EE2401 – Power System Operation and Control

UNIT I - INTRODUCTION

System load – variation – load characteristics –load curves and load duration curve (daily,
weekly and annually) – load factor – diversity factor. Importance of load forecasting and
simple techniques of forecasting. An overview of power system operation and control and the
role of computers in the implementation. (Qualitative treatment with block diagram).

SYSTEM LOAD

The system load depends on the consumers. The consumers may be residential or
domestic, Commercial, Industry, Agriculture, Municipality or traction.

 Residential Loads:
The residential loads includes the devices in homes namely the light, fan, refrigerator,
air conditioners, water heaters etc., It is influences the peak load during both the night and
day time.
 Commercial loads:
The commercial loads include the hotels, offices, shops, hospitals etc. It has high peak
during the morning and evening times.
 Industrial loads:
The industrial loads include the small scale industries and large scale industries. The
load remains constant as the industries run on shifts.
 Irrigation loads (Agriculture Load):
It is due to the irrigation. It influences the load during day times as water is pumped
during day times.
 Traction Loads:
It includes the electric trains, trolleys. The load is peak during all the times.
 Municipal Loads:
It includes the street lights, flood lights, water and drainage pumps. The water and
drainage pumps are used during the half peak hours. The street lighting remains constant
from 6 a.m to 6 p.m.
 LOAD VARIATION

 The load variation in the power system is due to the uncertain load patterns and uncertain
demand. The load varies from time to time.
 The load variation is due to the weather changes like temperature, wind, rain and
humidity.
 Due to the load variation:
1. Advanced control equipments are required.
2. The cost of the production of electrical energy increases.

Load Characteristics:

Load:

The load taps energy from the power system network. The loads are of various ranges.
The different types of loads are the motor devices, heating and lighting loads and electronic
loads. The load is classified based on the rating of the device, phase, usage and consumption.
The different types of loads are:
i. Impedance type Load (Lumped Load)
ii. Composite Load
iii. Motor Load
Static Characteristics of Loads:
The static characteristics of load are the relation between the active power, reactive
and the voltage or frequency which is determined at slow variation in operating conditions of
the load in its steady state.
Dynamic Characteristics of Loads:
The static characteristics of load are the relation between the active power, reactive
and the voltage or frequency which is determined at fast variation in operating conditions of
the load.
𝑑|𝑉| 𝑑𝑓
𝑃 = 𝑃 𝑉 ,𝑓 , ,
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡
Static characteristics of Loads:
Impedance type loads:
 It includes the lighting and heating loads.
 The lighting and heating load does not consume reactive power.
  The active power consumed by heating load is proportional to |V|2 as the
resistance remains constant when the voltage changes,
 The active power of the lighting loads is independent of the frequency, So it is
proportional to |V|1.6.
 In case of the lumped load
𝑆 = 𝑉𝐼 ∗ = 𝑉2𝑌 ∗ = 𝑉. (𝑉/𝑅 − 𝑗𝑋𝐿)
𝑉2 𝑅+𝑗 𝑋 𝑉2
= 𝑅−𝑗 𝑋 × 𝑅+𝑗 𝑋 𝐿 = 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 . 𝑅 + 𝑗𝑋𝐿
𝐿 𝐿 𝐿

𝑉2
=> 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 . 𝑅 + 𝑗𝑋𝐿
𝐿

Equating the real and imaginary parts,

𝑉2 𝑉2
𝑃 = 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 . 𝑅 and 𝑄 = 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 . 𝑋𝐿
𝐿 𝐿

We know that, 𝑋𝐿=2𝜋𝑓𝐿

𝑉2 𝑉2
∴ 𝑃 = 𝑅 2 +(2𝜋𝑓𝐿 )2 . 𝑅 and 𝑄 = 𝑅 2 +(2𝜋𝑓𝐿 )2 . 2𝜋𝑓𝐿

 From the above equations it is known that,

i. P and Q is proportional to V2.
ii. AS frequency increases P decreases and Q increases.

