Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 : histoire et

finance
Thi Hong Van Hoang

To cite this version:

Thi Hong Van Hoang. Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 : histoire et finance. Gestion et
management. Université d’Orléans, 2010. Français. <NNT : 2010ORLE0503>. <tel-00569210>

HAL Id: tel-00569210

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00569210
Submitted on 24 Feb 2011

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 UNIVERSITÉ D’ORLÉANS

ÉCOLE DOCTORALE DES SCIENCES DE L’HOMME ET DE LA

SOCIETÉ
THÈSE présentée par :

Thi Hong Van HOANG

Soutenue le 6 décembre 2010

pour obtenir le grade de : Docteur de l’université d’Orléans

ès Sciences de Gestion
Discipline : Finance

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :

histoire et finance
THÈSE dirigée par
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans

RAPPORTEURS
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg

PRESIDENT DU JURY
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université de Montpellier 1
Président de l’Association Française de Finance

JURY
Gilbert COLLETAZ Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Raphaël Di MARZIO Gérant de portefeuille, UBGI France
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Philippe PAQUET Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université Montpellier 1


 UNIVERSITÉ D’ORLÉANS

ÉCOLE DOCTORALE DES SCIENCES DE L’HOMME ET DE LA

SOCIETÉ
THÈSE présentée par :

Thi Hong Van HOANG

Date de soutenance : le 6 décembre 2010

pour obtenir le grade de : Docteur de l’université d’Orléans

ès Sciences de Gestion
Discipline : Finance

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :

histoire et finance
THÈSE dirigée par
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans

RAPPORTEURS
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg

PRESIDENT DU JURY
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université de Montpellier 1
Président de l’Association Française de Finance

JURY
Gilbert COLLETAZ Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Raphaël Di MARZIO Gérant de portefeuille, UBGI France
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Philippe PAQUET Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université Montpellier 1

 







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Sous-période 1 : 02/1948-08/1971 Avril 1969 / 75 F
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80

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70 Mai 1950 : 29 F Emss on du 2ème Nov. 1961 / 41 F
Augmentat on de emprunt de Pnay Créat on du Poo de 'or
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1971
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30
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Nov. 1968 / 66 F
Déva uat on du do ar
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20 doub e marché
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Hausse de a Mars 1954 / 4200 F Juillet 1955 / 4200 F
demande ndustr e e Réouverture du marché Stab sat on de Pnay
10 Mai 1968 / 58 F
de 'or à Londres

févr. 48
févr. 49
févr. 50
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10
emprunt Pnay Juillet 1955 / 25%
Stab sat on de Pnay

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1968
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35000
Sous-période 2 : 09/1971-04/1978
Févr. 1978 / 29495 F
L'or dém onétisé
Tension politique au
Proche-Orient
Mars 1974 / 28160 F
30000 1er choc pétrolier

Mars 1973 / 13050 F

25000 Dévaluation du dollar à$42 et
adoption du système de change
flottant par plusieurs pays
Avril 1978 / 25600 F
Accord de Jamaïque
20000 fin de Bretton-Woods
Déc. 1974 / 28000 F
Liberté du commerce
Mai 1972 / 9295 F
de l'or aux Etats-Unis
Dévaluation du dollar à $38

Janv. 1976 / 19000 F Janv. 1977 / 21675 F

15000 Etablissement de Taxe forfaitaire à 4%
l'Accord de Jamaïque

Nov. 1973 / 15390 F

Fin du double marché
10000 Juin 1973 / 16525 F
- Prolongement de
l'emprunt Pinay
Janv. 1973 / 10.910 F - Hausse du prix de
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Giscard 7% dévaluation du dollar
5000
Sept. 1971 / 7425 F

0
Jul 76
Jul 77

Jul 74
Jul 75

Jul 72
Jul 73
Jan 76
Jan 77
Jan 78

Jan 74
Jan 75

Jan 72
Jan 73
Nov 76
Nov 77

Nov 74
Nov 75

Nov 73

Nov 71
Nov 72
Mar 77
Mar 78

Mar 75
Mar 76

Mar 72
Mar 73
Mar 74
Sep 74
Sep 75
Sep 76
Sep 77

Sep 73

Sep 71
Sep 72
May 77

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May 72
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35000
Sous-période 2 : 09/1971-04/1978
L'or dém onétisé

