Sie sind auf Seite 1von 5

'LPHQVLRQLQJWUDIILFSHUIRUPDQFHLQ

,06QHWZRUN

%$$ODVVDQH %RXGDO1,$1*3K'
/DERUDWRU\RI&RPSXWHU1HWZRUNDQG 'HSDUWPHQW7HOHFRP(607
7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV 0XOWLQDWLRQDO+LJK6FKRRORI7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV
&KHLNK$QWD'LRS8QLYHUVLW\RI'DNDU'DNDU (607'DNDU
6HQHJDO 6HQHJDO
DODVVDQHPDLO#JPDLOFRP ERXGDOQLDQJ#HVPWVQ
 

ďƐƚƌĂĐƚͶ8VHUV DQG HQWHUSULVH QHHGV ZLOO GULYH ,QVHFWLRQ9DQHYDOXDWLRQRIMLWWHUDQGORVVHVLVPDGHE\
PXOWLPHGLD VHUYLFH HYROXWLRQ IRU ERWK PRELOH DQG IL[HG DQRSHQVRXUFHWRROQDPHG:LUHVKDUN7KHSDSHUFRQFOXGHV
RSHUDWRUV ,06 ,3 0XOWLPHGLD 6XEV\VWHP  LV D UHFRJQL]HG LQ6HFWLRQ9,
VWDQGDUG RI *33 JURXS ,06LVZHOOLQWHJUDWHG ZLWK H[LVWLQJ ,,7+(,0675$)),&
YRLFH DQG GDWD QHWZRUNV ZKLOH DGRSWLQJ PDQ\ RI WKHLU NH\
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7KH 6,3 VHUYHUV DUH WKH NH\ SDUW RI WKH ,06 &DOO 6HVVLRQ &RQWURO )XQFWLRQV &6&)V  DUH WKH VHVVLRQ
VWUXFWXUH 7KH\ DUH WKH PDLQ FRPSRQHQWV UHVSRQVLEOH IRU URXWLQJ SRLQWV LQ WKH ,06 FRUH QHWZRUN 7KH\ GLVWULEXWH
SURFHVVLQJ DQG URXWLQJ PHVVDJHV :LWK FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQFRPLQJFDOOVWRWKHDSSOLFDWLRQVHUYLFHV
QHWZRUNVJHWWLQJPRUHDQGPRUHSUHVHQWLQRXUGDLO\DFWLYLWLHV 7KH &6&)V KDQGOH LQLWLDO VXEVFULEHU DXWKHQWLFDWLRQ
QHWZRUN RXWDJHV RU VLJQLILFDQW GHJUDGDWLRQV RI WKH TXDOLW\ RI $SSOLFDWLRQVHUYLFHVWKDWUHFHLYHDPHVVDJHIURPWKH&6&)V
VHUYLFH 4R6  EHFRPH OHVV DQG OHVV WROHUDEOH 2XU UHVHDUFK DUH GHILQHG WR SHUPLW WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI WKDW FDOO DQG WR
ZRUNVRQLPSURYHPHQWRIWKH4R6LQ,06QHWZRUNV,WLVEDVH
SHUIRUPDGGLWLRQDOVHUYLFHUHODWHGFKHFNV
LQ WKH RQH KDQG PRGHOLQJ WUDIILF DQG RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG
GLPHQVLRQLQJ WUDIILF 7KHVH SHUIRUPDQFH RSWLPL]DWLRQV DUH 7KHILUVWSRLQWRIFRQWDFWIRUWKHXVHUHTXLSPHQW 8( WR,06
HVVHQWLDOO\GHGLFDWHGWRWKHWUDIILFRILQSXWDQGRXWSXWIORZVDW QHWZRUNLVWKH3UR[\&6&),WIRUZDUGV6,3WRDQGIURPWKH
6,3 VHUYHUV :H EXLOG 2SHQ6RXUFH ,06 SODWIRUP XQGHU KRPH QHWZRUN DQG PD\ DOVR SHUIRUP HQFU\SWLRQ DQG
8%8178/LQX[GLVWULEXWLRQ FRPSUHVVLRQ7KH,QWHUURJDWLQJ&6&) ,&6&) LVWKHHQWU\
SRLQW WR WKH KRPH QHWZRUN ,W PD\ IXQFWLRQ VLPLODU WR D
<ĞLJǁŽƌĚƐͶ,066,3&6&)4R6 ILUHZDOODQGKLGHWKHLQWHUQDOWRSRORJ\

