Workshop 1 - Risk Management - How To Prosper in The New Sugar Market - Original.1550055123

EFS your trusted partner for Price Risk
Management Solutions
Risk Management
How to Prosper in the New Sugar Market
2019
MENU FOR TODAY
• Who am i ?
• What do we do at EFS ?
• Free/quick Risk Assesment
• A new world in Sugar trading
• C.S.I. – help us solve a crime !!!
• Risk Management 101
• Pro Tips on how to mitigate risk
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ECOM Trade LLC, Risk SERVICES
FINANCIAL Management Solutions from ECOM 2
Who am I ?
• Eduardo Gebara
• 55 yesterday
• Brazilian
• Started working in Cosmetics
• Cargill
• Macquarie Bank
• ECOM Financial
• 30 years in Ags / 17 in RM
• My passions are :
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Passions
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Passions
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Passions
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EFS: What do we do ?
The client is at the

core of our focus !
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Quick Risk Assessment
 Its private & confidential
 10 questions
 Max 20 pts
You mark on a piece of paper

0 – NOT TRUE
1- NEUTRAL
2 – TRUE
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Quick Risk Assessment
0 – NOT TRUE / 1- NEUTRAL / 2- TRUE
1. I read more than 5 reports a week
2. The more reports i read the better decisions i make
3. I predominently use Fundamental Analysis when making
pricing decisions
4. I don’t use Technical Analysis. Why bother. Too complicated
5. I don’t look at Price Distrbution studies. What is that ?
6. Do not use V.A.R [Value at Risk Calculations]
7. My pricing portfolio is either Fix price or Unprice
8. My pricing portfolio does not always represent my market
views
9. I use my gut feeling to decide when to price
10. I do not use Options in my pricing portfolio
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Risk degree...
0 – NOT TRUE
1- NEUTRAL
2 – TRUE
0 to 10 – Low - Well done

10 to 20 – Moderate – Stay vigilant
20 to 30 – High – Must be hard to sleep at night
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Why do customers need RM
New world
• The old S&D analysis is simply not enough
Funds/HFT/Algorythmns/Systems
• Powerful and with strong disregard to pure
Fundamentals
• Focus on Technicals and Flows
Information overload
• Too much information is available
• What’s relevant and what’s not
• Innatentional Blindness affects us all !
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Power of the Funds
How much A.U.M. the
TOP 400 have ?
 65,7 Trillion Euros
[63,3 in 2017 up 3.8%]
Who is #1 ?
 BlackRock – 5,3 Trillion Euros
[3,3 in 2017 up 60%]
Forex alone trades almost $2

trillion/day !!!
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Very different....
Black Box Index/Pension

Hedge Funds
Funds Funds
Technical Analysis/Diversification
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Less is more...Brain can’t cope....
Amazing Brain Facts
- More active when you sleep
- 3% of body weight but uses 30% of your blood
- Super fast 1/10.000 of a second to respond
- You do use most of it most of the time
- Can’t multi task
- Should be exercised like your body
- You can see thru your ears
- It lights up when you are in LOVE
- Your brain is smaller than your ancestors as your body also is
- Can store unlimited capacity BUT can process a limited
amount
- Use it or lose it
- Sleep deprivation affects your brains badly
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Information Overload...
A weekday edition of The New

York Times contains more
information than the average
person was likely to come
across in a lifetime in
seventeenth-century England’
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C.S.I. – Who killed Lord Smiles ?
A good man was killed.

Lord Smiles is no longer with us!
3 clues
- It’s in London
- 3 possible suspects
- It’s January
SOLVE THE CRIME !!!
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Innatentional Blindness: Do you suffer from it ?
Who Dunnit
https://youtu.be/ubNF9QNEQLA
Street Changes
https://youtu.be/U1saQoMRD8A
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Risk Management – Back to Basics
Diversification
Don’t put all eggs in one basket
Mitigation
Risk can’t be eliminated
Active Management
Constant Monitoring , Valuation & Portfolio
evolution
What if i am wrong ?
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Why Structure Products ?
Diversification
Customization
Funding
Proactive Portfolio Management
Settlement Options
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Provider or Partner ?
‘MTM’
Valuation Expiry and
Discussion Pricing Execution Reporting and Settlement
Margining
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20
Wise ?
From the errors of others, a wise man
corrects his own.
[Publilius Syrus 85BC]
TOP 5 mistakes we see quite often

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Top mistakes out there
1) Pricing portfolio not aligned with market bias
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2) Moving targets – run from it to then chase after it.
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3) If don’t know it , won’t hurt me
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4) Too much or too little
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Top 5 mistakes out there
5) Confusing Hope with Belief
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Myths about R.M. products...
• It’s too complicated
• I need 1st to learn all about options
• A risk to a trader’s job
• Anyone can provide these things
• If i lose you win
• Its a waste of time
• Risk is part of the job
• It doesn’t work, tried once !
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Take aways
 Divide the fire and you will the sooner put it out
Diversification is KEY
 The opportunity is often lost by deliberating
Inaction is an Action – Be decisive
 There are some remedies worse than the disease
Correct sizing and relevancy
 Anyone can hold the helm when the sea is calm
Prepare for all
 Practice is the best of all instructors
Learn by doing
FOCUS ON RISK NOT ON REWARD
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Remember....
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We are at your service !!!
Welcome to Dubai
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Disclaimer
This presentation is prepared by ECOM Financial Services LLC, a business unit of Ecom
Agroindustrial Corp. Ltd. (“ECOM”). The information in this presentation does not
constitute “investment service”, “investment advice” or “financial products advice” as
defined by laws in any jurisdiction. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the
purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any
transaction. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to
completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. Any comments or
statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of ECOM, its subsidiaries and
affiliates. This transmission may contain information that is privileged, confidential, legally
privileged, and/or exempt from disclosure under applicable law. If you are not the
intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or
use of the information contained herein (including any reliance thereon) is strictly
prohibited.
CSCC

Workshop 1 - Risk Management - How To Prosper in The New Sugar Market - Original.1550055123

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EFS your trusted partner for Price Risk

The client is at the

You mark on a piece of paper

0 to 10 – Low - Well done

Forex alone trades almost $2

Black Box Index/Pension

A weekday edition of The New

A good man was killed.

Proactive Portfolio Management

TOP 5 mistakes we see quite often

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