Harga meja = Rp 150,000

Harga kursi = Rp 100,000

Market share = 20%
NPM = 15

Data Perusahaan + Data Pesaing Data Perusahaan Data Perusahaan +

Periode NPM * 1500 NPM * 1500
Meja Kursi Meja Kursi Meja Kursi Meja
1 109693 120076 67400 75810 87193 97576 109693
2 112940 117365 68443 74569 90440 94865 112940
3 110116 112341 69919 76990 87616 89841 110116
4 112757 117717 68302 76168 90257 95217 112757
5 112303 117392 70327 78667 89803 94892 112303
6 112090 114964 69236 75886 89590 92464 112090
7 113644 119220 69682 76789 91144 96720 113644
8 115342 115420 70989 78430 92842 92920 115342
9 113595 116121 69665 79171 91095 93621 113595
10 113948 121783 70260 79531 91448 99283 113948
11 116370 117273 72361 78257 93870 94773 116370
12 114956 123608 71835 79904 92456 101108 114956
13 113526 130052 71753 78484 91026 107552 113526
14 115995 125031 70585 79987 93495 102531 115995
15 116878 126815 72292 79462 94378 104315 116878
16 115155 123820 72033 82369 92655 101320 115155
17 116047 128817 72271 80831 93547 106317 116047
18 116380 120163 71919 81999 93880 97663 116380
19 115469 119307 73435 81695 92969 96807 115469
20 117418 121824 74278 82361 94918 99324 117418
21 118808 128674 75138 84279 96308 106174 118808
22 119535 122751 75498 81590 97035 100251 119535
23 117286 127516 76526 84627 94786 105016 117286
24 119271 121703 76225 83126 96771 99203 119271
25 118348 123702 77163 84794 95848 101202 118348
26 121312 124702 75892 82818 98812 102202 121312
27 118931 128765 74746 83363 96431 106265 118931
28 118603 127546 74833 85778 96103 105046 118603
29 119974 129038 75963 84070 97474 106538 119974
30 117708 126319 78374 85440 95208 103819 117708
31 119290 127795 77159 85465 96790 105295 119290
32 118844 126486 77985 83952 96344 103986 118844
33 119113 128454 77123 84841 96613 105954 119113
34 123689 129792 79136 86920 101189 107292 123689
35 122663 121339 78791 87343 100163 98839 122663
36 123583 128671 79879 88479 101083 106171 123583
Data Perusahaan +
NPM * 1500
Kursi
120076
117365
112341
117717
117392
114964
119220
115420
116121
121783
117273
123608
130052
125031
126815
123820
128817
120163
119307
121824
128674
122751
127516
121703
123702
124702
128765
127546
129038
126319
127795
126486
128454
129792
121339
128671
 Agregasi Data Perusahaan Agregasi Data Pesai
Periode Meja Kursi Total Periode Meja
1 Rp 16,453,950,000 Rp 12,007,600,000 Rp 28,461,550,000 1 Rp 10,110,000,000
2 Rp 16,941,000,000 Rp 11,736,500,000 Rp 28,677,500,000 2 Rp 10,266,450,000
3 Rp 16,517,400,000 Rp 11,234,100,000 Rp 27,751,500,000 3 Rp 10,487,850,000
4 Rp 16,913,550,000 Rp 11,771,700,000 Rp 28,685,250,000 4 Rp 10,245,300,000
5 Rp 16,845,450,000 Rp 11,739,200,000 Rp 28,584,650,000 5 Rp 10,549,050,000
6 Rp 16,813,500,000 Rp 11,496,400,000 Rp 28,309,900,000 6 Rp 10,385,400,000
7 Rp 17,046,600,000 Rp 11,922,000,000 Rp 28,968,600,000 7 Rp 10,452,300,000
8 Rp 17,301,300,000 Rp 11,542,000,000 Rp 28,843,300,000 8 Rp 10,648,350,000
9 Rp 17,039,250,000 Rp 11,612,100,000 Rp 28,651,350,000 9 Rp 10,449,750,000
10 Rp 17,092,200,000 Rp 12,178,300,000 Rp 29,270,500,000 10 Rp 10,539,000,000
11 Rp 17,455,500,000 Rp 11,727,300,000 Rp 29,182,800,000 11 Rp 10,854,150,000
12 Rp 17,243,400,000 Rp 12,360,800,000 Rp 29,604,200,000 12 Rp 10,775,250,000
13 Rp 17,028,900,000 Rp 13,005,200,000 Rp 30,034,100,000 13 Rp 10,762,950,000
14 Rp 17,399,250,000 Rp 12,503,100,000 Rp 29,902,350,000 14 Rp 10,587,750,000
15 Rp 17,531,700,000 Rp 12,681,500,000 Rp 30,213,200,000 15 Rp 10,843,800,000
16 Rp 17,273,250,000 Rp 12,382,000,000 Rp 29,655,250,000 16 Rp 10,804,950,000
17 Rp 17,407,050,000 Rp 12,881,700,000 Rp 30,288,750,000 17 Rp 10,840,650,000
18 Rp 17,457,000,000 Rp 12,016,300,000 Rp 29,473,300,000 18 Rp 10,787,850,000
19 Rp 17,320,350,000 Rp 11,930,700,000 Rp 29,251,050,000 19 Rp 11,015,250,000
20 Rp 17,612,700,000 Rp 12,182,400,000 Rp 29,795,100,000 20 Rp 11,141,700,000
21 Rp 17,821,200,000 Rp 12,867,400,000 Rp 30,688,600,000 21 Rp 11,270,700,000
22 Rp 17,930,250,000 Rp 12,275,100,000 Rp 30,205,350,000 22 Rp 11,324,700,000
23 Rp 17,592,900,000 Rp 12,751,600,000 Rp 30,344,500,000 23 Rp 11,478,900,000
24 Rp 17,890,650,000 Rp 12,170,300,000 Rp 30,060,950,000 24 Rp 11,433,750,000
25 Rp 17,752,200,000 Rp 12,370,200,000 Rp 30,122,400,000 25 Rp 11,574,450,000
26 Rp 18,196,800,000 Rp 12,470,200,000 Rp 30,667,000,000 26 Rp 11,383,800,000
27 Rp 17,839,650,000 Rp 12,876,500,000 Rp 30,716,150,000 27 Rp 11,211,900,000
28 Rp 17,790,450,000 Rp 12,754,600,000 Rp 30,545,050,000 28 Rp 11,224,950,000
29 Rp 17,996,100,000 Rp 12,903,800,000 Rp 30,899,900,000 29 Rp 11,394,450,000
30 Rp 17,656,200,000 Rp 12,631,900,000 Rp 30,288,100,000 30 Rp 11,756,100,000
