇒ N pjn is too large → decrease assumed ∆N pjn

HELP
10
Example: Forecasting Future Performance of

In the Schuler field after 12.619 MMSTB of oil is produced,
the average reservoir pressure is 2,153 psia. At that time,
the cumulative producing gas-oil ratio is 1,239 SCF/STB.
Based on the production from original reservoir pressure, a
kg/ko versus So curve is developed. From early production
data, the original oil in place is calculated to be 123.144
MMSTB.
For the following given data, estimate NP, R RP, GP and SO
when the reservoir pressure dropped from 2,153 to 2,000
psia.

HELP


DATA GIVEN
S wi = 0.35
R j −1 (at 2,153 psia ) = 1,920 SCF/STB
G pj −1 (at 2,143 psia ) = 15,635 MMSCF
Pr Bo Rs Bg Bg Bt µo/µg
(RB/SC
(psia) (RB/STB) (SCF/STB) (RCF/SCF) F) (RB/STB)
0.00082
3,548 1.4520 769.00 0.004630 5 1.4520 -
0.00148
2,000 1.3280 479.00 0.008333 5 1.7587 53.0

HELP


DATA GIVEN
Laboratory Data: Field:
So kg/ko So kg/ko
(frac) ratio (frac) ratio
0.500 0.03500 0.642 0.00195
0.520 0.02500 0.630 0.00397
0.540 0.01600 0.620 0.00604
0.560 0.01000 0.603 0.00758
0.580 0.00600 0.592 0.00769
0.600 0.00300 0.580 0.01209
0.620 0.00130 0.569 0.01782
0.640 0.00050 0.560 0.02005
0.660 0.00010 0.549 0.02383

HELP
11
Example : Forecasting Future Performance of

Example Solution
1. Select ∆p j = 2,153 – 2,000 = 153 psia.

2. For the selected ∆p j assume an increment of cumulative production,
(n=1)
∆N 1pj = 1.381 MMSTB
3. Calculate the cumulative oil production, j

N 1pj = ∑ ∆N 1pj
j =1
N 1pj = 12.619 + 1.381

N 1pj = 14.00 MMSTB
HELP


Example Solution
4. Calculate the average oil saturation, (n =1)
(1 − Swi )(N − N 1pj )Bo

Soj1 =
NBti
S 1
=
(1 − 0.35)(123.144 − 14.000)1.328
oj
(123.144 )(1.452 )
Soj1 = 0.527

HELP


Example Solution
5. Read (kg/ko)j = 0.0365 at the corresponding Soj = 0.527 (better to have

an equation instead of reading the graph.
0.05 2
2
R = 0.987
0.04
0.03
kg/ko
0.02
0.01
2
(kg/ko)lab= 1.845So - 2.3481So + 0.7471
2
R = 0.9964
0
0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7
So

HELP
12

Example Solution
5. calculate the instantaneous producing gas-oil ratio,
⎛ k ⎞ (Bo µo )
1
R j = Rs + ⎜⎜ g ⎟⎟
1
⎝ ko ⎠ j (Bg µ g )
R j = 479 + 0.0365
1 (1.328)(53.0)
(0.001485)
R j = 2,209 SCF/STB
1

HELP


Example Solution
⎛ R + R1j ⎞
∆G1pj = ∆N 1pj ⎜⎜ j −1 ⎟
⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠
⎛ 1,920 + 2,209 ⎞
∆G1pj = 1.381⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠
∆G1pj = 2,851 MMSCF

HELP


Example Solution
j j −1 ⎛ R + R1j ⎞
G1pj = ∑ ∆G pjn = ∑ ∆G pjn + ∆N 1pj ⎜⎜ j −1 ⎟
⎟
j =1 j =1 ⎝ 2 ⎠
G pj = 15,635 + 2,851
1
G1pj = 18,486 MMSCF

HELP
13

Example Solution
G 1pj
R1pj =
N 1pj
18,486
R1pj =
14.00
R1pj = 1,320 SCF/STB

HELP


Example Solution
δ 1j =
[
N 1pj Bt + (R1pj − Rsi )Bg ]−1
N (Bt − Bti )
14.00[1.7587 + (1,320 − 769 )0.001485]
δ 1j = −1
123.144(1.7587 − 1.4520)
δ 1j = 0.0451

HELP


Example Solution
n
If we set the convergence criterion equal 0.01 (1 % tolerance), δ j
fails to satisfy the tolerance.
We need to assume another ∆Npnj and repeat Steps 1) through 9).
We try a larger incremental oil recovery for the selected pressure
drop:

HELP
14

Example Solution
1. Select ∆p j = 2,153 – 2,000 = 153 psia.