,1752'8&7,21 $WODVWWKH6HUYLQJ&6&) 6&6&) LVWKHPDLQHOHPHQW


LQVHVVLRQFRQWURO,WLVIXOO\UHVSRQVLEOHIRUUHJLVWUDWLRQDQG
7KH ,06 FRUH QHWZRUN XVH WKH SURWRFRO 6,3 WR PDQDJH FRQWUROOLQJ RI VHVVLRQV WR WKH 8( ,W DOVR GHFLGHV ZKLFK
WKH PXOWLPHGLD VHVVLRQV DQG RQ WKH SURWRFRO ,3 IRU WKH $SSOLFDWLRQ 6HUYHUV $6  WKDW QHHGV WR EH WULJJHUHG
WUDQVSRUWDQGDVVRFLDWHGVLJQDOLQJWUDIILF GHSHQGLQJRQWKH,QLWLDO)LOWHU&ULWHULD ,)& 7KH,)&LVSDUW
,WFUHDWHVDXQLILHGFRPPXQLFDWLRQHQYLURQPHQWZLWKWKH RIWKHXVHUSURILOHZKLFKLVKHOGLQWKH+66 KRPHVXEVFULEHU
H[LVWLQJIL[HGDQGPRELOHYRLFHDQGGDWDQHWZRUNVLQFOXGLQJ VHUYHU DQGGRZQORDGHGWRWKH66&6)XSRQUHJLVWUDWLRQ
WKH,QWHUQHWVHUYLFHV7KLVHYROXWLRQLQFUHDVHRIIHUHGVHUYLFHV 7KH+66LVDGDWDEDVHWKDWFRQWDLQVDOOVXEVFULEHUV¶GDWD
QXPEHURIXVHUVDQGWUDIILFV OLNH WKH VHUYLFHV WKDW LV DOORZHG WR DFFHVV WKH QHWZRUN LQ
,Q FRQYHUJLQJ WRZDUGV DQ $OO,3 QHWZRUN DQG QHZ ZKLFK KH LV JUDQWHG WR URDP DQG WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH
WHFKQRORJLHV WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI PXOWLPHGLD ZLWK VHUYLFHV ORFDWLRQ RI WKH VXEVFULEHU 2QFH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH
VWULFWUHTXLUHPHQWVLPSOLHV4R6JXDUDQWHHV VXEVFULEHU KDV FKDQJHG WKH HQWLUH SURILOH LV VHQW WR WKH 6
*HQHUDOO\ WKH DWWULEXWHV RI 4R6 DUH GHILQHG LQ WHUPV RI &6&) PDNLQJ LW DOZD\V V\QFKURQL]HG ZLWK WKH +66 $Q
JXDUDQWHHGRIELWUDWHZDLWLQJGHOD\ORVVUDWHDQGMLWWHU LPSRUWDQW IXQFWLRQ RI WKH +66 LV WR SURYLGH WKH HQFU\SWLRQ
7KLV SDSHU LV RUJDQL]HG DV IROORZV VHFWLRQ ,, JLYHV WKH DQG DXWKHQWLFDWLRQ NH\V RI WKH XVHU ZKHQ D XVHU UHJLVWHUV
WUDIILF RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ DQ ,06 VHVVLRQ :RUN LQ VHFWLRQ ,,, KLPVHOILQWKHQHWZRUNKHPXVWSURYLGHWKHFUHGHQWLDOVWRWKH
DQG,9FRQFHUQPRGHOLQJDQGGLPHQVLRQLQJWKH,06WUDIILF 6&6&)DQGWKHVHDUHFKHFNHGDJDLQVWWKHRQHVWRUHGLQWKH
:LWK 0DUNRYLDQ DQG PRUH UHFHQW DSSURDFKHV ZH JLYH D +66>@>@>@>@>@>@
JHQHUDO PRGHOWUDIILF ZKLFK KROGV NH\V SDUDPHWHUV VXFK WKH
GLVWULEXWLRQZDLWLQJGHOD\

,,,02'(//,1*$1'',0(16,2181*,0675$)),&86,1* P
§ Ȝ7 ·
0$5.29,$1$3352$&+ OLP OQ ¨   ¸  Ȝ7 
P of
© P¹
7KH6,3VHUYHUVDUHHVVHQWLDOQRGHVRI,06QHWZRUN7KH
P
TXDOLW\ RI VHUYLFH LV D NH\ IDFWRU IRU WKH HPHUJHQFH RI WKH § Ȝ7 ·
,06 7KH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH SHUIRUPDQFH DLPV DW DQ OLP ¨   ¸ H Ȝ7 
LPSURYHPHQW RI WKH TXDOLW\ RI VHUYLFH DQG D SODQQLQJ RI
P of
© P ¹
FDSDFLWLHV Ȝ7 Q  Ȝ7
/HW GR PDWKHPDWLFDODQDO\VLVJLYLQJ XV D JHQHUDO PRGHO 3Q 7 H      
WUDIILF ZKLFK KROGV NH\VSDUDPHWHUV VXFK TXHXHGLVWULEXWLRQ Q
DQGZDLWLQJGHOD\:HXVHUHVXOWVRI0DUNRYPRGHOWKHRU\LQ ɉLVWKHDYHUDJHQXPEHURIDUULYLQJPHVVDJHVZHKDYHD
TXHXH>@>@>@ 3RLVVRQ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWK SDUDPHWHU O  ,I ɒ  LV WKH WLPH
LQWHUYDOVHSDUDWLQJWZRFRQVHFXWLYHPHVVDJHVWKHQWKHUHLV
PHVVDJHGXULQJɒ
OW


