Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Urbanisation 2.0:
emphasising quality
of life
November 2018
There is an opportunity for our cities to do so much more than just ‘keep pace’ with population
growth and urbanisation. We explore the possibilities that lie beyond providing the bare necessities
that facilitate a productive economy, focusing on delivering infrastructure that improves the
liveability, sustainability and social value of our cities. We highlight digital infrastructure, distributed
healthcare, turning waste to value and better utilising public transport as key areas where the
private sector can contribute meaningfully to improving the quality of life of urban residents.
It is opportunity which is driving the global movement of will be added to urban areas by 2050, with close to 90 per
people from rural areas to towns and cities. This is transforming cent of this increase taking place in Asia and Africa.1
our cities and driving the need for better infrastructure to However, it is a mistake to think of urbanisation as being the
protect and enhance quality of life. preserve of the developing world.
Employment opportunities in cities are one of the main In fact, it’s the world’s most affluent countries that are
attractions, together with the quality of healthcare, education continuing to push the limits of urbanisation. (Figure 1).
and cultural assets. In developing countries, urbanisation often
takes place with greater urgency due to broader factors such as The issues confronting citizens and policymakers in major
poverty, poor living conditions and environmental changes. developed cities such as New York, London, Paris, Los Angeles,
Hong Kong, Sydney and Melbourne are of a profoundly
The momentum of urbanisation shows no signs of abating as different nature to those faced by their emerging countries’
the United Nations estimates that another 2.5 billion people counterparts.
Figure 1: High-income countries are the most urbanised and are still becoming more urbanised
Urban Population (% of total )
Australia
Brazil
United Kingdom
United States
80 Mexico
Malaysia
70
60
China
Indonesia
50 Nigeria
Philippines
Egypt
40
India
30
20
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017
The essentials of modern living ranging from housing, clean these essentials both in an efficient and cost effective way,
water, reliable energy provision, universal healthcare and and also with an eye on what the future needs may be.
education, and functioning transport systems have been
Approaching the issue in a Maslow’s hierarchy of needs manner,
in place in high-income countries and their cities for many
policymakers in wealthy countries must first protect these basic
decades. However, we operate in an environment of constant
tenets of socioeconomic development from degrading on a
growth. For instance, in Australia alongside persistent
per capita basis as urban populations grow. It is only then that
urbanisation, the total population has doubled from 12.5
the quest for the next stage of improvements in quality of life
million in 1970 to approximately 25 million today. Countries
(“Urbanisation 2.0”) can begin (Figure 2).
and cities are increasingly feeling the pressure to provide
Eco living
Culture
To ensure
Source: Cies ofcitizens
Opportunityof developed nations continue to see Further, climate change and the drive to decarbonisation
improvements in quality of life within increasingly urbanised continue to influence peoples’ views on how cities should be
cities, urban infrastructure must sufficiently address and developed. Concerns regarding air quality in large Chinese
then move beyond the basic needs of society to focus cities have resulted in urgent changes to how regions are
explicitly on improving quality of life. Without this building planned, supported by a ‘Three-year Action Plan for Winning
block progression toward Urbanisation 2.0, the benefits of the Blue Sky War’.
urbanisation relative to a decentralised model may never be
When talking about managing urbanisation, infrastructure
fully realised.
owners and asset operators need to be front and centre in these
Many major cities find themselves part way down the path conversations and contribute actionable ideas.
of Urbanisation 2.0. New York, Sydney and Melbourne come
That said, the topic is so vast that libraries of books are required to
to mind as cities that are increasingly focussed on developing
address them fully. Rather than going down that path, our aim is to
their cultural assets and liveability. However, by increasing
make the topic more manageable by confining this paper to four
their attractiveness as destinations, the task of maintaining
specific areas; rolling out digital infrastructure, distributed healthcare,
appropriate levels of basic infrastructure becomes increasingly
turning waste to value, and better utilising public transport.
challenging. It is a process that requires delicate balance.
We address each in turn below.
Figure 3: Digital infrastructure adds intelligence to the urban world and uses it to solve problems and achieve a higher quality of life
ever more efficient logistics networks, placing competitive Citizens feel connected to … Jobs Citizen expenditures
… their local community 1–3%
pressure on every link in the supply chain to utilise technology 15 p.p.
