RRP

£5.95

Sterling review of 2009

& outlook for 2010

0 1 1 7 3 1 1 3 2 5 7 | w w w. h - l . co. u k

IntroductIon
2009 has seen dramatic changes in exchange
rates; interest rates have been cut to historic
lows and new stimulus packages have been
introduced to kick-start a global economic
recovery.
In our review, we look at how these events have
influenced Sterling and identify the winners
and losers in 2009. We also look at the year
ahead to see how Sterling could fare as the
global economy emerges from recession.
To help you navigate through these uncertain
times, we have asked leading financial experts
for their views on what might be in store for
currency markets. e survey includes expert
opinions from: JPMorgan; Lloyds TSB;
Neptune; RBS; Royal London; Schroders;
Standard Life Investments; IG Index;
Henderson and Nomura. Please note that
making predictions in a rapidly changing
economic climate is not an exact science and
these forecasts are opinion only and not advice.
2009 revIew
January - Interest rate cuts & President
Obama’s inauguration
January saw the Bank of England (BoE) cut
interest rates to 1.5% as Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) figures confirmed the UK was in
recession. Euro zone recession provoked the
European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates to
2.0%. e Pound recovered from near parity
against the Euro to reach a month-high of €1.13.
Whilst the UK’s trade deficit widened to a record
£8.33bn, the US trade deficit shrank by 28.7%
(the largest fall in 12 years), as imports were
driven down by weak demand and falling oil
prices - Sterling fell to US$1.35.
President Obama’s inauguration did little to help
financial markets as poor economic and
corporate data caused stock markets to fall and
risk aversion to increase. As a result, Sterling
struggled against the Swiss Franc and Japanese
Yen, but gained against the Australian Dollar,
New Zealand Dollar and South African Rand.
February - Dow Jones falls by 11.6%
and the FTSE 100 by 6%
Fears of a deeper and longer recession caused
markets to fall and risk aversion to increase.
2
Money flowed to the perceived safe havens of
the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.
New Zealand, Canada and Australia cut interest
rates whilst the ECB left rates on hold at 2%.
UK unemployment rose to 6.3%, the BoE cut
interest rates to 1% and the Halifax House Price
Survey surprised all by showing a 1.9% increase.
Sterling benefited, reaching highs of €1.15 and
US$1.49.
President Obama launched a $787bn stimulus
plan, partially in response to huge US job losses
in February, but it failed to have the desired
short-term effect of boosting confidence.
March -Quantitative Easing begins
e Euro gained as recovering stock markets
increased risk appetite for the Euro’s relatively
high interest rate; however, in the wake of poor
GDP figures, the ECB cut rates to 1.5%. e
Australian Dollar benefited from the surprise
decision to keep its interest rates on hold, whilst
Canadian interest rates were cut to 0.5%.
Quantitative Easing explained:
e creation of central bank money normally
used to purchase government and corporate
bonds. e aim is to increase the money supply,
and therefore stimulate the economy by
increasing spending and output. e increase in
supply and potential inflationary pressure can be
negative for a currency in the long-term.
e US Federal Reserve announced a
quantitative easing programme to purchase $300
billion of long-term Treasury debt and up to
$1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities. is
was well received by stock markets, but the
Dollar fell.
e International Monetary Fund (IMF)
commented that the UK economy could lag
behind a global recovery. UK unemployment
broke the two million barrier and the BoE cut
rates to 0.5%. e much debated quantitative
easing programme to buy gilts and corporate
bonds caused Sterling/Euro to reach a month-
low of €1.05.
April – The ECB cuts rates but no QE
e ECB cut interest rates by less than expected
to 1.25%, but didn’t announce quantitative easing
measures. e BoE left interest rates on hold and
continued with its £75 billion QE programme.
Weak economic data (US jobless claims, and
poor US and Euro zone retail sales) were largely
ignored as stocks forged ahead. Risk appetite
caused the US Dollar to slide, allowing Sterling
to break through the $1.50 barrier. Euro zone
inflation remained positive, which benefited the