3 'W t W 3 W H  OW H  OW
   
 3 'W  W   3 'W t W   H  OW

)LJXUH3URFHVVLQJPHVVDJH 7KH SUREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ IXQFWLRQ RI LQWHUYDO VHSDUDWLQJ


:H FDQ GHVFULEH SURFHVV RI PHVVDJH DUULYDO LQ D TXHXH WZRFRQVHFXWLYHPHVVDJHVLV
G   H  ȜW
V\VWHP E\ WZR HTXLYDOHQW ZD\V DUULYDO DQG LQWHUDUULYDO
EHWZHHQPHVVDJHV
,QGHSHQGHQWO\ RI WKH WHUPLQDO OHW XV VWXG\ WKH DFFHVV WR I 'W W ȜH ȜW    
GW
QHWZRUNRQDVPDOOLQWHUYDORIWLPH>7@
:H QRWH WKDW LI WKH DUULYDO PHVVDJHV DUH 3RLVVRQ
/HWXVVXEGLYLGH>7@WRPHTXDOSDUWV
GLVWULEXWHG ZLWK SDUDPHWHU ɉ  WKHQ WKH VHUYLFH WLPH LV
,IPYDOXHEHFDPHKLJKZHFDQPDNHWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDW
H[SRQHQWLDOGLVWULEXWHGZLWKSDUDPHWHUɉ
GXULQJο–LQILQLWHVLPDO WLPH DUULYH D VLQJOH PHVVDJH LQ WKH
3URFHVVLQJV UHDOL]HG LQ WKH FRPSXWHU V\VWHPV RU
3UR[\ 3&6&)  ZLWK SUREDELOLW\ ɉο– RU  PHVVDJH ZLWK
FRPPXQLFDWLRQ PRGHUQ RIWHQ KDYH GHWHUPLQLVW GXUDWLRQV
SUREDELOLW\ ͳ െ ɉο–  :H WKXV KDYH P LGHQWLFDO DQG
7KHUHIRUH WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKHLU SHUIRUPDQFHV QHHGV
LQGHSHQGHQW GLVWULEXWLRQ RI %HUQRXOOL WKHQ D %LQRPLDO
GHWHUPLQLVWVHUYLFH9DULRXVPRGHOVZHUHVRFRQVLGHUHG7KH
SURFHVV7KHSUREDELOLW\୬ ሺሻWRKDYHQPHVVDJHVDUULYLQJ 0' RQH LV WKH VLPSOHVW DQG WKH PRVW JHQHUDO XVHG ZLWK
GXULQJ>7@LV PDQ\ DSSOLFDWLRQV RQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG SURGXFWLRQ
3Q P &PQ O'W Q   O'W PQ     V\VWHPV>@>@7KLVPRGHODOUHDG\VWXGLHGE\$.(UODQJ
6XSSRVH LQFRUUHVSRQGVWRDTXHXHV\VWHPZLWK3RLVVRQDUULYDO
3Q 7 OLP 3Q P
DQGGHWHUPLQLVWVHUYLFH
Pof 'LVWKHJHQHUDOGLVWULEXWLRQVHUYLFHDQGIRUWKHFDVHRI
LI P'W 7 DVLQJOHVHUYHUIRUH[DPSOHWKH3UR[\&6&)RQH
WKHQ 6XSSRVH Ȝ W ¦
Ȝ L WKHWRWDOHQWHULQJUDWHDWGDWHWDQG
ȜP'W   Ȝ'W P Q
Q
P L
3Q P ሺ–ሻWKHTXHXHORDGDWGDWHW
Q P  Q  P Q
,Iρ‫ כ‬LVWKHRXWSXWUDWHRIWKHTXHXHDWGDWHWZHKDYHWKH
P Ȝ7   Ȝ'W
Q P Q

 IXQGDPHQWDOUHODWLRQIRUDQLQILQLWHVLPDOYDULDWLRQWLPH†–
P  Q  Q PQ
; W  'W Ȝ W  ȝ W ˜ GW  ; W 

 
P P    P  Q   P  Q    Ȝ'W P Q
Ȝ7
Q

 )URPHTXDWLRQ  
P  Q  PQ Q
; W  GW  ; W
§  ·§ · § Q   ·§ Ȝ7 ·
PQ
Ȝ7 Q O W  P W
 ¨  ¸¨  ¸ ¨  ¸¨  ¸ GW
© P ¹© P ¹ © P ¹© P¹ Q
,QDQRWKHUSDUW ; W  GW  ; W
OLP  P W O W    
§ Ȝ7 · GW o  GW
P OQ ¨   ¸
§ Ȝ7 · § Ȝ7 · © P¹ w;
OQ ¨   ¸ P OQ ¨  ¸ Ȝ7
Ȝ7  O  P
© P¹ © P¹ 
P
wW
+HQFH
ϭϲϬϬ 7KH +$*8( DQG 7+,00$ 9- *$1(6+ %$%8 VKRZ
ϭϰϬϬ
ϭϮϬϬ WKDWWKHPHVVDJHGLVWULEXWLRQLVJLYHQE\>@
 )&)6  H[SRQHQWLDO VHUYLFH
ϭϬϬϬ
­
ŶƚƌLJZĂƚĞ

