Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
John F. May
S.E.R. | « Études »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_ETU_4175_0441--the-role-of-population-
policies.htm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
John F. M ay
I
some of these interventions were authoritarian, even abusive.
This was the case in India with episodes of forced steriliza-
tions during the period known as the Emergency from 1975-
1977. As for China, in 1979 it adopted a very harsh policy
known as the one-child policy, which is still in force today
despite many exceptions. These serious infringements of
individual freedom provided additional arguments for oppo-
nents of any intervention on population and, especially, fer-
tility. These developments also led some demographers to
doubt the legitimacy of population policies while, moreover,
questioning their effectiveness.2 2. Jacques Vallin, “Faut-il
une politique de popula-
However, strong population growth will continue, t i on? ” Po p u l a t i o n e t
even if some countries experience a decline in their popula- Sociétés 489 (May 2012).
tion. Between now and the end of the century, the planet will
have to accommodate a number of people equivalent to more
than 40% of its current population. Nowadays there are also
new demographic challenges. These are the high fertility
II
A History of Population Policies
Population policies can be defined as actions taken explicitly
or implicitly by the authorities to predict, delay, or manage
imbalances between demographic changes, on the one hand,
and social, economic, environmental, and political objec-
5. May, World Population
Policies, 1-2. tives on the other.5 They are implemented by means of “polit-
ical levers,” namely the instruments or points of entry used
to obtain the changes desired. These instruments are access
to information, laws and regulations, taxation, subsidies and
6. May, World Population
Policies, 60.
investments, and finally the direct provision of services.6 For
example, vaccination programs are accompanied by infor-
mation campaigns, the vaccines are imported with no cus-
toms duties, and the services are subsidized by the authorities.
First and foremost, governments are responsible for
implementing population policies, sometimes entrusting
specific interventions to nongovernmental organizations
III
international organizations to turn to the problem of high
demographic growth and, this time, to consider implementing
programs specifically aimed at reducing high fertility.
The pioneering countries in this field were Japan and
India. In Japan, in the aftermath of the Second World War, the
leaders passed a law in 1948 known as eugenic protection,
which helped to accelerate the transition in fertility. India was
the first major country to officially implement a national pop-
ulation policy, adopted in 1952, whose stated aim was to reduce
fertility by making access to family-planning services easier.
However, the results of this policy were slow to appear, hence
the abuses already mentioned. Egypt was also concerned
about its population issue beginning in the 1950s, but only set
up an organized program to reduce fertility twenty-five or
thirty years later. As well as family planning, a few countries
tried other responses to population growth. Thus Indonesia,
with the support of the World Bank, launched a redistribution
Policies, 156.
It should be emphasized that these policies focused on
fertility did not succeed everywhere. In this regard, the com-
parison of Pakistan and Bangladesh is enlightening. A pro-
gram of medicalized family planning failed in Pakistan, even
though the population there was relatively more educated. In
Bangladesh (which was part of Pakistan until 1971), a more
innovative program with a strategy of door-to-door visits
produced good results, even though the socioeconomic situ-
ation was a priori more unfavorable. The emphasis initially
placed solely on family planning gradually gave way to a
much broader approach of human development, favoring
socioeconomic advances and the primacy of women’s educa-
tion. Moreover, the rise in influence of feminist ideas and
rejection of the abuses which several governments were
guilty of led international stakeholders (NGOs, activists,
8. These had already been
pressure groups) to emphasize individual rights.8 confirmed at the 1968
These two developments, that is, taking greater Tehran Conference (see
May, World Population
account of human development and an increased respect for Policies, 109).