Euro, whilst deflationary fears weighed on the
Pound; the Retail Price Index (RPI) showed the
first annual drop since 1960.
IMF analysis predicted the global economy
would shrink by up to 1% during the year. In the
Budget, debt was forecast to reach 68% of GDP
and analysts began to talk about the risk of the
UK losing its coveted AAA credit rating.
May - Global optimism continues
e Nationwide Consumer Confidence index
recorded large gains in April. e BoE increased
the capacity for quantitative easing by £50
billion, whilst the ECB cut rates to 1% and
unveiled a plan to purchase €60bn of covered
bonds to boost liquidity, but was quick to confirm
that it was ‘credit easing’ and not QE; the Euro
strengthened to reflect market approval.
Meanwhile, as stock markets continued to rally,
risk appetite favoured the relatively high-yielding
Australian Dollar (3% interest rates). Positive
Australian retail sales and employment data,
coupled with a cautiously optimistic Central
Bank caused Sterling/Australian Dollar to fall
below A$2.00 for the first time since 1996.
e Canadian Dollar strengthened against
Sterling to an intra-month high of C$1.74 as a
result of increasing commodity prices. e US
Federal Reserve’s bank “stress-tests” went as
planned and optimism was further fuelled by
better than expected US employment figures.
June - UK interest rates and QE on hold
ECB President Trichet was cautiously optimistic
that the Euro zone economy could start to
recover in 2010. e BoE minutes noted that
Sterling’s recovery might represent a more
positive view of the UK’s prospects compared
with other major industrialised economies; partly
owing to UK industrial production expanding,
whilst the Euro zone’s weakened.
UK data showed the economy grew in April and
May, pointing towards growth in the second
quarter of 2009. Inflation stood above the BoE’s
target at 2.2%, helping Sterling to strengthen as
easing deflationary fears fuelled interest rate rise
speculation.
Despite favourable US employment data,
pessimism then returned and stock markets fell
on concerns of a protracted recovery. e
Rightmove house price index fell by 0.4% in May
(the first drop since January), and retail sales
dropped 0.6%. Sterling, whilst stronger than
earlier in the year, seemed to lack direction.
July - Recovery balanced on a
knife-edge
Speculation of QE expansion increased as UK
inflation dropped below the 2% target (the first
time since Sept 2007) and second quarter UK
GDP showed the worst figures since records
began in 1955.
Conversely, second quarter US GDP showed a
better than expected annualised contraction of
1%. Rising house prices and a surge in home
sales, suggested a stabilising US housing sector.
Good US corporate earnings pushed the Dow
Jones up 8% in July, but served as a hindrance to
the Dollar, as risk appetite moved money away
from the perceived Dollar ‘safe–haven’ to
currencies with a better return (higher interest
rate).
e ECB rate remained at 1%, but falling
inflation pointed towards the need for sustained
stimulus measures. e IMF estimated the Euro
could be overvalued by up to 15% against a
basket of currencies. Commodity-related
currencies, including the Australian, New
Zealand and Canadian Dollars were amongst the
best-performing as global recovery hopes
boosted commodity prices.
August - Sterling declines against every
major currency
e BoE’s pessimistic outlook and an unexpected
£50 billion QE expansion, kept Sterling under
pressure. e US Federal Reserve and ECB
made no changes to interest rates or stimulus
measures. e ECB was upbeat, citing a slowing
Euro zone recession, whilst the Federal Reserve
expected to keep interest rates low for a
prolonged period.
UK data included the biggest fall in business
investment for 24 years and a further rise in
Government borrowing during July. Stock
markets continued to rise and positive US and
Euro data overpowered the mixed news coming
from the now lagging UK economy.
US jobless figures recorded the smallest drop
since August 2008, German and French
economies were now showing growth and
European investor sentiment rose to a one-year
high. Meanwhile, UK consumer confidence
remained flat for a third consecutive month.
September – Sterling weakens against
higher-yielding currencies
Comments from the Bank of Canada, US
Federal Reserve and ECB, indicated that their
interest rates would be unlikely to change before