30000 Juin 1975 / 22475 F

Ventes de 500 000
onces par les Etats Unis

25000

Juin 1976
20000 Juil. 1972
Rumeur des ventes off cie les de Janv. 1975
l'or lors de la réunion du Conse l Ventes de 754000
des Gouverneurs du FMI onces par les Etats Unis

15000

Mars 1974 A partir de juin 1976

Rumeur des ventes officie les de l'or par Ventes de 780 000 onces toutes les six/huit semaines
les Etats Unis lors du projet de loi de liberté par le FMI
10000 de détention et de commerce de l'or aux A partir de m ars 1977
Etats Unis Ventes de 525 000 onces chaque mois par le FMI
Sept. 1973
Rumeur des ventes officielles de l'or
lors de la réun on annuelle du FMI

5000

0
Nov-77
Nov-75

Nov-76
Nov-73

Nov-74
Nov-71

Nov-72

Jul-77

Jan-78
Jul-75

Jan-76

Jul-76

Jan-77
Jan-72

Jul-72

Jan-73

Jul-73

Jan-74

Jul-74

Jan-75

Sep-77

Mar-78
Mar-75

Sep-75

Mar-76

Sep-76

Mar-77
Sep-73

Mar-74

Sep-74

May-76

May-77
Sep-71

Mar-72

Sep-72

Mar-73

May-74

May-75
May-72

May-73

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350
Sous-période 2 : 09/1971-04/1978
L'or démonétisé
Févr. 1978 / 300 F
Tension politique au
Mars 1974 / 280 F Proche Orient
300
1er choc pétrolier

Mars 1977 / 243 F

Elections municipales
250 Mars 1973 / 93 F
Dévaluation du dollar à $42 et
adoption du système de change
flottant par plusieurs pays

Avril 1978 / 260 F

200 Accord de Jamaïque,
fin de Bretton Woods
Déc. 1974 / 298 F
Liberté du commerce
de l'or aux Etats Unis Janv. 1976 / 225 F
Etablissement de
150 l'Accord de Jamaïque
Janv. 1977 / 236 F
Mai 1972 / 65 F Taxe forfaita re à 4%
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100

Nov. 1973 / 130 F

F n du double marché

Juin 1973 / 120 F

50
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Janv. 1973 / 87 F - Hausse du prix de
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0

Nov-77
Nov-74

Nov-75

Nov-76
Nov-71

Nov-72

Nov-73

Jul-77

Jan-78
Jan-75

Jul-75

Jan-76

Jul-76

Jan-77
Jan-72

Jul-72

Jan-73

Jul-73

Jan-74

Jul-74

Sep-77

Mar-78
Sep-75

Mar-76

Sep-76

Mar-77
May-77
Sep-71

Mar-72

Sep-72

Mar-73

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Mar-74

Sep-74

Mar-75
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May-76
May-72

May-73

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Sous-période 2 : 09/1971-04/1978
L'or dém onétisé
Déc. 1976 / 68%

Mars 1974 / 71%

120 1er choc pétrolier

100 Mars 1973 / 23%

Dévaluation du dollar et adoption Janv 1978 / 77%
du système de change flottant Échéance électorale
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80

Déc. 1974 / 83%

Liberté du commerce
de l'or aux Etats Unis Janv. 1976 / 104%
Etablissement de
60 l'Accord de Jamaïque
Janv. 1977 / 87%
Mai 1972 / 21% Taxe forfaitaire à 4%
Dévaluation du dollar à
$38 au lieu de $35

40 Août 1976 / 125%

Avril 1978 / 75%

Nov. 1973 / 45% Accord de Jamaïque,
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20

Sept. 1971 / 42% Juin 1973 / 25%

Hausse du prix de
l'or liée à la
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0

Nov-76

Nov-77
Nov-74

Nov-75
Nov-71

Nov-72

Nov-73

Jan-77

Jul-77

Jan-78
Jan-74

Jul-74

Jan-75

Jul-75

Jan-76

Jul-76
Jan-72

Jul-72

Jan-73

Jul-73

May-77

Sep-77
May-75

Sep-75

May-76

Sep-76

Mar-77

Mar-78
May-73

Sep-73

May-74

Sep-74

Mar-75

Mar-76
Sep-71

May-72

Sep-72
Mar-72

Mar-73

Mar-74

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Jan-75

Jul-75

Jan-76

Jul-76

Jan-77

Jul-77

Jan-78
Sep-71

Mar-72
May-72

Sep-72

Mar-73
May-73

Sep-73

Mar-74
May-74

Sep-74

Mar-75
May-75

Sep-75

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180 0
1975 / 137 tonne s
Rumeur sur le projet de taxe
sur les ventes
160 0 Ventes off icielles des Etats
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140 0

1973 / 223 tonnes

Dé but 1978 / 87 tonne s
1er choc pétrolier 1976 / 104 tonne s
120 0 Inquidétude vis à vis de
Dévaluation du dollar Ventes of f icie les du FMI
l'élection
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change f lottant Jamaïque
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100 0

1974 / 226 tonnes 1977 / 58 tonne s

1972 / 158 tonne s Hausse du prix de Entrée en vigueur de la taxe
80 0 Nouveaux accords l'or sur le marché f orf aitaire sur les ventes
monétaires sur la international
démonétisation de l'or Ouverture du
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120000
De m ai 1978 à janvier 1983 : Bulles spéculatives

Juin 1980 / 85210 F Janv. 1981 / 86490 F

Persistance de la tension Taux de la taxe forf aitaire
Janv. 1980 / 86800 F
au Moyen-Orient et en passe de 4% à 6%
100000 - Achats massifs du
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Afghanistan
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80000
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Sept. 1980 / 91000 F

Janv. 1979 / 31900 F
Conflit ran- rak
Début du 2ème choc
60000 pétrolier

Mars 1980 / 72490 F

Hausses massives des Mai 1981 / 95995 F
ventes bénéficiaires Election de François-
Metterrand
Mai 1982 / 64400 F
Nouvelle réglementation
40000 du marché de l'or à la
Sept. 1981 / 94795 F Bourse de Paris
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Sept. 1979 / 53500 F du franc
Mai 1979 / 40995 F Achats massifs du - Rumeur sur le retour à
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20000 mondiale
Oct. 1978 / 31400 F
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pétrole
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des changes l'anonymat
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Janv. 1980 / 720 F Persistance de la tension
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800
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Janv. 1981 / 900 F
700 Afghanistan
Taux de la taxe forfaitaire
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passe de 4% à 6%
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600
Sept. 1980 / 789 F
Janv. 1979 / 269 F
Conflit ran- rak
Début du 2ème choc
500 pétrolier

Mars 1980 / 660 F

Hausses massives des Mai 1981 / 940 F
ventes bénéficiaires Election de François-
400 Metterrand
Mai 1982 / 587 F
Nouvelle réglementation du
Sept. 1981 / 945 F marché de l'or à la Bourse de
300 - Craintes de dévaluation du Paris
franc
Sept. 1979 / 440 F
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Achats massifs du
Mai 1979 / 318 F or
200 Moyen-Orient
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Oct. 1978 / 230 F mondiale
Faiblesse du dollar - Hausse du prix du Oct. 1981 / 749 F
américain sur les pétrole Suppression de
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30000

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De m ai 1978 à m ai 1979
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10000
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0
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 79 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
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1980 / 61,7 tonnes 1981 / 70,3 tonnes
Vote du projet de loi sur la Election de François
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année 1981
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2%

0%
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10.0%

8.0%
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6.0% actions (4%, 9%)

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
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11%

10%

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9%
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10.8%

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10.4%

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obligations + 0,02% m ines
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10.0%

9.8%
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(4%; 8,6%)

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9% lingot (3,8%; 8%) (19%; 11%)
4%
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2% 65% lingot (11%, 5%)

0%
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12.0%
Frontières efficientes des portfeuilles français avec le lingot, de 1983 à 2009
Point 99% obligations + 1% actions (4%; 8,6%)
10.0%

8.0%

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Point : 1% actions + 90% (19%; 11%)
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4.0% (3,8%; 8%)

2.0%

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Frontières e fficientes des portfeuilles français avec le lingot, de 1983 à 2004
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10%

8%
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6%
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4% Point 89% obligations +

11% lingot (3,9%; 8,4%)
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0%
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14.0%
Frontières e fficie ntes des portfe uilles français avec le lingot, de 1983 à 2004
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10.0%

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11% lingot (3,9%; 8,4%)
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Frontières e fficientes des portfeuilles français avec le lingot, de 2004 à 2009
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12%

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53% lingot (11%; 11%)
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lingot (3,2%; 4,8%)
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16.0%
Frontières efficiente s des portfeuille s français avec le lingot, de 2004 à 2009
14.0%
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(17%; 15%)
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8.0%