Formal
employment
1–3%
to drive down cost and improve outcomes for customers. … their local
government
25 p.p.
The world will gallop into the next decade with advances
in cloud computing, big data, and open data. 50 billion
devices will be connected through machine-to-machine
communication, fostering the industrialisation of the Internet. Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Intel predicts that in a decade, the Internet of Things will be a
US$1.5 trillion-a-year business—just from a technology point Under Urbanisation 2.0, digital infrastructure is the new hard
of view. But on top of that there will be another US$2 trillion power. But its limits have been constantly challenged and tested.
annually in new services.5
Some statistics are worth contemplating. Worldwide spending
Data use globally is growing exponentially. In Australia, some
on infrastructure and construction is about US$2.5 trillion a
2.5 Exabyte of data were generated in any given day in 2015
year, and Information and Communications Technology (ICT)
– more data than was generated in total by humanity up
spending is less than 1.5 percent of that.9 Estimates suggest
until 2014.6 Globally, data creation is forecast to reach 160
that the US economy as a whole is reaching only 18 per cent
Zettabytes by 2025, up from around 30 Zettabytes today.
of its digital potential due to an uneven degree of digitalisation
In 2025, more than 25% of data created will be real-time in
across the sectors.10 That’s a remarkable finding given the
nature, and real-time Internet of Things data will make up
US’ status as the world‘s pre-eminent technologically
more than 95% of this.7
advanced nation.
The potential global annual GDP value of the Internet of Things
is estimated to be around A$11 trillion: some A$120b per
annum for the Australian economy by 2025.8
Figure 5: Longer lifespans are to be celebrated, but will also require greater financial resources 14
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Health Spending Per Capita AUS Total Health Spending Per Capita UK Total Health Spending Per Capita US
Total GDP Per Capita AUS Total GDP Per Capita UK Total GDP Per Capita US
Source: Population ageing and rising inequality will hit younger generations hard. OECD. 2017.
Being born in a wealthy country is a wonderful stroke of luck, Regions where living standards are high (such as OECD
akin to a lottery win. There aren’t too many downsides to countries) produce greater amounts of waste in kg/capita-day,
growing up in a high-income country. One of the few negatives is while less-developed countries such as those in the South Asian
the amount of waste generated. Region (SAR) present lower waste generation levels per capita.
Furthermore, within each single region, there can be large
Studies have revealed the magnitude of the relationship
variations of waste production depending on local conditions
between waste generation per capita and countries’ living
and specific dynamics.19
standards (Figure 6 and 7).
Canada
0.1 Germany
Turkey United Kingdom
0.15
Mexico Japan
0.1 China Russia
South Korea
Nigeria Brazil
0.05 Poland
Indonesia
0.0 India
Region Total urban Total urban Urban MSW* In Australia, even with increasing recycling, landfilling remains
population MSW* generation by far the most utilised solution for waste disposal, despite
(millions) Generation per capita being the least desirable waste management practice. Australia
(tonnes/day) (kg/day) currently sends around 23 million tonnes of urban waste to
Africa 261 169 120 0.65 landfill: the breakdown state by state is shown in Figure 8.22
East Asia &
777 738 959 0.95
Pacific
Figure 8: Waste to landfill in Australia
Eastern &
227 254 389 1.12
Central Asia
0.28 m tpa (2010-11)
Latin America
400 437 545 1.09
& Caribbean
4.8 m tpa (2013-14)
Middle East & 4.1 m tpa (2013-14)
162 173 545 1.07
North Africa
OECD 729 1 566 286 2.15
South Asia 426 192 411 0.45
5.9 m tpa (2010-11)
Total 2 982 3 532 255 1.19
0.25 m tpa (2014-15)
*MSW is “Municipal solid waste,” and broadly defined as wastes consisting
4.5 m tpa (2014-15)
of everyday items such as product packaging, grass clippings, furniture, 3.4 m tpa (2012-13)
clothing, bottles and cans, food scraps, newspapers, appliances, consumer
electronics, and batteries. 0.42 m tpa (2010-11)
Source: Hoornweg & Bhada-Tata (2012) from Waste to energy, World Energy
Council, World Energy Resources 2016 https://www.worldenergy.org/wp- Source: Energy from Waste in Australia — is there a future? By Dr Ron
content/uploads/2017/03/WEResources_Waste_to_Energy_2016.pdf Wainberg, Technical Director, MRA Consulting Group, 14 March, 2016
OECD countries today produce around half of the world’s Rather than scouring the country for evermore landfill sites,
urban waste, which will nearly double by 2025 to over 6 turning waste to value in ways that go beyond traditional
million tonnes of waste per day. Disconcertingly, global waste recycling methods represents a largely untapped opportunity
generation rates are not expected to peak even by the end of for many developed countries.
the 21st century, while OECD countries will reach ‘peak waste’
by 2050.21 Waste to energy (WtE) by thermally treating waste recovers the
valuable energy stored within these materials. Using waste to
Until January of this year, many developed countries had produce energy can offset the community’s use of other, non-
shifted part of this burden onto China. For years, China had renewable energy sources.
accepted container ships from the developed world carrying
scrap paper, plastics and metals for recycling and reuse. Under WtE plants reduce the volume of processed waste up to 90
their ‘National Sword’ policy, implemented in early 2018, China percent, effectively preventing the expansion of landfills.23
stopped accepting waste imports, placing pressure on many The decline in available space for landfilling is an increasing issue
developed countries to invest in appropriate levels of waste in many countries around the world, making WtE technologies
processing infrastructure. a solution to this pressing concern of increasing waste
streams and reduced space for disposal. The land saved could
For the time being, much of the waste previously destined for successfully be used for housing and other economically
China has been delivered to other parts of Asia, to countries productive activities or just left unutilised for nature
without proper waste facilities, resulting in damage to the conservation.
environment. It is likely that these countries will soon follow
the example set by China, increasing pressure on developed
nations to develop the capability to process their own waste.
30
25
20
Billion Dollars
15
10
0
Years 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
2.1 2.8 4.34 4.9 7 8.4 9.1 11.9 13.3 14.7 16.1 18.2 20.3 22.4 24.5 26.6
Source: Ouda & Raza (2014) in Waste to energy, World Energy Council, World Energy Resources 2016
Waste-to-energy is an important part of the European waste This example illustrates how WtE also provides a way
industry. Significant demand for heat means efficient and tightly of connecting the waste sector to the energy sector. Waste
controlled waste incinerators are common. materials, which originally have been used as specific products
for societal needs, can be used for a second purpose: as a
Australia, by comparison, lacks an established market,
useful energy resource.
community knowledge and understanding remains low with
policymakers being slower than their European counterparts WtE can also contribute to reducing Australia’s greenhouse
in developing frameworks to encourage the industry’s gas impact.
development.
Emissions from landfill facilities produces around 15 million
Signs of change, though, are emerging at both the Federal and tonnes of carbon pollution every year, equivalent to three
State levels signalling perhaps a growing interest in waste-to- per cent of the country’s emissions. Without action to reduce
energy and waste-to-fuels. The NSW Government, for instance, emissions, a tonne of standard municipal solid waste will continue
announced the extension of the Waste Less, Recycle More to release about 1.2 tonnes of carbon pollution in landfill.29
initiative with a further A$337 million over four years from
This is especially important as decomposition in landfill creates
2017-21.26
methane, a greenhouse gas with a warming potential 25 times
In Western Australia, a project at Kwinana will convert that of carbon dioxide. Technology already exists for capturing
household, commercial and industrial waste into enough and converting landfill gases to energy, but waste-to-fuel is a
energy to power up to 50,000 homes through a A$668 million complementary measure that limits landfill in the first instance.
renewable energy project.27
Incineration Electricity
Thermochemical
Gasification Gas for Fuel
Processes
Fermentation Ethanol
Biochemical
Processes
Anaerobic
Biogas
Digestion
Figure 12: Highlights of social value results from Melbourne’s tram network
It is essential that policymakers, infrastructure asset owners The Latrobe Hospital in Victoria, and Port Macquarie
and investors seek to make public transport better utilised Base Hospital in New South Wales, later reverted back
as part of integrated systems meeting the challenges of to the governments. On the heels of such experiences,
increasing urbanisation. governments retreated to a model where a PPP is used for
the asset, and the public sector delivers core services.