mid-2010. e BoE did not expand QE, but
commented that a sustained recovery remained
uncertain and that further QE expansion might
be needed.
e Australian Dollar hit decade-plus highs
against Sterling as its economy, having avoided
recession, grew by 0.6% in the three months to
June. Higher commodity prices and interest rates
helped the South African Rand to register its
highest level against the Pound in over three
years.
Growth in Euro zone service sector activity and
factory output, plus positive inflation data pushed
the Euro further ahead against Sterling. e
UK’s annual consumer inflation rate dropped to
1.6%, but this was higher than anticipated and
initially supported Sterling. Any gains were
short-lived following worsening unemployment
figures. e G20 meeting offered little direction,
but cited job creation as a key requisite for
unwinding stimulus packages.
October – the US economy exits
recession
Lower than expected UK inflation and failure to
escape recession raised concerns that the BoE
would expand QE in November. Positive news
came from increases in UK mortgage approvals,
and house prices (according to Nationwide), and
an unchanged unemployment rate.
Euro zone manufacturing activity and service
sector activity improved, whilst German business
confidence rose to a 13-month high. However, a
fall in consumer prices, employment and a
slowdown in money supply growth, raised fears
of sustained low interest rates. e US economy
exited recession, but with mixed economic data
the Federal Reserve remained wary of how the
economy would perform if Government stimulus
were to be withdrawn. e Dollar weakened
following a lift in risk appetite.
A fall in the annual rate of inflation helped the
Bank of Canada to maintain its commitment to
keeping interest rates on hold until mid-2010.
e New Zealand and Australian Dollars
(commodity currencies) were boosted by robust
Chinese economic growth data (a major trading
partner). New Zealand looked set to hold interest
rates whilst Australia became the first G20
nation to increase interest rates (from 3.0% to
3.25%) in 2009.
November – UK Government credit-
rating fears return
e BoE expanded QE to £200 billion. UK out-
put fell suggesting that any UK recovery in the
final quarter of 2009 could continue to lag global
counterparts. e public sector deficit hit a record
for October as Government spending exceeded
receipts by a greater than expected £11.4 billion.
Fitch credit rating agency said that the UK was
the most at risk amongst the major economies of
losing its top AAA credit rating. Governor King
commented that Sterling's decline would be
helpful in boosting exports, and this seemed to
leave the door open for more QE.
e US Federal Reserve indicated interest rates
would be low for an extended period, and com-
ments from the Russian Central Bank that it
would diversify its currency reserves hurt the
Dollar further. Market instability was also
reignited by Dubai's request to delay its debt re-
payments.
e Euro zone joined the camp of major
economies to move out of recession. e latest
South African GDP figures revealed it too had
exited recession and Australian interest rates in-
creased to 3.5%.
December – Interest rates remain at
rock bottom
e Central Banks of the UK, US and Euro zone
left interest rates at record lows. is marked no
change to interest rates in the US for the whole
of 2009, and no move in UK and Euro zone in-
terest rates since March and May respectively.
However, the US Federal Reserve and ECB both
cited improving economic and financial market
conditions as being sufficient to withdraw some
stimulus measures put in place to support their
economies.
Sovereign credit-rating fears remained in sharp
focus, with Spain’s credit outlook cut to negative
from stable and a downgrade for Greece on ac-
count of deteriorating public finances.
Global stock markets generally continued to per-
form strongly, whilst gold prices retreated from
record highs of over US$1,200 per ounce. Aus-
tralian interest rates rose by 0.25% for a third-
successive month, to 3.75%. Buoyed by investors’
increased risk appetite, the Australian Dollar,
New Zealand Dollar, and South African Rand
all avoided significant losses against Sterling.
3
2009 exchange rate charts
S
Sterling/Euro (GBP/EUR) Sterling/US Dollar (GBP/USD)
1.20 1.75
1.18 1.70
1.16 1.65
1.14
1.60
1.12
1.55
1.10
1.08 1.50
1.06 1.45
1.04 trend line 1.40
1.02 exchange rate 1.35
1.00 1.30