|V|
Composite Loads
 The composite load is the load which comprises of both the impedance type loads and
induction motors. It has more inductive loads than the impedance loads.
 In case of composite loads, the relationship between the voltage, real power, reactive and
the frequency depends on the incremental change in voltage and frequency.
 The change in real and reactive power is given by,
𝛿𝑃 𝛿𝑃
∆𝑃 ≈ . ∆𝑉 + . ∆𝑓
𝛿|𝑉| 𝛿𝑓
 𝛿𝑄 𝛿𝑄
∆𝑄 ≈ . ∆𝑉 + . ∆𝑓
𝛿|𝑉| 𝛿𝑓
 From the equations it is inferred that as the frequency increases, the real power increases.

Induction motor:

 The induction motor consumes both real and reactive power.

 The equation of the real and reactive power is determined from the equivalent circuit of
the induction motor.
 The equivalent circuit of the induction motor is given by:

Where, V - Voltage magnitude

Iµ - magnetizing current
Xm - Magnetizing reactance
X1 - Stator leakage reactance
X2 - Rotor leakage reactance with reference to the stator
R2 - Rotor resistance
S - Slip
 Active Power:
The active power P of the induction motor,

𝑅2 |𝑉|2 𝑅2
𝑃 = |𝐼|2 = 2 ×
𝑆 𝑅2 2
𝑆
+ 𝑋
𝑆
 Reactive Power:
The reactive power Q per phase is given by,
Q =Qµ + Qs
Where, Qµ - Magnetizing component reactive power
Qs – Component depending upon stator and rotor leakage
|𝑉|2
𝑄𝜇 = = 𝐼𝜇 |𝑉|
𝑋𝑚
 𝑄𝑠 = |𝑉|2 𝑋𝑠
Where, 𝐼𝜇 - Magnetizing current

Problem 1.1

Calculate the real power drop in a load Z = R+jX, when the voltage is increased by 5%.

|𝑉|2 |𝑉|2 𝑅 + 𝑗𝑋
𝑆 = |𝑉|2 𝑌 ∗ = = ×
𝑅 − 𝑗𝑋 𝑅 − 𝑗𝑋 𝑅 + 𝑗𝑋
|𝑉|2
 𝑃 = 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 × 𝑅

Differentiating with respect to |V|,

∆𝑃 𝜕𝑃 𝑅 2 𝑉 2𝑅 2𝑃
≅ =2𝑉 2 2
= 2 2
=
∆𝑉 𝜕𝑉 𝑅 +𝑋 |𝑉| 𝑅 + 𝑋 |𝑉|
∆𝑃 2∆𝑉
 =
𝑃 |𝑉|
 ∆𝑃 ∝ 2∆|𝑉
 5 % drop in |V|, causes 10 % drop is real power, P

Problem 1.2

Determine the effect in real power in a load R+jX, when the drop in frequency is 2%.
Let the power factor be 0.8.
|𝑉|2 |𝑉|2
We know that, 𝑃 = 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 × 𝑅 = ×𝑅
𝑅 2 +(2𝜋𝑓𝐿)2

Differentiating with respect to f,

𝜕𝑃 −1
= |𝑉|2 𝑅 × (𝑅 2 +(2𝜋𝑓𝐿)2 )2 × 2 × 2𝜋𝑓𝐿 × 2𝜋𝐿
𝜕𝑓

𝜕𝑃 −|𝑉|2 4𝑅𝑋𝜋𝐿 −|𝑉|2 2𝑅𝑋 2 −2𝑃𝑋 2

 = = = 𝑓(𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 ) Z X
𝜕𝑓 𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 𝑓(𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 )
∆𝑃 −2𝑋 2 ∆𝑓
 = (𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 ) ×
𝑃 𝑓
Ф
R
Given cos Ф = 0.8 => sin Ф=0.6
𝑋 𝑋
𝑆𝑖𝑛 Ф = = (𝑅 2 +𝑋 2 ) = 0.6
𝑧
∆𝑃 ∆𝑓 ∆𝑓
 = −2 × 0.36 = −0.72
𝑃 𝑓 𝑓
 1% of change in f affects 0.72% of P

2% change of f affects the real power by 1.44%

 LOAD CURVES AND LOAD DURATION CURVES

Load Curve:

The curve which shows the variation of the load in the power system with respect to
time is called as Load Curve.

Daily Load curve:

 The load variation over a day (i.e. 24 hours) are recorded in an half-hourly or hourly basis
and plotted with respect to time. The curve is called as daily load curve.
 The load in a power system varies from time to time.

16
Load
14
(Mw)
12

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour

Monthly Load Curve:

 Monthly load curve is obtained from the daily load curves.

 The average values of power over a month at different times of the day are plotted.
 It is used to fix the rate of energy.

Yearly Load Curve:

 Yearly load curve is obtained from the monthly load curves.
 It is used to determine the annual load factor.

Importance of load curve:

 It is used to prepare the operation schedule of the units.

 The size and number of units are determined based on the load curve.
  The unit generated per day is calculated from the daily load curve.
Unit generated per day (in Kwhr) = Area under the daily load curve
 Maximum demand is obtained from the daily load curve. The maximum demand
is the corresponding load to the peak point of the curve.
 Average load is determined

Area under the daily load curve (in KwHr)

Average load=
24
 Load factor is determined from the area under the load curve and area of the
rectangle in which the load curve is contained.
Average Load Average load × 24
Load factor = =
Maximum Demand Maximum Deand × 24
Area under the daily load curve
=
Total Area in which the load curve is containd
Definitions:

i. Connected Load:
The sum of continuous ratings of all the equipments connected in the power
systems is called as connected load.
ii. Maximum Demand:
The maximum of all the demands that have occurred during a given period is
called as maximum demand.
iii. Demand factor:
Demand factor is the ratio of the maximum demand to the connected load.
Maximum Demand
Demand Factor =
Connected Load
 The demand factor value will be normally less than 1.
 The capacity of the equipments is determined based on the demand factor.
iv. Average demand (Average Load):
The average of loads occurring on the power system in a given period is
known as Average demand.
 The period may be a day or a month or a year.
No. of units generated in a day (in KwHr)
 Daily Average load= 24
No. of units generated in a Month (in KwHr)
 Monthly Average load= Number of hours in a month
No. of units generated in a year (in KwHr)
 Yearly Average load= Number of hours in a year (8760)
v. Load factor:
Load factor is the ratio of average load to the maximum demand during a
given period.
Average Load Average load × T
Load factor = =
Maximum Demand Maximum Deand × T
 The load factor may be a daily load factor ( T is 24 hours) , monthly load factor (T
is number of hours in a month) or yearly load factor (T is 8760 hours).
  Load factor is always less than 1.
 The load factor is used to determine the overall cost per unit generated. If the load
factor is lesser then the cost per unit generated will be higher.
vi. Diversity factor:
Diversity factor is the ratio of the sum of individual maximum demands to the
maximum demand on the power station.
Sum of individula maximum demand
Diversity Factor =
Maximum demand on the power station
 Diversity factor is usually greater than 1.
 Greater the diversity factor, lesser is the cost of generation per unit.
vii. Plant capacity factor:
Plant capacity factor is the ratio of the actual power generated to the maximum
power that could be generated over a particular period (T).
Actual power generated
Plant Capacity factor =
Maximum power that could be generated

