SDM 5001 SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE

LECTURE 1.1
SYSTEMS AND SYSTEMS CONCEPTS

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 Origin of the word “Systems”

Root Definition
o from Late Latin systema
o from Greek systema
o from stem of synistanai
"an arrangement, system"
"organized whole, a whole compounded of parts”
"to place together, organize, form in order”
from syn- "together" + root of histanai “cause to stand"

Example of Usage of the word Systems

1610 whole creation, the universe: Solar Systems
1680 animal body as an organized whole: Body Systems
1963 computer sense of a group of related programs and devices : Computer System

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 Systems Definitions
Definitions
o A system is a group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a
complex whole (American Heritage Dictionary)

o A system as a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more

stated purposes (ISO/IEC 15288)

o A system is an interacting combination of elements to accomplish a defined objective.

These include hardware, software, firmware, people, information, techniques, facilities,
services, and other support elements (INCOSE)

o A system comprises system elements with interactions between them through their
interfaces. A system is enclosed in a system boundary and is surrounded by an external
environment

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 Purpose of a System
Why do we need Systems?

Stated Purpose (intent, objectives or mission) of a system is to provide a solution to a

problem (nature or man-made) to satisfy user requirements

The System Objectives are a set of goals and constraints that include
o system behavior with beneficial or value-added functions (goals)
o system performance during the system lifetime (goals)
o environment in which the system must perform (constraints)
o cost, schedule, regulations, and legal (constraints)

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 System of Interest
Definition
A system-of-interest (SOI) is a collective set of all elements of any system considered in
a system lifecycle by the user

It consists of system elements and their interconnections that exist within the defined
boundary

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 System Elements
Definition
A system element can be hardware, software, data, humans, processes (eg processes for providing
service to users), procedures (eg operator or software instructions), facilities, materials, and
naturally occurring entities (eg water, organisms, minerals, energy), or any combination.
(ISO/IEC 15288:2008)

o Elements of a system may be represented conceptually in symbolic form (abstract systems) or

real objects (concrete systems)

Abstract systems contain only conceptual elements (eg capability systems, process systems)

Concrete systems contain at least two elements that are real objects (eg product systems,
society, information, software and physical components)

o System Elements can also be systems (“sub systems”)

in a complex systems

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 System Elements and System Operations

Classification of Elements of a System

System Elements System Operations

Material Elements to provide structure and transformation of materials
Signal Elements to sense and communicate information
Data Elements to interpret, organize, and manipulate information
Energy Elements to provide energy and motion power
Procedural to provide instructions for interaction of elements (software)
Elements

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 System Boundary
Definition
A system boundary defined by those relationships which relate to membership of the system
The setting of a boundary and hence the identification of a system is ultimately the choice of the
observer .…
any particular identification of a system is a human construct used to help make better sense of a
set of things and to share that understanding with others if needed (SEBOK Part 2)

Closed Systems encloses all aspects of the system exist within this boundary
o no interactions with its environment
o useful for work with abstract systems and for some theoretical system descriptions

Open Systems comprises systems elements and relationships which can be considered part of the
system, and those which describe the interactions across the boundary between system
elements and elements in the environment
o system exchanges inputs and outputs with its environment

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(Ref: 1968, von Bertalanfly (1968) General System theory: Foundations, Development, Applications, New York: George Braziller) © LGChan
 System Environment
Definition
Anything affecting a subject system or affected by a subject system through interactions with it, or
anything sharing an interpretation of interactions with a subject system (IEEE 1175.1-2002
(R2007), 3.6)
The surroundings (natural or man‐made) in which the system‐of-interest is utilized and supported;
or in which the system is being developed, produced or retired (INCOSE 2010)

System Environment is the space, beyond the system boundary, which interacts with the system
of interest
o Immediate Environment: intended effect of the planned system
o Potential Environment: likely impact of the planned system
o Unknown Environment: unintended side effects of the system

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System of Interest, System Boundary, System Environments begin
with the Context of the Use (Stated Purpose)

System Boundary
System of
Context of Use
Interest

System Environment
Stated Purpose

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 Stakeholders Resources Controls

Materials
Behavior:
Signal
Materials Signal Products
Data Inputs SYSTEM Outputs Performance
Energy/Data Procedure
Energy
Capability
Procedures

