Infosys (INFO IN)

Rating: ACCUMULATE | CMP: Rs738 | TP: Rs804

March 29, 2019 Inorganic strategy to maintain revenue

momentum
Event Update
Infosys has announced strategic partnership with ABN AMRO by acquiring
☑ Change in Estimates | ☑ Target | ☑ Reco
75% shareholding in Stater NV (a subsidiary of ABN AMRO) which provides
Change in Estimates pure-play, end-to-end mortgage administration services in Netherlands,
Current Previous Belgium and Germany. Infosys will pay EUR 127.5 mn (~USD 143 mn) for the
FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
75% stake. (Expected closure: Q1FY20). Acquisition of Stater is in sync with
Rating ACCUMULATE BUY
Target Price 804 810 Infosys strategy of strengthening its position in Continental Europe and we
Sales (Rs. m) 9,15,072 10,02,167 9,28,572 10,21,175
expect revenue for the business to be ~USD 200 mn with high single digit
% Chng. (1.5) (1.9)
EBITDA (Rs. m) 2,33,422 2,55,436 2,41,421 2,67,548 margin, implying valuation of ~1x EV/Sales. It will add ~1.6% revenue growth
% Chng. (3.3) (4.5)
EPS (Rs.) 38.7 43.5 43.8 48.1
& impact on EBIT margins will be 25bps (assuming EBIT margins of 7%) &
% Chng. (11.7) (9.5) will be marginally EPS-dilutive on FY20E. The inorganic strategy of Infosys
will help them to accelerate revenue momentum. We expect 9.3% USD
Key Financials revenue & 10.3% EPS CAGR over FY19E-21E. We have Accumulate rating on
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Infosys & value at 18.5x Mar-21 earnings to arrive at a target price of Rs.804.
Sales (Rs. bn) 705 827 915 1,002
EBITDA (Rs. bn) 190 210 233 255
 Strengthening positioning in Continental Europe: The partnership will
Margin (%) 27.0 25.4 25.5 25.5
PAT (Rs. bn) 146 156 168 189 strengthen Infosys’ position in mortgage services value chain, improve
EPS (Rs.) 33.6 35.8 38.7 43.5 experience and operational efficiencies, and partner with clients on their digital
Gr. (%) 6.9 6.5 8.1 12.5
DPS (Rs.) 34.2 35.0 42.0 42.0
roadmap. Stater is a market leader in the Benelux region, operating across
Yield (%) 4.6 4.7 5.7 5.7 mortgage and consumer lending value chain with deep capabilities in digital
RoE (%) 21.8 25.1 28.9 32.8
origination, servicing and collection. It also has strong European mortgage
RoCE (%) 25.6 30.8 36.9 40.5
EV/Sales (x) 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.0 expertise and robust digital platform to drive enhanced customer experience.
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.5 14.2 12.9 11.7 Infosys will drive the digital transformation roadmap of Stater with accelerators
PE (x) 22.0 20.6 19.1 17.0
P/BV (x) 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.5
like dynamic workflow, API layers, RPA and analytics.

 Strong clientele of Stater will help Infosys to penetrate in Continental

Key Data INFY.BO | INFO IN Europe: Stater with its leadership in Benelux region in mortgage and consumer
52-W High / Low Rs.772 / Rs.542
lending segment has a strong clientele – Deutsche, Allianz, Lloyds Bank, ABN
Sensex / Nifty 38,546 / 11,570
Market Cap Rs.3,223bn/ $ 46,730m AMRO, CMIMS Group. While Infosys has relationship with some of these
Shares Outstanding 4,369m
3M Avg. Daily Value Rs.11789.67m
clients, the combined offering with Stater will enable it to better penetrate
existing and new clients in Continental Europe.

