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CROUCHING TIGER
HIDDEN DRAGON
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Introduction
One heartening feature of the evolution of the world economy during the last two to three
decades has been the outstanding economic success of China and India± two of the world¶s
most populous and hitherto extremely poor countries. Starting out with the world¶s largest
absolute numbers of people living in poverty, in narrow economic terms the two countries
have achieved impressive growth.
China has undoubtedly been the fastest growing country in the world over the last quarter of
a century, achieving historically unprecedented, almost double-digit, growth rates since1980.
Similarly, although not as fast as China, India¶s economic growth has nevertheless also been
one of the highest in the world since 1980, its per capita growth rate tripling between 1950-80
and 1980-2005 (Kelkar, 2005). India was among the ten fastest.
China and India have both made remarkable progress since about 1980, when each embarked
on economic reform, though under wholly different circumstances. In China, the end of the
1970s marked the emergence of a pragmatic, outward-oriented economic and political regime
under the aegis of the communist party. It was closely associated with the rise within the
party of Deng Xiao Ping and his open door policy. Over the following 20 years, China¶s

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economic growt averaged nearl 10 percent taking into account a recent upward revi ion of
China¶s GDP statistics.
In India, the 1980s marked a different kind of turning point as the country began to undertake
deregulation of internal investment activity and regional decentralization of economic
decision-making.4 This policy shift helped raise the rate of growth from the so-called ³Hindu
rate´ of 1.5 percent annual growth of GDP per capita to about 4 percent.This acceleration in
economic growth continued into the 1990s and the data suggests that is has increased further
during the new century and, for the last three years, the annual GDP growth rate has averaged
nearly 8 per cent ± a rate never achieved before in India.
There are two important points to note about India¶s and China¶s overall economic
development that relate to the world economy. First, China has emerged as the second
largest economy in the world after the US, having overtaken Japan. While the Indian
economy is not quite as large, serious students of the subject suggest that India is likely to
grow faster than China over the next twenty to thirty years and to have overtaken it by 2050
.This claim is based on a number of assumptions, one of the more important of which is that
India is thought to have a higher level of ³institutional development´ than China. The second
point is that, notwithstanding this projected fast economic growth, even in the year 2030
China¶s GDP per capita in terms of constant purchasing power parity will still be a fourth of
that of the US, and the corresponding figure for India will be less than one seventh. In
considering the future evolution of the world economy, this point deserves proper
consideration.
We will continue to see both these economic powerhouses develop and reform as their
respective models or stages of growth evolve as they create wealth and see their
demographics change. The drive and dynamism both these economies provide to the world
has and will become ever more important as they continue to develop and engage more
intricately with the global economy.
This report provides some terrific insights into that evolution and the longer-term
comparative factors driving the success of both economies. We now increasingly have a
genuine double act from China and India in terms of dynamic economic growth engines
willing and enthusiastic to engage with the global economy. This can only be beneficial for
the continued growth and stability of the region and the world economy as a whole.

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The sharp increase in average duty rates in 2000 ± 01 reflects th imposition of tariff on many agricultural
commodities in anticipation of the removal of quantitative restrictions. Since these items were protected by
quantitative restrictions in the mid-1990s, the combined protection provided by tariffs and quantitative
restrictions was probably higher in the mid-1990s.

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The basic principle of China¶s land reform Land reform legislation was launched in
launched in 1949 was³to confiscate the land !*+!cwith the objectives of increasing
of the landlord class and to redistribute it to agricultural production and paving the way
peasants having insufficient or no land´, The for industrialization. In contrast to China¶s
reform led to little immediate improvement forceful policy, the Indian policy was carried
in China¶s agriculture because of the shortage out under the framework of parliamentary

c
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of farm implements, loan credits, livestock, democracy. India¶s land reform,


fertilizer, and seeds.c consequently, did not significantly affect the
structure of land ownership in the country
due to the fact that, on the whole, ³the
abolition of intermediaries removed only the
upper layers of the feudal hierarchy in rural
India´c
When the Chinese launched their First Five Unlike cChinese collectivization
Year Plan in 1953, they also adopted the movement, cooperatives in India took a
Soviet style of collectivization. The initial different approach to peasants in two ways:
target was to organize 20 percent of farm ua) the system was voluntary and ub) it gave
households into ³Elementary full recognition to peasants¶ property rights.
Cooperatives´by 1957 with the objective of By 1965, 5,000 cooperative farming societies
enlarging the scale of farms and better were active in India with an average of 20
mobilizing the rural population. Within a members and 45 hectares per farm.
year, 670,000 cooperatives were formed with Participating peasants managed and
14.2 percent of the total peasant households cultivated the land jointly; the profits after
enrolled.c deducting wages and allotments to reserves,
were divided in proportion to the wages
earned by each peasant. The original purpose
of the cooperatives was to achieve large-scale
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It is easier to tackle the second model. àround 1990, India¶s services sector had a share in
total GDP similar to that of other countries in an equivalent income level. Since then, it has
risen at an above average pace and the share in 2005 was higher than the norm for lower
income countries but not too far above this norm. This growth has been spearheaded by
business services and software and Indian firms now rank among the largest in the world. às
a share of the services sector GDP as a whole, IT services account for 6 percent and in 2004±
2005, and had revenues of $30 billion u³Now for the Hard Part´ 2006). Exports reached $12
billion in 2003±2004. Both turnover and exports have risen swiftly since 2000, averaging 30
percent and 31 percent per annum respectively. Employment too has climbed and is now a
respectable 3 million. However, employment in the IT sector as a share of the total is
miniscule and concentrated in five or six urban centers. Exports of business services are less
than 3 percent of the global total. In other words, the performance in the past five years is
remarkable in the context of the Indian economy, but the sector is still fairly small and the
capability of the services sector as a whole does not extend much beyond software
application development and maintenance uàD§) and low value added processing services
ufinancial, legal, medical accounting and others). Call center services, professional services,
document entry and transcription, 14 and software maintenance activities dominate rather
than the design of computer architecture and operating systems. That this has been achieved
in a short span of time points to the latent capability which could evolve rapidly spurred by
the activities of India¶s homegrown firms such as TCS and Infosys as well as of §NCs which
are expanding their presence in India. Intel¶s largest chip design center is in Bangalore and
both IB§ and Cisco have opened major chip design facilities there as well, with
14 See ³Life on the Web¶s´ 2006.
35
China and India Reshape Global Industrial Geography

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à§D and TI planning to follow uàrora and Gambardella 2004; ³Big Players in Chip Design´
2006; D¶Costa 2006).

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INDIà CHINà
The history of science and technology in The history of science and technology in
India begins with prehistoric human china is both long and rich with many
flocking activity at §ehrgarh,in present contributions to science and technology.
day Pakistan and continues through the
Indus valley Civilization to early states
and empires.
Technological costs high Technological costs high
Better transportation àll business operations from Hong Kong
only.
Specialized in high end apparels and Casual and simple garments
handicrafts
Both small and large scale production §ajorly into large scale production
DEFENSE-
India¶s official military expenditure for Chinas military expenditure is estimated to
2006 is quoted at $22 billion by the be 80 billion $. However,the official
§inistry Of Finance Budgetu2006-07) Chinese government quote is a $30 billion
In 2006 Indias active military personnel military expenditure.
numbered over 1325000. Chinas active military personnel numbered
India¶s Navy is worlds 8th largest navy over 2255000.
with a fleet of 145 vessels consisting of Chinas navy with its fleet is quantitavly
missiles-capable warships,advanced larger but lacking in actual war experience.
submarines etc.

SPàCE RàCE
Indias successful launch of first moon China has been developing disruptive
mission ,the unmanned Chandrayaan-I technologies for nuclear ,space and cyber
marked a dramatic step forward in its warfare since way back
race with China.

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Indias market growth has been relatively Chinas mobile market has grown strongly
slow. over past 10 years.
However, mobile market growth has
picked up strongly. In 2006, 45.8 million · c c  c c c  c  c
mobile subscribers wree added that is  c c  -cc c  c
more than double the additions since  c  1 c c  c  c
2004. 
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