CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd

March 28, 2018

Mayur Uniquoters Ltd.

Company Brief
No. of shares (m) 45.3
Mayur is one of the largest synthetic leather manufacturers in India having an
Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 2156/332.8
installed capacity of 3.05 million linear meters per month.
Current price (Rs/$) 476/7.3
Price target (Rs/$) 561/8.7
Quarterly Highlights
52 W H/L (Rs.) 570/311
• Mayur witnessed recovery in its business catapulted by growth in domestic
sales volume of 32.8% while export sales registered volume growth of 9.7%
Book Value (Rs/$) 94.8 /1.5
in Q3FY18. Revenues jumped to Rs 137.99 crs ($21.3m) in Q3FY18 from Rs
Beta 0.8
108.81 crs ($16.1m) in the previous year (severely marred by
Daily volume (avg. monthly) 40830 demonetization and the resulting slowdown in the economy) registering a
P/BV (FY18e/19e) 4.6/3.7 growth of 26.8% y-o-y.y. On the domestic front, recovery in sales volumes
P/E (FY18e/19e) 23.3/18.7 from footwear segment and automotive OEMs has been remarkable.
EPS growth (FY17/18e/19e) -3.5/19.5/24.7 Management
gement expects the domestic sales from footwear (accounts for nearly
ROE (FY17/18e/19e) 21.5/21.6/21.9 45% of its revenues) to expand further with the onset of summer.
OPM(FY17/18e/19e) 26.9/26.2/27.4 • Raw material to sales has been demonstrating an uptrend since the last four
Net D/E ratio (FY17/18e/19e) -0.3/-0.5/-0.3 quarters on the backdrop of rising crude oil prices (accounts for about 80% of
BSE Code 522249 its raw material cost, though not directly). However, if such trend continues,
NSE Code MAYURUNIQ
the company will undertake
take a consequent price hike (previously, increase of
3% was undertaken in April, 2017). Besides, appreciation of rupee in Q3 by
Bloomberg MUNI IN
3% also aided suppression of EBITDA margins.
margins
Reuters MAYU.BO
• The company enjoys current production capacity of 3.05 million meters per
Shareholding pattern % month with total capacity utilization of 85%.. In order to capture the expected
growth in sales and thereby foster its business growth, the company has
Promoters 61.3
ordered a 7th PVC line that will increasee its production capacity by 5 lakh
MFs / Banks / FIs 6.1 meters per month.
Foreign Portfolio Investors 13.8
Govt. holding -
• The stock currently trades at 23.3x FY18e EPS of Rs 20.46 and 18.7x FY19e EPS
of Rs 25.50.. Commencement of the production for polyurethane (PU)
Public & others 18.9
synthetic leather in Madhya Pradesh and PVC leather in Mysore plant will
Total 100.0
undoubtedly expand the company’s ambit of business. Additionally, its entry
As on March 09, 2018
into the European markets
rkets via Mercedes Benz and BMW will nurture its
export revenues. Margins would enlarge on account of value addition and
Recommendation expanding horizon of its business. Yet, massive reliance on imported raw
materials could strain margins and profits. Strong resurrection in business in
Accumulate Q2 and Q3 prompted revision in FY19e EPS by 14.9%.14.9% Therefore, we assign
Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0011 ‘accumulate’ rating on the stock with revised target of Rs 561 (previous
E- mail: research@cdequi.com target: Rs 444) based on 22x FY19e EPS (peg ratio: 1) 1 over a period of 9-12
months.

Figures (Rs crs) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e

Income from operations 506.32 511.02 484.76 563.05 662.14
Other Income 5.94 5.79 7.37 10.25 12.07
EBIDTA (other income included) 107.71 141.18 137.58 158.00 193.61
PAT (after EO items) 65.70 82.07 78.79 93.49 115.58
EPS (Rs.) 15.17 17.73 17.12 20.46 25.50
EPS growth (%) 14.4 16.9 -3.5 19.5 24.7

