forecasting sites and base stations.

For the purpose of Flood Forecasting, hydrological

data is being observed at more than 700 Gauge and Discharge sites, and
hydrometeorological data over 500 rain gauge stations and communicated through a
network of more than 530 wireless stations. Synoptic weather situations, weather
forecast/heavy rainfall warnings etc. are also being collected from FMOs. ( Flood
Management Offices of IMD )

During the flood season 2004 (May to Oct.) 4889 flood forecasts were issued
which included 4184 level forecasts and 705 inflow forecasts. Out of total 4889 forecasts,
4696(96.05%) forecasts were found within accuracy limit of + 15 cms or +20%

3.2.1 Flood Forecasting Performance During 2004:

During the flood season of 2004 (May to October), out of 145 level forecasting
sites, unprecedented flood situations, where the highest flood level attained during the
flood season exceeded their respective previous H.F.L. were witnessed at 10 flood
forecasting sites viz. at Matizuri on the Katkhal, NT Road Crossing on the Pagladyia,
Guwahati on the Brahmaputra, Dharamtul on the Kopilli, Jhanjharpur on the Kamla Balan,
Basua on the Kosi, Ekmighat on the Adhwara Group, Benibad on the Bagmati, Wapi
Town on the Damanganga and Daman on the Damanganga

In 2004, high flood situations i.e. where peak level was attained within 0.5m of
previous HFL, were experienced at 15 forecasting sites i.e. 9 sites on the Brahmaputra
and its tributaries viz Dibrugarh, Neamtighat, Tezpur, Goalpara, Dhubri, Kampur ,
Khowang, Numaligarh and Beki Road Bridge. 3 sites on Barak and its tributaries viz
Annapurnaghat, Kalashahah, Kaimgang. One site Toofanganj on Raidak, one site
Sikandarpur on Buri Gandak and one site Baltara on Kosi.

During the flood season 2004, all the 172 flood forecasting stations including 27
inflows forecasting site were operational from flood forecasting point of view. Out of
these no forecast was issued / required at 69 (40%) sites including 8 inflow flood
forecasting sites. On the whole, 4889 forecasts were issued for the remaining 103 (60%)
flood forecasting sites, which includes 705 inflow forecasts. Out of these 4696 i.e.
96.05% forecasts including 654 (92.77%) inflow forecasts, were found within permissible
limit of accuracy.

Graph showing the year-wise total number of forecasts issued and number of
accurate forecasts is at Fig. 3.1.

3.2.2 Modernisation of Flood Forecasting Services

The Central Water Commission is making a constant endeavor in updating and

modernizing the forecasting services. The forecasting of flood involves a number of
stages, namely, data observation, collection, transmission, compilation and analysis,
formulation of forecasts and their dissemination. To make the flood forecasts more
accurate, effective and timely the modernization activities are being taken up on a
continuous basis.

During IX Plan, telemetry system was installed in Chambal and Upper Mahanadi
basins for real time data collection and transmission to forecast formulation centres.
During X Plan telemetry system is proposed to be installed in Lower Ganga Basin
(Damodar River), Krishna Basin, Godavari basin, Pennar basin, Lower Mahanadi Basin,
Upper Brahmaputra Basin and Yamuna Basin. Tenders has been invited after approval of
the tender document from the Ministry of Water Resources.

22