DELIVERING NEW INFRASTRUCTURE WITH However, more recent examples have proven that the
PRIVATE INVESTMENT full-service model can be successful where an appropriate
value-for-money solution is found. Joondalup Health Campus
Infrastructure as a private asset class has matured
in Perth’s northern suburbs is a full-service PPP, and is
significantly over the past decade, with increasing amounts
widely considered to be one of Australia’s best examples
of capital allocated to it by institutional investors.
of a successful healthcare PPP. The Western Australian
There are a multitude of ways for private investors to partner Government pays the private operator to maintain and
with the public sector to deliver the infrastructure required run the facility, which is administered under a ‘build, own,
to ensure quality of life continues to improve in the face of operate and transfer’ model.
urbanisation.
Such successful examples should encourage opportunities to
Private infrastructure investment, fundamentally, is expand the scope of infrastructure PPPs to include a broader
simply an alternative procurement model whereby better range of healthcare and public transport services, as they
outcomes and risk transfer can potentially be achieved. offer the possibility of increasing the efficiency and quality of
Independent research in Australia has found that Public public service delivery, while also driving efficiency into the
Private Partnerships (PPPs) offer substantial construction cost operating expenses of governments.
and time savings, compared to both traditional and alliance
Developing a mixed market of providers also opens up more
contracting.56
possibilities for innovation in service delivery and allows public
Key to a successful PPP is to approach it not as a way of and private provision to be benchmarked against one another.
taking capital expenditure off a nation's or state’s
balance sheet, but rather to optimise a value-for-money
solution.
This Red Paper is the result of a collaboration of the following people: Ross Israel, Matina Papathanasiou, Kirsten Whitehead,
Wade MacRae, Albert Daniels, Caroline Nowacki, Hong Fan, Turab Bajwa.
1 68% of the world population projected to live in urban areas by 2050, says UN. 26 Waste less, recycle more. NSW Environment Protection Authority on behalf of
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 16 May 2018 https:// NSW Government. October 2016. https://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/publications/
www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/2018-revision-of-world- recyclereuse/waste-less-recycle-more-2017-21-brochure-160538
urbanization-prospects.html
27 Green light for $668m Kwinana waste-to-energy plant. The West Australian, 18
2 Digital globalization: the new era of global flows. James Manyika, Susan Lund, October 2018. https://thewest.com.au/business/energy/green-light-for-668m-
Jacques Bughin, Jonathan Woetzel, Kalin Stamenov, and Dhruv Dhingra. McKinsey kwinana-waste-to-energy-plant-ng-b88994856z
& Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-
28 Ibid
insights/digital-globalization-the-new-era-of-global-flows
29 Waste to energy for a low emissions future. 26 April 2018 by Waste Management
3 The smart city solution. Wim Elfrink. October 2012. McKinsey & Company
Review. http://wastemanagementreview.com.au/waste-energy-low-emissions-future/
4 Beyond budgets: the real solution to the global infrastructure gap. Ross Love, Alex
30 Explainer: why we should be turning waste into fuel. The Conversation 19 May 2017.
Macoun, and Glenn Goldsmith. BCG, 20 November 2014. https://www.bcg.com/
publications/2014/public-sector-urban-infrastructure-budgets-solution-global- 31 Energy from waste in Australia — is there a future? By Dr Ron Wainberg, op cit
infrastructure-gap.aspx
32 Energy from Waste Market Report, Clean Energy Finance Corporation, 2016
5 The smart city solution. McKinsey & Company
33 This section draws from Waste to energy conversation routes, Salman Zafar, 18 July
6 Tomorrows Digitally Enabled Workforce. Megatrends and scenarios for jobs and 2018. https://www.bioenergyconsult.com/waste-to-energy-pathways/
employment in Australia over the coming twenty years. Stefan Hajkowicz, Andrew
34 Road congestion in Australia, Australian Automobile Association, October 2018.
Reeson, Lachlan Rudd, Alexandra Bratanova, Leonie Hodgers, Claire Mason, Naomi
https://www.aaa.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AAA-Congestion-Report-
Boughen. CSIRO, January 2016.