ϴϬϬ ʅΎ °
°
F
U QL
ϲϬϬ ʄΎ
°
  U P – L
L  QL 
ϰϬϬ
°   
ϮϬϬ
°  3URFHVVRU VKDULQJ  DUELWUDU\ VHUYLFH
Ϭ ° F
U QL O
ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ °   U P – L  UL L
 ° L  QL  PL
)LJXUHTXHXHORDG 3 Q  Q  }} QF ®
°  ,QILQLWH QXPEHU RI VHUYHU  DUELWUDU\ VHUYLFH
பଡ଼ °
,I ൌWKHQɉ ൌ ρ‫ כ‬LVWKHFDVHRIFRQVWDQWUHJLPH °
F
U QL
H  U – L  UL
OL
ப୲
பଡ଼ ° L  QL  PL
,I ൐ ͲLW PHDQV ZKHQ WKH TXHXH ORDG LQFUHDVLQJ WKDW °
 3UHHPSWLYH/&)6  DUELWUDU\ VHUYLFH
ப୲ °
LVDQLQFUHDVHRIWKHWUDIILF ° F
U QL O
7KHQρ‫ כ‬െȜ!ฺρ‫! כ‬Ȝ °   U P – L  UL L
¯ L  QL  PL
7KHGLVWULEXWLRQGHOD\JLYHQE\0RVKH=XNHUPDQ>@LV :KHUH
 P O W
3 ' ! W H ୧ QXPEHUPHVVDJHVRIFODVV‹
    ɏ୧ SUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRIPHVVDJH‹
G
QXPEHUFODVVRIPHVVDJHV
3 ' ! W  P  O H  P  O W  
GW F

,IWKHTXHXHORDGLQFUHDVHVWKHZDLWLQJGHOD\VGHFUHDVH P ¦ Q  L
 L 

ϭ͕Ϯ $7KHFODVVRIPHVVDJHV
ϭ
7KHUHDUHIRXUGLIIHUHQW4R6FODVVHVFRQYHUVDWLRQDOFODVV
VWUHDPLQJFODVVLQWHUDFWLYHFODVVDQGEDFNJURXQGFODVV>@
tĂŝƚŝŶŐƚŝŵĞ;ƐĞĐ͘Ϳ

Ϭ͕ϴ   &RQYHUVDWLRQDOFODVV
Ϭ͕ϲ $SSOLFDWLRQV ZKLFK XVH WKLV FODVV LQFOXGH WHOHSKRQ\
VSHHFK YRLFH RYHU ,3 DQG YLGHR FRQIHUHQFLQJ 5HDO WLPH
Ϭ͕ϰ ɲ FRQYHUVDWLRQLVDOZD\VSHUIRUPHGEHWZHHQJURXSVRIKXPDQV
Ϭ͕Ϯ DQG VR WKLV LV WKH RQO\ VFKHPH ZKHUH WKH UHTXLUHG
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DUH VWULFWO\ JLYHQ E\ KXPDQ SHUFHSWLRQ 7KH
Ϭ
ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ
PD[LPXPWUDQVIHUGHOD\LVGLFWDWHGE\KRZ PXFKGHOD\WKH
EƵŵďĞƌŽĨĐŽŶŶĞĐƚŝŽŶƐ
 KXPDQV FDQ WROHUDWH IRU DXGLR DQG YLGHR 7KHUHIRUH WKH
ERXQGVIRUDFFHSWDEOHWUDQVIHUGHOD\DUHYHU\VWULQJHQWDQGLI
)LJXUHORDGHYROXWLRQ
WUDQVIHU GHOD\ LV QRW ORZ HQRXJK WKHQ LW DIIHFWV WKH TXDOLW\
$Q LQFUHDVH RI WKH WUDIILF LPSOLHV D UHGXFWLRQ RI ZDLWLQJ 7KH WUDQVIHU GHOD\ VKRXOG EH ORZHU DQG VWULQJHQW WKDQ WKH
GHOD\ XS WR D WKUHVKROG YDOXH RIɉZKHUH LW EHFDPH ULVLQJ URXQGWULSGHOD\IRUWKLVFODVV
DJDLQIROORZHGE\DSHULRGRILQVWDELOLW\RIWKHQHWZRUN  6WUHDPLQJFODVV
6XSSRVHɉ‫ כ‬WKLVWKUHVKROG $SSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKLVFODVVLQFOXGHVOLVWHQLQJWRRUORRNLQJDW