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Frontières efficientes des portfeuilles français avec le napoléon, de 1983 à 2009
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6%
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actions (19%; 11%)
4% (3,8%; 8%)

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(11,4%; 5,2%)
0%
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12.0%
Frontiè res efficientes des portfeuilles français avec le napolé on, de 1983 à 2009

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8.0%

6.0% Point : 1% actions + 90%

obligations + 9% napoléon
(3,8%; 8%) Point : 100%
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2.0%

0.0%
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8% (10%; 2%)

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2%

0%
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14.0%
Frontiè res efficientes des portfeuilles français avec le napolé on, de 1983 à 2004
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10.0%

8.0%
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6.0% Point : 100% actions
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4.0%

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10%
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4% (10%; 2%)

2%
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18.0%
Frontiè res efficientes des portfeuilles français avec le napolé on, de 2004 à 2009
16.0%

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12.0%
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6.0%
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(18%; 5,4%)
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9%
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Frontières efficientes des portfeuilles français avec les fonds or, de 1983 à 2009

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Point : 98% obligations + (19%; 11%)
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4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
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10%
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9%
8%
3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21%
Actions+Fonds or Obligations+Fonds or

14.0%
Frontières efficientes des portfeuilles français avec les fonds or, de 1983 à 2004
12.0%

10.0%
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11%
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2,5% fonds or (3,1%; 4,5%)
9%
8%
7% Point : 100% fonds or
(31%; 11%)
6%
5%
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3%
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12.0%
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10.0%
Point : 93% obligations
+ 6% actions + 1% fonds
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6.0%
Point : 100% fonds or
(31%; 11%)
4.0%
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Point : 93% obligations + (18%; 5,4%)
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0.0%
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9%

8%

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5%
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10.0%

8.0%
Point : 99% obligations + 1% actions (4%; 8,6%)

6.0% Point : 100% actions

(19%; 11%)
4.0%
Point : 98% obligations +
0,5% actions + 1,5% m ines
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0.0%
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13%
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11%
11%
10%
10%
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9%
8%
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10.0%

8.0% Point : 100% obligations (4,2%; 9,7%)

Point : 100% actions
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m ines d'or (4,1%; 9,4%)
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0.0%
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m ines d'or (17,6%, 4,3%)

2%
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0%
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5.0%

4.0%

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3.0% Point : 100% actions
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Thi Hong Van HOANG

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :

histoire et finance

Résumé
La loi monétaire de septembre 1939 interdit la détention, le commerce, l’importation et l’exportation de l’or en
France. Un marché clandestin s’est alors créé en 1941 et fonctionne jusqu’en janvier 1948. La loi du 2 février
1948 a rendu la liberté au commerce de l’or en France. Ainsi, un marché officiel de ce métal précieux est-il ouvert
à la Bourse de Paris. Après 56 ans d’existence, il est fermé en juillet 2004. Depuis cette date, le marché de l’or en
France est un marché de gré à gré où le prix d’équilibre est déterminé par la Compagnie Parisienne de
Réescompte. Malgré cette riche histoire, le marché de l’or à Paris depuis 1941 n’a jamais été étudié
scientifiquement jusqu’à maintenant. Afin de l’explorer, cette thèse est divisée en deux parties distinctes. La
première l’étudie sous l’angle historique. Nous analysons son évolution en le rattachant aux événements de
l’histoire le qualifiant de plusieurs statuts différents : un marché clandestin de 1941 à 1948 (chapitre 1), un marché
réglementé de 1948 à 2004 (chapitres 2 et 3) et un marché de gré à gré de 2004 à 2009 (chapitre 4). La deuxième
partie de la thèse étudie le marché de l’or à Paris sous l’angle financier. Les résultats du chapitre 5 montrent que
l’hypothèse de l’efficience informationnelle du marché parisien de l’or ne semble pas être validée. Dans le
chapitre 6, nous trouvons que l’or coté à Paris (le lingot et la pièce napoléon) est moins rentable à long-terme que
les actions. Cependant, il est aussi risqué que ces dernières et quatre fois plus risqué que les obligations.
Contrairement à la littérature anglo-saxonne, nous trouvons, dans le chapitre 7, que l’or n’est pas un bon moyen de
protection contre l’inflation en France. De même, l’or coté à Paris n’est favorable dans la diversification des
portefeuilles français que durant les périodes où son prix a une tendance haussière.