Average Demand
=
Plant Capacity
 It is the indication of the reserve capacity of the plant.
viii. Annual Plant capacity:
Annual Plant capacity factor is the ratio of the actual power generated to the
maximum power that could be generated over an year
Annual Power Generated (KwHr)
Annual Plant Capacity =
Plant Capacity × 8760
ix. Reserve capacity:
Reserve capacity is the difference between the Plant capacity and the
maximum demand.
Reserve Capacity = Plant Capacity − Maximum Demand
x. Plant use factor:
Plant use factor is the ratio of power generated (in KwHr) to the product of
plant capacity and the number of hours for which the plant was in operation.
Power Generated by the Plant
Plant Use factor =
Plant capacit × Hours of operation
Notes:
 If maximum demand = Plant capacity,
Then load factor = plant capacity factor
Reserve capacity = zero
 Power generated (KwHr) from maximum demand and load factor:
Average Load
Load factor =
Maximum Demand
 Average Load = Load factor × Maximum Demand
∴ Power generated per annum = Average Load × No. of hours in a year
 = Load factor × Maximum Demand × 8760
Load Duration Curve:
 Load duration curve is obtained from the load curve.
 The load duration curve is obtained by arranging the load in descending magnitude and
by drawing with respect to time.
 Load duration curve is used to determine the number of hours a particular load has
prevailed.
 The load duration curve can be extended for any period (T).
 The load duration curve for one year (8760 hours) is called as the annual load duration
curve.
 The area under the load curve is equal to the area under the load duration curve.

PROBLEMS

1. The maximum demand is 100 Mw and the annual load factor is 40%. Calculate the
total power generated.
Power generated per annum = Load factor × Maximum Demand × 8760
= 0.4 × 100 × 106 × 8760 = 3504 × 105 KwHr

2. A generating station has a load of 43 Mw; maximum demand is 20Mw and unit
generated per annum is 61.5 × 106 Kwhr. Calculate the demand factor and load
factor.
Maximum Demand 20
Demand Factor = = = 0.465
Connected Load 43
No. of units generated in a year (in KwHr) 61.5 × 106
Annual Average load= =
Number of hours in a year (8760) 8760
=7020 Kw
Average Load 7020 × 10 3
Load factor = Maximum = = 0.351 = 35.1%
Demand 20×10 6

3. The maximum demand of a generating station is 25 Mw, load factor is 60%, plant
capacity factor is 50% and the plant use factor is 72%. Find the reserve capacity,
daily energy generated and maximum energy that could be produced daily.

 Reserve Capacity
Average Load
Load factor =
Maximum Demand
 Average load = Load factor × Maximum Demand = 0.6 × 25 =15 Mw
Average Demand
Plant capacity factor =
Plant Capacity
Average Demand 15
 Plant capacity = Plant = 0.5 = 30Mw
Capacity factor
Reserve capacity of plant = Plant capacity – maximum demand = 30 -25 = 5 Mw
 Daily energy generated:
Daily energy generated = Average demand ×24 = 15×24 = 360 MwHr
  Maximum energy that could be produced:

Power Generated by the Plant

Plant Use factor =
Plant capacity × Hours of operation

360
 0.72 = Plant capacity
 Power capacity = 360/ 0.72 = 500Mw

4. A diesel station supplies the following loads:

Industrial consumer = 1500 kw
Commercial consumers = 750 kw
Domestic power = 100 kw
Domestic light = 450 kw
Calculate the diversity factor and annual load factor if the maximum demand is
2500 kW and the power generated per year is 45 × 105 kWHr.
Sum of individula maximum demand
Diversity Factor =
Maximum demand on the power station
1500 +750+100+450
= = 1.12
2500
No. of units generated in a year (in KwHr) 45 × 105
Average load= = = 513.7kW
Number of hours in a year (8760) 8760

Average Load 513.7

Load factor = = = 0.205 = 20.5%
Maximum Demand 2500

5. Draw the load curve for the load data of a generating station given below:

Duration 0-6 6-10 10-12 12-16 16-20 20-24

(Hrs)
Load 20 25 30 25 35 20
(Mw)

Determine Maximum demand, Units generated per day, Average Load and Load
factor.