 O W
:HKDYH 3 ' ! W H P D UHDOWLPHYLGHR DXGLR 7KLVVFKHPHLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKDW
$QGWKHQ WKHWLPHUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQLQIRUPDWLRQHQWLWLHVZLWKLQDIORZ
VKDOO EH SUHVHUYHG DOWKRXJK LW GRHV QRW KDYH DQ\
OQĮ UHTXLUHPHQWV RQ ORZ WUDQVIHU GHOD\ 7KH GHOD\ YDULDWLRQ RI
Ȝ   ȝ       
W WKHHQGWRHQGIORZVKRXOGEHOLPLWHGWRSUHVHUYHWKHWLPH
:LWKDQHQWU\UDWHRIELWVSHUVHFRQG .ESV WKLV YDULDWLRQEHWZHHQWKHLQIRUPDWLRQHQWLWLHVRIWKHVWUHDP
WKUHVKROG FRUUHVSRQGV WR D PD[LPXP RI  ILYH  6,3  ,QWHUDFWLYHFODVV
VLPXOWDQHRXVFRQQHFWLRQVWROHUDWHG ,QWHUDFWLYH WUDIILF LV D FRPPXQLFDWLRQ VFKHPH ZKLFK LV
பଡ଼
,I ൏ ͲWKHQρ‫ כ‬൏ ߣQHWZRUNLVXQVWDEOH FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHUHTXHVWUHVSRQVHSDWWHUQRIWKHHQGXVHU
ப୲ 5RXQGWULSGHOD\LVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWDWWULEXWHIRUWKLVFODVV
,902'(//,1*$1'',0(16,2181*,0675$)),&86,1* $QRWKHU LPSRUWDQW DWWULEXWH LV WKDW WKH HUURU UDWH VKRXOG EH
&/$6675$)),&$3352$&+ YHU\ ORZ LQ WKH GDWD WUDQVIHU $SSOLFDWLRQV IRU WKLV FODVV
LQFOXGH EURZVLQJ WKH ZHE GDWDEDVH UHWULHYDO DFFHVV RI
,Q DQ DSSURDFK ZKHUH PHVVDJHV DUH FODVVHV VXEGLYLGHG VHUYHUHWF
DFFRUGLQJ IURP 4R6 4XDOLW\ RI 6HUYLFHV  -(5(0,$+ )  %DFNJURXQGFODVV
7KLVLVDVHUYLFHFODVVLQZKLFKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQVUXQLQWKH
EDFNJURXQG IRU H[DPSOH DQ HPDLO SURJUDP ,W VOHHSV IRU
PRVWRIWKHWLPHDQGZDNHVXSZKHQDQHPDLODUULYHV2WKHU Ϭ͕Ϭϵ
H[DPSOHVLQFOXGH606GRZQORDGRIGDWDEDVHV%DFNJURXQG Ϭ͕Ϭϴ
Ϭ͕Ϭϳ
WUDIILFLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKDWWKHGHVWLQDWLRQLVQRWH[SHFWLQJ Ϭ͕Ϭϲ

ƉƌŽďĂďŝůŝƚLJ
WKH GDWD ZLWKLQ D FHUWDLQ WLPH 7KXV WKLV FODVV LV OHVV GHOD\ Ϭ͕Ϭϱ ʌсϬ͕ϯ
VHQVLWLYHDQGFRQWHQWVVKRXOGEHGHOLYHUHGZLWKORZHUURUUDWH Ϭ͕Ϭϰ
Ϭ͕Ϭϯ
ʌсϬ͕ϱ
ʌсϬ͕ϳ
%7KHVHUYLFHGLVFLSOLQH Ϭ͕ϬϮ
Ϭ͕Ϭϭ ʌсϬ͕ϵ

:H VWXG\ FXUUHQW GLVWULEXWLRQV DVVRFLDWHG WR WKH PRGHO Ϭ


ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ ϵ ϭϬ
DQG ILQG WKUHH GLVFLSOLQH VHUYLFH WKH SURFHVVRU VKDULQJ WKH
ʌϭсϬ͘ϮϮϱ ʌϮсϬ͘ϮϮϱ ʌϯсϬ͘ϭϳϱ ʌϰсϬ͘ϭϱ
LQILQLWHVHUYHUPRGHODQGWKHSUHHPSWLYHDUELWUDU\VHUYLFH>@ 
>@>@
)LJXUH%RWKFODVVHVUHSUHVHQWRIWKHWUDIILF
  7KHSURFHVVRUVKDULQJPRGHO
,Q D SURFHVVRU VKDULQJ 36  TXHXLQJ V\VWHP WKH VHUYHU 
FDSDFLW\ LV VKDUHG HTXDOO\ DPRQJ DOO WKH FXVWRPHUV WKDW DUH Ϭ͕ϭϮ
SUHVHQW LQ WKH V\VWHP 7KLV PRGHO LV DSSOLFDEOH WR D WLPH Ϭ͕ϭ
VKDUHGFRPSXWHUV\VWHPZKHUHDFHQWUDOSURFHVVRUVHUYHVDOO Ϭ͕Ϭϴ

ƉƌŽďĂďŝůŝƚLJ
WKH MREV SUHVHQW LQ WKH V\VWHP VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ DW DQ HTXDO Ϭ͕Ϭϲ
ʌсϬ͕ϵ
VHUYLFHUDWH Ϭ͕Ϭϰ
ʌсϬ͕ϳ