2018-FINAL.pdf
7 Data Age 2025, IDC. 2017.
35 Ibid
8 Submission to the Australian and Media Authority. Future use of the 1.5 ghz and 3.6
36 Ibid
ghz bands. Communications Alliance. November 2016. http://www.commsalliance.
com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/55675/SSWG-response-to-ACMA-1-5-GHz- 37 Trends: Transport and Australia’s Development to 2040 and Beyond. Australian
and-3-6-GHz-initial-investigation.pdf Government: Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development 2016
https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/publications/files/Trends_to_2040.pdf
9 The smart city solution. McKinsey & Company
38 Future Cities and Regions, Population and Public Transport, Infrastructure Australia, 2018.
10 Digital America: A tale of the haves and have-mores. James Manyika, Sree
Ramaswamy, Somesh Khanna, Hugo Sarrazin, Gary Pinkus, Guru Sethupathy, and 39 Global Traffic Scorecard. INRIX. 2018
Andrew Yaffe. McKinsey & Company. December 2015, https://www.mckinsey.com/
40 The economic consequences of outdoor air pollution. Policy Highlights. OECD.
industries/high-tech/our-insights/digital-america-a-tale-of-the-haves-and-have-mores
https://www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/Policy-
11 Digital globalization: the new era of global flows. McKinsey & Company Highlights-Economic-consequences-of-outdoor-air-pollution-web.pdf
12 The smart city solution. McKinsey & Company 41 Ibid
13 Health indicators. Life expectancy. OECD, http://www.oecd.org/berlin/47570143.pdf 42 Ibid
14 Population ageing and rising inequality will hit younger generations hard. OECD. 2017. 43 Ibid
15 OECD Databank 44 Mobility as a service. Putting transport front and center of the conversation. CUBIC
Transportation Systems
16 Public hospital bed crisis: too few or too misused? Ian A. Scott MBBS, FRACP, MHA,
MEd, Associate Professor, Director of Internal Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology. 45 Trends: Transport and Australia’s Development to 2040 and Beyond. Australian
Princess Alexandra Hospital, Ipswich Road, Brisbane, QLD 4102, Australia. CSIRO Government: Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development 2016
Publishing. Published 25 August 2010. Australian Health Review 34(3) 317-324
46 Ibid
https://doi.org/10.1071/AH09821
47 Ibid
17 Reform of the Federation White Paper. Roles and Responsibilities in Health. ISSUES
PAPER 3 December 2014. https://ahha.asn.au/sites/default/files/docs/policy-issue/ 48 Resilient infrastructure cities. Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability at the
rotf_issues_paper_3_-_roles_and_responsibilities_in_health.pdf Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute in Perth, Australia.
18 Public-private partnerships in hospital innovation: what lessons for hospital 49 Voices of infrastructure. Smart cities: turning opportunity into reality. McKinsey &
management? Faïz Gallouj, Céline Merlin-Brogniart, Anne-Catherine Provost. Company, Global Infrastructure Initiative, December 2017.
Research Report] University Lille 1, CLERSE. 2010. https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
50 Transport facts & figures. European Commission, http://ec.europa.eu/transport/
hal-01111793/document
strategies/facts-and-figures/transport-matters/index_en.htm
19 Waste to energy, World Energy Council, World Energy Resources 2016 https://
51 The NSW state infrastructure strategy 2018-2023. 18 March 2018.
www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/WEResources_Waste_to_
Energy_2016.pdf 52 Impact of the night tube on London’s night-time economy. Volterra Partners,
https://volterra.co.uk/impact-of-the-night-tube-on-londons-night-time-economy/
20 Waste to energy, World Energy Council, World Energy Resources 2016 https://
www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/WEResources_Waste_to_ 53 An economic, environmental and social analysis of Melbourne’s tram network.
Energy_2016.pdf Keolis Downer
21 Ibid 54 Ibid
22 Energy from Waste in Australia — is there a future? By Dr Ron Wainberg, Technical 55 Living Liveable. The impact of the Liveable Neighbourhoods Policy on the health
Director, MRA Consulting Group, 14 March, 2016 and wellbeing of Perth residents. The University of Western Australia. Centre for
the Built Environment and Health. 23 October 2015. http://www.see.uwa.edu.au/
23 Ibid
research/cbeh/projects/reside2
24 Waste to energy, World Energy Council, World Energy Resources 2016 https://
56 A submission on the future directions for Public Private Partnerships. Infrastructure
www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/WEResources_Waste_to_
Partnerships Australia. March 2013. http://infrastructure.org.au/wp-content/
Energy_2016.pdf
uploads/2017/06/IPA-Submission-to-Victorian-PPP-Review-final.pd
25 Ibid
57 Ibid
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