Mots clés : marché de l’or à Paris, efficience informationnelle, rentabilité-risque, pouvoir d’achat, protection
contre l’inflation, diversification de portefeuille

The Paris Gold Market from 1941 to 2009:
History and Finance

Abstract
The monetary law of September 1939 forbids possession, trade, import and export of gold in France. A
clandestine market was then created in 1941 and operates until January 1948. The law of February 2nd, 1948
turned back the liberty to the gold trade in France. Thus, an official market was opened at the Paris Stock
Exchange. After 56 years of existence, it was closed in July 2004. Since then, the gold market in France is an over
the counter market where price is fixed by the Compagnie Parisienne de Réescompte. In spite of this very rich
history, the Paris Gold Market from 1941 has never been studied scientifically before. In order to explore this
market, our thesis is divided in two distinct parts. The first one concerns the historical analysis. We present the
evolution of the market in parallel with the historical events which describe it by different natures: a clandestine
market from 1941 to 1948 (chapter 1), an official market from 1948 to 2004 (chapters 2 and 3) and an over the
counter market from 2004 until now (chapter 4). The second part of the thesis analyzes the financial aspects of the
Paris gold market. The results of the chapter 5 show that the efficient market hypothesis seems not to be validated.
In the chapter 6, we find that gold quoted at Paris (ingot and napoleon coin) are less profitable than stocks in the
long-term. Nevertheless, they have the same level of risk than these latters and are four times more risky than
bonds. Contrarily to the Anglo-Saxon literature, we find, in the chapter 7, that gold is not a good hedge against
inflation in France. At the same time, gold quoted at Paris is favorable in the diversification of French portfolios
only in the periods when its price has an upward trend.

Keywords: Paris Gold Market, efficient market hypothesis, risk-return, purchasing power, inflation hedge,
portfolio diversification.

/DERUDWRLUH2UOpDQDLVGH*HVWLRQ/2*
5XHGH%ORLV%32UOpDQV





Thi Hong Van HOANG

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :

histoire et finance

Résumé
La loi monétaire de septembre 1939 interdit la détention, le commerce, l’importation et l’exportation de l’or en
France. Un marché clandestin s’est alors créé en 1941 et fonctionne jusqu’en janvier 1948. La loi du 2 février
1948 a rendu la liberté au commerce de l’or en France. Ainsi, un marché officiel de ce métal précieux est-il ouvert
à la Bourse de Paris. Après 56 ans d’existence, il est fermé en juillet 2004. Depuis cette date, le marché de l’or en
France est un marché de gré à gré où le prix d’équilibre est déterminé par la Compagnie Parisienne de
Réescompte. Malgré cette riche histoire, le marché de l’or à Paris depuis 1941 n’a jamais été étudié
scientifiquement jusqu’à maintenant. Afin de l’explorer, cette thèse est divisée en deux parties distinctes. La
première l’étudie sous l’angle historique. Nous analysons son évolution en le rattachant aux événements de
l’histoire le qualifiant de plusieurs statuts différents : un marché clandestin de 1941 à 1948 (chapitre 1), un marché
réglementé de 1948 à 2004 (chapitres 2 et 3) et un marché de gré à gré de 2004 à 2009 (chapitre 4). La deuxième
partie de la thèse étudie le marché de l’or à Paris sous l’angle financier. Les résultats du chapitre 5 montrent que
l’hypothèse de l’efficience informationnelle du marché parisien de l’or ne semble pas être validée. Dans le
chapitre 6, nous trouvons que l’or coté à Paris (le lingot et la pièce napoléon) est moins rentable à long-terme que
les actions. Cependant, il est aussi risqué que ces dernières et quatre fois plus risqué que les obligations.
Contrairement à la littérature anglo-saxonne, nous trouvons, dans le chapitre 7, que l’or n’est pas un bon moyen de
protection contre l’inflation en France. De même, l’or coté à Paris n’est favorable dans la diversification des
portefeuilles français que durant les périodes où son prix a une tendance haussière.