2. For the selected ∆p j assume an increment of cumulative production,
(n=2)
∆N pj2 = 1.841 MMSTB
3. Calculate the cumulative oil production, j

N pj2 = ∑ ∆N pj2
j =1
N pj2 = 12.619 + 1.841

N pj2 = 14.46 MMSTB

HELP


Example Solution
4. Calculate the average oil saturation, (n =1)
(1 − S wi )(N − N pj2 )Bo

S oj2 =
NBti
S oj2 =
(1 − 0.35)(123.144 − 14.460)1.328
(123.144)(1.452)
S oj2 = 0.525

HELP


Example Solution
5. Read (kg/ko)j = 0.038 at the corresponding Soj = 0.525 (better to have an

equation instead of reading the graph.
0.05 2
2
R = 0.987
0.04
0.03
kg/ko
0.02
0.01
2
(kg/ko)lab= 1.845So - 2.3481So + 0.7471
2
R = 0.9964
0
0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7
So

HELP
15

Example Solution
5. calculate the instantaneous producing gas-oil ratio,
⎞ (Bo µ o )
2
⎛k
R j = Rs + ⎜⎜ g⎟⎟
2
⎝ ko⎠ j (Bg µ g )
R j = 479 + 0.038
2 (1.328)(53.0)
(0.001485)
R j = 2,280 SCF/STB
2

HELP


Example Solution
⎛R +R⎞
∆G pj2 = ∆N pj2 ⎜⎜ j −1 ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎟⎠
⎛ 1,920 + 2,280 ⎞
∆G pj2 = 1.381⎜ ⎟
⎝ 2 ⎠
∆G pj2 = 3,3866 MMSCF

HELP


Example Solution
j
G pj2 = ∑ ∆G pjn
j =1
G pj2 = 15,635 + 3,866

G pj2 = 19,501 MMSCF

HELP
16

Example Solution
G pj2
R pj2 =
N pj2
19,501
R pj2 =
14,461
R pj2 = 1,349 SCF/STB

HELP


Example Solution
δ j2 =
[ ]
N 2pj B2 + (Rpj2 − Rsi )Bg
−1
N (Bt − Bti )
14.46[1.7587 + (1,349 − 769 )0.001485]
δ j2 = −1
123.144(1.7587 − 1.4520)
δ j2 = 0.0031

HELP


Example Solution
δ j2 satisfies the tolerance. ∆Np2j is accepted for the incremental oil

recovery for the selected pressure drop.
Proceed to the next pressure step.

HELP
17

HELP
18

Forecasting Future Performance of Unsaturated Reservoirs

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 1 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

302 Applied MODELING

Forecasting Future Performance of

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 2 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 3 ENPEENPE

(1 − S wi )(N − N p )Bo (1 − S wi )(N − N p )Bo

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Example 1: Determination of oil saturation

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 5 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 6 ENPEENPE

Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

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Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 8 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 9 ENPEENPE

Example 1: Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

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Example 1: Gas-oil Permeability Ratio

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 11 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio for Performance

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 12 ENPEENPE

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio for Performance

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Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio for Performance

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 14 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 15 ENPEENPE

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

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Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 17 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 18 ENPEENPE

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

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Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

(N − N )B 3,303 121.668 1.4320 0.630

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 20 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

Pr R-Rs µo/µg Bg/Bo Bg/Bo kg/ko

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 21 ENPEENPE

Extrapolation of kg/ko Ratio

Relative Permeability Ratio (kg/ko)

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Forecasting Future Performance of

The forecasting of future oil and gas production is an

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Oil Material Balance 1/31/2006 23 ENPEENPE 470 RESERVOIR

Forecasting Future Performance of