Boundary Standards Regulations Constraints

ENVIRONMENT

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 System Elements Interactions
Interaction of various elements (materials, energy, data, signals, procedures) will produce new
behavior of a system (emergent behavior)
When certain elements are missing in the system, these elements can be inputted from outside
Example:
o Energy is required to operate a system
o Input data information to software systems

Definition
Process is work performed on, or in response to, incoming information or changing conditions
o Process is a system interaction
o “Work Done”

Function is a process that transforms inputs into outputs

o Function is a system behavior
o A system may have more than one function depending on the input
o “Ability to Do Work”
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 Interaction at Systems Interfaces
o Systems or subsystems provides some structural relationship of the elements
o Materials or Information are exchanged between the system elements or subsystems
o A function is performed (transfer/transform) across the common interface from one
system to another system
o Stable interface is result of standards (specifications) and specific design (design rules)

System Interface

Process Function: Transfer Process

“Send” Flow
“Receive”
Flow
System 1 System 2
Feedback

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 Interactions of a System
Two Types of Interactions

Internal Interactions within the System of Interest

These are Processes performed among system elements which are governed by properties of
system elements (natural or man-made)

External Interactions with the System Environment

These are inputs or outputs at the system interfaces located at the system boundary

Interactions produce emergent properties and new behavior of a System

System Functions are normally seen as external behavior of a System

System Processes are internal transformation inside a System

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 Systems Interfaces
Interfaces are the points of contact between interacting system elements and other subsystems
(internal interface) or the environment (external interface) at the system boundaries

o Interfaces embed functions of component parts or subcomponents at the systems boundary

o An Interface can be physical object (eg USB connector) or
a functional link (eg software layer function in Application Programming Interface, API)

o Importance of Systems Interfaces

– hide the complexity of the systems of interest, its systems elements, and interactions of elements
– defines system of interest at its boundary
– specification key to assembly/integration/checkout, maintainability, product evolution and
adaptability
– potential area of design uncertainty because it depends on the definition of system of interest,
boundary and environment

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Example: Systems Interfaces of a Computer

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 Example: System Map of a Product

Identify system of interest, subsystems

Canon EOS 40D DSLR Camera Identify elements, boundaries, interfaces, environment
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 System of Systems Representation

Systems Layers

Systems Plan View

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 System of Systems (SoS)
Definition
A SoS is an integration of a number of constituent systems which are
independent and operatable, and which are networked together for a period
of time to achieve a certain higher goal (SEBoK)

A SoS is a system-of-interest whose elements are managerially and/or

operationally independent systems. These interoperating and/or integrated
collections of systems produce results unachievable by the individual systems
alone (INCOSE Handbook)

A SoS is a set or arrangement of systems that results when independent and

useful systems are integrated into a larger system that delivers unique
capabilities (US Department of Defense)
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Simple SoS with a finite number of sub-systems and well defined system boundary
Example:
o Many man made products and manufactured products are simple SoS

Complex SoS with an indefinite number of sub-systems and uncertain system

boundary and environment
Example:
o Socio Technical Systems involving society and technology involving many stakeholders with
complicated requirements
o Natural Systems are mostly complex SoS

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 Sources of Complexity in System of Systems
Integration Of Components
There are many interrelations between a large number of components (N 2 number of
interactions), recursive levels of integration, non linear response

Heterogeneity Of Components
Several specialized fields are involved in the design of a complex system, making it difficult to
keep a unified vision of this system and to manage its overall design

Uncertain Environment Or Unstable Boundaries

Unpredictable performance of the unstable environment may lead to unpredictable
performance, while constantly changing boundaries make it difficult to define the problem
domain, and hence, difficulty to obtain the solution space

Examples: aircraft and automobile design/production, space satellites, electricity power grid,
transportation, world wide web

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 Properties of System of Systems (SoS) 1
1 Operational and Managerial Independence of the Individual Systems
SoS is composed of systems that are independent and useful in their own ways
SoS sub-systems are capable of independently performing useful operations independently to
achieve an intended purpose

2 Geographic Distribution
Geographic dispersion of component systems is often large and can readily exchange only
information and knowledge with one another

3 Emergent Behavior
SoS performs functions and carries out purposes that are not necessarily associated with any
sub-systems