Mots clés : marché de l’or à Paris, efficience informationnelle, rentabilité-risque, pouvoir d’achat, protection
contre l’inflation, diversification de portefeuille

The Paris Gold Market from 1941 to 2009:
History and Finance
Abstract
The monetary law of September 1939 forbids possession, trade, import and export of gold in France. A
clandestine market was then created in 1941 and operates until January 1948. The law of February 2nd, 1948
turned back the liberty to the gold trade in France. Thus, an official market was opened at the Paris Stock
Exchange. After 56 years of existence, it was closed in July 2004. Since then, the gold market in France is an over
the counter market where price is fixed by the Compagnie Parisienne de Réescompte. In spite of this very rich
history, the Paris Gold Market from 1941 has never been studied scientifically before. In order to explore this
market, our thesis is divided in two distinct parts. The first one concerns the historical analysis. We present the
evolution of the market in parallel with the historical events which describe it by different natures: a clandestine
market from 1941 to 1948 (chapter 1), an official market from 1948 to 2004 (chapters 2 and 3) and an over the
counter market from 2004 until now (chapter 4). The second part of the thesis analyzes the financial aspects of the
Paris gold market. The results of the chapter 5 show that the efficient market hypothesis seems not to be validated.
In the chapter 6, we find that gold quoted at Paris (ingot and napoleon coin) are less profitable than stocks in the
long-term. Nevertheless, they have the same level of risk than these latters and are four times more risky than
bonds. Contrarily to the Anglo-Saxon literature, we find, in the chapter 7, that gold is not a good hedge against
inflation in France. At the same time, gold quoted at Paris is favorable in the diversification of French portfolios
only in the periods when its price has an upward trend.

Keywords: Paris Gold Market, efficient market hypothesis, risk-return, purchasing power, inflation hedge,
portfolio diversification.


/DERUDWRLUH2UOpDQDLVGH*HVWLRQ/2*
5XHGH%ORLV%32UOpDQV


 UNIVERSITÉ D’ORLÉANS

ÉCOLE DOCTORALE DES SCIENCES DE L’HOMME ET DE LA

SOCIETÉ
THÈSE présentée par :

Thi Hong Van HOANG

Date de soutenance : le 6 décembre 2010

pour obtenir le grade de : Docteur de l’université d’Orléans

ès Sciences de Gestion
Discipline : Finance

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :

histoire et finance
ANNEXE – BASE DE DONNEES
THÈSE dirigée par
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans
RAPPORTEURS
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg
PRESIDENT DU JURY
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université de Montpellier 1
Président de l’Association Française de Finance

JURY
Gilbert COLLETAZ Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Raphaël Di MARZIO Gérant de portefeuille, UBGI France
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Philippe PAQUET Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université Montpellier 1
 UNIVERSITÉ D’ORLÉANS

ÉCOLE DOCTORALE DES SCIENCES DE L’HOMME ET DE LA

SOCIETÉ
THÈSE présentée par :

Thi Hong Van HOANG

Date de soutenance : le 6 décembre 2010

pour obtenir le grade de : Docteur de l’université d’Orléans

ès Sciences de Gestion
Discipline : Finance

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :

histoire et finance
ANNEXE – BASE DE DONNEES
THÈSE dirigée par
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans
RAPPORTEURS
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg
PRESIDENT DU JURY
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université de Montpellier 1
Président de l’Association Française de Finance

JURY
Gilbert COLLETAZ Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Raphaël Di MARZIO Gérant de portefeuille, UBGI France
Jean-François GAJEWSKI Professeur, Université de Savoie
Georges GALLAIS-HAMONNO Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Philippe PAQUET Professeur, Université d’Orléans
Patrick ROGER Professeur, Université de Strasbourg
Patrick SENTIS Professeur, Université Montpellier 1
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DYU   GpF   DR€W  
PDL   MDQY   VHSW  
MXLQ   IpYU   RFW  
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DR€W   DYU   GpF  
VHSW   PDL   MDQY  
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QRY   MXLO   PDUV  
GpF   DR€W   DYU  
MDQY   VHSW   PDL  
IpYU   RFW   MXLQ  
PDUV   QRY   MXLO  
DYU   GpF   DR€W  
PDL   MDQY   VHSW  
MXLQ   IpYU   RFW  
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DR€W   DYU   GpF  
VHSW   PDL   MDQY  
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QRY   MXLO   PDUV  
GpF   DR€W   DYU  
MDQY   VHSW   PDL  
IpYU   RFW   MXLQ  
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DYU   GpF   DR€W  
PDL   MDQY   VHSW  
MXLQ   IpYU   RFW  
MXLO   PDUV   QRY  
DR€W   DYU   GpF  
VHSW   PDL   MDQY  
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QRY   MXLO   PDUV  
GpF   DR€W   DYU  
MDQY   VHSW   PDL  
IpYU   RFW   MXLQ  
PDUV   QRY   MXLO  
DYU   GpF   DR€W  
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 9,,QGLFHGHVDFWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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MDQY   VHSW   PDL  
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 9,,QGLFHGHVDFWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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 9,,QGLFHGHVDFWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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 9,,QGLFHGHVDFWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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 9,,QGLFHGHVREOLJDWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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 9,,QGLFHGHVREOLJDWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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MDQY   MXLO   MDQY  
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MDQY   MXLO   MDQY  
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PDUV   VHSW   PDUV  
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 9,,QGLFHGHVREOLJDWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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 9,,QGLFHGHVREOLJDWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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MDQY   MXLO   MDQY  
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MDQY   MXLO   MDQY  
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MDQY   MXLO   MDQY  
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 9,,QGLFHGHVREOLJDWLRQVIUDQoDLVHV


