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ANTHROPOLOGY Copyright © 2018


The Authors, some
Current evidence allows multiple models for the rights reserved;
exclusive licensee
peopling of the Americas American Association
for the Advancement
of Science. No claim to
Ben A. Potter1*, James F. Baichtal2, Alwynne B. Beaudoin3, Lars Fehren-Schmitz4, original U.S. Government
C. Vance Haynes5, Vance T. Holliday5, Charles E. Holmes1, John W. Ives6, Robert L. Kelly7, Works. Distributed
Bastien Llamas8, Ripan S. Malhi9, D. Shane Miller10, David Reich11,12,13, Joshua D. Reuther1,14, under a Creative
Stephan Schiffels15, Todd A. Surovell7 Commons Attribution
NonCommercial
Some recent academic and popular literature implies that the problem of the colonization of the Americas has License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
been largely resolved in favor of one specific model: a Pacific coastal migration, dependent on high marine pro-
ductivity, from the Bering Strait to South America, thousands of years before Clovis, the earliest widespread cul-
tural manifestation south of the glacial ice. Speculations on maritime adaptations and typological links (stemmed
points) across thousands of kilometers have also been advanced. A review of the current genetic, archeological,
and paleoecological evidence indicates that ancestral Native American population expansion occurred after
16,000 years ago, consistent with the archeological record, particularly with the earliest securely dated sites after

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~15,000 years ago. These data are largely consistent with either an inland (ice-free corridor) or Pacific coastal
routes (or both), but neither can be rejected at present. Systematic archeological and paleoecological investiga-
tions, informed by geomorphology, are required to test each hypothesis.

INTRODUCTION More nuanced consideration of the proposed alternatives can also


Investigation of the peopling of the Americas has generated decades be found (10–12). Here, we evaluate the claims made in (1) and
of scholarly studies, increasingly illuminated by paleoecological and elsewhere with respect to the current genetic, archeological, and
particularly paleogenetic research. There are currently several models paleoecological data and identify model constraints. We also sug-
of the peopling process differing with respect to timing, routes, and gest avenues of further research to refine models of the peopling of
affiliation with modern (and ancient) populations in Asia and the the Americas. Due to multiple dating techniques presented in this
Americas (Fig. 1). One perspective that has become prominent in paper, we use years ago for calibrated radiocarbon dates, OSL and
the last decade is of an early entry (~25,000 to 15,000 years ago) into cosmogenic dates, and genetic age estimates. All of these are rough-
the Americas via a Pacific coastal migration. This perspective fur- ly comparable.
ther implies ecological adaptations (for example, the kelp highway
hypothesis) and, more recently, typological relationships (stemmed
points) (1–5). We believe that this perspective, although commonly GENETIC AND ARCHEOLOGICAL CONGRUENCE
disseminated in the popular press (6–8), is a prematurely narrow Genetic studies provide independent information on the timing and
interpretation of current evidence, which yields far less certainty. nature of Native American ancestral divergence from northeast Asian
Some proponents (1) also assert that there is near-complete agree- populations, genetic isolation, and expansion into the Americas.
ment among archeologists on these issues, but the most recent relevant The most recent comprehensive ancient mitogenomic analysis (13)
survey (9) shows that archeologists remain divided, with substan- indicates that Native American ancestors diverged from Siberian
tial numbers thinking migrants used both interior and coastal routes, populations between 24,900 and 18,400 years ago with population
as well as strong skepticism for several proposed pre-Clovis sites. expansion associated with female lineage diversification sometime
between ~16,000 to 13,000 years ago. These results are consistent
with a large-scale genomic study based on mostly modern Native
1
Department of Anthropology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, American and Siberian data (14). We should be careful to insist on
USA. 2Tongass National Forest, U.S. Forest Service, Thorne Bay, AK 99919, USA. confidence intervals rather than relying on mean or median esti-
3
Royal Alberta Museum, Edmonton, Alberta T5J 0G2, Canada. 4UCSC Paleogenomics
Lab, Department of Anthropology, University of California at Santa Cruz, Santa
mates, because the former more accurately reflect the precision of
Cruz, CA 95064, USA. 5School of Anthropology and Department of Geosciences, the data. This approach also results in consistency with a wider range
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA. 6Institute of Prairie Archaeology, Uni- of colonization models rather than narrowly limiting the options.
versity of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3, Canada. 7Department of Anthropology, Models of diversification should encompass migration from the
University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA. 8Australian Centre for Ancient
DNA, Environment Institute, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, geographic location of the ancestral Native American population,
Adelaide, South Australia, Australia. 9Department of Anthropology and Carl R. Woese which is currently unknown, but probably includes expansion into
Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. 10Department northeastern Siberia and Beringia. As a possible working hypothe-
of Anthropology and Middle Eastern Cultures, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS
39759, USA. 11Department of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Bos­ton, MA 02115, USA.
sis, if Native American ancestors were situated in southern Siberia
12
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA. 20,000 years ago, then the post–16,000-year expansion must include
13
Broad Institute of Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard, Cambridge, migration into northeast Asia.
MA 02142, USA. 14Archaeology Department, University of Alaska Museum of the Genetic analyses dependent on data from modern populations do
North, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA. 15Department of Archaeogenetics, Max Planck
Institute for the Science of Human History, Jena 07745, Germany. not bear directly on the geographic locations of the divergence events
*Corresponding author. Email: bapotter@alaska.edu (13). For instance, the data used to generate the Beringian Incubation

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Archeological sites, >13 ka

Archeological sites, 13–10 ka

Geological/biological samples,
15.7 – 13.3 ka, indicating ice-free
and/or vegetated conditions
Glacial ice limits
(55)
13.4 ka
14.0 ka
15.0 ka

Glacial ice
at 14.8 ka
Archeological sites,
(48)
post 8 ka

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Fig. 1. Northwest North America with archeological sites older than 10,000 calibrated years before the present (Supplementary Materials) and proposed colo-
nization routes: IFC and NPC. Glacial ice extent (white) from (48), and archeological site and geological sample locations summarized in (12, 78). Laurentide Ice Sheet
limits (dotted lines) from (55). ka, thousand years; IFC, ice-free corridor; NPC, North Pacific coast.

Model only require that Native American ancestors were geographi- The locations of ancestral Native Americans between ~20,000 and
cally isolated from wherever the East Asian/Siberian ancestors in- 15,000 years ago remain unknown, but two scenarios have been
habited during the time of isolation (15). The genetic data do not proposed (19). Scenario 1 posits that the split of Ancient Beringians
require that this isolation occurred in central or eastern Beringia— and other Native Americans occurred in northeast Asia/Siberia,
it could range across a vast area, from Cis-Baikal to Hokkaido. So while scenario 2 posits that this split occurred in eastern Beringia
far, complete nuclear genomes from ancient samples produced in (Alaska). Current archeological and paleoecological data support
recent years (16–18) are not able either to substantially narrow the scenario 1. There is no secure evidence of ~20,000-year-old American
divergence estimate or to clarify spatial routes of the initial peopling. sites, while there is abundant evidence of human occupation in
A recent analysis of the 11,500-year-old Upward Sun River 1 ge- northeast Asia (for example, southern Siberia, Amur basin, Primor’ye,
nome (19) suggests that Native Americans descend from a single and Japanese archipelago) (fig. S1) (23). The LGM is regionally
population that separated from East Asians by 26,100 to 23,900 characterized by very cold and arid conditions with evidence for
years ago, with two deep branches: an Ancient Beringian popula- depopulation of north Asia and no evidence throughout Eurasia for
tion that split off ~22,000 to 18,000 years ago and a second branch northward expansions of humans (24, 25). Previous genetic models
that split into northern and southern lineages ~17,500 to 14,600 of Native American demography indicate a bottleneck during this
years ago (19). Earlier gene flow between ancestral Native Americans period, with expansion only after 16,000 to 13,000 years ago (13, 26).
and Ancient North Eurasians (ANEs) (represented by Mal’ta and We observe a clear pattern of human expansion from Siberia to
Afontova individuals) between ~25,000 and 20,000 years ago strongly Beringia around 16,000 to 14,000 years (12) and the first unequivocal
suggests geographic proximity of these groups, somewhere in and widespread occupations south of glacial ice in the Americas after
southern Siberia, where all ANE individuals have been located (see 13,500 years ago, associated with Clovis and Fishtail complex tech-
fig. S1 for localities and regions mentioned in the text). The record nologies (27–29). We note that both point types are continent-­wide
of human remains in northeast Asia is very sparse, but they have in North and South America, respectively. They are the only point
been recovered at Yana RHS, dating to ~27,000 years ago (20). Un- types with such broad distributions and are consistent with coloniz-
fortunately, no ancient DNA analysis has yet been published, but ing processes (30–32), although they might also represent commu-
Yana’s location at the extreme western edge of Beringia will make it nication of ideas among low-density early populations.
difficult to draw firm conclusions about populations present in the We have firmer geographic constraints on these populations af-
rest of western, central, and eastern Beringia, for example, for 1500 ter about 12,600 years ago. Ancient Beringians, associated with the
to 2000 km to the southern Beringian coasts or 2500 km to Alaska. Denali complex/Paleoarctic tradition, were in Alaska and adjacent
The lack of an unequivocal human presence in the entire region areas between 12,500 and 6000 years ago (19). Although the northern
during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) between the Yana occu- lineage (including Na-Dene, Algonquian, Salish, Tsimshian, and
pation (during a warm period) and the clear expansion of Diuktai Haida) appears constrained to northern North America (33), the
Culture (Late Upper Paleolithic) populations moving from south to southern lineage directly links with Clovis (Anzick) (16–18). How-
north after 16,000 years ago suggests a temporary expansion of ever, we have no direct genetic evidence arising from populations
Middle Upper Paleolithic populations followed by later contraction associated with pre-Clovis sites linking them with later Native
during the LGM followed by expansion after the onset of deglaciation Americans. Thus, we should be careful to distinguish potential failed
(21, 22). migrations versus the direct ancestors of Clovis and later Paleoindians.