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 Properties of System of Systems (SoS) 2
4 Evolutionary Development
Development of an SoS is evolves over time
Components of structure, function, and purpose are added, removed, and modified with
experience

5 Self - Organization
SoS is dynamic and is able to change in respond to changes in the environment and to changes in
goals and objectives for the SoS

6 Adaptation
SoS is dynamic and able to adapt to external changes and perceptions of the environment

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 Engineering Systems
Definition
An open complex system of technical or socio-technical elements that exhibit emergent
properties not exhibited by the individual system elements (SEBoK)

A class of systems characterized by a high degree of technical complexity, social intricacy, and
elaborate processes, aimed at fulfilling important functions in society (de Weck)

Properties of Engineering Systems:

o complex and large scale systems
o created by and for people (artificial)
o having a purpose with multiple views
o satisfying key stakeholders value propositions (requirements)
o having a life cycle and evolution dynamics
o having a boundary and an external environment
o being a part of a system-of-interest hierarchy

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Ref: de Weck 2011 Engineering Systems-Meeting Human Needs in a Complex Technological World Cambridge MA MIT Press © LGChan
Examples of Engineering Systems

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 Examples of Engineering Systems
Type Example
Products systems are man made things which are automobile, aircraft, security system, data
developed and delivered to the user with the storage system, airline booking system
required functions for the final user

Services Systems are processes that provides health care, transportation, internet
capability and performance for a user without
necessarily delivering the product system

Enterprise Systems are purposeful combination government, military defense, human

(network) of interdependent resources in an resource, enterprise resource planning
institution or organization

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A Classification Scheme of Systems Types

System of
Systems

Simple Systems Complex Systems

(fixed boundaries, (changing boundaries,
eg machineries) eg climate )

Small Scale Systems Large Scale Systems

(small scale (large distribution
eg cells, bacteria) eg internet)

Not Man Made

Systems Engineering Systems
(socio technical impact,
(natural eg climate,
eg transportation )
solar systems

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END OF LECTURE 1.1
SYSTEMS CONCEPTS

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 SDM 5001 SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE

LECTURE 1.2
SYSTEMS ARCHIECTURE VS SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

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 System Engineering Definitions
Definitions
o Systems Engineering is a discipline that concentrates on the design and application of
the whole (system) as distinct from the parts

o Systems Engineering is an iterative process of top-down synthesis, development,

operation of a real-world system that satisfies, in a near optimal manner, the full range
of requirements for the system

o Systems Engineering is an engineering discipline whose responsibility is creating and

executing an interdisciplinary process to ensure that the customer and stakeholder's
needs are satisfied in a high quality, trustworthy, cost efficient and schedule compliant
manner throughout a system's entire life cycle (INCOSE Handbook)

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 System Engineering Life Cycle
The evolution of a system, product, service, project or other human-made
entity from conception through retirement (ISO/IEC 2008)

Elicitation

Disposal Requirements

Utilize/Maintain Feasibility/Concept

Implement/Test Analysis/Design

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 System Engineering Life Cycle Process 1
Implementation
Concept
Elicitation Analysis Utilization Retirement
Feasibility
Design
Testing

System Architecting Stage (Elicitation, Concept, Feasibility)

o determining the system key stakeholders and their desired capabilities
o developing the system concept of operations (ConOps) and business case (business
plan)
o negotiating the system requirements among the key stakeholders
o performing system analysis of process, and functions in order to illustrate the
compatibility and feasibility of the resulting system definition
o selecting the system non-developmental items (off the shelf purchases)
o developing the system architecture and systems-level life cycle plans

Adapted from ISO15288

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 System Engineering Life Cycle Process 2
Implementation
Concept
Elicitation Analysis Utilization Retirement
Feasibility
Design
Testing

System Analysis and Design Stage

o key stakeholders decide that the system development elements
o detailed analysis of systems
o technical design of system components by specialist disciplines
o engineering specialists to work closely with system architect
o construction of the developmental elements
o integration of these with each other

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 System Engineering Life Cycle Process 3
Implementation
Concept
Elicitation Analysis Utilization Retirement
Feasibility
Design
Testing

System Implementation and Testing

o System Implementation involves the construction of system copies or versions and
production quality monitoring and improvement
o System Testing includes validation and verification of system requirements, and
corrective action for defects

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 System Engineering Life Cycle Process 4
Implementation
Concept
Elicitation Analysis Utilization Retirement
Feasibility
Design
Testing

System Utilization Stage

o System Utilization includes use of the system by operators, administrators, the
general public, or systems above it in the system-of-interest hierarchy
It includes maintenance and support services

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 System Engineering Life Cycle Process 5
Implementation
Concept
Elicitation Analysis Utilization Retirement
Feasibility
Design
Testing

System Retirement Stage (Disposal)

o System versions or elements become obsolete or are no longer economical to support
o System support is terminated
o Disposal or recycling of their content

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 Systems Architecture Emphasis
Top Down Approach
o Views the system as a whole (holistic approach)

Life Cycle Orientation

o Includes all phases in system design and development, production, testing, operation,
maintenance, retirement, disposal

System Requirements
o Stakeholders requirements
o Well defined and specified system criteria, and traceability of these requirements

Interdisciplinary
o Team approach of members with specialized skills

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 Systems Architecture vs System Engineering
Difference between Systems Architecting and System Engineering

Systems Architecture is a complex process of creating and building systems

architecture which takes into the viewpoints of various stakeholders, both
technical and social, under constraints imposed by the defined boundary of the
system
An Overall Process

Systems Engineering is the application of scientific and mathematical principles

to the design, manufacture, and operation of efficient and economical
combinations of interacting elements that accomplish a defined objective
A Specialised Process

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Optional Video: Systems Engineer vs System Architect https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWnESjf4ajQ © LGChan
 Systems Architecture vs System Engineering
Common in both
Characteristics Engineering Architecture
Architecture & Engineering
Understood Ill-Structured Constrained
Situation/Goals
Optimization Satisfaction Compliance
Equations Heuristics
Methods Analysis Synthesis Art and Science
Science and Art Art and Science
Interfaces Completeness Focus on “Mis-Fits” Critical
System Integrity Disciplined Methodology and Clear Objectives
“Single Mind”
Maintained Through Process
Working for Builder / Client Working for Client Working for Client
Meeting Project Conceptualization and Whole Waterfalls
Management Issues
Requirements
Certification Confidentiality Conflict of Interest
Profit vs Cost

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(Ref: Reichtin Maier (2009) The Art of Systems Architecting 3rd edition Boca Raton CRC Press) © LGChan
END OF LECTURE 1.2
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

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SDM 5001 SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE

LECTURE 1.3
SYSTEMS THINKING

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 Systems Thinking
Definitions
o a discipline for seeing wholes ... a framework for seeing interrelationships
rather than things ... a process of discovery and diagnosis ... and as a
sensibility for the subtle interconnectedness that gives living systems their
unique character (Senge 2006, pp 68-69)

o Systems thinking is the process of understanding how those things which

may be regarded as systems influence one another within a complete
entity, or larger system (Wikipedia)

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 The Systems Thinking Approach

1. Understand the whole system (holistic thinking)

2. Understand the nature of the problem (requirements, boundary and environment)
3. Understand interconnections between things (interfaces)
4. Understand interrelationships to produce system synergy or disruption (complexity, system
dynamics)
5. Understand the interrelationships among parts relative to a common purpose of systems
components (modularity)
6. Seeing things from different perspectives (viewpoints)
7. Simplifying systems without losing details (abstraction)
8. Recognizing repeated events and patterns rather than things (heuristics)
9. Optimizing performance of system (architecture platform, trade off study)
10. What will it lead to? (uncertainty, states, use case)

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 Hard and Soft System Thinking Approaches
Hard System Thinking Soft System Thinking
Objective Hard/Well Defined Problem Soft/Ill Structured Fuzzy Problem
Assumptions of System Systematic/Logical World Metaphor/Systemic Mind
Problem Solving Style End Means Participation/Debate/Reform
Process Goal Optimization/Satisfaction Learning/Satisfying
Acting Focus Goal Oriented Process Oriented
Applying Methods Positive-Empirical Interpretive-Exploratory
Philosophical Thoughts Reductionist/Do the thing right Holism/Do the right thing
Example Scientific Analytical Methods CATWOE method