human rights, merged in 1994 at the International Conference
on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo in what is
known as the Cairo Agenda, namely the promotion of “repro-
ductive health.” This agenda was not well defined, its
IV
priorities were not clear, and it was undoubtedly too ambi-
tious. It was not fully implemented, partly because of the lack
9. Today, it is estimated of funding, both at the national and international level.9
that 222 million women
do not have access to fam-
For their part, industrialized countries faced the chal-
ily-planning services. This lenges of low fertility (below 2.1 children per woman, the
is the reason for organizing level of generational replacement), an aging population, and
the London Summit in July
2012, at the instigation of international migration. In these countries, policies aimed at
the British Department for increasing fertility have had modest results. Although, on
International Development
and the Bill and Melinda
the whole, policies to increase the birth rate have succeeded
Gates Foundation, whose in increasing fertility at the margin, they have not led to a
goal was to mobilize new dramatic increase in the number of births. France may be an
funding.
exception: this country, which has followed a fairly consis-
tent probirth policy for almost a century now, has a fertility
rate (two children per woman) that is among the highest in
the European area. Policies to manage an aging population
have also only produced a few tangible results and attempts
to raise the retirement age have often come up against open
V
The Bucharest conference was followed ten years later
by the conference in Mexico, this time marked by a complete
reversal by the United States, which maintained that the
demographic factor was neutral for socioeconomic develop-
ment and promoted the market economy as a key element for
progress. The last major meeting devoted to demographic
questions was the already-mentioned Cairo ICPD. This
meeting was relatively more consensual than previous con-
ferences, despite the opposition of some traditionalist and
religious forces. It should be emphasized that the commit-
ments made during these conferences, often adopted in a cli-
10. In 1995 the Fourth
mate of optimism, are not always followed by tangible effects World Conference on
in the countries themselves. We saw this with the Cairo Wo m e n w a s h e l d i n
Agenda, whose implementation, we could say, left a lot to be Beijing, the inf luence of
which was similar to that
desired, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.10 of the Cairo Conference.
Around the same time, new institutions were created,
aimed at promoting family planning or dealing more gener-
VI
12. On the whole, family fell to fewer than three children per woman forty years later.12
planning programs helped Of course, women’s education and their entry into work
to reduce fertility by a pro-
portion that is estimated, which followed or accompanied the fall in fertility are also
depending on the country, factors that played an important role.13 We should also note
at between 0.5 and 1.5 chil-
dren per woman (interna-
the influence of changes in perception and attitude com-
tional empirical data). pared with traditional family norms. These are “ideational”
13. The rapid demographic
changes, or the diffusion of new ideas, often fueled by word
transformation of South of mouth as well as reinforced by the media (the case of nove-
Korea has been interpreted las or soap operas televised in Brazil).
by some experts as an “edu-
cational” transition, with
Finally, since 1945, enormous efforts, both national
improvements in the levels and international, have been made with regard to the collec-
of secondary and tertiary tion of population data. These efforts have helped to improve
educ at ion hav i ng led
to changes in couples’ the measurement of population growth. Population censuses
behavior. became more regular (every ten years). Consequently, exten-
sive programs of demographic surveys (most often every five
years) were also established. The largest is that of demo-
graphic and health surveys, funded by the United States and
14. See United Nations, tion policies.14 Finally, the increased availability of popula-
World Population Policies
2009 (New York: United tion projections, facilitated by the arrival of information
Nations, Department of technology, was also a decisive element in governments’
E conom ic a nd S ocia l
A f fa i rs, Popu lat ion
awareness of demographic issues. In this context, the United
Division, 2010). National Population Division prepares biennial demographic
projections, which are authoritative. Furthermore, every
year the same organization convenes the Commission on
Population and Development (created in 1946) in New York,
which analyzes a different theme every time.
VII
as the Sahel.15 About 38% of the global population lives in 15. Jean-Pierre Guengant
countries where fertility is between 4 and 2.1 children per and John F. May, “L’Afrique
subsaharienne dans la
woman (the replacement level). These countries should con- démographie mondiale,”
tinue their demographic transition, while ensuring that Études (October 2011):
305-316.
inequalities between the different sections of the population
are reduced, as well as those between men and women.
Finally, 46% of the global population lives in countries where
fertility is today below the replacement level. These countries
have to deal with problems of subfertility and an aging pop-
ulation, even of depopulation, sometimes in conjunction
with the crucial question of major immigration flows.
The United Nations predicts that the global popula-
tion could reach 10.1 billion inhabitants at the end of the cen-
tury, if fertility reaches about two children per woman in
2095-2100: this is the average assumed projection already
mentioned. However, a variation of half a point in this pre-
dicted fertility level, up or down, would give very different
VIII
to accommodate more immigrants, whose integration can
prove to be all the more difficult since the host population is
less numerous, less dynamic, and is aging rapidly.
These new demographic issues are emerging in an
international context that has also changed significantly in
the last two decades. First of all, the question of climate
change and environmental protection returns with increas-
ing persistence on the international scene, even if the demo-
graphic aspects are not sufficiently highlighted. The sudden
rise in grain prices, for example, is partly linked to global
warming, but it is also caused by substantial population
growth, as well as the appearance of mass biofuel production
and the desire of people in emerging countries to consume
more animal proteins (the animals most often being fed with
grain). Then the joint issues of poverty and inequality also
mobilize the international community. These problems have
a demographic dimension as well. The relationship between
C o n t r o v e r s y,”
In t e r n a t i o n a l Fa m i ly
Planning Perspectives 28,
their transition. What was known as the Arab Spring clearly
no. 1 (2002): 41-46. has a demographic aspect because of the often huge propor-
tion (more than 40%) of young people between the age of fif-
teen and twenty-four among adults aged fifteen or above.
These young people, most of whom have a certain level of
18. Among Islamic coun- education, demand jobs and a better future.18 Moreover, half
tries, Iran has experienced the world’s population lives in urban areas, the definition of
a dramatic fall in fertility,
which has gone from seven which varies, however, from country to country. In 2050,
to fewer than two children two-thirds of people will be city dwellers. This phenomenon
per woman between 1984
and 2006, that is, in only
is unfortunately accompanied by a growth in slums in major
twenty-two years; it is the cities in developing countries, which will urgently require
most rapid fall in fertility real urbanization policies.
ever recorded. See May,
World Population Policies, Finally, modern technologies, for example ultrasound
134. antenatal examination, also pose new and formidable dilem-
mas. This inexpensive technology makes it easier to choose
the sex of children, but unfortunately it too often leads to
selective abortions of girl fetuses. This produces serious sta-
tistical distortions in the balance between boys and girls.
China, for example, already has to cope with tens of millions
of young men who have little hope of being able to marry and
start a family.
IX
Development and Demography
Explicit or implicit population policies will largely determine
the future demographic development of human societies. The
acquisition of public goods and the degree to which objectives
to reduce poverty and inequalities are achieved will depend
on the results of these policies. Likewise, global food security
(and consequently malnutrition levels) will also depend on
the success of population policies, as half the targeted objec-
tives are linked to future fertility levels.19 Finally, achieving 19. Philippe Collomb,
Une Voie étroite pour la
the “Millennium Development Goals” (MDGs), adopted in sécurité alimentaire d’ici
2000 and most of which contribute towards results in terms of à 2050 (Rome/Pa ris:
United Nations Food and
population, or which depend on these, is also closely linked to Agriculture Organization
the effectiveness of population policies or their absence. (FAO) & E c onom ic a ,
It appears that the main challenge for these policies in 1999).
X
Population policies contribute to achieving global
objectives, but they are not a goal in themselves. However,
governments sometimes believe that they can leave popula-
tion questions to one side and achieve their socioeconomic
development objectives by other means (for example, via edu-
cating women alone). They often feel that it is difficult to deal
with demographic questions head on because of human
rights, cultural and religious barriers, or political conse-
quences. Nevertheless, there will always be a need for popula-
tion policies because one cannot ignore demographic issues.
It seems, then, that, far from being overtaken, population pol-
icies are more important and more necessary than ever.
John F. May
governments.
XI