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We also note that pre-Clovis sites continue to vary in site integrity, (Stratum IX) (39). Hunter Island (40) contains materials that may
that is, clear associations of secure dates and unambiguous cultural date to ~13,500 years ago or to the Younger Dryas (both radiocarbon
materials. There appear to be relatively few technological or adap- dates come from the same layer and do not overlap). Similarly,
tive connections among the proposed pre-Clovis sites, or with (lat- Kildit Narrows contains scattered materials from a charcoal-rich
er) unequivocal Paleoindian complexes, represented by hundreds of layer with three nonoverlapping associated dates of ~13,600, 12,800,
sites and thousands of artifacts across the Americas (34, 35). How- and 10,700 years ago (40). In the latter two cases, the association of
ever, analyses by (36) have shown that currently dated Clovis sites the cultural materials and dates is unclear.
represent a sample that came from a population of sites that date to Throughout most (~2000 km) of the hypothetical NPC route,
a time span covering 1070 to 835 years. This suggests that it is pos- from Yakutat Bay to the Aleutians, the earliest human occupations
sible that some pre-Clovis sites after ~15,000 years ago may repre- post-date 8000 years ago (more than 6000 years after the earliest
sent Clovis ancestors or are Clovis sites that lack diagnostic artifact interior Beringian occupations), long after shorelines stabilized,
types. and using technology derived from earlier interior traditions
(Fig. 1) (41, 42). Furthermore, the Siberian Diuktai Culture (~18,000
to 12,000 years ago) is terrestrial, while there is no evidence for
POTENTIAL MIGRATION ROUTES coastal or maritime economies along the northwest Pacific coast
We review here issues with both North Pacific coast (NPC) and ice- from the Kuriles, Kamchatka, Chukotka, or the Okhotsk Sea coast
free corridor (IFC) routes of colonization of mid-continental North until the middle Holocene (43). East Beringian obsidian distribu-
America (Fig. 1). We note that an NPC route could originate along tion patterns show long-distance east-west movement of obsidian

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southern Beringia or from interior Beringia. The IFC route has sev- from interior sources between 14,000 and 13,000 years ago, while
eral potential branches funneling in from the north. These include coastal sources were only used 4900 to 2300 years after the earliest
a route west of the Mackenzie River between the northern sections interior use, and no coastal obsidian has been found substantially
of the Laurentide and Cordilleran Ice Sheets, or through the Liard inland (12). If Paleoindian ancestors moved along the southern
and Peace River areas, which also deglaciated early (37). coastal edge of Beringia, we would expect earlier sites in adjacent
A coastal colonization route remains a viable hypothesis; however, Pacific drainages (for example, Copper and Susitna rivers) and later
several issues relating to the proposed coastal migration have been occupations in the deep interior (for example, Tanana and Yukon
typically ignored (12). Contrary to commonly asserted claims, the rivers). Extant data show the earliest occupations along the Tanana
entire late Pleistocene coast was not submerged due to rising sea River (~14,200 years ago), later expansion of related technologies
levels. A comprehensive meta-analysis (38) reviewing paleoecoastal into the Pacific drainages (~12,000 years ago), and much later ex-
geomorphology from Puget Sound to the Alaska Peninsula indicated pansion to the coast (~8000 years ago). All these patterns are incon-
that more than half of the northwest Pacific coastal regions retained sistent with an initial coastal migration along the southern edge of
preserved pre-Clovis–aged shorelines (Fig. 2). Surveys in these re- Beringia before 16,000 years ago (12).
gions have so far failed to discover sites securely dated to older than More research is required to assess resource bases along the NPC
~12,600 years ago (1600 years later than the earliest unequivocal route. Some coastal refugia have been identified in the southern
sites in interior Beringia), contradicting common assertions of an part of the coastal route [for example, (44, 45)], whereas the record
early coastal migration (12). A few potential earlier sites that have is sparse to the north, including the Alexander Archipelago, southern
been reported recently, including Triquet Island, remain unreported coastal Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and the Aleutians [see review
in peer-reviewed sources. Calvert Island cultural materials includ- in (12)]. Anadromous fish could have been a stable resource for hu-
ing human footprints are associated with bracketing ages of be- mans, but the earliest evidence of salmon fishing is in interior Alaska
tween 13,300 and 12,700 years ago (Stratum X) and 12,650 years ago (46, 47). Other complications to a coastal route include the potential

14-0
14.5-0
12-0 6-0 17-0 10-0
17-0 15-13 + 5-0 14.1-0
14.5-0
11.0-0
15-0
13.5-0
10.1-0 15-0 15-11.5 + 5-0
15.5-13.0 + 6-0
10.5-0 14 + 4-0
17-0
16-14 + 8-0 16-12 + 4-0
Pre-Clovis coasts below modern sea level (submerged) 4-0
Pre-Clovis coasts above modern sea level

7-0

Fig. 2. Sea-level curves by region and periods above modern sea level (in thousands of calibrated years before the present) (that is, pre-Clovis occupations
would be potentially accessible if they are extant), adapted from data in (38, 79).

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presence of sea ice (pack and drift), recurrent volcanism, and potential biological materials] and leaving its geological framework in a fluid
reduction in kelp richness and abundance in periglacial environ- state of understanding. Timing of the LGM and subsequent degla-
ments (12). The ecological viability of large stretches of the coastal cial sequences vary considerably in northern and southern corridor
route has not been fully evaluated yet, and more work needs to be regions (54). Currently evolving geoarcheological and paleo­
done before we can identify the time periods when this region could ecological studies of interior routes indicate that IFC deglaciation
support human populations from the Aleutian area to Puget Sound. initiated by 19,000 years ago. A series of 76 10Be surface exposure
Alternatively, another potential entry to the NPC from southwestern cosmogenic nuclide ages reveal that intermediate and high eleva-
Yukon is constrained by the deglaciation of the White Pass, estimated tion sites in the Peace River Corridor bottleneck were ice-free be-
between 13,500 and 13,000 years ago (48), likely too late to serve as tween 15,000 and 14,000 years ago, while 22 luminescence dates on
a route for Paleoindian ancestors. eolian sand indicate that a broad subaerially exposed landscape was
The enigmatic record at Bluefish Cave raises the possibility of present by at least ~15,000 years ago (and possibly earlier) and that
population pulses into eastern Beringia as early as 24,000 years ago glacial lakes had already substantially drained (Fig. 3) (37, 55–57).
(49). We note that if there was successful settlement in the LGM, we Figure 1 illustrates the locations of these key late Pleistocene
should see more abundant evidence of sites in the succeeding mil- (and pre-Clovis) geological and paleoecological samples. At least
lennia, which we do not. In contrast, a substantial continuous re- two routes into the Peace River Corridor have been proposed: one
cord begins ~14,200 years ago at Swan Point CZ4b with multiple along the east side of the Mackenzie Mountains (solid red line
hearth features and overlapping dates on hearth charcoal and asso- in Fig. 1), and the other to the west of the Mackenzie Mountains
ciated fauna, which represents an East Beringian branch of the geo- through the Yukon Plateau and Pelly River valley to the Liard River

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graphically extensive Siberian Diuktai Culture (50). East Beringian (dotted red line in Fig. 1) (58).
tradition populations around 15,000 to 14,000 years ago would be Moreover, 14C dates on taiga vole indicate vegetated conditions
adapted to expanding habitat in the northern funnels of the IFC. in some areas of the bottleneck by at least 14,870 years ago (59), and
The southern funnel of the IFC had a detectable human presence by a poplar fragment from Boone Lake in the uplands of northwestern
13,300 years ago (Fig. 1), where a camel and horses were butchered Alberta (60) indicates the presence of trees by at least 13,500 years ago.
in an earliest Clovis or pre-Clovis time range in Alberta’s St. Mary These data suggest a vegetated Corridor well before minimum age
Reservoir (51–53). estimates of ecological viability derived from the presence of bison
Any evaluation of the IFC must rest on a secure geological foun- and horse at 13,100 years ago (61, 62) and plant macrofossils and
dation, involving a vast region affected by intense glacial and parag- environmental DNA at Charlie Lake at 12,600 years ago (63) (Fig. 3).
lacial dynamics that challenge geologists and paleoecologists. The Beyond the IFC region, other researchers have identified alternative
IFC region has received episodic attention over the last several inland routes through unglaciated Cordilleran areas (64–66), where
decades. There is currently, however, an almost unprecedented resources such as sheep may have persisted through the LGM (67).
level of earth science interest in the central portion of the IFC, Collectively, these data indicate that the Corridor and adjacent in-
applying methods previously unavailable [from mapping using terior areas could have emerged as a potential route for ancestral
light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data to the increased use of Native Americans as early as 15,000 to 14,000 years ago, and that
luminescence and cosmogenic nuclide dating techniques on non- movements in either direction along the entire length of the Corridor

Other events

Dating method
OSL
IRSL
14
C

Biological “viability”
minima according to (63)
Bison dispersal minima (61)
Earliest Clovis

Swan Point
Paisley Cave Demic
Page-Ladson expansion
Monte Verde

Fig. 3. Chronology of the central IFC. OSL and IRSL dates indicate minima ages of deglaciation and pro-glacial lake drainage (55), and calibrated 14C dates indicate
minima dates for fauna and vegetation (12, 35, 61, 63, 80–82). Demic expansion estimates of Native American ancestors from (13). All dates are shown with 1 SD.

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were feasible well before Clovis times (12, 68). Both pathways, inte- pathways. Current genetic data provide a relatively wide window of
rior and coastal, allow viable hypotheses that need not be mutually constraints for location of the genetic isolation of Native American
exclusive and should be further tested. ancestors, and later expansion from Siberia into the Americas (and
possibly northeast Asia) around 16,000 to 13,500 years ago. As geneti-
cists and archeologists and indigenous communities work together
STEMMED POINTS AS CULTURAL DIAGNOSTICS in a respectful and mutually beneficial manner, the opportunities to
Several authors (1, 3) have suggested that a variety of stemmed analyze additional human remains to infer population history in the
points in different contexts represent a coastal expansion before Americas grow. In parallel, systematic paleogenetic analyses of se-
16,000 years ago. This hypothesis is at a nascent stage, rather than curely dated sediments (77) could potentially directly reveal human
[as expressed in (1)] the strongest hypothesis on offer. Stemming is presence.
a widespread form of haft design innovated numerous times across Current archeological data fit with terrestrial or coastal migrations
multiple continents and is thus not an appropriate derived character (or both) that probably occurred well after the LGM, most probably
on which to base a hypothesis of cultural affiliation. No detailed tech- after 16,000 years ago and before the widespread Paleoindian occu-
nological analysis has established empirical validity to connect these pations around 13,500 years ago. This configuration of the empirical
disparate assemblages. Proponents have noted (7) that stemmed points, evidence explains the absence of consensus among archeologists and
crescents, and shell middens date between 12,200 and 11,400 years ago other scientists regarding both routes and timing of the peopling of
before the present (cal yr B.P.), about 1000 to 2000 years after wide- the Americas, and should prompt us to continue systematic, geomor-
spread Beringian and Clovis sites. Terrestrially oriented subsistence phologically targeted investigations along both pathways.

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practices are evident across North America several centuries before
the appearance of evidence for coastal adaptations. All the well-dated SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
early coastal sites from North America are younger than the earliest Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/
Clovis sites. Two early near-coastal sites in South America, Monte content/full/4/8/eaat5473/DC1
Verde and Huaca Prieta (69, 70), have few technological connections Table S1. Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene components illustrated in Fig. 1.
Fig. S1. Locations mentioned in the text.
with later Paleoindian groups, including the Western Stemmed tra-
References (83–141)
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Current evidence allows multiple models for the peopling of the Americas
Ben A. Potter, James F. Baichtal, Alwynne B. Beaudoin, Lars Fehren-Schmitz, C. Vance Haynes, Vance T. Holliday, Charles
E. Holmes, John W. Ives, Robert L. Kelly, Bastien Llamas, Ripan S. Malhi, D. Shane Miller, David Reich, Joshua D. Reuther,
Stephan Schiffels and Todd A. Surovell

Sci Adv 4 (8), eaat5473.


DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat5473

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