Shareholding Pattern (%)

 Increasing footprint in BFS (mortgage vertical): Stater’s expertise in
Promoter’s 13.29
Foreign 34.46 mortgage services market and leadership in Benelux region combined with
Domestic Institution 22.57 Infosys’ global reach, AI, digital transformation and automation capabilities will
Public & Others 29.67
Promoter Pledge (Rs bn) - have a strong proposition and help improve client penetration in a relatively
protectionist market.
Stock Performance (%)
1M 6M 12M
 Stater is largest mortgage service provider in Benelux, founded in 1997. It
Absolute 0.5 1.6 32.1 services 1.7 mn mortgage and insurance loans for ~50 clients in Netherlands
Relative (6.5) (4.5) 13.0
and Belgium. Stater in CY17 had revenues of USD172.6 mn and profits of
USD7.64mn (~4.4% PAT margin). It has solid client base with several of largest
Aniket Pande
Dutch and Belgian banks and is a trusted partner for mortgages.
aniketpande@plindia.com | 91-22-66322300
Rajat Gandhi  Other Key highlights: ABN AMRO will keep a strategic interest of 25% and
rajatgandhi@plindia.com | 91-22-66322246
will continue to be an important client to Stater & transaction is expected to
close in Q1FY20. Stater has employee strength of about 1,350 & they have
onsite centric model.

March 29, 2019 1

 Infosys

Quick view of estimates of Infosys

CAGR
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
FY19E-21E
INR/Dollar 64.5 70.0 70.5 71.0
USD Revenues 10,939 11,818 12,980 14,115 9.3%
% change (YoY) 7.2% 8.0% 9.8% 8.7%
EBITDA Margins 27.0% 25.4% 25.5% 25.5%
bps change (YoY) -21 bps -151 bps 6 bps -2 bps
EBIT Margins 24.3% 23.1% 23.4% 23.3%
bps change (YoY) -36 bps -125 bps 35 bps -8 bps
EPS 35.5 35.7 38.6 43.4 10.3%
% change (YoY) 13.2% 0.6% 8.1% 12.5%
Source: Company, PL

Clientele of Stater

Source: Company, PL

March 29, 2019 2

 Infosys

Trends of Infosys

Constant Currency Growth (QoQ & YoY) Growth has picked up in last two quarters in BFSI

CC revenue growth QoQ CC revenue growth YoY BFSI revenues growth (QoQ)
4.5%
5.0% 14.00% 5.0%
12.00% 4.0% 3.2% 3.2%
4.0%
10.00% 3.0%
3.0% 1.2%
2.0%
8.00%
2.0% 1.0% 0.1%
6.00%
0.0%
1.0%
4.00% -1.5%
-1.0%
0.0% 2.00% -2.0%
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19

2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19
-1.0% 0.00%

Source: Company, PL Source: Company, PL

Europe Revenues $ Growth (QoQ) Growth in Europe revenues can move the needle

8.0% 6.6% Revenue contribution

6.2% RoW,
12.8%
6.0%
3.5% 3.1% India, 2.6%
4.0%
1.9%
2.0%
Europe, 24.2%
0.0% -1.1% North
America,
60.4%
-2.0%
2Q18

3Q18

4Q18

1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

Source: Company, PL Source: Company, PL

Strong Deal Pipeline to keep the revenue momentum

TCV Deal Pipeline

2500
2,029
2000
1,570
USD Mn

1500 1,207 1,116

905
1000 809 806 731 779
664 657
500

0
3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

2Q19

3Q19
1Q17

2Q17

4Q18

1Q19

Source: Company, PL

March 29, 2019 3

 Infosys

Financials
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Revenues 7,05,220 8,26,924 9,15,072 10,02,167 Non-Current Assets

YoY gr. (%) 3.0 17.3 10.7 9.5
Employee Cost 4,32,690 5,16,849 5,67,344 6,26,471 Gross Block 2,46,630 2,90,241 3,10,908 3,33,653
Gross Profit 2,72,530 3,10,075 3,47,727 3,75,697 Tangibles 2,22,050 2,46,821 2,67,488 2,90,233
Margin (%) 38.6 37.5 38.0 37.5 Intangibles 24,580 43,420 43,420 43,420
SG&A Expenses 46,850 55,509 64,055 65,257
Other Expenses - - - - Acc: Dep / Amortization 1,00,630 1,17,566 1,36,719 1,58,328
Tangibles 1,00,630 1,17,566 1,36,719 1,58,328
EBITDA 1,90,100 2,10,432 2,33,422 2,55,436 Intangibles - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 2.2 10.7 10.9 9.4
Margin (%) 27.0 25.4 25.5 25.5 Net fixed assets 1,46,000 1,72,675 1,74,189 1,75,325
Tangibles 1,21,420 1,29,255 1,30,769 1,31,905
Depreciation and Amortization 18,620 19,736 19,152 21,609 Intangibles 24,580 43,420 43,420 43,420

EBIT 1,71,480 1,90,696 2,14,269 2,33,827 Capital Work In Progress - - - -

Margin (%) 24.3 23.1 23.4 23.3 Goodwill - - - -
Non-Current Investments - - - -
Net Interest - - - - Net Deferred tax assets 7,410 6,850 6,850 6,850
Other Income 31,220 23,133 13,789 19,857 Other Non-Current Assets 1,39,900 1,28,470 1,28,470 1,28,470

Profit Before Tax 2,02,700 2,13,828 2,28,058 2,53,684 Current Assets

Margin (%) 28.7 25.9 24.9 25.3 Investments - - - -
Inventories - - - -
Total Tax 42,420 58,312 59,984 64,584 Trade receivables 1,31,420 1,52,981 1,69,288 1,85,401
Effective tax rate (%) 20.9 27.3 26.3 25.5 Cash & Bank Balance 2,62,250 2,22,151 2,01,971 2,08,615
Other Current Assets 63,890 58,350 58,350 58,350
Profit after tax 1,60,280 1,55,517 1,68,074 1,89,100 Total Assets 7,98,890 7,92,288 7,94,777 8,23,460
Minority interest - 10 - -
Share Profit from Associate - - - - Equity
Equity Share Capital 10,880 21,760 21,760 21,760
Adjusted PAT 1,45,960 1,55,507 1,68,074 1,89,100 Other Equity 6,38,350 5,66,463 5,51,934 5,58,432
YoY gr. (%) 1.7 6.5 8.1 12.5 Total Networth 6,49,230 5,88,223 5,73,694 5,80,192
Margin (%) 20.7 18.8 18.4 18.9
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - - Non-Current Liabilities
Long Term borrowings - - - -
Reported PAT 1,45,960 1,55,507 1,68,074 1,89,100 Provisions - - - -
YoY gr. (%) 1.7 6.5 8.1 12.5 Other non current liabilities 3,200 4,840 4,840 4,840
Margin (%) 20.7 18.8 18.4 18.9
Current Liabilities
Other Comprehensive Income - - - - ST Debt / Current of LT Debt - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 1,45,960 1,55,507 1,68,074 1,89,100 Trade payables 6,940 3,308 3,660 4,009
Equity Shares O/s (m) 4,347 4,347 4,348 4,348 Other current liabilities 1,34,110 1,90,587 2,07,252 2,29,089
EPS (Rs) 33.6 35.8 38.7 43.5 Total Equity & Liabilities 7,98,890 7,92,288 7,94,777 8,23,460
Source: Company Data, PL Research Source: Company Data, PL Research

March 29, 2019 4

 Infosys

Cash Flow (Rs m) Key Financial Metrics

Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E Year
Y/e Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

PBT 2,02,700 2,13,828 2,28,058 2,53,684 Per Share(Rs)

Add. Depreciation 18,620 19,736 19,152 21,609 EPS 33.6 35.8 38.7 43.5
Add. Interest - - - - CEPS 37.9 40.3 43.1 48.5
Less Financial Other Income 31,220 23,133 13,789 19,857 BVPS 149.4 135.3 132.0 133.4
Add. Other 14,320 - - - FCF 17.8 40.5 37.4 43.5
Op. profit before WC changes 2,35,640 2,33,565 2,47,211 2,75,293 DPS 34.2 35.0 42.0 42.0
Net Changes-WC (98,290) 47,023 (4,138) 1,282 Return Ratio(%)
Direct tax (56,740) (58,312) (59,984) (64,584) RoCE 25.6 30.8 36.9 40.5
Net cash from Op. activities 80,610 2,22,276 1,83,089 2,11,991 ROIC 23.3 31.0 38.8 43.2
Capital expenditures (3,180) (46,411) (20,667) (22,745) RoE 21.8 25.1 28.9 32.8
Interest / Dividend Income - - - - Balance Sheet
Others - - - - Net Debt : Equity (x) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4)
Net Cash from Invt. activities (3,180) (46,411) (20,667) (22,745) Debtor (Days) 68 68 68 68
Issue of share cap. / premium (22,260) 12,350 - - Valuation(x)
Debt changes - - - - PER 22.0 20.6 19.1 17.0
Dividend paid (1,48,538) (1,52,164) (1,82,602) (1,82,602) P/B 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.5
Interest paid - - - - P/CEPS 19.5 18.3 17.1 15.2
Others (26,732) (76,790) - - EV/EBITDA 15.5 14.2 12.9 11.7
Net cash from Fin. activities (1,97,530) (2,16,604) (1,82,602) (1,82,602) EV/Sales 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.0
Net change in cash (1,20,100) (40,739) (20,180) 6,643 Dividend Yield (%) 4.6 4.7 5.7 5.7
Free Cash Flow 77,430 1,75,865 1,62,422 1,89,246 Source: Company Data, PL Research
Source: Company Data, PL Research

Quarterly Financials (Rs m)

Y/e Mar Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19
Net Revenue 1,80,830 1,91,280 2,06,090 2,14,000
YoY gr. (%) 5.6 12.0 17.3 20.3
Raw Material Expenses 1,10,960 1,18,520 1,28,170 1,34,360
Gross Profit 69,870 72,760 77,920 79,640
Margin (%) 38.6 38.0 37.8 37.2
EBITDA 49,300 49,730 53,580 54,100
YoY gr. (%) 2.3 0.9 7.7 1.0
Margin (%) 27.3 26.0 26.0 25.3
Depreciation / Depletion 4,580 4,360 4,640 5,800
EBIT 44,720 45,370 48,940 48,300
Margin (%) 24.7 23.7 23.7 22.6
Net Interest - - - -
Other Income 5,340 4,560 7,390 3,020
Profit before Tax 50,060 49,930 56,330 51,320
Margin (%) 27.7 26.1 27.3 24.0
Total Tax 13,160 13,810 15,230 15,220
Effective tax rate (%) 26.3 27.7 27.0 29.7
Profit after Tax 36,900 36,120 41,100 36,100
Minority interest - - - 10
Share Profit from Associates - - - -
Adjusted PAT 36,900 36,120 41,100 36,090
YoY gr. (%) 2.4 3.7 10.3 (2.4)
Margin (%) 20.4 18.9 19.9 16.9
Extra Ord. Income / (Exp) - - - -
Reported PAT 36,900 36,120 41,100 36,090
YoY gr. (%) 2.4 3.7 10.3 (2.4)
Margin (%) 20.4 18.9 19.9 16.9
Other Comprehensive Income - - - -
Total Comprehensive Income 36,900 36,120 41,100 36,090
Avg. Shares O/s (m) 4,347 4,351 4,352 4,353
EPS (Rs) 8.5 8.3 9.4 8.3
Source: Company Data, PL Research

March 29, 2019 5

 Infosys

Price Chart Recommendation History

(Rs)
No. Date Rating TP (Rs.) Share Price (Rs.)
775
1 13-Apr-18 BUY 1,230 1,169

690 2 13-Apr-18 BUY 1,220 1,169

3 10-Jul-18 BUY 1,400 1,354
606
4 13-Jul-18 BUY 1,430 1,317
521 5 05-Oct-18 BUY 790 707
6 16-Oct-18 BUY 790 695
437
Sep - 16

Sep - 17

Sep - 18
Mar - 16

Mar - 17

Mar - 18

Mar - 19
7 07-Jan-19 BUY 790 672
8 14-Jan-19 BUY 810 684

Analyst Coverage Universe

Sr. No. CompanyName Rating TP (Rs) Share Price (Rs)
1 Cyient BUY 810 609
2 HCL Technologies Accumulate 1,170 988
3 Hexaware Technologies Accumulate 384 323
4 Infosys BUY 810 684
5 L&T Technology Services Accumulate 1,780 1,693
6 Mindtree Hold 887 943
7 Mphasis Accumulate 1,260 921
8 NIIT Technologies BUY 1,460 1,141
9 Persistent Systems Accumulate 725 565
10 Redington (India) BUY 140 86
11 Sonata Software BUY 410 296
12 Tata Consultancy Services Accumulate 2,275 1,889
13 TeamLease Services Hold 2,740 2,884
14 Tech Mahindra BUY 915 751
15 Wipro Accumulate 375 346
16 Zensar Technologies BUY 278 222

PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature (Absolute Performance)

Buy : > 15%
Accumulate : 5% to 15%
Hold : +5% to -5%
Reduce : -5% to -15%
Sell : < -15%
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly

March 29, 2019 6

 Infosys

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Date: 2019.03.29 14:07:54 +05'30'