4 Qiao

CFD Based Approach for VCE
Risk Assessment
2009 MKOPSC International Symposium
Anna Qiao, Steven Zhang, Asmund Huser

DNV Energy
Objective
 Determine the maximum design load at a specified
frequency
 Provide a detailed risk picture for large offshore platform
 Provide recommendations on design issues based on CFD
analysis results
© Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved 03 December 2009 Slide 2
CFD Based Approach Adopted
Start
CFD references database Geometry modelling FLACS Probabilistic

distribution of
leak sizes,
wind rose, etc.
CFD explosion CFD ventilation and

dispersion
Explosion load Ventilation and cloud size

Response surfaces distribution
Probabilistic
assessment
EXPRESS
Acceptec criteria,
QRA, design
Major Steps
 Identification of critical leak scenarios
 CFD model (FLACS)
- Geometry model – grid calculation
- Ventilation and dispersion analysis
- Explosion analysis
 Probabilistic analysis (EXPRESS)

 Sensitivity studies
 Design recommendations
Ventilation
 Purpose
- Select the leak location,
leak rate, and wind
speed to find the largest
flammable cloud
- Determine the time to
start leak in dispersion
model
Dispersion Analysis
 Purpose
– to find the
maximum
flammable
cloud size
Dispersion Analysis
 Set up a series of scenarios
- Wind speed, wind direction, leak rate, leak direction and leak location are
varied systematically
- Select condition giving largest cloud size
90
CFD Results Buoyant Gas
80 Buoyant Gas Trend
CFD Results Dense Gas
70
Dense Gas Trend
Filling degree Q9 (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Leak rate (kg/s)
Approach Limiting CFD Runs
 Problem: CFD analyses are major calculations and time consuming
 Solution: DNV adopted a “Frozen Cloud” approach
 Assumption: a linear relation between gas concentration, c, and leak rate
and the wind speed is assumed for each leak scenario
m
c ( x, y , z ) 
u
 The effect on the flammable gas cloud size from running slightly smaller
and larger leak rates can be assessed without CFD simulation of
additional cases
Frozen Cloud Results
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Vf/V
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
R=Qg/Qa
 Case study shows that for this area, the highest filling, 60% of the process area, is
expected to occur when R=0.15 (Ratio of volume flow of combustible gas to air)
Complete Cloud Response Surface
Huser et al, OTC 12951, 2001
Explosion Analysis
 Once cloud dispersion is established, the explosion
calculation can also be executed by CFD modeling
 Consider the effect of
- Geometry: size, confinement, obstruction, minimum distance between
decks/plates, corner constant
- Gas mixture: composition, location, quantity
 Critical locations for explosion load determination

- Control rooms, vessels, columns, decks
 Critical loads is a combination of:

- The maximum pressure pulse measured on monitors is used as
reference pressure
- Maximum drag
Explosion Analysis from FLACS
Explosion Database of CFD Cases and Experiments
 19 explosion models
- One process platform (plant) for each model
- 15 to 50 explosion simulations performed in FLACS for each model
- Maximum explosion overpressure used to develop the correlations
 15 experiments
- Various module sizes
- Different congestion levels
- Different explosion venting areas
Simulation Overpressure vs. Cloud Size Trend
5/3
P ~V f
Huser et al, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 22 (2009), 324
Smart Process
Database
New Installation
Conditions New Ventilation New Dispersion New Explosion
Exceedence Curve
Frequency
Explosion Risk Analysis, EXPRESS
 Purpose – Frequency of exceeding explosion load vs the
load
 Selected critical loads are used in probabilistic analysis
 DNV Probabilistic tool EXPRESS is applied to find pressure
exceedence curves
- EXPRESS establishes a response surface using a limited number of
CFD runs
- The response surface rapidly generates the exceedance results
- Pressure on other targets are found as a linear relationship between
the reference pressure and the other target
CFD Based Approach Adopted
Start
CFD references database Geometry modelling FLACS Probabilistic

distribution of
leak sizes,
wind rose, etc.
CFD explosion CFD ventilation and

dispersion
Explosion load Ventilation and cloud size

Response surfaces distribution
Probabilistic
assessment
EXPRESS
Acceptec criteria,
QRA, design
Frequency/Probability
 Leak frequency (for each leak category)
 Probability of ignition – Time Dependent Internal Ignition Model (TDIIM)
- Pump
- Compressor
- Generator
- Electrical equipment
- Personnel
- Hot work
- Other
 Explosion frequency
Time Dependent Internal Ignition Model (TDIIM)
 Intermittent ignition sources
- The total cloud size
 Continuous ignition sources

- The increase in cloud size
Monte Carlo Simulation
 Select specific outcomes of all stochastic variables from their statistical
distributions
 Calculate ignitable time dependent cloud size and ignition probability
 Select ignition time from the ignition time probability distribution
 Calculate explosive cloud size at time of ignition
 Calculate explosion loading from explosion load response surface
Pressure Exceedence Curves
1.E-02
Accumulated frequency (1/year) .
ESD close after 60 s
ESD close after 30 s

1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-06
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
Explosion pressure load (barg)
Reduction in explosion load due to rapid initiation of ESD
Prevention/Mitigation
 Leak frequency reduction
 Localized enclosure
 Ventilation
 Deluge
 Gas detection, shutdown and blowdown
 Reduced number of ignition sources
 Blast wall
Why Method is Appropriate
 Experimental explosion results used for the development of
the correlation
 CFD results directly applied to find cloud dispersion/size and
resulting maximum explosion pressure
 Special techniques allow fewer CFD runs
- Frozen cloud approach
- Response surface approach
 Combined CFD and probabilistic analysis gives the detailed

risk picture
Typical Risk Based Design Activities for Offshore
 Explosion – FLACS & EXPRESS
 Fire – KFX, PFPro & EXPRESS
 WCI – Wind Chill Index
 Ventilation - ACH
 Gas detector location - GDOZ

4 Qiao

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

4 Qiao

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

CFD Based Approach for VCE

2009 MKOPSC International Symposium

Anna Qiao, Steven Zhang, Asmund Huser

CFD references database Geometry modelling FLACS Probabilistic

CFD explosion CFD ventilation and

Explosion load Ventilation and cloud size

 Probabilistic analysis (EXPRESS)

Huser et al, OTC 12951, 2001

 Critical locations for explosion load determination

 Critical loads is a combination of:

Conditions New Ventilation New Dispersion New Explosion

CFD references database Geometry modelling FLACS Probabilistic

CFD explosion CFD ventilation and

Explosion load Ventilation and cloud size

 Continuous ignition sources

ESD close after 60 s

ESD close after 30 s

Reduction in explosion load due to rapid initiation of ESD

 Combined CFD and probabilistic analysis gives the detailed

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen