ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE TECHNOLOGY

School of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Department of Water Supply and Environmental Engineering

WATER DISTRIBUTION MODELING

Demand side and non-demand side management of Addis
Ababa
Group-1
Name ID Number
1 ASHENAFI GSR//08
2 G/WAHID ADHANA GSR/1343/08
3 LULIT HABTE GSR/1346/08
4 MESERET GSR//08
5 SISAY TSEDALU GSR//08
6 YIDNEKACHEW GSR//08

Submitted to:Dr. Mebrate T.

Submission date: July 13, 2016
Contents
Description of the Study Area......................................................................................................... 3
General ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Physical characteristics of the city .............................................................................................. 4
Socio-economic structure of the city .......................................................................................... 4
Water supply condition ............................................................................................................... 6
Project Objective ............................................................................................................................. 9
Main Objective............................................................................................................................ 9
Specific Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 9
Non-demand side water supply management ............................................................................... 10
Existing water supply sources ................................................................................................... 10
Proposed water supply sources ................................................................................................. 10
Demand-Side Water Strategies ..................................................................................................... 12
Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 12
Misconceptions that have been maintained or promoted by the ‘new’ water paradigm: ......... 16
A conservationist’s demand-side perspective ........................................................................... 19
A health specialist’s demand-side perspective ......................................................................... 20
A market-economist’s demand-side perspective ...................................................................... 20
Distribution Component............................................................................................................ 25
Water demand forecasting models of urban areas ........................................................................ 28
Background ............................................................................................................................... 28
Trend analysis method .............................................................................................................. 29
Extrapolation of historical data method .................................................................................... 29
Judgmental method ................................................................................................................... 30
Component analysis method ..................................................................................................... 30
Multiple linear and non-linear regression analysis method ...................................................... 31
HOUSING DATA ........................................................................................................................ 32
Cost Estimates............................................................................................................................... 36
Base Year Capital Costs............................................................................................................ 36
Reference ...................................................................................................................................... 37

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Description of the Study Area

General
The study area, Addis Ababa is the capital city of Ethiopia that is located at about 80 7”northern
latitude and 380 45” eastern longitudes. The city is situated at the downstream of the Enteto
Mountain that as a result is having significant elevation differences among different localities.
The present total population of the city is estimated nearly 4 million with an annual growth rate
of 2.08%, while the total area of the city is estimated to be 540 square kilometers. At present
the city is divided in to 10 sub-cities containing 203 kebeles* in total. Nevertheless the water
authority is still using the boundaries of the old Weredas and kebeles. The city Manager that is
accountable to the mayor of the city is responsible to the provision of all the municipal services
and is organized and performs its duties with 11 different offices that have their own legal
entity. The Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA) is a public institution in the
city that is responsible for the supply of potable water and collection, treatment and disposal of
water and sludge for the city.

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Physical characteristics of the city

The average altitude of Addis Ababa is 2408 meters above sea level. The highest peak is found
at Mount Entoto with 2800 meters. The lower part of the Akaki plain has an altitude of 2200.
The city is surrounded by the Entoto massive in the North.
The upper part of the city is characterized by steep slopes with high mountains, flat topped
plateau while the lower part is less steep (UNCHS, 2000).
The city is endowed with numerous streams that start from North West and North East running
towards the South and draining to the Awash River. The most mportant streams and rivers are
the Kebena, the Ginfle, the Bantyiketu, the Buhe, he Akaki and the Kechene rivers (UNCHS,
2000).
The city has a warm temperate and rainy climate. The average monthly maximum temperature
ranges between 21.4ºC in August and 26.8OC in April during and the average monthly minimum
is between 5.8OC in December and 13.2OC in May. The total annual rainfall amount is 1327.7
mm with variations by month between 0 mm in November and December and 285.4 mm in July
(CSA, 2000).
The land use structure of the city shows that 53.87% of the area is a built up area. Out of this
area, 63.6% is devoted to residential use while 17.9%, 10.3% and 7.9% are used for public,
commercial and industrial uses respectively (UNCHS, 2000).

Socio-economic structure of the city

The 1961, 1967 and 1978 population sample survey for Addis Ababa revealed that the
population of Addis Ababa was 0.4, 0.7 and 1.2 million respectively. The 1984 census put the
population of Addis Ababa at 1.4 million while the 1994 census recorded 2.1 million people.
There is an increase of 0.7 million or 50% increase over a decade period. The annual increase
over the period 1984-1994 is 5 % (UNCHS, 2000).

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Migration accounts for a significant portion of the growth of the city. In 1994, 46.4% of the
populations were migrants. In 1999, migrants in Addis Ababa accounted for 46.9%. The
proportion of migrants in 1994 and 1999 has decreased from 55.7% in 1967 and 51.5% in 1984.
The volume of migrants which was 974,839 in 1994 is 2.5 times that of 1967 and 1.3 times that
of 1984. The bulk of migrants in Addis Ababa are long term migrants. The labor force survey
estimated that migrants who have lived in the city for less than 5 years, 5 to 10 years and more
than 10 years account for 18.46%, 20.38% and 61.15% respectively. The main reason for high
migration to the city of Addis Ababa is economic reason as the city enjoys a relatively higher
Concentration of facilities, infrastructure and industries compared with other parts of the
country. For instance it was found out that among the recent migrants to Addis Ababa (those
who lived for less than 5 years), search for work is the highest-ranking reason (35.44%). This
was followed by education (19.89%), accompanying of family (12.12%) and living with relatives
(7.60%). Recent migrants to Addis Ababa revealed that they come both from urban areas
(50.80%) and rural areas (49.19%). Hence urban-urban and rural urban migrations are
important in Addis Ababa (UNCHS, 2000).
Current situational analysis of the city reveals solid evidences about the continued
deteriorations of the economy and the environmental conditions. The standard of living of the
city population is poor and below acceptable standard.Provision of basic facilities such as
housing, potable water, sanitation, energy and health care services are at infancy (City
Government of Addis Ababa, 2004).

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Water supply condition
It is noted that the water demand in Addis Ababa has been effectively suppressed over the last
four decades, as reported by the earlier studies, since supply has failed to fully satisfy demand
with consequent intermittent supplies to large areas. Accordingly, it is not appropriate to use
the recent and existing bulk or consumer level supply information in forecasting demands.
The Urban Water Supply Design Criteria published by the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and
Energy in January 2006 recommends per-capita water demands for the four modes of services
for short and long term planning horizons.

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The water consumption in the different categories varies from branch office to branch office.
For example, areas under Akaki Branch Office, which encompasses all of the Akaki Kaliti Sub
City, consume a small volume of water daily (12,000 m3/d) when compared to the other branch
offices. However, from the total water daily consumption in the area, about 58.65% goes to the
non-domestic customers while the domestic customers, including public tap users, consume
only 41.35%. In other words, the non-domestic consumption in this area is 141.86% of the
domestic consumption. This higher non-domestic water consumption is mainly because Akaki
Kaliti Sub City is a centre for industries of varying types and scales.
The following figure illustrates the varying proportions of Domestic and Non-domestic
consumption experienced across the 8 Branch offices.

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Project Objective

Main Objective

The main objective of the Project is to evaluate the Demand and Non –demand side water
supply management systems in case of ADDIS ABABA.
Taking the main objective as mentioned above, the following specific objectives are expected to
be achieved:

Specific Objectives

- To evaluate the Demand side water supply management

- To evaluate the Non –demand side water supply management.
- The evaluate and compare the total water loss
- To explore the possible causes of water losses and possible solutions
- To explore the possible Demand side water supply management water losses and possible
solutions
- To explore the possible Non –demand side water supply management.
- To explore the possible solutions of Demand side and Non –demand side water supply
management
- To suggest a methodology to support a city water supply authority to identify andreduce water
loss in city water

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Non-demand side water supply management

Addis Ababa city water supply managementis more of interested on development ofnew
facilities and structures are using available sources to meet perceived increasing water needs.
The approach has led to over use of the resources, over capitalization, pollution and other
problems of varying problems. The city is try to in designing water supply sourceswith little
attention to demand determinants, pricing structures and financial policies is not sustainable.

Existing water supply sources

Existing water supply sources serving Addis Ababa are located to the east (Legedadi and Dire
dam) west (Gefersa dam) of the city and ground water sources including Akaki and Legedadi
well fields.

Table 0-1 Existing water supply sources serving Addis Ababa city

Water supply sources Total supply (m3/day)

1 Legedadi and Dire dam 192000
2 Gefersa dam 30000
3 Akaki and Legedadi wells 404000
Total 599000

Proposed water supply sources

The new developments of water resources are located north of Addis Ababa, together with
treatment and transmission facilities. This new development will take place in two phases. The
first phase will supply 364,000m3/day of treated water to the city and the second phase will
supply an additional 290,000m3/day for a total of 654,000m3/day

The surface water component is the largest and most diverse of project program. It is
comprised of six major facilities including:

1 Gerbi dam and reservoir with gross storage volume of 48.5Mm3 and safe yield of 77,000m3/day.
The dam will be located approximately 10 km north of the existing Gefersa dam

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 2 Sibilu darm and reservoir with gross storage volume of 347.7Mm3 and safe yield of
611,500m3/day. The dam will be located approximately 2 km southwest of the town of Chancho
which is 30 km north of Addis Ababa on the Gojam road.
3 Intake structure 1.2 m diameter and 8.2 km long raw water transmission pipeline from Gerbi
reservoir to the treatment plant.
4 Intake structure, raw water pump station and 1.8 m diameter, 11.3 km long transmission
pipeline from Sibilu reservoir to the treatment plant.
5 Wosserbi treatment plant for the water from Gerbi and Sibilu which will be developed in two
stages. The first stage capacity will be sized for the Gerbi supply and half of the Sibilu supply; the
second stage will be sized for the remaining Sibilu supply the treatment plant site is located on
the north side of the Entoto ridge approximately 3 km southwest of the Sululeta
telecommunications station.
6 Lined tunnel 3m diameter, 4.8 km long from the treatment plant through Entoto ridge to convey
the water to a terminal reservoir located near the northern limits of Addis Ababa at Shegolle.

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Demand-Side Water Strategies

Introduction

Demand-side water management is typically presented as part of an integrated approach to

water-resources management, correcting a historic tendency to overemphasis supply-side
investment. Somewhat ironically, demand-side water management itself has come to be
associated with a narrow approach that emphasizes conservation, and fails to address other
demand-side issues. Meanwhile, especially in poor urban settlements, other demand-side
approaches have been receiving increasing attention. This working paper attempts to bring
some of the insights from these other approaches into the framework of demand-side
management.

Demand-side management can be defined as a coordinated set of measures to improve energy,

water or other environmental services by inducing changes at the point of consumption. The
term was coined in the United States in the 1980s, when world energy shortages were in the
headlines, regional water scarcity was a growing concern, and the country’s urban
infrastructure was beginning to fail. Both electric and water utilities were criticized for taking a
‘supply-fix’ approach, and assuming that increasing demands had to be met by increasing
supplies. Advocates of demand-side management argued that what people wanted were
services (e.g. lighting and washing). By increasing end-use efficiency and reducing waste, these
services could be provided using less electricity or water. If only utilities would take a more
balanced approach – went the argument – demand-side measures could be placed on an equal
footing with supply-side measures, both utilities and their consumers could benefit financially,
and scarce resources could be conserved.
Demand-side management did not prove to be as straightforward as some of its early
proponents hoped, but the need for demand-side management is now widely accepted in
international water policy debates. Indeed, there is increasing talk of a global water crisis, and
of better demand-side management as a necessary part of any solution, summarizing the
‘changing water paradigm’, one of the world’s leading water experts recently wrote that:

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 “A reliance on physical solutions continues to dominate traditional planning
approaches, but these solutions are facing increasing opposition. At the same time,
new methods are being developed to meet the demands of growing populations
without requiring major new construction or new large-scale water transfers from
one region to another. More and more water suppliers and planning agencies are
beginning to shift their focus and explore efficiency improvements, implement
options for managing demand, and reallocate water among users to reduce
projected gaps and meet future needs.”
(Gleick 2000a)
The goal of this working paper is to examine the relevance of demand-side water management
to low-income urban settlements, where many households do not have adequate access to safe
water supplies. The conclusion is that demand-side water strategies could play an important
role. The need to move away from a narrow supply-fix approach is just as compelling in poor as
in affluent settings. However, many of the insights, priorities and tools that have come to be
associated with demand-side management are inappropriate to low income settings – they
derive from a conservation perspective, and ignore the health, economic and grass roots
perspectives that tend to be critical in deprived urban areas.