31 Rp 17,893,500,000 Rp 12,779,500,000 Rp 30,673,000,000 31 Rp 11,573,850,000
32 Rp 17,826,600,000 Rp 12,648,600,000 Rp 30,475,200,000 32 Rp 11,697,750,000
33 Rp 17,866,950,000 Rp 12,845,400,000 Rp 30,712,350,000 33 Rp 11,568,450,000
34 Rp 18,553,350,000 Rp 12,979,200,000 Rp 31,532,550,000 34 Rp 11,870,400,000
35 Rp 18,399,450,000 Rp 12,133,900,000 Rp 30,533,350,000 35 Rp 11,818,650,000
36 Rp 18,537,450,000 Rp 12,867,100,000 Rp 31,404,550,000 36 Rp 11,981,850,000
Total Rp 630,237,000,000 Rp 443,236,200,000 Rp 1,073,473,200,000 Total Rp 397,112,400,000
Proporsi 0.59 0.41 Proporsi 0.58
Agregasi Data Pesaing
Kursi Total
Rp 7,581,000,000 Rp 17,691,000,000
Rp 7,456,900,000 Rp 17,723,350,000
Rp 7,699,000,000 Rp 18,186,850,000
Rp 7,616,800,000 Rp 17,862,100,000
Rp 7,866,700,000 Rp 18,415,750,000
Rp 7,588,600,000 Rp 17,974,000,000
Rp 7,678,900,000 Rp 18,131,200,000
Rp 7,843,000,000 Rp 18,491,350,000
Rp 7,917,100,000 Rp 18,366,850,000
Rp 7,953,100,000 Rp 18,492,100,000
Rp 7,825,700,000 Rp 18,679,850,000
Rp 7,990,400,000 Rp 18,765,650,000
Rp 7,848,400,000 Rp 18,611,350,000
Rp 7,998,700,000 Rp 18,586,450,000
Rp 7,946,200,000 Rp 18,790,000,000
Rp 8,236,900,000 Rp 19,041,850,000
Rp 8,083,100,000 Rp 18,923,750,000
Rp 8,199,900,000 Rp 18,987,750,000
Rp 8,169,500,000 Rp 19,184,750,000
Rp 8,236,100,000 Rp 19,377,800,000
Rp 8,427,900,000 Rp 19,698,600,000
Rp 8,159,000,000 Rp 19,483,700,000
Rp 8,462,700,000 Rp 19,941,600,000
Rp 8,312,600,000 Rp 19,746,350,000
Rp 8,479,400,000 Rp 20,053,850,000
Rp 8,281,800,000 Rp 19,665,600,000
Rp 8,336,300,000 Rp 19,548,200,000
Rp 8,577,800,000 Rp 19,802,750,000
Rp 8,407,000,000 Rp 19,801,450,000
Rp 8,544,000,000 Rp 20,300,100,000
Rp 8,546,500,000 Rp 20,120,350,000
Rp 8,395,200,000 Rp 20,092,950,000
Rp 8,484,100,000 Rp 20,052,550,000
Rp 8,692,000,000 Rp 20,562,400,000
Rp 8,734,300,000 Rp 20,552,950,000
Rp 8,847,900,000 Rp 20,829,750,000
Rp 293,424,500,000 Rp 690,536,900,000
0.42
Data Perusahaan
Periode Demand S't S"t at
1 Rp 28,461,550,000
2 Rp 28,677,500,000
3 Rp 27,751,500,000 Rp 28,296,850,000
4 Rp 28,685,250,000 Rp 28,371,416,667
5 Rp 28,584,650,000 Rp 28,340,466,667 Rp 28,336,244,445 Rp 28,344,688,889
6 Rp 28,309,900,000 Rp 28,526,600,000 Rp 28,412,827,778 Rp 28,640,372,222
7 Rp 28,968,600,000 Rp 28,621,050,000 Rp 28,496,038,889 Rp 28,746,061,111
8 Rp 28,843,300,000 Rp 28,707,266,667 Rp 28,618,305,556 Rp 28,796,227,778
9 Rp 28,651,350,000 Rp 28,821,083,334 Rp 28,716,466,667 Rp 28,925,700,001
10 Rp 29,270,500,000 Rp 28,921,716,667 Rp 28,816,688,890 Rp 29,026,744,444
11 Rp 29,182,800,000 Rp 29,034,883,334 Rp 28,925,894,445 Rp 29,143,872,223
12 Rp 29,604,200,000 Rp 29,352,500,000 Rp 29,103,033,334 Rp 29,601,966,666
13 Rp 30,034,100,000 Rp 29,607,033,334 Rp 29,331,472,223 Rp 29,882,594,445
14 Rp 29,902,350,000 Rp 29,846,883,334 Rp 29,602,138,890 Rp 30,091,627,778
15 Rp 30,213,200,000 Rp 30,049,883,334 Rp 29,834,600,001 Rp 30,265,166,667
16 Rp 29,655,250,000 Rp 29,923,600,000 Rp 29,940,122,223 Rp 29,907,077,777
17 Rp 30,288,750,000 Rp 30,052,400,000 Rp 30,008,627,778 Rp 30,096,172,222
18 Rp 29,473,300,000 Rp 29,805,766,667 Rp 29,927,255,556 Rp 29,684,277,778
19 Rp 29,251,050,000 Rp 29,671,033,334 Rp 29,843,066,667 Rp 29,499,000,001
20 Rp 29,795,100,000 Rp 29,506,483,334 Rp 29,661,094,445 Rp 29,351,872,223
21 Rp 30,688,600,000 Rp 29,911,583,334 Rp 29,696,366,668 Rp 30,126,800,000
22 Rp 30,205,350,000 Rp 30,229,683,334 Rp 29,882,583,334 Rp 30,576,783,334
23 Rp 30,344,500,000 Rp 30,412,816,667 Rp 30,184,694,445 Rp 30,640,938,889
24 Rp 30,060,950,000 Rp 30,203,600,000 Rp 30,282,033,334 Rp 30,125,166,666
25 Rp 30,122,400,000 Rp 30,175,950,000 Rp 30,264,122,223 Rp 30,087,777,777
26 Rp 30,667,000,000 Rp 30,283,450,000 Rp 30,221,000,000 Rp 30,345,900,000
27 Rp 30,716,150,000 Rp 30,501,850,000 Rp 30,320,416,667 Rp 30,683,283,333
28 Rp 30,545,050,000 Rp 30,642,733,334 Rp 30,476,011,112 Rp 30,809,455,556
29 Rp 30,899,900,000 Rp 30,720,366,667 Rp 30,621,650,001 Rp 30,819,083,333
30 Rp 30,288,100,000 Rp 30,577,683,334 Rp 30,646,927,779 Rp 30,508,438,889
31 Rp 30,673,000,000 Rp 30,620,333,334 Rp 30,639,461,112 Rp 30,601,205,556
32 Rp 30,475,200,000 Rp 30,478,766,667 Rp 30,558,927,779 Rp 30,398,605,555
33 Rp 30,712,350,000 Rp 30,620,183,334 Rp 30,573,094,445 Rp 30,667,272,223
34 Rp 31,532,550,000 Rp 30,906,700,000 Rp 30,668,550,001 Rp 31,144,849,999
35 Rp 30,533,350,000 Rp 30,926,083,334 Rp 30,817,655,556 Rp 31,034,511,112
36 Rp 31,404,550,000 Rp 31,156,816,667 Rp 30,996,533,334 Rp 31,317,100,000
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
 89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
TOTAL