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(Ref: Pan Valerdi Kang (2013) Systems Thinking-A Comparison between Chinese and Western Approaches Procedia Computer Science 16 pp 1027 – 1035) © LGChan
 Heuristics
Definition
o A heuristic is a common sense rule intended to increase the
probability of solving some problem,
eg a rule of thumb, guideline

o A guideline for architecting, engineering, or design

Lessons learned expressed as a guideline
A natural language abstraction of experience (Reithin Maier 2009)

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 Heuristics
What are the qualities of Heuristics?
o It is informal or pragmatic approach based on experience and learned knowledge
o It must make sense in the original context and beyond (example: wise sayings)
o It is be easily understood and rationalized in a few minutes (think proverbs)

Why use Heuristics ? (Leveraging on Heuristics)

o More efficient because it saves time and cost from experimenting what other people have
done
o Learned from other people successes and mistakes
o Choose from best designs
o Appropriate for socio-technical systems which are complex and cannot be easily modelled
and quantify

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 Heuristics Example 1
Heuristics from Systems Principles (Maier and Rechtin 2000) :

Interaction principle
Relationships among the elements are what give systems their added value

Leverage principle
Efficiency is inversely proportional to universality

Parsimony principle*
Manage complications and complexity by simplifying

Abstraction principle
In order to understand anything, you must not try to understand everything
(originally from Aristotle)

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*Parsimony (noun) : extremely unwillingness to spend more time and money) © LGChan
 Heuristics Example 2
INCOSE Pragmatic Heuristics Principles
Report on “An Identification of Pragmatic Principles” (INCOSE 1993)

o Know the problem, the customer, and the consumer

o Identify and assess alternatives so as to converge on a solution
o Maintain the integrity of the system
o Use effectiveness criteria based on needs to make system decisions
o Establish and manage requirements
o Use an articulated and documented process
o Manage against a plan

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 Tool Kits for Systems Thinking 1
Dynamic Thinking Tools

Behaviour Over Time Diagram

Use to graph behaviour of variables over time and understand inter-
relationships between them

Causal Loop Diagram

To be used together with behaviour over time diagram.
To help you to identify reinforcing R1 (+) and balancing B1 (-)
processes

Systems Archetype
Recurring Stories of Cause and Effect

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 Tool Kits for Systems Thinking 2
Computer Based Tools

Computer Modelling
Using computers to stimulate and explore systems behaviour
Agent Based Modelling, Discrete Event Modeling, Systems Dynamics
Software: Stella, iThink, XMILE, AnyLogic

Management Flight Simulator

Risk Free training for managers using interactive computer games
based on computer model

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END LECTURE 1.3
SYSTEMS THINKING

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SDM 5001 SYSTEMS ARCHITECTURE

LECTURE 1.4
SYSTEMS DYNAMICS

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 What is Systems Dynamics?

System dynamics is an approach to understanding behavior of complex non-linear systems

over time, using feedback loops, time delays, stocks and flows that affect the behavior of the
entire system

Mental models are constructed to represent the causal effect mechanics of the system
behavior in the real world

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 Principles of Systems Dynamics
Laws of Fifth Discipline (Senge 1990)
o For every action, there is a reaction
o Short-term improvements often lead to long term difficulties
o Cause and effect are not necessarily closely related, either in time or in space (Sometimes
solutions implemented here and now will have impacts far away at a much later time)
o The entirety of an issue is often more than the simple aggregation of the components of
the issue
o The entire system, comprised of the organization and its environment, must be
considered together

How to Construct an Ideal Systems Model

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 Components of Stock Flow Diagram
Flow
Material or information that enters or leaves a stock over a period of time
o The speed of flow is flow rate which could be controlled
o Flow is not dependent on previous values of that rate, but dependent on the levels in a system along with
external influences

Stock
An accumulation of material or information that has built up in a system over time
o Stock can also be a source or sink
o Source represents systems of levels and rates outside the boundary of the model
o Sink is where flows terminate outside the system

Feedback Loop
Mechanism (rule or information flow or signal) that allows a change in a stock to affect a flow into or out of that
same stock
o A closed chain of causal connections will have a feedback loop because flow from a stock, through a set of
decisions and actions dependent on the level of the stock, and back again through a flow to change the stock
o An open chain will not have feedback loop