17
17

17

17

17

17
17
/1
/1

17

17

17
/3

/6

/9

/1
/1
2
2

/3

/6

/9
/

/0

/0

/0
/0

09

2/
2

/0

/0
9

/0
9
8

09

0
9

9
8
S
Sterling/Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Sterling/Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD)
1.95 2.40

1.90 2.30

1.85 2.20

1.80 2.10

1.75 2.00

1.70 1.90

1.65 1.80

1.60 1.70

17
17

17
17

17

17

17
17

17

17

/1
/1
/1
/1

/3

/6

/9
/3

/6

/9

2/
2
2/
2

/0

/0
/

/0

/0

/0
/0

09
09

0
0

9
9

9
8
9
8

Sterling/New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) S

Sterling/Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF)

2.90
1.85
2.80
1.80
2.70
2.60 1.75
2.50 1.70
2.40
1.65
2.30
1.60
2.20
2.10 1.55
2.00 1.50
17
17

17

17

17

17
17

17

17

17
/1
/1

/3

/6

/9

/1
/1

/3

/6

/9
2/
2

/0

/0

2/
2
/0

09

/0

/0
0

/0

09
9

09
9
8

9
8

S
Sterling/Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY)

165.00 CENTRAL BANK INTEREST RATES

160.00
countrY % lASt chAnGe
155.00
uK 0.50 5th March 09
150.00
145.00
euro zone 1.00 7th May 09
140.00 uS 0-0.25 16th december 08
135.00 canada 0.25 21st April 09
130.00 Switzerland 0.25 12th March 09
125.00
Australia 3.75 1st december 09
120.00
new Zealand 2.50 29th April 09
17
17

17

17

17

/1
/1

Japan 0.10 19th december 08

/3

/6

/9

2
2

/0

/0

/0
/0

09

9
8

Data correct as of 31/12/09

4
2010 outlook
Last year’s survey saw our respondents correctly predict further interest
rate cuts and the introduction of quantitative easing to boost the economy.
e majority thought that the UK recovery would lag behind the US and
Euro zone, with the UK recession lasting up to the end of 2009. It was
estimated that UK interest rates wouldn’t rise until the second half of 2010.
e exchange rate forecasts made in December 2008 were made at a
unique time in financial markets. Whilst predictions were close on
currencies with low interest rates, the recovery in higher yielding currencies
such as the Australian Dollar has surprised many.
We preface this year’s report by again saying that exchange rates are
notoriously difficult to forecast given the numerous factors which
influence them. Our aim is not to advise you, but help keep you abreast
of the latest opinions in the foreign exchange market by asking ten leading
market professionals for their outlook.
a thriving economy will typically attract more investment and capital
inflows, and export more goods. To invest, or to purchase a country’s goods
and services, investors and consumers will need to purchase that country’s
currency, causing the currency to appreciate. With many countries having
exited recession in the third quarter of 2009, the focus is now on the
comparative rate and sustainability of that recovery.
UK economic growth forecast for 2010
<0%
0% - 1%
1.1% - 2.5%
2.6% - 4%

In 2010 the debate will focus on the impact of actions taken by Central
Banks and Governments, coupled with the sustainability of economic
recovery. For Sterling’s sake, a General Election will determine who holds Euro zone economic growth forecast for 2010
the reins to the UK’s recovery, but reducing debt needs to be high on the
campaign agenda to keep the UK’s credit-rating strong. Global risk
appetite will again be a critical factor influencing exchange rates, and the <0%
potential for raising interest rates could also become a decisive factor. 0% - 1%
1.1% - 2.5%
Outlook for next interest rate rise 2.6% - 4%

