TECHNICAL SHEET

UNCERTAINTY OF TEST RESULT

How to estimate the uncertainty of an analytical result through precision and trueness?

The uncertainty of a determination gives a quantitative indication on the quality of the result or about the
ability of a laboratory to implement an analytical process. It is indicator of the level of confidence in the
result. It can also be used to deal with the risk regarding a decision threshold.
 Uncertainty of test result

INDEX

INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................3
USUAL TERMS AND THEIR DEFINITIONS ......................................................................................................4
Uncertainty..........................................................................................................................................................4
Bias .....................................................................................................................................................................4
Quantify a bias ....................................................................................................................................................4
Combined standard uncertainty..........................................................................................................................4
Coverage factor ..................................................................................................................................................4
ASSESS THE UNCERTAINTIES .......................................................................................................................5
Equation model of combined standard uncertainty ............................................................................................5
Random error: intermediate precision ou reproducibility ....................................................................................5
SFi = standard deviation of intermediate precision .............................................................................................5
SR = reproducibliity standard deviation ...............................................................................................................5
Systematic error: bias .........................................................................................................................................5
u²B = variance of observed bias ..........................................................................................................................6
Number of observations .....................................................................................................................................6
REPRESENTATION OF UNCERTAINTY (U) AND WRITING RULES .............................................................6
BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................................6

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 Uncertainty of test result

THE UNCERTAINTY APPLIES TO A RESULT AND NOT TO A METHOD

INTRODUCTION

Estimating the uncertainty gives a quantitative indication of the quality of the measurement result. It is a
confidence level indicator on the accuracy of the result and allows estimating the risk compared to a
decision-making threshold.

The term “uncertainty” means doubt; the result uncertainty is thus a reflect of the difficulty to know exactly the
value of the measured characteristic. By adopting this definition, it is recognized that it characterises the
dispersion once all the sources of error are taken into account. Then, it is possible to determine the interval
in which the true value is located and with its associated probability.

The uncertainty should allow the user to know whether the measurement results are suitable to make
decisions in the context they are used.
In laboratories, the quality of the results will surely impact the relevance of the decision that will be made.
Then, the uncertainty becomes an assistance for the interpretation when the laboratory will have to:
 Declare its compliance with a specification,
 Contribute to the implementation of contractual rules,
 Decide whether the observed differences between results are superior to the experimental variability,
 Express the capability of measurement system,
 Compare methods or equipment.

This technical sheet explains how to estimate a combined uncertainty using:

 Some data coming from tests performed in accordance with the ISO 5725 standard, such as
reproducibility or intermediate precision standard deviations,
 Trueness data such as values of bias coming from proficiency tests or ERM use.

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 Uncertainty of test result

USUAL TERMS AND THEIR DEFINITIONS

Uncertainty
Parameter associated with an analysis result, which characterizes the dispersion of the values that can
reasonably be attributed to the measured characteristic.
Dispersion of the values: quantified as standard deviation, measuring the maximum variability of the results
when the method is implemented = precision.
Reasonably: positioning compared to a “true” value = trueness.

Bias
Difference between a test result and the accepted reference value

Quantify a bias
The term “to quantify”, commonly used with the term “bias”, means to attribute a value to the bias in order to
make it useful in a statistical treatment.

Combined standard uncertainty

Square-root of the sum of the variances (from different uncertainty sources).

Coverage factor
Numerical factor used as multiplier of the combined standard uncertainty to obtain the uncertainty. The most
frequent values used are k=2 for a probability of 95% and k=3 for a probability of 99.8%.

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ASSESS THE UNCERTAINTIES

From a practical point of view, the uncertainty is estimated from standard deviations.

The calculation can be performed:

 By the whole breakdown of the process (causal 5M diagram) and the identification of the influencing
factors (GUM model),
or,
 By the use of precision and trueness as uncertainty estimator (see ISO 21748 and ISO 11352
standards).

This technical sheet describes the way to calculate uncertainty, using precision and trueness.

Equation model of combined standard uncertainty

The model proposed to estimate the uncertainty is a combination of precision variance and trueness
variance, which are known or quantifiable parameters. However, their validity will have to be demonstrated.

Mathematically, the following data are available: u²C = S²Fi + u²B

The basic principle is a combination of two types of errors Random error (precision) and Systematic error
(trueness).

In hereafter example, the precision variance S2Fi associated with the bias U2(B) give the combined standard
uncertainty.

The square of the combined standard uncertainty represents the standard uncertainty:
uC = Square root (S²Fi + u²B)

uc (test) = √0.094 = 0,31

Result uncertainty (U) is obtained by multiplying the standard uncertainty by the coverage factor k=2

U (test) = 0,31*2 = 0,62

Random error: intermediate precision or reproducibility

The random error is available under 2 forms:

 The dispersion data calculated in a precision study performed within a laboratory (see Precision
sheet) and expressed as:

SFi = standard deviation of intermediate precision

 The dispersion data coming from the standard, applied in the absence of internal precision and
expressed as:
SR = reproducibliity standard deviation

Systematic error: bias

The bias is a systematic error, in opposition with the random error (unpredictable). It can be considered as
trueness error.

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 Uncertainty of test result

The bias is available from several data:

 The exploitation of the results of proficiency tests, as those of BIPEA,
 The use of external reference materials (ERM) or standard additions,
 The comparison of methods other than the standard method.

u²B = variance of observed bias

Number of observations

The estimators of the bias must be identified and it is necessary to check whether the bias is under control.
Statistically, the quantification of the bias (3) should be associated with tests, allowing the laboratory to rule
whether the bias is significant or not:
 A ramp test via linear regression followed by Student test 1 ,
 A relation of equality of means followed by a test of Student.

REPRESENTATION OF UNCERTAINTY (U) AND WRITING RULES

The uncertainty (U) associated with a result (R) is the result of the product of combined standard uncertainty
(uc) multiplied by a coverage factor (5) (k). The value of k should be specified.

R ± U with k=2

The uncertainty is expressed with 2 significant digits at most. The number of significant digits used in (U) is
kept for the result (R).
As a reminder: 0 is considered as significant digit when it is positioned between other figures or at their right.

It can be found It cannot be found

12.578 ± 0.013 V with k = 2 12.578 ± 0.113 V with k = 2

BIBLIOGRAPHY

 ISO 11352 Water quality - Estimation of measurement uncertainty based on validation and quality
control data

 NF ISO 21748 Guidance for the use of repeatability, reproducibility and trueness estimates in
measurement uncertainty evaluation

 NF V 03-110 Protocol of characterization for the validation of a quantitative method of analysis by

construction of an accuracy profile

 FD V 03-116 Analysis of agricultural and food products - Guide for application of metrological data

 FD X07-021 Fundamental standards - Metrology and application of the statistics - Help to the
process for the estimation and the use of the measurement and test results uncertainty

 EURACHEM/CITAC Guide, Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement (2012) Third Edition

1
Student test: Parametric test based on means comparisons; it is used to compare two independent or paired samples.

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