Maximum Demand = 35 Mw
 Units generated per day = (6×20) + (4×25) + (2×30) + (4×25) + (4×35) +(4×20)
= 600 Mw
Average Load:
No. of units generated in a day (in KwHr) 600 × 103
Daily Average load= =
24 24
= 25000 𝑘𝑊
Load factor:
Average Load 25
Load factor = = = 0.714 = 71.4%
Maximum Demand 35
6. A power system whose diversity factor is 1.5 have the following load:
Load Maximum demand Diversity factor of Demand factor
(Mw) the group
Domestic 10 1.2 0.8
Commercial 30 1.3 0.9
Industrial 50 1.35 0.95
Determine the maximum demand and the connected loads of each type.
Maximum Demand:
Total maximum demand of Loads = 10 + 30 + 50 = 90 = 90000kW
Maximum Demand = Total maximum demand / System diversity factor
= 90000/1.5 = 60000 kW
Connected loads of each type:
Domestic Load:
maximum domestic demand
Diversity Factor =
Maximum demand of domestic load
 Maximum domestic demand = Diversity factor ×Maximum demand of domestic load
= 1.2 × 10000 = 12000 kW
maximum domestic demand 12000
Connected Domestic load = = = 15000kW
Demand factor of domestic load 0.8

Commercial Load:
maximum commercial demand
Diversity Factor =
Maximum demand of commercial load
 Maximum domestic demand = Diversity factor× Maximum demand of commercial
load
= 1.3 × 30000 = 39000 kW
maximum commercial demand 39000
Connected commercial load = =
Demand factor of commercial load 0.9
= 4333.33 kW
Industrial Load:
maximum industrial demand
Diversity Factor =
Maximum demand of industrial load
 Maximum industrial demand = Diversity factor× Maximum demand of industrial
load
= 1.35 × 50000 = 67500 kW
 maximum industrial demand 67500
Connected commercial load = =
Demand factor of industrial load 0.95
= 71052.63 kW
7. The demands (daily) of three consumers are as follows:
Time Consumer 1 (W) Consumer 2 (W) Consumer 3 (W)
12 p.m to 8 a.m - 200 -
8 a.m to 2 p.m 600 - 200
2 p.m to 4 p.m 200 1000 1200
4 p.m to 10 p.m 800 - -
10 p.m to 12 p.m - 200 200

Find the maximum demand of individual consumer, load factor of individual

consumer, diversity factor and load factor of the system by drawing the load curve.

Maximum demand of individual consumer:

Maximum demand of consumer 1 = 800 W
Maximum demand of consumer 2 = 1000 W
Maximum demand of consumer 3 = 1200 W
Load factor of individual consumer:
Energy consumed per day
Load factor =
Maximum Demand × T
600 × 6 + 200 × 2 + (800 × 6)
Load factor of consumer 1 = = 0.458 = 45.8%
800 × 24
200 × 8 + 1000 × 2 + (200 × 2)
Load factor of consumer 2 = = 0.16 = 16.7%
1000 × 24
200 × 6 + 1200 × 2 + (200 × 2)
Load factor of consumer 3 = = 0.13 = 13.8%
1200 × 24
Diversity factor:
Maximum demand of the system occurs at 2 to 4 p.m.
Maximum demand of the system = 200 + 1000 + 1200 = 2400W
Sum of individula maximum demand 800+1000 +1200
Diversity Factor = = = 1.25
Maximum demand of the system 2400
Load factor of the system:
Energy consumed per day 8800 + 4000 + 4000
Load factor = = = 0.291 = 29.1%
Maximum Demand × T 2400 × 24
 LOAD FORECASTING

 Load forecasting is the process of estimating the active load ahead of the load
occurrence.
 It plays an important role in the process of planning, operation and control of the
power system.
o It reflects the future and current trends of the load variations.
o It influences the revenue. If the forecast is low it leads to low revenue and if the
forecast is high it leads to financial problems due to the excessive expense over the
generation and distribution.
 Forecasting intervals are called as the lead time.
 The type of forecasting, lead time and application is:
Forecast Lead time Application or Need
Very short Few seconds to Real time control, Real time security
term several minutes evaluation, Generation and distribution
scheduling
Short term Half an hour to a few Allocation of spinning reserve, Unit
hours commitment, maintenance scheduling.
Medium Few days to a few Planning for seasonal peak-winter, summer.
term weeks.
Long term Few months to a few To plan the growth of the generation capacity.
years.

o Forecasting Problem:
o Let Y(k) be the total demand, k =1,2,3..

Where, K is the discrete time

o If k refers to the present time, then Y(k+j) refers to the future load demand with j
as the lead time.
o The forecasting problem is therefore a process of estimating the value of Y(k+j)
by processing adequate data for the past demand
 Load forecasting techniques:
o Load forecasting can be done using various techniques.
o Each technique is superior over the other depending on the load variations.
o Approaches to load forecasting are:
 Total load approach
 Component approach
o It is assumed that the load supplied by a given system matches the demand at all
the time.
o The major problem in the load forecasting is choosing a best model for the past
load behaviour.
o For choosing a best model the load model at a given point of time is decomposed
into number of distinct components. The component may be the industrial,
agriculture, commercial, weather conditions etc.. The decomposition is done as:
Y(k) = Yd(k)+Ys(k)
Where, d refers to the deterministic part and s refers to the stochastic part of the
demand.
o The load forecasting technique are based on
i. Exploration
ii. Correlation
iii. Combination of both
o The techniques are further classified as deterministic, probabilistic and stochastic.
o Exploration Technique:
 Exploration is based on the curve fitting based on the basic historical data.
 The historical data is adjusted to reflect the growth trend itself.
 The standard function used are
i. Straight line y=ax+b
ii. Parabola y= a+bx+cx2
iii. S-Curve y= a+bx+cx2+dx3
iv. Exponential y= cedx
v. Gempertz y= ln-1(a+cedx)
 The most preferred exploration technique is the least square method.
 The technique is a deterministic exploration if the random error in data or
in analytical model is not accounted
 The technique is a probabilistic technique is the results are quantified with
mean, variance, etc.,
 The result obtained can be enhanced using some regression models.
 o Correlation Technique:
 Correlation technique relates the system load to various demographic and
economic factors.
 The factors are population, weather, establishments etc..
 Advantage:
The relation between the load growth pattern and other factors are
considered by the forecaster.
 Disadvantage:
Measuring the other demographic factors is too hard
None of the analytical techniques are effective in this technique.
More experience is required for the forecaster.

Simple load forecasting Technique

Curve fitting -Straight line:

The straight line equation is,

𝒚 = 𝒂𝒙 + 𝒃
𝐸 = 𝑦 − (𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏)
𝐸𝑖 = 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) ---- (1)

Squaring on both sides,

𝐸𝑖2 = [𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏)]2 ---- (2)
𝑇𝐸 = 𝐸𝑖2 = [𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏)]2 ---- (3)

Differentiating (3) with respect to a and b,

𝑑𝑇 𝐸
= 2 [𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏)] (−𝑥𝑖 ) ---- (4)
𝑑𝑎
𝑑𝑇 𝐸
= 2 [𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏)] . 1 --- (5)
𝑑𝑏

Equating (4) and (5) to 0,

2 [𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏)] −𝑥𝑖 = 0

− 𝑦𝑖𝑥 𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 2 + 𝑏𝑥𝑖 ) = 0 ---- (6)

𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) = 0 --- (7)

 From (6) and (7),

𝑦𝑖𝑥 𝑖 𝑥𝑖 2 𝑥𝑖 𝑎
= ---- (8)
𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 1 𝑏

Curve fitting – Parabola:

The equation of the parabola is given by,

𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2

𝐸𝑖 = 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2 )

Squaring on both sides,

𝐸𝑖 2 = 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2 ) 2

𝑁 2 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2 ) 2
= 𝑇𝐸 ----- (1)

Differentiating equation (1) with respect to a, b, and c and equate to 0,

𝑁
𝑑𝑇𝐸
=2 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2 ) × −1 = 0
𝑑𝑎
𝑖=1

𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 2
 − 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑏𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑐𝑥𝑖 =0
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 2
 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑎 + 𝑖=1 𝑏𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑐𝑥𝑖 =0 ---- (2)
𝑁
𝑑𝑇𝐸
=2 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2 ) × −𝑥 = 0
𝑑𝑏
𝑖=1
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 2 𝑁 3
 − 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑏𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑐𝑥𝑖 =0
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 2 𝑁 3
 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑏𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑐𝑥𝑖 --- (3)
𝑁
𝑑𝑇𝐸
=2 𝑦𝑖 − (𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐𝑥 2 ) × −𝑥 2 = 0
𝑑𝑐
𝑖=1
𝑁 2 𝑁 2 𝑁 3 𝑁 4
 − 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑏𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑐𝑥𝑖 =0
𝑁 2 𝑁 2 𝑁 3 𝑁 4
 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑏𝑥𝑖 + 𝑖=1 𝑐𝑥𝑖 --- (4)
 From equations (2) ,(3) and (4),
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 2
𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑁 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑎
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁 2 𝑁 3 𝑏
𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
𝑁 2 𝑁 2 𝑁 3 𝑁 4 𝑐
𝑖=1 𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖

Curve fitting – Exponential:

The exponential equation is given by,

𝑦 = 𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑥

Taking ln on both sides,

𝑙𝑛𝑦 = 𝑙𝑛𝑐 + 𝑎𝑥 ---- (1)

Let 𝑙𝑛𝑦 = 𝑍 and 𝑙𝑛𝑐 = 𝑏

The equation (1) becomes 𝑍 = 𝑏 + 𝑎𝑥 => 𝑍 = 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏

𝐸𝑖 = 𝑍𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏)

𝐸𝑖2 = 𝑍𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) 2

𝑁 2 𝑁 2
𝑖=1 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑍𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) = 𝑇𝐸 --- (2)

Differentiating equation (2) with respect to a and b and equating to 0,

𝑁
𝑑𝑇𝐸
=2 𝑍𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) × −1 = 0
𝑑𝑎
𝑖=1

𝑁
 𝑖=1 −𝑍𝑖 + 𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) = 0
𝑁 𝑁
 𝑖=1 𝑍𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑥𝑖 +𝑏 --- (3)

𝑁
𝑑𝑇𝐸
=2 𝑍𝑖 − (𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) × −𝑥𝑖 = 0
𝑑𝑏
𝑖=1

𝑁
 𝑖=1 −𝑍𝑖 𝑥𝑖 + 𝑎𝑥𝑖 2 + 𝑏𝑥𝑖 ) = 0
𝑁 𝑁 2
 𝑖=1 𝑍𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 𝑖=1 𝑎𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏 𝑥𝑖 --- (4)

From equation (3) and (4),

 𝑁 𝑁 𝑁

𝑍𝑖 𝑥𝑖 𝑥𝑖 2 𝑥𝑖
𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑖=1 𝑎
=
𝑁 𝑁 𝑏
𝑍𝑖 𝑥𝑖 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑖=1
𝑁 𝑁 2 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑎
 =
𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 𝑁 𝑙𝑛𝑐

Problem:

The data of annual peak load of a plant is given in table below:

Year 1982 1983 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994
Load
870 950 1115 1300 1380 1430 1530 1670 1850 2040
(Mw)
Predict the peak load of the year 1997 using the least square fitting technique.

Solution: (Using Straight Line method)

x 0 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 11 12
y 870 950 1115 1300 1380 1430 1530 1670 1850 2040

In straight line technique,

𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 𝑥𝑖 2 𝑥𝑖 𝑎
= --- (1)
𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 1 𝑏