60%
UK
Euro zone
50% US economic growth forecast for 2010
US
% of respondents

40% <0%
0% - 1%
30%
1.1% - 2.5%
20% 2.6% - 4%

10%

e majority of respondents point to the US leading the way with growth

0%
of 2.6% - 4% in 2010, with a consensus anticipating a more tepid recovery
010 2 2010 3 2010 4 2010 1 2011 2 2011 3 2011 4 2011 er 2011
Q1 2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Aft of 1.1%-2.5% for both the UK and Euro zone. A minority expect the UK
and Euro zone to register less than 1% annual growth. e consensus
forecasts are more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund’s
Our survey respondents cite the second half of 2010 as a key time for World Economic Outlook (October 2009) projections that the US
increasing interest rates. Interest rate rises, and the potential for further rate economy will grow by 1.5% in 2010, compared to 0.9% in the UK and
hikes, should make a currency more attractive to investors and strengthen 0.3% in the Euro zone.
its comparative value. e interest rate outlook favours the US Dollar in
terms of speed of rate rises, with an average prediction of rates being
around 1.75% by the end of 2010. UK interest rates are on average
expected to be in the 1.25% to 1.5% range by the end of 2010, with the
Euro zone matching the US at 1.75%. However, these averages come
from a diverse range of opinion, suggesting uncertainty in the continued
recovery of these regions.

A currency’s value will also be determined by the health of its economy;

