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The climate of the future: clues from three
million years ago
In the eighteenth century, James Hutton came up with a theory that
revolutionized the science of geology, ‘The present is a key to the past’. But
could the past also be a guide to our future? The world three million years
ago was warmer than present. What might it tell us about global climate
change in the near future?
James Hutton is generally regarded as the father of record to help us predict what our climate and
Alan Haywood and
modern geology. In the eighteenth century he came environment might be like in the future? One of the
Mark Williams up with a theory that revolutionized the science of best places to look is the world of the mid-Pliocene,
British Antarctic Survey, geology: uniformitarianism, expressed by Charles three million years ago. The mid-Pliocene is the last
Geological Sciences Lyell as ‘The present is a key to the past’. This has time in geological history when our planet’s climate
Division, High Cross, enabled generations of geologists to interpret was significantly warmer, for a prolonged period,
Madingley Road, information gleaned from rocks and sediments by than it is today. So what was the mid Pliocene world
Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK. reference to examples existing in the modern like?
MWILLI@bas.ac.uk environment. Although this remains a corner stone
of geology, could the past also be a guide to our
A window on the Pliocene world
future? Certainly this would not surprise an
historian; consider the old saying ‘history always Although the geography of our planet looked very
repeats itself’. Nonetheless, in geology it is an idea similar to that of today three million years ago, the
that is only now being fully explored. The driving world was undergoing momentous changes
force behind this new adventure is the changing everywhere, from the Americas to Tibet. At about
climate of our planet and our desire to understand, this time, animals from South America first started to
predict and mitigate the effects of future climate colonize North America, indicating that the Isthmus
change. of Panama had finally risen above sea level. Along
According to the latest report produced by the this trans-continental highway of migration, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, our armadillo was amongst the animals that migrated
planet is running a temperature. Within the next north, whilst dogs, cats, bears and many other
150 to 350 years, Earth will warm by an extent not animals headed south. In Africa, the spread of
seen for millions of years. This warming is a result of Savannah vegetation and retreat of forest habitats
the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon may have encouraged our primate ancestors to come
dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) into the down from the trees, colonizing the open plains of the
atmosphere. Rapid climate change has become the rift valleys of east Africa and undergoing an
disaster scenario for the twenty-first century. Be it evolutionary radiation into a number of ‘graceful’
cities deluged by giant waves, paradise islands and ‘robust’ australopithecines. Their fossil remains
sinking into the oceans, or the corals of the Great are found in modern Ethiopia and Tanzania. In Asia,
Barrier Reef heated-up to extinction, everyone is the continued collision of India with the Eurasian
aware that climate change can have a dramatic effect land mass pushed the Himalayas still higher,
on the world we live in. In the recent Hollywood intensifying the Asian monsoon. From the Americas,
movie The Day After Tomorrow, New York was frozen ancestral horses about the size of ponies migrated
solid as the climate of the Northern Hemisphere took west along the Aleutian archipelago into Asia and
a dramatic turn for the worse. But what evidence do Europe. In the Antarctic, the ice sheets and glaciers
we have for climate change in the past, and how can were not static, but fluctuated in size, influencing the
we use the information stored in the geological global climate and sea level. In the oceans too, there
138 © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Geology Today, Vol. 21, No. 4, July–August 2005
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Making models of the Pliocene world before the computer simulation can be started, the
model needs to be set up for the Pliocene world. This
The pattern of sea surface temperatures produced by
is where all the knowledge about what the world was
the alkenones is not like the pattern produced by the
like during the Pliocene from rocks and fossils
planktonic foraminifera. It is not characteristic of a
becomes invaluable. The model set-up involves
sea temperature pattern produced by enhanced ocean
reconfiguring the positions of the continents to
heat transport or thermohaline circulation, which
compensate for continental drift, reconfiguring the
would redistribute heat away from the tropics to mid
height of the land, prescribing carbon dioxide levels
to higher latitudes. Instead, the pattern is similar to
and initializing the oceans in a Pliocene state.
that which might be expected as a result of higher
The results from the model indicate that three
concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which
million years ago global annual average
would act to warm the oceans globally, and not just
temperatures were up to 3 °C warmer than today.
at mid to high latitudes. The possibility of higher
This had major effects on regional climates. For
levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide is supported by
example, in Western Europe the UK climate was
evidence from fossil leaves. This is important to the
warmer during winter and summer (Fig. 9), but
current debate over global climate change, and how
there was also more rainfall (Fig. 10). Warming
far this is influenced by the emission of greenhouse
occurs almost everywhere over the planet three
gases. The best way to analyze all of the data from the
million years ago, but is most intense at high
fossils and alkenones is to build climate models that
latitudes. Why is this so? The answer can be found by
can simulate past climate change. In an effort to
examining the link between ice and climate. The ice-
understand why our world was warmer at this time,
sheets of Greenland and Antarctica act as gigantic
scientists from the British Antarctic Survey, in
mirrors reflecting back part of the energy received by
collaboration with the University of Bristol, took the
the Earth from the sun. Antarctica alone acts as a
same model that the UK Meteorological Office uses to
mirror that is over one-and-a-half times the size of the
produce its daily weather forecasts and used it to
USA. But, during the Pliocene, the Greenland ice-
generate estimates of what our planet’s climate was
sheet did not exist and the Antarctic ice-sheet may
like three million years ago.
