April / May 2017

Online Edition

THE IMPACTPRO
REVOLUTION
HOW TO
C R U S H
THE TRIFECTA
PLUS
HORSES TO FOLLOW
EDUCATING THE PUNTER

AUSTRALIA’S FAVOURITE RACING MAGAZINE

 AUSTRALIA’S FAVOURITE RACING MAGAZINE

Published by: Equestrian Publishing Pty Ltd ABN 18 106 237 199
PO BOX 614, Roseville, NSW 2069 April / May 2017
email: sales@equest.com.au
Online Edition Vol. 31, No. 282

Since 1985 The Editor Says

Who else but the mighty Winx could we have on this issue’s front
Publisher cover? She’s now the best racehorse on turf in the world and
Hugh Stanley
there’s talk of a clash with the American dirt champion Arrogate
Editor to decide which of them can be hailed as the all-round world
Brian Blackwell champion. It would be great if such a battle happens.

Contributing Photograher Cover Photo: Winx - by Steve Hart

Steve Hart

Layout Design
David Blackwell
Contents
Senior Contributors 02 CONTENTS & THE EDITOR SAYS
Don Matthews Brian Blackwell
Clive Allcock
03 The Trifecta Mystery / The ImpactPro Effect
Contributors/Columnists Mark Merrick & Brian Blackwell
Jon Hudson
Rick Roberts 1 1 Best of the Daily Racenotes
Neil Franklyn Practical Punting
Richard Hartley Jnr
PB King 1 2 Educating the Punter
Michael Kemp The Optimist
Philip Roy
Martin Dowling 1 4 Plan of the Month
Roman Kozlovski The Optimist
practicalpunting.com.au 1 5 Clive of PPM
sales@equest.com.au Clive Allcock
Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited
except by written permission of the publisher.
Whilst past results can indicate a strong and
reliable method, turf speculation cannot be
guaranteed for future performance. The company
therefore cannot provide any guarantees or
warranties against fulfilment of future profits.

Talk about the trifecta and any group of
punters will have widely varying views
on its value in the betting scheme of
things.
Most will probably say there’s not much Value in it any
more, compared with the early days of its inception.
That’s true to some extent. Punters have so much more
information available that the trifecta is a bit more beat-
able than it once might have been.
And then there is the biggest impact of all - percentage
FEATURE
THE TRIFECTA MYSTERY
with Mark Merrick
There are many problems associated with beating the
trifecta. Punters probably don’t realise the task they are
taking on when they tackle this bet.
Question 1:
Can you predict the 1-2-3 finishing order?
Question 2:
Can you overcome the huge tote take (say
around 20 per cent)?
Most punters only concern themselves with the first
question without considering the second. They bet the
trifecta because it’s there, and they’ll try anything to cash
a ticket with little thought as to what the likely payout will
be.
There’s a simple rule from the professional exotics bet-
tors on this matter. It’s this: bet only when you perceive
some value in the race.
If your analysis of a race brings you back to the four rul-
ing favourites, then there’s no value to be found. If your
conclusions are the same as the public’s, why bother to
bet?
It’s the old story. If you don’t have an edge then it’s no
bet, and this applies not only to win bets but to trifectas
as well. Long-term, you need to take into account what
sort of return you are looking at with your bet.
What do you have to do in order to put yourself into a
Practical Punting Magazine Page 3
staking. This allows you to bet a large number of combi-
nations and accept a proportion of the dividend. Small-
bet punters love it.
They can take combinations that amount to say, $150
and only decided to be $15, so they are looking at 10%
of any dividend. They are happy with that - although on
many occasions to bet turns out a loser when the divi-
dend in small.
My colleague Mark Merrick looked at the trifecta and
its problems in an aricle in Practical Punting magazine
some years ago. Drawing on material by the US profes-
sional Barry Meadow, Mark clearly outlined key aspects
of the trifecta as a betting medium. This is his article:
“It’s the old story. If you don’t have an
edge then it’s no bet, and this applies
not only to win bets but to trifectas as
well.”
potentially profitable situation, not just on one race but
over a whole series of bets annually? Barry Meadow,
who we know is a tremendously successful punter, says
the following: “Among the worst plays you can make,
and among the most common, is boxing the top three
favourites.
“Jim Cramer of Handicapper’s Data Warehouse sur-
veyed 146,617 trifecta races (the largest ever undertak-
en) and determined that had you boxed the top three
favourites you would have collected 10.5 per cent of the
time and had a horrendous Return On Investment (ROI)
of just 0.63c.
“This loss of 37 cents per dollar far exceeds the tote
take.”
CONTINUED ON PAGE 4
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CONTINUED FROM PAGE 3
Meadow is quick to point out, though, that going nutsy
in the other direction is likely to provide a worse result.
In the 69,936 races of nine runners or more, boxing the
7th/8th/9th in the market yielded exactly 44 winning
bets for a return of 0.33 cents per dollar.
Meadow adds: “The essential problems when studying
trifectas are that no matter what combination you’re
looking at, it’s going to have a low hit rate; even the
combination of favourite 1st, second favourite 2nd and
third choice 3rd hits less than 3 per cent of the time.
“Looking solely at the 2,323 races where the favourite
won, the second choice was 2nd and the fifth choice
was 3rd, the payoffs yielded from a low $8.00 to a high
of $13,359.80. The standard deviation is so huge that a
study of 10,000 trifecta results is just about useless.”
Meadow, of course, is referring to US trifecta payouts
but I think we can pretty much assume that much the
same stats would turn up in Australia.
“Structuring a ticket is crucial to success in the trifecta,”
says Meadow. “Simply playing the obvious horses, or
using everybody with everybody and hoping for a bomb,
won’t do it. You’ll have to key, but just as an exacta with
the favourite over the second choice pleases nobody, a
trifecta with the obvious horses won’t get you the mon-
ey.
“Generally, you’ll need to get rid of the favourite or the
second choice to have a shot at a decent payoff. Jim
Cramer’s large survey found that trifectas that included
the favourite were bad bets.”
Meadow says: “On average, the favourite will be on
two-thirds of all tickets bought while the second choice
will be on half the tickets. If they both come in, chances
are good you won’t be getting much of an edge. With
at least one of them out, though, which happens most
of the time, you’ll at least be playing against the crowd’s
picks.” --
DO NOT USE THE FAVOURITE IN THE 3RD
POSITION.
While the public’s top choice wins about 33 per cent of
the time, it runs 3rd only about 14 per cent of the time.
For sure, says Meadow, getting the favourite home 3rd
will kill what would otherwise be a decent trifecta payoff.
Practical Punting Magazine
“Forget that 14 per cent chance for a bad payoff and use
the money to include some marginal horses who can
help you, or keep the cash in your pocket,” says Mead-
ow.
Meadow, and other experts and professionals, insist you
need to key (banker) at least one horse in a trifecta bet.
If you can’t, skip the race.
Meadow explains: “Whatever you do, you will normally
be much better off bankering a runner instead of boxing
and wheeling everything. This might mean one horse to
win, or one horse for 1st/2nd, or two horses for 1st and
so on.
“I have at times bankered longshots to run 3rd rather
than using them in all three slots; for 2nd, I’ll play them
in exactas and for 1st, I’ll bet them to win, maximising the
slot where they land.” --
SOME HORSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO FINISH
2ND OR 3RD THAN WIN.
It is precisely the possibility, says Meadow, that some
no-chance plodder will skulk his way into 3rd spot that
makes the trifecta such an exciting bet. He adds: “For
the two-hole, you can use horses you don’t think can
win, and you can use horses you don’t think can reach
the exacta in the third spot. You don’t have to eliminate
non-win contenders from the other spots, particularly
from the 3rd spot. --
ELIMINATE HORSES WHO WILL BE OVERBET
AND THOSE THAT ARE TOO SLOW.
Punters should always be looking to cut costs when
backing trifectas. This means patience and skill when
doing your form analysis. To cut costs you will need to
get rid of certain horses. Barry Meadow reckons it’s
always best to eliminate the favourite or the second fa-
vourite. He rarely plays the bet unless he can do this.
It’s also good, he advises, to toss out slow horses; that
is, no matter how the race pans out, they don’t figure to
get within six lengths of the top-rated horse. Occasion-
ally, these “slugs” will fall in at 40/1 but for the most part
you are better off concentrating on horses with a legiti-
mate chance and not simply using any runner with legs.
CONTINUED ON PAGE 5
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CONTINUED FROM PAGE 4
BE FLEXIBLE IN YOUR TRIFECTA
STRATEGIES.
Costs can escalate rapidly in the trifecta. Bankering one
horse with seven others to run 2nd and 3rd will cost $42
for $1 units (1x7x6). If you wanted to chase higher mul-
tiples, one horse as banker with 10 others will set you
back $90 (1x10x9).
My personal preference is ALWAYS to use a banker to
win. And the banker needs to be a runner that will not
start the favourite, or even the second favourite, though
often this cannot be avoided if betting moves take a
morning line 8/1 chance into 3/1 etc.
If I think I cannot secure 2nd and 3rd within seven other
runners, I’ll give the race away as a betting proposition. I
think $42 is enough to bet on a trifecta, particularly tak-
ing a long term approach.
The more you bet, the more you need to win over 12
months. If you can keep your stake down to a modest
sum and still hit good divvies then that’s the way to go.
Think very carefully about the number of races you bet.
Remember that you always want to chuck out the favou-
rite. That’s your starting point, your #1 strategy, because
you are seeking value returns.
Often it’s difficult to think of the favourite not running a
placing, but many times they don’t, and it’s in these in-
stances that your strategy is in a position to pay off big.
The trifecta is a tough challenge. Even in small fields it
can be hard to strike a trifecta that’s worth taking. When
you do bet, ensure you have SENSIBLE value on your
side, not just a wild pitch at value by throwing in useless
longshots. Your banker has to possess a potent win-
ning chance. It must be at good odds, at least 4/1 in the
morning market. You must be sure the favourite can be
risked.
This strategy will enable you to hit some really BIG re-
turns which then will enable you to have the chance to
make long-term gains on the trifecta. It takes time and
commonsense to play the strategy but it can be very
rewarding.
Practical Punting Magazine
Useful thoughts, indeed, on the entire trifecta
spectrum, Hard to argue with the rationale.
What if we could simplify trifecta betting? Take it from
picking 3 likely placegetters to just two - and give our-
selves a very good chance of emerging with a long-term
profit?
What do I mean by ‘just two’ likely placegetters? Well,
the staking is the key.
The idea is to pick the quinella. If you land that then you
land the trifecta dividend.
That’s because you can have the entire remaining Field
going for you to fill the 3rd position.
As a plan of attack, the staking is not new. However, it is
universally ignored.
I asked a friend who has TAB experience over 20 years
and he says that only a small percentage of punters use
the ‘Field for 3rd’ approach.
Don’t ask me why. Most punters, it seems, prefer to just
‘box’ 3 choices for $6 - an approach that will return a
divvie every now and then but not big enough to keep
you in the black.
The ‘pick the quinella’ and then take the Field for 3rd
offers you a real fighting chance of emerging a dollar
winner provided your selections are sensible.
Laid out clearly the bet is:
A-B-Field
B-A-Field
Therefore, if you have a field of 12 runners, you have A
and B going for you and if they come up 1st or 2nd (in
any order) you have the other 10 runners to fill 3rd - and
what you hope for is that a longshot gets up!
It happens more times than you’d probably guess.
How much would that bet cost? Only $20. It’s A into B
into 10, and B into A into 10.
The maximum you would ever need to outlay would be
in a 24-horse field.
The AB-BA-Field bet would cost you $44. Mostly,
though, your betting will on races with, say, 14 or fewer
CONTINUED ON PAGE 6
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CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
runners.
With 14 runners, the bet would cost you only $24. A field
of, say, 9 runners would cost you only $14.
This, then, is the attack. Two horses in the right order
ENSURES that you land the trifecta.
It’s as simple as that.
Not that finding the 1st and 2nd in any race can be con-
sidered an easy task. It isn’t. Racing is fraught with peril
for the over-confident (and the under-confident!). It is
packed with the capacity to ruin the best of dreams, the
cleverest of tactics, the best horses, the best riders.
Each race is a mystery. You need to be a detective to
unravel the mystery. You look for clues, you probe for
stable intentions, you seek out the angle that few others
will nail.
Depending on your individual skills, you will make a
good or poor job of finding those quinella horses.
When you do, you want to maximise your success by hit-
ting the trifecta and that’s where the AB-BA-Field trifecta
comes into its own.
You get the quinella pair - you get the trifecta.
How, then, to achieve the best possible outcomes? You
decid to have a crack with the staking plan and you
know you need to be at your very best to make it a suc-
cess.
THIS IS WHERE THE ‘IMPACTPRO’
RATINGS COME INTO THE PICTURE.
Let me tell you something about ImpactPro Ratings.
They have been available for more than 20 years for
subscribers to the Practical Punting Daily Club, an off-
shoot of Practical Punting magazine (founded 1985).
They have proven themselves as winner-finders for all
those years.
They rarely have a bad day - though admittedly it does
happen but usually on days when the form seems to go
haywire for everyone!
The important thing about ImpactPro is that it regularly
lands the 1st and 2nd placegetters with its top two selec-
tions. This means that it’s a trifecta gem.
Practical Punting Magazine
In all my years of assessing races in Australia, and over-
seas, the power of the ImpactPro ratings in the exotics
hasn’t been bettered.
IT’S THE CORNERSTONE OF THE TRIFECTA ATTACK
THAT WILL GIVE YOU EVERY POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
WINNING.
Impactpro doesn’t work on every race. We carefully
choose the races on which they are operated each day.
In fact, we are helped by the fact that the computer
program itself triggers a ‘good betting race’ signal as it
produces each day’s assessed chances.
Usually, no more than 7 or 8 races will be assessed and
published on the PPD Club website pages (www.practi-
calpunting.com.au).
Only 3 horses are rated and each is given an assessed
true price. This cane sometimes point the way to run-
ners that are over the odds (overlays).
There are 2 ways to use the ratings for the approach I
am recommending.
They are:
(a) top selection and second selection for 1st and 2nd.
Field for 3rd.
(b) Top selection and third selection for 1st and 2nd.
Field for 3rd.
I usually check out each race and assess what to do. Of-
ten, the odds shown in the morning market indicate that
there won’t be much value in a trifecta bet. Other times,
it’s easy to spot those races where a smokey is rated
and can give the trifecta a real boost.
Eighty per cent of the time I will use approach (a). Occa-
sionally, I’ll use both for a race if I think the likelym divi-
dend will make it worthwhile.
But, right now, let’s concentrate on the (a) approach. I’ll
give you a quick rundown on some recent collects. As I
write this, in late February, it’s the day after an excellent
run of winning trifectas.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 26
Eight races were assessed over 3 meetings - two at
Nowra, four at Ballarat and two at Taree.
The Nowra races produced 2 big collects - one for the
(a) approach and the other for the (b) approach.
CONTINUED ON PAGE 7
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Race 7 (10 runners) Now here’s a quick rundown of some of the many tri-
fecta strikes over the last few months, all echieved with
CELTIC DIAMOND 5/2....1st $8.30 either the (a) or (b) approaches:
Axion 7/2...2nd
Queanbeyan R6: (10 runners)
Quinella $16.40, Exacta $45.10. TRIFECTA $382.20 for
MIDNIGHT OBSESSION 10/9....1st $2.60
$16 bet.
Uncle Gerry 6/1...
* The 3rd placegetter was Eerised $8.00.
Quinella $46.00, Exacta $98.90. TRIFECTA $637 for $16
Race 6 at Nowra saw a $163.20 trifecta return for a bet
bet.
of $18 linking the top selection KAWAKINI 1st $4.60
with the third pick Cosmic Rush (2nd). Cowra R6: (10 runners)
At Taree, there was the biggest return of the day. Denman Flyer 3/1...2nd

Race 8 (13 runners) HU HIT HU 4/1...1st $9.00

GADFLY 2/1...1st $4.60 Quinella $20.70, Exacta $46.80. TRIFECTA $979 for $16
bet.
I Wanna Be A Jeep 2nd
Randwick R5: (9 runners)
Quinella $15.90, Exacta $47.70. TRIFECTA $612.80 for
$22 bet. LE ROMAIN 5/2...1st $4.30

* The 3rd placegetter was Unnamed Strategy $21.00. Big Money 2nd

The Ballarat races didn’t offer much value but 2 of the Quinella $27.20, Exacta $46.20. TRIFECTA $389.60 for
four races produced winning trifectas from the (a) ap- $14 bet.
proach - paying $11.90 (for $10 bet) and $40.70 (for $6 Werribee R8: (11 runners)
bet).
EOLANDE 2/1...1st $4.00
So that’s just one day on this amazing roller-coaster. Groote Eylandt 2nd
The results are enough in themselves to throw light
on the huge potential for punters - especially those Quinella $7.90, Exacta $17.70. TRIFECTA $132.80 for $18
punters who have a modest bank. bet.

Now let’s look at another recent day’s action (re- Randwick R2: (10 runners)
member, all the selections shown in this book were Bye See 11/4...2nd
listed on the PPD Club members’ pages - they hav-
en’t been made up after the races! I THOUGHT SO 4/1...1st $2.50
Quinella $15.40, Exacta $22.30. TRIFECTA $621.60 for
$16 bet.
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 20 Pakenham R6: (10 runners)
CURVANO 7/4...1st $2.70
GRAFTON Race 5 (10 runners)
Venator 2nd
Noble Ethics 9/4...2nd
Quinella $7.50, Exacxta $ 12.30. TRIFECTA $233.20
DEPARTURE TAX 4/1....1st $14.30 for $16 bet.
Quinella $17.90, Exacta $52.70; TRIFECTA Pakenham R7: (12 runners)
$1012.60 for $16 bet.
* Three other races were assessed at Grafton and
the 8th race produced an $80.50 trrifecta for the (b) CONTINUED ON PAGE 8
approach for a bet of $24.

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 Star Fest 2nd
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 7 ABLE CHAP 1st $46.00
Quinella $100.90, Exacta $270.30. TRIFECTA $1001.60
Sunday Pray 2/1....2nd for $20 bet.
CAMBODIAN PRINCE 5/1...1st $3.60 Cranbourne R8: (7 runners)
Quinella $10.10, Exacta $14.20. TRIFECTA $201.30 for Erector 2nd
$20 bet
FALIKA 5/1...1st $4.10
Doomben R6: (12 runners)
Quinella $5.20, Exacta $12.70. TRIFECTA $204.40 for
DON’T TELL MAMA 2/1...1st $3.20 $10 bet.
Passionflower 2nd Gosford R3: (11 runners)
Quinella $9.10, Exacta $13.60. TRIFECTA $183.10 for $20 KASHARN 7/2...1st $8.60
bet.
Fashion Sniptz 2nd
Moe R7: (7 runners)
Quinella $25.30m Exacta $62.80. TRIFECTA $308.50
HOLY HEART 3/1...1ST $13.30 for $18 bet.
She’ll Strykeya 2nd Benalla R7: (13 runners)
Quinella $21.00, Exacta $53.70. TRIFECTA $325 for $10 Vantaggio 2nd
bet.
PRAECERUS 5/1...1st $6.30
Sandown Hillside R6: (11 runners)
Quinella $18.90, Exacta $32.80. TRIFECTA $224.10 for
REWARDING EFFORT 5/2...1st $1.90 $22 bet.
Castle Hackett 2nd Kilmore R3: (10 runners)
Quinella $31.50, Exacta $40.30. TRIFECTA $330.80 for Goodjamak Baby 2nd
$18 bet.
PATRIOT ACT 5/1...1st $8.00
Bairnsdale R7: (9 runners)
Quinella $11.60, Exacta $23.90. TRIFECTA $247.10 for
PIRAN 2/1...1st $3.10 $16 bet.
Marjessie 2nd Moonee Valley R3: (12 runners)
Quinella $6.00, Exacta $10.20. TRIFECTA $441.70 for $14 WHEAL LEISURE 5/2...1st $5.60
bet.
Prescott 2nd
Caulfield R4: (9 runners)
Quinella $32.10, Exctas $64.90. TRIFECTA $291.00 for
Lyuba 2nd $20 bet.
TYKIATO 9/2...1st $10.50 Canterbury R7: (10 runners)
Quinella $10.40, Exacta $23.50. TRIFECTA $500.10 for YOUR WAY 5/2...1st $4.50
$14 bet.
Remunerator 2nd
Randwick R7: (9 runners)
Quinella $12.50, Exacta $25.00. TRIFECTA $659.90 for
Trafalgar 2nd $16 bet.
THEWAYWEARE 4/1...1st $5.50
Quinella $5.80, Exacta $13.20. TRIFECTA $159.80 for
$14 bet. CONTINUED ON PAGE 9
Coffs Harbour R7: (12 runners)
Practical Punting Magazine Page 8 visit www.practicalpunting.com.au
 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 8 (3) You don’t need to bet on every race.
(4) You will never have to place an enormous
Wagga R7: (11 runners)
bet.
Turbo Bundy 2nd
The average bet will be around $16. It’s only
WHERE’S SNIPPY 4/1...1st $3.30
Quinella $11.00, Exacta $20.90. TRIFECTA $127.90 for
when you bet in big fields that the cost rises
$18 bet. but the most you will ever have to outlay on
Flemington R5: (12 runners) a race is $44 for a 24 horse field. This would
Lord Van Percy 2nd happens only a few times a year.
BOOM TIME 7/2...1st $3.70
(5) All the ImpactPro race assessments are
Quinella $7.10, Exacta $13.60. TRIFECTA $86.50 for $20
bet. available on the PPD Club pages of the Prac-
Flemington R7: (13 runners) tical Punting.com.au website, usually from
Gallic Chieftain 2nd about 10am.
FLYING LIGHT 9/2...1st $14.00
Summings up, then, we have 2 betting ap-
Quinella $11.10, Exacta $38.90. TRIFECTA $427.50 for
$22 bet. proaches:

From the example races, the average field was 10.2

(a) Take the 1st and 2nd rated runners to fin-
runners. That means the average trifecta investment ish 1st/2nd (in any order) with the remaining
over a long period would probably be around the
$16 mark. Field for 3rd.
Of course, we haven’t shown all the results. There (b) Take the 1st and 3rd rated runners to finish
were many other trifecta collects and the inevita-
ble misses. 1st/2nd (in any order) with the remaining Field
for 3rd.
But, overall, the BIG results kept on coming. Week after
week. THE EXTRA APPROACH (often provides big
There is no reason to believe they will taper off because returns)
the structure of the ImpactPro approach nails down the
best in a race and the ones at value.
(c) The extra approach entails taking the 2nd
Keep clear in your mind:
and 3rd rated runners to finish 1st/2nd (in any
(1) Only 3 runners are assessed for publication order) with the remaining Field for 3rd.
and each is given a ‘true’ price.
(2) Only a handful of races are assessed each CONTINUED ON PAGE 10
raceday -
usually between 6 and 9.

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 CONTINUED FROM PAGE 9
The (a) and (b) approaches are the ones
we recommend wholeheartedly although
the (c) approach can score with some
excellent collects ($400 plus).
*** In the 27 examples we have listed, the average
return on a race was $403 against the average bet
of $16.
*** No big outlays but the probability of many BIG
collects.
HOW ARE IMPACTPRO RATINGS COMPILED?
Our computer database contains details of more than
80,000 races. The ratings take into account a wide
range of factors and determine which horses have the
best ‘impact’ potential.
Basically, it decides whether a horse is more likely to win
or less likely to win, given certain factors.
1-2-Field (8 remaining runners) =
8 combinations ($8)
2-1-Field (8 remaining runners) =
8 combinations ($8).
Your total bet is only $16.
If 1 and 2 run the quinella, you will land the
trifecta because you have every other horse
in the racing running for you to fill the 3rd
place.
It’s as simple as that. Pick your betting spots carefully.
Decide if a race is worth betting. We usually find there is
likely big value in about half of the daily assessed races.
Sometimes more.
Don’t worry if you are on the 2 favorites for 1st and 2nd
provided you reckon a smokey can lob into 3rd. This can
ensure a worthwhile bet.

An impact value of 1.00 means that horses have won no

www.practicalpunting.com.au
more or no less than their fair share of the races. Be- Discover why some punters have an
low 1.00 means they are performing below expectation, Unfair Advantage
above 1.00 means they are performing above expecta-
tion.

Impact Values are a key tool for the serious punter - and
members of the PPD Club have benefitted from them for
more than two decades...via ImpactPro ratings.

HOW DOES A BET WORK?

Let’s say the first 2 rated runners are BLOW-
HARD AND FISHBAIT, numbers 1 and 2. It is a
field of 10 runners.
Your trifecta bet looks like this:

Practical Punting Magazine Page 10 visit www.practicalpunting.com.au

 BEST OF THE
DAILY RACENOTES
Keep an eye on these runners who managed
to catch our eye with their performances!
Tuesday. March 21
STRATHAIRD finished fast for 2nd in BM55 over 1100m
at Scone; needs at least 1200m/1300m to find winning
form. From the same race, keep an eye on MESSIAH’S
JEWEL; slowly away, last and wide HT, ran on. That was
his first start since late December.
TORREGGIANTE came home nicely wide out 4th Mdn
Plate 1400m at Bendigo. We tagged MOON DROPS
from a Mdn Plate (3YF) 1100m. ANGASI was an impres-
sive winner over 1100m BM64 at her 2nd run off a spell;
can win again. At Tamworth, SAND WEDGE caught the
eye with a late charge for 2nd in a Mdn 1600m; he’s
close to a win.
Monday, March 13
We liked the run of VEGA for the Njorn Baker stable in a
BM60 1400m at Hawkesbury.

Monday, March 20 Sunday, March 12

KOPAONIK was doing her best work in the final 100m
John O’Shea’s newcomer ELLENROH produced a prom-
when 7th in Cl 1 1100m Wellington; could prove a sur-
ising effort for 2nd over 1112m at Kyneton.
prise packet. In the same race, we marked TAKING LIB-
Sunday, March 19 ERTIES as one to follow after her dead-heat 2nd. From
the Country Championships Qualifier 1400m, we ticked
There were some good efforts at Albury. We noted MAK-
off SOUTHERN FLIGHT (7th); the 4YO mare closed nice-
FI LASS for her closing 2nd in a Mdn 1175m. Two maid-
ly just behind the placegetters. In the Boot showcase
ens with future prospects are FIRST ROSE and MATE-
1100m we noted PIERONE make ground late.
SHIP; both ran well in a Country Showcase Mdn 1400m.
Others worth jotting down from this meeting - BLACK Thursday, March 9
CARTEL, ARCTIC GREY, CHALLENGE ACCEPTED,
We liked the late-closing run wide out of LORD ORE for
FOREVER NEWYORK and HANGING’ WITH WILLY.
4th in BM70 1400m at Pakenham; that was the 7YO’s
Thursday, March 16 first racetrack run since June last year.
Good runs from DINNER LAKE (5th) and HE EKSCELS Wednesday, March 8
(3rd) in a 3YO Mdn Plate 1200m at Pakenham. MIGHTY
Keep on the trail of newcomer COSTALOT after her de-
QUINN turned in a slashing run on debut for 2nd in a
but 5th in a Mdn 2YO Fillies 1200m at Ballarat.
Mdn 1400m; came from last and wide at the 400m. In
the same race, RELIABLE DAME (6th) only hit top gear
in the final 50m; can improve sharply. We ticked the 2nd
placing of MISSILE BOOM first-up off a spell in a Cl 1 Join the Community
over 1200m. www.facebook.com/practicalpunting

Tuesday, March 14

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EDUCATING
PUNTER
THE
The Optimist
You just have to hear this one from the
anchor man in Sydney.
“Well, that was the first Group One race today and
the next one will be the second.”
Please just think about this for a while. Am I the only
one who cracked up at the inane comment?
The same bloke just cannot understand that the
Reisling Stakes is named after a champion mare. Her
name was REISLING. It is pronounced RISE LING. It
means ANGEL. It is NOT a drink! What has a man got
to do to spell this out to the bloke at SKY One?
Oh dear. The lovely people are back. Lots of hugging
and kissing, and before we even see the placegetters
cross the line. Used to be only Channel 7 but not any
“Top trainers win most races. Guess what jockeys they use?”
more. I’d hoped I might at least see the entire field
cross the finishing line, but no… more important to
watch lovely ladies and men celebrating. Never heard
of them, never seen them, but obviously connections.
And far more important than the races.
While the vitriol gurgles, what about those bloody
SKY blinds? They drop in front of your screen at the
start, or the finish, or anything else for that matter, so
we cannot see the horses and the racing for them. Of
course they are telling us the odds for the West Woop
Practical Punting Magazine
Woop dog maiden and because it hasn’t been run yet
it must be more important, with its $400 total invest-
ment pool.
And that big bald chap on 529. Honestly. Why is EV-
ERYTHING SO FUNNY? I acknowledge with envy his
marvellous set of teeth, but really… is it all so damn
excruciatingly hilarious? Can’t we just have straight
talk? And do we need to be so incredibly smart after
every race? Before would be far preferable. To me
anyway. It might help me find a winner rather than
hear how obvious it all was AFTER the race.
I went into a TAB this afternoon, a club TAB actually.
The usual desperates were all there. You weren’t and
good on you. Let’s face it. Single TAB odds as against
the best of three. Why would you or I EVER bet un-
der those conditions? How long will it be before the
three major TABs link up? I don’t care how, just get it
done. Gradually the crash will come for the individual
TABs unless they attend to this. I anticipate a stuff-up
or three along the line but if they want to survive as
individuals the TABs must combine to offer ONE tote
set of results.
We saw It’s Somewhat win recently. Remember? Did
you see the places?
No?
Well that’s because we were entertained by Darren
Beadman and somebody dancing around while the
horses crossed the line. Nope. I don’t know either.
But there they were.
There was in fact no run-on at all. No reply, nix,noth-
ing.
I guess my point of ALL this is why is it happening?
And how about sorting the left-right and right-left
CONTINUED PAGE 13
Page 12 visit www.practicalpunting.com.au
 sense.
EDUCATING If the horse SHOULD be $10 then it is not value. It is
THE
PUNTER The Optimist CONTINUED FROM PAGE 12
only value if it is $10 and in your view should be (say)
$7. Or even $8. The trouble is that these fake “ex-
perts” would have you believe “value” means a big
listings of the first four at the bottom of the screen? price. A horse that should be $51 is not value at $51. It
When they go left on your screen, so the places are is rightly, correctly, assessed.
listed 1.2.3.4. A horse that is, say, $2.50 and should be maybe $1.80
They go right on your screen, so the horses (one to is genuine value. True, it may be too short or you, but
four) are listed 4.3.2.1. a pro will knock you over to get set.

So yes, you say, so what? Well, truth to be told, SOME-
TIMES it’s like this and SOMETIMES it’s back to front.
So yet again… Why? Who is the person in charge who
gets it wrong?
I could write from now till doomsday and many read-
ers will not take this on board. They will be told,
every race day, that Radish is value at $7 when Rad-
ish OUGHT to be $7. He is not value, he is correctly
priced.

“ could write from now till doomsday and many readers will
not take this on board.”

VALUE All I ask and have asked my readers for years is to

think about what is being said. Most of the “experts”
Let’s focus on this easy concept. It isn’t, unfortunately, have no idea of “value”. Value only represents a price
easy for many of the “turf experts” to grasp. IF it is above its correct price. If it is not, then whatev-
er else it is, it is NOT value.
Value is in the eye of the beholder, the assessor. In
other words, YOU. This nonsense of “I have chosen a
value bet in Blah Blah who is $10” is just that – non-

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plan MONTH
OF THE
The Optimist
I was pondering recently over a basic
system along the lines of the dummies
books.
Know them? Italian for Dummies, Bridge for Dummies, etc.
etc.
They are NOT insulting to learners: quite the reverse. The
amusing name is what I might well give a guide book if I
wanted to study Russian (I know nyet but I doubt that gets
you much of the way in Moscow). If I wanted to be able to de-
sign systems I would need to have some basic understand-
ing of what to do and what not to do. I would be insulting
you if I said you must be able to add past two and two… or
would I?
What IS basic? I thought about this for a while and then I
went to the writer and racing investor I have trumpeted for
many years, and the best of his kind I’ve ever come across,
Englishman Alan Potts. Many of the ideas I present here are
in one way or the other indebted to Mr Potts. I make no se-
cret of my admiration for his conceptual thinking and his suc-
cinct argument when it comes to racing.
I therefore offer you a restricting way (not restrictive, mind…
just a controlling) way of keeping things in check. Let’s call it
the NEW DEAL.
1. Place two banks aside. I will make them $1000 each but
you can make them what you like.
2. Allocate one to multiples (Bank One) and one to varied
bets (Bank Two).
3. You will only ever bet 10% of ONE bank. The other does
not operate that day.
4. Bet ONLY on Saturday races or on other GROUP races.
5. Select four races from the highest six prizemoney races
in the land. We will only ever require one horse per race.
The finer points of the method come later. This choice of
four races is YOURS and is best decided by your knowl-
edge of the fields and your confidence levels.
6. You MAY stay with a minimum of two meetings if you pre-
fer – the “highest six” will be the highest six prizes at
those two meetings.
7. Delete all runners in your chosen four races at above $10.
8. Eliminate all horses that have not won in any of their last
eight races or in eighteen months (either one).
Practical Punting Magazine Page 14
9. Eliminate any horse that has NEVER won in today’s dis-
tance range (within 100 metres to 1400 metres, within
200 metres to 1800 metres, and within 400 metres be-
yond this).
10. Eliminate any horse that was not previously known to you
(be honest here!).
11. Eliminate any horse whose rider was not previously
known to you.
12. Eliminate any out of town trainer.
THE SELECTIONS:
1. If one of your four races contains a favourite still qualified,
and up to and including $5, it is an IMMEDIATE SELEC-
TION.
2. If two such races, each is a selection.
3. If three, ditto.
4. And if four FAVOURITES qualify within a maximum of $5,
all four are the selections.
AT THIS POINT, BANK TWO IS OUT OF PLAY FOR TODAY.
Your bets are:
SIX DOUBLES AT $25
FOUR TREBLES AT $8
ONE FOURFOLD AT $8
Your total outlay is $190 and you require two favourites to
win and pay a combined $7.60 (say 13/2) to cover all bets.
PLAN B
Any fewer than four favourites qualifying? Forget the above
method entirely. Today’s bets are on Plan B.
And they are on the first MARKET horse in each of your cho-
sen races.
Say Wheelbarrow is number three in your market and is the
first one not knocked out by one of the rules. Wheelbarrow
is a selection.
Say there is a clash (eg. two horses are equal second in the
market and both are OK with the rules). Delete this race. Ei-
ther choose one of the remaining two races of the original
six, or operate with just three races today.
Bet $35 to win on each selection.
Bet four trebles and one accumulator PLACE at $12 each on
the four selections.
You may well say “no way” to this. I’m being conservative. A
win at (say) $5 brings in $175. Say three of the four place and
pay a multiple of just $9. That’s $2 x $2 x $2.25.
SO THREE PLACES BRING IN AN ADDITIONAL $108 AND
A LOVELY PROFIT. Get all four placed and you’re laughing.
ALL placing would win handsomely even if you backed NO
winners.
Conservative plans? Yes relatively, but with great potential to
win you stacks in the long term.
visit www.practicalpunting.com.au
 am dubious as to how we can go with grass and vari-
CLIVE able track conditions to gain meaningful facts about

of times unlike, perhaps, America where racing is on

the same tracks for days and weeks allowing times

PPM to be a better reflection of form.

Clive Allcock
TIME TELLS – SOMETIMES!
I have over the years looked at Timeform to see if
I could pick out some aspects to help my punting.
My interest has ebbed and flowed but always re-
mained and I returned last year to conduct another
“on paper” experiment to see if the ratings could be
added to my analysis. I obtain some of the ratings
that focus on the top horses in their age range as
published in the free online ANZ Bloodstock News
which comes out each day and is itself a good aid
with news and commentaries. Timeform usually has
a Thursday review of the previous Saturday and up-
date of the ratings.
Gary Crispe is the man who monitors the process
of checking out ratings and I have had a couple of
chats with him at the track to see what I can learn.
The first lesson was to see how vast the database is!
Racing from our area. but also around the world, is
Wrong again. The team out here take weights and
beaten margins into account but have so much in-
formation they can incorporate these difficulties into
their ratings by comparing many years of races on
our tracks. Their articles report on comparisons of
major events based on many years and extraordi-
nary detailed breakdowns of sectional times to com-
pare them with those previous years and current
play at the courses.
The next question is – how to best use them? Of
course they can be calculated like any other rating
– if A is 123 and B is 119 then the four points reflect
2kg difference in ability. So if A is only one kilogram
up in the weights than B, all being equal and price
being good, is the bet.
But the angle I looked at last year and mentioned
briefly in my previous column was to say – what if
I used the ratings of the best horses and followed
them through the carnivals without doing race by
race computations. Gary did point out that it is some-
times seen that a horse runs to a particular rating,
drops down for maybe two or three starts and then
for no obvious reason races back at the good rat-
ing and may be at a bigger price. Forgiving a good

“Gary Crispe is the man who monitors the process of checking out
ratings and I have had a couple of chats with him at the track to see
what I can learn.”

covered and goes back for long periods of time (the
whole method was started by professional punter
Phil Bull in 1948).
My reservation about doing much with the ratings
was my misperception that it was all about times. I
horse a couple of moderate runs! Last year I looked
at setting a price limit of runners being at least $5 in
the morning odds to try and find value and reduce
the number of bets in the good races these top rat-
ed horses were in. Good results with Rebel Dane

Practical Punting Magazine Page 15 visit www.practicalpunting.com.au

being the best – sadly none bet on.
So this year I took the ratings as at the end of De-
cember for three years old and older only and added
back the small handful of horses that had dropped
out of the ratings from the previous list. I set the limit
at $10. No good result so far although Fatinnah at
$41 nearly made my day. I will keep thinking about
this angle but I do commend the ANZ Bloodstock
News and especially the Timefom page to you for
consideration.
get (over nearly three years of data!) a sample of 100
bets. The place return here was $96.1 so I smugly
declared place betting to be pointless.
However the same friend, who is a keen place better
specialist, commented that just using the NSW div-
idends could have led to a loss as they have often
found that those dividends are not always the best
of the three totes. I had settled on tote betting as a
little observation of the fixed odds for the mornings
when my bets go on showed fixed odds should be
avoided as an option.

MORE FIGURES! This observation was followed by another Saturday

of sound place dividends! So I decided the only way
to really resolve this was to set aside a small bank
A recent run of placings with my beaten favourite’s and try until the bank is lost or the end of the financial
angle hurt! While there were winners enough some year is reached and the matter can be reassessed in
of the place dividends looked appetising and after the field of battle.
one weekend with a high number of seconds the
So the last Saturday before writing this was day one.
frustration was too much. I had to see if a profit was
And the first bet was Chat To Maggie. Yep, a second
possible. So out came my collection of form guides
at $41. The angst was a tad eased by the place div-
and results. I could only use the NSW place dividends
idend of $8.70. My general observation is that the
(more later) and while I was muttering about going to
place dividend are often only 20% of the win price
the effort of this research a friend suggested that I
so I became nostalgic for the “good ole days” of 25%
should look at the longer priced ones as a separate
for the place but the day was a profitable start so the
pool. So some hours of life passed by!
quest for a small profit ( and hopefully) fewer tears is
Seeking a reliable sample I completed a review of on. Just don’t tell The Optimist!
140 races that I had bet on for a good win profit from
Until next issue – have fun punting.
those races. The place return was $137.10 - a small
loss resulted. For the longshots I managed by set-
ting a limit of at least $15 in the morning paper to

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