UKURAN KESALAHAN DENGAN CARA STATISTIK

- Mean Error (ME)
∑et
ME =
n
-2726538882.00
=
32
= -85204340.06

- Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

∑│et│
MAE =
n
7442761120.00
=
32
= 232586285.00

- Sum of Square Error (SSE)

SSE = (∑et)
2

= ###

- Mean of Square Error (MSE)

SSE
MSE =
n
###
=
32
= ###

- Standard Deviation Error (SDE)

SDE = √ SSE
n-1

=√
###
32-1
= 481988533.16

UKURAN KESALAHAN RELATIF

 - Percentage Error (PE)
et
PE = X 100%
Dt

- Mean Percentage Error (MPE)

∑PE
MPE =
n
-0.09
=
32
= 0.00

- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

∑│PE│
MAPE =
n
0.25
=
32
= 0.01

Data Pesaing
Periode Demand S't S"t at
1 Rp 17,691,000,000
2 Rp 17,723,350,000
3 Rp 18,186,850,000 Rp 17,867,066,667
4 Rp 17,862,100,000 Rp 17,924,100,000
5 Rp 18,415,750,000 Rp 18,154,900,000 Rp 17,982,022,223 Rp 18,327,777,777
6 Rp 17,974,000,000 Rp 18,083,950,000 Rp 18,054,316,667 Rp 18,113,583,333
7 Rp 18,131,200,000 Rp 18,173,650,000 Rp 18,137,500,000 Rp 18,209,800,000
8 Rp 18,491,350,000 Rp 18,198,850,000 Rp 18,152,150,000 Rp 18,245,550,000
9 Rp 18,366,850,000 Rp 18,329,800,000 Rp 18,234,100,000 Rp 18,425,500,000
10 Rp 18,492,100,000 Rp 18,450,100,000 Rp 18,326,250,000 Rp 18,573,950,000
11 Rp 18,679,850,000 Rp 18,512,933,334 Rp 18,430,944,445 Rp 18,594,922,223
12 Rp 18,765,650,000 Rp 18,645,866,667 Rp 18,536,300,001 Rp 18,755,433,333
13 Rp 18,611,350,000 Rp 18,685,616,667 Rp 18,614,805,556 Rp 18,756,427,778
14 Rp 18,586,450,000 Rp 18,654,483,334 Rp 18,661,988,890 Rp 18,646,977,778
15 Rp 18,790,000,000 Rp 18,662,600,000 Rp 18,667,566,667 Rp 18,657,633,333
16 Rp 19,041,850,000 Rp 18,806,100,000 Rp 18,707,727,778 Rp 18,904,472,222
17 Rp 18,923,750,000 Rp 18,918,533,334 Rp 18,795,744,445 Rp 19,041,322,223
18 Rp 18,987,750,000 Rp 18,984,450,000 Rp 18,903,027,778 Rp 19,065,872,222
19 Rp 19,184,750,000 Rp 19,032,083,334 Rp 18,978,355,556 Rp 19,085,811,112
20 Rp 19,377,800,000 Rp 19,183,433,334 Rp 19,066,655,556 Rp 19,300,211,112
21 Rp 19,698,600,000 Rp 19,420,383,334 Rp 19,211,966,668 Rp 19,628,800,000
22 Rp 19,483,700,000 Rp 19,520,033,334 Rp 19,374,616,668 Rp 19,665,450,000
23 Rp 19,941,600,000 Rp 19,707,966,667 Rp 19,549,461,112 Rp 19,866,472,222
24 Rp 19,746,350,000 Rp 19,723,883,334 Rp 19,650,627,779 Rp 19,797,138,889
25 Rp 20,053,850,000 Rp 19,913,933,334 Rp 19,781,927,779 Rp 20,045,938,889
26 Rp 19,665,600,000 Rp 19,821,933,334 Rp 19,819,916,668 Rp 19,823,950,000
27 Rp 19,548,200,000 Rp 19,755,883,334 Rp 19,830,583,334 Rp 19,681,183,334
28 Rp 19,802,750,000 Rp 19,672,183,334 Rp 19,750,000,001 Rp 19,594,366,667
29 Rp 19,801,450,000 Rp 19,717,466,667 Rp 19,715,177,779 Rp 19,719,755,555
30 Rp 20,300,100,000 Rp 19,968,100,000 Rp 19,785,916,667 Rp 20,150,283,333
31 Rp 20,120,350,000 Rp 20,073,966,667 Rp 19,919,844,445 Rp 20,228,088,889
32 Rp 20,092,950,000 Rp 20,171,133,334 Rp 20,071,066,667 Rp 20,271,200,001
33 Rp 20,052,550,000 Rp 20,088,616,667 Rp 20,111,238,890 Rp 20,065,994,444
34 Rp 20,562,400,000 Rp 20,235,966,667 Rp 20,165,238,890 Rp 20,306,694,444
35 Rp 20,552,950,000 Rp 20,389,300,000 Rp 20,237,961,112 Rp 20,540,638,888
36 Rp 20,829,750,000 Rp 20,648,366,667 Rp 20,424,544,445 Rp 20,872,188,889
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
 71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
TOTAL

UKURAN KESALAHAN DENGAN CARA STATISTIK

- Mean Error (ME)
∑et
ME =
n
-2546711102.00
=
32
= -79584721.94

- Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

∑│et│
MAE =
n
4513411108.00
=
32
= 141044097.13

- Sum of Square Error (SSE)

 SSE = (∑et)
2

= ###

- Mean of Square Error (MSE)

SSE
MSE =
n
###
=
32
= ###

- Standard Deviation Error (SDE)

SDE = √ SSE
n-1

=√
###
32-1
= 450199172.49

UKURAN KESALAHAN RELATIF

- Percentage Error (PE)
et
PE = X 100%
Dt

- Mean Percentage Error (MPE)

∑PE
MPE =
n
-0.13
=
32
= 0.00

- Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

∑│PE│
MAPE =
n
0.23
=
32
= 0.01
 bt m F(t+m) et |et|

Rp 4,222,222 1 Rp 28,348,911,111 Rp 235,738,889 Rp 235,738,889

Rp 113,772,222 1 Rp 28,754,144,444 Rp (444,244,444) Rp 444,244,444
Rp 125,011,111 1 Rp 28,871,072,222 Rp 97,527,778 Rp 97,527,778
Rp 88,961,111 1 Rp 28,885,188,889 Rp (41,888,889) Rp 41,888,889
Rp 104,616,667 1 Rp 29,030,316,668 Rp (378,966,668) Rp 378,966,668
Rp 105,027,777 1 Rp 29,131,772,221 Rp 138,727,779 Rp 138,727,779
Rp 108,988,889 1 Rp 29,252,861,112 Rp (70,061,112) Rp 70,061,112
Rp 249,466,666 1 Rp 29,851,433,332 Rp (247,233,332) Rp 247,233,332
Rp 275,561,111 1 Rp 30,158,155,556 Rp (124,055,556) Rp 124,055,556
Rp 244,744,444 1 Rp 30,336,372,222 Rp (434,022,222) Rp 434,022,222
Rp 215,283,333 1 Rp 30,480,450,000 Rp (267,250,000) Rp 267,250,000
Rp (16,522,223) 1 Rp 29,890,555,554 Rp (235,305,554) Rp 235,305,554
Rp 43,772,222 1 Rp 30,139,944,444 Rp 148,805,556 Rp 148,805,556
Rp (121,488,889) 1 Rp 29,562,788,889 Rp (89,488,889) Rp 89,488,889
Rp (172,033,333) 1 Rp 29,326,966,668 Rp (75,916,668) Rp 75,916,668
Rp (154,611,111) 1 Rp 29,197,261,112 Rp 597,838,888 Rp 597,838,888
Rp 215,216,666 1 Rp 30,342,016,666 Rp 346,583,334 Rp 346,583,334
Rp 347,100,000 1 Rp 30,923,883,334 Rp (718,533,334) Rp 718,533,334
Rp 228,122,222 1 Rp 30,869,061,111 Rp (524,561,111) Rp 524,561,111
Rp (78,433,334) 1 Rp 30,046,733,332 Rp 14,216,668 Rp 14,216,668
Rp (88,172,223) 1 Rp 29,999,605,554 Rp 122,794,446 Rp 122,794,446
Rp 62,450,000 1 Rp 30,408,350,000 Rp 258,650,000 Rp 258,650,000
Rp 181,433,333 1 Rp 30,864,716,666 Rp (148,566,666) Rp 148,566,666
Rp 166,722,222 1 Rp 30,976,177,778 Rp (431,127,778) Rp 431,127,778
Rp 98,716,666 1 Rp 30,917,799,999 Rp (17,899,999) Rp 17,899,999
Rp (69,244,445) 1 Rp 30,439,194,444 Rp (151,094,444) Rp 151,094,444
Rp (19,127,778) 1 Rp 30,582,077,778 Rp 90,922,222 Rp 90,922,222
Rp (80,161,112) 1 Rp 30,318,444,443 Rp 156,755,557 Rp 156,755,557
Rp 47,088,889 1 Rp 30,714,361,112 Rp (2,011,112) Rp 2,011,112
Rp 238,149,999 1 Rp 31,382,999,998 Rp 149,550,002 Rp 149,550,002
Rp 108,427,778 1 Rp 31,142,938,890 Rp (609,588,890) Rp 609,588,890
Rp 160,283,333 1 Rp 31,477,383,333 Rp (72,833,333) Rp 72,833,333
1 Rp 31,477,383,333
2 Rp 31,637,666,666
3 Rp 31,797,949,999
4 Rp 31,958,233,332
5 Rp 32,118,516,665
6 Rp 32,278,799,998
7 Rp 32,439,083,331
8 Rp 32,599,366,664
9 Rp 32,759,649,997
10 Rp 32,919,933,330
11 Rp 33,080,216,663
12 Rp 33,240,499,996
13 Rp 33,400,783,329
14 Rp 33,561,066,662
15 Rp 33,721,349,995
16 Rp 33,881,633,328
17 Rp 34,041,916,661
18 Rp 34,202,199,994
19 Rp 34,362,483,327
20 Rp 34,522,766,660
21 Rp 34,683,049,993
22 Rp 34,843,333,326
23 Rp 35,003,616,659
24 Rp 35,163,899,992
25 Rp 35,324,183,325
26 Rp 35,484,466,658
27 Rp 35,644,749,991
28 Rp 35,805,033,324
29 Rp 35,965,316,657
30 Rp 36,125,599,990
31 Rp 36,285,883,323
32 Rp 36,446,166,656
33 Rp 36,606,449,989
34 Rp 36,766,733,322
35 Rp 36,927,016,655
36 Rp 37,087,299,988
37 Rp 37,247,583,321
38 Rp 37,407,866,654
39 Rp 37,568,149,987
40 Rp 37,728,433,320
41 Rp 37,888,716,653
42 Rp 38,048,999,986
43 Rp 38,209,283,319
44 Rp 38,369,566,652
45 Rp 38,529,849,985
46 Rp 38,690,133,318
47 Rp 38,850,416,651
48 Rp 39,010,699,984
49 Rp 39,170,983,317
50 Rp 39,331,266,650
51 Rp 39,491,549,983
52 Rp 39,651,833,316
53 Rp 39,812,116,649
54 Rp 39,972,399,982
55 Rp 40,132,683,315
56 Rp 40,292,966,648
57 Rp 40,453,249,981
58 Rp 40,613,533,314
59 Rp 40,773,816,647
60 Rp 40,934,099,980
-2726538882 7442761120
 bt m F(t+m) et |et|

Rp 172,877,777 1 Rp 18,500,655,554 Rp (84,905,554) Rp 84,905,554

Rp 29,633,333 1 Rp 18,143,216,666 Rp (169,216,666) Rp 169,216,666
Rp 36,150,000 1 Rp 18,245,950,000 Rp (114,750,000) Rp 114,750,000
Rp 46,700,000 1 Rp 18,292,250,000 Rp 199,100,000 Rp 199,100,000
Rp 95,700,000 1 Rp 18,521,200,000 Rp (154,350,000) Rp 154,350,000
Rp 123,850,000 1 Rp 18,697,800,000 Rp (205,700,000) Rp 205,700,000
Rp 81,988,889 1 Rp 18,676,911,112 Rp 2,938,888 Rp 2,938,888
Rp 109,566,666 1 Rp 18,864,999,999 Rp (99,349,999) Rp 99,349,999
Rp 70,811,111 1 Rp 18,827,238,889 Rp (215,888,889) Rp 215,888,889
Rp (7,505,556) 1 Rp 18,639,472,222 Rp (53,022,222) Rp 53,022,222
Rp (4,966,667) 1 Rp 18,652,666,666 Rp 137,333,334 Rp 137,333,334
Rp 98,372,222 1 Rp 19,002,844,444 Rp 39,005,556 Rp 39,005,556
Rp 122,788,889 1 Rp 19,164,111,112 Rp (240,361,112) Rp 240,361,112
Rp 81,422,222 1 Rp 19,147,294,444 Rp (159,544,444) Rp 159,544,444
Rp 53,727,778 1 Rp 19,139,538,890 Rp 45,211,110 Rp 45,211,110
Rp 116,777,778 1 Rp 19,416,988,890 Rp (39,188,890) Rp 39,188,890
Rp 208,416,666 1 Rp 19,837,216,666 Rp (138,616,666) Rp 138,616,666
Rp 145,416,666 1 Rp 19,810,866,666 Rp (327,166,666) Rp 327,166,666
Rp 158,505,555 1 Rp 20,024,977,777 Rp (83,377,777) Rp 83,377,777
Rp 73,255,555 1 Rp 19,870,394,444 Rp (124,044,444) Rp 124,044,444
Rp 132,005,555 1 Rp 20,177,944,444 Rp (124,094,444) Rp 124,094,444
Rp 2,016,666 1 Rp 19,825,966,666 Rp (160,366,666) Rp 160,366,666
Rp (74,700,000) 1 Rp 19,606,483,334 Rp (58,283,334) Rp 58,283,334
Rp (77,816,667) 1 Rp 19,516,550,000 Rp 286,200,000 Rp 286,200,000
Rp 2,288,888 1 Rp 19,722,044,443 Rp 79,405,557 Rp 79,405,557
Rp 182,183,333 1 Rp 20,332,466,666 Rp (32,366,666) Rp 32,366,666
Rp 154,122,222 1 Rp 20,382,211,111 Rp (261,861,111) Rp 261,861,111
Rp 100,066,667 1 Rp 20,371,266,668 Rp (278,316,668) Rp 278,316,668
Rp (22,622,223) 1 Rp 20,043,372,221 Rp 9,177,779 Rp 9,177,779
Rp 70,727,777 1 Rp 20,377,422,221 Rp 184,977,779 Rp 184,977,779
Rp 151,338,888 1 Rp 20,691,977,776 Rp (139,027,776) Rp 139,027,776
Rp 223,822,222 1 Rp 21,096,011,111 Rp (266,261,111) Rp 266,261,111
1 Rp 21,096,011,111
2 Rp 21,319,833,333
3 Rp 21,543,655,555
4 Rp 21,767,477,777
5 Rp 21,991,299,999
6 Rp 22,215,122,221
7 Rp 22,438,944,443
8 Rp 22,662,766,665
9 Rp 22,886,588,887
10 Rp 23,110,411,109
11 Rp 23,334,233,331
12 Rp 23,558,055,553
13 Rp 23,781,877,775
14 Rp 24,005,699,997
15 Rp 24,229,522,219
16 Rp 24,453,344,441
17 Rp 24,677,166,663
18 Rp 24,900,988,885
19 Rp 25,124,811,107
20 Rp 25,348,633,329
21 Rp 25,572,455,551
22 Rp 25,796,277,773
23 Rp 26,020,099,995
24 Rp 26,243,922,217
25 Rp 26,467,744,439
26 Rp 26,691,566,661
27 Rp 26,915,388,883
28 Rp 27,139,211,105
29 Rp 27,363,033,327
30 Rp 27,586,855,549
31 Rp 27,810,677,771
32 Rp 28,034,499,993
33 Rp 28,258,322,215
34 Rp 28,482,144,437
35 Rp 28,705,966,659
36 Rp 28,929,788,881
37 Rp 29,153,611,103
38 Rp 29,377,433,325
39 Rp 29,601,255,547
40 Rp 29,825,077,769
41 Rp 30,048,899,991
42 Rp 30,272,722,213
43 Rp 30,496,544,435
44 Rp 30,720,366,657
45 Rp 30,944,188,879
46 Rp 31,168,011,101
47 Rp 31,391,833,323
48 Rp 31,615,655,545
49 Rp 31,839,477,767
50 Rp 32,063,299,989
51 Rp 32,287,122,211
52 Rp 32,510,944,433
53 Rp 32,734,766,655
54 Rp 32,958,588,877
55 Rp 33,182,411,099
56 Rp 33,406,233,321
57 Rp 33,630,055,543
58 Rp 33,853,877,765
59 Rp 34,077,699,987
60 Rp 34,301,522,209
-2546711102 4513411108
 et^2 Pe(%) |Pe|

Rp 55,572,823,786,954,300 0.01 0.01

Rp 197,353,126,024,869,000 -0.02 0.02
Rp 9,511,667,481,617,280 0.00 0.00
Rp 1,754,679,021,654,321 0.00 0.00
Rp 143,615,735,455,022,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 19,245,396,666,272,800 0.00 0.00
Rp 4,908,559,414,676,544 0.00 0.00
Rp 61,124,320,451,822,200 -0.01 0.01
Rp 15,389,780,974,469,100 0.00 0.00
Rp 188,375,289,189,817,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 71,422,562,500,000,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 55,368,703,743,246,900 -0.01 0.01
Rp 22,143,093,496,469,100 0.00 0.00
Rp 8,008,261,254,454,321 0.00 0.00
Rp 5,763,340,480,222,224 0.00 0.00
Rp 357,411,336,005,077,000 0.02 0.02
Rp 120,120,007,406,556,000 0.01 0.01
Rp 516,290,152,069,156,000 -0.02 0.02
Rp 275,164,359,173,554,000 -0.02 0.02
Rp 202,113,649,022,224 0.00 0.00
Rp 15,078,475,968,446,900 0.00 0.00
Rp 66,899,822,500,000,000 0.01 0.01
Rp 22,072,054,246,355,600 0.00 0.00
Rp 185,871,160,963,217,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 320,409,964,200,001 0.00 0.00
Rp 22,829,531,007,669,100 0.00 0.00
Rp 8,266,850,453,417,284 0.00 0.00
Rp 24,572,304,650,380,200 0.01 0.01
Rp 4,044,571,476,544 0.00 0.00
Rp 22,365,203,098,200,000 0.00 0.00
Rp 371,598,614,811,432,000 -0.02 0.02
Rp 5,304,694,395,888,889 0.00 0.00
2873928474875620000 -0.09 0.25
 et^2 Pe(%) |Pe|

Rp 7,208,953,100,046,916 0.00 0.00

Rp 28,634,280,052,155,600 -0.01 0.01
Rp 13,167,562,500,000,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 39,640,810,000,000,000 0.01 0.01
Rp 23,823,922,500,000,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 42,312,490,000,000,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 8,637,062,676,544 0.00 0.00
Rp 9,870,422,301,300,000 -0.01 0.01
Rp 46,608,012,393,654,300 -0.01 0.01
Rp 2,811,356,025,817,284 0.00 0.00
Rp 18,860,444,627,555,600 0.01 0.01
Rp 1,521,433,398,869,136 0.00 0.00
Rp 57,773,464,161,876,500 -0.01 0.01
Rp 25,454,429,611,269,100 -0.01 0.01
Rp 2,044,044,467,432,100 0.00 0.00
Rp 1,535,769,099,432,100 0.00 0.00
Rp 19,214,580,092,955,600 -0.01 0.01
Rp 107,038,027,341,556,000 -0.02 0.02
Rp 6,951,853,697,461,729 0.00 0.00
Rp 15,387,024,087,269,100 -0.01 0.01
Rp 15,399,431,031,669,100 -0.01 0.01
Rp 25,717,467,563,955,600 -0.01 0.01
Rp 3,396,947,022,155,556 0.00 0.00
Rp 81,910,440,000,000,000 0.01 0.01
Rp 6,305,242,482,480,249 0.00 0.00
Rp 1,047,601,067,955,556 0.00 0.00
Rp 68,571,241,454,154,300 -0.01 0.01
Rp 77,460,167,686,622,200 -0.01 0.01
Rp 84,231,627,372,841 0.00 0.00
Rp 34,216,778,723,772,800 0.01 0.01
Rp 19,328,722,499,506,200 -0.01 0.01
Rp 70,894,979,230,954,300 -0.01 0.01
874200766911926000 -0.13 0.23
Disgagregasi produk perusahaan Disgagregasi produk pesaing
Harga Rp 150,000 Rp 100,000 Harga
Proporsi 0.59 0.41 Proporsi
Periode Forecast Meja Kursi Periode Forecast
1 Rp 31,477,383,333 123812 129058 1 Rp 21,096,011,111
2 Rp 31,637,666,666 124442 129715 2 Rp 21,319,833,333
3 Rp 31,797,949,999 125072 130372 3 Rp 21,543,655,555
4 Rp 31,958,233,332 125703 131029 4 Rp 21,767,477,777
5 Rp 32,118,516,665 126333 131686 5 Rp 21,991,299,999
6 Rp 32,278,799,998 126964 132344 6 Rp 22,215,122,221
7 Rp 32,439,083,331 127594 133001 7 Rp 22,438,944,443
8 Rp 32,599,366,664 128225 133658 8 Rp 22,662,766,665
9 Rp 32,759,649,997 128855 134315 9 Rp 22,886,588,887
10 Rp 32,919,933,330 129486 134972 10 Rp 23,110,411,109
11 Rp 33,080,216,663 130116 135629 11 Rp 23,334,233,331
12 Rp 33,240,499,996 130746 136287 12 Rp 23,558,055,553
13 Rp 33,400,783,329 131377 136944 13 Rp 23,781,877,775
14 Rp 33,561,066,662 132007 137601 14 Rp 24,005,699,997
15 Rp 33,721,349,995 132638 138258 15 Rp 24,229,522,219
16 Rp 33,881,633,328 133268 138915 16 Rp 24,453,344,441
17 Rp 34,041,916,661 133899 139572 17 Rp 24,677,166,663
18 Rp 34,202,199,994 134529 140230 18 Rp 24,900,988,885
19 Rp 34,362,483,327 135160 140887 19 Rp 25,124,811,107
20 Rp 34,522,766,660 135790 141544 20 Rp 25,348,633,329
21 Rp 34,683,049,993 136420 142201 21 Rp 25,572,455,551
22 Rp 34,843,333,326 137051 142858 22 Rp 25,796,277,773
23 Rp 35,003,616,659 137681 143515 23 Rp 26,020,099,995
24 Rp 35,163,899,992 138312 144172 24 Rp 26,243,922,217
25 Rp 35,324,183,325 138942 144830 25 Rp 26,467,744,439
26 Rp 35,484,466,658 139573 145487 26 Rp 26,691,566,661
27 Rp 35,644,749,991 140203 146144 27 Rp 26,915,388,883
28 Rp 35,805,033,324 140834 146801 28 Rp 27,139,211,105
29 Rp 35,965,316,657 141464 147458 29 Rp 27,363,033,327
30 Rp 36,125,599,990 142095 148115 30 Rp 27,586,855,549
31 Rp 36,285,883,323 142725 148773 31 Rp 27,810,677,771
32 Rp 36,446,166,656 143355 149430 32 Rp 28,034,499,993
33 Rp 36,606,449,989 143986 150087 33 Rp 28,258,322,215
34 Rp 36,766,733,322 144616 150744 34 Rp 28,482,144,437
35 Rp 36,927,016,655 145247 151401 35 Rp 28,705,966,659
36 Rp 37,087,299,988 145877 152058 36 Rp 28,929,788,881
37 Rp 37,247,583,321 146508 152716 37 Rp 29,153,611,103
38 Rp 37,407,866,654 147138 153373 38 Rp 29,377,433,325
39 Rp 37,568,149,987 147769 154030 39 Rp 29,601,255,547
40 Rp 37,728,433,320 148399 154687 40 Rp 29,825,077,769
41 Rp 37,888,716,653 149029 155344 41 Rp 30,048,899,991
 42 Rp 38,048,999,986 149660 156001 42 Rp 30,272,722,213
43 Rp 38,209,283,319 150290 156659 43 Rp 30,496,544,435
44 Rp 38,369,566,652 150921 157316 44 Rp 30,720,366,657
45 Rp 38,529,849,985 151551 157973 45 Rp 30,944,188,879
46 Rp 38,690,133,318 152182 158630 46 Rp 31,168,011,101
47 Rp 38,850,416,651 152812 159287 47 Rp 31,391,833,323
48 Rp 39,010,699,984 153443 159944 48 Rp 31,615,655,545
49 Rp 39,170,983,317 154073 160602 49 Rp 31,839,477,767
50 Rp 39,331,266,650 154703 161259 50 Rp 32,063,299,989
51 Rp 39,491,549,983 155334 161916 51 Rp 32,287,122,211
52 Rp 39,651,833,316 155964 162573 52 Rp 32,510,944,433
53 Rp 39,812,116,649 156595 163230 53 Rp 32,734,766,655
54 Rp 39,972,399,982 157225 163887 54 Rp 32,958,588,877
55 Rp 40,132,683,315 157856 164545 55 Rp 33,182,411,099
56 Rp 40,292,966,648 158486 165202 56 Rp 33,406,233,321
57 Rp 40,453,249,981 159117 165859 57 Rp 33,630,055,543
58 Rp 40,613,533,314 159747 166516 58 Rp 33,853,877,765
59 Rp 40,773,816,647 160378 167173 59 Rp 34,077,699,987
60 Rp 40,934,099,980 161008 167830 60 Rp 34,301,522,209
Total Rp 2,172,344,499,390 8544585 8906643 Total Rp 1,661,925,999,600
Rp 150,000 Rp 100,000
0.58 0.42
Meja Kursi
81572 88604
82437 89544
83303 90484
84168 91424
85034 92364
85899 93304
86764 94244
87630 95184
88495 96124
89361 97064
90226 98004
91092 98944
91957 99884
92823 100824
93688 101764
94553 102705
95419 103645
96284 104585
97150 105525
98015 106465
98881 107405
99746 108345
100612 109285
101477 110225
102342 111165
103208 112105
104073 113045
104939 113985
105804 114925
106670 115865
107535 116805
108401 117745
109266 118685
110131 119626
110997 120566
111862 121506
112728 122446
113593 123386
114459 124326
115324 125266
116190 126206
 117055 127146
117920 128086
118786 129026
119651 129966
120517 130906
121382 131846
122248 132786
123113 133726
123979 134666
124844 135606
125709 136546
126575 137487
127440 138427
128306 139367
129171 140307
130037 141247
130902 142187
131768 143127
132633 144067
6426144 6980120
Hari kerja dalam satu tahun (hari) 260
Jumlah jam kerja (jam) 8

Meja Market Share 20%

Tahun Demand (Dt) Pesaing (St) Market Potensial MS KP KPT
2017 1527348 1035981 491367 20% 98274 48
2018 1618132 1160605 457527 20% 91506 44
2019 1708917 1285228 423689 20% 84738 41
2020 1799702 1409853 389849 20% 77970 38
2021 1890486 1534477 356009 20% 71202 35

Kursi Market Share 20%

Tahun Demand (Dt) Pesaing (St) Market Potensial MS KP KPT
2017 1592066 1125288 466778 20% 93356 45
2018 1686697 1260657 426040 20% 85208 41
2019 1781328 1396023 385305 20% 77061 38
2020 1875960 1531392 344568 20% 68914 34
2021 1970592 1666760 303832 20% 60767 30