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CHAPTER 1
MACROECONOMIC SITUATION
The Bangladesh economy has been able to maintain sustained economic growth. The
economy grew at a rate of 7.86 percent in FY2017-18, satisfactorily up from 7.28 percent
growth in FY2016-17. The per capita national income reached US$1,751 in FY2017-18, up
by US$141 a year earlier. Continuing the declining trend since FY2013-14 year-on-year
inflation in FY2017-18 slid down to 5.78 percent. With a growth rate of 14.78 percent
revenue receipt in FY2017-18 also remained at satisfactory level. Exports registered an
increase of 5.81 percent and import increased by 25.23 percent in FY2017-18. Remittances
inflow rebounded by 17.33 percent. Due to deficits in the current account, the surplus in
capital and financial account left the overall balance of the Balance of Payment (BoP)
account in deficits. Despite deficit in BoP foreign exchange reserve still remained steady. At
the end of 30 June 2018 foreign exchange reserve stood at US$32,916 million which is
sufficient for maintaining 6 month import payment. During the period, exchange rate
broadly remained stable. Private sector credit grew at 16.95 percent. The GDP under the
Medium-Term Macroeconomic Framework (MTMF) has been projected to grow at the rate
of 7.8 percent in FY2018-19 which is expected to be achieved through the implementation of
prudent fiscal management, effective application of cautious monetary policy, appropriate
management of expenditure, and sound implementation of the reform activities.
Global Economy and higher oil import bills. Beyond the next
Global growth for 2018-19 is projected to couple of years, as output gaps close and
remain steady at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent, monetary policy settings begin to normalize,
but its pace is less vigorous than projected in growth in most advanced economies is
April and it has become less balanced. expected to decline to potential rates well
Downside risks to global growth have risen below the averages reached before the global
in the past six months and the potential for financial crisis of a decade ago. Medium-
upside surprises has receded. term prospects remain generally strong in
emerging Asia but subpar in some emerging
The downward revision reflects surprises that market and developing economies, especially
suppressed activity in early 2018 in some for per capita growth, including in
major advanced economies, the negative commodity exporters that continue to face
effects of the trade measures implemented or substantial fiscal consolidation needs or are
approved between April and mid-September mired in war and conflict.
as well as a weaker outlook for some key
emerging market and developing economies Among advanced economies, growth
arising from country-specific factors, tighter disappointed in the euro area and the United
financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, Kingdom. Slower export growth after a
strong surge in the final quarter of 2017
Chapter 1-Macroeconomic Situation | 1
Bangladesh Economic Review 2018
contributed notably to the euro area In the euro area and Japan, core inflation
slowdown. Higher energy prices helped remains weak at about 1 percent in the euro
dampen demand in energy importers, while area and 0.3 percent in Japan. In the
some countries were also affected by political emerging market and developing economy
uncertainty or industrial actions. group, core inflation remains contained at
about 2 percent in China, where domestic
Aggregate growth in the emerging market demand has slowed in response to financial
and developing economy group stabilized in regulatory tightening. In India, core inflation
the first half of 2018. Emerging Asia (excluding all food and energy items) has
continued to register strong growth, risen to about 6 percent as a result of a
supported by a domestic demand-led pickup narrowing output gap and pass-through
in the Indian economy from a four-year-low effects from higher energy prices and
pace of expansion in 2017, even as activity in exchange rate depreciation.
China moderated in the second quarter in
Table 1.1: Overview of the World Output
response to regulatory tightening of the Growth Projections
property sector and nonbank financial (Percent Change)
Actual Projection
intermediation. 2016 2017 2018 2019
World Output 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.7
Advanced 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.1
Higher energy prices have lifted headline economies
USA 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.5
year-over-year inflation rates in advanced Euro Area 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.9
and emerging market and developing Japan 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.9
Emerging Market 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.7
economies over the past six months. Core and Developing
Economics
inflation—that is, excluding food and Emerging and 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3
Developing Asia
energy—remains below central banks’ China 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.2
targets in most advanced economies. Among India 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.4
Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2018, IMF.
emerging market and developing economies,
excluding Venezuela’s hyperinflation, core Table 1.2: Overview of World Inflation
Projections
inflation remains below the average of recent (Percent Change)
Actual Projection
years but has inched up in recent months. 2016 2017 2017 2018
Advanced 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.8
Economies
Among advanced economies, core annual USA 1.1 1.9 2.3 2.1
Euro Area 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.6
consumer price inflation in the United States, Japan 0.3 -0.2 0.8 1.5
Emerging Market 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.2
where unemployment hovers around multi- and Developing
decade lows, has exceeded 2 percent since Economics
Emerging and 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.2
March. Core inflation in the United Kingdom Developing Asia
Emerging and 3.2 6.2 8.3 0.9
averaged slightly more than 2 percent in the Developing Europe
first half of 2018, lower than last year, as the Latin America and 5.6 6.0 6.1 5.9
the Caribbean
effects of the large sterling depreciation of Source: World Economic Outlook, October 2018, IMF.
