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THE RUBBER BOARD
(ilFrw vq sairr q-[d-q, qr{fl rr{qrr)
(Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India)
fr.fi.q lr2z, sq +d qls, o]-erfi - 686002
PB No.l 122. SLrb Jail Road, Kottayatr- 686 002
Shri.Chandrasekharan Nair,
Sheeraghav,
SANRA 82, Perukavu,
Peyad PO
Thiruvananthapuram 695573
Sir,
With reference to the above, the following facts are forwarded. The error
reported is on the stock of natural rubber estimated using formula approach. The
globally accepted formula for estimating and verifying NR production,
consumption, trade and stock is as follows.
Closing stock estimated through formulae method and survey method showed
wide variations during the period from 2009-10 to 2013-14. This mismatch could
be due to overestimation of NR production or underestimation of consumption or
a combination of both. Consumption, import and export of NR are objective
estimates as they are primarily based on returns and documents. NR production
is a subjective estimate as it is mainly based on monthly sample survey and any
error in production is reflected in stock of rubber as well. Hence, NR production
statistics during 2009-10 to 2013-14 were reviewed by an Expert panel and
recommended for revision based on a statistical regression model.
With regard to stock of NR, the Expert Panel recommended that it should include
rubber with growers, dealers, processors and manufacturers based on surveys
and returns collected and that the standard equality between (opening stock +
production + import) and (consumption + export + closing stock) should be
maintained as far as possible.
It may be noted that the error in estimates has been considerably reduced after
revision of statistical methodology in 2015-16 based on the recommendations of
the Expert Panel. For the year 2016-17 and 2017-18, error levels are only 1.2o/o
and 1.7% respectively of the total NR consumption in the country which is less
than the permissible error of up Io S%.
The unavoidable error in statistics on stock has no link with volume of rubber
imported as there have been no QRs on import from April 2001. Volume
of
rubber imported depends mainly on price differences between domestic and
international markets, deficit in NR production and regularity of market arrivals.
Copy to : Shri.M.S.Banerjee
Under Secretary to Government of India
Dept. of Commerce
Ministry of Commerce & lndustry
New Delhi