  7KHLQILQLWHVHUYHUPRGHO ʌсϬ͕ϱ
Ϭ͕ϬϮ
7KHLQILQLWHVHUYHUPRGHOLVDPRGHOLQZKLFKDPHVVDJH ʌсϬ͕ϯ
Ϭ
LV LPPHGLDWHO\ DVVLJQHG D VHUYHU DV LW HQWHUV WKH V\VWHP ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ ϵ ϭϬ
1RWLFHWKDWIRUERWKSURFHVVRUVKDULQJDQGWKHLQILQLWHVHUYHU ʌϭсϬ͘ϯϱ ʌϮсϬ͘ϯϱ ʌϯсϬ͘ϭϱ ʌϰсϬ͘ϭϱ
FDVHDOOPHVVDJHVDUHVLPXOWDQHRXVO\LQVHUYLFH 
  7KHSUHHPSWLYHDUELWUDU\VHUYLFH )LJXUH%RWKFODVVHVUHSUHVHQWRIWKHWUDIILF
)RU WKHODVWFDVH ZH WXUQ WR WKH SUHHPSWLYH UHVXPH ODVW Ϭ͕ϬϬϭϰ
FRPH ILUVW VHUYHG /&)6  GLVFLSOLQH )RU WKH /&)6 TXHXH Ϭ͕ϬϬϭϮ
GLVFLSOLQHDPHVVDJHDWWKHKHDGRIWKHOLQHKDYLQJUHDFKHGD Ϭ͕ϬϬϭ
FHUWDLQ VWDJH LQ WKH VHUYLFH SURFHVV PD\ EH GLVSODFHG E\ D
ƉƌŽďĂďŝůŝƚLJ

Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϴ ʌсϬ͕ϵ
QHZDUULYDO7KLVPHVVDJHPD\EHGLVSODFHGLQWXUQE\DQHZ Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϲ ʌсϬ͕ϳ
PHVVDJHDQGVRRQLWJRHV Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϰ ʌсϬ͕ϱ
$GLVFLSOLQHRWKHUWKDQILUVWFRPHILUVWVHUYHG )&)6 LVQRW Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϮ ʌсϬ͕ϯ
DOZD\VHDV\WRLPSOHPHQWIRUDPXOWLWXGHRIFRQQHFWLRQVDQG Ϭ
RQEURDGEDQGQHWZRUNV ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ ϵ

%HVLGHV WKH QHZ PXOWLPHGLD DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ UHFHQW ʌϭсϬ͘ϰʌϮсϬ͘ϰʌϯсϬ͘ϭʌϰсϬ͘ϭ

HPHUJHQFHKDYHQHHGVZKLFKFDQQRWEHVDWLVILHGE\DVHUYLFH 
EDVHGRQWKHFRQFHSWWKHVDPHVHUYLFHIRUDOO VKDULQJDQG )LJXUH%RWKFODVVHVUHSUHVHQWRIWKHWUDIILF
LQILQLW\VHUYHU  
7KHQ ZH XVH WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ   RI PRGHO JLYHQ E\
Ϭ͕ϬϬϭϮ
-(5(0,$+)7KH+$*8(DQG7+,00$9-*$1(6+
%$%8>@ Ϭ͕ϬϬϭ

1XPEHUVRIFODVVDUHIRXU Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϴ
ƉƌŽďĂďŝůŝƚLJ

ʌсϬ͕ϵ

ȡLQL
 Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϲ

3 Q  Q   Q   Q  – 
ʌсϬ͕ϳ
  ȡ P   Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϰ ʌсϬ͕ϱ

L  QL  Ϭ͕ϬϬϬϮ ʌсϬ͕ϯ

ଵ ǣQXPEHURIPHVVDJHVRIWKHFRQYHUVDWLRQDOFODVV Ϭ
ϭ Ϯ ϯ ϰ ϱ ϲ ϳ ϴ ϵ ϭϬ
ଶ ǣQXPEHURIPHVVDJHVRIWKHVWUHDPLQJFODVV ʌϭсϬ͘ϰϱʌϮсϬ͘ϰϱʌϯсϬ͘Ϭϱ ʌϰсϬ͘Ϭϱ
ଷ ǣQXPEHURIPHVVDJHVRIWKHLQWHUDFWLYHFODVV 
ସ ǣQXPEHURIPHVVDJHVRIWKHEDFNJURXQGFODVV )LJXUH%RWKFODVVHVUHSUHVHQWRIWKHWUDIILF
ɏ୧ SUREDELOLW\GLVWULEXWLRQRIPHVVDJH‹
F
7KH FRQYHUVDWLRQDO FODVVHV DQG VWUHDPLQJ VXSSRVHG