In order to bring together these different perspectives, more attention must be given to:
i. Securing better access to water for the urban poor

Demand-side management in the North focuses on wasteful and excessive consumption of

water. Waste and excess also occur in Southern cities, but under-consumption is usually a more
critical problem in deprived areas. Many households do not consume sufficient water to meet
their basic needs for health. It is not only important to prevent conservation-oriented measures
from further reducing the water consumption of deprived households, but also to implement
demand-side measures that improve access to water, even if (and in some cases especially if)
this increases their consumption.

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ii. Promoting the hygienic use of water
Especially in conditions of poverty, it is important that demand-side management include a
hygiene component. Health is one of the major benefits water can provide, but it depends upon
how the water is used. Users often lack a relevant knowledge of hygiene, and experts in
demand-side management are often ignorant of both hygiene issues and of local conditions in
low-income settlements. Taking health issues seriously will require a major shift in the
approach to demand-side management, but can be seen as an extension of integrated water
resource management.

iii. Empowering deprived groups

One of the goals of demand-side management in low-income areas should also be to give more
influence to those currently deprived of water. The ‘supply-fix’ approach has often favoured
affluent consumers over both future generations and the poor. Orthodox demand-side
management attempts to address the concerns that are particularly relevant to future
generations. Future generations cannot take an active part in designing and implementing
demand management. The urban poor can. To assist deprived urban dwellers, demand-side
management cannot simply rely on finding better means to manipulate the demand for water,
but must help ensure that the residents (including especially women) gain more influence over
water provision and use.

In short, even in low-income settings there are good reasons to concentrate more on the
demand side, but not to prioritize water conservation or rely on expert-led water management.
Indeed, one of the goals of demand-side management in low-income areas could be to prevent
conservation strategies from undermining residents’ entitlements to sufficient water to meet
their basic health and welfare needs, and to increase the involvement of local residents in
driving water provision.
While this could be seen as adding new requirements and conditionality to demand-side
management, it can also be seen as bringing together different strands of a new demand-side
approach to water provision of particular relevance to low income settlements. Many of these
strands have emerged independently of the conservation-oriented demand-side management

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prevalent in the North. Health specialists often argue that the supply-fix approach of most
water utilities neglects the importance of hygiene education, and its potential role in helping
people get the most out of their water supplies. Economists and grass roots activists have been
arguing that the supply-fix approach often fails because it is not sufficiently ‘demand-
responsive’ (though economists and grass roots activists may have very different visions of
what it means to respond to demand). Such arguments are notably absent from the more
conservation-oriented literature on demand-side management (DSM).

In addition to adding these new concerns to demand-side management, it is also important to

reconsider the role of utilities and their planners in demand-side management. Early
proponents of demand-side management tended to be overoptimistic about the extent to
which their goals coincided with those of the utilities (some of the initial successes of demand-
side management relied on a particular combination of regulatory and economic circumstances
that were constraining prices and increasing marginal costs). Adding new public health and
equity goals to demand-side management is likely to further distance the goals of the utilities
from those of demand-side management. Moreover, the water sector has undergone
considerable restructuring since the early 1980s: privatization has been promoted widely and
many public utilities have been made more responsive to commercial incentives. Commercially-
oriented utilities that get their revenue from selling water may favor higher prices, but they do
not necessarily want their customers to find inexpensive ways to save water, achieve better
health, or otherwise improve their welfare by using water more effectively. In short, there is no
reason to assume that utilities have the incentive to engage in demand-side management, and
there may be good reasons to look for alternative organizational homes.

It must also be recognized that in many low-income cities managerial capacity in the water
sector is low (not least because of financial problems), and simply adding new management
burdens is likely to be counterproductive. As such, forms of demand-side management that also
ease overall management burdens are far more likely to be successful than initiatives that give
greater responsibilities to already struggling utilities and government agencies.

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In developing a more integrated approach to demand-side management, it is also important to
debunk some of the misconceptions now being propounded in the name of integrated water
resource management. Advocates of a new approach to water management are fond of
attacking the ‘myths’ of the traditional water-planning approach. Unfortunately, they are
allowing some to be maintained and creating others of their own. Simplifications and
exaggerations are almost inevitable when new approaches are being promoted in the
international policy arena. Some are relatively harmless. Others, however, can be pernicious.
The following misconceptions may help make the case for a more ecologically sensitive water
management, but they are in danger of undermining serious attempts to address water-related
health and welfare problems:

Misconceptions that have been maintained or promoted by the ‘new’ water

paradigm:
1. That the consumption of contaminated water accounts for a large share of the burden of
disease in low-income settlements.

Exaggerated and simplistic claims about the relationship between water and disease abound in
the international literature on water management. It is not uncommon for80% of disease in
‘developing’ countries to be ascribed to the consumption of contaminated water
(Kjellén&McGranahan 1997). One of the few certainties in this highly inexact field is that such
figures are grossly misleading. A more considered estimate of the share of the burden of
disease attributable to poor water supply, sanitation and hygiene is 8% (Murray & Lopez 1996),
of which only a small part is likely to be the result of the consumption of contaminated water.
This 8% still represents an enormous burden, second only to malnutrition in a list of major risk
factors, and more than twice the next in line.1 But these water-related problems are closely
bound up with poverty, and should not be taken to reflect the technical mismanagement of
water resources. Moreover, while exaggerated and simplistic claims may once have been a
means of promoting water projects, they have helped to stifle research and informed debate,
and their exaggeration is no longer stimulating action.

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2. That inadequate access to safe water in urban areas reflects water stress.
The literature on water stress often cites international statistics on water-related diseases and
inadequate access to clean water as evidence that water stress is of critical concern to the poor.
However, there is no discernible relationship between national indicators of water stress and
national indicators of inadequate access to water in urban areas. Moreover, there is
considerable case-specific evidence of cities with plentiful water resources where poor
households do not have adequate access to affordable water, and cities with scarce water
resources where poor households are comparatively well served. In short, there is no reason to
treat current water-related health problems in urban areas as early symptoms of an emerging
crisis of water scarcity.

3. That freeing up water through demand-side conservation provides more water to meet
basic needs.
It is often assumed that water saved in one part of an urban water system will be transferred to
meet the basic needs of deprived residents in another part of the city (or town). This is a more
technical version of the view that inadequate access to safe water reflects city-wide water
scarcity, and is equally misleading. First, even if demand management reduces supply problems
within the piped water system, the households with the most serious water problems are
typically unconnected, and getting them adequate water is likely to require infrastructural
improvements. Second, the reason they are unconnected is likely to be because their needs are
not economically or politically influential, and freeing up water within the piped water system is
unlikely to change this. Third, if conservation is being promoted in response to water supply
problems, then there are likely to be competing demands for the saved water, and quite
possibly a need to reduce water withdrawals. In short, it is extremely unrealistic to assume that
water saving measures will yield water for the currently deprived, unless this is made an explicit
and effective part of a broader water strategy.