5
 e global recession has been fought with coordinated Government
spending, aggressively lowered interest rates as well as more
unconventional monetary policies. Our survey asked respondents to rate
how the UK, European, and US Central Banks had implemented policy
during the past twelve months, and whether these economies are now
well-positioned to achieve sustainable growth over the next five years.
Central Bank/growth sustainability rating
5.00
Central Bank approval
Growth sustainability
Rating (1 = poor, 5 = good)
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
UK zo ne US
Euro
In last year’s survey the ECB were seen as too slow in cutting interest
rates; a view furthered this year with the ECB ranked less favourably than
the UK and US Central Banks for its policy in 2009. However, our
respondents view the US and Euro zone economies equally placed ahead
of the UK for sustained growth.
We also asked our experts for their exchange rate forecasts (Page 7)
and what they thought were the most important factors that would
influence exchange rate movements in the year ahead:
Outlook for Sterling/Euro:
Forecasts ranged from €0.90 to €1.30. 50% predicted €1.10 to €1.20,
30% forecast a rise above €1.20, but 20% cautioned a fall to below
€1.10 is possible.
Key factors which could favour Sterling over the Euro:
Is Sterling undervalued? David Jones, Chief Strategist at IG Index,
cites “ongoing feeling in markets that negative sentiment towards
Sterling has been overdone”. is is echoed by Ned Rumpeltin, FX
Strategist at Nomura, that Sterling “bearishness is at an extreme” whilst
“the UK economy should begin to grow more quickly next year”.
Ian Kernohan, Economist at Royal London, cites “interest rate
differentials”. UK interest rates are 0.5% lower than the Euro zone’s
1%; Sterling should benefit if UK interest rates rise relative to the Euro
zone. Higher UK interest rate expectations could be supported by
improving UK recovery expectations relative to the Euro zone, as well
as increasing UK inflation expectations (higher interest rates can be
used to curb excessive inflationary pressures).
Neil Parker at RBS highlights “concerns over Euroland’s banking
system”, with “more fiscal, banking and credit woes in Europe” also
anticipated by Standard Life’s Currency Director, Ken Dickson.
Parker also suggests plans to “quell the UK’s excessive budget deficits”
could ease fears over high UK debt levels.
6
Key factors which could favour the Euro over Sterling:
Conversely some experts thought that UK interest rates could remain
lower for longer compared with the Euro zone. Clive Dennis,
Currency Fund Manager at Schroders, highlights “very loose”
monetary policy and quantitative easing as negatives for Sterling.
Dennis also cites “political risk” in the UK – and as pointed out by
Jonathon Griggs, Head of FX Strategy at JP Morgan, the outcome of
the UK General Election could be “absolutely critical”. Expected
reforms to tackle the UK’s deteriorating public finances could be
hindered if neither major political party secures a clear election victory,
potentially unnerving international investors.
Outlook for Sterling/US Dollar:
Half of those surveyed predicted that Sterling would end 2010 lower than
$1.60, but only 10% predict a fall to below the $1.50 level. 20% predict
Sterling to make headway above $1.70, with 10% forecasting a return
above $1.80.
Key factors which could favour Sterling over the US Dollar:
As highlighted in our survey last year, doubts surrounding the long-
term position of the Dollar as the world’s global reserve currency might
persist. David Jones cites a risk of further shifts away from the US
Dollar by global Central Banks. Jonathon Griggs also emphasises in
particular the “decisions taken by Chinese authorities on Chinese Yuan
exchange rate policy” as a key factor to be monitored.
Griggs also notes the “evolution of US inflation expectations” as an
important factor. If inflation remains more subdued than expected, the
US Federal Reserve might see little reason to raise interest rates. e
US Federal Reserve continues to caution that interest rates will likely
remain exceptionally low for an ‘extended period’, and not all of our
respondents are convinced that US interest rates will rise at all over
the next twelve months.
Key factors which could favour the US Dollar over Sterling:
Optimism over the global economic outlook and risk appetite trends
– highlighted as a key factor still by several experts, including Neptune
Investment Management’s Chief Economist James Dowey. A relapse
in investors’ appetite for risk could favour the US Dollar, often viewed
as a safe-haven in periods of economic vulnerability.
Higher US interest rates – the survey showed that the US Dollar could
benefit if expectations grow that US interest rates will rise faster than in
the UK. For instance, the interest rate outlook will favour the US Dollar
as the “US recovery gathers momentum” according to Neil Parker.
Further favourable trends in US employment data could also boost US
interest rate expectations. Kenneth Broux, Market Economist at Lloyds
Banking Group, highlights “US unemployment trends” and interest
rate “hike expectations” as key factors supporting the US Dollar in 2010.
Summary
e outlook for Sterling remains bleak: the combination of growing
Government debt, low interest rates and potential need for further
quantitative easing in a General Election year will make money markets
nervous about buying or holding Sterling. Globally we expect uncertainty
to continue as Central Banks and Governments attempt to protect fragile
green shoots of recovery from a winter frost. Please see page 8 for an
economic calendar for the first quarter of 2010.
Predictions for Sterling against major currencies, end 2010

Sterling/Euro (GBP/EUR) forecast Sterling/US Dollar (GBP/USD) forecast

50% 40%

40%
30%
% of respondents

% of respondents
30%
20%
20%

10%
10%

0% 0%
<0.90 0.90 - 1
.00
1.00 - 1
.10
1.10 - 1
.20
1.20 - 1
.30 >1.30 <1.40 1.40 - 1
.50
1.50 - 1
.60
1.60 - 1
.70
1.70 - 1
.80 >1.80

exchange rates exchange rates

Sterling/Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) forecast Sterling/Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) forecast

80%
40%

60%
30%
% of respondents

% of respondents

20% 40%

10% 20%

0% 0%
<0.50 1.50 - 1
.65
1.65 - 1
.80
1.80 - 1
.95
1.95 - 2
.10 >2.10 <1.40 1.40 - 1
.60
1.60 - 1
.80
1.80 - 2
.00
2.00 - 2
.20 >2.20

exchange rates exchange rates

Sterling/New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) forecast Sterling/Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) forecast

60%
40%

60%
% of respondents

% of respondents

30%

40% 20%

20% 10%

0% 0%
<1.75 1.75 - 2
.00
2.00 - 2
.25
2.25 - 2
.50
2.50 - 2
.75 >2.75 <1.50 1.50 - 1
.60
1.60 - 1
.70
1.70 - 1
.80
1.80 - 1
.90 >1.90

exchange rates exchange rates

Sterling/Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY) forecast

100%

80%
% of respondents

60% we hope that you have found these opinions insightful, and above
all useful. Please remember that predictions can only be based on
40% information currently available.
20%
If you have a foreign exchange requirement in 2010, we’re here to
help. details of the hl currency Service can be found page 8, but
0%
please contact our currency specialists on 0117 311 3257 if you
<100 100 - 12
5
125 - 15
0
150 - 17
5
175 - 20
0 >200
have any questions.
exchange rates

7
the hargreaves lansdown currency Service
The Hargreaves Lansdown Currency Service is designed
for those who have a need to buy or sell a currency. Our
aim is to provide market-leading exchange rates which
could save you hundreds if not thousands of Pounds
compared to the high-street banks.
n Regular Currency Transfer Plan
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A summary of the benefits

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Simple solutions to reduce risk For more information

when making a payment overseas, you will typically need to buy
a foreign currency. exchange rates move constantly and your
transaction could cost more in Sterling than you had initially
planned for. hargreaves lansdown can offer a range of simple
transaction types which enable you to fix the exchange rate and
fix the cost. the options include:
n Forwards & flexible forwards
A Forward gives you the ability to fix the cost in Sterling now
for a payment that needs to be made on a set date in the
future (up to two years ahead). this eliminates the risk of the
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in a flexible date range and even elect to draw down smaller
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Please call our currency specialists now on 0117 311 3257 for
more information. Alternatively, you can email us at
currency@hargreaveslansdown.co.uk or visit www.H-L.co.uk
Important Investment notes
the contents of this report should only be used for reference and
does not constitute advice to buy or sell any of the currencies
mentioned. the transfer and custody of client monies by
hargreaves lansdown (hl) are covered by the transitional
provisions of the Financial Services Authority (FSA) as hl is an
authorised Payment Institution. the marketing and service of the
currency Service are not regulated by the FSA.

data releases calendar

January February March
1st Bank holiday AUD interest rate decision CAD GDP figures, AUD RBA rate statement
2nd US pending home sales CAD interest rate statement, AUD GDP
3rd NZD unemployment rate GHF GDP
4th UK retail sales UK & ECB interest rates, AUD RBA statement UK & ECB interest rate decisions
5th US Non-farm payrolls US Non-farm payrolls
6th US FOMC minutes
7th US Non-farm payrolls
8th CAD unemployment rate German industrial production
9th UK manufacturing production UK manufacturing production
10th BOE inflation report NZD interest rate decision
11th US unemployment claims US unemployment claims
12th UK manufacturing production German GDP preliminary US retail sales
13th AUD unemployment rate
14th ECB & BoE interest rate decisions
15th US CPI (inflation) AUD MPC meeting minutes AUD MPC minutes, BoJ meeting
16th UK CPI (inflation) figures, BoJ meeting US interest rates & UK CPI
17th UK MPC & US FOMC minutes UK MPC meeting minutes
18th CHF retail sales US unemployment claims US unemployment claims
19th UK CPI (inflation) UK retail sales UK retail sales index
20th BoE meeting minutes
21st US unemployment claims
22nd UK GDP (Gross Domestic Product) CAD core retail sales CAD core retail sales figures
23rd German IFO & NZD inflation figures German IFO business climate
24th US new home sales, ZAR CPI figures NZD GDP, US new home sales, ZAR CPI
25th BoJ monetary policy meeting US core durable goods orders US unemployment claims
26th German IFO business climate UK & US GDP figures
27th US FOMC, ZAR CPI
28th US unemployment claims
29th CAD GDP UK final GDP figures
30th G8 Conference
31st CAD GDP

hargreaves lansdown is not responsible for errors or omissions on this calendar.