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Outlook & Recommendation

Synthetic Leather Industry
Future Market Insights, provider of market intelligence and consulting services, envisages the global synthetic leather market to
reach a valuation of $56.3 bn in 2027 from $36.2 bbn in 2016 growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2017 to 2027. Synthetic leather finds
its application in various segments - furnishing, footwear
footwear, automotive, bags and wallets,, clothing, and sports – where footwear is
the leading segment in terms of its revenue share and growth rate and is predicted to retain its dominance throughout the
assessment period. Advances in manufacturing processes and innovation along with increasing affordability of luxury products
in
n emerging markets are expected to stroke the demand of synthetic leather globally.
The market forecastss and trends highlight that Polyurethane (PU) synthetic leather will experience the highest growth in the
next decade. The polyurethane artificial leather market in India was recorded at 931.2 million square meters in 2016
2 and is
estimated to headway at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2017 to 2025 – is expected to touch $8.14 bn by the terminal
ter year - according to
Grand View Research, augmented by demand in the automotive and footwear industries.
Increasing penetration of PU synthetic leather materials in tthe automotive sector, particularly in car seats, is expected to be a
driver for market growth. The footwear industry has been a key end user of polyurethane ar artificial
tificial leather market considering
its usage in men and women’s footwear, including boots, sneakers, and sandals. As a result of ease in designing and
processing, PU has been replacing ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) in footwear segment.
Leather industry has been identified as a focus sector in India. It is among the top ten forex earners of the country. Under the
‘Make in India’ programme, leather sector is a thrust segment whereby synthetic leather accounts for 90% of total leatherlea
[

manufacturing in the country. As a part of ‘Make in India’ initiative,, the Indian leather industry is expected to make great
strides in boosting production.. The growing concern over killing of animals is reducing the demand for pure leather and is
working in favor the synthetic leather market.

Outlook of Auto Sector

S&P Global foresees the global auto sales to grow by about 2%2%-3% in 2018 and 1%-2%2% in 2019, consistent with their projections of
GDP growth hovering at around 2% in Europe and the US, 55.5% in the Asia-Pacific Pacific region, and in the 2%-3%
2% range in Latin
America. Global light vehicle sales are expected to trend toward 96 million units in 2018 and 98 million units in 2019. Business
Wire, global leader in press release distribution, reckons that the global automotive interior leather market will grow at a CAGR
of 7.8% over period of 2017-2023.
Society of Indian Automobile Manufactures (SIAM) anticipates considerable improvement in the Indian automotive industry
performance in FY19. Revival of the economy post demonetization and GST is expected to foster the auto industry and
manufacturing activities albeit issues related to monsoons in FY19 may impair rural auto consumption. Nevertheless, low cost of
production continues to attract various promine
prominentnt auto companies to capture a dominant share in Indian automobile industry.
industry
India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) Ra) has maintained a stable outlook for the auto ancillary sector for FY19, based on the
expectation of healthy growth in original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) volumes and continued replacement demand. ICRA,
a credit rating service provider, projects the growth in the auto components industry to be relatively higher than the underlying
growth in the automotive industry in medium to long term.
According to IBEF, by 2020, India is expected to become the fourth largest automobiles producer globally after China, US and
Japan while the auto components industry is expected to become the third largest in the world by 2025. This will substantially
boost the revenues from automobile segment for Mayur.

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Outlook of Footwear Sector

India is the second-largest
largest manufacturer of footwear in the world, accounting for approximately 9.0% of the annual global
production. Increasing investments by foreign players in the footwear industry are anticipated to further drive penetration of o
polyurethane fauxux leather market in future. The Indian footwear industry has also received immense support from the
government, recognizing it as a priority sector and has introduced beneficial policy reforms that are likely to work in its favor.
A recent report by Global
al Industry Analysts, Inc. posits the global market for footwear to reach $430 bn by 2024 invigorated by new
design trends and mount in discretionary spending among the ever rising middle class population. Asia Pacific is acknowledged as
the fastest growing
g market, growing at a CAGR of 8% in volume terms, over the period 20162016-2024.

Source: Global Industry Analysts, Inc.

Financials and Valuations

Mayur reported 16.3% growth in its revenues in 9MFY18 galvanized by the recovery of economy, essentially the footwearf and
automotive sectors. The footwear industry in India was fatally afflicted amidst the cash crunch and tax reform, albeit these events
have been characterized by shift from the unorganized sector (accounting for over 70% of market share) to the organized
or side,
which is propitious for Mayur since 95% of its business in the footwear segment is with the organized players. However, going
forward, revival in the domestic economy along with addition of PU plant and expansion of Mayur’s export market wouldwoul lead to
17.6% growth in sales for FY19.

Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur Sources: CD Equisearc

Equisearch, Mayur Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur

India presently imports a bulk of its PU leather demand

demand. The foray into PU leather would enable Mayur to cater to the segment of
the domestic market which currently relies on imports. The company is therefore, in the process of setting up a PU leather plant at
Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh with a production capacity of 0.7 mn llinear meters per month. Demand for PU leather is also expected to
increase in India with the entry of many international brands that use the material in products such as footwear, garments, ladies
l
purses and bags.

Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur Sources:: CD Equisearch, Mayur

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To expand their footprint in southern India, the company is in setting up a PVC leather plant with a capacity of 0.10 mn linear
line
meters at Mysore, Karnataka. This plant will help Mayur to leverage the existing opportunities in the industry
i with the additional
capacity to propel higher future growth as well as establish proximity to its customers in the southern market. The company
wishes to shift one existing line to the Mysore plant after which, the company will have capacity to install four more lines
li as
production ramps up in the long run.
The company intends to undertake its capacity addition activities in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh mainly through internal
accruals. The company has already acquired the requisite land for the PU project and embar
embarkedked on its civil activity in November
last year. They have also identified the prospective supply of plant and machinery for PU, the negotiations for which will be
settled by the end of current fiscal. Mayur has not undertaken significant capital expenditu
expenditure
re in the current fiscal and is expected
to incur a capex of ~ Rs 135 crs ($20.8m) in FY19 – Rs 100 crs ($15.4m) for the PU plant and Rs 35 crs ($5.4m) for PVC. The
company is also undertaking measures to make its furnishing segment more competitive. It ha has, therefore, set up stores
s in Delhi,
Surat, Chennai, Indore and Kanpur to establish a distribution chain and build its brand through the furnishing route.

Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur Source

Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur

The stock currently trades at 23.3x FY18e EPS of Rs 20.46 and 18.7x FY19e EPS of Rs 25.50. With a current capacity utilization of
85%, significant
ignificant increase in capacity utilization is anticipated on the backdrop of revival of demand in domestic
do economy,
increasing population and rising disposable income and its potential admittance into the European markets. The company is
confident of getting approvals for orders by Mercedes Benz in FY19 and has been modifying its process to grab such approvals.
app
This would doubtlessly accentuate greater exposure to other prospective customers in the European market. However, product
obsolesce as a result of continuous technological innovation and government regulations pertaining to the harmful environmental
environment
effects of processing PVC may serve as major restraints for the market. In view of vigorous recovery of sales in Q2 and Q3, we
revise our FY19e EPS by 14.9% and assign ‘accumulate’ rating on the stock with a revised target of Rs 561 (previous target: Rs 444)
based on 22x FY19e EPS (peg ratio: 1) over a period of 99-12 months. For more information, refer to our June report.

Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur Sources:: CD Equisearch, Mayur Sources: CD Equisearch, Mayur

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Risks and Concerns

Raw material risk
The company heavily relies on crude oil for its raw materials (~80%).. Rising crude oil prices have already been affecting the
company’s margins (OPMs down 131 bps in 9MFY18) and any further rise in oil prices would lead to cost escalations that could
potentially roil margins.
Dependency on footwear and automotive industry
The company derives 70% of its revenues from the footwear and automobile industry having a dominant presence in B2B
segment. Any disruption in the footwear and automobile industry could sever
severely
ely impair the company’s topline.

Competition
China gives a tough competition to Indian leather manufacturers in terms of pricing in the global market.
market The company may
therefore, have to undertake cut in its prices offered in order to remain competitive in the industry.

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Financials
Quarterly results- standalone Figures in crores
Q3FY18 Q3FY17 % chg 9MFY18 9MFY17 % chg
Income From Operations (Net) 137.99 108.81 26.8 416.68 358.40 16.3
Other Income 1.56 1.14 36.7 8.22 7.54 9.1
Total Income 139.55 109.95 26.9 424.90 365.93 16.1
Total Expenditure 101.93 78.34 30.1 305.74 258.30 18.4
EBITDA (other income included) 37.61 31.61 19.0 119.16 107.63 10.7
Interest 0.45 0.38 19.9 1.09 0.91 19.8
Depreciation 4.33 4.23 2.6 12.76 12.59 1.4
PBT 32.82 27.00 21.6 105.31 94.14 11.9
Tax 11.07 8.98 23.2 35.36 30.31 16.7
PAT 21.75 18.02 20.7 69.94 63.82 9.6
Extraordinary Item - - - - - -
Adjusted Net Profit 21.75 18.02 20.7 69.94 63.82 9.6
EPS(Rs) 4.75 3.94 20.7 15.28 13.59 12.4

Income Statement- standalone Figure in crores

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Income From Operations (Net) 506.32 511.02 484.76 563.05 662.14
Growth (%) 7.8 0.9 -5.1 16.2 17.6
Other Income 5.94 5.79 7.37 10.25 12.07
Total Income 512.26 516.81 492.13 573.30 674.21
Total Expenditure 404.55 375.63 354.54 415.30 480.60
EBITDA (other income included) 107.71 141.18 137.58 158.00 193.61
Interest 2.60 3.40 2.38 1.69 1.13
Depreciation 11.86 16.12 16.69 17.29 22.51
PBT 93.25 121.66 118.51 139.02 169.98
Tax 27.35 39.15 37.83 45.53 54.39
PAT 65.90 82.51 80.68 93.49 115.58
Extraordinary Item 0.20 0.44 1.89 0.00 0.00
Adjusted Net Profit 65.70 82.07 78.79 93.49 115.58
EPS (Rs)* 15.17 17.73 17.12 20.46 25.50

*EPS on weighted average equity

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Standalone Balance Sheet Figure in crores

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Sources of Funds
Share Capital 81.09 23.14 22.89 22.66 22.66
Reserves 201.58 318.97 370.75 452.35 560.28
Total Shareholders' Funds 282.67 342.11 393.64 475.01 582.95

Long Term Debt 13.75 9.05 3.93 3.00 2.50

Total Liabilities 296.42 351.17 397.57 478.01 585.45

Application of Funds
Gross Block 179.99 194.06 204.00 219.91 354.91
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 43.48 59.43 75.74 93.03 115.54
Net Block 136.50 134.63 128.26 126.88 239.37
Capital Work in Progress 6.18 7.86 3.91 0.00 0.00
Investments 75.82 97.06 119.74 185.00 175.00

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 56.10 50.39 58.29 61.79 64.88
Trade receivables 90.69 123.82 130.38 143.42 157.76
Cash and Bank 26.59 14.13 20.29 35.29 28.13
Short term loans (inc. other current assets) 17.80 11.53 11.13 11.15 11.15
Total CA 191.19 199.87 220.09 251.65 261.92

Current Liabilities 102.63 73.85 73.87 77.68 82.77

Provisions-Short term 7.03 10.42 2.09 4.55 5.44
Total Current Liabilities 109.65 84.27 75.96 82.23 88.21

Net Current Assets 81.53 115.60 144.14 169.42 173.72

Net Deferred Tax -4.76 -4.98 -4.19 -8.98 -8.98

8.98
Net long term assets ( net of liabilities) 1.15 1.00 5.70 5.69 6.34
Total Assets 296.42 351.17 397.57 478.01 585.45

*includes preference shares of Rs 59.44 crores

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Key Financial Ratios

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Growth Ratios (%)
Revenue 7.8 0.9 -5.1 16.2 17.6
EBITDA 12.0 30.8 -4.1 17.2 22.5
Net Profit 14.4 24.9 -4.0 18.7 23.6
EPS 14.4 16.9 -3.5 19.5 24.7
Margins (%)
Operating Profit Margin 20.1 26.5 26.9 26.2 27.4
Gross profit Margin 20.7 26.8 27.3 27.8 29.1
Net Profit Margin 13.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 17.5
Return (%)
ROCE 25.5 24.3 20.8 21.4 21.8
ROE 34.2 29.0 21.5 21.6 21.9
Valuations
Market Cap/ Sales 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.3
EV/EBITDA 17.8 12.2 11.9 12.3 10.0
P/E 29.9 21.8 22.1 23.3 18.7
P/BV 8.8 5.2 4.4 4.6 3.7
Other Ratios
Interest Coverage 36.8 36.6 49.6 83.4 151.6
Debt Equity 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Debt-Equity Ratio -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3
Current Ratio 2.4 3.5 4.4 5.2 4.9
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.3 3.8 3.7 4.4 3.6
Total Asset Turnover 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2
Inventory Turnover 6.7 7.1 6.5 6.9 7.6
Debtors Turnover 6.4 4.8 3.8 4.1 4.4
Creditor Turnover 7.0 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.3
WC Ratios
Inventory Days 54.1 51.7 55.9 52.8 48.1
Debtor Days 56.9 76.6 95.7 88.7 83.0
Creditor Days 51.9 43.4 43.0 44.5 44.0
Cash Conversion Cycle 59.1 84.9 108.6 97.0 87.1

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Cumulative Financial Data Figures in crores

FY08-10 FY11
FY11-13 FY14-16 FY17-19e
Income from operations 370 946 1487 1710
Operating profit 51 164 332 460
EBIT 47 157 309 430
PBT 43 151 299 428
PAT after MI 28 102 205 288
Dividends 7 26 51 21

OPM (%) 13.7 17.3 22.3 26.9

NPM (%) 7.4 10.8 13.8 16.8
Interest coverage 12.2 25.1 30.0 82.7
ROE (%) 29.8 42.6 29.7 20.8
ROCE (%) 26.0 37.5 27.7 20.4
Debt Equity 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fixed asset turnover 6.3 8.1 5.2 3.0
Debtors turnover 5.8 7.7 5.5 4.0
Inventory turnover 11.3 9.7 8.1 7.2
Creditors turnover 5.1 7.0 9.1 8.5
Debtor days 62.8 47.5 66.4 90.2
Inventory days 32.4 37.8 44.8 50.5
Creditor days 72.0 52.5 40.2 43.0
Cash conversion 23.2 32.8 71.0 97.6
Dividend payout ratio (%) 23.9 25.3 24.6 7.2
FY08-10 implies three years ending fiscal 10

The margins have expanded in the recent years owing to 4x increase in cumulative revenues from FY08-10
FY08 to FY14-16 led by
consistent improvement on its performance in the export segment (where margins are higher) along with growing popularity
and advantages of synthetic leather. As a result, OPMs surged from 13.7 13.7% in FY08-1010 to 22.3% in FY14-16
FY14 while NPMs
witnessed an uptick from a single digit of 7.4% iin FY08-10 to double digit of 13.8% in FY14-16.
16. Return ratios spiked up to one
of its highest levels in period FY11-13
13 on the backdrop of very high growth in revenues during these years (51%, 28% and 20%
respectively).
Degrowth of revenues in FY17 along with th disruption the business caused due to GST will impair the growth in FY17-19
FY17 period
and lead to a growth of 15%. Such growth will be led by expansion in capacit
capacities,
ies, addition of PU and entry into the European
market. Margins would undoubtedly rise as a result along with very high interest coverage ratio. However, mounting cash
conversion cycle and drastic fall in dividend payout ratio cannot be ignored (see table).

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated

million $ FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Equity Share capital 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Shareholders' funds 35.7 51.6 60.5 73.1 89.8
Total debt 7.2 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.8
Net fixed assets (incl. CWIP) 22.8 21.5 20.4 19.6 36.9
Investments 12.1 14.6 18.5 28.6 27.0
Net Current assets 13.0 17.4 22.0 25.9 26.6
Total Assets 47.4 52.9 61.1 73.6 90.1

Revenues 82.8 78.1 72.3 86.9 102.2

EBITDA 17.6 21.5 20.1 24.4 29.9
EBDT 17.1 20.9 19.7 24.1 29.7
PBT 15.2 18.5 17.3 21.5 26.2
PAT 10.7 12.5 11.7 14.4 17.8
EPS($) 0.25 0.27 0.26 0.32 0.39
Book value ($) 0.82 1.11 1.32 1.61 1.98

Income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet at year end rates; projec
projections
tions at current rates (Rs 64.80/$)
64.80
*All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.

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Disclosure & Disclaimer

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buy: >20% accumulate: >10% to ≤20% hold: ≥-10% to ≤10% reduce: ≥-20% to <-10% sell: <-20%
<
Exchange Rates Used- Indicative
Rs/$ FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Average 60.5 61.15 65.46 67.09
Year end 60.1 62.59 66.33 64.84
All $ values mentioned in the write-up
up translated at the average rate of the respective quarter/ year as applicable. Projections converted at
current exchange rate. Cumulative dollar figure is the sum of respective yearly dollar value
value.

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