2016–17 on domestic prices have gradually
faded.
Chapter 1-Macroeconomic Situation | 2
Bangladesh Economic Review 2018
On the other hand, investment in FY2017-18 which tax revenue from NBR sources was
increased to 31.23 percent of GDP, up by marked at Tk.2,25,000 crore (10.00% of
0.72 percentage point from the preceding GDP), tax revenue from non-NBR sources at
fiscal year. Of this, the share of private Tk.7,500 crore (0.33% of GDP) and non-tax
investment stood at 23.26 percent of GDP, revenue at Tk.26,953 crore (1.21% of GDP).
slightly higher than the previous year and Against these targets as per the provisional
that of public investment augmented to 7.97 estimates of Integrated Budget and
percent of GDP, moderately higher than the Accounting System (iBAS++), tax revenues
previous fiscal year (7.41% of GDP). received during the concerned year amounted
to Tk.2,01,596 crore, up by 17.45 percent
Inflation
from the previous year. Non-tax revenues
From the beginning of FY2013-14 a reduced by 4.15 percent to Tk.22,326 crore
downward trend has been observed in year- from Tk.22,994 crore during the same period.
on year inflation. Starting from 7.35 percent Attaining 89.35 percent of the revised target,
in FY2013-14 year-on-year inflation declined total revenue receipt in FY2017-18 increased
to 5.44 percent in FY2016-17 but slightly by 14.38 percent to Tk.2,31,829 crore over
increased to 5.78 percent in FY2017-18. the previous year outturn.
Satisfactory domestic production, favorable
During FY2017-18 tax revenue receipts from
domestic environment, low budget deficit
NBR sources amounted to Tk.2,01,596 crore
and prudent monetary policy coupled with
which was 17.29 percent higher than the
low fuel and commodity prices in the
previous year’s receipt. Among the NBR
international markets contributed to such
sources of revenue, taxes on income and
sliding of overall inflation.
profit increased by 15.50 percent, Value
Following downward trend food inflation Added Tax (VAT) 17.77, supplementary
declined from FY2013-14, but in FY2016-17 duties by 20.42 percent and import duties by
and FY2017-18 shifting the direction it 18.10 percent.
upturned to 6.02 percent and 7.13 percent
Similarly, during this period tax revenues
respectively. On the other hand, with an
from Non-NBR sources increased from
upward inclination since FY2013-14, non-
Tk.6,298 crore to Tk.7,042 crore registering a
food inflation shot up but after that it came
growth of 11.81 percent. Revenues received
down to 4.61 percent in FY2016-17 and 3.74
from the sale of non-judicial stamp played a
percent in FY2017-18.
vital role in uplifting non-NBR tax revenues.
Fiscal Sector On the other hand, the most contributory
Revenue Mobilisation sources for the rise in non-tax revenue were
receipts from administrative fees.
In FY2017-18 satisfactory growth has been
achieved in revenue receipts. During this Government Expenditure
period, revised target for revenue receipt was As per the revised budget, the expenditure for
set at Tk.2,59,454 crore (11.53% of GDP), of FY2017-18 has been targeted at Tk.3, 71,495
Chapter 1-Macroeconomic Situation | 4
Bangladesh Economic Review 2018
crore (16.51% of GDP) of which recurrent GDP growth rate at 7.4 percent. At the first
expenditure has been set at Tk.2,23,114 crore half of the fiscal year export growth
(9.91% of GDP) and Annual Development remained moderate, import growth was
Programme (ADP) expenditure has been strong and private sector credit growth
fixed at Tk.1,48,381 crore (6.59% of GDP). remained uptrend, and constraint to
As per the iBAS++ provisional data, the total infrastructure development was also eased to
expenditure in the reporting year rose by some extent. On the whole, strong domestic
19.49 percent to Tk.3,21,107 crore (14.27 demand and investment activities, aided by
percent of GDP) over the previous year strong private sector credit growth and
outturn. The total expenditure under recurrent increased inflows from exports, remittances,
budget (including development capital FDI inflows and medium and long-term
expenditure and development programme) foreign loans contributed GDP to grow
increased by 19.32 percent to Tk.2,21,014 robustly. Broad money (M2) and Reserve
crore in FY2017-18 from Tk.1,85,230 crore Money (RM) were projected at 13.30 and
in FY2016-17. However, according to IMED 12.00 percent subsequently and considering
ADP expenditure increased by 40.91 percent swelling of liabilities from import payments,
to Tk.1,41,492 crore in FY2017-18 from Net Foreign Asset (NFA) was projected at
Tk.1,00,414 crore in FY2016-17. nearly zero percent (0.1%) at the 2nd half of
monetary policy stance. From the latest
Budget Balance and Financing
available data, broad money growth stood at
In the revised budget of FY2017-18, budget 9.24 percent during FY2017-18 which was
deficit has been estimated at Tk.1,07,584 10.88 percent in FY2016-17. Broad money
crore which is 4.78 percent of GDP. Of this growth slowed down due mainly to negative
deficit, Tk.41,567 crore will be financed growth in NFA. It can be noted that NFA
from external sources (including foreign decreased by 0.86 percent during FY2017-
grant) and Tk.66,017 crore will be backed by 18, while it was increased by 14.40 percent in
domestic sources. As per preliminary data of the same period of the previous fiscal year.