Control
Mechanism for regulating flow rate by opening (increasing flow) or closing (decreasing flow) 4
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 Principles of Stocks, Flows, and Dynamic Equilibrium
Basic Principles
o A stock is the memory of the history of changing flows within the system
o If the sum of inflows exceeds the sum of outflows, stock level will rise
o If the sum of outflows exceeds the sum of inflows, stock level will fall
o If the sum of outflows equals the sum of inflows, stock level will not change
(dynamic equilibrium)
o A stock can be increased by decreasing its outflow rate AND/OR by increasing its
inflow rate
o Stocks act as delays or buffers or shock absorbers in systems (delays in system)
o A feedback loop is a closed chain of causal connections from a stock and back again
through a flow to change the stock

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 Feedback in Systems Dynamics
Dynamic equilibrium
The condition in which the state of a stock (its level or its size) is steady and
unchanging, despite inflows and outflows
This is possible only when all inflows equal all outflows

2 Main Type of Feedbacks

Positive Feedback or Reinforcing Feedback loop
It is an amplifying or enhancing feedback loop which further destabilizes the system
It reinforces by itself the direction of change. These are vicious cycles

Negative Feedback or Balancing Feedback loop

It is a stabilizing, goal-seeking, self correcting or regulating feedback loop
It opposes, or reverses, whatever direction of change is imposed on the system

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 Example: Bath Tub Analogy for Dynamic Equilibrium
Goal: To maintain a water level in a bath tub
Controls: Rate of water inflow and rate of water outflow

Representation of Stock in Bath Tub at any time t:

water in tub at time (t) = increase of water in tub (∆t) + (inflow – outflow) * ∆t

rate of water flowing in

Bathtub
water flow out

water flow in
Source Sink

Bath Tub Analogy

rate of water flowing out

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Example: Temperature Control with Feedback

heating cooling ambient temperature

(time constant)
Feedback
House
Temp
temp loss/gain

heating/cooling
Source Sink

temp loss
(time constant)

proportional error signal thermostat

control signal setting

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Demonstration : Temperature Control

http://forio.com/simulate/netsim/temperature-controller/run/

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AN EXERCISE IN SYSTEMS DYNAMICS

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 STATIC SYSTEM

In Out Time 0 1 2 3 4 5
Process
Input 1 1 1 2 2
X2
Output 2 2 2 4 4

System Element Process: Name 2 things which you learn from this System
- Each Operation Takes 1 second
- Multiply by 2

DYNAMIC SYSTEM Time 0 1 2 3 4 5

Input 1 1 1 2 2
In Out Feedback 0 2 6 14 32
Process
X2 1x2 1x2+ 1x2+ 2x2+ 2x2+
Process 2x2 6x2 14x2 32x2
Final Output 2 6 14 32 68

Each Operation Takes 1 second

There is no delay in feedback
What is this Principle in Systems Concepts? 11
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DYNAMIC SYSTEM What is the Boundary of this System?

In Out What is the Function of this System?

Process
X X2
Y - Amplify/Increase Input to Two Times

What is the Behaviour or Outcome of this System?

System Element Process:
o Each Operation Takes 1 second
o Multiply by 2
o There is no delay in feedback
- Output is Twice the Input
What Processes are needed to obtain this Behaviour/Outcome?
- Adding, Multiplying, Mixed

Process
Yt = 2 X(t-1)
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 DYNAMIC SYSTEM Let us change the Boundary of this System?

In Out What is the System of Systems? What is the Subsystem?

Process
A X X2
Y B
What is the Function of this System?
- Amplify/Increase Input to ?? Times

System Element Process: What is the Behaviour or Outcome of this System?

o Each Operation Takes 1 second - ?? How do you find out
o Multiply by 2
o There is no delay in feedback What Processes are needed to obtain this Behaviour/Outcome?
- ?? How do you find out/prove

Process
Bt = 2A(t-1) + 2B(t-1)
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 STATIC SYSTEM in SERIES
In Out In Out
1 Process
X2
2 Process
X3
6
System 1 System 2

STATIC SYSTEM in PARALLEL

What is this Principle in
In Out Systems Concepts?
1 Process
X2
2
System Elements can have
System 1 different processes
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In Out
1 Process
X3
6
System 2
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 STATIC SYSTEM in SERIES with FEEDFORWARD