¦Q 
HTXLYDOHQW XVH WKH ODUJHVW SDUW RI WUDIILF :H VWXG\ IROORZ
P L FDVHV
L 
  ɏଵ ൌ ͲǤʹʹͷ  ɏଶ ൌ ͲǤʹʹͷ  ɏଷ ൌ ͲǤͳ͹ͷ  ɏସ ൌ ͲǤͳͷ
ɏǣWUDIILFLQWHQVLW\
FRQYHUVDWLRQDO DQG VWUHDPLQJ FODVV UHSUHVHQW   RI WKH
&5HVXOW WUDIILF
:HREVHUYHWKHUDWLRRIWUDIILFRFFXSLHGE\ERWKFODVVHV
FRQYHUVDWLRQDODQGVWUHDP
  ɏଵ ൌ ͲǤ͵ͷ  ɏଶ ൌ ͲǤ͵ͷ  ɏଷ ൌ ͲǤͳͷ  ɏସ ൌ ͲǤͳͷ )XUWKHU ZRUN LV WKH H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH VWXG\ LQ D PXOWLVHUYHU
FRQYHUVDWLRQDO DQG VWUHDPLQJ FODVV UHSUHVHQW   RI WKH SODWIRUP,WZLOOJLYHEHWWHUHQJLQHHULQJRIWUDIILFDQGRSWLPDO
WUDIILF HQJLQHHULQJRIUHVRXUFHVDQGSK\VLFDOQHWZRUN
 ߩଵ ൌ ͲǤͶߩଶ ൌ ͲǤͶߩଷ ൌ ͲǤͳߩସ ൌ ͲǤͳ FRQYHUVDWLRQDO
DQGVWUHDPLQJFODVVUHSUHVHQWRIWKHWUDIILF 5()(5(1&(6
  ɏଵ ൌ ͲǤͶͷ  ɏଶ ൌ ͲǤͶͷ  ɏଷ ൌ ͲǤͲͷ  ɏସ ൌ ͲǤͲͷ >@ +DVVDQ +$66$1 -HDQ0DULH *$5&,$ DQG 2OLYLHU %581
FRQYHUVDWLRQDO DQG VWUHDPLQJ FODVV UHSUHVHQW   RI WKH /$$6&156 7RXORXVH )UDQFH %DQGZLGWK $OORFDWLRQ DQG
WUDIILF 6HVVLRQ 6FKHGXOLQJ XVLQJ 6,3 -2851$/ 2)
&20081,&$7,21692/12$8*867
,Q FDVH   DQG   ILJXUH  DQG   FRQYHUVDWLRQDO DQG
VWUHDPLQJ FODVV RFFXS\ UHVSHFWLYHO\  DQG   RI WKH >@3(77(5/,1'*5(1'LDPHWHUVHUYLFHFUHDWLRQLQYHVWLJDWLRQ
WUDIILF DUULYDO &XUYHV FRQWLQXH RQ VWDEOH GHFUHDVLQJ DQG +66 (YDOXDWLRQ 0DVWHU¶V 7KHVLV 6XSHUYLVRU 6WHIDQ
H[SODLQLQJEHWWHUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQYDULDEOHV gVWHUJDDUG.DMVD*RIIULFK([DPLQHU3URI*HUDOG40DJXLUH-U
7KLVLVQRWIRUFDVH DQG  ILJXUHDQG  
)LJXUHSUHVHQWVPRUHVWDEOHHYROXWLRQRIGLVWULEXWLRQ,W >@+DVVDQ+$66$10RGpOLVDWLRQHWDQDO\VHGHSHUIRUPDQFHVGX
FRUUHVSRQGVWRFDVH ZKHUHWUDIILFLVGLVWULEXWHGLQWR WUDILFPXOWLPpGLDGDQVOHVUpVHDX[KpWpURJqQHVPpPRLUH'RFWRUDW
GHO¶8QLYHUVLWp3DXO6DEDWLHU±7RXORXVH,,,
FRQYHUVDWLRQDO DQG VWUHDPLQJ FODVV DQG  WR LQWHUDFWLYH
DQG EDFNJURXQG FODVV :H GHGXFW WKDW IRU D VWDEOH WUDIILF >@ 0HVXG +DGåLDOLü 0LUNR âNUELü 1HUPD âHþLü 0LU]D
9DUDWDQRYLü(OYHGLQD=XOLü1HGLP%LMHGLü8QLYHUVLW\RI6DUDMHYR
ORDG PXVW EH GLVWULEXWHG IRU  WR WKH WZR ILUVW FODVV RI
3UREOHPRI,06PRGHOOLQJ±6ROYLQJ$SSURDFKHV&754
WUDIILFDQGIRUWKHRWKHU
>@0OLQGL0DVKRORJX3HUIRUPDQFHRSWLPL]DWLRQRI,30XOWLPHGLD
 6XEV\VWHP'LVVHUWDWLRQFRP%RFD5DWRQ)ORULGD
9/266(6$1'-,77(5
>@ & &KL %HOO /DERUDWRULHV $OFDWHO/XFHQW FKLF +DR %HOO
)RUHVWLPDWLQJORVVHVDQGMLWWHUZHXVH:LUHVKDUNZKLFK
/DERUDWRULHV $OFDWHO/XFHQW ':DQJ %HOO /DERUDWRULHV $OFDWHO
LVDQRSHQVRXUFHWRROXVHGLQGLIIHUHQWWUDIILFV /XFHQW = &DR ,QVWLWXWH RI ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6FLHQFH %HLMLQJ -LDRWRQJ
)URPFDSWXUHVZHQRWHWKDWORVWSDFNDJHVFDQLQFUHDVHMLWWHU 8QLYHUVLW\  0RGHOOLQJ ,06 3UHVHQFH 6HUYHU 7UDIILF $QDO\VLV
1XOO   RU ORZ MLWWHU   DUH REVHUYHG IRU WKH YRLFH 3HUIRUPDQFH,(((
WUDIILF >@ -(5(0,$+ ) +$<(6 7+,00$ 9 - *$1(6+ %$%8
)RUJOREDO573IORZ ILJXUH RIORVVHVFRUUHVSRQGWR 0RGHOLQJ DQG $QDO\VLV RI WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV QHWZRUN  E\
DQDYHUDJHMLWWHURIPVZKHQJLYHDPVMLWWHU -RKQ:LOH\ 6RQV,QF$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG
7KHQZHQRWHWKDWORVVHVDQGMLWWHUDUHYDU\LQJKHUHDWVDPH >@ 0RVKH =XNHUPDQ ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR 4XHXLQJ 7KHRU\ DQG
SURSRUWLRQ   6WRFKDVWLF7HOHWUDIILF0RGHOV
7KH PD[LPXP YDOXH RI MLWWHU FDQ EH XVHG IRU GLPHQVLRQLQJ >@:LQIULHG*UDVVPDQQ0RGHOOLQJ0DUNRYLDQ4XHXHVDQG6LPLODU
EXIIHU VL]H WR DYRLG FRQJHVWLRQ -LWWHU VXSHULRU WR  PV 3URFHVVHV 'HSDUWPHQW RI &RPSXWHU 6FLHQFH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
GHJUDGHV WRR PXFK WKH4R6DQG LV QRWDFFHSWDEOH>@>@ 6DVNDWFKHZDQ &256  6&52  $118$/ &21)(5(1&(
(QHUJ\ 1DWXUDO 5HVRXUFHV DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW 0$< 
ϭϬϬ ('021721$/%(57$
ϴϬ >@ *33 94XDOLW\ RI 6HUYLFH 4R6  &RQFHSW DQG
ϲϬ $UFKLWHFWXUH-XQH
ũŝƚƚĞƌ