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Thi Hong Van HOANG

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :
histoire et finance

Résumé
La loi monétaire de septembre 1939 interdit la détention, le commerce, l’importation et l’exportation de l’or en
France. Un marché clandestin s’est alors créé en 1941 et fonctionne jusqu’en janvier 1948. La loi du 2 février
1948 a rendu la liberté au commerce de l’or en France. Ainsi, un marché officiel de ce métal précieux est-il
ouvert à la Bourse de Paris. Après 56 ans d’existence, il est fermé en juillet 2004. Depuis cette date, le marché de
l’or en France est un marché de gré à gré où le prix d’équilibre est déterminé par la Compagnie Parisienne de
Réescompte. Malgré cette riche histoire, le marché de l’or à Paris depuis 1941 n’a jamais été étudié
scientifiquement jusqu’à maintenant. Afin de l’explorer, cette thèse est divisée en deux parties distinctes. La
première l’étudie sous l’angle historique. Nous analysons son évolution en le rattachant aux événements de
l’histoire le qualifiant de plusieurs statuts différents : un marché clandestin de 1941 à 1948 (chapitre 1), un
marché réglementé de 1948 à 2004 (chapitres 2 et 3) et un marché de gré à gré de 2004 à 2009 (chapitre 4). La
deuxième partie de la thèse étudie le marché de l’or à Paris sous l’angle financier. Les résultats du chapitre 5
montrent que l’hypothèse de l’efficience informationnelle du marché parisien de l’or ne semble pas être validée.
Dans le chapitre 6, nous trouvons que l’or coté à Paris (le lingot et la pièce napoléon) est moins rentable à long-
terme que les actions. Cependant, il est aussi risqué que ces dernières et quatre fois plus risqué que les
obligations. Contrairement à la littérature anglo-saxonne, nous trouvons, dans le chapitre 7, que l’or n’est pas un
bon moyen de protection contre l’inflation en France. De même, l’or coté à Paris n’est favorable dans la
diversification des portefeuilles français que durant les périodes où son prix a une tendance haussière.

Mots clés : marché de l’or à Paris, efficience informationnelle, rentabilité-risque, pouvoir d’achat, protection
contre l’inflation, diversification de portefeuille

The Paris Gold Market from 1941 to 2009:
History and Finance
Abstract
The monetary law of September 1939 forbids possession, trade, import and export of gold in France. A
clandestine market was then created in 1941 and operates until January 1948. The law of February 2nd, 1948
turned back the liberty to the gold trade in France. Thus, an official market was opened at the Paris Stock
Exchange. After 56 years of existence, it was closed in July 2004. Since then, the gold market in France is an
over the counter market where price is fixed by the Compagnie Parisienne de Réescompte. In spite of this very
rich history, the Paris Gold Market from 1941 has never been studied scientifically before. In order to explore
this market, our thesis is divided in two distinct parts. The first one concerns the historical analysis. We present
the evolution of the market in parallel with the historical events which describe it by different natures: a
clandestine market from 1941 to 1948 (chapter 1), an official market from 1948 to 2004 (chapters 2 and 3) and
an over the counter market from 2004 until now (chapter 4). The second part of the thesis analyzes the financial
aspects of the Paris gold market. The results of the chapter 5 show that the efficient market hypothesis seems not
to be validated. In the chapter 6, we find that gold quoted at Paris (ingot and napoleon coin) are less profitable
than stocks in the long-term. Nevertheless, they have the same level of risk than these latters and are four times
more risky than bonds. Contrarily to the Anglo-Saxon literature, we find, in the chapter 7, that gold is not a good
hedge against inflation in France. At the same time, gold quoted at Paris is favorable in the diversification of
French portfolios only in the periods when its price has an upward trend.

Keywords: Paris Gold Market, efficient market hypothesis, risk-return, purchasing power, inflation hedge,
portfolio diversification.

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Thi Hong Van HOANG

Le marché parisien de l’or de 1941 à 2009 :
histoire et finance

Résumé
La loi monétaire de septembre 1939 interdit la détention, le commerce, l’importation et l’exportation de l’or en
France. Un marché clandestin s’est alors créé en 1941 et fonctionne jusqu’en janvier 1948. La loi du 2 février
1948 a rendu la liberté au commerce de l’or en France. Ainsi, un marché officiel de ce métal précieux est-il
ouvert à la Bourse de Paris. Après 56 ans d’existence, il est fermé en juillet 2004. Depuis cette date, le marché de
l’or en France est un marché de gré à gré où le prix d’équilibre est déterminé par la Compagnie Parisienne de
Réescompte. Malgré cette riche histoire, le marché de l’or à Paris depuis 1941 n’a jamais été étudié
scientifiquement jusqu’à maintenant. Afin de l’explorer, cette thèse est divisée en deux parties distinctes. La
première l’étudie sous l’angle historique. Nous analysons son évolution en le rattachant aux événements de
l’histoire le qualifiant de plusieurs statuts différents : un marché clandestin de 1941 à 1948 (chapitre 1), un
marché réglementé de 1948 à 2004 (chapitres 2 et 3) et un marché de gré à gré de 2004 à 2009 (chapitre 4). La
deuxième partie de la thèse étudie le marché de l’or à Paris sous l’angle financier. Les résultats du chapitre 5
montrent que l’hypothèse de l’efficience informationnelle du marché parisien de l’or ne semble pas être validée.
Dans le chapitre 6, nous trouvons que l’or coté à Paris (le lingot et la pièce napoléon) est moins rentable à long-
terme que les actions. Cependant, il est aussi risqué que ces dernières et quatre fois plus risqué que les
obligations. Contrairement à la littérature anglo-saxonne, nous trouvons, dans le chapitre 7, que l’or n’est pas un
bon moyen de protection contre l’inflation en France. De même, l’or coté à Paris n’est favorable dans la
diversification des portefeuilles français que durant les périodes où son prix a une tendance haussière.

Mots clés : marché de l’or à Paris, efficience informationnelle, rentabilité-risque, pouvoir d’achat, protection
contre l’inflation, diversification de portefeuille

The Paris Gold Market from 1941 to 2009:
History and Finance
Abstract
The monetary law of September 1939 forbids possession, trade, import and export of gold in France. A
clandestine market was then created in 1941 and operates until January 1948. The law of February 2nd, 1948
turned back the liberty to the gold trade in France. Thus, an official market was opened at the Paris Stock
Exchange. After 56 years of existence, it was closed in July 2004. Since then, the gold market in France is an
over the counter market where price is fixed by the Compagnie Parisienne de Réescompte. In spite of this very
rich history, the Paris Gold Market from 1941 has never been studied scientifically before. In order to explore
this market, our thesis is divided in two distinct parts. The first one concerns the historical analysis. We present
the evolution of the market in parallel with the historical events which describe it by different natures: a
clandestine market from 1941 to 1948 (chapter 1), an official market from 1948 to 2004 (chapters 2 and 3) and
an over the counter market from 2004 until now (chapter 4). The second part of the thesis analyzes the financial
aspects of the Paris gold market. The results of the chapter 5 show that the efficient market hypothesis seems not
to be validated. In the chapter 6, we find that gold quoted at Paris (ingot and napoleon coin) are less profitable
than stocks in the long-term. Nevertheless, they have the same level of risk than these latters and are four times
more risky than bonds. Contrarily to the Anglo-Saxon literature, we find, in the chapter 7, that gold is not a good
hedge against inflation in France. At the same time, gold quoted at Paris is favorable in the diversification of
French portfolios only in the periods when its price has an upward trend.

Keywords: Paris Gold Market, efficient market hypothesis, risk-return, purchasing power, inflation hedge,
portfolio diversification.

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