𝑥𝑖 = 0 + 1 + 3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 11 + 12 = 62

𝑦𝑖 = 870 + 950 + 1115 + 1300 + 1380 + 1430 + 1530 + 1670 + 1850 + 2040
=14135

𝑦𝑖 𝑥𝑖 = 870 × 0 + 950 × 1 + 1115 × 3 + 1300 × 5 + 1380 × 6 +

1430 × 7 + 1530 × 8 + 1670 × 9 + 1850 × 11 + (2040 × 12) = 101185

𝑥𝑖 2 = 0 + 12 + 32 + 52 + 62 + 72 + 82 + 92 + 112 + 122 = 𝟓𝟑𝟎

N =10

Substituting the values in (1),

101185 530 62 𝑎
=
14135 62 10 𝑏

 a = 93 and b= 836.9
The equation of a straight line is
𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑏;
Where, x is the difference in year between the start year of the data and the year of
forecast
𝑦 = 93 × 15 + 836.9 ≈ 2250𝑀𝑊
The forecasted demand of the year 1997 is 2250 MW.

OVERVIEW OF POWER SYSTEM OPERATION AND CONTROL

 In power system the electrical energy is generated using available resources and is
transmitted and distributed to the point of consumption.
 Requirements of Power System:
1. The electrical power generated should be economical.
2. The demand should be met.
3. The quality of power of power should be good.
4. Should have adequate spinning reserve to meet the variations in real and reactive
power demand.
 The power system should be operated such that the demand is met and the quality of
the power is within the tolerance. The quality of the power signifies the constant
frequency, constant voltage and the reliability level. The power quality is affected by
switching surges, lighting, Load shedding, Interferences, Increase or decrease in load
etc.
 The power system is controlled in various levels in the Plant, System and
Transmissions. Therefore the power system control is divided into:
a. Plant level control (Generating unit control)
b. System generation control
c. Transmission control
 Plant level control (Generating unit control):
The plant level control comprises of
a. Governor control or prime mover control
b. Automatic voltage regulator (AVR) or excitation control.
 a. Governor control:
 Governor control is associated with the
 Speed regulation of the governors
 System variables like boiler pressure, temperature, flow.
 The speed regulation varies with respect to the change in load. In case of
increase in load, the speed of the unit decreases. So the governor senses the
speed and increases the input to the turbine.
b. Automatic Voltage Regulator (AVR):
 AVR is associated with the
 Voltage control
 Reactive power
 The automatic voltage regulator controls the excitation of the generator and
maintains the voltage and reactive power with in the tolerable limits.
 System Level control:
 The system level control
i. Maintains the frequency according to the load variations
ii. Maintains the system voltage
iii. Balances the total system generation by meeting the demand and losses
 The system level control comprises if
a. Load frequency control
b. Economic Dispatch control
c. System voltage control
d. Security control
a. Load Frequency Control (LFC):
 As the system load changes the speed of all the turbine generating systems
changes, which in turn leads to the change in frequency.
 So the main objective of the LFC is to maintain the frequency within the
tolerable limit for the load change in the system.
 LFC control is divided into Primary control and Secondary control.
 Primary Control:
The speed change from synchronous speed initiates the governor control
action resulting in all the participating-generator turbine units taking up the
change in load, and stabilizes the frequency.
  Secondary control:
Secondary control adjusts the load reference set points of selected turbine-
generator units and stabilizes the frequency.
b. Economic Dispatch Control (EDC):
 The economic factor of the power system operation is the cost of generation.
The objective of the economic dispatch control is to meet the demand and the
losses such the cost of the generation is optimal or economical.
 The economic dispatch involves the solution of two different problems
namely the unit commitment and the online dispatch problem.
 The solution of the economic dispatch problem is obtained using the base
load method and best point loading.
c. System Voltage Control:
 System voltage control involves the process of controlling the voltage within
the tolerable limits.
 The voltage control is performed by the static VAR compensators,
synchronous condensers, tap changing transformers, capacitors and reactors.
 The system voltage is controlled during the disturbance in the power system.
d. Security control:
 The security control monitors and controls the power system and also took
the decision over the control parameters of the system.
 In the monitoring and decision of the security control the system parameters
are continuously monitored. If there is any deviation in the system parameter
the control devices are activated by making proper decisions over the
parameters.