iBAS++, the budget deficit stood at 3.96 However, private sector credit experienced a
percent of GDP (excluding grants) in robust growth of 16.95 percent during
FY2017-18, of which 3.68 percent was FY2017-18, above the target level of 16.8
financed from domestic sources and the percent emanated from strong domestic
remaining 0.28 percent from external demand and investment activities. Net
sources. Domestic Assets (NDA) as well as domestic
Monetary and Financial Sector credit also experienced a strong growth in
FY2017-18 due mainly to increase in private
Monetary Policy and Monetary
sector credit growth. NDA grew by 12.84
Management
percent during FY2017-18 compared to 9.68
Monetary Policy stance for FY2017-18 was percent increase in the same period of
formulated with the target of keeping previous fiscal year.
inflation below 6 percent as well as attaining
Chapter 1-Macroeconomic Situation | 5
Bangladesh Economic Review 2018
ensure a stable macroeconomic situation. Online VAT Registration has been made
Some of these are mentioned below: compulsory and software has been
Tax Revenue Mobilisation developed for online VAT submission.
from 6.6 percent in FY2017-18 (revised). expected that through consistent increase in
Channeling necessary funds for the food production, uninterrupted supply of
implementation of the mega projects of the essential commodities, adequate monitoring
Government is likely to increase the outlay of of the market system and ensuring food
ADP. security the government will be able to keep
food inflation under control.
As per the revised budget of FY2017-18 the
overall budget deficit has been anticipated to Considering the growth targets and expected
remain within 5.0 percent of GDP, 60 percent inflation in medium term, MTMF has
(3.0% of GDP) of which will be financed by projected the year-on-year growth of broad
domestic sources and the rest will be backed money within 14-15 percent, while keeping
by external sources. Of the domestic the private sector credit growth around 16.80
financing, one-third (0.9% of GDP) will percent. GDP growth is expected to be
come from the banking sector as credit and achieved if the flow of loan continues as
the rest (2.1% of GDP) will be collected from above.
non-banking sources, particularly from In setting MTMF targets it has been
selling of savings certificates. Gradually predicted that both exports and remittances
dependence on savings certificates for deficit will regain their firm position. Despite the
financing is planned to be reduced. In the falling trend of these two indices in the short
succeeding 3 years budget deficit is expected term, the pace of the economy is not likely to
to stay around 5.0 percent of GDP. In recent be interrupted due to the existence of
years the role of banking sector in financing domestic demand.
budget deficit has been weakened owing to
the high revenue receipt from the sale of The concerted efforts on exploring new
savings certificates due to their high interest labour markets and intensive diplomatic
rate. However, in order to facilitate the initiatives to increase expatriate employment
private investment the government has taken and various initiatives of the government
endeavours to rationalise interest rate which including providing training to create skilled
is likely to make it possible to meet the manpower are expected to contribute to the
budget deficits as per the targets set in upscaling of remittance and exports.
MTMF. In FY2017-18 expenditure on imports was
The government has been pursuing cautious also estimated to increase. Around 70-75
monetary policy stances to maintain percent of imports of Bangladesh are
macroeconomic stability and to keep essential goods (industrial raw materials,
inflation in check. The inflation in FY2017- capital equipment and fuel oil etc.). In
18 is projected to be 5.80 percent. While medium term, import expenditure has been
setting MTMF targets, it has been anticipated projected to increase by 14 percent.
that inflation will slide down to 5.60 percent In medium term, Current Account Balance
and will stay around there over the (CAB) has been projected to be in deficit and
subsequent three fiscal years. Moreover, it is by the end of FY2020-21 it has been
Chapter 1-Macroeconomic Situation | 11
Bangladesh Economic Review 2018
estimated to reach 2.00-2.40 percent of GDP. growth rate and inflation will be realised if
Due to the rises in foreign direct investment the implementation of prudent fiscal
as well as in Medium and Long Term (MLT) management, application of cautious and
credit inflows a surplus in capital and effective monetary policy, appropriate
financial accounts is expected. As a result, management of expenditure, sound
overall balance will be in surplus which will implementation of the reform activities can
maintain the stability of exchange rate and be done properly. Table 1.3 highlights the
keep the foreign exchange reserve at projection of key macroeconomic indicators
satisfactory level. during FY2018-19 to FY2020-21.
The goal of maintaining macroeconomic
stability together with attaining targeted GDP