In Out In Out Out

1 Process
X2
2 Process
X3 6 8
System 1 System 2

What type of behavior uses Feed Forward? Learning Points

1 Budget Forecasting
2 Production Planning
3 Scenario Planning
4
5

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 Feedback in Systems Thinking
Systems Thinking employ feedback loops at multiple stages

Feedback is used to ensure that the actual direction corresponds to the desired
direction

Feedback is the starting point of learning process because it provides for the
detection of mistakes
o Without learning, similar mistakes are repeated leading to wasted resources
o With learning, individuals and organizations become more efficient and productive

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 System Archetypes
System Archetypes are system structures that produce common patterns of
problematic behaviour across many different types of systems

Archetypes are often called “traps” because they’re extremely common, and yet
policymakers struggle to identify them early and deal with them effectively

Question: Name a system thinking approach that employ system archetypes

Answer: Heuristics

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 Two Simple Causal Loop Models of System Dynamics
Primary Effect in One Feedback Loop
Our decisions alter the environment
leading to new decisions with
feedback loop
Secondary Effect in Two Feedback Loops
Triggering side effects, delayed reactions,
changes in goals and interventions by
others.
These feedbacks may lead to
unanticipated results and ineffective
policies (Side Effects)
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 More Archetypes of System Dynamics
Reinforcing loop
an important variable accelerates
up/down, with exponential
growth/collapse
Example:
Climate change melts ice, reducing the
albedo effect, further warming the
planet
Balancing loop Fixes that backfire
Oscillating around a single target (with A quick fix solution can have unintended
delay), or movement toward a target results that make the problem worse.
(without delay) The problem symptom temporarily
Example: improves and then deteriorates, worse
Managing population levels of an than before
endangered specie Example:
Negative rebound effects from efficiency
investments

Reinforced
Action

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EXAMPLES

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 Numerical Example: Logistic Map
Logistic Map Equation:
x n+1 = r xn (1 - xn)
0 < xn < 1 represents the ratio of existing population to the maximum possible population
o Investigate value of x for r values from 0 to 4
o Demonstration http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_map

Cubic Map
xt = x3(t-1) – r x(t-1)

Sinusoid Map
xt = r sin x(t-1)
Final Stable Value of x

Deterministic Equation
but Unstable
CHAOS
Result of Iteration
Bifurcation Diagram 21
© LGChan
 What we learned from Chaos and Complex Systems
Chaos System is a non-linear dynamic system
o Non-linear means that due to feedback or multiplicative effects between the components,
the whole becomes something greater than just adding up the individual parts
o Dynamic means the system changes over time based on its current state

Deterministic systems can produce wildly fluctuating and non-repeating behaviour

Chaos systems
o depend on initial conditions and path dependent
o indicates that there are limits to knowledge and prediction (some futures may be unknowable)
o have emergent and new behaviors not seen in a deterministic way
o interventions into a system may have unpredictable outcomes even if they initially change
things only slightly, as these effects compound over time

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© LGChan
What of Feedback is present in the Human Body?
Homeostasis
The tendency towards a relatively stable equilibrium between
interdependent elements, especially as maintained by
physiological processes

Negative Feedback
Almost all homeostatic control mechanisms are negative
feedback mechanisms:
o Acid-base balance
o Body temperature
o Glucose level
o Calcium level
o Fluid volume

Positive Feedback
o Oxytocin - hormone that acts as a neurotransmitter in
the brain

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 Example: Water Resources in Singapore
Identify the Sources,
Sinks, and Feedback in this
system

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(Source: Poh Xi 2013 Using system dynamics for sustainable water resources management in Singapore. Procedia Computer Science 16 pp 157 – 166 ) © LGChan
 Example: Water Resources in Singapore
Source Sink Source

Sink
Sink

Source
Sink

FEEDBACK

FEEDBACK

Sink
Source Sink
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(Source: Poh Xi 2013 Using system dynamics for sustainable water resources management in Singapore. Procedia Computer Science 16 pp 157 – 166 ) © LGChan
END OF LECTURE 1.4
SYSTEMS DYNAMICS

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© LGChan