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4. That until recently most urban dwellers and policy makers thought of water resources as
unlimited and free.
Wasteful water use is often ascribed to low water prices, themselves grounded in a popular
belief that water is a free good. This ‘popular belief’ is frequently portrayed as a holdover from
times when water really was plentiful – a view no longer appropriate in these times of scarcity.
But cities have been facing water supply problems for centuries, and the view that water is a
free good is exceptional. When claims are made that water should be provided freely to all
citizens (as in the South African Municipal Workers’ Union slogan: “No to privatization! 50 litres
of water per day per person free of charge!” (Bond 2000)), it is normally in a particular political
context. More generally, it is important not to confuse the claim that people have a right to
water with the view that they have the right to unlimited water, that water scarcity is not an
issue, and that there is no opportunity cost associated with using water. There is undoubtedly a
tension between the rights-based approach often adopted by those arguing for more equitable
access to water, and the conservation-oriented approach often adopted by those arguing for
more ecologically sustainable water use, but this tension is not eased by dismissing rights-based
claims out of hand.
5. That water can and should be treated as a ‘normal’ commodity.

The claim that water is an economic good is frequently evoked, and has even been adopted as
an international guiding principle for the water sector. Since economists do not recognise a
category of ‘non-economic’ goods, the claim is not, strictly speaking, very controversial. It is
often taken to imply, however, that water should be priced at its marginal cost, taking into
account the value of water in alternative uses. In situations where inadequate water use is
facilitating the spread of infectious diseases, however, water is not a ‘normal’ commodity in the
sense assumed in arguments for marginal cost pricing. The healthy use of water reduces
negative externalities.2 Healthy use may not be achievable through price mechanisms alone,
but pricing policy should ideally take health externalities (as well as equity, assuming that it is
considered to be of value) into account. Moreover, even piped water poses numerous
challenges for water pricing, and many of the more deprived households do not have piped

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water connections. The cost and difficulty of getting connected is often far more important to
low-income households than the unit price of piped water. What happens to the water after it
leaves the pipes can be equally more important. Problems have undoubtedly arisen due to
economically misconceived water policies, but appropriate policies cannot simply be read out
of introductory economics textbooks.
These misconceptions have not been universally adopted, even within the water crisis
literature. However, the scientific principles being brought to bear on water management are
increasingly those of ecology rather than public health. Willingness to pay, rather than needs or
rights, is increasingly promoted as the appropriate basis for allocating water. Conservation
rather than hygiene or the welfare of the users is increasingly presented as the principal goal of
demand-side interventions. There is a distinct danger that rather than creating a more
integrated form of water management, as most proponents hope, demand-side management
will accentuate conflicts between ecological and human health and welfare goals. It is one thing
to recognize that water is often wasted even in poor areas (leakage in particular is often a
serious problem). It is quite another to treat water resource abuse as the defining
environmental problem in areas where water-related health problems are pervasive.

A conservationist’s demand-side perspective

The phrase “demand-side management” is often taken to refer to measures designed to reduce
water demand without compromising water-related services. It is often simply assumed that a
planner’s purpose in managing water demand is to reduce waste and thereby avoid the need
for expensive infrastructure investment and excessive water withdrawals. As indicated above,
this stands in sharp contrast to the archetypal planner of the sanitary era, who may not have
used the phrase “demand-side management”, but was certainly concerned with managing
water demand – principally so as to improve public health. Demand-side management did not
emerge in opposition to sanitary reform, however.

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A health specialist’s demand-side perspective
From a health perspective, the principal urban water problem is the enormous unexploited
potential for using water more effectively to improve health. This potential lies primarily in the
deprived neighborhoods of poor cities, where people do not have access to enough water of
sufficient quality to meet their basic hygiene requirements. Superficially, at least, this sets the
health agenda in direct opposition to the conservation agenda, which is looking for ways to
reduce the use of water. However, the quantity of water required to meet basic hygiene
requirements is only about 25-50 liters of water per capita per day. Providing 50 more liters of
water per day to an additional billion people would still only come to only about 20 cubic
kilometers a year, which is less than 1% of current global water consumption (Gleick 2000b).
The health and conservation agendas may be pointing in different directions, and using
contradictory narratives to justify their own importance. But in physical terms the increased
water supplies needed to reduce the water-related health burden for the urban poor are
insignificant in the context of the water-wastage that needs to be curbed to reduce water
stress. As long as these supplies can be targeted, meeting basic hygiene requirements need not
conflict with reducing water stress.

A market-economist’s demand-side perspective

Market economists tend to focus on prices and the institutions through which prices are set
rather than the practices that user ought to adopt. They are inclined to assume that consumers
are rational and, if well informed, will demand and use a commodity in ways that best suit their
budgets and highly as their cost. The appropriate price is usually taken to be the “marginal
cost”: the cost of providing an additional unit, ideally including resource depletion and other
environmental costs. Facing this price, the consumer will, again ideally, use water up to the
point at which the marginal benefits from consuming an additional unit are equal to the
marginal costs of providing it needs. The price of water provides an indicator of scarcity, which
both suppliers and consumers can respond to, both serving their own interests and ensuring
that water only goes to uses that are valued at least asThe basic argument here is that getting

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water prices right is central to demand-side management, and would go a long way towards
solving problems of water stress. In the current literature on demand-side management, water
pricing is typically seen as complementing the more technical approach that conservationists
have traditionally taken. It is worth keeping in mind, however, that when the term ‘demand-
side management’ was coined a few decades ago, proponents were openly critical of what they
perceived as market economists’ over-reliance on prices as a means of balancing supplies and
demands. Without the appropriate technologies and demand-side programs, they argued,
price-induced savings would have to be achieved by reducing service levels rather than
providing the same service levels with fewer resources. Economists tended to counter that it
was appropriate prices that would provide the incentives for users and private enterprises to
seek out the appropriate technologies and demand-side measures. This difference in
perspectives is still evident, even if conservationists are more inclined to accept pricing policy as
an important tool of demand management, and economists are more inclined to accept that
other tools of demand management can sometimes help price incentives to operate more
efficiently.

Market economics can also explain, however, how ‘underpriced’ piped water may actually
contribute to ‘overpriced’ water and excessive collection costs in low-income neighborhoods.
Very briefly, if a utility depends on water sales to meet costs, compelling them to charge
excessively low prices for piped water will inhibit the expansion of the water supply system, low
income neighborhoods will remain unconnected (even if residents would be willing to pay the
full economic cost), and resale markets will be undersupplied, leading to higher prices in these
secondary markets. Moreover, economics predicts that efforts to control secondary water
markets by punishing vendors who sell at high prices are likely to reduce supplies still further,
leading to still higher ‘black market’ prices for the urban poor, or increasing collection costs.

There are a number of pricing measures that can be taken to target the urban poor and their
economic needs. Which measures are most suitable depends heavily on local circumstances.
Indeed, the demand-side economics can be quite complex, even if superficially the pricing
options are straightforward. Examples include:

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Free public water taps – Free public water taps can be provided in deprived areas. Water
consumption per capita is likely to remain low unless the taps are actually located in house
compounds (Cairncross&Feachem 1993). Moreover, where free water taps are scarce,
economics predicts that long queues are likely to develop, eventually pushing the effective cost
up to the point where users are indifferent between the public taps and alternatives such as
vended water. If the cost of the alternatives is not demand-dependent, all of the benefits of the
‘free’ supplies may be dissipated. Social norms and pressures can act to prevent excessive
queuing, but may also lead to conflicts (conventional economics does not really explain such
behavior). Alternatively, more formal measures can be taken to prevent excessive queuing and
similar ‘rent dissipating’ behavior, ranging from tying buckets together to create proxy queues,
to hiring tap attendants to charge for water. Generally, however, neither the utility nor the
government is in a good position to regulate such behavior, and much depends on the
organization of the local communities. By providing more taps, the need for such controls is
reduced, and though the quantity of water consumed may increase, it is unlikely to exceed the
levels required to meet health needs. On the other hand, the incentive to prevent wastage at
the tap declines as the marginal cost of water at the tap falls to zero.
Water hydrants for vended water – Water hydrants can be provided with low-priced water, for
resale by water vendors. If vendor water is limited by the system capacity (rather than the
willingness of the vendors to deliver water), economics predicts that even if the market is
competitive the resale price will rise until supply and demand are balanced, regardless of the
vendors’ purchase price. Vendor competition may ensure that no excess profits are being
made, but unless supplies can be increased, this will not reduce prices. Instead, vendors
themselves will engage in queuing or other unproductive but competitive behaviour.
Alternatively, vendors may collude with utility staff and share the rents (or utility staff may
capture all of the rents).

Lifeline tariffs – Water can be provided free or at a very low price to residential users
consuming quantities considered just sufficient to meet basic water needs. This works best
when the urban poor have individual, metered water connections. In principle, minimal
provision can also be supplied using water tanks or water connections that limit consumption

Water Distribution modeling Page 22

through time of day or flow restrictors. Problems develop when most poor households cannot
even afford lifeline connections; since supply restricted lifeline tariffs inhibit sharing.

Increasing block tariffs – With an increasing block tariff, the first block (typically a specified
number of cubic meters of water consumed in a given month) is charged at lower price than
the subsequent block, which is in turn charged at a lower price than the next block, and so on.
Ideally, the blocks would be sized and priced to take into account public health, redistributive,
water resource, and cost recovery concerns, though these goals can rarely be reconciled
perfectly. As a possible compromise, the size of first block could be set at the quantity of water
required to meet water-related health requirements, and priced low to reflect the public health
and redistributive benefits; the last block could be priced at the long run marginal cost; and any
intermediate blocks (and a fixed charge or rebate) could be sized and priced with a view
towards cost recovery and redistributive concerns.10 In practice, this rarely comes even close
to being achieved, and in many low-income cities the first block is well above minimal
requirements, and may even be sufficiently large to cover all water consumption of the
majority of households. In any case, as with the lifeline tariff, if increasing block tariffs are to
assist the urban poor, care must be taken to ensure that very poor residents do not end up
paying higher prices as the result of meter sharing, or insufficient connections and high vendor
prices.

Single volumetric rate with rebate – On the grounds that increasing block tariffs rarely serve
either efficiency or equity goals, Dale Whittington has recently proposed a two part tariff,
consisting of a single volumetric charge combined with a fixed monthly credit or rebate (Boland
& Whittington 2000). The single water rate can be set at the long run marginal cost (or some
approximation thereof), while the rebate can help ensure that purchasing small quantities of
water is not a financial burden. A small minimum fee is also proposed to prevent abuse of the
system. One of the main advantages of this system is its relative simplicity, though it does
require metering, and does not address the problems of those without connections.

Reduced tariffs for ‘low-income’ housing or deprived areas – If deprived areas or housing
types can be identified, connections for these residents can be charged preferential rates.

Water Distribution modeling Page 23

Differentials can be applied to both metered and unmetered households, and even if the urban
poor share connections, they can still receive the preferential rates. Area based systems are
more likely to be effective where residential areas are relatively homogenous. Housing based
systems are more likely to be effective where residential areas are mixed, but certain housing
types are closely associated with poverty. Such systems are more likely to be considered ‘unfair’
by those who pay higher rates, since, unlike with the rising block tariff, households actually face
different tariffs (when different prices emerge from a single tariff this is less likely to be viewed
as discriminatory, even when that is the intention). Moreover, at least some affluent people are
likely to live in ‘low-income’ housing or in deprived areas. It is also important to recognise that
in a great many urban areas the poorest residents do not even have security of tenure, or the
right to obtain water at the standard tariff, let alone receive preferential treatment.
Nevertheless, in cities where there is the political basis for improving services to the poor, this
remains an option.

Reduced connection costs – Economics suggests that reduced connection costs may be more
advantageous to low-income households than reduced water rates. The urban poor often find
it difficult to make large lump-sum payments. They rarely have substantial savings and often
face very high borrowing costs. In some circumstances, a utility is in a good position to provide
the equivalent of low interest loans to newly connected households, paid off through the water
bills, or to cross subsidize connection costs with water bills. This assumes that the billing system
is operating efficiently, and that the utility has the capacity to meet the demand for new
connections.

A choice of tariffs – Utilities can offer a choice of tariffs to individuals or communities. This can
include, for example, pre-payment meters which allow consumers to pay for water in small
amounts in advance, the option of paying for a share of the connection costs in the monthly
bill, or larger blocks for shared connections. This may be administratively difficult, but
overcomes the disadvantages of either assuming that one tariff suits all connections or having
the utility or government decide who should be charged at which tariff. It does, of course, limit

Water Distribution modeling Page 24

the scope for preferential treatment for consumers for whom the public benefits of providing
water are considered higher than their willingness to pay.
Despite these and many other qualifications that economists have examined, the principal
demand-side insight of market economics is typically taken to be that water should be priced at
its ‘full economic cost’. As indicated in the previous chapter, this is what is usually implied by
the admonition to treat water as an economic good. In well-functioning markets, however,
prices also reflect willingness to pay, and provide a signal to suppliers as well as consumers.

On the other hand, as with the conservationist perspective, the demand-side perspective of the
market economist need not focus exclusively on resource issues. Moreover, from an economic
perspective it is important not to treat the demand and supply sides independently. How the
water markets function, the scope for competition, the importance of non-market mechanisms
of water access and distribution (whether based upon government intervention, the actions of
user association, or social norms), and many other critical issues are all suitable topics for water
economics, and influence both water demands and supplies.

Distribution Component
The existing water distribution system in Addis Ababa is divided into several distribution sub-
systems due to the topography of the city. These sub-systems are interconnected to some
extent and supplied from the major sources through separate transfer pipelines.

The existing water transfer and distribution system in Addis Ababa has evolved over several
decades. The most recent significant upgrading took place in the late 1 980s under the Stage II
Water Supply Project in conjunction with the expansion of the Legedadi water treatment plant.

At the implementation of the WSS 111-A project and the commissioning of the new sources of
water at Gerbi and Sibilu, the transfer network must be re-arranged and expanded.

In the future, most water will flow by gravity from the upper, northern area of the city to the
lower, southern area instead of being pumped in the reverse direction. Primary distribution
pipes will also be installed in all sub-systems. This will integrate the delivery and transfer of

Water Distribution modeling Page 25

water from the primary sources to the 31 pressure zones, and improve flow and pressure
within the zones.

The facilities will include pipelines, service reservoirs; pump stations and modifications to
existing works. When completed, this system will be capable of delivering approximately
1,253,000m3/day of water to consumers in all parts of the city, and include the following
facilities:

- Approximately 250 km of transfer pipelines and primary distribution mains, including

appurtenances and tie-ins to existing facilities. The largest transfer pipelines will run from the
proposed Shegolle terminal reservoir to the eastern, central and western parts of the core area
of the city. Most of the distribution mains will extend service into the expansion areas on the
eastern and western parts of the city.
- Thirty one service reservoirs will be installed in the distribution systems to provide peak-
balancing and fire-fighting reserve storage. Thirteen booster-pumping stations will be provided
to service areas of higher elevation located on the slopes of Entoto in the northern side of the
city.
- Existing facilities, which will be required in the future, will be rehabilitated and redundant
facilities will be de-commissioned. Therefore, the overall operational efficiency and reliability of
the system will be improved.

In connection with this design work, a comprehensive computer-based model of the entire
water transfer and primary distribution network for Addis Ababa has been created. This model
is linked with the new digital topographic mapping prepared for WSS 111-A project and with
several databases containing land use, population and water consumption information. This
model provides AAWSA with a powerful tool to monitor and operate the existing water supply
system as well as plan and manage future changes.

Water demand forecasting models of rural areas

Estimating water demand and use at rural areas is problematic due to the lack of measured
data available. Estimates of rural water demand are further complicated by the lack of

Water Distribution modeling Page 26

definitions of the terms used. The seasonality of the regional rainfall in rural areas has a
significant impact on the following:

 The type of water source used e.g. in the rainy season rain water harvesting may be the main
source of water, whereas in the dry season a deep borehole may be the only source of water;
 The security and reliability of the supply;
 The quality of the supply;
 Access to water.

Rural water supply and sanitation schemes are usually typified by the following:

 Lack of physical infrastructure (i.e. a low level of service). For example:

 There is often a lack of a piped water system or a water borne sewerage system;
 Water sources are commonly rivers, hand dug open wells or boreholes;
 Travel times to water sources can be high;
 Operation and maintenance of rural water supply schemes often takes place at a community
level;

Water demand forecasting models

In general estimation of rural water demand is difficult because:

 The majority of rural domestic water supply systems are unmetered;

 Data concerning rural water demand is often expensive and time consuming to collect;
 The level of service provided by the water supply system is often unknown.

There are two main methods of assessing rural water demand. These are:

 Indirect methods:- where the quantity of water consumed is calculated from population levels
and estimated demand levels in terms of per capita consumption;
 Direct methods:- where socio-economic surveys and participatory techniques involving the
relevant stakeholders are used to estimate future water demand.

Water Distribution modeling Page 27

Water demand forecasting models of urban areas

Background
Urban water demand and use can be divided into the following categories:

 Domestic water use and demands including:

 In-house use e.g. drinking, cooking, ablution, sanitation, house cleaning, laundry;
 Out-of-house use (garden watering, swimming pools, livestock, car washing);
 Commercial water use and demands for:
 Shops; Offices; Restaurants; Hotels; Railway stations; Airports; etc
 Institutional water use and demands for:
 Hospitals, Schools, Universities, Government offices, Military establishments,etc
 Unaccounted for water which takes into account the following:
 Unauthorized unmetered water use such as leakage, consumer wastage distribution
losses, illegal connections and metering errors.

Water demand forecasting models

There are a number of forecasting methods that are commonly used to predict future urban
water demands. These include:

Population growth rate method

The water demand is derived from projected population growth figures multiplied by an
estimated per capita water use or demand. The per capita figure may be derived either directly
where water use is divided by the population (normally for a year in which a census has been
undertaken) or from international estimates for average water use, minimum standards or
from selective surveys.

This method has the following advantages:

 It requires a limited amount of data and is relatively inexpensive to carry out;

This method has the following disadvantages:

 Past trends of total water demand are projected into the future

Water Distribution modeling Page 28

  It assumes that the factors influencing demand in the past will remain the same in the future;
 It makes no attempt to understand why water consumption fluctuates over time;
 It relies on data about past water demand that may be poor or non-existent and which may
well under-estimate the actual water requirements of the population.

Trend analysis method

Forecasts based on a trend analysis use time as the independent variable and utilize
mathematically fitted functions to historical water demand and use to forecast future demands.
The method has the following advantages:-

 It is relatively cheap to implement and takes account of past uses;

 It is generally not very demanding in terms of the data that is required
 It can be related to separate water demand and use sectors if the information is available.

The method has the following disadvantages:-

 It assumes the historical water use and demand is representative of future water demand and
use;
 It can produce inaccurate results because the forecast is dependent on the fitting function;
 The method cannot account for the effects of a reduction in unaccounted for water.

Extrapolation of historical data method

It is the function of past water demand versus year. A wide range of methodologies is used for
forecasting water demand and use at a national, regional and local level. Extrapolative
techniques have been used frequently in the past but there is a need to improve forecasts in
line with more comprehensive planning approaches and changing priorities (such as demand
management techniques). Extrapolative techniques suffer from a number of major drawbacks
including:

 Very different predictions can be gained from trends which fit past data equally well;
 The methods assume past trends will continue into the longer-term future;
 Any errors that occur in the forecast do not provide a sound basis for future learning. This is
because the errors occur owing to changes in trends;
 Extrapolation techniques tend to use aggregate demands rather than components of demand.

Water Distribution modeling Page 29

Judgmental method
Judgmental forecasts are based on personal or group knowledge. This methods useful in
conjunction with other methods. Judgmental forecasts have a number of disadvantages in that
they are subject to a number of biases that may add to or filter existing knowledge and thus
effect the overall forecast. These biases can be classified as follows:

 Professional biases : the profession of a person may influence their judgment e.g. professionals
who are used to supply oriented solutions may produce forecasts greatly in excess of
professionals who look at demand management issues. Different professions may also use
different methods and data;
 Spatial and project biases: the forecasts may be based on areas that have common factors (e.g.
accessibility) and these areas may not be representative;
 Person biases: the stakeholders interviewed and assessed to determine demand forecasts may
in some cases overestimate their needs to ensure supplies under extreme conditions;
 Seasonal and climatic biases: judgments may have been made during untypical dry or wet
periods.

Component analysis method

The component analysis technique allows estimates of water use to be based upon an
individual component, e.g. household appliances, industrial machinery, crop and the extent of
usage or production of that individual component.

The component method has the following advantages:

 It can be useful in determining the effect of changing uses and production technologies on
overall water use;
 It can be used to identify key areas of use, predict areas of use which may increase or decrease
and how these may affect the total water use.

The component method has the following disadvantages:

 It requires a large amount of data;

 The analysis required is detailed;

Water Distribution modeling Page 30

  Representative surveys to collect the relevant information needed to carry out the analysis can
be costly;
 The method may not produce reliable results.

Multiple linear and non-linear regression analysis method

Multiple linear or non-linear regression analysis can be used to relate water use to the various
parameters such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), tariff levels or population levels. The main
disadvantage of this method is that it is time consuming to set up multi-variable relationships
and it requires large data sets to produce a reliable relationship. It is not recommended to use
these methods for the forecasting of the future urban water demand (Billings, 2008).

Water Distribution modeling Page 31

HOUSING DATA

Type of Toilet Facility

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All Flush Flush VIP VIP Pit Pit

Housing No Toilet Toilet, Toilet, Latrine, Latrine, Latrine, Latrine,
Sub City Units Facility Private Shared Private Shared Private Shared
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628986
CITY ADMINISTRATION
90206 58123 35684 28903 95520 62009 258541

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45751CITY 9949 1743 1531 1950 5700 5091 19787
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75080 10424
CITY 8569 4606 4429 9191 8027 29834
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93334 CITY
14018 7586 2985 6470 9165 16220 36890
GULELE-SUB CITY
57840 8827 3215 2524 1937 9341 5283 26713
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44351 5431 1778 2907 1166 9930 2273 20866
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52584 5096 5701 3722 1606 11360 2827 22272
ARADA-SUB CITY
47364 4426 3829 3809 2008 12168 2703 18421
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49041 CITY6232 1780 3235 1558 10425 2564 23247
YEKA-SUB CITY
87347 13124 6686 4403 3492 11688 11110 36844
BOLE-SUB CITY
76297 12679 17236 5963 4288 6553 5910 23668

Table 1 Housing Units of Sub Cities by Type of Housing Unit: 1999e.c

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Type of Housing Unit
All ---------------------------------------------------
Geographical
Housing
Area Units Conventional
Improvised Mobile Others
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628986
CITY ADMINISTRATION
612071 16416 382 117

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45749CITY 44367 1361 21 -
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75079 72859
CITY 2188 27 5
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93333 CITY
90386 2824 91 32
GULELE-SUB CITY
57839 56619 1194 16 10
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44351 43158 1145 43 5
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52583 51440 1016 111 16
ARADA-SUB CITY
47364 46223 1126 5 10
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49043 CITY
48220 790 22 11
YEKA-SUB CITY
87346 85539 1780 16 11
BOLE-SUB CITY
76299 73259 2992 32 16

Water Distribution modeling Page 32

 Table 2 Housing Units of Sub Cities by Source of Drinking Water: 1999e.c
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source of Drinking Water
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All Tap in Tap in Protected UnprotectedRiver/
Housing Tap Inside Compound,Compound,Tap OutsideW ell or Well or Lake/
Sub City Units the House Private Shared Compoud Spring Spring Pond
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628985
CITY ADMINISTRATION
36663 162861 236223 178640 6022 6855 1721

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45750CITY 1404 10653 17832 14574 302 381 604
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75079 CITY
3882 19073 34853 15443 584 788 456
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93333 CITY
3946 25266 31559 29180 1745 1562 75
GULELE-SUB CITY
57839 2183 14911 25194 13812 723 953 63
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44351 2289 12086 14855 15110 11 - -
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52582 4232 13055 21198 14086 11 - -
ARADA-SUB CITY
47365 3762 12640 16060 14882 16 5-
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49042 CITY2483 13769 11020 21727 38 - 5
YEKA-SUB CITY
87345 3931 21569 37082 20599 2183 1690 291
BOLE-SUB CITY
76299 8550 19838 26571 19227 411 1475 227

Water Distribution modeling Page 33

 Table 3 Housing Units of Sub Cities by Type of Toilet Facility: 1999e.c

Type of Toilet Facility

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All Flush Flush VIP VIP Pit Pit

Housing No Toilet Toilet, Toilet, Latrine, Latrine, Latrine, Latrine,
Sub City Units Facility Private Shared Private Shared Private Shared
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628986
CITY ADMINISTRATION
90206 58123 35684 28903 95520 62009 258541

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45751CITY 9949 1743 1531 1950 5700 5091 19787
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75080 10424
CITY 8569 4606 4429 9191 8027 29834
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93334 CITY
14018 7586 2985 6470 9165 16220 36890
GULELE-SUB CITY
57840 8827 3215 2524 1937 9341 5283 26713
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44351 5431 1778 2907 1166 9930 2273 20866
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52584 5096 5701 3722 1606 11360 2827 22272
ARADA-SUB CITY
47364 4426 3829 3809 2008 12168 2703 18421
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49041 CITY6232 1780 3235 1558 10425 2564 23247
YEKA-SUB CITY
87347 13124 6686 4403 3492 11688 11110 36844
BOLE-SUB CITY
76297 12679 17236 5963 4288 6553 5910 23668

Table 8.12 Housing Units of Sub Cities by Type of Kitchen: 1999e.c

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Type of Kitchen
---------------------------------------------------------------
Traditionl Traditionl Modern Modern
All Kitchen Kitchen Kitchen Kitchen
Housing No Inside the Outside theInside the Outside the
Sub City Units Kitchen Housing Unit
Housing Unit
Housing Unit
Housing Unit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628985
CITY ADMINISTRATION
126725 41259 403985 40722 16294

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45749CITY 8439 2511 32368 1361 1070
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75079 13893
CITY 4204 49508 5115 2359
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93334 CITY
16048 6266 62462 5557 3001
GULELE-SUB CITY
57840 8676 4461 41849 2100 754
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44352 12012 3642 26360 1507 831
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52582 13776 3727 29757 4264 1058
ARADA-SUB CITY
47364 12614 3300 28067 2646 737
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49042 CITY
11426 3327 32612 1114 563
YEKA-SUB CITY
87346 14681 5012 60972 4721 1960
BOLE-SUB CITY
76298 15161 4809 40030 12337 3961

Water Distribution modeling Page 34

Table 8.14 Housing Units of Sub Cities by Type of Bathing Facility: 1999e.c
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Type of Bathing Facility
------------------------------------------------------------------
All Room for
Geographical
Housing No BathingBathtub, Bathtub, Shower, Shower, Bathing,
Area Units Facility Private Shared Private Shared Vacant
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628987
CITY ADMINISTRATION
510639 29169 6695 49209 21074 12201

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45750CITY 40940 805 270 1955 932 848
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75079 57261
CITY 3839 1019 7314 4027 1619
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93333 CITY
76228 3774 709 7205 1831 3586
GULELE-SUB CITY
57839 49300 2110 565 3257 1806 801
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44352 39485 1198 309 1869 1065 426
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52581 41285 3432 821 4095 2543 405
ARADA-SUB CITY
47365 40100 1993 498 3259 1069 446
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49042 CITY
44660 1060 292 1726 779 525
YEKA-SUB CITY
87346 72490 3703 784 6019 2734 1616
BOLE-SUB CITY
76299 48890 7254 1428 12511 4288 1928

Table 8.17 Housing Units of Sub Cities by Type of Waste Disposal: 1999e.c
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Type of Waste Disposal
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Collected Collected
All by by Private Open Space/
Housing Municipality
Establishments/
Behind the Dump in Burn/
Sub City Units Individuals Housnig Unit
River Bury Other
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ADDIS ABABA
628986
CITY ADMINISTRATION
213925 223723 36512 72789 77531 4506

AKAKI KALITY-SUB
45751CITY 20062 7242 6294 2591 9207 355
NEFAS SILK-LAFTO-SUB
75079 17303
CITY 32017 5072 6751 13239 697
KOLFE KERANIYO-SUB
93333 CITY
26415 28724 6550 15038 15747 859
GULELE-SUB CITY
57839 28414 12320 3058 10011 3827 209
LIDETA-SUB CITY
44351 23437 13710 596 5170 1081 357
KIRKOS-SUB CITY
52582 19851 27241 432 3558 1263 237
ARADA-SUB CITY
47364 21399 19645 643 4245 1173 259
ADDIS KETEMA-SUB
49042 CITY
18546 20623 536 8331 768 238
YEKA-SUB CITY
87346 26761 23778 7094 8313 20817 583
BOLE-SUB CITY
76298 11737 38423 6237 8781 10409 711

Water Distribution modeling Page 35

Cost Estimates

Base Year Capital Costs

Preliminary estimates of capital costs for the construction of the WSS 111-A project have been
prepared. Quantities have been estimated from the designs currently being prepared. Unit
prices have been calculated on the basis of 1996 costs obtained from manufacturers and
suppliers or from general cost indices applicable to particular types of construction.

The breakdown between local and foreign currency has not yet been determined. However, the
foreign cost component for projects of this type in Ethiopia is typically in the range of 60-80
percent.

The preliminary estimates prepared to date indicate the following capital costs:

- Ground Water Component =156 Million Birr

- Surface Water Component =1,390 Million Birr (Excluding EEPCO power supply)
- Distribution Network Component =588 Million Birr
- Socio-Economic and Environmental Protection, Enhancement & Mitigation 186 Million Birr

Project Total = 2,320 Million Birr.

A pretender estimate of costs will be available after the designs have been completed.

Water Distribution modeling Page 36

Reference

The article appears in the publication of the EACE (Ethiopian Association of Civil Engineers) who
owns the copyright. All due acknowledgements and copyright belong to EACE (POBox 20930,
Code 1000, Addis Ababa). EACE Bulletin Vol 1, No 1, 1998

Faisalabad context, International Institute for Environment and Development, London.

Baumann, D. D. & Boland, J. J. 1998, "The Case for Managing Urban Water," in Urban Water
Demand Management and Planning, D. D. Baumann, J. J. Boland, & W. M. Hanemann (eds),
McGraw-Hill, New York, pp. 1-30.

Baumann, D. D., Boland, J. J., &Hanemann, W. M. (eds) 1998, Urban Water Demand
Management and Planning, McGraw-Hill, New York.

Black, M. 1998, Learning What Works: A 20 Year Retrospective View on International Water and
Sanitation Cooperation, UNDP-World Bank Water and Sanitation Program, Washington DC.

Boland, J. J. & Whittington, D. 2000, "The Political Economy of Increasing Block Tariffs in
Developing Countries: Increasing Block Tariffs versus Uniform Price with Rebate," in The
Political Economy of Water Pricing Reforms, A. Dinar (ed), Oxford University Press, New York,
pp. 215-236.

Bond, P. 2000, Cities of Gold, Townships of Coal, Africa World Press, Trenton, N.J.

Briscoe, J. & Garn, H. A. 1995, "Financing water supply and sanitation under Agenda 21",
Natural Resources Forum, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 59-70.

Water Distribution modeling Page 37