have been reduced in size by one-third. So, the
The model runs on very fast supercomputers that
reflecting mirrors of the Earth were smaller than they
have the processing power of hundreds of desktop
are today, which allowed more of the sun’s energy to
PCs. These powerful computers are needed to perform
be retained, and hence global temperatures were
the trillions of calculations required to simulate what
warmer.
the Pliocene climate was like. The model divides the
What does the model say about the role of carbon
Earth up into a series of grid boxes. In the atmosphere
dioxide? Although smaller ice-sheets were important,
these grid boxes are approximately 200 km wide by
increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
400 km long. The size of individual grid boxes in the
made a significant contribution towards the warmth
oceans is even smaller. Within each of these grid
of that time, particularly at the tropics and low
boxes variables important for the prediction of
latitudes.
climate are calculated, based upon the laws of
So what does the model say about the role of
thermodynamics and Newton’s laws of motion.
ocean currents and what sea surface temperatures
Then, at progressive time steps of the model, the
were like? The model results indicate that the oceans
reaction between the individual grid boxes is
did not transfer significantly more heat away from
calculated. Very quickly millions of calculations are
the tropics to the high latitudes during the Pliocene.
occurring at every time step of the model. However,
Furthermore, the model predictions of sea surface
142 © Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Geology Today, Vol. 21, No. 4, July–August 2005
FEATURE
temperatures more closely match those produced potential to dramatically change our appreciation of
using alkenone estimates than those derived from the the mid-Pliocene world, what made it warm and
planktonic foraminifera. what significance it has for our future.
What might the mid-Pliocene tell us about Suggestions for further reading
the future? Big, G.R. 1996. The Oceans and Climate. Cambridge
Studying warm climates of the past and identifying University Press, Cambridge.
model/data inconsistencies provides a tough test for Dowsett, H.J., Barron, J.A., Poore, R.Z., Thompson,
the primary tool currently used to study future R.S., Cronin, T.M., Ishman, S.E. & Willard, D.A.
climate change, namely global climate models. Our 1999. Middle Pliocene Palaeoenvironmental
results suggest that mid-Pliocene warming was Reconstruction: PRISM2. U.S. Geological Survey
caused by more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Open File Report, 99-535. (available at: http://
combined with climate feedbacks associated with pubs.usgs.giv/openfile/of99-535/)
smaller ice-sheets. Since the pattern of sea Haug, G.H. & Tiedemann, R. 1998. Effect of the
temperature change reconstructed from alkenones, Isthmus of Panama on Atlantic Ocean
and predicted by our climate model, is not consistent thermohaline circulation. Nature, v.393, pp.673–
with that produced through changes in ocean 676.
circulation/ocean heat transport, we also conclude Haywood, A.M., Valdes, P.J., Sellwood, B.W., Kaplan,
that there was no major change in thermohaline J.O. & Dowsett, H.J. 2001. Modelling Middle
circulation at that time. This gives us more Pliocene warm climates of the USA. Palaeontologia
confidence in the stability of modern ocean Electronica, v.4, art.5. (available at: http://palaeo-
circulation in the face of global warming, and electronica.org/2001_1/climate/issue1_01.htm)
suggests that the scenario of climatic catastrophe Haywood, A.M. & Valdes, P.J. 2004. Modelling
pictured in the film The Day After Tomorrow is, middle Pliocene warmth: contribution of
fortunately for us, an unlikely one. atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Earth and
The other lesson to learn from the mid-Pliocene is Planetary Science Letters, v.218, pp.363–377.
that increased carbon dioxide levels in the Zachos, J.C., M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas & K.
atmosphere can have a dramatic effect on global Billups. 2001. Trends, rhythms, and aberrations
temperatures and ice-volumes. Indeed, the analogue in global climate 65 Ma to present. Science, v.292,
of the Pliocene suggests that if carbon dioxide pp.686–693.
concentrations remain at their current levels, or
increase further, then we can expect to see significant
Web links
reductions in global ice volume and higher sea levels.
Considering the proportion of the world’s population Climate change, the global environment and fossils:
who live adjacent to the coast this is a serious threat. British Antarctic Survey: http://www.antarctica.
Some island nations might disappear. ac.uk
The concept of studying the past as a guide to our Bristol University ‘Bridge Group’: http://www.
future is relatively new. Therefore, we should ggy.bris.ac.uk/research/bridge
continue to question whether it is possible that an as- Palaeontologica electronica: http://palaeo-electronica.
yet unknown climate feedback or forcing has the org
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