ϰϬ
ŵĞĂŶũŝƚƚĞƌ >@96 $EKD\DZDUGKDQD 5%DEEDJH $ 7UDIILF 0RGHO IRU WKH
ϮϬ
ůŽƐƚ ,30XOWLPHGLD6XEV\VWHP ,06 ,(((
Ϭ
ϭ >@%=KX$QDO\VLVRI6,3LQ8076,3PXOWLPHGLDVXEV\VWHP
Ϯ
ϯ 0DVWHU ̉ V WKHVLV &RPSXWHU (QJLQHHULQJ 1RUWK &DUROLQD 6WDWH
ϰ
8QLYHUVLW\
ŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨĐŽŶŶĞĐƚŝŽŶƐ
>@ 2OLYLH %UXQ $QDO\VH HW 2SWLPLVDWLRQ GH 3HUIRUPDQFH GHV
 5pVHDX[GH&RPPXQLFDWLRQ+DELOLWDWLRQj'LULJHUGHV5HFKHUFKHV
)LJXUH(YROXWLRQORVWDQGMLWWHU
 GpOLYUpHSDUO¶8QLYHUVLWp7RXORXVH,,,IpYULHU
9,&21&/86,21$1')8785(:25.6 >@ 5DQGDOO /DQGU\ 6WXG\ RI GHOD\ -LWWHU ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXWSHDN
UDWHHQIRUFHPHQW0HPEHU,(((DQG,RDQQLV6WDYUDNDNLV6HQLRU
,06 LQWURGXFH D FRUH QHWZRUN LQ HQYLURQPHQW RI IL[HG
0HPEHU,(((
DQGPRELOHFRQYHUJHQFHVHUYLFHV
7KH 4R6 LV QHHGV ZKLFK PXVW EH VDWLVILHG E\ QHWZRUN LW
DWWULEXWH EHLQJ GHILQHG E\ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZDLWLQJ GHOD\
SDFNDJHVORVWDQGMLWWHU
2XU UHVHDUFK VKRZ WKDW LQ DQ HQWULQJ UDWH RI  ELWV SHU
VHFRQG NESV DPD[LPXPRI ILYH 6,3VLPXOWDQHRXV
FRQQHFWLRQVLVWROHUDWHGIRUVWDELOLW\RIWKHQHWZRUN
$OVR RXU VWXG\ VKRZV WKDW IRU VWDEOH QHWZRUN WUDIILF PXVW
EHGLVWULEXWHGLQWR FRQYHUVDWLRQDODQGVWUHDPLQJFODVV
DQGWRLQWHUDFWLYHDQGEDFNJURXQGFODVV

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen